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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The first of Lord Ashcroft’s weekly phone polls has CON 2% ahead
Looking at the methodology this seems to be following ICM or how Populus used to do it when they were pollster for the Times. The sample is past vote weighted and there is a spiral of silence adjustment. It looks sound.
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Comments
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Bad poll for Kippers - if Cam can win why stymie a referendum by voting for a spoiler party.0
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You OKSeanT said:Oh come on. Is that it?
Surely this is worth a quick HAYAHAHHAHAHAKKKGAGAHSGAGAHAHAHAHS
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
HAHAGAHAHSGHJIUFCTIOTBBHSGAGAHSGAGA
HA
HA
HA
HA
HAGAGAEHEHEHEHLOLOOLOLOLOLOLOL
LOLLLOLOLOLOLOL
FPPFFOTSPLLLLLLLUTTTER
HAHAHAHAHA
SPLUTTER
HAHAHAHAHAHEHEHEHEHOOHOOHOOHOOHOOHOOHOO HOHOHOHOHOHO
HEHEHE HAHA
HA
Ha
Ha
Heh
Lol
Heh
CHORTLE.
? 0 -
Pollgasm.SeanT said:Oh come on. Is that it?
Surely this is worth a quick HAYAHAHHAHAHAKKKGAGAHSGAGAHAHAHAHS
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
HAHAGAHAHSGHJIUFCTIOTBBHSGAGAHSGAGA
HA
HA
HA
HA
HAGAGAEHEHEHEHLOLOOLOLOLOLOLOL
LOLLLOLOLOLOLOL
FPPFFOTSPLLLLLLLUTTTER
HAHAHAHAHA
SPLUTTER
HAHAHAHAHAHEHEHEHEHOOHOOHOOHOOHOOHOOHOO HOHOHOHOHOHO
HEHEHE HAHA
HA
Ha
Ha
Heh
Lol
Heh
CHORTLE.
(and on the last thread too).0 -
I thought we were talking about this all afternoon - at least SeanT's happy.0
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Labour's position is eroding rapidly. Third in the EU elections followed by third in Newark should put an end to EdM's ill-begotten stewardship of the movement.0
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Tories ahead on the same day the NDA are set to sweep into government in the motherland? Fantastical!0
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Don't panic - I think it's Taiwanese for 'good evening' or something..!Pulpstar said:
You OKSeanT said:Oh come on. Is that it?
Surely this is worth a quick HAYAHAHHAHAHAKKKGAGAHSGAGAHAHAHAHS
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
HAHAGAHAHSGHJIUFCTIOTBBHSGAGAHSGAGA
HA
HA
HA
HA
HAGAGAEHEHEHEHLOLOOLOLOLOLOLOL
LOLLLOLOLOLOLOL
FPPFFOTSPLLLLLLLUTTTER
HAHAHAHAHA
SPLUTTER
HAHAHAHAHAHEHEHEHEHOOHOOHOOHOOHOOHOOHOO HOHOHOHOHOHO
HEHEHE HAHA
HA
Ha
Ha
Heh
Lol
Heh
CHORTLE. ?
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Sacrificing Ed now would be to sacrifice any hope of winning the next election.MonikerDiCanio said:Labour's position is eroding rapidly. Third in the EU elections followed by third in Newark should put an end to EdM's ill-begotten stewardship of the movement.
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FPT:
We can see how "crossover" occurred from Opposition back to Government here;
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-1979-1983
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-1983-1987
Unfortunately for the 83-87 Parliament there's no graph, but in both Parliaments is appears as though the shift was quite sudden and dramatic - When people shifted back to Maggie they did so suddenly and decisively.
Personally I would expect something much more gradual and subtle in 2014, with Labour and Tories basically trading blows for a few months, but who knows?0 -
Thailand sounds like fun Sean. I would add more but your first post was a bit terrifying.0
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I've said for at least two years that the Tories will win the PV, probably handsomely...SeanT said:
I've been out on the razzle, here in Bangkok. All in all a good night.JBriskin said:I thought we were talking about this all afternoon - at least SeanT's happy.
This is a SERIOUSLY worrying poll for Labour. A year from the election, the economy improving fast, and they are two points BEHIND??
And Ed's ratings are abysmal.
Any lefty who pretends to be unconcerned today is a liar.0 -
The biggest weighting adjustment in the poll was to weight up C2 voters from 140 to 218 and to weight down B voters from 277 to 192.
Why would that be?
Amusingly, contrary to most people's prejudices, the responses of people working had to be weighted down in this sample, from 491 to 440, while the responses of those not working had to be weighted up, from 385 to 441. Similarly, those in council houses had to have their responses weighted up, while there were too many mortgage-paying people with time to answer the phone.0 -
Sneer and jeer all you like. I'll enjoy May 8th 2015 just as much as I enjoyed May 7th 2010...SeanT said:After all the sneering and jeering, let it be noted that Rod Crosby is owed a big apology from his detractors. I know that I will look at his predictions with renewed interest.
