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  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,794

    Has that shipment of PPE from Turkey arrived?

    As if it was ever going to arrive.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,137

    Yes, well put.

    The lack of news is a genuine problem, I think. Fluff is having to be used by broadcasters and print media to fill time and space.

    I do think the trajectory will be somewhat useful in estimating Rt. If each generation takes about a week, as seems to be the assumption in the models, then a 20% week-on-week decrease in London hospital deaths, which I vaguely remember seeing yesterday somewhere, would suggest Rt=0.8 now (well, a couple of weeks ago, and this probably excludes that part of the population which are not hospitalized for it). The boffins will be doing a more sophisticated version of this calculation.

    --AS
    There were 16 people killed in a shooting spree in Canada yesterday which I'm not even sure was mentioned here. It's not so much that there's no news, just that the virus has swamped everything else to the point that folk would rather have Corona fluff over actual news.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,396
    Mr. Sandpit, by 'ads' I meant with the Youtuber directly not via Youtube (so the Youtuber in question might promote a VPN, say).

    Mr. Urquhart, aye, I've heard for a while Youtube was all about family channels, and has recently reversed that.

    Patreon and the like does offer some greater degree of stability (although I've heard Patreon itself might be struggling a bit).
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    I thought it was Northern Rock ...
    Originally, yes, but CYBG (Clydesdale + Yorkshire) bought it last year

    https://www.finextra.com/newsarticle/34606/cybg-to-relaunch-as-virgin-money
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,396
    Mr. Divvie, I mentioned the mass shooting earlier.

    I think half-hour sections of news with nothing on ye olde plague would be a wise move on the news front.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    eadric said:

    I find it very hard to read books that aren't actually about plague, or contagion, or viruses, or pandemic history, etc etc

    And I'm doing a lot of reading.
    I'm reading a very good book about Alfred.

    Viking incursions make a welcome change from plague
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976

    If we do go over the 1,000, then that is shit politics. Why implement the change to make to appear things are getting no better/maybe worse?

    Which makes me think, maybe they know we won't top the 1,000. And the new reporting metric will then show a significant daily lowering of deaths. Maybe?
    To be clear, the change is they've added a graph to the front page of the file. It makes no difference to the numbers at all.

    I have no explanation as to why we have a reporting delay this week (and two weeks ago) when had no discernible impact of the Bank Holiday weekend, but there you go.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,877
    RobD said:

    I'm sorry, but we were discussing your claim that someone was stating a 550% mortality rate for the Chinese figures. Your questions have nothing to do with that, so I can only assume it is deflection.
    Assume what you like, but please don't complain if I consider you a complete mopron!
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,550

    Traditional voters who stuck by Labour in 2017 did so in large part because they were supporting their well regarded Labour MP, who they had been voting for long before Corbyn arrived on the scene. The well publicised hostility of local Labour MPs to Corbyn didn't prevent people voting for such MPs in their constituencies. Yet had Labour been perceived to be at the races in that campaign, such that there was a genuine prospect of Corbyn becoming MP, many would have run a mile.

    In 2019 we had politically motivated targeting of unwinnable seats by the Corbyn dominated party machine, while seats that should have been defended were ignored. That worked out well, didn't it, with Labour ending up losing far more seats than the polls had predicted.
    So those Labour MPs and officials working against Corbyn were actually on the sly working FOR him.

    First he had to be thought a surefire loser to sucker Mrs May into calling the election. Then - during the election itself - he had to continue to look like a surefire loser so as to get people who couldn't stand him to vote Labour knowing that they hadn't got a cat's chance in hell of winning.

    It is possible, I suppose.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    edited April 2020

    If we do go over the 1,000, then that is shit politics. Why implement the change to make to appear things are getting no better/maybe worse?

    Which makes me think, maybe they know we won't top the 1,000. And the new reporting metric will then show a significant daily lowering of deaths. Maybe?
    It's not a major change to the format, just prominence. The figures by date of death are regularly posted here and you can follow them on Twitter already (the very helpful @cricketwyvern)

    I don't quite agree with Endillion's interpretation, though. Yesterday and today are the first real evidence of green shoots we've had, as opposed to a plateau. Even recording quibbles are unlikely to completely make up for that.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,251
    edited April 2020
    Captain Tom just about to go through £27m......

