This is just as bad as that other case of the Labour Councillor. Assuming Guido's story is correct, she should be sacked by the NHS and thrown out of the Labour Party.
I've no idea if any of the MSM ran with this story but if so they should run very prominent retractions.
Can't say I'm too surprised by Labour activists in the NHS making it up,
Cant say i am surprised Tory posters think stories about PPE shortages are made up.
Unfortunately for you guys NHS Providers the NHS Confederation and the Government seem to admit some Trusts are critically low on gowns.
The bloke who reckons she is lying looks like a political activist too if you read his tweets and retweets.
This is just as bad as that other case of the Labour Councillor. Assuming Guido's story is correct, she should be sacked by the NHS and thrown out of the Labour Party.
I've no idea if any of the MSM ran with this story but if so they should run very prominent retractions.
Can't say I'm too surprised by Labour activists in the NHS making it up,
Cant say i am surprised Tory posters think stories about PPE shortages are made up.
Unfortunately for you guys NHS Providers the NHS Confederation and the Government seem to admit some Trusts are critically low on gowns.
The bloke who reckons she is lying looks like a political activist too if you read his tweets and retweets.
And as for Guido
Her post about Johnson is disgusting
Considering Matt Hancock is freely admitting that supplies of key elements are in critically short supply, perhaps we need to consider if he is a deep mole Labouf activist.
This is just as bad as that other case of the Labour Councillor. Assuming Guido's story is correct, she should be sacked by the NHS and thrown out of the Labour Party.
I've no idea if any of the MSM ran with this story but if so they should run very prominent retractions.
Can't say I'm too surprised by Labour activists in the NHS making it up,
Cant say i am surprised Tory posters think stories about PPE shortages are made up.
Unfortunately for you guys NHS Providers the NHS Confederation and the Government seem to admit some Trusts are critically low on gowns.
The bloke who reckons she is lying looks like a political activist too if you read his tweets and retweets.
And as for Guido
Her post about Johnson is disgusting
Considering Matt Hancock is freely admitting that supplies of key elements are in critically short supply, perhaps we need to consider if he is a deep mole Labouf activist.
Notwithstanding the general point about the negotiations and transition extension, it wouldn’t be surprising if negotiations might actually be going easier (at this stage) because nobody has any interest in public grandstanding.
Nobody has to win. They just not have to lose.
I hope they succeed
Someone said a poll shows two thirds wanting an extension
How would a poll look if the following questions were asked and are very relevant:
Are you prepared to pay the EU billions to extend the transistion
Are you prepared to become involved in bailing out EU countries post covid
Are you prepared to allow the EU, backed by the ECJ, to inhibit how we deal with the financial repercussions of covid 19
The billions are committed by the "oven ready deal" whipped through Parliament without much scrutiny are they not?
We are not in the EZ so exempt from Coronabonds.
In what way is the ECJ currently interfering with the governments plans? Why would that be different next year?
Not that it matters to me, as I am quite OK with No Deal Brexit, but it would be quite a whack to parts of the economy.
Alistair Darling who attended the emergency bailout meeting in 2010, whilst the Tories & Lib Dems were still in coalition talks, also thought that as we were not in EZ we would not be required to support the bailout. But then an obscure clause from the Lisbon agreement was found & the UK was required to give £13 billion.in support.
I am just an oldy - he is not on my radar I am afraid
He's a painter who was on TV in the 80s and early 90s
Bob Ross is hugely popular in Americaland. I expect some BBC4 Oxbridge-educated intern discovered him on Reddit which, to be fair, is how I heard about him.
Notwithstanding the general point about the negotiations and transition extension, it wouldn’t be surprising if negotiations might actually be going easier (at this stage) because nobody has any interest in public grandstanding.
Nobody has to win. They just not have to lose.
I hope they succeed
Someone said a poll shows two thirds wanting an extension
How would a poll look if the following questions were asked and are very relevant:
Are you prepared to pay the EU billions to extend the transistion
Are you prepared to become involved in bailing out EU countries post covid
Are you prepared to allow the EU, backed by the ECJ, to inhibit how we deal with the financial repercussions of covid 19
The billions are committed by the "oven ready deal" whipped through Parliament without much scrutiny are they not?
