BBC London News reporting the dilemma for illegal immigrants during lockdown.
The BBC is totally toast in my view following this crisis.
Or at least the news bit is.
but it is a problem, and ought to be aired. You cannot choose to hear the news you want to hear unless you employ the off button selectively, or decline to watch TV.
Why not? You can watch what programs you want to on TV. TV is on demand now so don't demand the News and you don't get the News.
OK, PB fountain of knowledge, I need help with a quiz question:
Who was the last (major party) losing candidate, at a U.S. Presidential election, to fail to be elected (or take office), on more than the one occasion?
Just heard from another of my wife's friends, this time in Munich (a perk of being a TOEFL teacher is getting friendships with former students all over the world) that after shops re-opened there recently, cases have shot back up again and they may have to go back to a lockdown.
I think human life as we know it is at an end. We will be living like this for years, maybe forever. I am questioning seriously whether I can live out my life in this enforced isolation.
No chance.
Isolation while we flatten the curve and build up NHS capacity, testing and tracking/tracing capacity and PPE capacity makes sense.
Once capacity is up there is zero reason to maintain the lockdown.
That’s not what the Government is saying. They say there has to be no chance of a second wave. That will never happen. Living in this half existence forever is simply not worth it. It’s not even living, it’s existing. There is no hope.
They're saying there has to be no chance of a second wave that will overwhelm the NHS.
Once we have flattened the curve, upgraded NHS capacity, upgraded testing capacity, upgraded testing and tracking/tracity capacity and upgraded PPE capacity then there would be no chance of that.
That small change to point 5 of the PowerPoint slide was flatly contradicted by Raab today. Listening to him today convinced me that is really no reason to continue. It’s over.
That change to point 5 matches what Raab always said.
Going forward I think the approach is obviously going to vary according to how effective employers find WFH to be and how much money it saves them. You'll get some companies that will dispense entirely with centralised offices, others that will keep small premises to use to hold periodic meetings, some will want to operate more in the manner that you describe (part-time working in the office and part-time at home,) and some businesses - though I would guess only a minority - will want everyone back in the office as soon as social distancing ends or they can find enough space to work around it.
My husband's office has everyone working from home at the moment, but latest news is that they're looking at how many employees they can accommodate whilst sticking to the distancing rules and that this is likely to lead to rotation of staff in and out (albeit that he personally will probably be stuck at home for the duration on account of his asthma.) However, no movement in that direction likely until June at the earliest.
At last, a subject worth discussing instead of how anyone with a little knowledge of Excel can set the public agenda with a few lines and graphs
I've been tasked with looking at this for a few clients - my first guesstimate is current office configurations will allow 50-60% of staff to return with adequate distancing. The big problem areas are meeting rooms and one of my clients is of the view the price of office space will collapse meaning they can rent more space and accommodate more of their staff even with diatancing.
As far as the working part of working at home is concerned, I've encouraged clients to allow virtual social gatherings such as the Digital Cuppa or the Virtual Watercooler. This is a recognition a part of work isn't work at all but social interaction or socialisation whether it's talking football or the latest thing on Netflix or whatever. There are one or two managers who think people should work more because they aren't travelling but that's now how working at home operates or in my view should operate - it's your home not your prison.
OK, PB fountain of knowledge, I need help with a quiz question:
Who was the last (major party) losing candidate, at a U.S. Presidential election, to fail to be elected (or take office), on more than the one occasion?
Germans estimating Rt back at 0.75, so the apparent bounce was seemingly just noise. Probably quite important for our policy-makers.
Probably not. It's given them a great excuse for doing nothing a week Thursday, which is exactly what they wanted to do anyway.
SAGE needs balancing with other risk, behavioural, social and economic advisors.
I am expecting Boris to announce on 7 May:
Opening of smaller non-essential shops and of course garden centres subject to social distancing measures
A relaxation to social distancing within houses to allow family members in different residences to meet
To apply from 11 May.
Partial reopening of schools 1 June
Restaurants, gyms and possibly pubs with restrictions 22 June
Relaxation of restrictions 12 July
These are all at three week intervals and will be subject to ongoing assessment against the 5 tests
I don't think non essential shops will happen - the whole point of the lockdown at the moment is we only go out if we have a reason to. Non essential changes that entirely.
I suspect first step of easing will be, announced on 7th May, tips open if you have to go to them, from May 21st.
Mr Johnson, 55, and Ms Symonds, 32, announced in March that they were expecting a baby in "early summer", and that they had become engaged at the end of last year. They are the first unmarried couple to move into Downing Street together.
An exasperated David Lloyd George and Frances Stevenson wave hello.
Just heard from another of my wife's friends, this time in Munich (a perk of being a TOEFL teacher is getting friendships with former students all over the world) that after shops re-opened there recently, cases have shot back up again and they may have to go back to a lockdown.
I think human life as we know it is at an end. We will be living like this for years, maybe forever. I am questioning seriously whether I can live out my life in this enforced isolation.
No chance.
Isolation while we flatten the curve and build up NHS capacity, testing and tracking/tracing capacity and PPE capacity makes sense.
Once capacity is up there is zero reason to maintain the lockdown.
That’s not what the Government is saying. They say there has to be no chance of a second wave. That will never happen. Living in this half existence forever is simply not worth it. It’s not even living, it’s existing. There is no hope.
They're saying there has to be no chance of a second wave that will overwhelm the NHS.
Once we have flattened the curve, upgraded NHS capacity, upgraded testing capacity, upgraded testing and tracking/tracity capacity and upgraded PPE capacity then there would be no chance of that.
That small change to point 5 of the PowerPoint slide was flatly contradicted by Raab today. Listening to him today convinced me that is really no reason to continue. It’s over.
That change to point 5 matches what Raab always said.
You are a member of the Conservative Party. I’m have no interest in spinning what he said. This is going to last for years, maybe for the rest of our lives. Frankly I am not going to spend decades like this. If you think this is living that’s your problem.
OK, PB fountain of knowledge, I need help with a quiz question:
Who was the last (major party) losing candidate, at a U.S. Presidential election, to fail to be elected (or take office), on more than the one occasion?
Adlai Stevenson lost twice - 1952 and 1956.
Thanks. I have to admit that I've never heard of him.
Just heard from another of my wife's friends, this time in Munich (a perk of being a TOEFL teacher is getting friendships with former students all over the world) that after shops re-opened there recently, cases have shot back up again and they may have to go back to a lockdown.
I think human life as we know it is at an end. We will be living like this for years, maybe forever. I am questioning seriously whether I can live out my life in this enforced isolation.
No chance.
Isolation while we flatten the curve and build up NHS capacity, testing and tracking/tracing capacity and PPE capacity makes sense.
Once capacity is up there is zero reason to maintain the lockdown.
That’s not what the Government is saying. They say there has to be no chance of a second wave. That will never happen. Living in this half existence forever is simply not worth it. It’s not even living, it’s existing. There is no hope.
They're saying there has to be no chance of a second wave that will overwhelm the NHS.
Once we have flattened the curve, upgraded NHS capacity, upgraded testing capacity, upgraded testing and tracking/tracity capacity and upgraded PPE capacity then there would be no chance of that.
That small change to point 5 of the PowerPoint slide was flatly contradicted by Raab today. Listening to him today convinced me that is really no reason to continue. It’s over.
That change to point 5 matches what Raab always said.
You are a member of the Conservative Party. I’m have no interest in spinning what he said. This is going to last for years, maybe for the rest of our lives. Frankly I am not going to spend decades like this. If you think this is living that’s your problem.
My politics have nothing to do with it and I have no interest in spin. There is not the slightest chance of this happening for years and the Guardian and a government spokesmen already confirmed earlier the Point 5 issue.
Just heard from another of my wife's friends, this time in Munich (a perk of being a TOEFL teacher is getting friendships with former students all over the world) that after shops re-opened there recently, cases have shot back up again and they may have to go back to a lockdown.
I think human life as we know it is at an end. We will be living like this for years, maybe forever. I am questioning seriously whether I can live out my life in this enforced isolation.
No chance.
Isolation while we flatten the curve and build up NHS capacity, testing and tracking/tracing capacity and PPE capacity makes sense.
Once capacity is up there is zero reason to maintain the lockdown.
That’s not what the Government is saying. They say there has to be no chance of a second wave. That will never happen. Living in this half existence forever is simply not worth it. It’s not even living, it’s existing. There is no hope.
They're saying there has to be no chance of a second wave that will overwhelm the NHS.
Once we have flattened the curve, upgraded NHS capacity, upgraded testing capacity, upgraded testing and tracking/tracity capacity and upgraded PPE capacity then there would be no chance of that.
That small change to point 5 of the PowerPoint slide was flatly contradicted by Raab today. Listening to him today convinced me that is really no reason to continue. It’s over.
That change to point 5 matches what Raab always said.
You are a member of the Conservative Party. I’m have no interest in spinning what he said. This is going to last for years, maybe for the rest of our lives. Frankly I am not going to spend decades like this. If you think this is living that’s your problem.
My politics have nothing to do with it and I have no interest in spin. There is not the slightest chance of this happening for years and the Guardian and a government spokesmen already confirmed earlier the Point 5 issue.
Germans estimating Rt back at 0.75, so the apparent bounce was seemingly just noise. Probably quite important for our policy-makers.
Probably not. It's given them a great excuse for doing nothing a week Thursday, which is exactly what they wanted to do anyway.
SAGE needs balancing with other risk, behavioural, social and economic advisors.
I am expecting Boris to announce on 7 May:
Opening of smaller non-essential shops and of course garden centres subject to social distancing measures
A relaxation to social distancing within houses to allow family members in different residences to meet
To apply from 11 May.
Partial reopening of schools 1 June
Restaurants, gyms and possibly pubs with restrictions 22 June
Relaxation of restrictions 12 July
These are all at three week intervals and will be subject to ongoing assessment against the 5 tests
I don't think non essential shops will happen - the whole point of the lockdown at the moment is we only go out if we have a reason to. Non essential changes that entirely.
I suspect first step of easing will be, announced on 7th May, tips open if you have to go to them, from May 21st.
Schools - not this school year.
Ok but the government does need to set out a route to some sort of normal to a. give the population something to look to and b. save the economy. You may be right on schools in particular, if it was partial from 1 June that means some children would only go back say 22 June ie 4 weeks before end of school year, ie why bother?
I had to switch the BBC news off earlier this evening because their "end of the world is nigh" narrative was getting me down.
The BBC is a load of crap.
The BBC's take on politics is a load of crap. They look on, slack-jawed, that people could really have a different take on the world to themselves.
Programmes like Horizon are some of the best programmes made anywhere on the planet. What they do well, they do brilliantly. Just broaden your bloody political perspective from being such liberal patricians, BBC.
Just heard from another of my wife's friends, this time in Munich (a perk of being a TOEFL teacher is getting friendships with former students all over the world) that after shops re-opened there recently, cases have shot back up again and they may have to go back to a lockdown.
I think human life as we know it is at an end. We will be living like this for years, maybe forever. I am questioning seriously whether I can live out my life in this enforced isolation.
No chance.
Isolation while we flatten the curve and build up NHS capacity, testing and tracking/tracing capacity and PPE capacity makes sense.
Once capacity is up there is zero reason to maintain the lockdown.
That’s not what the Government is saying. They say there has to be no chance of a second wave. That will never happen. Living in this half existence forever is simply not worth it. It’s not even living, it’s existing. There is no hope.
They're saying there has to be no chance of a second wave that will overwhelm the NHS.
Once we have flattened the curve, upgraded NHS capacity, upgraded testing capacity, upgraded testing and tracking/tracity capacity and upgraded PPE capacity then there would be no chance of that.
That small change to point 5 of the PowerPoint slide was flatly contradicted by Raab today. Listening to him today convinced me that is really no reason to continue. It’s over.
That change to point 5 matches what Raab always said.
You are a member of the Conservative Party. I’m have no interest in spinning what he said. This is going to last for years, maybe for the rest of our lives. Frankly I am not going to spend decades like this. If you think this is living that’s your problem.
My politics have nothing to do with it and I have no interest in spin. There is not the slightest chance of this happening for years and the Guardian and a government spokesmen already confirmed earlier the Point 5 issue.
I wish I could believe that.
Its realpolitik and a self-fulfilling prophecy.
People simply won't endure this forever so it can't happen forever so it won't happen forever.
Interesting to note the transport usage slide from today's Government briefing showing car usage creeping back above 40% - since Easter the weekday traffic level had crept up slightly week on week. Public transport usage remains very low - the London Underground up very slightly but less than 10% of normal with rail travel almost moribund.
This must be a disaster for the train operators who are running empty trains up and down the lines - I suppose those who have already paid for their journeys with season tickets might feel aggrieved but presumably there are compensation schemes in place.
Look North did a report on the 09:00 Sheffield to St Pancras. One passenger as far as Leicester then none at all for the rest of the journey. Their average loading is 6 people.
Mr Johnson, 55, and Ms Symonds, 32, announced in March that they were expecting a baby in "early summer", and that they had become engaged at the end of last year. They are the first unmarried couple to move into Downing Street together.
An exasperated David Lloyd George and Frances Stevenson wave hello.
Did DLG move in at the same time as FS?
LG became Chancellor in April 1908 but Stevenson was not hired as tutor to Megan until July 1911.
Germans estimating Rt back at 0.75, so the apparent bounce was seemingly just noise. Probably quite important for our policy-makers.
Probably not. It's given them a great excuse for doing nothing a week Thursday, which is exactly what they wanted to do anyway.
SAGE needs balancing with other risk, behavioural, social and economic advisors.
I am expecting Boris to announce on 7 May:
Opening of smaller non-essential shops and of course garden centres subject to social distancing measures
A relaxation to social distancing within houses to allow family members in different residences to meet
To apply from 11 May.
Partial reopening of schools 1 June
Restaurants, gyms and possibly pubs with restrictions 22 June
Relaxation of restrictions 12 July
These are all at three week intervals and will be subject to ongoing assessment against the 5 tests
I don't think non essential shops will happen - the whole point of the lockdown at the moment is we only go out if we have a reason to. Non essential changes that entirely.
I suspect first step of easing will be, announced on 7th May, tips open if you have to go to them, from May 21st.
Schools - not this school year.
Ok but the government does need to set out a route to some sort of normal to a. give the population something to look to and b. save the economy. You may be right on schools in particular, if it was partial from 1 June that means some children would only go back say 22 June ie 4 weeks before end of school year, ie why bother?