    ...and he's done it.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    edited April 2020
    Chris said:

    Assume what you like, but please don't complain if I consider you a complete mopron!
    Insults add nothing to this site.

    You are entitled to your private opinion, but don't pollute others' reading with them
  • isamisam Posts: 41,135
    Chris said:

    Assume what you like, but please don't complain if I consider you a complete mopron!
    Beautifully put.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,317
    Chris said:

    Assume what you like, but please don't complain if I consider you a complete mopron!
    Charming, but again deflection from your central claim that was the point of contention.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,347
    Charles said:

    I'm reading a very good book about Alfred.

    Viking incursions make a welcome change from plague
    I've been reading the Shape novels, fighting the French being more on brand for PB
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,124
    Foxy said:

    On a more cheerful note, it is an ill wind that blows no good...


    I'm reminded of Diana's death, where the BBC unforgettably made this blooper:

    'Prince Charles will first go to the hospital where Princess Diana died, where he will thank the staff.'
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,647
    edited April 2020
    Chris said:

    I'm sorry, but we were discussing your claim that someone was stating a 550% mortality rate for the Chinese figures. Your questions have nothing to do with that, so I can only assume it is deflection.

    Assume what you like, but please don't complain if I consider you a complete mopron!

    Mopron indeed!

    But, spittle-flecked keyboard aside, and while it's good to see you back on form, and realising that it is part of your coping mechanism, I can't help thinking that your posting style is doing you more harm than good.

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,251

    It's not a major change to the format, just prominence. The figures by date of death are regularly posted here and you can follow them on Twitter already (the very helpful @cricketwyvern)

    I don't quite agree with Endillion's interpretation, though. Yesterday and today are the first real evidence of green shoots we've had, as opposed to a plateau. Even recording quibbles are unlikely to completely make up for that.
    I do hope you are right. The UK needs some indication that the past four weeks have been worth it.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    There were 16 people killed in a shooting spree in Canada yesterday which I'm not even sure was mentioned here. It's not so much that there's no news, just that the virus has swamped everything else to the point that folk would rather have Corona fluff over actual news.
    The current oil price should be getting a lot more attention than it is. If it continues at anything like the current price for any length of time, there are some countries (never mind companies) in fearful trouble, over and above the Covid-19 crisis.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,124
    So to summarise earlier comments:

    When it comes to airlines, BA's operations should be bailed out but -

    We should screw Virgin's.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,132

    Captain Tom just about to go through £27m......

    ...and he's done it.

    I hope we are getting some extra laps out of him for all this extra money!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,124

    The current oil price should be getting a lot more attention than it is. If it continues at anything like the current price for any length of time, there are some countries (never mind companies) in fearful trouble, over and above the Covid-19 crisis.
    It would be incredibly sad to see the governments of Venezuela, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Russia and Kazakhstan be plunged into turmoil.

    Heart of stone...
  • A family friend was at university with the police officer shot in Nova Scotia. She is from Halifax, but now lives in Sydney (Aus) via some years in Vancouver, and Is understandably very upset today. Her father lives within six miles of the shootings
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,317

    I hope we are getting some extra laps out of him for all this extra money!
    I hope not! He should not be exerting himself too much at his age!
  • ydoethur said:

    It would be incredibly sad to see the governments of Venezuela, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Russia and Kazakhstan be plunged into turmoil.

    Heart of stone...
    The poor Geordies, they’ll be wanting Ashley back at this rate.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,098

    I believe there are massive disparities in the ad rates for different types of content and at different times of year. Some channels that might only get a few 100k views per video actually make a significant amount of money and sometimes it can be just one video going viral at the right time that makes a substantial proportion of a year money.

    Hence the sponsorship / patreon to try and provide consistent base level of income every month.
    Some of my favourite channels don't receive much advertising money ;) I like to check all viewpoints ^_~
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    ydoethur said:

    It would be incredibly sad to see the governments of Venezuela, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Russia and Kazakhstan be plunged into turmoil.

