Congratulations to the English Democrats PPB, the first one of the year to have me shouting at the TV. Mindless fecking Muppets.
did they have an image of a cat and a 3 inch Nick Clegg too ?
No It was Spitfires and War memorials that set me off. No necked dullards the lot of them.
I just saw that PPB. It was embarrassing. It's shockingly amateur, both in content and quality. It looks like it's been made by the sort of overenthusiastic youtube user that trawls the site regularly posting comments underneath the videos.
Al Murray couldn't produce a better spoof if he tried. If they gather anything more than a tiny handful of votes, I'd be astounded.
UKIP have about a third of the number of members the Tories do, but the point is that a lot of those Tory members will be people who signed up in about 1955 and have been on automatic renewal ever since: in other words, they’re not a active members. UKIP’s members, on the other hand, have mostly joined up in recent months and years. And obviously active members are worth a lot more than inactive ones.
Similar situation in Scotland: SLab membership is inactive and unmotivated. The SNP membership is super-motivated.
However, the difference in Scotland is that the SNP have approx double the membership of SLab.
Another difference is that all SNP members are aware of their SNP membership, SLAB members not so much. Perhaps if someone told them they'd be out pounding pavements...
Well, quite.
The Scottish Labour Party count members of certain social clubs as party "members". Not only is that silly in itself, but it least to double-counting many members.
New Statesman - where the '48 Hours to see a GP' is going to be paid from:
Labour figures have begun the tough work of considering which taxes, most obviously National Insurance, they could raise in order to sustain a free, universal NHS.
George Eaton tweets: Miliband not ruling out raising taxes to fund NHS. All analysts agree it will be necessary to avoid poorer service/patient charges.
On topic, it's clearly poor value to bet on Labour winning most votes in the Euros at current odds of 3/1. Personally, I doubt they will get anything like 30%. If they're at parity, or behind, in Westminster VI, the idea of them doubling their vote on 2009 levels is just lunacy. I can't see any path to them polling top in the Euros. Particularly given the likely low turnout and that it'd require them to transfer almost all their current Westminster VI % share into the Euros.
Plenty of their natural supporters simply won't vote. A chunk of those that do will leak to No2EU, Socialist Labour and Green. A lot will lend their votes to UKIP. My best guess is in the 21-24% bracket.
It's possible that Conservatives and Labour will be close to each other in polling - say 21% to 23% - with Labour just narrowly edging it. UKIP will probably spill out within the 26-29% bracket.
New Statesman - where the '48 Hours to see a GP' is going to be paid from:
Labour figures have begun the tough work of considering which taxes, most obviously National Insurance, they could raise in order to sustain a free, universal NHS.
Well given my surgery regularly post figures of over 200 missed appointments a month. Perhaps Labour want to tackle that before asking me to pay vast extra sums in tax to allow others to waste my GP's time etc.
I forgot to say that you need to think about "value" when betting. Just cos someone backs YES at 7 on Betfair does not mean that they necessarily think that YES will win. Many, if not most betters will trade out before polling day.
UKIP tightening in Newark. They have now overtaken LAB for 2nd in the betting. New best prices:
Con 8/13 (various) UKIP 7/2 (various) (from 11/2 this morning) Lab 4/1 (Hills) LD 250/1 (various)
God Damn it!
I walked past my local PP shop last night and meant to back UKIP at 11/2.. forgot and now 7/2 is best price!
Had a good few moments like that myself!
I'm kicking myself for not getting more... much, much more... on YES when it was trading at 6.4 to 7.
Just think how much money you have saved Stuart.
Seriously, if there were more polls with a tory lead the consequences in the referendum vote could be...interesting.
That post is a candidate for the 'PB Understatement of the Year' award.
Well we try. At the risk of sounding even slightly complacent I think that a tory polling lead is Yes's last chance to change the balance here. If that does not get the Scottish Labour swing vote thinking twice nothing will.
Didn't Blair promise 48hrs to see a GP, and it caused all sorts of issues as everybody is going to demand that it is urgent and want to be seen today / tomorrow, when there many cases where it is not required.
What I can't get my head around is how I can pretty much book everything online these days, but every GP's surgery having online booking systems isn't close. It isn't rocket science, you can buy these systems off the shelf.
Surely, having this in place at for every GP, would get rid of the nonsense and wasted time, money, effort of calling up at 8.00am, stuck in a queue, finding all slots now filled, phone back at 1pm, game that way too many people have to play to see their GP.
Sure some people still need to phone up, but even my elderly mother has an iPad and does everything online these days. All modern phones you can do this on as well.
