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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Pandemic – some of this afternoon’s developments
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Pandemic – some of this afternoon’s developments
We have just released new bookings for thousands more home testing kits. ?There is also availability to book a test for tomorrow across our network of regional testing sites. ?Check eligibility and book online now ??https://t.co/LmhXHg0tmR
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Looking at those last graphs, it appears to behave like slugs.
Raab said in his intro that it is the critical test - but he has changed it and nobody has noticed.
Total deaths by date of report does show 7 day rolling average is falling to some degree.
Question implies she hasn't seen / understood the slide.
Boris Johnson and Carrie Symonds announce birth of son https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-52469079
Mr Johnson, 55, and Ms Symonds, 32, announced in March that they were expecting a baby in "early summer", and that they had become engaged at the end of last year.
They are the first unmarried couple to move into Downing Street together.
An exasperated David Lloyd George and Frances Stevenson wave hello.
Leicester now 484 discharged, 211 deaths, so inpatient mortality now a lower percentage, though still grim.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
I thought it was just the one he went chasing after.
Please cancel yourself.
Well persisting with lockdown measures means the economy is going to be completely smashed to pieces for years to come so the the chances of re-employment at a decent standard are very low for a long period ahead.
We forecast that for the foreseeable future you'll be having a totally rotten life on meagre benefits due to our enormous debt, with poorer public services.
Now, back to those PPE supply problems Piers Morgan is so concerned about.
LHR to Stockholm ?
I suspect the resultant death figures will draw extra criticism from many but excluding them was no longer tenable.
It brings us in to line with France but now out of step with Italy.
It's not in the national interest to have more than one metric, because that would make journalists' heads explode.
In fact without a domestic lockdown causing a domestic furlough scheme its likely all airlines would have sacked even more workers already.
What would YOU say to a sacked BA worker today?
retrain in another industry? when Lockdown is needlessly destroying jobs in all walks of life?
These poor people must be in a world of sh8t. No jobs in their industry. No jobs anywhere else either.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
https://www.worldometers.info/demographics/life-expectancy/
I would hope though BA executives have also cut their own pay and bonuses first
Once lockdown ends and furlough ends then hopefully the economy can recover quickly. But with or without a lockdown there is economic carnage and lay-offs either way as people lockdown of their own initiative without any support since its not official.
Just get mass testing up and advise over 70s to stay indoors unless absolutely necessary to travel or go outside
What is the timescale used ? Is it one week or two or something else ?
Because if we assume Rt is 0.75 then 3 time periods would see the number of infected reduced to 42% of the original whereas 6 time periods would see it reduced to 18%.
Any idea that economic carnage now would be avoided without a lockdown is completely farcical. As is any idea that any government borrowing now (for a once-in-a-century pandemic) would cripple the government expenditure, that is also economically illiterate.
The critical point is that we were warned about this and could have taken measures to limit economic harm.
This is huge and is long term, fundamentally changing the industry.
Travel insurance will also be an issue going forward, as is the prospect of flying itself in an unsafe environment, and even a possible quarantine position
I agree on executive salaries and dividend payments across all business
The action by Airbus tells you all you need to know about the medium term prospects of the aircraft industry
Without an official lockdown people still take matters into their own hands and lockdown as much as they are able to do so. Without an official lockdown or furlough scheme what would have happened?
The hospitality, travel, tourism and similar sectors would all have been devastated and gone bust as their number of customers plummeted but with zero support or furlough scheme the employees would have all lost their jobs. As has happened in other nations.
Our unemployment numbers aren't changing as much because of the furlough scheme.
And I am not over 80
you can't get a job in your own industry, you can;t retrain because colleges are locked down, your prospects of a job in another industry are close to zero for years to come because lockdown has smashed every industry, you can;t even meet someone face to face to try to convince them you might be worth employing.
This is your future. An enforced breadline existence you cannot get out of. For years. While some academic argues whether R is at one or not.
That is what millions of moderate and low paid workers in our country face. How long do you or anybody else think we can keep the lid on that? whether Corona deaths are at twenty, fifty or even 100,000?
Moaning is not going to change where we are
Carnyx said:
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Death rate is actually pretty flat if you take the weekend effects out by looking at the 7 day average (look at the graph for New Daily Deaths Comparisons). One could just as well argue that the Scots got the death rate increase under control earlier but it's flatlining [edited]. But I don't really know!
Someone below (can't relocate it, sorry) was claiming a double the English death rate pro rata below. But the figures are nothing like that level of difference. There is (now) a small excess over the English figure, but I don't know enough about the procedural and recording differences which could well explain it.
You don't see too many comparisons but last one I saw had Scotland significantly lower than England per head of population but they will not really want to bandy it about much. Whether with our later peak we are catching up a bit but still about 250 per million versus England's 350 per million. This is a good site, or looks like it to me, I am sure some expert will say it is crap.
https://www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
Philip_Thompson said:
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Thanks that was my guess but I wonder how a later peak has come about in Scotland and Wales given that means it must have continued growing while in lockdown? Seems like an interesting oddity.
All those infected buggers coming up from London spreading it willy nilly.
DougSeal said:
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"Never include them". That pesky Westminster Government looking to hide the figures by releasing them through a that shadowy secretive body, the Office for National Statistics.
Never change, Malc, you're a gem.
Obfuscation, split them , show them differently etc , different graphs so no-one has a clue what real numbers are and they can pretend they are not the worst in the developed world. Tories will never change.
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I have never suggested or expected such a thing
And you are an image of Trump in many ways
the [Downing St] spokesman said the wording has been changed just to better reflect what Raab actually said when he set out the five tests at a press conference on 16 April. The spokesman was right. This is what Raab said in his speech at the time:
"We need to be confident that any adjustments to the current measures will not risk a second peak of infections that overwhelm the NHS."
From the FT (https://www.ft.com/content/1625275b-9981-49f4-b788-661f8243890d)
“It doesn’t seem like a knockout . . . But it is a very important proof of concept,” Dr Fauci said in press briefing also attended by the president. “It is a very positive event,” Mr Trump said.
Dr Fauci’s National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases has not yet released the full results of the trial of remdesivir, which has been touted as one of the most promising Covid-19 treatments. But he said they would be submitted to a medical journal and peer-reviewed.
There was about a 31 per cent improvement in patients taking the drug compared with placebo, Dr Fauci said. Some 8 per cent of the group taking remdesivir died, compared with 11 per cent in the control group.
Q: What’s wrong with simply enjoying an extended life?
A: These people who live a vigorous life to 70, 80, 90 years of age—when I look at what those people “do,” almost all of it is what I classify as play. It’s not meaningful work. They’re riding motorcycles; they’re hiking. Which can all have value—don’t get me wrong. But if it’s the main thing in your life? Ummm, that’s not probably a meaningful life.
Part of his argument for why people over the age of 75 shouldn't get healthcare.
Blocking under 50s from returning to work indefinitely will result in mass unemployment and depression with consequences far worse than not having a lock down outside the peak
We cannot stop most of life indefinitely
There would be more economic devastation without a lockdown as you'd have had just as much economic devastation as people take their own actions to avoid risk but with zero government support.
The government borrowing for a once-in-a-century pandemic can easier pay for people's wages than the companies that would have gone bust otherwise. We'd have millions unemployed by now not ten thousand in one industry without a lockdown.
This fed into the atmosphere of moral decay around the government epitomised by the blatant sale of honours for Lloyd George’s personal benefit.
To paraphrase a great man you are naive, and what's more you are disgusting naive. But tomorrow I'd spell that word correctly and you will still be disgustingly naive.