    Heart of stone...
    We can all thank Putin for the cheap petrol when this is all over. He tried to screw over the US shale industry and had his bluff called by the Saudis - who reckon their marginal extraction cost is less than $3 a barrel.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,550
    eadric said:

    I find it very hard to read books that aren't actually about plague, or contagion, or viruses, or pandemic history, etc etc

    And I'm doing a lot of reading.
    The dead opposite of escapism. Is there a word for this?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,396
    Mr. Eadric, I read a biography of Alfred by Justin Pollard that I enjoyed a lot.

    Or for a more fun approach to Vikings you could try the Unofficial Manual by John Haywood. (It's a nice little series, other entries being Legionary, Knight, Gladiator, and Samurai).
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,045
    Endillion said:

    Pretty much. Excluding April 8 (which everyone gets excited about but looks much more like an outlier than a genuine peak), every day from Apr 3 onwards currently looks likely to end up at somewhere between 600 and 800.

    The main good bits of news are a) it definitely has stopped getting worse, and b) it looks like reporting has sped up, so I'm potentially overestimating the ultimate position of the more recent days. There are some potential interpretations of the data that show a clear, albeit gentle, downward trend from Apr 11 onwards (top give you an idea, 730 on Apr 11 vs 660 on Apr 16). Still too early to have much confidence in this, though.

    The other thing is there is a slight trend in the regional pattern away from London - but probably insufficient data to tell if that's due to London moving beyond a peak, or the rest of the country approaching one.
    It does look rather plateau-ish.

    Looking at the deaths per date as at immediately after the "grey" period of "data highly subject to change" (it does still increase after that, but less rapidly) in order to try to compare things at least somewhat similar to each other.
    (NB data for 28 March is that of one day after the others, as the daily data wasn't easily still available, so would in actuality be likely a little below that position (thus marked with dashed line); data for 15 April is still one day before the grey period ends and in reality will be higher than the given position (thus marked with dotted line))


  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,347
    It would appear my neighbours have decided to acquire a cockerel during this lockdown. Is sneaking over the fence and throttling it to keep quiet a violation of lockdown?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,317
    kinabalu said:

    The dead opposite of escapism. Is there a word for this?
    Realism?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,124
    Sandpit said:

    We can all thank Putin for the cheap petrol when this is all over. He tried to screw over the US shale industry and had his bluff called by the Saudis - who reckon their marginal extraction cost is less than $3 a barrel.
    Another question might be, how is this affecting the prices of natural gas? I'm genuinely asking because I don't know. Deflation there would be pretty seriously good news given how reliant our energy sector is on it.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,124
    kinabalu said:

    The dead opposite of escapism. Is there a word for this?
    Stockholm Syndrome?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,161
    edited April 2020
    It's possible there may be particular features of this virus that mean most deaths take place in the first wave and that the chances of a second or third wave being worse are relatively low. I'd like to read/hear expert commentary on this.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,396
    Mr. kle4, it's an offence to beat a cock without permission of the owner.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,124
    kle4 said:

    It would appear my neighbours have decided to acquire a cockerel during this lockdown. Is sneaking over the fence and throttling it to keep quiet a violation of lockdown?

    Not necessarily, but be careful how you phrase it. 'I just hopped over the fence to squeeze my neighbour's cock' might be misunderstood.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    ydoethur said:

    Another question might be, how is this affecting the prices of natural gas? I'm genuinely asking because I don't know. Deflation there would be pretty seriously good news given how reliant our energy sector is on it.
    Gas prices are down, but not off 85% like the oil price. More volatile and seasonal market than oil though.

    https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/commodities/ng:nmx
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,124

    Mr. kle4, it's an offence to beat a cock without permission of the owner.

    Maybe tell Jolyon Maugham it was caught in chicken wire.