(^_-)
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Going by the caps on his post, I think SeanT might have had a bit too much of Pfizer's most famous product...0
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Our host does Electoral Calculus a bit of an injustice. Their model builds in an allowance for Lib Dem resilience:
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/strongmodel.html
It's worth noting that uniform national swing simply doesn't work when drops in support are as steep as those that the Lib Dems are apparently suffering. I took a detailed look at this here:
http://newstonoone.blogspot.co.uk/2014/04/the-hunt-for-2010-lib-dems-part-1.html
The consequence is that the Lib Dems will struggle to get the seats that uniform national swing implies on a given poll rating. They will need to get more votes to hold on in more seats (thus driving up the poll rating).0 -
TGOHF said:
Bad poll for Kippers - if Cam can win why stymie a referendum by voting for a spoiler party.
Because even if we have a referendum, and we vote to leave, while Cameron is PM...
"EU rules allowing people to move freely between countries are “important” and will remain in place, despite controversy over the immigration they allow"
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/immigration/10823753/Britain-will-not-stop-EU-migrants-coming-here-to-work-says-Cameron.html0 -
Ignore Rod Crosby at your peril. We all thought he had it wrong in 2010 but in fact he had it spot on. I expect he will be right again in 2015 and will now start placing my bets accordingly.0
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Is Cameron still supporting adding 70 million Turks to that mix?isam said:TGOHF said:Bad poll for Kippers - if Cam can win why stymie a referendum by voting for a spoiler party.
Because even if we have a referendum, and we vote to leave, while Cameron is PM...
"EU rules allowing people to move freely between countries are “important” and will remain in place, despite controversy over the immigration they allow"
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/immigration/10823753/Britain-will-not-stop-EU-migrants-coming-here-to-work-says-Cameron.html0 -
Waits for Ave It to post.
Labour LOL or something similar. Someone might might cross over this poll...0 -
Banking on everyone being as cynical and downbeat as hardcore Kippers ? Seems risky....isam said:TGOHF said:Bad poll for Kippers - if Cam can win why stymie a referendum by voting for a spoiler party.
Because even if we have a referendum, and we vote to leave, while Cameron is PM...
"EU rules allowing people to move freely between countries are “important” and will remain in place, despite controversy over the immigration they allow"
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/immigration/10823753/Britain-will-not-stop-EU-migrants-coming-here-to-work-says-Cameron.html0 -
Actually, your last sentence is a non-sequitur. If you are right on the first bit, Labour should be trying to hang on to that 35% (core vote plus ex-LibDems).SeanT said:It's now possible to see a clear route to a Tory overall majority.
Let's say 5 of the Kipper 15 go back to the Tories in 2015. Let's say Labour drop another 3 because, frankly, Ed is crap, and so is Ed. And the economy is speeding up.
Tories 39, Labour 29
Decent overall majority for Cameron?
The bookies may be underestimating the chances of this.
Either way Ed's "35" strategy looks seriously misguided, right now.0 -
I had my run-in's with Rod 2005 to 2010, but had my comeuppance on election night!Eastwinger said:Ignore Rod Crosby at your peril. We all thought he had it wrong in 2010 but in fact he had it spot on. I expect he will be right again in 2015 and will now start placing my bets accordingly.
Have taken his predictions much more seriously ever since.
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TSE = Rafa wouldn't be the worst pick but putting £ before team, I've got a chunk on Moyes at 40-1 to worry about.
I fear if ICM weighs in with a Level pegging poll or even Tory lead then PB will be bereft of compouter and NPxMP for a few days.0 -
Serious question. Could you outline your reasoning behind thinking they could win it handsomely? Where will all the extra Tory votes come from, how far do you think Labour share can really drop, etc?RodCrosby said:
I've said for at least two years that the Tories will win the PV, probably handsomely...SeanT said:
I've been out on the razzle, here in Bangkok. All in all a good night.JBriskin said:I thought we were talking about this all afternoon - at least SeanT's happy.
This is a SERIOUSLY worrying poll for Labour. A year from the election, the economy improving fast, and they are two points BEHIND??
And Ed's ratings are abysmal.
Any lefty who pretends to be unconcerned today is a liar.
Conventional wisdom states that Labour % at the last GE was the absolute utter rock bottom, and that have to do better this time around, plus pi$$ed off ex-Lib Dem voters.
On the flip side, Cameron couldn't gain a very high % at the last GE, despite his opponent being widely despised. This time around, he himself has various baggage and for the older more right wing voter, UKIP has become a party where they appear happy to cast their vote.
My personal opinion is that UKIP level will drop back some what, but I can't see how the Tories can at very very best win by a small margin and resulting in a hung parliament.0 -
Labour's PPB went well then!
The trend is your friend.0 -
I don't think it works like that Sean - I don't think you actually PB anyway - maybe just give us a couple of Ed is crap paragraphs and give us time to catch up.0
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That's not fair on Nick Palmer, who turned up throughout record-breaking poll deficits for Labour in 2008 to fly the red flag.Scrapheap_as_was said:TSE = Rafa wouldn't be the worst pick but putting £ before team, I've got a chunk on Moyes at 40-1 to worry about.
