politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The first of Lord Ashcroft’s weekly phone polls has CON 2%

DavidL said:

Does anyone know the timing on ICM? I want to go for my tea.

This evening, I'm expecting it soonish

New Statesman - where the '48 Hours to see a GP' is going to be paid from:

Labour figures have begun the tough work of considering which taxes, most obviously National Insurance, they could raise in order to sustain a free, universal NHS.

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/05/miliband-puts-nhs-centre-stage-new-gp-guarantee

JackW said:

Latest ARSE 2015 General Election Projection Countdown :

26 hours 26 minutes 26 seconds

My memory must be playing tricks. I thought it was 1 day, 1 hour 1 second this morning?

Or are you having to recalculate?

Edit: I am not as senile as I thought:

8:59AM



Latest ARSE 2015 General Election Projection Countdown :

1 day 1 minute 1 second

On topic, it's clearly poor value to bet on Labour winning most votes in the Euros at current odds of 3/1. Personally, I doubt they will get anything like 30%. If they're at parity, or behind, in Westminster VI, the idea of them doubling their vote on 2009 levels is just lunacy. I can't see any path to them polling top in the Euros. Particularly given the likely low turnout and that it'd require them to transfer almost all their current Westminster VI % share into the Euros.

Plenty of their natural supporters simply won't vote. A chunk of those that do will leak to No2EU, Socialist Labour and Green. A lot will lend their votes to UKIP. My best guess is in the 21-24% bracket.

It's possible that Conservatives and Labour will be close to each other in polling - say 21% to 23% - with Labour just narrowly edging it. UKIP will probably spill out within the 26-29% bracket.

CarlottaVance said:

New Statesman - where the '48 Hours to see a GP' is going to be paid from:

Labour figures have begun the tough work of considering which taxes, most obviously National Insurance, they could raise in order to sustain a free, universal NHS.

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/05/miliband-puts-nhs-centre-stage-new-gp-guarantee

Well given my surgery regularly post figures of over 200 missed appointments a month. Perhaps Labour want to tackle that before asking me to pay vast extra sums in tax to allow others to waste my GP's time etc.

[48 Hours to see a GP]

It's up there with the gas bills. I must say though that I liked Ed M's beer belly. Reports of Ed M not being a human have been greatly exaggerated.

Interesting to see Labour are back in third place in Newark in terms of betting odds. I could never understand why they were second favourites in the first place.

Casino_Royale said:

saddened said:

Alanbrooke said:

saddened said:

Congratulations to the English Democrats PPB, the first one of the year to have me shouting at the TV. Mindless fecking Muppets.

did they have an image of a cat and a 3 inch Nick Clegg too ?

No It was Spitfires and War memorials that set me off. No necked dullards the lot of them.

I just saw that PPB. It was embarrassing. It's shockingly amateur, both in content and quality. It looks like it's been made by the sort of overenthusiastic youtube user that trawls the site regularly posting comments underneath the videos.

Al Murray couldn't produce a better spoof if he tried. If they gather anything more than a tiny handful of votes, I'd be astounded.

I read your entire piece as if you were refferring to the Labour PPB !

antifrank said:

Our host does Electoral Calculus a bit of an injustice. Their model builds in an allowance for Lib Dem resilience:

http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/strongmodel.html

It's worth noting that uniform national swing simply doesn't work when drops in support are as steep as those that the Lib Dems are apparently suffering. I took a detailed look at this here:

http://newstonoone.blogspot.co.uk/2014/04/the-hunt-for-2010-lib-dems-part-1.html

The consequence is that the Lib Dems will struggle to get the seats that uniform national swing implies on a given poll rating. They will need to get more votes to hold on in more seats (thus driving up the poll rating).

Indeed. Evidence from all sorts of elections shows that the Lib Dem absolute come-hell-or-high-water core vote is about 2% so if they're at 9% nationally, any seats where they were sub-16% last time (which is quite a lot) cannot drop by UNS because there simply aren't enough votes to start with. So the lack of drop there has to be offset by a greater vote in the seats where they were 16%+ last time.

Now, it might be that most of this comes from middling-performance seats, where they're not the incumbents or in close contention (i.e. those they're working hard). That, however, would imply some massive drops, from say 30% to 3-5% - especially if they record lower-than-average drops in their top band.

I'm not sure that's credible. Indeed, the evidence from Scotland, where the Lib Dems suffered a near-wipeout in 2011, suggests that the biggest swings came in the constituencies where they had *most* votes beforehand (they did hold a greater proportion of their shares in these seats but that's little consolation).

There comes a point where local resilience is overwhelmed by national performance. At 9%, I think the Lib Dems would struggle to hold half their seats and could quite possibly end up with fewer. That said, I do think they'll put on vote share come the campaign and won't end up quite that low.

