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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » David Cowling examines Cobyn’s claim that LAB would have won G
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » David Cowling examines Cobyn’s claim that LAB would have won GE2017 if it hadn’t been for PLP “coup” move the year before
The fact that Jeremy Corbyn was elected Labour Leader despite the majority of the party’s MPs voting against him, was certainly a problem throughout his tenure. However, it seems we have a new twist to the saga: Mr Corbyn now appears to believe this was the principal reason why Labour failed to win the 2017 election – a victory that he was otherwise “absolutely confident” that Labour would have won “because it was all absolutely going our way”. What does the evidence suggest?
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Thanks Mr Cowling.
If Starmer screws up Richard Burgon is waiting in the wings.
Remember oppositions don’t win general elections, governments lose them.
If Johnson messes up the response Covid-19 we could see PM Burgon.
The 'Stab in the back' myth will not be overturned, unfortunately, by this kind of rational argument. The Cult will go to their graves knowing Jezza did win in 2017.
is generally an article of faith among the politically comic
May's ill-starred decision to call an election was predicated on Labour's division and weakness - had it been fairly even in early 2017, May wouldn't have called it (she nearly didn't as it was).
SDLP
Falklands War
Plenty of excuses there...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Axis_powers_negotiations_on_the_division_of_Asia
https://twitter.com/richardburgon/status/1252168331618123776?s=21
And thats it. The coup made Corbyn unpopular which led to an election which he'd have won had there not been a coup which created the conditions for an election. What Corbyn foamers need to explain is how Corbyn would have won the 2019 election or perhaps would even now be promoting himself with some tossey self-aggrandising videos of him as PM in waiting banging his pans for the NHS waiting for a 2020 General Election which has been Stolen from Him by Evil Tories too scared to hold it.
Spike in not-explicitly-covid excess deaths.
England haven't beaten Scotland by 4 or more since 1975.
Ah, I see what you mean about England underperforming since then.
And really the UK government need a proper plan to deal with airport arrivals. We can't just keep letting people through unchecked as we start to emerge from lockdown.
The odd thing is that people come out with this kind of thing and then whine when they are described as morons!
It made it very easy to just say we are shut.
And of course add into that, very low population density.
That is two massive advantages that basically no other country on earth has.
But facts won’t matter to the Corbynistas. The “betrayal” narrative has already been set up and will be carefully nurtured over the years and brought out when convenient, like an Irish grievance.
England 14.400 out of a 56m population ie 257 per million
Wales 185 out of a 3.1m population ie 185 per million
Scotland 903 out of a 5.5m population ie 164 per million
NI 102 1.9M 102 PER Million
The UK, US and France have all briefed their media they think the actual rate was somewhere between 10x and 40x the official figures.
You think it should be 550%, apparently.
Edited extra bit: on the plus side, this does somewhat answer the question I had a week or so ago about how anti-vaxxers are doing.
Still batshit insane, it seems.
OK - surely they are yellow-skinned and slitty-eyed. No argument about that.
I think a lot of people think NZ / Australia is kinda of Britain / Ireland but just a bit further.
Were you away the week you should have done arithmetic at school?
However, I think Australia is probably a bigger success story. They are very well connected to Asia, and initially they had a significant number of imported cases from Asia and Europe. And although overall, population density is low, it certainly isn't in the major cities.
Does also make me wonder if warmer climate might help slow the spread.
They’re not a strategic UK asset, they’re 49% owned by Delta in the USA and 51% owned by Virgin Group based in the British Virgin Islands.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/04/19/ease-now-economy-turns-rubble/
1) it isn't deaths per million in the UK. Deaths outside hospitals or not confirmed as involving Covid-19 in hospital are excluded. The actual rate may be understated by as much as 50%.
2) different countries are also measuring different things.
So you're comparing apples with oranges and the apple count is not a particularly meaningful number.
But I do wonder what people like you think about this virus, if they think the Chinese numbers can't be believed.
The fatality rate based on the numbers from Western Europe is 10% or more. I don't think anyone believes that, otherwise people would be in a state of distraction, and hiding under their beds. The numbers from China suggest 0.5-1%. As far as I know those are the best data we have.
But if you dismiss those numbers, what do you believe, and on what basis? I really wonder.
The twitter figure was for deaths per million, not the case fatality rate as you claimed. On top of that you say that 3 missing a couple of zeros is 300%.
3 missing no zeros is 300%. And then you have the temerity to suggest that kle4 was absent for the "one week" that he should have been learning arithmetic.
The deaths per Nation are
14,399 England Deaths per million 257
893 Scotland 162
575 Wales 185
193 NI 102
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Nick Timothy and his boss thought even if they ran the shittest campaign on record they’d still get a decent majority.
Especially to people who had previously pointed out how extremely draconian the Chinese containment measures were.
If so nationalise it. I'd look to British Airways rather than Virgin though for that.
It might be that all this don't touch your deliveries for x hours is total nonsense. It might be that you need to be further than 2m away, so all those people going jogging thinking they are ok because they are a fair distance away aren't safe at all.
It's a weird one and no mistake, Holmes.
Indeed, given the lockdown it seems likely that perhaps understates Covid-19's virulence - I suspect that many types of accidental death are well down on usual.
I appreciate everyone likes daily figures because they give a lot more to talk about, but aside from giving some idea of the trajectory, the numbers themselves seem close to useless to me.
I don't know whether you understand, but it's not possible for the fatality rate to be larger than 100%, because that would mean the disease had killed more people than it had infected!
If you can't follow these basic calculations, you should considering just shutting up.
By 2019 May had gone, Boris ran a more populist campaign, Leavers deserted Labour for the Tories after Corbyn failed to support Brexit and some Remainers switched from Labour to the LDs after Corbyn refused to commit hard enough to stop Brexit