I fear if ICM weighs in with a Level pegging poll or even Tory lead then PB will be bereft of compouter and NPxMP for a few days.0 -
This is, of course, one poll. Insofar as it shows a Tory lead of 2%, it is line with recent results showing a Labour lead of 1%. Given that Lord Ashcroft uses his own methods, the divergence is hardly surprising. The fact that the Tories are ahead is not a validation of latter day Joachims of Fiore, such as Dr Fisher at Oxford, who believe that they have found the key to predicting the future by determined exegesis of the past. Correlation does not imply causation, and if history shows us anything, it is that it is usually the most "scientific" forms of predicting the future, such as Marxist-Leninism, which have been the most inaccurate.
That said, it is an indictment of the British public that they appear to be actively considering returning the Conservatives as the largest party (whether by votes or by seats) at the next general election to the House of Commons. The record of this government has been woeful.0 -
Dammit - if Ed M is replaced by Yvette LotO then I'll be trying to track down that bet from years ago... memory plays tricks on how much I've got on her but I think it's winnings of hundreds of £ if it happens...
Probably Ladbrokes but those bets seem to disappear on their historic activity after a couple of years... now that really would be annoying if I can't find a winning bet.0 -
Guido Fawkes @GuidoFawkes 2h
Clearly just another mainstream media attempt to smear UKIP. Cough. http://guyfawk.es/1qw13HL0 -
arfRichard_Nabavi said:
Actually, your last sentence is a non-sequitur. If you are right on the first bit, Labour should be trying to hang on to that 35% (core vote plus ex-LibDems).SeanT said:It's now possible to see a clear route to a Tory overall majority.
Let's say 5 of the Kipper 15 go back to the Tories in 2015. Let's say Labour drop another 3 because, frankly, Ed is crap, and so is Ed. And the economy is speeding up.
Tories 39, Labour 29
Decent overall majority for Cameron?
The bookies may be underestimating the chances of this.
Either way Ed's "35" strategy looks seriously misguided, right now.
dream on Richard, Cameron is the PM who can't win a majority. HP I'm afraid, not enough bankers or estate agents in North Warwickshire.0 -
It could have been so much better, we could have had 5 more years of Gordon instead....Life_ina_market_town said:That said, it is an indictment of the British public that they appear to be actively considering returning the Conservatives as the largest party (whether by votes or by seats) at the next general election to the House of Commons. The record of this government has been woeful.
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I was hoping that eventually UKIP would replace the Tories; it would be funny if they replaced Labour.
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How will you be feeling on September 19th?RodCrosby said:
Sneer and jeer all you like. I'll enjoy May 8th 2015 just as much as I enjoyed May 7th 2010...SeanT said:After all the sneering and jeering, let it be noted that Rod Crosby is owed a big apology from his detractors. I know that I will look at his predictions with renewed interest.
(^_-)
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Ok - I'll take that back.antifrank said:
That's not fair on Nick Palmer, who turned up throughout record-breaking poll deficits for Labour in 2008 to fly the red flag.Scrapheap_as_was said:TSE = Rafa wouldn't be the worst pick but putting £ before team, I've got a chunk on Moyes at 40-1 to worry about.
I fear if ICM weighs in with a Level pegging poll or even Tory lead then PB will be bereft of compouter and NPxMP for a few days.0 -
I agree it is possible - but Cameron is SOMEHOW going to have to convince a large number of Kippers to lend him their vote in 2015. The Kippers on here are absolute in their certainty that a Conservative Govt. with a majority would still not deliver an In-Out referendum opportunity. This is where the UKIP case falls down - and if a year of the Tories banging on about this makes an impression, then maybe these Euro-Kippers will hold their noses and vote Con on 2015.SeanT said:It's now possible to see a clear route to a Tory overall majority.
These voters - and not the LibDem 2010 switchers - hold the key to May 2015.
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Eh? Do you not understand the word 'if'?Alanbrooke said:arf
dream on Richard, Cameron is the PM who can't win a majority. HP I'm afraid, not enough bankers or estate agents in North Warwickshire.
I was merely pointing out the disparity in Sean's logic. His premise would indicate that Miliband is right to try to defend his core vote.
I made no comment on whether the premise is justified or not.0 -
The low point for Labour at 2010 is open to debate. How many (and it will be a substantial number) of the 2010 Labour was in the belief that Gordon had gravitas on the economy?FrancisUrquhart said:
Serious question. Could you outline your reasoning behind thinking they could win it handsomely? Where will all the extra Tory votes come from, how far do you think Labour share can really drop, etc?RodCrosby said:
I've said for at least two years that the Tories will win the PV, probably handsomely...SeanT said:
I've been out on the razzle, here in Bangkok. All in all a good night.JBriskin said:I thought we were talking about this all afternoon - at least SeanT's happy.
This is a SERIOUSLY worrying poll for Labour. A year from the election, the economy improving fast, and they are two points BEHIND??
And Ed's ratings are abysmal.
Any lefty who pretends to be unconcerned today is a liar.
Conventional wisdom states that Labour % at the last GE was the absolute utter rock bottom, and that have to do better this time around, plus pi$$ed off ex-Lib Dem voters.
On the flip side, Cameron couldn't gain a very high % at the last GE, despite his opponent being widely despised. This time around, he himself has various baggage and for the older more right wing voter, UKIP has become a party where they appear happy to cast their vote.