Interesting to see Labour are back in third place in Newark in terms of betting odds. I could never understand why they were second favourites in the first place.
New Statesman - where the '48 Hours to see a GP' is going to be paid from:
Labour figures have begun the tough work of considering which taxes, most obviously National Insurance, they could raise in order to sustain a free, universal NHS.
Well given my surgery regularly post figures of over 200 missed appointments a month. Perhaps Labour want to tackle that before asking me to pay vast extra sums in tax to allow others to waste my GP's time etc.
Of course charging people for missed appointments would be wicked.......
Congratulations to the English Democrats PPB, the first one of the year to have me shouting at the TV. Mindless fecking Muppets.
did they have an image of a cat and a 3 inch Nick Clegg too ?
No It was Spitfires and War memorials that set me off. No necked dullards the lot of them.
I just saw that PPB. It was embarrassing. It's shockingly amateur, both in content and quality. It looks like it's been made by the sort of overenthusiastic youtube user that trawls the site regularly posting comments underneath the videos.
Al Murray couldn't produce a better spoof if he tried. If they gather anything more than a tiny handful of votes, I'd be astounded.
I read your entire piece as if you were refferring to the Labour PPB !
After all the sneering and jeering, let it be noted that Rod Crosby is owed a big apology from his detractors. I know that I will look at his predictions with renewed interest.
Sneer and jeer all you like. I'll enjoy May 8th 2015 just as much as I enjoyed May 7th 2010...
(^_-)
How will you be feeling on September 19th?
Scottish Independence? I don't really have a feel for it, having no Caledonian connections...
I'd hazard Yes do better than the polls are stating.
UKIP tightening in Newark. They have now overtaken LAB for 2nd in the betting. New best prices:
Con 8/13 (various) UKIP 7/2 (various) (from 11/2 this morning) Lab 4/1 (Hills) LD 250/1 (various)
God Damn it!
I walked past my local PP shop last night and meant to back UKIP at 11/2.. forgot and now 7/2 is best price!
Had a good few moments like that myself!
I'm kicking myself for not getting more... much, much more... on YES when it was trading at 6.4 to 7.
Just think how much money you have saved Stuart.
Seriously, if there were more polls with a tory lead the consequences in the referendum vote could be...interesting.
That post is a candidate for the 'PB Understatement of the Year' award.
Well we try. At the risk of sounding even slightly complacent I think that a tory polling lead is Yes's last chance to change the balance here. If that does not get the Scottish Labour swing vote thinking twice nothing will.
I kind of agree. However, there are 4 or 5 other variables I am keeping my eye on. One or two could be even more decisive than a clear Tory poll lead.
The agony for the Tories is that they're heading for a popular vote win with almost no chance of an overall majority. But this is the system they love so much.
But, the system serves them well (if not as well as Labour). Their share of seats almost always exceeds their share of the vote - and it works to depress support for right wing rivals.
If we had PR, then the Conservatives would have to go into government with UKIP, and I think many of them would baulk at that.
What I find interesting is how many Conservatives are lobbing similar insults, smears and accussations today toward UKIP that they themselves suffered from Labour/Liberal Democrats in the 1997-2005 period. The language is very similar, as is the behaviour. It's as if they're passing the can along the political spectrum.
There's something almost Freudian there. Like someone who's been bullied in the past becoming the bully of the present.
It's worth noting that uniform national swing simply doesn't work when drops in support are as steep as those that the Lib Dems are apparently suffering. I took a detailed look at this here:
The consequence is that the Lib Dems will struggle to get the seats that uniform national swing implies on a given poll rating. They will need to get more votes to hold on in more seats (thus driving up the poll rating).
Indeed. Evidence from all sorts of elections shows that the Lib Dem absolute come-hell-or-high-water core vote is about 2% so if they're at 9% nationally, any seats where they were sub-16% last time (which is quite a lot) cannot drop by UNS because there simply aren't enough votes to start with. So the lack of drop there has to be offset by a greater vote in the seats where they were 16%+ last time.
Now, it might be that most of this comes from middling-performance seats, where they're not the incumbents or in close contention (i.e. those they're working hard). That, however, would imply some massive drops, from say 30% to 3-5% - especially if they record lower-than-average drops in their top band.
I'm not sure that's credible. Indeed, the evidence from Scotland, where the Lib Dems suffered a near-wipeout in 2011, suggests that the biggest swings came in the constituencies where they had *most* votes beforehand (they did hold a greater proportion of their shares in these seats but that's little consolation).