    However, he's the sort of man who fox everything up.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    eadric said:

    What's the book? (I love Dark Age History, where myth blends into fact)
    https://www.amazon.co.uk/Alfred-Great-Justin-Pollard/dp/0719566665

    High level narrative - not my period, but was reading Our Island Story and thought I should check the details...
  • isamisam Posts: 41,135
    edited April 2020
    eadric said:

    Another, more positive spin from a number cruncher

    https://twitter.com/TomChivers/status/1252238683077586946?s=20

    8th April. The people whose graphs I have been posting, and been slagged off for doing so by the angry mob, have been saying this a while
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,124
    Sandpit said:

    Gas prices are down, but not off 85% like the oil price. More volatile and seasonal market than oil though.

    https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/commodities/ng:nmx
    Thanks, interesting website.

    Even if they're not as off the chart as the oil price collapse, interesting to see they have only been this low twice in the last ten years.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,550
    @MarqueeMark

    Where did you get the thing about SMOKERS being relatively immune to the virus?

    I find this to be a thrilling (!) little factoid if true.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,396
    As an aside, the popularity of cockfighting (until a couple of centuries ago it was the most popular of sports in England) may be why the slang for todger in English is 'cock'. Could be wrong, but I think it's 'dog' in most other European languages.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,098
    @isam Skimming through the numbers I'd say we're reporting more quickly now. It'd make sense for reporting systems to improve as we've gone through this.
    I'd be prepared to say the 8th April is almost certainly a first lockdown peak.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,161
    kinabalu said:

    @MarqueeMark

    Where did you get the thing about SMOKERS being relatively immune to the virus?

    I find this to be a thrilling (!) little factoid if true.

    This contradicts it:

    "Smokers 14 times more likely to contract coronavirus
    According to research by Chinese doctors, acute smokers are more at risk of dying from COVID-19 than elderly people."

    https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/04/smokers-14-times-contract-coronavirus-200416071258252.html
  • isamisam Posts: 41,135
    edited April 2020
    Andy_JS said:

    It's possible there may be particular features of this virus that mean most deaths take place in the first wave and that the chances of a second or third wave being worse are relatively low. I'd like to read/hear expert commentary on this.

    Not an expert giving commentary, but...


    Maybe it is a flat track bully, it kills a lot of the vulnerable very quickly and can’t land much of a blow on the rest. The amount on under 60s dying is about 6% of covid deaths. Yet we keep hearing how vulnerable we all are.

    The Swedish prof on unherd seems to think so. He puts their high death rate compared to Norway down to the difference in size of Norwegian and Swedish care homes
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,419

    I've heard it recommended that parents praise their children a lot.

    Must admit, as a child it led to me starting to ignore my parents' opinions because I quickly realised they weren't remotely discriminating.

    Better to do that that relentlessly criticise.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 29,853

    I hope we are getting some extra laps out of him for all this extra money!
    Captain Tom's cost per lap is going to have @rcs1000 moaning about low British productivity again.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,550
    RobD said:

    Realism?
    Sort of. But that is the middle ground between undue optimism and undue pessimism. So not quite the opposite of escapism.

    There must be a word. Or if there isn't it needs coining.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,199
    Andy_JS said:

    It's possible there may be particular features of this virus that mean most deaths take place in the first wave and that the chances of a second or third wave being worse are relatively low. I'd like to read/hear expert commentary on this.

    Physics teacher who has to teach GCSE biology, so not that expert...

    Normally, you'd expect viruses to evolve to something less deadly; the variants that let the host live longer get more time to reproduce and spread. The 1918/19 flu was unusual in the nastiness of the second wave; that might have been driven by the unusual circumstances (soldiers who got it mildly stayed where they were, those who got it badly were sent away from treatment, enhancing the spread).

    Or something like that. Back on with your work, Year 10.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,953
    ydoethur said:

    Not necessarily, but be careful how you phrase it. 'I just hopped over the fence to squeeze my neighbour's cock' might be misunderstood.
    Perhaps you should try choking his chicken?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,550
    ydoethur said:

    Stockholm Syndrome?
    See where you're coming from there. It's good.