Normal is going to be very slow - and probably not until we have a vaccine or treatment.
OK, PB fountain of knowledge, I need help with a quiz question:
Who was the last (major party) losing candidate, at a U.S. Presidential election, to fail to be elected (or take office), on more than the one occasion?
Germans estimating Rt back at 0.75, so the apparent bounce was seemingly just noise. Probably quite important for our policy-makers.
Probably not. It's given them a great excuse for doing nothing a week Thursday, which is exactly what they wanted to do anyway.
SAGE needs balancing with other risk, behavioural, social and economic advisors.
I am expecting Boris to announce on 7 May:
Opening of smaller non-essential shops and of course garden centres subject to social distancing measures
A relaxation to social distancing within houses to allow family members in different residences to meet
To apply from 11 May.
Partial reopening of schools 1 June
Restaurants, gyms and possibly pubs with restrictions 22 June
Relaxation of restrictions 12 July
These are all at three week intervals and will be subject to ongoing assessment against the 5 tests
I don't think non essential shops will happen - the whole point of the lockdown at the moment is we only go out if we have a reason to. Non essential changes that entirely.
I suspect first step of easing will be, announced on 7th May, tips open if you have to go to them, from May 21st.
Schools - not this school year.
In person education, retail shopping, gyms, team sport, anything else that involves human interaction is over. They will never reopen. Human life as we knew it is finished.
Germans estimating Rt back at 0.75, so the apparent bounce was seemingly just noise. Probably quite important for our policy-makers.
Probably not. It's given them a great excuse for doing nothing a week Thursday, which is exactly what they wanted to do anyway.
SAGE needs balancing with other risk, behavioural, social and economic advisors.
I am expecting Boris to announce on 7 May:
Opening of smaller non-essential shops and of course garden centres subject to social distancing measures
A relaxation to social distancing within houses to allow family members in different residences to meet
To apply from 11 May.
Partial reopening of schools 1 June
Restaurants, gyms and possibly pubs with restrictions 22 June
Relaxation of restrictions 12 July
These are all at three week intervals and will be subject to ongoing assessment against the 5 tests
I don't think non essential shops will happen - the whole point of the lockdown at the moment is we only go out if we have a reason to. Non essential changes that entirely.
I suspect first step of easing will be, announced on 7th May, tips open if you have to go to them, from May 21st.
Schools - not this school year.
Ok but the government does need to set out a route to some sort of normal to a. give the population something to look to and b. save the economy. You may be right on schools in particular, if it was partial from 1 June that means some children would only go back say 22 June ie 4 weeks before end of school year, ie why bother?
Normal is going to be very slow - and probably not until we have a vaccine or treatment.
Will never happen. Our old lives are over. All we have now is the four walls of our homes.
Germans estimating Rt back at 0.75, so the apparent bounce was seemingly just noise. Probably quite important for our policy-makers.
Probably not. It's given them a great excuse for doing nothing a week Thursday, which is exactly what they wanted to do anyway.
SAGE needs balancing with other risk, behavioural, social and economic advisors.
I am expecting Boris to announce on 7 May:
Opening of smaller non-essential shops and of course garden centres subject to social distancing measures
A relaxation to social distancing within houses to allow family members in different residences to meet
To apply from 11 May.
Partial reopening of schools 1 June
Restaurants, gyms and possibly pubs with restrictions 22 June
Relaxation of restrictions 12 July
These are all at three week intervals and will be subject to ongoing assessment against the 5 tests
I don't think non essential shops will happen - the whole point of the lockdown at the moment is we only go out if we have a reason to. Non essential changes that entirely.
I suspect first step of easing will be, announced on 7th May, tips open if you have to go to them, from May 21st.
Schools - not this school year.
In person education, retail shopping, gyms, team sport, anything else that involves human interaction is over. They will never reopen. Human life as we knew it is finished.
Vaccine or treatment - no bug has ever beaten us yet. We're a resilient lot.
Just heard from another of my wife's friends, this time in Munich (a perk of being a TOEFL teacher is getting friendships with former students all over the world) that after shops re-opened there recently, cases have shot back up again and they may have to go back to a lockdown.
I think human life as we know it is at an end. We will be living like this for years, maybe forever. I am questioning seriously whether I can live out my life in this enforced isolation.
No chance.
Isolation while we flatten the curve and build up NHS capacity, testing and tracking/tracing capacity and PPE capacity makes sense.
Once capacity is up there is zero reason to maintain the lockdown.
That’s not what the Government is saying. They say there has to be no chance of a second wave. That will never happen. Living in this half existence forever is simply not worth it. It’s not even living, it’s existing. There is no hope.
They're saying there has to be no chance of a second wave that will overwhelm the NHS.
Once we have flattened the curve, upgraded NHS capacity, upgraded testing capacity, upgraded testing and tracking/tracity capacity and upgraded PPE capacity then there would be no chance of that.
That small change to point 5 of the PowerPoint slide was flatly contradicted by Raab today. Listening to him today convinced me that is really no reason to continue. It’s over.
That change to point 5 matches what Raab always said.
You are a member of the Conservative Party. I’m have no interest in spinning what he said. This is going to last for years, maybe for the rest of our lives. Frankly I am not going to spend decades like this. If you think this is living that’s your problem.
Courage, mon brave.
Let's imagine a worst case scenario from a science point of view. There's no usable vaccine, infection only gives some immunity. What would we do?
Now, I'm not an expert. I teach physics for a living. But the outlines of the new worst-case life are pretty clear.
We keep taking hygiene seriously. Because in the last few decades, frankly, we got decadent about it.
We do lots (and I mean lots) of testing. We know that can be done. If it's a matter of survival, we can do more; it's just a question of resources.
We do lots of contact tracing. Even if it's not perfect and doesn't catch every infection chain, it will break a lot of them, which wasn't happening in the UK in February.
We keep the ability to throw up a Nightingale wherever and whenever we need one.
We work out what a good death is for those who die from this. What's the network of hospices like, to what extent can we safely let the dying see relatives?
And then... we take a deep breath... we thank our lucky stars to be alive in a prosperous place at a prosperous time, because here and now followed by a depression is still pretty peachy in the grand scheme of things, and we get on with rebuilding the rest of our lives.
Lockdown now is worth doing, to stop more people dying while we work out what the hell is going on. It's going to go on longer than many would want, because working out takes time. But it's not forever.
Just heard from another of my wife's friends, this time in Munich (a perk of being a TOEFL teacher is getting friendships with former students all over the world) that after shops re-opened there recently, cases have shot back up again and they may have to go back to a lockdown.
I think human life as we know it is at an end. We will be living like this for years, maybe forever. I am questioning seriously whether I can live out my life in this enforced isolation.
No chance.
Isolation while we flatten the curve and build up NHS capacity, testing and tracking/tracing capacity and PPE capacity makes sense.
Once capacity is up there is zero reason to maintain the lockdown.
That’s not what the Government is saying. They say there has to be no chance of a second wave. That will never happen. Living in this half existence forever is simply not worth it. It’s not even living, it’s existing. There is no hope.
They're saying there has to be no chance of a second wave that will overwhelm the NHS.
Once we have flattened the curve, upgraded NHS capacity, upgraded testing capacity, upgraded testing and tracking/tracity capacity and upgraded PPE capacity then there would be no chance of that.
That small change to point 5 of the PowerPoint slide was flatly contradicted by Raab today. Listening to him today convinced me that is really no reason to continue. It’s over.
That change to point 5 matches what Raab always said.
You are a member of the Conservative Party. I’m have no interest in spinning what he said. This is going to last for years, maybe for the rest of our lives. Frankly I am not going to spend decades like this. If you think this is living that’s your problem.
My politics have nothing to do with it and I have no interest in spin. There is not the slightest chance of this happening for years and the Guardian and a government spokesmen already confirmed earlier the Point 5 issue.
I wish I could believe that.
Its realpolitik and a self-fulfilling prophecy.
People simply won't endure this forever so it can't happen forever so it won't happen forever.
I’ve got an opinion poll or two to show you about that
OK, PB fountain of knowledge, I need help with a quiz question:
Who was the last (major party) losing candidate, at a U.S. Presidential election, to fail to be elected (or take office), on more than the one occasion?
OK, PB fountain of knowledge, I need help with a quiz question:
Who was the last (major party) losing candidate, at a U.S. Presidential election, to fail to be elected (or take office), on more than the one occasion?
Just heard from another of my wife's friends, this time in Munich (a perk of being a TOEFL teacher is getting friendships with former students all over the world) that after shops re-opened there recently, cases have shot back up again and they may have to go back to a lockdown.
I think human life as we know it is at an end. We will be living like this for years, maybe forever. I am questioning seriously whether I can live out my life in this enforced isolation.
No chance.
Isolation while we flatten the curve and build up NHS capacity, testing and tracking/tracing capacity and PPE capacity makes sense.
Once capacity is up there is zero reason to maintain the lockdown.
That’s not what the Government is saying. They say there has to be no chance of a second wave. That will never happen. Living in this half existence forever is simply not worth it. It’s not even living, it’s existing. There is no hope.
They're saying there has to be no chance of a second wave that will overwhelm the NHS.
Once we have flattened the curve, upgraded NHS capacity, upgraded testing capacity, upgraded testing and tracking/tracity capacity and upgraded PPE capacity then there would be no chance of that.
That small change to point 5 of the PowerPoint slide was flatly contradicted by Raab today. Listening to him today convinced me that is really no reason to continue. It’s over.
That change to point 5 matches what Raab always said.
You are a member of the Conservative Party. I’m have no interest in spinning what he said. This is going to last for years, maybe for the rest of our lives. Frankly I am not going to spend decades like this. If you think this is living that’s your problem.
My politics have nothing to do with it and I have no interest in spin. There is not the slightest chance of this happening for years and the Guardian and a government spokesmen already confirmed earlier the Point 5 issue.
I wish I could believe that.
Its realpolitik and a self-fulfilling prophecy.
People simply won't endure this forever so it can't happen forever so it won't happen forever.
I’ve got an opinion poll or two to show you about that
Just heard from another of my wife's friends, this time in Munich (a perk of being a TOEFL teacher is getting friendships with former students all over the world) that after shops re-opened there recently, cases have shot back up again and they may have to go back to a lockdown.
I think human life as we know it is at an end. We will be living like this for years, maybe forever. I am questioning seriously whether I can live out my life in this enforced isolation.
No chance.
Isolation while we flatten the curve and build up NHS capacity, testing and tracking/tracing capacity and PPE capacity makes sense.
Once capacity is up there is zero reason to maintain the lockdown.
That’s not what the Government is saying. They say there has to be no chance of a second wave. That will never happen. Living in this half existence forever is simply not worth it. It’s not even living, it’s existing. There is no hope.
They're saying there has to be no chance of a second wave that will overwhelm the NHS.
Once we have flattened the curve, upgraded NHS capacity, upgraded testing capacity, upgraded testing and tracking/tracity capacity and upgraded PPE capacity then there would be no chance of that.
That small change to point 5 of the PowerPoint slide was flatly contradicted by Raab today. Listening to him today convinced me that is really no reason to continue. It’s over.
That change to point 5 matches what Raab always said.
You are a member of the Conservative Party. I’m have no interest in spinning what he said. This is going to last for years, maybe for the rest of our lives. Frankly I am not going to spend decades like this. If you think this is living that’s your problem.
Courage, mon brave.
Let's imagine a worst case scenario from a science point of view. There's no usable vaccine, infection only gives some immunity. What would we do?
Now, I'm not an expert. I teach physics for a living. But the outlines of the new worst-case life are pretty clear.
We keep taking hygiene seriously. Because in the last few decades, frankly, we got decadent about it.
We do lots (and I mean lots) of testing. We know that can be done. If it's a matter of survival, we can do more; it's just a question of resources.
We do lots of contact tracing. Even if it's not perfect and doesn't catch every infection chain, it will break a lot of them, which wasn't happening in the UK in February.
We keep the ability to throw up a Nightingale wherever and whenever we need one.
We work out what a good death is for those who die from this. What's the network of hospices like, to what extent can we safely let the dying see relatives?
And then... we take a deep breath... we thank our lucky stars to be alive in a prosperous place at a prosperous time, because here and now followed by a depression is still pretty peachy in the grand scheme of things, and we get on with rebuilding the rest of our lives.
Lockdown now is worth doing, to stop more people dying while we work out what the hell is going on. It's going to go on longer than many would want, because working out takes time. But it's not forever.
It’s over. Life is over. There’s no f’ing point anymore.
ICL model infection update looks a bit more positive for us now - daily infection count coming down by 5.7% per day. If that continues we'll be at 2k/day start of June (vs peak 264k/day pre-lockdown, and 79k a few days after).
I'm still waiting for someone to tell me how many people have or have had the covid-19 virus - not the cases reported but an estimate of the proportion of reported cases to unreported cases.
There are 165,000 cases (existing and previous) but obviously that excludes those who haven't reported because the symptoms are mild let alone the asymptomatic. If, for example, there are 10 unreported cases for every reported we are looking at 1.65 million people who have or have had covid-19 but that is barely 2.5% of the population so a long way from any kind of "herd immunity".
From another direction, what is the true mortality rate? 29,000 deaths from 165,000 cases loos pretty high but 29,000 from 1.65 million doesn't. I've seen estimates of mortality rates from 0.2% to 1%. If the former the number who have or have had the virus could be 14.5 million which seems implausible. If the latter 2.9 million which may be more likely or it may not.
Just heard from another of my wife's friends, this time in Munich (a perk of being a TOEFL teacher is getting friendships with former students all over the world) that after shops re-opened there recently, cases have shot back up again and they may have to go back to a lockdown.
I think human life as we know it is at an end. We will be living like this for years, maybe forever. I am questioning seriously whether I can live out my life in this enforced isolation.
No chance.
Isolation while we flatten the curve and build up NHS capacity, testing and tracking/tracing capacity and PPE capacity makes sense.
Once capacity is up there is zero reason to maintain the lockdown.
That’s not what the Government is saying. They say there has to be no chance of a second wave. That will never happen. Living in this half existence forever is simply not worth it. It’s not even living, it’s existing. There is no hope.
They're saying there has to be no chance of a second wave that will overwhelm the NHS.
Once we have flattened the curve, upgraded NHS capacity, upgraded testing capacity, upgraded testing and tracking/tracity capacity and upgraded PPE capacity then there would be no chance of that.
That small change to point 5 of the PowerPoint slide was flatly contradicted by Raab today. Listening to him today convinced me that is really no reason to continue. It’s over.