There comes a point where local resilience is overwhelmed by national performance. At 9%, I think the Lib Dems would struggle to hold half their seats and could quite possibly end up with fewer. That said, I do think they'll put on vote share come the campaign and won't end up quite that low.
'Yes or No? Scotland is teetering on a knife-edge' - Through its use of evangelical methods and social media, the pro-independence campaign is doing worryingly well with Scotland’s young and disaffected
Yes people – as he calls them – are trained to orchestrate friendly chats aimed at nudging their mates a few points up a 10-point scale of commitment, with 10 being the mark of a true believer: “Somebody who is three becomes five, becomes seven, becomes 10.”
These conversations happen at work, in the pub, around the kitchen table, anywhere friends meet. They may appear accidental to the targets, but they are not.
There are also pop-up Yes Cafés. “It’s like the old church coffee morning. At each table there is a Yes person.” The agnostics can ask questions, but the Yes people are trained to listen before they answer. “We start by saying, 'What’s important to you?’ ” says Mr Noon. “There is no hard sell. It’s conversion through conversation.”
Congratulations to the English Democrats PPB, the first one of the year to have me shouting at the TV. Mindless fecking Muppets.
did they have an image of a cat and a 3 inch Nick Clegg too ?
No It was Spitfires and War memorials that set me off. No necked dullards the lot of them.
I just saw that PPB. It was embarrassing. It's shockingly amateur, both in content and quality. It looks like it's been made by the sort of overenthusiastic youtube user that trawls the site regularly posting comments underneath the videos.
Al Murray couldn't produce a better spoof if he tried. If they gather anything more than a tiny handful of votes, I'd be astounded.
I read your entire piece as if you were refferring to the Labour PPB !
Ha! Perhaps that is in-and-of-itself revealing ;-)
After all the sneering and jeering, let it be noted that Rod Crosby is owed a big apology from his detractors. I know that I will look at his predictions with renewed interest.
Sneer and jeer all you like. I'll enjoy May 8th 2015 just as much as I enjoyed May 7th 2010...
(^_-)
How will you be feeling on September 19th?
I'd hazard Yes do better than the polls are stating.
Ah, but which polls?
We've heard plausible theories for both shy 'No' and un-polled 'Yes' voters - but I guess we'll find out soon enough!
The agony for the Tories is that they're heading for a popular vote win with almost no chance of an overall majority. But this is the system they love so much.
But, the system serves them well (if not as well as Labour). Their share of seats almost always exceeds their share of the vote - and it works to depress support for right wing rivals.
If we had PR, then the Conservatives would have to go into government with UKIP, and I think many of them would baulk at that.
Or Labour.
Were there PR introduced for 2015, I don't think the Conservatives would be at all worried about a coalition with UKIP. The scrutiny of office applied to the Purples might do the Tories no harm at all, while the government could get on with a centre-right agenda.
Interesting to see Labour are back in third place in Newark in terms of betting odds. I could never understand why they were second favourites in the first place.
11/2 into 7/2 is quite abig move, I wonder what prompted it?
Didn't Blair promise 48hrs to see a GP, and it caused all sorts of issues as everybody is going to demand that it is urgent and want to be seen today / tomorrow, when there many cases where it is not required.
Other way round -- the problem Blair created was that patients were stopped from making appointments *more than* 48 hours in advance, to have stitches removed, for instance, or for any follow-up visits or chronic conditions.
It's worth noting that uniform national swing simply doesn't work when drops in support are as steep as those that the Lib Dems are apparently suffering. I took a detailed look at this here:
The consequence is that the Lib Dems will struggle to get the seats that uniform national swing implies on a given poll rating. They will need to get more votes to hold on in more seats (thus driving up the poll rating).
Indeed. Evidence from all sorts of elections shows that the Lib Dem absolute come-hell-or-high-water core vote is about 2% so if they're at 9% nationally, any seats where they were sub-16% last time (which is quite a lot) cannot drop by UNS because there simply aren't enough votes to start with. So the lack of drop there has to be offset by a greater vote in the seats where they were 16%+ last time.
Now, it might be that most of this comes from middling-performance seats, where they're not the incumbents or in close contention (i.e. those they're working hard). That, however, would imply some massive drops, from say 30% to 3-5% - especially if they record lower-than-average drops in their top band.
I'm not sure that's credible. Indeed, the evidence from Scotland, where the Lib Dems suffered a near-wipeout in 2011, suggests that the biggest swings came in the constituencies where they had *most* votes beforehand (they did hold a greater proportion of their shares in these seats but that's little consolation).