    But it's not quite what we're looking for.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,124
    kyf_100 said:

    Perhaps you should try choking his chicken?
    Why should I choke @kle4's chicken? It's his neighbour's cock that's the problem.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,251
    Andy_JS said:

    This contradicts it:

    "Smokers 14 times more likely to contract coronavirus
    According to research by Chinese doctors, acute smokers are more at risk of dying from COVID-19 than elderly people."

    https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/04/smokers-14-times-contract-coronavirus-200416071258252.html
    Must be tricky getting data in China, when the doctors are saying all these smokers are dead, whilst the local Communist Party officials keep insisting, no they are absolutely fine....
  • isamisam Posts: 41,135
    RobD said:

    Realism?
    “Realism? I caught a fucking dose off it!”

    Punchline to a Bernard Manning joke about a blow up doll
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 29,853

    Better to do that that relentlessly criticise.
    Some say parents should praise effort rather than achievement to avoid raising lazy smartarses; or something about kids becoming reluctant to ask questions about things they don't understand. Maybe all this confusion is why the rich outsource childcare to nannies, governesses and boarding schools.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,347
    ydoethur said:

    Why should I choke @kle4's chicken? It's his neighbour's cock that's the problem.
    I am proud to have raised the tenor of debate today.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,124
    kle4 said:

    I am proud to have raised the tenor of debate today.
    No need to crow about it...
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,251
    kle4 said:

    It would appear my neighbours have decided to acquire a cockerel during this lockdown. Is sneaking over the fence and throttling it to keep quiet a violation of lockdown?

    Do you think you could pullet off?
  • eekeek Posts: 29,555

    Physics teacher who has to teach GCSE biology, so not that expert...

    Normally, you'd expect viruses to evolve to something less deadly; the variants that let the host live longer get more time to reproduce and spread. The 1918/19 flu was unusual in the nastiness of the second wave; that might have been driven by the unusual circumstances (soldiers who got it mildly stayed where they were, those who got it badly were sent away from treatment, enhancing the spread).

    Or something like that. Back on with your work, Year 10.
    Isn't that a repeat of Scotland and the black death. Scotland invades in 1349 and doesn't succeed much except catching the black death and rapidly spreading across the country as the soldiers returned.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,135
    eadric said:

    This is a crisp analysis of the corona data.

    Basically, it all comes down to how many old men there are. If your country has lots, you're in trouble.

    This also implies strict lockdowns aren't necessary, maybe (tho Greece suggests they might be, confusingly)

    Def worth a read

    https://marketmonetarist.com/2020/04/20/one-factor-explains-most-of-the-differences-in-covid19-deaths-across-countries/

    Poor countries where men have to work hard physically better off?
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,045
    isam said:

    Not an expert giving commentary, but...


    Maybe it is a flat track bully, it kills a lot of the vulnerable very quickly and can’t land much of a blow on the rest. The amount on under 60s dying is about 6% of covid deaths. Yet we keep hearing how vulnerable we all are.

    The Swedish prof on unherd seems to think so. He puts their high death rate compared to Norway down to the difference in size of Norwegian and Swedish care homes
    That's an impressive effect. If they had the same ratios, Swedish death toll would be 311 rather than 1,540.
    The care home size quintuples the death toll in Sweden?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 29,853

    Physics teacher who has to teach GCSE biology, so not that expert...

    Normally, you'd expect viruses to evolve to something less deadly; the variants that let the host live longer get more time to reproduce and spread. The 1918/19 flu was unusual in the nastiness of the second wave; that might have been driven by the unusual circumstances (soldiers who got it mildly stayed where they were, those who got it badly were sent away from treatment, enhancing the spread).

    Or something like that. Back on with your work, Year 10.
    A friend told of a physics teacher teaching biology saying to one of the girls: don't feed the worms, you might frighten them; let one of the pretty girls do it. Wasn't you by any chance? Actually I think said teacher later died with dementia so perhaps that was one of the first signs.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281
    Charles said:

    * Super senior = security above everything else. If they don't repay we get the plans, the brand, everything down to the cabin crews uniform

    * mid-teen coupon = 15% interest rate

    * 1/2 cash, 1/2 PIK = only 7.5% p.a. in cash, with the balance of the interest rolled up with the loan

    * 20% equity stake as warrants = we get to take a 20% equity stake for a nominal value when we decide to do

    * Escalating coupon = 15% p.a. up to year 3, 17.5% in year 4, 20% in year 5... incentivise them to refinance the loan with someone else by making it very expensive
    Thank you - you think they'd accept it?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,970
    eadric said:

    Er, OK.