That change to point 5 matches what Raab always said.
You are a member of the Conservative Party. I’m have no interest in spinning what he said. This is going to last for years, maybe for the rest of our lives. Frankly I am not going to spend decades like this. If you think this is living that’s your problem.
Courage, mon brave.
Let's imagine a worst case scenario from a science point of view. There's no usable vaccine, infection only gives some immunity. What would we do?
Now, I'm not an expert. I teach physics for a living. But the outlines of the new worst-case life are pretty clear.
We keep taking hygiene seriously. Because in the last few decades, frankly, we got decadent about it.
We do lots (and I mean lots) of testing. We know that can be done. If it's a matter of survival, we can do more; it's just a question of resources.
We do lots of contact tracing. Even if it's not perfect and doesn't catch every infection chain, it will break a lot of them, which wasn't happening in the UK in February.
We keep the ability to throw up a Nightingale wherever and whenever we need one.
We work out what a good death is for those who die from this. What's the network of hospices like, to what extent can we safely let the dying see relatives?
And then... we take a deep breath... we thank our lucky stars to be alive in a prosperous place at a prosperous time, because here and now followed by a depression is still pretty peachy in the grand scheme of things, and we get on with rebuilding the rest of our lives.
Lockdown now is worth doing, to stop more people dying while we work out what the hell is going on. It's going to go on longer than many would want, because working out takes time. But it's not forever.
Just heard from another of my wife's friends, this time in Munich (a perk of being a TOEFL teacher is getting friendships with former students all over the world) that after shops re-opened there recently, cases have shot back up again and they may have to go back to a lockdown.
I think human life as we know it is at an end. We will be living like this for years, maybe forever. I am questioning seriously whether I can live out my life in this enforced isolation.
No chance.
Isolation while we flatten the curve and build up NHS capacity, testing and tracking/tracing capacity and PPE capacity makes sense.
Once capacity is up there is zero reason to maintain the lockdown.
That’s not what the Government is saying. They say there has to be no chance of a second wave. That will never happen. Living in this half existence forever is simply not worth it. It’s not even living, it’s existing. There is no hope.
They're saying there has to be no chance of a second wave that will overwhelm the NHS.
Once we have flattened the curve, upgraded NHS capacity, upgraded testing capacity, upgraded testing and tracking/tracity capacity and upgraded PPE capacity then there would be no chance of that.
That small change to point 5 of the PowerPoint slide was flatly contradicted by Raab today. Listening to him today convinced me that is really no reason to continue. It’s over.
That change to point 5 matches what Raab always said.
You are a member of the Conservative Party. I’m have no interest in spinning what he said. This is going to last for years, maybe for the rest of our lives. Frankly I am not going to spend decades like this. If you think this is living that’s your problem.
Courage, mon brave.
Let's imagine a worst case scenario from a science point of view. There's no usable vaccine, infection only gives some immunity. What would we do?
Now, I'm not an expert. I teach physics for a living. But the outlines of the new worst-case life are pretty clear.
We keep taking hygiene seriously. Because in the last few decades, frankly, we got decadent about it.
We do lots (and I mean lots) of testing. We know that can be done. If it's a matter of survival, we can do more; it's just a question of resources.
We do lots of contact tracing. Even if it's not perfect and doesn't catch every infection chain, it will break a lot of them, which wasn't happening in the UK in February.
We keep the ability to throw up a Nightingale wherever and whenever we need one.
We work out what a good death is for those who die from this. What's the network of hospices like, to what extent can we safely let the dying see relatives?
And then... we take a deep breath... we thank our lucky stars to be alive in a prosperous place at a prosperous time, because here and now followed by a depression is still pretty peachy in the grand scheme of things, and we get on with rebuilding the rest of our lives.
Lockdown now is worth doing, to stop more people dying while we work out what the hell is going on. It's going to go on longer than many would want, because working out takes time. But it's not forever.
It’s over. Life is over. There’s no f’ing point anymore.
Step back from the edge, take a deep breath and count to ten.
There is a point and life will find a way. It always does.
Germans estimating Rt back at 0.75, so the apparent bounce was seemingly just noise. Probably quite important for our policy-makers.
Probably not. It's given them a great excuse for doing nothing a week Thursday, which is exactly what they wanted to do anyway.
SAGE needs balancing with other risk, behavioural, social and economic advisors.
I am expecting Boris to announce on 7 May:
Opening of smaller non-essential shops and of course garden centres subject to social distancing measures
A relaxation to social distancing within houses to allow family members in different residences to meet
To apply from 11 May.
Partial reopening of schools 1 June
Restaurants, gyms and possibly pubs with restrictions 22 June
Relaxation of restrictions 12 July
These are all at three week intervals and will be subject to ongoing assessment against the 5 tests
I don't think non essential shops will happen - the whole point of the lockdown at the moment is we only go out if we have a reason to. Non essential changes that entirely.
I suspect first step of easing will be, announced on 7th May, tips open if you have to go to them, from May 21st.
Schools - not this school year.
In person education, retail shopping, gyms, team sport, anything else that involves human interaction is over. They will never reopen. Human life as we knew it is finished.
Vaccine or treatment - no bug has ever beaten us yet. We're a resilient lot.
A little naive. How have those vaccines and treatments for SARS worked out? We have played our last (legal) games of football. Been to our last concerts, plays, nightclubs. Held our last traditional weddings and parties. The enormity of it is too much to bear.
Germans estimating Rt back at 0.75, so the apparent bounce was seemingly just noise. Probably quite important for our policy-makers.
Probably not. It's given them a great excuse for doing nothing a week Thursday, which is exactly what they wanted to do anyway.
SAGE needs balancing with other risk, behavioural, social and economic advisors.
I am expecting Boris to announce on 7 May:
Opening of smaller non-essential shops and of course garden centres subject to social distancing measures
A relaxation to social distancing within houses to allow family members in different residences to meet
To apply from 11 May.
Partial reopening of schools 1 June
Restaurants, gyms and possibly pubs with restrictions 22 June
Relaxation of restrictions 12 July
These are all at three week intervals and will be subject to ongoing assessment against the 5 tests
I don't think non essential shops will happen - the whole point of the lockdown at the moment is we only go out if we have a reason to. Non essential changes that entirely.
I suspect first step of easing will be, announced on 7th May, tips open if you have to go to them, from May 21st.
Schools - not this school year.
In person education, retail shopping, gyms, team sport, anything else that involves human interaction is over. They will never reopen. Human life as we knew it is finished.
Vaccine or treatment - no bug has ever beaten us yet. We're a resilient lot.
A little naive. How have those vaccines and treatments for SARS worked out? We have played our last (legal) games of football. Been to our last concerts, plays, nightclubs. Held our last traditional weddings and parties. The enormity of it is too much to bear.
Are you another SeanT account? Is this past the lagershed hysteria?
Just heard from another of my wife's friends, this time in Munich (a perk of being a TOEFL teacher is getting friendships with former students all over the world) that after shops re-opened there recently, cases have shot back up again and they may have to go back to a lockdown.
I think human life as we know it is at an end. We will be living like this for years, maybe forever. I am questioning seriously whether I can live out my life in this enforced isolation.
No chance.
Isolation while we flatten the curve and build up NHS capacity, testing and tracking/tracing capacity and PPE capacity makes sense.
Once capacity is up there is zero reason to maintain the lockdown.
That’s not what the Government is saying. They say there has to be no chance of a second wave. That will never happen. Living in this half existence forever is simply not worth it. It’s not even living, it’s existing. There is no hope.
They're saying there has to be no chance of a second wave that will overwhelm the NHS.
Once we have flattened the curve, upgraded NHS capacity, upgraded testing capacity, upgraded testing and tracking/tracity capacity and upgraded PPE capacity then there would be no chance of that.
That small change to point 5 of the PowerPoint slide was flatly contradicted by Raab today. Listening to him today convinced me that is really no reason to continue. It’s over.
That change to point 5 matches what Raab always said.
You are a member of the Conservative Party. I’m have no interest in spinning what he said. This is going to last for years, maybe for the rest of our lives. Frankly I am not going to spend decades like this. If you think this is living that’s your problem.
Courage, mon brave.
Let's imagine a worst case scenario from a science point of view. There's no usable vaccine, infection only gives some immunity. What would we do?
Now, I'm not an expert. I teach physics for a living. But the outlines of the new worst-case life are pretty clear.
We keep taking hygiene seriously. Because in the last few decades, frankly, we got decadent about it.
We do lots (and I mean lots) of testing. We know that can be done. If it's a matter of survival, we can do more; it's just a question of resources.
We do lots of contact tracing. Even if it's not perfect and doesn't catch every infection chain, it will break a lot of them, which wasn't happening in the UK in February.
We keep the ability to throw up a Nightingale wherever and whenever we need one.
We work out what a good death is for those who die from this. What's the network of hospices like, to what extent can we safely let the dying see relatives?
And then... we take a deep breath... we thank our lucky stars to be alive in a prosperous place at a prosperous time, because here and now followed by a depression is still pretty peachy in the grand scheme of things, and we get on with rebuilding the rest of our lives.
Lockdown now is worth doing, to stop more people dying while we work out what the hell is going on. It's going to go on longer than many would want, because working out takes time. But it's not forever.
It’s over. Life is over. There’s no f’ing point anymore.
Step back from the edge, take a deep breath and count to ten.
There is a point and life will find a way. It always does.
I'm still waiting for someone to tell me how many people have or have had the covid-19 virus - not the cases reported but an estimate of the proportion of reported cases to unreported cases.
ICL estimate is 4.16%, or 2.8 million - albeit with huge errorbars (1.99m-3.98m)
If we take ONS excess mortality, 27k for England & Wales as of ~Apr13th, scale to UK population and look at estimated infections on that date, it comes out with a mortality rate of 1.7%. That does seem a lot too high.
Germans estimating Rt back at 0.75, so the apparent bounce was seemingly just noise. Probably quite important for our policy-makers.
Probably not. It's given them a great excuse for doing nothing a week Thursday, which is exactly what they wanted to do anyway.
SAGE needs balancing with other risk, behavioural, social and economic advisors.
I am expecting Boris to announce on 7 May:
Opening of smaller non-essential shops and of course garden centres subject to social distancing measures
A relaxation to social distancing within houses to allow family members in different residences to meet
To apply from 11 May.
Partial reopening of schools 1 June
Restaurants, gyms and possibly pubs with restrictions 22 June
Relaxation of restrictions 12 July
These are all at three week intervals and will be subject to ongoing assessment against the 5 tests
I don't think non essential shops will happen - the whole point of the lockdown at the moment is we only go out if we have a reason to. Non essential changes that entirely.
I suspect first step of easing will be, announced on 7th May, tips open if you have to go to them, from May 21st.
Schools - not this school year.
In person education, retail shopping, gyms, team sport, anything else that involves human interaction is over. They will never reopen. Human life as we knew it is finished.
Vaccine or treatment - no bug has ever beaten us yet. We're a resilient lot.
A little naive. How have those vaccines and treatments for SARS worked out? We have played our last (legal) games of football. Been to our last concerts, plays, nightclubs. Held our last traditional weddings and parties. The enormity of it is too much to bear.
Well, we beat SARS 1 - so I suspect we'll manage this one too.
Germans estimating Rt back at 0.75, so the apparent bounce was seemingly just noise. Probably quite important for our policy-makers.
Probably not. It's given them a great excuse for doing nothing a week Thursday, which is exactly what they wanted to do anyway.
SAGE needs balancing with other risk, behavioural, social and economic advisors.
I am expecting Boris to announce on 7 May:
Opening of smaller non-essential shops and of course garden centres subject to social distancing measures
A relaxation to social distancing within houses to allow family members in different residences to meet
To apply from 11 May.
Partial reopening of schools 1 June
Restaurants, gyms and possibly pubs with restrictions 22 June
Relaxation of restrictions 12 July
These are all at three week intervals and will be subject to ongoing assessment against the 5 tests
I don't think non essential shops will happen - the whole point of the lockdown at the moment is we only go out if we have a reason to. Non essential changes that entirely.
I suspect first step of easing will be, announced on 7th May, tips open if you have to go to them, from May 21st.
Schools - not this school year.
What's "essential" ?
B&Q has entirely reopened, and Burger King, KFC, Nandos and McDonalds are reopening more restaurants every day.
It's already flipped from 'non essential' to 'can we effectively conduct retail business with social distancing where people come occasionally but don't take the piss'.
Germans estimating Rt back at 0.75, so the apparent bounce was seemingly just noise. Probably quite important for our policy-makers.
Probably not. It's given them a great excuse for doing nothing a week Thursday, which is exactly what they wanted to do anyway.
SAGE needs balancing with other risk, behavioural, social and economic advisors.
I am expecting Boris to announce on 7 May:
Opening of smaller non-essential shops and of course garden centres subject to social distancing measures
A relaxation to social distancing within houses to allow family members in different residences to meet
To apply from 11 May.
Partial reopening of schools 1 June
Restaurants, gyms and possibly pubs with restrictions 22 June
Relaxation of restrictions 12 July
These are all at three week intervals and will be subject to ongoing assessment against the 5 tests
I don't think non essential shops will happen - the whole point of the lockdown at the moment is we only go out if we have a reason to. Non essential changes that entirely.
I suspect first step of easing will be, announced on 7th May, tips open if you have to go to them, from May 21st.
Schools - not this school year.
In person education, retail shopping, gyms, team sport, anything else that involves human interaction is over. They will never reopen. Human life as we knew it is finished.
Vaccine or treatment - no bug has ever beaten us yet. We're a resilient lot.
A little naive. How have those vaccines and treatments for SARS worked out? We have played our last (legal) games of football. Been to our last concerts, plays, nightclubs. Held our last traditional weddings and parties. The enormity of it is too much to bear.
Well, we beat SARS 1 - so I suspect we'll manage this one too.
It was contained. It’s too late for that. It’s too late for anything.
Going forward I think the approach is obviously going to vary according to how effective employers find WFH to be and how much money it saves them. You'll get some companies that will dispense entirely with centralised offices, others that will keep small premises to use to hold periodic meetings, some will want to operate more in the manner that you describe (part-time working in the office and part-time at home,) and some businesses - though I would guess only a minority - will want everyone back in the office as soon as social distancing ends or they can find enough space to work around it.
My husband's office has everyone working from home at the moment, but latest news is that they're looking at how many employees they can accommodate whilst sticking to the distancing rules and that this is likely to lead to rotation of staff in and out (albeit that he personally will probably be stuck at home for the duration on account of his asthma.) However, no movement in that direction likely until June at the earliest.