There comes a point where local resilience is overwhelmed by national performance. At 9%, I think the Lib Dems would struggle to hold half their seats and could quite possibly end up with fewer. That said, I do think they'll put on vote share come the campaign and won't end up quite that low.
I'm predicting 19-31 seats for the LD if their at 10%.
The significant thing for me is not the Tory lead, but Labour on 32. That is desperately poor, for them. Surely their lowest national polling since about 2010?
I can't be arsed to check. But it must be a while since they were on 32.
Opinium 13/8/2010 had Labour on 30. The last time they were on 32 or below, I think...
So this is Labour's worst ever poll under Miliband...
Yes. The previously lowest Labour share in 2011-4 was 33% - recorded twice this year, once with Opinium on 28 March and once with Comres on 26 January.
Iain Martin: This referendum will change the Union for ever
I hoped we would not be here. My personal preference was always for the Union as it was and the old pre-devolution model of the UK, which seemed to work well enough for almost 300 years. Athough I admired John Smith’s other attributes, his devolution scheme seemed likely to make the end of the Union more likely. But devolution cannot now be undone; it has its own remorseless logic.
As a result, there is an urgent need for those in London and other parts of the (for now) United Kingdom to start thinking seriously about the consequences of either a break-up or a No vote. September’s referendum and its aftermath will impact not only on Scotland. Whatever the result, we are all going to feel its effects.
['Yes or No? Scotland is teetering on a knife-edge']
It's true - at least I feel it to be that way. It's getting to be that if you're anti "Yes" then you're anti-Scottish. It's simple English (Scots English or English English). I saw this coming from at least one year away. No will still win though. Don't panic (I do hate Adams's references but I sometimes feel the need to speak English.)
New Statesman - where the '48 Hours to see a GP' is going to be paid from:
Labour figures have begun the tough work of considering which taxes, most obviously National Insurance, they could raise in order to sustain a free, universal NHS.
Well given my surgery regularly post figures of over 200 missed appointments a month. Perhaps Labour want to tackle that before asking me to pay vast extra sums in tax to allow others to waste my GP's time etc.
Of course charging people for missed appointments would be wicked.......
Edit, removed bit I couldn't find evidence for.
People are getting older and sicker, and nobody wants their hospital to shut. What do you expect.
My GP has a system where all patients get a call back from their GP to talk before an appointment is made. Lots of people just need reassurance or a new prescription, those who want an appointment get one that day. It's great.
['Yes or No? Scotland is teetering on a knife-edge']
It's true - at least I feel it to be that way. It's getting to be that if you're anti "Yes" then you're anti-Scottish. It's simple English (Scots English or English English). I saw this coming from at least one year away. No will still win though. Don't panic (I do hate Adams's references but I sometimes feel the need to speak English.)
Interesting. Why do you feel that NO will still win?
Didn't Blair promise 48hrs to see a GP, and it caused all sorts of issues as everybody is going to demand that it is urgent and want to be seen today / tomorrow, when there many cases where it is not required.
Other way round -- the problem Blair created was that patients were stopped from making appointments *more than* 48 hours in advance, to have stitches removed, for instance, or for any follow-up visits or chronic conditions.
Not according to this, which is how I remember the policy
'Yes or No? Scotland is teetering on a knife-edge' - Through its use of evangelical methods and social media, the pro-independence campaign is doing worryingly well with Scotland’s young and disaffected
Yes people – as he calls them – are trained to orchestrate friendly chats aimed at nudging their mates a few points up a 10-point scale of commitment, with 10 being the mark of a true believer: “Somebody who is three becomes five, becomes seven, becomes 10.”
These conversations happen at work, in the pub, around the kitchen table, anywhere friends meet. They may appear accidental to the targets, but they are not.
There are also pop-up Yes Cafés. “It’s like the old church coffee morning. At each table there is a Yes person.” The agnostics can ask questions, but the Yes people are trained to listen before they answer. “We start by saying, 'What’s important to you?’ ” says Mr Noon. “There is no hard sell. It’s conversion through conversation.”
Iain Martin: This referendum will change the Union for ever
I hoped we would not be here. My personal preference was always for the Union as it was and the old pre-devolution model of the UK, which seemed to work well enough for almost 300 years. Athough I admired John Smith’s other attributes, his devolution scheme seemed likely to make the end of the Union more likely. But devolution cannot now be undone; it has its own remorseless logic.
As a result, there is an urgent need for those in London and other parts of the (for now) United Kingdom to start thinking seriously about the consequences of either a break-up or a No vote. September’s referendum and its aftermath will impact not only on Scotland. Whatever the result, we are all going to feel its effects.