My personal opinion is that UKIP level will drop back some what, but I can't see how the Tories can at very very best win by a small margin and resulting in a hung parliament.
How many (despite the reports) will not be so scared of a Tory win, as the last 5 years haven't resulted in social collapse and the removal of all benefits and the compulsory consumption of the one in every three babies? There are good reasons to suspect that the true Labour core is 24% to 26%, add the Red Lib Dems, and that will not get them much beyond 32%.
Where are the Tory votes coming from? Look back at old opinion polls and see how close they were to 40% in this parliament.
While it may not happen, it is possible.0 -
Having seen England Squad reminded me that you never win anything with Mboys.0
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Something else to remember about 2010 is that Labour did very, very well in Wales and Scotland.philiph said:
The low point for Labour at 2010 is open to debate. How many (and it will be a substantial number) of the 2010 Labour was in the belief that Gordon had gravitas on the economy?FrancisUrquhart said:
Serious question. Could you outline your reasoning behind thinking they could win it handsomely? Where will all the extra Tory votes come from, how far do you think Labour share can really drop, etc?RodCrosby said:
I've said for at least two years that the Tories will win the PV, probably handsomely...SeanT said:
I've been out on the razzle, here in Bangkok. All in all a good night.JBriskin said:I thought we were talking about this all afternoon - at least SeanT's happy.
This is a SERIOUSLY worrying poll for Labour. A year from the election, the economy improving fast, and they are two points BEHIND??
And Ed's ratings are abysmal.
Any lefty who pretends to be unconcerned today is a liar.
Conventional wisdom states that Labour % at the last GE was the absolute utter rock bottom, and that have to do better this time around, plus pi$$ed off ex-Lib Dem voters.
On the flip side, Cameron couldn't gain a very high % at the last GE, despite his opponent being widely despised. This time around, he himself has various baggage and for the older more right wing voter, UKIP has become a party where they appear happy to cast their vote.
My personal opinion is that UKIP level will drop back some what, but I can't see how the Tories can at very very best win by a small margin and resulting in a hung parliament.
How many (despite the reports) will not be so scared of a Tory win, as the last 5 years haven't resulted in social collapse and the removal of all benefits and the compulsory consumption of the one in every three babies? There are good reasons to suspect that the true Labour core is 24% to 26%, add the Red Lib Dems, and that will not get them much beyond 32%.
Where are the Tory votes coming from? Look back at old opinion polls and see how close they were to 40% in this parliament.
While it may not happen, it is possible.
Ed won't do anything like as well as Gordon Brown in Scotland.
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Meanwhile, we have ICM to look forward to. I'm assuming that UKIP will see a good uptick in the polls. Past experience would suggest that should harm the Conservatives more than Labour, so if we see something different this time, that will be informative. Mind you, if we see the same this time, that also will be informative.0
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So you're on for another HP ?Richard_Nabavi said:
Eh? Do you not understand the word 'if'?Alanbrooke said:arf
dream on Richard, Cameron is the PM who can't win a majority. HP I'm afraid, not enough bankers or estate agents in North Warwickshire.
I was merely pointing out the disparity in Sean's logic. His premise would indicate that Miliband is right to try to defend his core vote.
I made no comment on whether the premise is justified or not.0 -
UK-Elect has it even closer Con 305 vs Lab 301 (with the SNP winning 15 seats and UKIP 10 seats)0
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My understanding is that the ICM poll will be out this evening - in the next hour so hopefully0
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That may be so in vote-share terms, but probably not in terms of seats won - Scottish seats are unusual in that there are very few marginals. I'd expect Labour and the SNP between them to gain from the LibDems, but not much else to change.GIN1138 said:Ed won't do anything like as well as Gordon Brown in Scotland.
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A week or so back, YouGov told us 13% of the voters think Mr Cameron is honest.MarqueeMark said:
I agree it is possible - but Cameron is SOMEHOW going to have to convince a large number of Kippers to lend him their vote in 2015. The Kippers on here are absolute in their certainty that a Conservative Govt. with a majority would still not deliver an In-Out referendum opportunity. This is where the UKIP case falls down - and if a year of the Tories banging on about this makes an impression, then maybe these Euro-Kippers will hold their noses and vote Con on 2015.SeanT said:It's now possible to see a clear route to a Tory overall majority.
These voters - and not the LibDem 2010 switchers - hold the key to May 2015.
The last Survation poll said 11% of current-UKIP would consider switching to Conservative on a squeeze question.
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Looking at the numbers. Without speculating on veracity, Labour on 32 have almost nothing to squeeze without a total collapse of Lib Dem seats. The Tories have 3-5 percent of UKIP to much at and still leave UKIP in double figures.