At last, a subject worth discussing instead of how anyone with a little knowledge of Excel can set the public agenda with a few lines and graphs
I've been tasked with looking at this for a few clients - my first guesstimate is current office configurations will allow 50-60% of staff to return with adequate distancing. The big problem areas are meeting rooms and one of my clients is of the view the price of office space will collapse meaning they can rent more space and accommodate more of their staff even with diatancing.
As far as the working part of working at home is concerned, I've encouraged clients to allow virtual social gatherings such as the Digital Cuppa or the Virtual Watercooler. This is a recognition a part of work isn't work at all but social interaction or socialisation whether it's talking football or the latest thing on Netflix or whatever. There are one or two managers who think people should work more because they aren't travelling but that's now how working at home operates or in my view should operate - it's your home not your prison.
Quite. My employer encourages people to use our company intranet and other available technology to take part in whatever social activity is possible under circumstances where those working from home cannot, of course, meet each other physically. Having as few employees going mad as a result of the lockdown as possible seems to be regarded as a priority.
Consequently, half the content of the intranet presently consists of photos of cute pets and discussions about the relative merits of different biscuits; the other half is all to do either with health and safety at work, or concepts in industrial chemistry that are probably only full comprehensible to about eight people on Earth.
Just heard from another of my wife's friends, this time in Munich (a perk of being a TOEFL teacher is getting friendships with former students all over the world) that after shops re-opened there recently, cases have shot back up again and they may have to go back to a lockdown.
I think human life as we know it is at an end. We will be living like this for years, maybe forever. I am questioning seriously whether I can live out my life in this enforced isolation.
No chance.
Isolation while we flatten the curve and build up NHS capacity, testing and tracking/tracing capacity and PPE capacity makes sense.
Once capacity is up there is zero reason to maintain the lockdown.
That’s not what the Government is saying. They say there has to be no chance of a second wave. That will never happen. Living in this half existence forever is simply not worth it. It’s not even living, it’s existing. There is no hope.
They're saying there has to be no chance of a second wave that will overwhelm the NHS.
Once we have flattened the curve, upgraded NHS capacity, upgraded testing capacity, upgraded testing and tracking/tracity capacity and upgraded PPE capacity then there would be no chance of that.
That small change to point 5 of the PowerPoint slide was flatly contradicted by Raab today. Listening to him today convinced me that is really no reason to continue. It’s over.
That change to point 5 matches what Raab always said.
You are a member of the Conservative Party. I’m have no interest in spinning what he said. This is going to last for years, maybe for the rest of our lives. Frankly I am not going to spend decades like this. If you think this is living that’s your problem.
Courage, mon brave.
Let's imagine a worst case scenario from a science point of view. There's no usable vaccine, infection only gives some immunity. What would we do?
Now, I'm not an expert. I teach physics for a living. But the outlines of the new worst-case life are pretty clear.
We keep taking hygiene seriously. Because in the last few decades, frankly, we got decadent about it.
We do lots (and I mean lots) of testing. We know that can be done. If it's a matter of survival, we can do more; it's just a question of resources.
We do lots of contact tracing. Even if it's not perfect and doesn't catch every infection chain, it will break a lot of them, which wasn't happening in the UK in February.
We keep the ability to throw up a Nightingale wherever and whenever we need one.
We work out what a good death is for those who die from this. What's the network of hospices like, to what extent can we safely let the dying see relatives?
And then... we take a deep breath... we thank our lucky stars to be alive in a prosperous place at a prosperous time, because here and now followed by a depression is still pretty peachy in the grand scheme of things, and we get on with rebuilding the rest of our lives.
Lockdown now is worth doing, to stop more people dying while we work out what the hell is going on. It's going to go on longer than many would want, because working out takes time. But it's not forever.
It’s over. Life is over. There’s no f’ing point anymore.
It's time to ease up on aspects of the absolute lockdown. These need to be measured, progressive, and cautious.
That much is clear. Arguments against it (and sustaining it until things become "clear" - code for a vaccine) are just driven by irrational fear.
Just heard from another of my wife's friends, this time in Munich (a perk of being a TOEFL teacher is getting friendships with former students all over the world) that after shops re-opened there recently, cases have shot back up again and they may have to go back to a lockdown.
I think human life as we know it is at an end. We will be living like this for years, maybe forever. I am questioning seriously whether I can live out my life in this enforced isolation.
No chance.
Isolation while we flatten the curve and build up NHS capacity, testing and tracking/tracing capacity and PPE capacity makes sense.
Once capacity is up there is zero reason to maintain the lockdown.
That’s not what the Government is saying. They say there has to be no chance of a second wave. That will never happen. Living in this half existence forever is simply not worth it. It’s not even living, it’s existing. There is no hope.
They're saying there has to be no chance of a second wave that will overwhelm the NHS.
Once we have flattened the curve, upgraded NHS capacity, upgraded testing capacity, upgraded testing and tracking/tracity capacity and upgraded PPE capacity then there would be no chance of that.
That small change to point 5 of the PowerPoint slide was flatly contradicted by Raab today. Listening to him today convinced me that is really no reason to continue. It’s over.
That change to point 5 matches what Raab always said.
You are a member of the Conservative Party. I’m have no interest in spinning what he said. This is going to last for years, maybe for the rest of our lives. Frankly I am not going to spend decades like this. If you think this is living that’s your problem.
Courage, mon brave.
Let's imagine a worst case scenario from a science point of view. There's no usable vaccine, infection only gives some immunity. What would we do?
Now, I'm not an expert. I teach physics for a living. But the outlines of the new worst-case life are pretty clear.
We keep taking hygiene seriously. Because in the last few decades, frankly, we got decadent about it.
We do lots (and I mean lots) of testing. We know that can be done. If it's a matter of survival, we can do more; it's just a question of resources.
We do lots of contact tracing. Even if it's not perfect and doesn't catch every infection chain, it will break a lot of them, which wasn't happening in the UK in February.
We keep the ability to throw up a Nightingale wherever and whenever we need one.
We work out what a good death is for those who die from this. What's the network of hospices like, to what extent can we safely let the dying see relatives?
And then... we take a deep breath... we thank our lucky stars to be alive in a prosperous place at a prosperous time, because here and now followed by a depression is still pretty peachy in the grand scheme of things, and we get on with rebuilding the rest of our lives.
Lockdown now is worth doing, to stop more people dying while we work out what the hell is going on. It's going to go on longer than many would want, because working out takes time. But it's not forever.
It’s over. Life is over. There’s no f’ing point anymore.
Step back from the edge, take a deep breath and count to ten.
There is a point and life will find a way. It always does.
Just heard from another of my wife's friends, this time in Munich (a perk of being a TOEFL teacher is getting friendships with former students all over the world) that after shops re-opened there recently, cases have shot back up again and they may have to go back to a lockdown.
I think human life as we know it is at an end. We will be living like this for years, maybe forever. I am questioning seriously whether I can live out my life in this enforced isolation.
No chance.
Isolation while we flatten the curve and build up NHS capacity, testing and tracking/tracing capacity and PPE capacity makes sense.
Once capacity is up there is zero reason to maintain the lockdown.
That’s not what the Government is saying. They say there has to be no chance of a second wave. That will never happen. Living in this half existence forever is simply not worth it. It’s not even living, it’s existing. There is no hope.
They're saying there has to be no chance of a second wave that will overwhelm the NHS.
Once we have flattened the curve, upgraded NHS capacity, upgraded testing capacity, upgraded testing and tracking/tracity capacity and upgraded PPE capacity then there would be no chance of that.
That small change to point 5 of the PowerPoint slide was flatly contradicted by Raab today. Listening to him today convinced me that is really no reason to continue. It’s over.
That change to point 5 matches what Raab always said.
You are a member of the Conservative Party. I’m have no interest in spinning what he said. This is going to last for years, maybe for the rest of our lives. Frankly I am not going to spend decades like this. If you think this is living that’s your problem.
Courage, mon brave.
Let's imagine a worst case scenario from a science point of view. There's no usable vaccine, infection only gives some immunity. What would we do?
Now, I'm not an expert. I teach physics for a living. But the outlines of the new worst-case life are pretty clear.
We keep taking hygiene seriously. Because in the last few decades, frankly, we got decadent about it.
We do lots (and I mean lots) of testing. We know that can be done. If it's a matter of survival, we can do more; it's just a question of resources.
We do lots of contact tracing. Even if it's not perfect and doesn't catch every infection chain, it will break a lot of them, which wasn't happening in the UK in February.
We keep the ability to throw up a Nightingale wherever and whenever we need one.
We work out what a good death is for those who die from this. What's the network of hospices like, to what extent can we safely let the dying see relatives?
And then... we take a deep breath... we thank our lucky stars to be alive in a prosperous place at a prosperous time, because here and now followed by a depression is still pretty peachy in the grand scheme of things, and we get on with rebuilding the rest of our lives.
Lockdown now is worth doing, to stop more people dying while we work out what the hell is going on. It's going to go on longer than many would want, because working out takes time. But it's not forever.
It’s over. Life is over. There’s no f’ing point anymore.
Step back from the edge, take a deep breath and count to ten.
There is a point and life will find a way. It always does.
Does it?
If you want assurance things that definitely make life worth living then look at Switzerland who are going to open up bars , cinemas etc in the next couple of weeks. I would also recommend not using this site much as well.There are intelligent people on here but a lot play a game with stats , etc - usually about death rates etc . Far better to watch something more hopeful as well for the mood.
Just heard from another of my wife's friends, this time in Munich (a perk of being a TOEFL teacher is getting friendships with former students all over the world) that after shops re-opened there recently, cases have shot back up again and they may have to go back to a lockdown.
I think human life as we know it is at an end. We will be living like this for years, maybe forever. I am questioning seriously whether I can live out my life in this enforced isolation.
No chance.
Isolation while we flatten the curve and build up NHS capacity, testing and tracking/tracing capacity and PPE capacity makes sense.
Once capacity is up there is zero reason to maintain the lockdown.
That’s not what the Government is saying. They say there has to be no chance of a second wave. That will never happen. Living in this half existence forever is simply not worth it. It’s not even living, it’s existing. There is no hope.
They're saying there has to be no chance of a second wave that will overwhelm the NHS.
Once we have flattened the curve, upgraded NHS capacity, upgraded testing capacity, upgraded testing and tracking/tracity capacity and upgraded PPE capacity then there would be no chance of that.
That small change to point 5 of the PowerPoint slide was flatly contradicted by Raab today. Listening to him today convinced me that is really no reason to continue. It’s over.
That change to point 5 matches what Raab always said.
You are a member of the Conservative Party. I’m have no interest in spinning what he said. This is going to last for years, maybe for the rest of our lives. Frankly I am not going to spend decades like this. If you think this is living that’s your problem.
Courage, mon brave.
Let's imagine a worst case scenario from a science point of view. There's no usable vaccine, infection only gives some immunity. What would we do?
Now, I'm not an expert. I teach physics for a living. But the outlines of the new worst-case life are pretty clear.
We keep taking hygiene seriously. Because in the last few decades, frankly, we got decadent about it.
We do lots (and I mean lots) of testing. We know that can be done. If it's a matter of survival, we can do more; it's just a question of resources.
We do lots of contact tracing. Even if it's not perfect and doesn't catch every infection chain, it will break a lot of them, which wasn't happening in the UK in February.
We keep the ability to throw up a Nightingale wherever and whenever we need one.
We work out what a good death is for those who die from this. What's the network of hospices like, to what extent can we safely let the dying see relatives?
And then... we take a deep breath... we thank our lucky stars to be alive in a prosperous place at a prosperous time, because here and now followed by a depression is still pretty peachy in the grand scheme of things, and we get on with rebuilding the rest of our lives.
Lockdown now is worth doing, to stop more people dying while we work out what the hell is going on. It's going to go on longer than many would want, because working out takes time. But it's not forever.
It’s over. Life is over. There’s no f’ing point anymore.
Step back from the edge, take a deep breath and count to ten.
There is a point and life will find a way. It always does.
Germans estimating Rt back at 0.75, so the apparent bounce was seemingly just noise. Probably quite important for our policy-makers.
Probably not. It's given them a great excuse for doing nothing a week Thursday, which is exactly what they wanted to do anyway.
SAGE needs balancing with other risk, behavioural, social and economic advisors.
I am expecting Boris to announce on 7 May:
Opening of smaller non-essential shops and of course garden centres subject to social distancing measures
A relaxation to social distancing within houses to allow family members in different residences to meet
To apply from 11 May.
Partial reopening of schools 1 June
Restaurants, gyms and possibly pubs with restrictions 22 June
Relaxation of restrictions 12 July
These are all at three week intervals and will be subject to ongoing assessment against the 5 tests
I don't think non essential shops will happen - the whole point of the lockdown at the moment is we only go out if we have a reason to. Non essential changes that entirely.
I suspect first step of easing will be, announced on 7th May, tips open if you have to go to them, from May 21st.
Schools - not this school year.
What's "essential" ?
B&Q has entirely reopened, and Burger King, KFC, Nandos and McDonalds are reopening more restaurants every day.
It's already flipped from 'non essential' to 'can we effectively conduct retail business with social distancing where people come occasionally but don't take the piss'.
It hass't entirely reopened - our local (massive) one is only serving trade.
I'm bemused by these people fervently doing up their house. Relax and stay home, to protect the NHS and save lives. Haven't they been listening?
Germans estimating Rt back at 0.75, so the apparent bounce was seemingly just noise. Probably quite important for our policy-makers.
Probably not. It's given them a great excuse for doing nothing a week Thursday, which is exactly what they wanted to do anyway.
SAGE needs balancing with other risk, behavioural, social and economic advisors.
I am expecting Boris to announce on 7 May:
Opening of smaller non-essential shops and of course garden centres subject to social distancing measures
A relaxation to social distancing within houses to allow family members in different residences to meet
To apply from 11 May.
Partial reopening of schools 1 June
Restaurants, gyms and possibly pubs with restrictions 22 June
Relaxation of restrictions 12 July
These are all at three week intervals and will be subject to ongoing assessment against the 5 tests
I don't think non essential shops will happen - the whole point of the lockdown at the moment is we only go out if we have a reason to. Non essential changes that entirely.
I suspect first step of easing will be, announced on 7th May, tips open if you have to go to them, from May 21st.
Schools - not this school year.
What's "essential" ?