I completely agree with that. Even if Scotland votes no as I hope it will be changed from this experience and the old ways of doing things will no longer do. I expect us to move to a more federal structure with far greater fiscal autonomy north of the border. Whether that will prove good or ill for Scotland is hard to say but the current situation is not sustainable.
And I don't think I would have thought or said that 6 months ago.
It's worth noting that uniform national swing simply doesn't work when drops in support are as steep as those that the Lib Dems are apparently suffering. I took a detailed look at this here:
The consequence is that the Lib Dems will struggle to get the seats that uniform national swing implies on a given poll rating. They will need to get more votes to hold on in more seats (thus driving up the poll rating).
....There comes a point where local resilience is overwhelmed by national performance. At 9%, I think the Lib Dems would struggle to hold half their seats and could quite possibly end up with fewer. That said, I do think they'll put on vote share come the campaign and won't end up quite that low.
We are not seeing an uplift in the LD support in all the polls during this campaign. Very ominous.
No, that target has been dropped by the government.
Quelle surprise....That is where they should be focusing attention. The task is so trivial it is unbelievable. Even really mom and pop outfits like B&B's have this.
Didn't Blair promise 48hrs to see a GP, and it caused all sorts of issues as everybody is going to demand that it is urgent and want to be seen today / tomorrow, when there many cases where it is not required.
Other way round -- the problem Blair created was that patients were stopped from making appointments *more than* 48 hours in advance, to have stitches removed, for instance, or for any follow-up visits or chronic conditions.
Not according to this, which is how I remember the policy
No -- Labour's 48-hour guarantee had the unintended side-effect of stopping patients making longer-term appointments. You might remember Tony Blair being mystified when challenged by a studio audience about this.
Support for Labour drops six points as Tories take lead in latest ICM poll Labour support falls to 31%, Conservatives rise one point to 33%, Lib Dems are up one on 13% and Ukip rises four to 15%
['Yes or No? Scotland is teetering on a knife-edge']
It's true - at least I feel it to be that way. It's getting to be that if you're anti "Yes" then you're anti-Scottish. It's simple English (Scots English or English English). I saw this coming from at least one year away. No will still win though. Don't panic (I do hate Adams's references but I sometimes feel the need to speak English.)
Brisket , you are dreaming , YES is coming , be prepared.
Well its official the tories are in the lead. Though a Labour drop of 6 and a rise of UKIP of 4 is baffling. No events to cause such a thing but the euros.
Support for Labour drops six points as Tories take lead in latest ICM poll Labour support falls to 31%, Conservatives rise one point to 33%, Lib Dems are up one on 13% and Ukip rises four to 15%
AndyJS - Yeah, I hate apple products. They don't seem to work very well. This is just my opinion.
Apple computers were miles better than the alternatives in the 90s but it was like hitting one's head against a brick wall trying to get people to change from Windows.
Well down here in darkest Sussex we have been able to do it for quite some while and I would guess the software came off a shelf from somewhere. So if we rural types can do it I can't imagine why those in the big smoke and elsewhere cannot.
Doesn't help with the "problem" of people failing to turn up for the appointments they have booked, mind. There were 71 such people in April at my local GPs I noticed when I was in there this morning. How much of a problem people not turning up actually is, would appear to be a matter of perception. It doesn't cost any money as the quack is going to be there anyway, it does mean that people who wanted appointments couldn't get them. On the other hand the physician has that time he can use to talk to patients who need it, make phone calls etc.. Furthermore, years ago my kidney specialist confided to me that it was only people not turning up that allowed his department to actually function, he relied on a 10% no-show rate.
Down at the Eye Hospital they have a savage policy. If you fail to turn up for an appointment then they just take you off their books and you have to start all over again with your GP. I don't know if that is necessary but it is the most fearsomely efficient NHS place I have ever been to.
It's worth noting that uniform national swing simply doesn't work when drops in support are as steep as those that the Lib Dems are apparently suffering. I took a detailed look at this here:
The consequence is that the Lib Dems will struggle to get the seats that uniform national swing implies on a given poll rating. They will need to get more votes to hold on in more seats (thus driving up the poll rating).
....There comes a point where local resilience is overwhelmed by national performance. At 9%, I think the Lib Dems would struggle to hold half their seats and could quite possibly end up with fewer. That said, I do think they'll put on vote share come the campaign and won't end up quite that low.
We are not seeing an uplift in the LD support in all the polls during this campaign. Very ominous.
There's a big difference between the media coverage for a Euro-election (and the locals), and that of a general election. Big difference in the public's attitude too.