I'm fairly confident at this stage the Lib Dems will be under their seat score from 1997' and probably somewhere near 92.0 -
In essence, because Labour have not been doing well enough in the harbingers of victory, be it by-elections, local elections, polls, and seemingly now the Euros (all relative to the Tories). Plus first-term governments are relatively hard to dislodge, Cameron is, historically, a relatively popular PM, and Miliband is a muppet...FrancisUrquhart said:
Serious question. Could you outline your reasoning behind thinking they could win it handsomely? Where will all the extra Tory votes come from, how far do you think Labour share can really drop, etc?RodCrosby said:
I've said for at least two years that the Tories will win the PV, probably handsomely...SeanT said:
I've been out on the razzle, here in Bangkok. All in all a good night.JBriskin said:I thought we were talking about this all afternoon - at least SeanT's happy.
This is a SERIOUSLY worrying poll for Labour. A year from the election, the economy improving fast, and they are two points BEHIND??
And Ed's ratings are abysmal.
Any lefty who pretends to be unconcerned today is a liar.
Conventional wisdom states that Labour % at the last GE was the absolute utter rock bottom, and that have to do better this time around, plus pi$$ed off ex-Lib Dem voters.
On the flip side, Cameron couldn't gain a very high % at the last GE, despite his opponent being widely despised. This time around, he himself has various baggage and for the older more right wing voter, UKIP has become a party where they appear happy to cast their vote.
My personal opinion is that UKIP level will drop back some what, but I can't see how the Tories can at very very best win by a small margin and resulting in a hung parliament.
Predicting actual vote shares and seats is a more tricky proposition, but who'll come out on top in the PV is relatively straightforward.0 -
I think that's quite a salient point. I can see both main parties doing less well in their core areas. Ed is Scotland and Northern England , Dave suffering from UKIP. What makes the result unpredicatble is will this actually change anything ? My MP could lose 10k votes to UKIP and still breeze through. At the end of the day it's only the marginals that count.GIN1138 said:
Something else to remember about 2010 is that Labour did very, very well in Wales and Scotland.philiph said:
The low point for Labour at 2010 is open to debate. How many (and it will be a substantial number) of the 2010 Labour was in the belief that Gordon had gravitas on the economy?FrancisUrquhart said:
Serious question. Could you outline your reasoning behind thinking they could win it handsomely? Where will all the extra Tory votes come from, how far do you think Labour share can really drop, etc?RodCrosby said:
I've said for at least two years that the Tories will win the PV, probably handsomely...SeanT said:
I've been out on the razzle, here in Bangkok. All in all a good night.JBriskin said:I thought we were talking about this all afternoon - at least SeanT's happy.
This is a SERIOUSLY worrying poll for Labour. A year from the election, the economy improving fast, and they are two points BEHIND??
And Ed's ratings are abysmal.
Any lefty who pretends to be unconcerned today is a liar.
Conventional wisdom states that Labour % at the last GE was the absolute utter rock bottom, and that have to do better this time around, plus pi$$ed off ex-Lib Dem voters.
On the flip side, Cameron couldn't gain a very high % at the last GE, despite his opponent being widely despised. This time around, he himself has various baggage and for the older more right wing voter, UKIP has become a party where they appear happy to cast their vote.
My personal opinion is that UKIP level will drop back some what, but I can't see how the Tories can at very very best win by a small margin and resulting in a hung parliament.
How many (despite the reports) will not be so scared of a Tory win, as the last 5 years haven't resulted in social collapse and the removal of all benefits and the compulsory consumption of the one in every three babies? There are good reasons to suspect that the true Labour core is 24% to 26%, add the Red Lib Dems, and that will not get them much beyond 32%.
Where are the Tory votes coming from? Look back at old opinion polls and see how close they were to 40% in this parliament.
While it may not happen, it is possible.
Ed won't do anything like as well as Gordon Brown in Scotland.0 -
631 seats. Northern Ireland = 18. 631+18 = 649HarryHayfield said:UK-Elect has it even closer Con 305 vs Lab 301 (with the SNP winning 15 seats and UKIP 10 seats)
I'll assume the Greens lose a seat,
ONE Lib Dem Hold ?!!!!!!!!!!!!! (Which MUST_ be Carmichael)
I know they're doing not so well but Charlie Kennedy, Clegg and Farron losing their seats is a stretch.
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In betting terms I'm in a very nice profitable position on anything from 200 to 400+ Con seats. As I've said before, the outcome is still subject to considerable uncertainty; I think a hung parliament remains the most likely, but either Con Maj or Lab Maj remains perfectly possible.Alanbrooke said:So you're on for another HP ?
I shall be fine-tuning my position as we get more info and as sentiment changes.0 -
DrSpyn - they did look a bit crap - but I don't follow the football enough to know how badly they'll do.0
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Well best of luck Richard. :-)Richard_Nabavi said:
In betting terms I'm in a very nice profitable position on anything from 200 to 400+ Con seats. As I've said before, the outcome is still subject to considerable uncertainty; I think a hung parliament remains the most likely, but either Con Maj or Lab Maj remains perfectly possible.Alanbrooke said:So you're on for another HP ?
I shall be fine-tuning my position as we get more info and as sentiment changes.
Cameron's tragedy remains he couldn't break out of the South and cement a con govt for a couple of Parliaments.0 -
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Wow. Really surprising after a very poor set of polls for the tories over the weekend. Things are bouncing about a bit at the moment and I would not assume too much until we see ICM.