RodCrosby said:

CarlottaVance said:

RodCrosby said:

SeanT said:

After all the sneering and jeering, let it be noted that Rod Crosby is owed a big apology from his detractors. I know that I will look at his predictions with renewed interest.

Sneer and jeer all you like. I'll enjoy May 8th 2015 just as much as I enjoyed May 7th 2010...

(^_-)

How will you be feeling on September 19th?

I'd hazard Yes do better than the polls are stating.

Ah, but which polls?

We've heard plausible theories for both shy 'No' and un-polled 'Yes' voters - but I guess we'll find out soon enough!

Sean_F said:

AndyJS said:

The agony for the Tories is that they're heading for a popular vote win with almost no chance of an overall majority. But this is the system they love so much.

But, the system serves them well (if not as well as Labour). Their share of seats almost always exceeds their share of the vote - and it works to depress support for right wing rivals.

If we had PR, then the Conservatives would have to go into government with UKIP, and I think many of them would baulk at that.

Or Labour.

Were there PR introduced for 2015, I don't think the Conservatives would be at all worried about a coalition with UKIP. The scrutiny of office applied to the Purples might do the Tories no harm at all, while the government could get on with a centre-right agenda.

DavidL said:

CarlottaVance said:

DavidL said:

I want to go for my tea.

A true Scot!

The English had their 'tea' hours ago, and are thinking of 'dinner' (unless they had that at lunchtime....) or supper.....

Right now I would eat anything. I am trying hard to lose weight for the first time in my life and it is deeply unpleasant. Come on ICM.

You could always allow yourself an infinite number of low calorie snacks. Citrus fruits are a popular choice.

FrancisUrquhart said:

Didn't Blair promise 48hrs to see a GP, and it caused all sorts of issues as everybody is going to demand that it is urgent and want to be seen today / tomorrow, when there many cases where it is not required.

Other way round -- the problem Blair created was that patients were stopped from making appointments *more than* 48 hours in advance, to have stitches removed, for instance, or for any follow-up visits or chronic conditions.

david_herdson said:

antifrank said:

Our host does Electoral Calculus a bit of an injustice. Their model builds in an allowance for Lib Dem resilience:

http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/strongmodel.html

It's worth noting that uniform national swing simply doesn't work when drops in support are as steep as those that the Lib Dems are apparently suffering. I took a detailed look at this here:

http://newstonoone.blogspot.co.uk/2014/04/the-hunt-for-2010-lib-dems-part-1.html

The consequence is that the Lib Dems will struggle to get the seats that uniform national swing implies on a given poll rating. They will need to get more votes to hold on in more seats (thus driving up the poll rating).

Indeed. Evidence from all sorts of elections shows that the Lib Dem absolute come-hell-or-high-water core vote is about 2% so if they're at 9% nationally, any seats where they were sub-16% last time (which is quite a lot) cannot drop by UNS because there simply aren't enough votes to start with. So the lack of drop there has to be offset by a greater vote in the seats where they were 16%+ last time.

Now, it might be that most of this comes from middling-performance seats, where they're not the incumbents or in close contention (i.e. those they're working hard). That, however, would imply some massive drops, from say 30% to 3-5% - especially if they record lower-than-average drops in their top band.

I'm not sure that's credible. Indeed, the evidence from Scotland, where the Lib Dems suffered a near-wipeout in 2011, suggests that the biggest swings came in the constituencies where they had *most* votes beforehand (they did hold a greater proportion of their shares in these seats but that's little consolation).

There comes a point where local resilience is overwhelmed by national performance. At 9%, I think the Lib Dems would struggle to hold half their seats and could quite possibly end up with fewer. That said, I do think they'll put on vote share come the campaign and won't end up quite that low.

I'm predicting 19-31 seats for the LD if their at 10%.

CarlottaVance said:

ToryJim said:

CarlottaVance said:

New Statesman - where the '48 Hours to see a GP' is going to be paid from:

Labour figures have begun the tough work of considering which taxes, most obviously National Insurance, they could raise in order to sustain a free, universal NHS.

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/05/miliband-puts-nhs-centre-stage-new-gp-guarantee

Well given my surgery regularly post figures of over 200 missed appointments a month. Perhaps Labour want to tackle that before asking me to pay vast extra sums in tax to allow others to waste my GP's time etc.

Of course charging people for missed appointments would be wicked.......

Edit, removed bit I couldn't find evidence for.

People are getting older and sicker, and nobody wants their hospital to shut. What do you expect.

My GP has a system where all patients get a call back from their GP to talk before an appointment is made. Lots of people just need reassurance or a new prescription, those who want an appointment get one that day. It's great.