Support for Labour drops six points as Tories take lead in latest ICM poll Labour support falls to 31%, Conservatives rise one point to 33%, Lib Dems are up one on 13% and Ukip rises four to 15%
Support for Labour drops six points as Tories take lead in latest ICM poll Labour support falls to 31%, Conservatives rise one point to 33%, Lib Dems are up one on 13% and Ukip rises four to 15%
Support for Labour drops six points as Tories take lead in latest ICM poll Labour support falls to 31%, Conservatives rise one point to 33%, Lib Dems are up one on 13% and Ukip rises four to 15%
MalcolmG - You'll get good odds for that. How much have you got on? I'm morally obliged not to bet on this election because of the insurance value of my non-optimum outcome.
Support for Labour drops six points as Tories take lead in latest ICM poll Labour support falls to 31%, Conservatives rise one point to 33%, Lib Dems are up one on 13% and Ukip rises four to 15%
Iain Martin: This referendum will change the Union for ever
I hoped we would not be here. My personal preference was always for the Union as it was and the old pre-devolution model of the UK, which seemed to work well enough for almost 300 years. Athough I admired John Smith’s other attributes, his devolution scheme seemed likely to make the end of the Union more likely. But devolution cannot now be undone; it has its own remorseless logic.
As a result, there is an urgent need for those in London and other parts of the (for now) United Kingdom to start thinking seriously about the consequences of either a break-up or a No vote. September’s referendum and its aftermath will impact not only on Scotland. Whatever the result, we are all going to feel its effects.
I completely agree with that. Even if Scotland votes no as I hope it will be changed from this experience and the old ways of doing things will no longer do. I expect us to move to a more federal structure with far greater fiscal autonomy north of the border. Whether that will prove good or ill for Scotland is hard to say but the current situation is not sustainable.
And I don't think I would have thought or said that 6 months ago.
David, if it is NO , all we will get will be more responsibility and less money. It will be a monumental disaster for Scotland if the vote is NO. The choice is Hope or NO Hope.
Support for Labour drops six points as Tories take lead in latest ICM poll Labour support falls to 31%, Conservatives rise one point to 33%, Lib Dems are up one on 13% and Ukip rises four to 15%
Yep. That's right: Osborne highest, both Tories in positive territory, and Miliband below Clegg (top idea, that Labour PPB).
It'd be fascinating to see what's happened to the LD-Labour switchers. The assumption has to be that they're mostly still on-side, if leaking slightly; it's the previous core vote that's leaving. If so, that'd put Labour down in the low- to mid-twenties without the Red Liberals - as bad a score as during Brown's dog days.
Support for Labour drops six points as Tories take lead in latest ICM poll Labour support falls to 31%, Conservatives rise one point to 33%, Lib Dems are up one on 13% and Ukip rises four to 15%
MalcolmG - You'll get good odds for that. How much have you got on? I'm morally obliged not to bet on this election because of the insurance value of my non-optimum outcome.
Odds are not that great now at 2/1 , time to be on was when it was 7/1. I have some bets on but not substantial. Unfortunately I am not as flush as I would like to be and so have not had as much free cash as I would have liked to have. I will just be happy that Scotland chooses to be a real country.
Support for Labour drops six points as Tories take lead in latest ICM poll Labour support falls to 31%, Conservatives rise one point to 33%, Lib Dems are up one on 13% and Ukip rises four to 15%
We are not seeing an uplift in the LD support in all the polls during this campaign. Very ominous.
Or totally predictable. LDs haven't started yet - a perfectly rational decision. 6 months before GE2015 is where the action starts.
Ominous for the LD performance in the Euro elections that is. They are not getting an uplift. In this ICM the Greens have now got clear green water with 10% vs the LDs at 7%. That takes us into Nil MEP territory for the LDs. With the loss of 350+ council seats as an aperitif?
Well its official the tories are in the lead. Though a Labour drop of 6 and a rise of UKIP of 4 is baffling. No events to cause such a thing but the euros.
Was Cameron suffering from the Maria Miller debacle in the previous ICM poll?
Comments
Had a good few moments like that myself!
I'm kicking myself for not getting more... much, much more... on YES when it was trading at 6.4 to 7.
Al Murray couldn't produce a better spoof if he tried. If they gather anything more than a tiny handful of votes, I'd be astounded.
The Scottish Labour Party count members of certain social clubs as party "members". Not only is that silly in itself, but it least to double-counting many members.
Seriously, if there were more polls with a tory lead the consequences in the referendum vote could be...interesting.
