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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The first of Lord Ashcroft’s weekly phone polls has CON 2%
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The first of Lord Ashcroft’s weekly phone polls has CON 2% ahead
Looking at the methodology this seems to be following ICM or how Populus used to do it when they were pollster for the Times. The sample is past vote weighted and there is a spiral of silence adjustment. It looks sound.
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(and on the last thread too).
We can see how "crossover" occurred from Opposition back to Government here;
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-1979-1983
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-1983-1987
Unfortunately for the 83-87 Parliament there's no graph, but in both Parliaments is appears as though the shift was quite sudden and dramatic - When people shifted back to Maggie they did so suddenly and decisively.
Personally I would expect something much more gradual and subtle in 2014, with Labour and Tories basically trading blows for a few months, but who knows?
Why would that be?
Amusingly, contrary to most people's prejudices, the responses of people working had to be weighted down in this sample, from 491 to 440, while the responses of those not working had to be weighted up, from 385 to 441. Similarly, those in council houses had to have their responses weighted up, while there were too many mortgage-paying people with time to answer the phone.
(^_-)
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/strongmodel.html
It's worth noting that uniform national swing simply doesn't work when drops in support are as steep as those that the Lib Dems are apparently suffering. I took a detailed look at this here:
http://newstonoone.blogspot.co.uk/2014/04/the-hunt-for-2010-lib-dems-part-1.html
The consequence is that the Lib Dems will struggle to get the seats that uniform national swing implies on a given poll rating. They will need to get more votes to hold on in more seats (thus driving up the poll rating).
Because even if we have a referendum, and we vote to leave, while Cameron is PM...
"EU rules allowing people to move freely between countries are “important” and will remain in place, despite controversy over the immigration they allow"
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/immigration/10823753/Britain-will-not-stop-EU-migrants-coming-here-to-work-says-Cameron.html
Labour LOL or something similar. Someone might might cross over this poll...
Have taken his predictions much more seriously ever since.
I fear if ICM weighs in with a Level pegging poll or even Tory lead then PB will be bereft of compouter and NPxMP for a few days.
Conventional wisdom states that Labour % at the last GE was the absolute utter rock bottom, and that have to do better this time around, plus pi$$ed off ex-Lib Dem voters.
On the flip side, Cameron couldn't gain a very high % at the last GE, despite his opponent being widely despised. This time around, he himself has various baggage and for the older more right wing voter, UKIP has become a party where they appear happy to cast their vote.
My personal opinion is that UKIP level will drop back some what, but I can't see how the Tories can at very very best win by a small margin and resulting in a hung parliament.
The trend is your friend.
That said, it is an indictment of the British public that they appear to be actively considering returning the Conservatives as the largest party (whether by votes or by seats) at the next general election to the House of Commons. The record of this government has been woeful.
Probably Ladbrokes but those bets seem to disappear on their historic activity after a couple of years... now that really would be annoying if I can't find a winning bet.
Clearly just another mainstream media attempt to smear UKIP. Cough. http://guyfawk.es/1qw13HL
dream on Richard, Cameron is the PM who can't win a majority. HP I'm afraid, not enough bankers or estate agents in North Warwickshire.
These voters - and not the LibDem 2010 switchers - hold the key to May 2015.
I was merely pointing out the disparity in Sean's logic. His premise would indicate that Miliband is right to try to defend his core vote.
I made no comment on whether the premise is justified or not.
How many (despite the reports) will not be so scared of a Tory win, as the last 5 years haven't resulted in social collapse and the removal of all benefits and the compulsory consumption of the one in every three babies? There are good reasons to suspect that the true Labour core is 24% to 26%, add the Red Lib Dems, and that will not get them much beyond 32%.
Where are the Tory votes coming from? Look back at old opinion polls and see how close they were to 40% in this parliament.
While it may not happen, it is possible.
Ed won't do anything like as well as Gordon Brown in Scotland.
The last Survation poll said 11% of current-UKIP would consider switching to Conservative on a squeeze question.
I'm fairly confident at this stage the Lib Dems will be under their seat score from 1997' and probably somewhere near 92.