I still feel that disappointment bordering on despair about the inadequacies of Miliband have been held in check by the poll lead, however slender. The next few weeks will be interesting if this is not a flash in the pan.0 -
So Ed Miliband is rubbish at pool as well as politics...
http://order-order.com/2014/05/12/watch-eds-big-break/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter0 -
@JBriskin I just hope that they can score a few goals before they get their early flights home. They can't be worse than the golden shower who failed to deliver in South Africa. It was bad enough listening to the match against Germany, it would have been worse to have been able to watch it live. Even the highlights were dire. Germany played great football that day, England did not.0
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Then the Tories would replace the LDs. Would the Greens still be green, or would they be continuity-Labour?MikeK said:I was hoping that eventually UKIP would replace the Tories; it would be funny if they replaced Labour.
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@SeanT
I think it's a given that there will be some UKIP supporters that return to the Tories - at least a couple of points. But there will need to be a concerted effort to win them back for it to be enough. Cameron coming out and saying he's not going to do anything to stop cheap Eastern European labour from coming here isn't going to help. And if immigration doesn't fall further - it's still twice his target levels - he's going to need a plan to deal with that. If not EU migrants, then bring back the primary purpose rule, require a higher standard of English, two year relationships for married couples, etc.
He also needs to get over this stupid authoritarian crap. It just needlessly pisses off people that cares about civil liberties for no substantiated gain. He needs to get rid of the snooper's charter (for mobile phones and computers), pull out of the EAW and get a hold on GCHQ. There has to be a lot of right wingers out there - from centre-right liberals to very right wing Tories - that have a lot of angst over this and find it a lot easier to go back to the government if they did something of substance here.0 -
Finally a wake up call for the Labour high command?
If this doesn't make them realise that parrotting a few slogans like "cost-of-living crisis", squealing about the evil Tories, and merely pledging to fiddle around the edges of Tory spending plans, is a doomed strategy, then nothing will.0 -
The lead isn;t big enough Sean to win a majority. I'm on blues most votes, possibly most seats but not an outright majority.SeanT said:
On the day we get the first poll in this parliament which implies Cameron could, perhaps, win an overall majority, it's a bit bizarre to be using the term "Cameron's tragedy".Alanbrooke said:
Well best of luck Richard. :-)Richard_Nabavi said:
In betting terms I'm in a very nice profitable position on anything from 200 to 400+ Con seats. As I've said before, the outcome is still subject to considerable uncertainty; I think a hung parliament remains the most likely, but either Con Maj or Lab Maj remains perfectly possible.Alanbrooke said:So you're on for another HP ?
I shall be fine-tuning my position as we get more info and as sentiment changes.
Cameron's tragedy remains he couldn't break out of the South and cement a con govt for a couple of Parliaments.
The significant thing for me is not the Tory lead, but Labour on 32. That is desperately poor, for them. Surely their lowest national polling since about 2010?
I can't be arsed to check. But it must be a while since they were on 32.
Could we trade "Cameron's tragedy" for Gaylord Poncy Boots can't win a majority in his own right ?
But hey, really what do us two ethnics know ?0 -
To be fair to the guy, that table looks warped or on a slant.ToryJim said:So Ed Miliband is rubbish at pool as well as politics...
http://order-order.com/2014/05/12/watch-eds-big-break/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter0 -
From the unclicked URL I'm assuming there's some voodoo We're All Doomed Unless We Start Knitting Our Own Soup "science" at the end of it?OblitusSumMe said:0 -
"Nothing will" looks like the value bet there. For good or ill, Labour are now set on their strategy, I'd say.Danny565 said:Finally a wake up call for the Labour high command?
If this doesn't make them realise that parrotting a few slogans like "cost-of-living crisis", squealing about the evil Tories, and merely pledging to fiddle around the edges of Tory spending plans, is a doomed strategy, then nothing will.0 -
You are so wrong, both of you. The point is that UKIP, from a party, is turning a movement; similar to what Labour was 110 years ago. I have a fancy that by May 2015 UKIP may well have 100K members and double that in active supporters.SeanT said:
I think that once the kippers have vented their spleen, and won the euro elex (as now seems likely) their anger will dissipate and a chunk will return to the Tories..MarqueeMark said:
I agree it is possible - but Cameron is SOMEHOW going to have to convince a large number of Kippers to lend him their vote in 2015. The Kippers on here are absolute in their certainty that a Conservative Govt. with a majority would still not deliver an In-Out referendum opportunity. This is where the UKIP case falls down - and if a year of the Tories banging on about this makes an impression, then maybe these Euro-Kippers will hold their noses and vote Con on 2015.SeanT said:It's now possible to see a clear route to a Tory overall majority.
These voters - and not the LibDem 2010 switchers - hold the key to May 2015.
Remember that for many of them Europe is not an overriding issue. Many are just natural small c conservatives, the lower middle classes, a bit older than average, grumpy and irascible but not lunatic or obsessive. Probably most have a mortgage and/or a pension.
They are Thatcher's Tories, and when faced with a now clearly leftwing Miliband (I think he has swung absurdly left) I expect a fair proportion to hold their Noses and vote Cameron.