We are not in the EZ so exempt from Coronabonds.
In what way is the ECJ currently interfering with the governments plans? Why would that be different next year?
Not that it matters to me, as I am quite OK with No Deal Brexit, but it would be quite a whack to parts of the economy.
Alistair Darling who attended the emergency bailout meeting in 2010, whilst the Tories & Lib Dems were still in coalition talks, also thought that as we were not in EZ we would not be required to support the bailout. But then an obscure clause from the Lisbon agreement was found & the UK was required to give £13 billion.in support.
Plenty of time to clarify that before the June deadline.
Not that I am bothered by No Deal. My job is not at risk, indeed I expect to be very much in demand for the next year or two.
Things easing up at my Trust a little now, with more ICU capacity.
Trying to get more of the non-covid19 stuff in, but patients very reluctant. Like the airlines, we have loads of capacity but little demand.
I'm curious, is it possible at most hospitals to run basically 2 separate/distanced hospitals within the same building for covid and non-covid patients?
Things easing up at my Trust a little now, with more ICU capacity.
Trying to get more of the non-covid19 stuff in, but patients very reluctant. Like the airlines, we have loads of capacity but little demand.
I'm curious, is it possible at most hospitals to run basically 2 separate/distanced hospitals within the same building for covid and non-covid patients?
We do already in Leicester, but the non covid19 patients won't come (apart from an uptick in gardening and DIY injuries according to my colleagues in ED).
This is just as bad as that other case of the Labour Councillor. Assuming Guido's story is correct, she should be sacked by the NHS and thrown out of the Labour Party.
I've no idea if any of the MSM ran with this story but if so they should run very prominent retractions.
Can't say I'm too surprised by Labour activists in the NHS making it up,
Cant say i am surprised Tory posters think stories about PPE shortages are made up.
Unfortunately for you guys NHS Providers the NHS Confederation and the Government seem to admit some Trusts are critically low on gowns.
The bloke who reckons she is lying looks like a political activist too if you read his tweets and retweets.
And as for Guido
Her post about Johnson is disgusting
Considering Matt Hancock is freely admitting that supplies of key elements are in critically short supply, perhaps we need to consider if he is a deep mole Labouf activist.
WTI oil May contract trading at $4 a barrell yes $4 a barrell.
Let's hear what the Donald has to say about that
And Sturgeon, at the time of the 2014 referendum the oil price was around $100 & the numbers still didn't add up.
There has been an interesting decoupling between WTI and Brent prices over the last few months. There was always a premium on Brent crude but they generally kept the same difference between them. Right now WTI futures are trading at $1.40 a barrel whilst Brent crude is trading at $26.35. Not sure why this decoupling has occurred.
This is just as bad as that other case of the Labour Councillor. Assuming Guido's story is correct, she should be sacked by the NHS and thrown out of the Labour Party.
I've no idea if any of the MSM ran with this story but if so they should run very prominent retractions.
Can't say I'm too surprised by Labour activists in the NHS making it up,
Cant say i am surprised Tory posters think stories about PPE shortages are made up.
Unfortunately for you guys NHS Providers the NHS Confederation and the Government seem to admit some Trusts are critically low on gowns.
The bloke who reckons she is lying looks like a political activist too if you read his tweets and retweets.
And as for Guido
Her post about Johnson is disgusting
I think everyone, regardless of affiliation, recognises there is a problem with PPE. It's quite depressing though when you get trolls like her whose sole aim is to make the government look bad.
I am just an oldy - he is not on my radar I am afraid
He's a painter who was on TV in the 80s and early 90s
Bob Ross is hugely popular in Americaland. I expect some BBC4 Oxbridge-educated intern discovered him on Reddit which, to be fair, is how I heard about him.
His entire back catalogue is available for free on YouTube - I’ve been watching it to destress for years.
Crude Oil is now hovering around $10 a barrel. I am no expert in this field, but this feels as if it could have some significant implications. Anyone want to advance any informed opinions on what?
Short term not much, medium term Russia fucked, long term middle East fucked.
WTI oil May contract trading at $4 a barrell yes $4 a barrell.