Labour figures have begun the tough work of considering which taxes, most obviously National Insurance, they could raise in order to sustain a free, universal NHS.
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/05/miliband-puts-nhs-centre-stage-new-gp-guarantee
14 hours 26 minutes 26 seconds
UKIP 4/9 (Coral)
Lab 2/1 (various)
Con 35/1 (Betfair)
LD 1000/1 (Betfair)
"Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB 43m
I'm hoping that big poll news tonight will be a ICM phone Euos poll. Last time it was LAB 36, CON 25, Ukip 20, LD 6."
twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/465896675878658048
Or are you having to recalculate?
Edit: I am not as senile as I thought:
8:59AM
Latest ARSE 2015 General Election Projection Countdown :
1 day 1 minute 1 second
National Insurance....obviously......
Plenty of their natural supporters simply won't vote. A chunk of those that do will leak to No2EU, Socialist Labour and Green. A lot will lend their votes to UKIP. My best guess is in the 21-24% bracket.
It's possible that Conservatives and Labour will be close to each other in polling - say 21% to 23% - with Labour just narrowly edging it. UKIP will probably spill out within the 26-29% bracket.
The English had their 'tea' hours ago, and are thinking of 'dinner' (unless they had that at lunchtime....) or supper.....
I forgot to say that you need to think about "value" when betting. Just cos someone backs YES at 7 on Betfair does not mean that they necessarily think that YES will win. Many, if not most betters will trade out before polling day.
It's up there with the gas bills. I must say though that I liked Ed M's beer belly. Reports of Ed M not being a human have been greatly exaggerated.
What I can't get my head around is how I can pretty much book everything online these days, but every GP's surgery having online booking systems isn't close. It isn't rocket science, you can buy these systems off the shelf.
Surely, having this in place at for every GP, would get rid of the nonsense and wasted time, money, effort of calling up at 8.00am, stuck in a queue, finding all slots now filled, phone back at 1pm, game that way too many people have to play to see their GP.
Sure some people still need to phone up, but even my elderly mother has an iPad and does everything online these days. All modern phones you can do this on as well.
I'd hazard Yes do better than the polls are stating.
There's something almost Freudian there. Like someone who's been bullied in the past becoming the bully of the present.
Now, it might be that most of this comes from middling-performance seats, where they're not the incumbents or in close contention (i.e. those they're working hard). That, however, would imply some massive drops, from say 30% to 3-5% - especially if they record lower-than-average drops in their top band.
I'm not sure that's credible. Indeed, the evidence from Scotland, where the Lib Dems suffered a near-wipeout in 2011, suggests that the biggest swings came in the constituencies where they had *most* votes beforehand (they did hold a greater proportion of their shares in these seats but that's little consolation).
There comes a point where local resilience is overwhelmed by national performance. At 9%, I think the Lib Dems would struggle to hold half their seats and could quite possibly end up with fewer. That said, I do think they'll put on vote share come the campaign and won't end up quite that low.
- Through its use of evangelical methods and social media, the pro-independence campaign is doing worryingly well with Scotland’s young and disaffected
Yes people – as he calls them – are trained to orchestrate friendly chats aimed at nudging their mates a few points up a 10-point scale of commitment, with 10 being the mark of a true believer: “Somebody who is three becomes five, becomes seven, becomes 10.”
These conversations happen at work, in the pub, around the kitchen table, anywhere friends meet. They may appear accidental to the targets, but they are not.
There are also pop-up Yes Cafés. “It’s like the old church coffee morning. At each table there is a Yes person.” The agnostics can ask questions, but the Yes people are trained to listen before they answer. “We start by saying, 'What’s important to you?’ ” says Mr Noon. “There is no hard sell. It’s conversion through conversation.”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scottish-independence/10821784/Yes-or-No-Scotland-is-teetering-on-a-knife-edge.html
Lol - let ipads save the day - I note SeanT (of ipad fandom) has chosen to go away.
We've heard plausible theories for both shy 'No' and un-polled 'Yes' voters - but I guess we'll find out soon enough!
Were there PR introduced for 2015, I don't think the Conservatives would be at all worried about a coalition with UKIP. The scrutiny of office applied to the Purples might do the Tories no harm at all, while the government could get on with a centre-right agenda.
Probably a small bet being placed!
I hoped we would not be here. My personal preference was always for the Union as it was and the old pre-devolution model of the UK, which seemed to work well enough for almost 300 years. Athough I admired John Smith’s other attributes, his devolution scheme seemed likely to make the end of the Union more likely. But devolution cannot now be undone; it has its own remorseless logic.