DecrepitJohnL said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Didn't Blair promise 48hrs to see a GP, and it caused all sorts of issues as everybody is going to demand that it is urgent and want to be seen today / tomorrow, when there many cases where it is not required.

Other way round -- the problem Blair created was that patients were stopped from making appointments *more than* 48 hours in advance, to have stitches removed, for instance, or for any follow-up visits or chronic conditions.

Not according to this, which is how I remember the policy

http://www.onmedica.com/newsArticle.aspx?id=82c6906f-e7b1-4f1c-b6e9-e9c9b820ea7c

FrancisUrquhart said:

Patients promised online GP booking by 2015 (21 May 2012)

Patients in England will be able to book GP appointments and get test results online within three years, ministers are promising.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-18143082

Do we know if this is on target?

No, that target has been dropped by the government.

Stuart_Dickson said:

Iain Martin: This referendum will change the Union for ever

I hoped we would not be here. My personal preference was always for the Union as it was and the old pre-devolution model of the UK, which seemed to work well enough for almost 300 years. Athough I admired John Smith’s other attributes, his devolution scheme seemed likely to make the end of the Union more likely. But devolution cannot now be undone; it has its own remorseless logic.

As a result, there is an urgent need for those in London and other parts of the (for now) United Kingdom to start thinking seriously about the consequences of either a break-up or a No vote. September’s referendum and its aftermath will impact not only on Scotland. Whatever the result, we are all going to feel its effects.

http://www.standard.co.uk/comment/iain-martin-this-referendum-will-change-the-union-for-ever-9355949.html

I completely agree with that. Even if Scotland votes no as I hope it will be changed from this experience and the old ways of doing things will no longer do. I expect us to move to a more federal structure with far greater fiscal autonomy north of the border. Whether that will prove good or ill for Scotland is hard to say but the current situation is not sustainable.

And I don't think I would have thought or said that 6 months ago.

david_herdson said:

antifrank said:

Our host does Electoral Calculus a bit of an injustice. Their model builds in an allowance for Lib Dem resilience:

http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/strongmodel.html

It's worth noting that uniform national swing simply doesn't work when drops in support are as steep as those that the Lib Dems are apparently suffering. I took a detailed look at this here:

http://newstonoone.blogspot.co.uk/2014/04/the-hunt-for-2010-lib-dems-part-1.html

The consequence is that the Lib Dems will struggle to get the seats that uniform national swing implies on a given poll rating. They will need to get more votes to hold on in more seats (thus driving up the poll rating).

....There comes a point where local resilience is overwhelmed by national performance. At 9%, I think the Lib Dems would struggle to hold half their seats and could quite possibly end up with fewer. That said, I do think they'll put on vote share come the campaign and won't end up quite that low.

We are not seeing an uplift in the LD support in all the polls during this campaign. Very ominous.

saddened said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Didn't Blair promise 48hrs to see a GP, and it caused all sorts of issues as everybody is going to demand that it is urgent and want to be seen today / tomorrow, when there many cases where it is not required.

Other way round -- the problem Blair created was that patients were stopped from making appointments *more than* 48 hours in advance, to have stitches removed, for instance, or for any follow-up visits or chronic conditions.

Not according to this, which is how I remember the policy

http://www.onmedica.com/newsArticle.aspx?id=82c6906f-e7b1-4f1c-b6e9-e9c9b820ea7c

No -- Labour's 48-hour guarantee had the unintended side-effect of stopping patients making longer-term appointments. You might remember Tony Blair being mystified when challenged by a studio audience about this.

Dan Sabbagh ‏@dansabbagh 1m

Support for Labour drops six points as Tories take lead in latest ICM poll >> http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/may/12/support-labour-drops-tories-lead-guardian-icm-poll … Con 33 Lab 31...

Well its official the tories are in the lead.
Though a Labour drop of 6 and a rise of UKIP of 4 is baffling. No events to cause such a thing but the euros.

TCPoliticalBetting said:

We are not seeing an uplift in the LD support in all the polls during this campaign. Very ominous.

Or totally predictable. LDs haven't started yet - a perfectly rational decision. 6 months before GE2015 is where the action starts.

FUCKING HELLFIRE: TORIES IN THE LEAD WITH ICM

Support for Labour drops six points as Tories take lead in latest ICM poll
Labour support falls to 31%, Conservatives rise one point to 33%, Lib Dems are up one on 13% and Ukip rises four to 15%

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/may/12/support-labour-drops-tories-lead-guardian-icm-poll

FrancisUrquhart said:

Patients promised online GP booking by 2015 (21 May 2012)

Patients in England will be able to book GP appointments and get test results online within three years, ministers are promising.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-18143082

Do we know if this is on target?