B&Q has entirely reopened, and Burger King, KFC, Nandos and McDonalds are reopening more restaurants every day.
It's already flipped from 'non essential' to 'can we effectively conduct retail business with social distancing where people come occasionally but don't take the piss'.
It hass't entirely reopened - our local (massive) one is only serving trade.
I'm bemused by these people fervently doing up their house. Relax and stay home, to protect the NHS and save lives. Haven't they been listening?
Germans estimating Rt back at 0.75, so the apparent bounce was seemingly just noise. Probably quite important for our policy-makers.
Probably not. It's given them a great excuse for doing nothing a week Thursday, which is exactly what they wanted to do anyway.
SAGE needs balancing with other risk, behavioural, social and economic advisors.
I am expecting Boris to announce on 7 May:
Opening of smaller non-essential shops and of course garden centres subject to social distancing measures
A relaxation to social distancing within houses to allow family members in different residences to meet
To apply from 11 May.
Partial reopening of schools 1 June
Restaurants, gyms and possibly pubs with restrictions 22 June
Relaxation of restrictions 12 July
These are all at three week intervals and will be subject to ongoing assessment against the 5 tests
I don't think non essential shops will happen - the whole point of the lockdown at the moment is we only go out if we have a reason to. Non essential changes that entirely.
I suspect first step of easing will be, announced on 7th May, tips open if you have to go to them, from May 21st.
Schools - not this school year.
In person education, retail shopping, gyms, team sport, anything else that involves human interaction is over. They will never reopen. Human life as we knew it is finished.
Vaccine or treatment - no bug has ever beaten us yet. We're a resilient lot.
A little naive. How have those vaccines and treatments for SARS worked out? We have played our last (legal) games of football. Been to our last concerts, plays, nightclubs. Held our last traditional weddings and parties. The enormity of it is too much to bear.
Well, we beat SARS 1 - so I suspect we'll manage this one too.
It was contained. It’s too late for that. It’s too late for anything.
Here's where New Zealand's strategy comes into its own.
Germans estimating Rt back at 0.75, so the apparent bounce was seemingly just noise. Probably quite important for our policy-makers.
Probably not. It's given them a great excuse for doing nothing a week Thursday, which is exactly what they wanted to do anyway.
SAGE needs balancing with other risk, behavioural, social and economic advisors.
I am expecting Boris to announce on 7 May:
Opening of smaller non-essential shops and of course garden centres subject to social distancing measures
A relaxation to social distancing within houses to allow family members in different residences to meet
To apply from 11 May.
Partial reopening of schools 1 June
Restaurants, gyms and possibly pubs with restrictions 22 June
Relaxation of restrictions 12 July
These are all at three week intervals and will be subject to ongoing assessment against the 5 tests
I don't think non essential shops will happen - the whole point of the lockdown at the moment is we only go out if we have a reason to. Non essential changes that entirely.
I suspect first step of easing will be, announced on 7th May, tips open if you have to go to them, from May 21st.
Schools - not this school year.
In person education, retail shopping, gyms, team sport, anything else that involves human interaction is over. They will never reopen. Human life as we knew it is finished.
Vaccine or treatment - no bug has ever beaten us yet. We're a resilient lot.
A little naive. How have those vaccines and treatments for SARS worked out? We have played our last (legal) games of football. Been to our last concerts, plays, nightclubs. Held our last traditional weddings and parties. The enormity of it is too much to bear.
I really worry that you are in such a stressful place.
Please try not to concentrate on the negatives as lockdown will ease over the coming months and while changes will happen in our lives we will adapt as we always do
My daughter is very upset today as a work colleague and friend of many years working in another local office took his life yesterday. These are serious times for mental health issues and keep posting and taking part on this forum
You are very important and I send my best wishes to you
OK, PB fountain of knowledge, I need help with a quiz question:
Who was the last (major party) losing candidate, at a U.S. Presidential election, to fail to be elected (or take office), on more than the one occasion?
Joe Biden, surely?!
Withdrawn - Democratic Candidacy
Adlai Stevenson lost two presidential elections in the 1950s.
OK, PB fountain of knowledge, I need help with a quiz question:
Who was the last (major party) losing candidate, at a U.S. Presidential election, to fail to be elected (or take office), on more than the one occasion?
The one that amazes me each time is just how many Electoral College votes Richard Nixon got.....including as VP and losing Pres. candidate in 1960.
Germans estimating Rt back at 0.75, so the apparent bounce was seemingly just noise. Probably quite important for our policy-makers.
Probably not. It's given them a great excuse for doing nothing a week Thursday, which is exactly what they wanted to do anyway.
SAGE needs balancing with other risk, behavioural, social and economic advisors.
I am expecting Boris to announce on 7 May:
Opening of smaller non-essential shops and of course garden centres subject to social distancing measures
A relaxation to social distancing within houses to allow family members in different residences to meet
To apply from 11 May.
Partial reopening of schools 1 June
Restaurants, gyms and possibly pubs with restrictions 22 June
Relaxation of restrictions 12 July
These are all at three week intervals and will be subject to ongoing assessment against the 5 tests
I don't think non essential shops will happen - the whole point of the lockdown at the moment is we only go out if we have a reason to. Non essential changes that entirely.
I suspect first step of easing will be, announced on 7th May, tips open if you have to go to them, from May 21st.
Schools - not this school year.
What's "essential" ?
B&Q has entirely reopened, and Burger King, KFC, Nandos and McDonalds are reopening more restaurants every day.
It's already flipped from 'non essential' to 'can we effectively conduct retail business with social distancing where people come occasionally but don't take the piss'.
It hass't entirely reopened - our local (massive) one is only serving trade.
I'm bemused by these people fervently doing up their house. Relax and stay home, to protect the NHS and save lives. Haven't they been listening?
Given that their homes are where they will spend virtually the total of their entire existence going forward until death, the urge to make them as habitable as possible before there is no such thing as B&Q anymore is at least rational.
Interesting to note the transport usage slide from today's Government briefing showing car usage creeping back above 40% - since Easter the weekday traffic level had crept up slightly week on week. Public transport usage remains very low - the London Underground up very slightly but less than 10% of normal with rail travel almost moribund.
This must be a disaster for the train operators who are running empty trains up and down the lines - I suppose those who have already paid for their journeys with season tickets might feel aggrieved but presumably there are compensation schemes in place.
Look North did a report on the 09:00 Sheffield to St Pancras. One passenger as far as Leicester then none at all for the rest of the journey. Their average loading is 6 people.
I live in a flat with a panoramic view of the local railway station in a Hertfordshire commuter town. Pre-Covid the car park, which has several hundred space, was packed every weekday and reasonably full with leisure traffic at the weekends as well.
Since lockdown the total number of cars parked up varies between zero and five.
Germans estimating Rt back at 0.75, so the apparent bounce was seemingly just noise. Probably quite important for our policy-makers.
Probably not. It's given them a great excuse for doing nothing a week Thursday, which is exactly what they wanted to do anyway.
SAGE needs balancing with other risk, behavioural, social and economic advisors.
I am expecting Boris to announce on 7 May:
Opening of smaller non-essential shops and of course garden centres subject to social distancing measures
A relaxation to social distancing within houses to allow family members in different residences to meet
To apply from 11 May.
Partial reopening of schools 1 June
Restaurants, gyms and possibly pubs with restrictions 22 June
Relaxation of restrictions 12 July
These are all at three week intervals and will be subject to ongoing assessment against the 5 tests
I don't think non essential shops will happen - the whole point of the lockdown at the moment is we only go out if we have a reason to. Non essential changes that entirely.
I suspect first step of easing will be, announced on 7th May, tips open if you have to go to them, from May 21st.
Schools - not this school year.
What's "essential" ?
B&Q has entirely reopened, and Burger King, KFC, Nandos and McDonalds are reopening more restaurants every day.
It's already flipped from 'non essential' to 'can we effectively conduct retail business with social distancing where people come occasionally but don't take the piss'.
It hass't entirely reopened - our local (massive) one is only serving trade.
I'm bemused by these people fervently doing up their house. Relax and stay home, to protect the NHS and save lives. Haven't they been listening?
Given that their homes are where they will spend virtually the total of their entire existence going forward until death, the urge to make them as habitable as possible before there is no such thing as B&Q anymore is at least rational.
Time for some positivity, methinks - whilst I am very bearish on the near future, humanity always finds a way through.
Business is adapting. Online is surging.
People I know are thinking of packing in their stressful city jobs to spend more time with their kids.
It isn't all doom and gloom - and once this is beaten, we'll live to thrive again.
Germans estimating Rt back at 0.75, so the apparent bounce was seemingly just noise. Probably quite important for our policy-makers.
Probably not. It's given them a great excuse for doing nothing a week Thursday, which is exactly what they wanted to do anyway.
SAGE needs balancing with other risk, behavioural, social and economic advisors.
I am expecting Boris to announce on 7 May:
Opening of smaller non-essential shops and of course garden centres subject to social distancing measures
A relaxation to social distancing within houses to allow family members in different residences to meet
To apply from 11 May.
Partial reopening of schools 1 June
Restaurants, gyms and possibly pubs with restrictions 22 June
Relaxation of restrictions 12 July
These are all at three week intervals and will be subject to ongoing assessment against the 5 tests
I don't think non essential shops will happen - the whole point of the lockdown at the moment is we only go out if we have a reason to. Non essential changes that entirely.
I suspect first step of easing will be, announced on 7th May, tips open if you have to go to them, from May 21st.
Schools - not this school year.
In person education, retail shopping, gyms, team sport, anything else that involves human interaction is over. They will never reopen. Human life as we knew it is finished.
Vaccine or treatment - no bug has ever beaten us yet. We're a resilient lot.
A little naive. How have those vaccines and treatments for SARS worked out? We have played our last (legal) games of football. Been to our last concerts, plays, nightclubs. Held our last traditional weddings and parties. The enormity of it is too much to bear.
I really worry that you are in such a stressful place.
Please try not to concentrate on the negatives as lockdown will ease over the coming months and while changes will happen in our lives we will adapt as we always do
My daughter is very upset today as a work colleague and friend of many years working in another local office took his life yesterday. These are serious times for mental health issues and keep posting and taking part on this forum
You are very important and I send my best wishes to you
Thanks but please don’t worry. I am but an anonymous poster on a message board! I could even be a bot.
Germans estimating Rt back at 0.75, so the apparent bounce was seemingly just noise. Probably quite important for our policy-makers.
Probably not. It's given them a great excuse for doing nothing a week Thursday, which is exactly what they wanted to do anyway.
SAGE needs balancing with other risk, behavioural, social and economic advisors.
I am expecting Boris to announce on 7 May:
Opening of smaller non-essential shops and of course garden centres subject to social distancing measures
A relaxation to social distancing within houses to allow family members in different residences to meet
To apply from 11 May.
Partial reopening of schools 1 June
Restaurants, gyms and possibly pubs with restrictions 22 June
Relaxation of restrictions 12 July
These are all at three week intervals and will be subject to ongoing assessment against the 5 tests
I don't think non essential shops will happen - the whole point of the lockdown at the moment is we only go out if we have a reason to. Non essential changes that entirely.
I suspect first step of easing will be, announced on 7th May, tips open if you have to go to them, from May 21st.
Schools - not this school year.
What's "essential" ?
B&Q has entirely reopened, and Burger King, KFC, Nandos and McDonalds are reopening more restaurants every day.
It's already flipped from 'non essential' to 'can we effectively conduct retail business with social distancing where people come occasionally but don't take the piss'.
It hass't entirely reopened - our local (massive) one is only serving trade.
I'm bemused by these people fervently doing up their house. Relax and stay home, to protect the NHS and save lives. Haven't they been listening?
Given that their homes are where they will spend virtually the total of their entire existence going forward until death, the urge to make them as habitable as possible before there is no such thing as B&Q anymore is at least rational.
Time for some positivity, methinks - whilst I am very bearish on the near future, humanity always finds a way through.
Business is adapting. Online is surging.
People I know are thinking of packing in their stressful city jobs to spend more time with their kids.
It isn't all doom and gloom - and once this is beaten, we'll live to thrive again.
Humanity has indeed hitherto found a way to continue but I fear our luck has run out.
So Mr Raab what do you say to a sacked BA worker today?
Well persisting with lockdown measures means the economy is going to be completely smashed to pieces for years to come so the the chances of re-employment at a decent standard are very low for a long period ahead.
We forecast that for the foreseeable future you'll be having a totally rotten life on meagre benefits due to our enormous debt, with poorer public services.
Now, back to those PPE supply problems Piers Morgan is so concerned about.
Don't be an idiot. Countries all across the entire globe have stopped air travel, the BA workers would have been laid off with or without a domestic lockdown.
In fact without a domestic lockdown causing a domestic furlough scheme its likely all airlines would have sacked even more workers already.
OK I'll put that question to YOU since I'm such an idiot.
What would YOU say to a sacked BA worker today?
retrain in another industry? when Lockdown is needlessly destroying jobs in all walks of life?
These poor people must be in a world of sh8t. No jobs in their industry. No jobs anywhere else either.
This is the case in millions of jobs worldwide
Of course it is. Including in nations without a lockdown like in Sweden.
Without an official lockdown people still take matters into their own hands and lockdown as much as they are able to do so. Without an official lockdown or furlough scheme what would have happened?
The hospitality, travel, tourism and similar sectors would all have been devastated and gone bust as their number of customers plummeted but with zero support or furlough scheme the employees would have all lost their jobs. As has happened in other nations.
Our unemployment numbers aren't changing as much because of the furlough scheme.
I was chatting to a Swedish friend today
He said that the media is very misleading - in reality there are a lot of restrictions in Sweden so not a case of “no lockdown”
Germans estimating Rt back at 0.75, so the apparent bounce was seemingly just noise. Probably quite important for our policy-makers.
Probably not. It's given them a great excuse for doing nothing a week Thursday, which is exactly what they wanted to do anyway.
SAGE needs balancing with other risk, behavioural, social and economic advisors.
I am expecting Boris to announce on 7 May:
Opening of smaller non-essential shops and of course garden centres subject to social distancing measures
A relaxation to social distancing within houses to allow family members in different residences to meet
To apply from 11 May.
Partial reopening of schools 1 June
Restaurants, gyms and possibly pubs with restrictions 22 June
Relaxation of restrictions 12 July
These are all at three week intervals and will be subject to ongoing assessment against the 5 tests
I don't think non essential shops will happen - the whole point of the lockdown at the moment is we only go out if we have a reason to. Non essential changes that entirely.