Predicting actual vote shares and seats is a more tricky proposition, but who'll come out on top in the PV is relatively straightforward.
I'll assume the Greens lose a seat,
ONE Lib Dem Hold ?!!!!!!!!!!!!! (Which MUST_ be Carmichael)
I know they're doing not so well but Charlie Kennedy, Clegg and Farron losing their seats is a stretch.
I shall be fine-tuning my position as we get more info and as sentiment changes.
Tom Clark @guardian_clark · 1m
Guardian/ICM poll coming up tonight ...
Cameron's tragedy remains he couldn't break out of the South and cement a con govt for a couple of Parliaments.
I still feel that disappointment bordering on despair about the inadequacies of Miliband have been held in check by the poll lead, however slender. The next few weeks will be interesting if this is not a flash in the pan.
http://order-order.com/2014/05/12/watch-eds-big-break/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
I think it's a given that there will be some UKIP supporters that return to the Tories - at least a couple of points. But there will need to be a concerted effort to win them back for it to be enough. Cameron coming out and saying he's not going to do anything to stop cheap Eastern European labour from coming here isn't going to help. And if immigration doesn't fall further - it's still twice his target levels - he's going to need a plan to deal with that. If not EU migrants, then bring back the primary purpose rule, require a higher standard of English, two year relationships for married couples, etc.
He also needs to get over this stupid authoritarian crap. It just needlessly pisses off people that cares about civil liberties for no substantiated gain. He needs to get rid of the snooper's charter (for mobile phones and computers), pull out of the EAW and get a hold on GCHQ. There has to be a lot of right wingers out there - from centre-right liberals to very right wing Tories - that have a lot of angst over this and find it a lot easier to go back to the government if they did something of substance here.
If this doesn't make them realise that parrotting a few slogans like "cost-of-living crisis", squealing about the evil Tories, and merely pledging to fiddle around the edges of Tory spending plans, is a doomed strategy, then nothing will.
Could we trade "Cameron's tragedy" for Gaylord Poncy Boots can't win a majority in his own right ?
But hey, really what do us two ethnics know ?
So this is what happens when you let a cat chase your political opponents, rather than doing it yourself.
"The billiard-sharp whom anyone catches
His doom’s extremely hard—
He’s made to dwell
In a dungeon cell
On a spot that’s always barred.
And there he plays extravagant matches
In fitless finger-stalls,
On a cloth untrue
With a twisted cue
And elliptical billiard balls."
We also need to wait for the marginals poll, because last time around it showed Labour doing far better in the seats we need to win. National percentages do not translate into national seats won especially with regional parties, so piling up votes in seats you're already winning and losing them in key marginals does not equal good news.
We know the election is going to be tight. So it does come down to a seat by seat ground war.
How short your memory is Mr Thomas - and how far have the horizons of Cameron's supporters shrunk that a poll score of 34% is treated as a triumph.
Amen to that.
Like all mainstream politicians he sides far too easily with big business, the CBI, the civil service, the EU, and any other giant and powerful vested interest that can get in front of him.
He needs to take the side of the little guy far, far more. The small business, the one man band, the pensioner, the housewife etc.
That's what people forget about Mrs Thatcher - she didn;t just smash working and chattering class vested interests. She shattered conservative old boy networks like the pre-big bang City, too.
She hated the old school tie as much as the closed shop.
So this is Labour's worst ever poll under Miliband...
Much appreciated.
I've been in the business of polling for 4 years and I declare it: It's a poll for the recycling bin.
If we had PR, then the Conservatives would have to go into government with UKIP, and I think many of them would baulk at that.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-27377978
How's the NHS doing in Wales after 15 years of Labour control?
Totally off topic, a nice half bottle of chilled red (yes chilled) Chinon from the Loire has arrived at my table on the outskirts of Paris. So life's not unbearably grim. Sante!
On 7th May they said: "In the Antarctic, sea ice continued to reach record high extents."
Arctic ice, although still well below the long term average, remains significantly up on last year.
It's a comfort poll. (4 years doing polls, i'm reading them since 2000)
Not one of your bravest forecasts!