As a result, there is an urgent need for those in London and other parts of the (for now) United Kingdom to start thinking seriously about the consequences of either a break-up or a No vote. September’s referendum and its aftermath will impact not only on Scotland. Whatever the result, we are all going to feel its effects.
http://www.standard.co.uk/comment/iain-martin-this-referendum-will-change-the-union-for-ever-9355949.html
It's true - at least I feel it to be that way. It's getting to be that if you're anti "Yes" then you're anti-Scottish. It's simple English (Scots English or English English). I saw this coming from at least one year away. No will still win though. Don't panic (I do hate Adams's references but I sometimes feel the need to speak English.)
People are getting older and sicker, and nobody wants their hospital to shut. What do you expect.
My GP has a system where all patients get a call back from their GP to talk before an appointment is made. Lots of people just need reassurance or a new prescription, those who want an appointment get one that day. It's great.
Con 294
Lab 250
UKIP 57
LD 21
Nats 10
Patients in England will be able to book GP appointments and get test results online within three years, ministers are promising.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-18143082
Do we know if this is on target?
http://www.onmedica.com/newsArticle.aspx?id=82c6906f-e7b1-4f1c-b6e9-e9c9b820ea7c
FACT - NHS bought me LITERAL SILVER. For MEDICINAL Reasons.
I'm trying to get into the spirit of being excited like everyone else seems to be. Or perhaps I'm just not so used to being here anymore.
And I don't think I would have thought or said that 6 months ago.
Labour support falls to 31%, Conservatives rise one point to 33%, Lib Dems are up one on 13% and Ukip rises four to 15%
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/may/12/support-labour-drops-tories-lead-guardian-icm-poll
Support for Labour drops six points as Tories take lead in latest ICM poll >> http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/may/12/support-labour-drops-tories-lead-guardian-icm-poll … Con 33 Lab 31...
Though a Labour drop of 6 and a rise of UKIP of 4 is baffling. No events to cause such a thing but the euros.
Labour are in freefall.
Support for Labour drops six points as Tories take lead in latest ICM poll
Labour support falls to 31%, Conservatives rise one point to 33%, Lib Dems are up one on 13% and Ukip rises four to 15%
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/may/12/support-labour-drops-tories-lead-guardian-icm-poll
Doesn't help with the "problem" of people failing to turn up for the appointments they have booked, mind. There were 71 such people in April at my local GPs I noticed when I was in there this morning. How much of a problem people not turning up actually is, would appear to be a matter of perception. It doesn't cost any money as the quack is going to be there anyway, it does mean that people who wanted appointments couldn't get them. On the other hand the physician has that time he can use to talk to patients who need it, make phone calls etc.. Furthermore, years ago my kidney specialist confided to me that it was only people not turning up that allowed his department to actually function, he relied on a 10% no-show rate.
Down at the Eye Hospital they have a savage policy. If you fail to turn up for an appointment then they just take you off their books and you have to start all over again with your GP. I don't know if that is necessary but it is the most fearsomely efficient NHS place I have ever been to.
Con 282
Lab 238
UKIP 58
LD 44
Nats 10
Unless you are Ed Miliband. The Billy No-Mates of British politics....
Oh dear.
Very, very bad for Labour.
(^_-)
Con 283
Lab 301
UKIP 0
LD 37
Oths 11
NI 18
good old random number generator FPTP!
Offically labour crisis in the short term... Rod Crosby who predicted this= god.
The approval figures are fascinating. Net ratings:
Cameron +2
Osborne +5
Farage -8
Clegg -21
Miliband -25
Yep. That's right: Osborne highest, both Tories in positive territory, and Miliband below Clegg (top idea, that Labour PPB).
It'd be fascinating to see what's happened to the LD-Labour switchers. The assumption has to be that they're mostly still on-side, if leaking slightly; it's the previous core vote that's leaving. If so, that'd put Labour down in the low- to mid-twenties without the Red Liberals - as bad a score as during Brown's dog days.
Con 27 (+2), Lab 24 (-12, yes minus twelve), LD 7 (+1) UKIP 26 (+4) Green 10 (+4)
I will just be happy that Scotland chooses to be a real country.
The Euro poll is devastating - 24% and third place.
The vast majority on here will be happy, but let's not get too carried away. We need to study the trend for the next 2-4 weeks please.
There seems to be a drfit from Labour to UKIP - this will probably unwind as we head to the GE and Labour's superior ground war campaign kicks in.
Scotland is the big unknown - these polls will not help the Better Together campaign. Are we seeing the beginning of the end for the UK?