I suspect first step of easing will be, announced on 7th May, tips open if you have to go to them, from May 21st.
Schools - not this school year.
In person education, retail shopping, gyms, team sport, anything else that involves human interaction is over. They will never reopen. Human life as we knew it is finished.
Vaccine or treatment - no bug has ever beaten us yet. We're a resilient lot.
A little naive. How have those vaccines and treatments for SARS worked out? We have played our last (legal) games of football. Been to our last concerts, plays, nightclubs. Held our last traditional weddings and parties. The enormity of it is too much to bear.
I really worry that you are in such a stressful place.
Please try not to concentrate on the negatives as lockdown will ease over the coming months and while changes will happen in our lives we will adapt as we always do
My daughter is very upset today as a work colleague and friend of many years working in another local office took his life yesterday. These are serious times for mental health issues and keep posting and taking part on this forum
You are very important and I send my best wishes to you
Thanks but please don’t worry. I am but an anonymous poster on a message board! I could even be a bot.
I do not know you but I do care and can only express my hope that you can overcome your thoughts and see that life is worth living.
Germans estimating Rt back at 0.75, so the apparent bounce was seemingly just noise. Probably quite important for our policy-makers.
Probably not. It's given them a great excuse for doing nothing a week Thursday, which is exactly what they wanted to do anyway.
SAGE needs balancing with other risk, behavioural, social and economic advisors.
I am expecting Boris to announce on 7 May:
Opening of smaller non-essential shops and of course garden centres subject to social distancing measures
A relaxation to social distancing within houses to allow family members in different residences to meet
To apply from 11 May.
Partial reopening of schools 1 June
Restaurants, gyms and possibly pubs with restrictions 22 June
Relaxation of restrictions 12 July
These are all at three week intervals and will be subject to ongoing assessment against the 5 tests
I don't think non essential shops will happen - the whole point of the lockdown at the moment is we only go out if we have a reason to. Non essential changes that entirely.
I suspect first step of easing will be, announced on 7th May, tips open if you have to go to them, from May 21st.
Schools - not this school year.
In person education, retail shopping, gyms, team sport, anything else that involves human interaction is over. They will never reopen. Human life as we knew it is finished.
Vaccine or treatment - no bug has ever beaten us yet. We're a resilient lot.
A little naive. How have those vaccines and treatments for SARS worked out? We have played our last (legal) games of football. Been to our last concerts, plays, nightclubs. Held our last traditional weddings and parties. The enormity of it is too much to bear.
I really worry that you are in such a stressful place.
Please try not to concentrate on the negatives as lockdown will ease over the coming months and while changes will happen in our lives we will adapt as we always do
My daughter is very upset today as a work colleague and friend of many years working in another local office took his life yesterday. These are serious times for mental health issues and keep posting and taking part on this forum
You are very important and I send my best wishes to you
Thanks but please don’t worry. I am but an anonymous poster on a message board! I could even be a bot.
I do not know you but I do care and can only express my hope that you can overcome your thoughts and see that life is worth living.
OK, PB fountain of knowledge, I need help with a quiz question:
Who was the last (major party) losing candidate, at a U.S. Presidential election, to fail to be elected (or take office), on more than the one occasion?
The one that amazes me each time is just how many Electoral College votes Richard Nixon got.....including as VP and losing Pres. candidate in 1960.
Do you mean people who actually got the party nomination? because loads of no- hopers try to enter the primaries every four years, some of them have about 10 goes at it. They usually can't raise enough money to be deemed 'major candidates' and so can't get on the ticket in the early states.
Just heard from another of my wife's friends, this time in Munich (a perk of being a TOEFL teacher is getting friendships with former students all over the world) that after shops re-opened there recently, cases have shot back up again and they may have to go back to a lockdown.
I think human life as we know it is at an end. We will be living like this for years, maybe forever. I am questioning seriously whether I can live out my life in this enforced isolation.
No chance.
Isolation while we flatten the curve and build up NHS capacity, testing and tracking/tracing capacity and PPE capacity makes sense.
Once capacity is up there is zero reason to maintain the lockdown.
That’s not what the Government is saying. They say there has to be no chance of a second wave. That will never happen. Living in this half existence forever is simply not worth it. It’s not even living, it’s existing. There is no hope.
They're saying there has to be no chance of a second wave that will overwhelm the NHS.
Once we have flattened the curve, upgraded NHS capacity, upgraded testing capacity, upgraded testing and tracking/tracity capacity and upgraded PPE capacity then there would be no chance of that.
That small change to point 5 of the PowerPoint slide was flatly contradicted by Raab today. Listening to him today convinced me that is really no reason to continue. It’s over.
That change to point 5 matches what Raab always said.
You are a member of the Conservative Party. I’m have no interest in spinning what he said. This is going to last for years, maybe for the rest of our lives. Frankly I am not going to spend decades like this. If you think this is living that’s your problem.
Courage, mon brave.
Let's imagine a worst case scenario from a science point of view. There's no usable vaccine, infection only gives some immunity. What would we do?
Now, I'm not an expert. I teach physics for a living. But the outlines of the new worst-case life are pretty clear.
We keep taking hygiene seriously. Because in the last few decades, frankly, we got decadent about it.
We do lots (and I mean lots) of testing. We know that can be done. If it's a matter of survival, we can do more; it's just a question of resources.
We do lots of contact tracing. Even if it's not perfect and doesn't catch every infection chain, it will break a lot of them, which wasn't happening in the UK in February.
We keep the ability to throw up a Nightingale wherever and whenever we need one.
We work out what a good death is for those who die from this. What's the network of hospices like, to what extent can we safely let the dying see relatives?
And then... we take a deep breath... we thank our lucky stars to be alive in a prosperous place at a prosperous time, because here and now followed by a depression is still pretty peachy in the grand scheme of things, and we get on with rebuilding the rest of our lives.
Lockdown now is worth doing, to stop more people dying while we work out what the hell is going on. It's going to go on longer than many would want, because working out takes time. But it's not forever.
It’s over. Life is over. There’s no f’ing point anymore.
Step back from the edge, take a deep breath and count to ten.
There is a point and life will find a way. It always does.
Does it?
You are having a tough time. Please ring your GP and speak to him or her about depression. They have unlimited time for phone calls these days, and it might really help.
Humanity has indeed hitherto found a way to continue but I fear our luck has run out.
There's zero chance that we'll sit here for the rest of eternity waiting for a vaccine because sooner or later someone will try to take advantage of the situation to accrue more power. Whereas the 1918 pandemic contributed to the end of WW1, perhaps WW3 will get us out of lockdown.
So Mr Raab what do you say to a sacked BA worker today?
Well persisting with lockdown measures means the economy is going to be completely smashed to pieces for years to come so the the chances of re-employment at a decent standard are very low for a long period ahead.
We forecast that for the foreseeable future you'll be having a totally rotten life on meagre benefits due to our enormous debt, with poorer public services.
Now, back to those PPE supply problems Piers Morgan is so concerned about.
Don't be an idiot. Countries all across the entire globe have stopped air travel, the BA workers would have been laid off with or without a domestic lockdown.
In fact without a domestic lockdown causing a domestic furlough scheme its likely all airlines would have sacked even more workers already.
OK I'll put that question to YOU since I'm such an idiot.
What would YOU say to a sacked BA worker today?
retrain in another industry? when Lockdown is needlessly destroying jobs in all walks of life?
These poor people must be in a world of sh8t. No jobs in their industry. No jobs anywhere else either.
This is the case in millions of jobs worldwide
Of course it is. Including in nations without a lockdown like in Sweden.
Without an official lockdown people still take matters into their own hands and lockdown as much as they are able to do so. Without an official lockdown or furlough scheme what would have happened?
The hospitality, travel, tourism and similar sectors would all have been devastated and gone bust as their number of customers plummeted but with zero support or furlough scheme the employees would have all lost their jobs. As has happened in other nations.
Our unemployment numbers aren't changing as much because of the furlough scheme.
I was chatting to a Swedish friend today
He said that the media is very misleading - in reality there are a lot of restrictions in Sweden so not a case of “no lockdown”
Indeed. They've just spread chicken shit all over a park to prevent an ad-hoc festival.
Humanity has indeed hitherto found a way to continue but I fear our luck has run out.
There's zero chance that we'll sit here for the rest of eternity waiting for a vaccine because sooner or later someone will try to take advantage of the situation to accrue more power. Whereas the 1918 pandemic contributed to the end of WW1, perhaps WW3 will get us out of lockdown.
I hope not William and maybe not the best way to encourage Doug
Humanity has indeed hitherto found a way to continue but I fear our luck has run out.
There's zero chance that we'll sit here for the rest of eternity waiting for a vaccine because sooner or later someone will try to take advantage of the situation to accrue more power. Whereas the 1918 pandemic contributed to the end of WW1, perhaps WW3 will get us out of lockdown.
Humanity has indeed hitherto found a way to continue but I fear our luck has run out.
There's zero chance that we'll sit here for the rest of eternity waiting for a vaccine because sooner or later someone will try to take advantage of the situation to accrue more power. Whereas the 1918 pandemic contributed to the end of WW1, perhaps WW3 will get us out of lockdown.
I'm still waiting for someone to tell me how many people have or have had the covid-19 virus - not the cases reported but an estimate of the proportion of reported cases to unreported cases.
ICL estimate is 4.16%, or 2.8 million - albeit with huge errorbars (1.99m-3.98m)
If we take ONS excess mortality, 27k for England & Wales as of ~Apr13th, scale to UK population and look at estimated infections on that date, it comes out with a mortality rate of 1.7%. That does seem a lot too high.
Although given how CV-19 rips through nursing homes, killing the residents, it is far from impossible.
Humanity has indeed hitherto found a way to continue but I fear our luck has run out.
There's zero chance that we'll sit here for the rest of eternity waiting for a vaccine because sooner or later someone will try to take advantage of the situation to accrue more power. Whereas the 1918 pandemic contributed to the end of WW1, perhaps WW3 will get us out of lockdown.
Germans estimating Rt back at 0.75, so the apparent bounce was seemingly just noise. Probably quite important for our policy-makers.
Probably not. It's given them a great excuse for doing nothing a week Thursday, which is exactly what they wanted to do anyway.
SAGE needs balancing with other risk, behavioural, social and economic advisors.
I am expecting Boris to announce on 7 May:
Opening of smaller non-essential shops and of course garden centres subject to social distancing measures
A relaxation to social distancing within houses to allow family members in different residences to meet
To apply from 11 May.
Partial reopening of schools 1 June
Restaurants, gyms and possibly pubs with restrictions 22 June
Relaxation of restrictions 12 July
These are all at three week intervals and will be subject to ongoing assessment against the 5 tests
I don't think non essential shops will happen - the whole point of the lockdown at the moment is we only go out if we have a reason to. Non essential changes that entirely.
I suspect first step of easing will be, announced on 7th May, tips open if you have to go to them, from May 21st.
Schools - not this school year.
What's "essential" ?
B&Q has entirely reopened, and Burger King, KFC, Nandos and McDonalds are reopening more restaurants every day.
It's already flipped from 'non essential' to 'can we effectively conduct retail business with social distancing where people come occasionally but don't take the piss'.
It hass't entirely reopened - our local (massive) one is only serving trade.
I'm bemused by these people fervently doing up their house. Relax and stay home, to protect the NHS and save lives. Haven't they been listening?
Given that their homes are where they will spend virtually the total of their entire existence going forward until death, the urge to make them as habitable as possible before there is no such thing as B&Q anymore is at least rational.
Time for some positivity, methinks - whilst I am very bearish on the near future, humanity always finds a way through.
Business is adapting. Online is surging.
People I know are thinking of packing in their stressful city jobs to spend more time with their kids.
It isn't all doom and gloom - and once this is beaten, we'll live to thrive again.
Humanity has indeed hitherto found a way to continue but I fear our luck has run out.
I honestly believe that we have struck very lucky in a strange way. This could have been a pandemic virus with a fatality rate of say >30% or >50%.
That would have been the end of civilisation as we know it.
This virus however seems to have a fatality rate of a few percent.
The world will never be the same imo but we have the chance to recover. learn the lessons, and move forward better prepared for the next pandemic, whenever that comes.
Just heard from another of my wife's friends, this time in Munich (a perk of being a TOEFL teacher is getting friendships with former students all over the world) that after shops re-opened there recently, cases have shot back up again and they may have to go back to a lockdown.
I think human life as we know it is at an end. We will be living like this for years, maybe forever. I am questioning seriously whether I can live out my life in this enforced isolation.
No chance.
Isolation while we flatten the curve and build up NHS capacity, testing and tracking/tracing capacity and PPE capacity makes sense.
Once capacity is up there is zero reason to maintain the lockdown.
That’s not what the Government is saying. They say there has to be no chance of a second wave. That will never happen. Living in this half existence forever is simply not worth it. It’s not even living, it’s existing. There is no hope.
They're saying there has to be no chance of a second wave that will overwhelm the NHS.
Once we have flattened the curve, upgraded NHS capacity, upgraded testing capacity, upgraded testing and tracking/tracity capacity and upgraded PPE capacity then there would be no chance of that.
That small change to point 5 of the PowerPoint slide was flatly contradicted by Raab today. Listening to him today convinced me that is really no reason to continue. It’s over.
That change to point 5 matches what Raab always said.
You are a member of the Conservative Party. I’m have no interest in spinning what he said. This is going to last for years, maybe for the rest of our lives. Frankly I am not going to spend decades like this. If you think this is living that’s your problem.
Courage, mon brave.
Let's imagine a worst case scenario from a science point of view. There's no usable vaccine, infection only gives some immunity. What would we do?
Now, I'm not an expert. I teach physics for a living. But the outlines of the new worst-case life are pretty clear.
We keep taking hygiene seriously. Because in the last few decades, frankly, we got decadent about it.
We do lots (and I mean lots) of testing. We know that can be done. If it's a matter of survival, we can do more; it's just a question of resources.
We do lots of contact tracing. Even if it's not perfect and doesn't catch every infection chain, it will break a lot of them, which wasn't happening in the UK in February.
We keep the ability to throw up a Nightingale wherever and whenever we need one.
We work out what a good death is for those who die from this. What's the network of hospices like, to what extent can we safely let the dying see relatives?
And then... we take a deep breath... we thank our lucky stars to be alive in a prosperous place at a prosperous time, because here and now followed by a depression is still pretty peachy in the grand scheme of things, and we get on with rebuilding the rest of our lives.