    *backing away from mad person emoji*



    The emoji you are looking for is truth hurts.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,137
    kinabalu said:

    Sort of. But that is the middle ground between undue optimism and undue pessimism. So not quite the opposite of escapism.

    There must be a word. Or if there isn't it needs coining.
    Catastrophe wanking.

    But that's two words.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,550
    Andy_JS said:

    This contradicts it:

    "Smokers 14 times more likely to contract coronavirus
    According to research by Chinese doctors, acute smokers are more at risk of dying from COVID-19 than elderly people."

    https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/04/smokers-14-times-contract-coronavirus-200416071258252.html
    So what I heard was that smokers are less likely to get the virus but more likely to die if they do get it.

    Has an air of urban myth about it to me.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,550

    Better to do that that relentlessly criticise.
    That's verging on child abuse IMO, if you do that.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,421
    kinabalu said:

    So what I heard was that smokers are less likely to get the virus but more likely to die if they do get it.

    Has an air of urban myth about it to me.
    Can cigarette smoke carry the virus? Cigarette smoke doesn't obey the 2 metre rule...
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,396
    King Cole, indeed, but there's a huge yawning chasm between the two extremes.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,132
    edited April 2020
    kinabalu said:

    So what I heard was that smokers are less likely to get the virus but more likely to die if they do get it.

    Has an air of urban myth about it to me.
    There was definitely a Chinese study that found this and was put up on a pre-print server. But I believe a lot of these rely on people being asked if they are a smoker. Its a bit like asking people if they drink.

    It might be that in some weird way smoking helps prevent contracting it, but it seems rather counter-intuitive, that people knackering their lungs every day might be better off.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    ydoethur said:

    It would be incredibly sad to see the governments of Venezuela, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Russia and Kazakhstan be plunged into turmoil.

    Heart of stone...
    You forgot to mention how bad it would be for the Scottish economy if they were aver cast adrift.
  • King Cole, indeed, but there's a huge yawning chasm between the two extremes.

    I’m fortunate that my kids are just like me, everything they do is brilliant, so all the praise they get is justified.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,297
    IanB2 said:

    Actually, no.

    In early Feb - contrary to what you have since repeatedly tried to claim (cf last night’s thread), you were predicting that the virus would be relatively “benign”. (your quote)

    Yes, back at that time you were certainly advocating that we just endure the pain. Your advice to the elderly and vulnerable, as I recall, was that they should be give some heroin and be told to fuck off and die.

    In late Feb, you certainly changed your tune, flipping to apocalyptic predictions that, so far at least, look completely ludicrous. We aren’t ever going to see your two million dead Brits even if we have to endure multiple waves of this virus.

    The one thing you haven’t predicted is the mid path of dangerous but not massively deadly path that we seem to be following.

    The one point on which we can agree is that people who have never managed or run anything during their career are the very last people on whom we should rely for any sort of sensible advice.
    You missed the bit where Eadric predicted that between 10% and 25% of people would die of Covid-19 - a lot more than 2 million in Britain!

    Eadric complains that people didn't listen to Eadric, but never wonders why Eadric was not convincing - could it be something to do with the ridiculous style and over-the-top "predictions"?

    Meanwhile, this kind of attention-seeking behaviour unfortunately tends to drown out the far more realistic and convincing warnings given by others.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,137
    felix said:

    You forgot to mention how bad it would be for the Scottish economy if they were aver cast adrift.
    I think we'll be fine with the sovereign wealth fund built up by the wise stewardship of the UK.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,132
    I thought this story sounded erhh interesting...