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Why would you do that? If ever there was a perennial 'last pick', it's EdM.Socrates said:
To be fair to the guyToryJim said:So Ed Miliband is rubbish at pool as well as politics...
http://order-order.com/2014/05/12/watch-eds-big-break/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
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Congratulations to the English Democrats PPB, the first one of the year to have me shouting at the TV. Mindless fecking Muppets.0
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Labour on 32?
So this is what happens when you let a cat chase your political opponents, rather than doing it yourself.
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Thanks, Antifrank. I'll be largely off air anyway from tomorrow for a few days as I'm going to be busy in Vietnam. Obviously a cheering poll for Tories, but let's see if there are a few more before we react too wildly...antifrank said:
That's not fair on Nick Palmer, who turned up throughout record-breaking poll deficits for Labour in 2008 to fly the red flag.Scrapheap_as_was said:TSE = Rafa wouldn't be the worst pick but putting £ before team, I've got a chunk on Moyes at 40-1 to worry about.
I fear if ICM weighs in with a Level pegging poll or even Tory lead then PB will be bereft of compouter and NPxMP for a few days.
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Perhaps Ed M has fallen foul of The Mikado
"The billiard-sharp whom anyone catches
His doom’s extremely hard—
He’s made to dwell
In a dungeon cell
On a spot that’s always barred.
And there he plays extravagant matches
In fitless finger-stalls,
On a cloth untrue
With a twisted cue
And elliptical billiard balls."0 -
Without wanting to pull people back from their giddyness, I'm not sure this tells us very much. Band new poll from new pollster with interesting result shock. Even where we have had big name pollsters showing genuine neck and neck polls it's never lasted, so quite why this one will be any different is beyond me.
We also need to wait for the marginals poll, because last time around it showed Labour doing far better in the seats we need to win. National percentages do not translate into national seats won especially with regional parties, so piling up votes in seats you're already winning and losing them in key marginals does not equal good news.
We know the election is going to be tight. So it does come down to a seat by seat ground war.0 -
I am minded to vote An Independence From Europe at the euros, or maybe NO2EU, to pi55 off UKIP. And at the GE I shall vote Conservative, to...well...to pi55 off UKIP.0
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did they have an image of a cat and a 3 inch Nick Clegg too ?saddened said:Congratulations to the English Democrats PPB, the first one of the year to have me shouting at the TV. Mindless fecking Muppets.
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Have you considered voting for the "Party of In" ?Bond_James_Bond said:I am minded to vote An Independence From Europe at the euros, or maybe NO2EU, to pi55 off UKIP. And at the GE I shall vote Conservative, to...well...to pi55 off UKIP.
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During the Vetogasm the Tories had leads of 40-34 and 40-35 over Labour with ICM. UKIP were literally nowhere.SeanT said:On the day we get the first poll in this parliament which implies Cameron could, perhaps, win an overall majority, it's a bit bizarre to be using the term "Cameron's tragedy"
How short your memory is Mr Thomas - and how far have the horizons of Cameron's supporters shrunk that a poll score of 34% is treated as a triumph.
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The Crown Prosecution Service's application for leave to appeal His Honour Judge Leonard QC's order staying the indictment of Crawley and others as an abuse of process will be heard tomorrow by the Court of Appeal (Criminal Division). The court will be constituted by the President of the Queen's Bench Division, Sir Brian Leveson, and Lords Justice Davis and Treacy. The question is stark: is it still possible for a defendant who is not wealthy to receive a fair trial in a complex fraud case after the government's cuts to legal aid?0
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He also needs to get over this stupid authoritarian crap.
Amen to that.
Like all mainstream politicians he sides far too easily with big business, the CBI, the civil service, the EU, and any other giant and powerful vested interest that can get in front of him.
He needs to take the side of the little guy far, far more. The small business, the one man band, the pensioner, the housewife etc.
That's what people forget about Mrs Thatcher - she didn;t just smash working and chattering class vested interests. She shattered conservative old boy networks like the pre-big bang City, too.
She hated the old school tie as much as the closed shop.0 -
Opinium 13/8/2010 had Labour on 30. The last time they were on 32 or below, I think...SeanT said:
The significant thing for me is not the Tory lead, but Labour on 32. That is desperately poor, for them. Surely their lowest national polling since about 2010?
I can't be arsed to check. But it must be a while since they were on 32.
So this is Labour's worst ever poll under Miliband...0 -
Thanks for reading it so that the rest of us don't have to.SeanT said:
Oh god what a load of bollocks. "Something terrible might happen in 200 years. No, wait, 500 years. Scrap that, 1000 years."OblitusSumMe said:
"However we are DEFINITE it is happening. Really. Cause we checked. And I've got a degree."
Scientists Make Ludicrous Headline Grabbing Statement. More cartoons on page 9-15.
Much appreciated.
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The agony for the Tories is that they're heading for a popular vote win with almost no chance of an overall majority. But this is the system they love so much.0
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Well indeed. This thread is hilarious and should be preserved for future reference.OblitusSumMe said:
During the Vetogasm the Tories had leads of 40-34 and 40-35 over Labour with ICM. UKIP were literally nowhere.SeanT said:On the day we get the first poll in this parliament which implies Cameron could, perhaps, win an overall majority, it's a bit bizarre to be using the term "Cameron's tragedy"
How short your memory is Mr Thomas - and how far have the horizons of Cameron's supporters shrunk that a poll score of 34% is treated as a triumph.