Lockdown now is worth doing, to stop more people dying while we work out what the hell is going on. It's going to go on longer than many would want, because working out takes time. But it's not forever.
It’s over. Life is over. There’s no f’ing point anymore.
Step back from the edge, take a deep breath and count to ten.
There is a point and life will find a way. It always does.
Does it?
If you want assurance things that definitely make life worth living then look at Switzerland who are going to open up bars , cinemas etc in the next couple of weeks. I would also recommend not using this site much as well.There are intelligent people on here but a lot play a game with stats , etc - usually about death rates etc . Far better to watch something more hopeful as well for the mood.
A second wave will come to Switzerland (as everywhere else) and they will lockdown again, the cycle will repeat itself, until it becomes permanent.
Humanity has indeed hitherto found a way to continue but I fear our luck has run out.
There's zero chance that we'll sit here for the rest of eternity waiting for a vaccine because sooner or later someone will try to take advantage of the situation to accrue more power. Whereas the 1918 pandemic contributed to the end of WW1, perhaps WW3 will get us out of lockdown.
So Mr Raab what do you say to a sacked BA worker today?
Well persisting with lockdown measures means the economy is going to be completely smashed to pieces for years to come so the the chances of re-employment at a decent standard are very low for a long period ahead.
We forecast that for the foreseeable future you'll be having a totally rotten life on meagre benefits due to our enormous debt, with poorer public services.
Now, back to those PPE supply problems Piers Morgan is so concerned about.
Don't be an idiot. Countries all across the entire globe have stopped air travel, the BA workers would have been laid off with or without a domestic lockdown.
In fact without a domestic lockdown causing a domestic furlough scheme its likely all airlines would have sacked even more workers already.
OK I'll put that question to YOU since I'm such an idiot.
What would YOU say to a sacked BA worker today?
retrain in another industry? when Lockdown is needlessly destroying jobs in all walks of life?
These poor people must be in a world of sh8t. No jobs in their industry. No jobs anywhere else either.
This is the case in millions of jobs worldwide
Oh just accept it then right?
you can't get a job in your own industry, you can;t retrain because colleges are locked down, your prospects of a job in another industry are close to zero for years to come because lockdown has smashed every industry, you can;t even meet someone face to face to try to convince them you might be worth employing.
This is your future. An enforced breadline existence you cannot get out of. For years. While some academic argues whether R is at one or not.
That is what millions of moderate and low paid workers in our country face. How long do you or anybody else think we can keep the lid on that? whether Corona deaths are at twenty, fifty or even 100,000?
Who said the lockdown would last years? 🙄
There would be more economic devastation without a lockdown as you'd have had just as much economic devastation as people take their own actions to avoid risk but with zero government support.
The government borrowing for a once-in-a-century pandemic can easier pay for people's wages than the companies that would have gone bust otherwise. We'd have millions unemployed by now not ten thousand in one industry without a lockdown.
The lockdown wont last indefinitely, but the effects of it will last a very long time. 2008 lasted a very long time, and this is much much worse than 2008. The worst slump in centuries according to a BoE policymaker.
Centuries when our country has been ravaged by disease much worse than Corona yet somehow kept going. Kept growing. How can that be if your link between economic growth and disease is correct?
It clearly isn't.
Can you evidence that?
It’s been a while since I looked but I think there was little growth between the Black Death and the Industrial Revolution
Humanity has indeed hitherto found a way to continue but I fear our luck has run out.
There's zero chance that we'll sit here for the rest of eternity waiting for a vaccine because sooner or later someone will try to take advantage of the situation to accrue more power. Whereas the 1918 pandemic contributed to the end of WW1, perhaps WW3 will get us out of lockdown.
I think I've realised what has bothered me most about the government response. The absolute lack of engagement with industry until the very last moment. There has been almost no engagement with the tech industry for data modelling, app building and logistics.
The UK has one of the largest tech industries on a per capita basis and we're not leveraging it anywhere near enough, in fact the government is actively ignoring it. We needed to have the best predictive modellers from the sector on day zero, we needed to go to Google and tell them we were sequestering their best ML guys for a few months. Not use outdated models from people who make bad assumptions.
We should have gone to Apple and got them to build an app for contact tracing, Google for the Android version. All of these tech companies have been falling over themselves to be seen to help the cause all over the world. They just need to be asked.
Instead we have a top down approach which hasn't worked at all. We're behind the rest of the world on testing, contact tracing, we don't have an accurate projection of where we're going to end up. I'm 99% sure that we don't have an accurate patient outcome prediction model. When someone gets a test we should already know by their app who they have come in contact with, the likelihood of a positive result and how severe their condition is going to be of they have it.
It's absolutely galling that we have some of the best and most dedicated healthcare professionals in the world led by the most incompetent management to exist. Once this is over it's time for the government to clean house at the NHS.
Just heard from another of my wife's friends, this time in Munich (a perk of being a TOEFL teacher is getting friendships with former students all over the world) that after shops re-opened there recently, cases have shot back up again and they may have to go back to a lockdown.
I think human life as we know it is at an end. We will be living like this for years, maybe forever. I am questioning seriously whether I can live out my life in this enforced isolation.
No chance.
Isolation while we flatten the curve and build up NHS capacity, testing and tracking/tracing capacity and PPE capacity makes sense.
Once capacity is up there is zero reason to maintain the lockdown.
That’s not what the Government is saying. They say there has to be no chance of a second wave. That will never happen. Living in this half existence forever is simply not worth it. It’s not even living, it’s existing. There is no hope.
They're saying there has to be no chance of a second wave that will overwhelm the NHS.
Once we have flattened the curve, upgraded NHS capacity, upgraded testing capacity, upgraded testing and tracking/tracity capacity and upgraded PPE capacity then there would be no chance of that.
That small change to point 5 of the PowerPoint slide was flatly contradicted by Raab today. Listening to him today convinced me that is really no reason to continue. It’s over.
That change to point 5 matches what Raab always said.
You are a member of the Conservative Party. I’m have no interest in spinning what he said. This is going to last for years, maybe for the rest of our lives. Frankly I am not going to spend decades like this. If you think this is living that’s your problem.
Courage, mon brave.
Let's imagine a worst case scenario from a science point of view. There's no usable vaccine, infection only gives some immunity. What would we do?
Now, I'm not an expert. I teach physics for a living. But the outlines of the new worst-case life are pretty clear.
We keep taking hygiene seriously. Because in the last few decades, frankly, we got decadent about it.
We do lots (and I mean lots) of testing. We know that can be done. If it's a matter of survival, we can do more; it's just a question of resources.
We do lots of contact tracing. Even if it's not perfect and doesn't catch every infection chain, it will break a lot of them, which wasn't happening in the UK in February.
We keep the ability to throw up a Nightingale wherever and whenever we need one.
We work out what a good death is for those who die from this. What's the network of hospices like, to what extent can we safely let the dying see relatives?
And then... we take a deep breath... we thank our lucky stars to be alive in a prosperous place at a prosperous time, because here and now followed by a depression is still pretty peachy in the grand scheme of things, and we get on with rebuilding the rest of our lives.
Lockdown now is worth doing, to stop more people dying while we work out what the hell is going on. It's going to go on longer than many would want, because working out takes time. But it's not forever.
It’s over. Life is over. There’s no f’ing point anymore.
Step back from the edge, take a deep breath and count to ten.
There is a point and life will find a way. It always does.
Does it?
If you want assurance things that definitely make life worth living then look at Switzerland who are going to open up bars , cinemas etc in the next couple of weeks. I would also recommend not using this site much as well.There are intelligent people on here but a lot play a game with stats , etc - usually about death rates etc . Far better to watch something more hopeful as well for the mood.
A second wave will come to Switzerland (as everywhere else) and they will lockdown again, the cycle will repeat itself, until it becomes permanent.
It will be resolved, admittedly with some hiccups but stay strong, you will get through it and adapt as mankind always does
Germans estimating Rt back at 0.75, so the apparent bounce was seemingly just noise. Probably quite important for our policy-makers.
Probably not. It's given them a great excuse for doing nothing a week Thursday, which is exactly what they wanted to do anyway.
SAGE needs balancing with other risk, behavioural, social and economic advisors.
I am expecting Boris to announce on 7 May:
Opening of smaller non-essential shops and of course garden centres subject to social distancing measures
A relaxation to social distancing within houses to allow family members in different residences to meet
To apply from 11 May.
Partial reopening of schools 1 June
Restaurants, gyms and possibly pubs with restrictions 22 June
Relaxation of restrictions 12 July
These are all at three week intervals and will be subject to ongoing assessment against the 5 tests
I don't think non essential shops will happen - the whole point of the lockdown at the moment is we only go out if we have a reason to. Non essential changes that entirely.
I suspect first step of easing will be, announced on 7th May, tips open if you have to go to them, from May 21st.
Schools - not this school year.
What's "essential" ?
B&Q has entirely reopened, and Burger King, KFC, Nandos and McDonalds are reopening more restaurants every day.
It's already flipped from 'non essential' to 'can we effectively conduct retail business with social distancing where people come occasionally but don't take the piss'.
The whole "essential retail" thing has been misunderstood from the outset. If the intention was that we would only be able to buy that which was necessary to sustain life then we'd have had some of the more zealous police forces being allowed to do what they always wanted, i.e. to rifle through people's shopping and make them throw away their Easter eggs and booze. Indeed, the supermarkets would've been given lists of permissible and banned produce and asked to remove the latter from their shelves.
In point of fact, retail was stripped back to a product of what was necessary *and* what the Government thought it could get away with leaving open. Within that list, of course, the permitted retailers have been allowed to continue to sell whatever they please. There's never been anything to stop you from buying garden plants, birthday cards, Champagne, carpet slippers or anything else that you please from the local Tesco extra.
Thus, of course the Government is going to allow anyone to trade that they think they can get away with, within the overall objective of stopping the virus from getting out of control again. In theory, there's nothing wrong with allowing people to go and browse for jewellery, Summer frocks, furniture or anything else. In practice, of course, these shops may re-open only to find that they have no customers.
So who will be the last PBer to venture out of their home?
I'm here for the long haul.
I have ventured out a fair few times. I avoid supermarkets and stick to small shops if there are no queues .i get my papers and fruit and veg delivered. We have a local butcher who i go to and wait till.the queue has subsided Occasional tesco shop on line and an hours walk with the dogs..
So Mr Raab what do you say to a sacked BA worker today?
Well persisting with lockdown measures means the economy is going to be completely smashed to pieces for years to come so the the chances of re-employment at a decent standard are very low for a long period ahead.
We forecast that for the foreseeable future you'll be having a totally rotten life on meagre benefits due to our enormous debt, with poorer public services.
Now, back to those PPE supply problems Piers Morgan is so concerned about.
Don't be an idiot. Countries all across the entire globe have stopped air travel, the BA workers would have been laid off with or without a domestic lockdown.
In fact without a domestic lockdown causing a domestic furlough scheme its likely all airlines would have sacked even more workers already.
OK I'll put that question to YOU since I'm such an idiot.
What would YOU say to a sacked BA worker today?
retrain in another industry? when Lockdown is needlessly destroying jobs in all walks of life?
These poor people must be in a world of sh8t. No jobs in their industry. No jobs anywhere else either.
This is the case in millions of jobs worldwide
Oh just accept it then right?
you can't get a job in your own industry, you can;t retrain because colleges are locked down, your prospects of a job in another industry are close to zero for years to come because lockdown has smashed every industry, you can;t even meet someone face to face to try to convince them you might be worth employing.
This is your future. An enforced breadline existence you cannot get out of. For years. While some academic argues whether R is at one or not.
That is what millions of moderate and low paid workers in our country face. How long do you or anybody else think we can keep the lid on that? whether Corona deaths are at twenty, fifty or even 100,000?
Who said the lockdown would last years? 🙄
There would be more economic devastation without a lockdown as you'd have had just as much economic devastation as people take their own actions to avoid risk but with zero government support.
The government borrowing for a once-in-a-century pandemic can easier pay for people's wages than the companies that would have gone bust otherwise. We'd have millions unemployed by now not ten thousand in one industry without a lockdown.
The lockdown wont last indefinitely, but the effects of it will last a very long time. 2008 lasted a very long time, and this is much much worse than 2008. The worst slump in centuries according to a BoE policymaker.
Centuries when our country has been ravaged by disease much worse than Corona yet somehow kept going. Kept growing. How can that be if your link between economic growth and disease is correct?
It clearly isn't.
Can you evidence that?
It’s been a while since I looked but I think there was little growth between the Black Death and the Industrial Revolution
Remarkable that European civilisation did survive* the circa 50% fatality rate of the Black Death though.
I think I've realised what has bothered me most about the government response. The absolute lack of engagement with industry until the very last moment. There has been almost no engagement with the tech industry for data modelling, app building and logistics.
The UK has one of the largest tech industries on a per capita basis and we're not leveraging it anywhere near enough, in fact the government is actively ignoring it. We needed to have the best predictive modellers from the sector on day zero, we needed to go to Google and tell them we were sequestering their best ML guys for a few months. Not use outdated models from people who make bad assumptions.
We should have gone to Apple and got them to build an app for contact tracing, Google for the Android version. All of these tech companies have been falling over themselves to be seen to help the cause all over the world. They just need to be asked.
Instead we have a top down approach which hasn't worked at all. We're behind the rest of the world on testing, contact tracing, we don't have an accurate projection of where we're going to end up. I'm 99% sure that we don't have an accurate patient outcome prediction model. When someone gets a test we should already know by their app who they have come in contact with, the likelihood of a positive result and how severe their condition is going to be of they have it.
It's absolutely galling that we have some of the best and most dedicated healthcare professionals in the world led by the most incompetent management to exist. Once this is over it's time for the government to clean house at the NHS.
The bit at the end doesn’t really follow; you’ve just described a government several steps behind in a number of categories (and I agree with you). Is that government then the one to be ‘cleaning house’ at the NHS ? Ought it not to be sorting its own act out first ?
(edit) I do think you’re onto something about the lack of engagement, but I think that goes beyond just industry. There appears to be a reluctance to engage on anything other than a giving instructions basis with anyone outside the government circle.
It will be resolved, admittedly with some hiccups but stay strong, you will get through it and adapt as mankind always does
Quite. A very restricted regime like this won't last forever, because we can't tolerate it and we can't afford it either.
Ultimately, the disease will either be suppressed by vaccination or an effective treatment that lowers its lethality, or it won't and it will end up ripping through the population and killing an awful lot more people. We will then move on.