    "Dear Matt Hancock - this is my daughter - who I put to bed tonight sobbing and begging me not work in A&E - her words broke me,"

    Actually, the reality is I've been going to work for weeks in a crap plastic pinny and a basic surgical mask.

    https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-a-e-nurse-unable-to-reassure-sobbing-daughter-without-lying-about-ppe-11975205

    Kate Sheehan, a local Labour Party Vice Chair whose viral tweet attacking the Government over a lack of Personal Protective Equipment was very widely reported, appears to have given PPE equipment away the day before she complained. She was thanked for “donating mask, visors and aprons” to local volunteers, while containers full of more equipment had arrived at her hospital.

    https://order-order.com/2020/04/20/nurse-celebrated-boris-admitted-icu-gave-away-ppe-shortage-complaint/
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,550
    edited April 2020

    There was definitely a Chinese study that found this and was put up on a pre-print server. But I believe a lot of these rely on people being asked if they are a smoker. Its a bit like asking people if they drink.

    It might be that in some weird way smoking helps prevent contracting it, but it seems rather counter-intuitive, that people knackering their lungs every day might be better off.
    And if smokers truly were much less likely to get it, I imagine it would not be widely publicized.

    But stop! - this is how conspiracy theories spread. And I HATE conspiracy theories. Even if there is one, I do not want to hear about it.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,419
    kinabalu said:

    That's verging on child abuse IMO, if you do that.
    Fortunately my parents had different attitudes to my achievements. Such as they were.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976

    Catastrophe wanking.

    But that's two words.
    Catasturbation?
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,297

    There was definitely a Chinese study that found this and was put up on a pre-print server. But I believe a lot of these rely on people being asked if they are a smoker. Its a bit like asking people if they drink.

    It might be that in some weird way smoking helps prevent contracting it, but it seems rather counter-intuitive, that people knackering their lungs every day might be better off.
    or more likely that smoking makes it more likely that you don't notice that you are ill
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,132
    kamski said:

    or more likely that smoking makes it more likely that you don't notice that you are ill
    And / or, you don't want to admit for fear you don't get the same treatment as others.

    Although, in China, that would mean you are less likely to get your organs harvested.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,132
    Sweden records just 40 new coronavirus deaths and less than 400 fresh cases in one day as the country continues to avoid lockdown

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8237015/Sweden-records-just-40-new-coronavirus-deaths-latest-figures.html
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,124

    I think we'll be fine with the sovereign wealth fund built up by the wise stewardship of the UK.
    I was just thinking that I don't want any ballistic turnips incoming from Ayrshire. It might be considered a breach of lockdown.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,132
    Got to chuckle at the Daily Mail top headline - "Did we jump too soon?"

    Where as a couple of days ago, it was all about did we go too late....
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,550
    edited April 2020

    Can cigarette smoke carry the virus? Cigarette smoke doesn't obey the 2 metre rule...
    It did strike me that smoking outside might be bad news because you could be transferring the virus from your fingers onto the tip of the fag before lighting up.

    There is no easy way to smoke a cigarette without using both your fingers and your mouth. It's an unusual activity in this regard.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,165

    Got to chuckle at the Daily Mail top headline - "Did we jump too soon?"

    Where as a couple of days ago, it was all about did we go too late....

    As some of us have been saying on here since the 'We Must Be Locked Down Now" brigade started.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,132

    As some of us have been saying on here since the 'We Must Be Locked Down Now" brigade started.
    If Sweden, nor Germany, do turn out to be the "gold standard" in balancing CV deaths against tanking your economy, I imagine we won't hear the end of why didn't we follow them.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,347

    Got to chuckle at the Daily Mail top headline - "Did we jump too soon?"

    Where as a couple of days ago, it was all about did we go too late....

    Seamless as well.
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,375
    What are peoples views on why much of Africa has been spared a major outbreak?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,550

    Sweden records just 40 new coronavirus deaths and less than 400 fresh cases in one day as the country continues to avoid lockdown

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8237015/Sweden-records-just-40-new-coronavirus-deaths-latest-figures.html

    So are the rest of us turnips?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,970
    edited April 2020
    kamski said:

    You missed the bit where Eadric predicted that between 10% and 25% of people would die of Covid-19 - a lot more than 2 million in Britain!