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No It was Spitfires and War memorials that set me off. No necked dullards the lot of them.Alanbrooke said:
did they have an image of a cat and a 3 inch Nick Clegg too ?saddened said:Congratulations to the English Democrats PPB, the first one of the year to have me shouting at the TV. Mindless fecking Muppets.
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eds NHS speech is being tweeted... time to walk the dog
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It's a comfort poll with a small sample, has CON 15% ahead of LAB in the Midlands and more 2010LAB voting UKIP than 2010CON.
I've been in the business of polling for 4 years and I declare it: It's a poll for the recycling bin.0 -
I guess this poll increases the chances of Labour coming third in the Euros.0
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You sir, are gentleman. Keep your willy in your pants.Bond_James_Bond said:I am minded to vote An Independence From Europe at the euros, or maybe NO2EU, to pi55 off UKIP. And at the GE I shall vote Conservative, to...well...to pi55 off UKIP.
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In truth, under cockeyed FPTP, the only party with a realistic chance of a majority is Labour, but not next time, obviously!AndyJS said:The agony for the Tories is that they're heading for a popular vote win with almost no chance of an overall majority. But this is the system they love so much.
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But, the system serves them well (if not as well as Labour). Their share of seats almost always exceeds their share of the vote - and it works to depress support for right wing rivals.AndyJS said:The agony for the Tories is that they're heading for a popular vote win with almost no chance of an overall majority. But this is the system they love so much.
If we had PR, then the Conservatives would have to go into government with UKIP, and I think many of them would baulk at that.
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48 Hours to see a GP:Scrapheap_as_was said:eds NHS speech is being tweeted... time to walk the dog
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-27377978
How's the NHS doing in Wales after 15 years of Labour control?
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To be fair the "system" might've been 25 seats "fairer" had the LibDens not had a flounce about boundary changes. How the hell we are lumbered with a system where a vote in Stornaway is worth five times one in Ryde on the IOW beggars belief. Personally I'd prefer a version of the German system of lists mixed with constituencies so that majorities in good years were possible but rare.AndyJS said:The agony for the Tories is that they're heading for a popular vote win with almost no chance of an overall majority. But this is the system they love so much.
Totally off topic, a nice half bottle of chilled red (yes chilled) Chinon from the Loire has arrived at my table on the outskirts of Paris. So life's not unbearably grim. Sante!0 -
I don't want to be distracted from laughing at Labour (especially as it may be short lived) but this is an alternative view from an organisation who are undoubtedly true believers in AGW: http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/
On 7th May they said: "In the Antarctic, sea ice continued to reach record high extents."
Arctic ice, although still well below the long term average, remains significantly up on last year.0 -
A GP appointment in 48 hours would be nice. I have one tomorrow that I booked two weeks ago...0
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Well I have posted the evidence that suggests that if this poll is accurate then Rasmussen is a neutral pollster.felix said:
Lol - 4 years you're such an expert!Speedy said:It's a comfort poll with a small sample, has CON 15% ahead of LAB in the Midlands and more 2010LAB voting UKIP than 2010CON.
I've been in the business of polling for 4 years and I declare it: It's a poll for the recycling bin.
It's a comfort poll. (4 years doing polls, i'm reading them since 2000)
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"If" labour poll sub 30 you believe we will see another Cameron led government.SeanT said:
Er, as I specifically say down thread , the significant thing for me is not the Tory lead, or the Tory score, it's Labour on 32. As I guessed (and as Rod the Great Prognosticator has confirmed), this is Labour's worst poll since 2010. THAT is significant.OblitusSumMe said:
During the Vetogasm the Tories had leads of 40-34 and 40-35 over Labour with ICM. UKIP were literally nowhere.SeanT said:On the day we get the first poll in this parliament which implies Cameron could, perhaps, win an overall majority, it's a bit bizarre to be using the term "Cameron's tragedy"
How short your memory is Mr Thomas - and how far have the horizons of Cameron's supporters shrunk that a poll score of 34% is treated as a triumph.
It is now quite easy to see Labour falling into the 20s, given Ed's appalling personal ratings (which do not improve with time or acquaintance) and if Labour poll sub 30 in 2015 I believe we will see another Cameron-led government.
And now I must abed. Fab evening in sultry bangkok.
Not one of your bravest forecasts!0 -
You are joking, Carlotta. I phoned my GP for an appointment with my doctor and got the brush off with a 5 week wait to see the doctor of my choice, although I could see a registrar in a couple of days. Thats the NHS in a nutshell, and it doesn't matter which of the Lab/Lib/Con parties are in government.CarlottaVance said:
48 Hours to see a GP:Scrapheap_as_was said:eds NHS speech is being tweeted... time to walk the dog
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-27377978
How's the NHS doing in Wales after 15 years of Labour control?
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Does anyone know the timing on ICM? I want to go for my tea.0
This discussion has been closed.