So who will be the last PBer to venture out of their home?
I'm here for the long haul.
I went to Edinburgh today for the first time in 4 weeks. I needed to collect several sets of papers and return some. It was genuinely weird sitting in the Advocates Library. It is over 2 main floors and for most of the day I had my floor to myself. I got more work done today than I did last week. WFH has destroyed my productivity.
Today was a necessary journey but I will not be able to do it again for at least a couple of weeks unless the courts get running properly. It’s back to being at home tomorrow.
I think I've realised what has bothered me most about the government response. The absolute lack of engagement with industry until the very last moment. There has been almost no engagement with the tech industry for data modelling, app building and logistics.
The UK has one of the largest tech industries on a per capita basis and we're not leveraging it anywhere near enough, in fact the government is actively ignoring it. We needed to have the best predictive modellers from the sector on day zero, we needed to go to Google and tell them we were sequestering their best ML guys for a few months. Not use outdated models from people who make bad assumptions.
We should have gone to Apple and got them to build an app for contact tracing, Google for the Android version. All of these tech companies have been falling over themselves to be seen to help the cause all over the world. They just need to be asked.
Instead we have a top down approach which hasn't worked at all. We're behind the rest of the world on testing, contact tracing, we don't have an accurate projection of where we're going to end up. I'm 99% sure that we don't have an accurate patient outcome prediction model. When someone gets a test we should already know by their app who they have come in contact with, the likelihood of a positive result and how severe their condition is going to be of they have it.
It's absolutely galling that we have some of the best and most dedicated healthcare professionals in the world led by the most incompetent management to exist. Once this is over it's time for the government to clean house at the NHS.
I think one of our own, @FrancisUrquhart, has been involved hasn't he?
I've been impressed with the proactive nature of the Treasury. As a biz owner i've filled in two surveys at Govt behest. Both have led within days to changes to the offering. 4 days ago I input that loans were too difficult to get. Before the furlough scheme was announced, I input that employment support was necessary.
I think I've realised what has bothered me most about the government response. The absolute lack of engagement with industry until the very last moment. There has been almost no engagement with the tech industry for data modelling, app building and logistics.
The UK has one of the largest tech industries on a per capita basis and we're not leveraging it anywhere near enough, in fact the government is actively ignoring it. We needed to have the best predictive modellers from the sector on day zero, we needed to go to Google and tell them we were sequestering their best ML guys for a few months. Not use outdated models from people who make bad assumptions.
We should have gone to Apple and got them to build an app for contact tracing, Google for the Android version. All of these tech companies have been falling over themselves to be seen to help the cause all over the world. They just need to be asked.
Instead we have a top down approach which hasn't worked at all. We're behind the rest of the world on testing, contact tracing, we don't have an accurate projection of where we're going to end up. I'm 99% sure that we don't have an accurate patient outcome prediction model. When someone gets a test we should already know by their app who they have come in contact with, the likelihood of a positive result and how severe their condition is going to be of they have it.
It's absolutely galling that we have some of the best and most dedicated healthcare professionals in the world led by the most incompetent management to exist. Once this is over it's time for the government to clean house at the NHS.
One of the curiosities is that, if you believe the hype, this is exactly the scenario that the Cummings model of government is all about. Exactly one purpose, with everything else subordinate. Lots of leeway (if we're honest) to cut corners on democratic niceties. Massive potential to leverage Big Tech. And yet- it's not happened. If the mumblings about the tracing app are to be believed, it's not really happening either.
I know Dom C was sick with the sickness. But there are plenty of diddy Doms aren't there? And it's been fluffed, hasn't it?
I think I've realised what has bothered me most about the government response. The absolute lack of engagement with industry until the very last moment. There has been almost no engagement with the tech industry for data modelling, app building and logistics.
The UK has one of the largest tech industries on a per capita basis and we're not leveraging it anywhere near enough, in fact the government is actively ignoring it. We needed to have the best predictive modellers from the sector on day zero, we needed to go to Google and tell them we were sequestering their best ML guys for a few months. Not use outdated models from people who make bad assumptions.
We should have gone to Apple and got them to build an app for contact tracing, Google for the Android version. All of these tech companies have been falling over themselves to be seen to help the cause all over the world. They just need to be asked.
Instead we have a top down approach which hasn't worked at all. We're behind the rest of the world on testing, contact tracing, we don't have an accurate projection of where we're going to end up. I'm 99% sure that we don't have an accurate patient outcome prediction model. When someone gets a test we should already know by their app who they have come in contact with, the likelihood of a positive result and how severe their condition is going to be of they have it.
It's absolutely galling that we have some of the best and most dedicated healthcare professionals in the world led by the most incompetent management to exist. Once this is over it's time for the government to clean house at the NHS.
I think one of our own, @FrancisUrquhart, has been involved hasn't he?
I've been impressed with the proactive nature of the Treasury. As a biz owner i've filled in two surveys at Govt behest. Both have led within days to changes to the offering. 4 days ago I input that loans were too difficult to get. Before the furlough scheme was announced, I input that employment support was necessary.
I think I've realised what has bothered me most about the government response. The absolute lack of engagement with industry until the very last moment. There has been almost no engagement with the tech industry for data modelling, app building and logistics.
The UK has one of the largest tech industries on a per capita basis and we're not leveraging it anywhere near enough, in fact the government is actively ignoring it. We needed to have the best predictive modellers from the sector on day zero, we needed to go to Google and tell them we were sequestering their best ML guys for a few months. Not use outdated models from people who make bad assumptions.
We should have gone to Apple and got them to build an app for contact tracing, Google for the Android version. All of these tech companies have been falling over themselves to be seen to help the cause all over the world. They just need to be asked.
Instead we have a top down approach which hasn't worked at all. We're behind the rest of the world on testing, contact tracing, we don't have an accurate projection of where we're going to end up. I'm 99% sure that we don't have an accurate patient outcome prediction model. When someone gets a test we should already know by their app who they have come in contact with, the likelihood of a positive result and how severe their condition is going to be of they have it.
It's absolutely galling that we have some of the best and most dedicated healthcare professionals in the world led by the most incompetent management to exist. Once this is over it's time for the government to clean house at the NHS.
The bit at the end doesn’t really follow; you’ve just described a government several steps behind in a number of categories (and I agree with you). Is that government then the one to be ‘cleaning house’ at the NHS ? Ought it not to be sorting its own act out first ?
The top down approach is classic NHS thinking, blocking out the private sector is classic NHS thinking. These managers run the NHS like a communist fiefdom, it needs to be fixed. The government is also at huge fault here and I hope Hancock gets the boot as well as some of the advisory committee who have provided the poor advice, but that's secondary to the managers who will scream privatisation the minute the government brings in the right people from the private sector.
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Who was the last (major party) losing candidate, at a U.S. Presidential election, to fail to be elected (or take office), on more than the one occasion?
I've been tasked with looking at this for a few clients - my first guesstimate is current office configurations will allow 50-60% of staff to return with adequate distancing. The big problem areas are meeting rooms and one of my clients is of the view the price of office space will collapse meaning they can rent more space and accommodate more of their staff even with diatancing.
As far as the working part of working at home is concerned, I've encouraged clients to allow virtual social gatherings such as the Digital Cuppa or the Virtual Watercooler. This is a recognition a part of work isn't work at all but social interaction or socialisation whether it's talking football or the latest thing on Netflix or whatever. There are one or two managers who think people should work more because they aren't travelling but that's now how working at home operates or in my view should operate - it's your home not your prison.
I suspect first step of easing will be, announced on 7th May, tips open if you have to go to them, from May 21st.
Schools - not this school year.
Programmes like Horizon are some of the best programmes made anywhere on the planet. What they do well, they do brilliantly. Just broaden your bloody political perspective from being such liberal patricians, BBC.
People simply won't endure this forever so it can't happen forever so it won't happen forever.
Let's imagine a worst case scenario from a science point of view. There's no usable vaccine, infection only gives some immunity. What would we do?
Now, I'm not an expert. I teach physics for a living. But the outlines of the new worst-case life are pretty clear.
We keep taking hygiene seriously. Because in the last few decades, frankly, we got decadent about it.
We do lots (and I mean lots) of testing. We know that can be done. If it's a matter of survival, we can do more; it's just a question of resources.
We do lots of contact tracing. Even if it's not perfect and doesn't catch every infection chain, it will break a lot of them, which wasn't happening in the UK in February.
We keep the ability to throw up a Nightingale wherever and whenever we need one.
We work out what a good death is for those who die from this. What's the network of hospices like, to what extent can we safely let the dying see relatives?
And then... we take a deep breath... we thank our lucky stars to be alive in a prosperous place at a prosperous time, because here and now followed by a depression is still pretty peachy in the grand scheme of things, and we get on with rebuilding the rest of our lives.
Lockdown now is worth doing, to stop more people dying while we work out what the hell is going on. It's going to go on longer than many would want, because working out takes time. But it's not forever.
EDIT: No he was never candidate sorry.
There are 165,000 cases (existing and previous) but obviously that excludes those who haven't reported because the symptoms are mild let alone the asymptomatic. If, for example, there are 10 unreported cases for every reported we are looking at 1.65 million people who have or have had covid-19 but that is barely 2.5% of the population so a long way from any kind of "herd immunity".
From another direction, what is the true mortality rate? 29,000 deaths from 165,000 cases loos pretty high but 29,000 from 1.65 million doesn't. I've seen estimates of mortality rates from 0.2% to 1%. If the former the number who have or have had the virus could be 14.5 million which seems implausible. If the latter 2.9 million which may be more likely or it may not.
As we test more the truth will out (probably).
https://twitter.com/LouisMKD/status/1255547003087486983
There is a point and life will find a way. It always does.
If we take ONS excess mortality, 27k for England & Wales as of ~Apr13th, scale to UK population and look at estimated infections on that date, it comes out with a mortality rate of 1.7%. That does seem a lot too high.
B&Q has entirely reopened, and Burger King, KFC, Nandos and McDonalds are reopening more restaurants every day.
It's already flipped from 'non essential' to 'can we effectively conduct retail business with social distancing where people come occasionally but don't take the piss'.
Consequently, half the content of the intranet presently consists of photos of cute pets and discussions about the relative merits of different biscuits; the other half is all to do either with health and safety at work, or concepts in industrial chemistry that are probably only full comprehensible to about eight people on Earth.
https://youtu.be/Aj2vB_VITXQ
That much is clear. Arguments against it (and sustaining it until things become "clear" - code for a vaccine) are just driven by irrational fear.
I'm bemused by these people fervently doing up their house. Relax and stay home, to protect the NHS and save lives. Haven't they been listening?
Please try not to concentrate on the negatives as lockdown will ease over the coming months and while changes will happen in our lives we will adapt as we always do
My daughter is very upset today as a work colleague and friend of many years working in another local office took his life yesterday. These are serious times for mental health issues and keep posting and taking part on this forum
You are very important and I send my best wishes to you
Since lockdown the total number of cars parked up varies between zero and five.
Business is adapting. Online is surging.
People I know are thinking of packing in their stressful city jobs to spend more time with their kids.
It isn't all doom and gloom - and once this is beaten, we'll live to thrive again.
He said that the media is very misleading - in reality there are a lot of restrictions in Sweden so not a case of “no lockdown”
You are not anonymous
https://youtu.be/eMh2qwS7bAI
I got 9/17 - but I think the questions are biased towards the first half of the decade so I was disadvantaged by that.
They usually can't raise enough money to be deemed 'major candidates' and so can't get on the ticket in the early states.
That would have been the end of civilisation as we know it.
This virus however seems to have a fatality rate of a few percent.
The world will never be the same imo but we have the chance to recover. learn the lessons, and move forward better prepared for the next pandemic, whenever that comes.
It’s been a while since I looked but I think there was little growth between the Black Death and the Industrial Revolution
I'm here for the long haul.
The UK has one of the largest tech industries on a per capita basis and we're not leveraging it anywhere near enough, in fact the government is actively ignoring it. We needed to have the best predictive modellers from the sector on day zero, we needed to go to Google and tell them we were sequestering their best ML guys for a few months. Not use outdated models from people who make bad assumptions.
We should have gone to Apple and got them to build an app for contact tracing, Google for the Android version. All of these tech companies have been falling over themselves to be seen to help the cause all over the world. They just need to be asked.
Instead we have a top down approach which hasn't worked at all. We're behind the rest of the world on testing, contact tracing, we don't have an accurate projection of where we're going to end up. I'm 99% sure that we don't have an accurate patient outcome prediction model. When someone gets a test we should already know by their app who they have come in contact with, the likelihood of a positive result and how severe their condition is going to be of they have it.
It's absolutely galling that we have some of the best and most dedicated healthcare professionals in the world led by the most incompetent management to exist. Once this is over it's time for the government to clean house at the NHS.
In point of fact, retail was stripped back to a product of what was necessary *and* what the Government thought it could get away with leaving open. Within that list, of course, the permitted retailers have been allowed to continue to sell whatever they please. There's never been anything to stop you from buying garden plants, birthday cards, Champagne, carpet slippers or anything else that you please from the local Tesco extra.
Thus, of course the Government is going to allow anyone to trade that they think they can get away with, within the overall objective of stopping the virus from getting out of control again. In theory, there's nothing wrong with allowing people to go and browse for jewellery, Summer frocks, furniture or anything else. In practice, of course, these shops may re-open only to find that they have no customers.
Occasional tesco shop on line and an hours walk with the dogs..
(*Albeit with significant changes)
Is that government then the one to be ‘cleaning house’ at the NHS ? Ought it not to be sorting its own act out first ?
(edit) I do think you’re onto something about the lack of engagement, but I think that goes beyond just industry. There appears to be a reluctance to engage on anything other than a giving instructions basis with anyone outside the government circle.
Ultimately, the disease will either be suppressed by vaccination or an effective treatment that lowers its lethality, or it won't and it will end up ripping through the population and killing an awful lot more people. We will then move on.
Today was a necessary journey but I will not be able to do it again for at least a couple of weeks unless the courts get running properly. It’s back to being at home tomorrow.
I've been impressed with the proactive nature of the Treasury. As a biz owner i've filled in two surveys at Govt behest. Both have led within days to changes to the offering. 4 days ago I input that loans were too difficult to get. Before the furlough scheme was announced, I input that employment support was necessary.
I don't think thats a coincidence.
I know Dom C was sick with the sickness. But there are plenty of diddy Doms aren't there? And it's been fluffed, hasn't it?