    Eadric complains that people didn't listen to Eadric, but never wonders why Eadric was not convincing - could it be something to do with the ridiculous style and over-the-top "predictions"?

    Meanwhile, this kind of attention-seeking behaviour unfortunately tends to drown out the far more realistic and convincing warnings given by others.
    Sadly, it is hard to avoid the conclusion that he is simply full of s**t.

    He has both claimed to have had the virus and regaled us all with the extraordinary lengths he has gone to, to avoid catching it.

    He has predicted every extreme option from storm in a teacup to global Armageddon, never coming anywhere near the actual course of events, yet repeatedly claims to be some sort of Nostradamus, mostly by selecting random predictions from his stream and knocking a month or more off the date that it was posted, hoping none of us are alert enough to notice.

    He regularly lambasts others for not following government advice despite being the only PB’er to admit openly that he hasn’t stayed at home.

    He’s gone from advocating an earlier Chinese style lockdown to commending a Swedish style open approach, in just a couple of weeks.

    He even spent yesterday morning trying to call out others for posts that might be considered offensive.

    And he did kick off by suggesting we tell our old folks to just f**k off and die.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,132
    edited April 2020
    kinabalu said:

    So are the rest of us turnips?
    Nobody is going to know the answer to this for years. I think the fact that Swedes are on the whole appear to be very keen to follow rules is certainly in their favour when it comes to allowing an element of flexibility in their restrictions on normal life. My understanding is that although places like restaurants are open, there are quite clear rules, and very few are not observing it.

    We tried the please be sensible, and what we got was people going on the lash as the pub is having a sneaky lock in and they didn't tell me I couldn't go on a 300 miles round trip as part of my daily exercise.

    Also, things like much less high population density and I believe things like far fewer "house sharing" and multi-generational homes certainly is again to their advantage. It is really quite easy to buy your own home in Sweden, as the government schemes will put equity in it with you. The big downside is trying to sell it.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,347
    kinabalu said:

    So are the rest of us turnips?
    It is interesting how more have not come to the conclusions Sweden has. It does provide some cover to governments and their scientific advisers.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,421
    kinabalu said:

    It did strike me that smoking outside might be bad news because you could be transferring the virus from your fingers onto the tip of the fag before lighting up.

    There is no easy way to smoke a cigarette without using both your fingers and your mouth. It's an unusual activity in this regard.
    Smoke goes inside your lungs and then back out again, along with respiratory droplets?
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,240

    Sweden records just 40 new coronavirus deaths and less than 400 fresh cases in one day as the country continues to avoid lockdown

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8237015/Sweden-records-just-40-new-coronavirus-deaths-latest-figures.html

    Without making any comment on whether or not the Swedish policy is the right one - because I simply don't know, unfortunately that low number is just a repeat of what we have seen every weekend recently from both Sweden and other countries. Last Monday the equivalent number was 15 - again because of the weekend effect. It is meaningless when trying to assess how well or badly the Swedes re doing.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,419
    Two pieces of good news today; went for a walk past the local asparagus farm and they've JUST started harvesting. So we bought a couple of bundles and left the money in the honesty box. Didn't actually have to speak to anyone.
    And our blue-tit's nest, in our nest box, appears to have six eggs in it.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,396
    Mr. kle4, we've always been at war with Eastasia.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,225
    kinabalu said:

    So are the rest of us turnips?
    Sweden is the experiment that us epidemiologists would love to do, but know we wouldn't get ethical approval for (nor even apply for it, on ethical grounds).

    Some caveats
    - how much testing are they doing?
    - how exactly are deaths defined? (hospital only, I think and are those who died routinely getting tests)
    - how does overall all cause mortality look? (don't think we have regular data)
    and finally
    - how much has behaviour in Sweden changed anyway, even in the absence of an enforced lockdown?

    It may turn out that Sweden got this right (balancing the immediate health costs against long-term economic costs and related health costs/deaths) but we won't know that for quite some time. Even if Sweden's internal economy is relatively unscathed, they'll presumably be fairly damaged by the economic effects in other countries anyway.
This discussion has been closed.