Well down here in darkest Sussex we have been able to do it for quite some while and I would guess the software came off a shelf from somewhere. So if we rural types can do it I can't imagine why those in the big smoke and elsewhere cannot.

Doesn't help with the "problem" of people failing to turn up for the appointments they have booked, mind. There were 71 such people in April at my local GPs I noticed when I was in there this morning. How much of a problem people not turning up actually is, would appear to be a matter of perception. It doesn't cost any money as the quack is going to be there anyway, it does mean that people who wanted appointments couldn't get them. On the other hand the physician has that time he can use to talk to patients who need it, make phone calls etc.. Furthermore, years ago my kidney specialist confided to me that it was only people not turning up that allowed his department to actually function, he relied on a 10% no-show rate.

Down at the Eye Hospital they have a savage policy. If you fail to turn up for an appointment then they just take you off their books and you have to start all over again with your GP. I don't know if that is necessary but it is the most fearsomely efficient NHS place I have ever been to.

Scott_P said:

Support for Labour drops six points as Tories take lead in latest ICM poll
Labour support falls to 31%, Conservatives rise one point to 33%, Lib Dems are up one on 13% and Ukip rises four to 15%

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/may/12/support-labour-drops-tories-lead-guardian-icm-poll

Ok....that counts as a "cross over"...

The trend is your friend.

Unless you are Ed Miliband. The Billy No-Mates of British politics....

@JonathanHaynes: Cameron’s and Osborne’s approval ratings are now positive, Miliband’s, on -25, is worse than even Clegg’s http://t.co/5LBh0AKYq0

ICM euros is really seismic, Labour down 12 points in a month!

MalcolmG - You'll get good odds for that. How much have you got on? I'm morally obliged not to bet on this election because of the insurance value of my non-optimum outcome.

Apologies for the bad language, but I do feel it was merited.

DavidL said:

That was worth waiting for. Tories in the lead with UKIP on 15%? I would not have believed that was possible until very recently.

Labour are in freefall.

Lib Dems up as high as 13 as well. Looks as if they and UKIP are taking votes from Labour.

Will Ed be forced to bring back Ali Campbell and the Price Of Darkness for another go round?

Scott_P said:

Support for Labour drops six points as Tories take lead in latest ICM poll
Labour support falls to 31%, Conservatives rise one point to 33%, Lib Dems are up one on 13% and Ukip rises four to 15%

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/may/12/support-labour-drops-tories-lead-guardian-icm-poll

I don't know. You wait two years for a Tory lead in a poll then two come along at once.

The approval figures are fascinating. Net ratings:

Cameron +2
Osborne +5
Farage -8
Clegg -21
Miliband -25

Yep. That's right: Osborne highest, both Tories in positive territory, and Miliband below Clegg (top idea, that Labour PPB).

It'd be fascinating to see what's happened to the LD-Labour switchers. The assumption has to be that they're mostly still on-side, if leaking slightly; it's the previous core vote that's leaving. If so, that'd put Labour down in the low- to mid-twenties without the Red Liberals - as bad a score as during Brown's dog days.

Guardian ICM Euros Poll

Con 27 (+2), Lab 24 (-12, yes minus twelve), LD 7 (+1) UKIP 26 (+4) Green 10 (+4)

The ICM EU poll is Con 27 (+2), UKIP 26 (+4), Lab 24 (-12), Green 10 (+4), LD 7 (?), SNP 2, PW 2, Others 3

JBriskin said:

MalcolmG - You'll get good odds for that. How much have you got on? I'm morally obliged not to bet on this election because of the insurance value of my non-optimum outcome.

Odds are not that great now at 2/1 , time to be on was when it was 7/1. I have some bets on but not substantial. Unfortunately I am not as flush as I would like to be and so have not had as much free cash as I would have liked to have.
I will just be happy that Scotland chooses to be a real country.

Scott_P said:

Support for Labour drops six points as Tories take lead in latest ICM poll
Labour support falls to 31%, Conservatives rise one point to 33%, Lib Dems are up one on 13% and Ukip rises four to 15%

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/may/12/support-labour-drops-tories-lead-guardian-icm-poll

Should have said, some classic Guardian comments beneath, ranging between bitterness, denial, wishful thinking and quack prescriptions.

JBriskin said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

Interesting. Why do you feel that NO will still win?

I must admit - it is just a gut feeling.

Get to your GP and get that gut seen to it is malfunctioning.

Bad polls for Labour.

The Euro poll is devastating - 24% and third place.

The vast majority on here will be happy, but let's not get too carried away. We need to study the trend for the next 2-4 weeks please.

There seems to be a drfit from Labour to UKIP - this will probably unwind as we head to the GE and Labour's superior ground war campaign kicks in.

Scotland is the big unknown - these polls will not help the Better Together campaign. Are we seeing the beginning of the end for the UK?