Let's hear what the Donald has to say about that
And Sturgeon, at the time of the 2014 referendum the oil price was around $100 & the numbers still didn't add up.
There has been an interesting decoupling between WTI and Brent prices over the last few months. There was always a premium on Brent crude but they generally kept the same difference between them. Right now WTI futures are trading at $1.40 a barrel whilst Brent crude is trading at $26.35. Not sure why this decoupling has occurred.
Differential in shutdown costs and oil companies being willing to take short term losses in order to avoid shutting down.
Crude Oil is now hovering around $10 a barrel. I am no expert in this field, but this feels as if it could have some significant implications. Anyone want to advance any informed opinions on what?
Short term not much, medium term Russia fucked, long term middle East fucked.
Doesn't do much for the oil companies either - any term
Crude Oil is now hovering around $10 a barrel. I am no expert in this field, but this feels as if it could have some significant implications. Anyone want to advance any informed opinions on what?
Great news for anyone who consumes the stuff, including motorists, aviation and heating oil. Bad news for anyone who produces oil (except for the Saudis), specifically Russia and the USA for whom the new price is way below their marginal cost of production.
Why not bad for the Saudis?
The Saudis reckon their marginal cost of extraction is something silly like $2.80, against c.$30 for Russia and c.$50 for the USA shale. So prices in the single figures completely screw Russia and the USA.
The games started when Russia refused to cut production in response to drop in demand from China, preferring to see the price fall to around $50, to try and take out the US shale supply. Saudi responded by *increasing* production, with the intent of taking out Russian supply, which is what we now see playing out.
Looks like the price could even now go negative as physical storage starts to run out. That’ll be fun! A great opportunity for everyone to top up strategic national reserves, if they can actually store the stuff.
Literally is there any way for a retail investor to buy oil without having to actually own an oil refinery or storage tank or whatever?
A proxy investment makes more sense.
Yes, that's exactly what I have in mind. I imagine there isn't or surely everyone would be doing it right now and the price wouldn't be basically zero, but is there?
Crude Oil is now hovering around $10 a barrel. I am no expert in this field, but this feels as if it could have some significant implications. Anyone want to advance any informed opinions on what?
Short term not much, medium term Russia fucked, long term middle East fucked.
Good!
Its in our geostrategic interest to move away from oil and to renewables to ensure that is a permanent transition in geopolitics.
Crude Oil is now hovering around $10 a barrel. I am no expert in this field, but this feels as if it could have some significant implications. Anyone want to advance any informed opinions on what?
Great news for anyone who consumes the stuff, including motorists, aviation and heating oil. Bad news for anyone who produces oil (except for the Saudis), specifically Russia and the USA for whom the new price is way below their marginal cost of production.
Why not bad for the Saudis?
The Saudis reckon their marginal cost of extraction is something silly like $2.80, against c.$30 for Russia and c.$50 for the USA shale. So prices in the single figures completely screw Russia and the USA.
The games started when Russia refused to cut production in response to drop in demand from China, preferring to see the price fall to around $50, to try and take out the US shale supply. Saudi responded by *increasing* production, with the intent of taking out Russian supply, which is what we now see playing out.
Looks like the price could even now go negative as physical storage starts to run out. That’ll be fun! A great opportunity for everyone to top up strategic national reserves, if they can actually store the stuff.
I don't think the Saudis "need" to pump oil save to the extent it serves their trillions invested in the West.
Crude Oil is now hovering around $10 a barrel. I am no expert in this field, but this feels as if it could have some significant implications. Anyone want to advance any informed opinions on what?
Short term not much, medium term Russia fucked, long term middle East fucked.
And independence for Scotland too if it continues will be economically unviable
Crude Oil is now hovering around $10 a barrel. I am no expert in this field, but this feels as if it could have some significant implications. Anyone want to advance any informed opinions on what?
Short term not much, medium term Russia fucked, long term middle East fucked.
Doesn't do much for the oil companies either - any term
Crude Oil is now hovering around $10 a barrel. I am no expert in this field, but this feels as if it could have some significant implications. Anyone want to advance any informed opinions on what?
Short term not much, medium term Russia fucked, long term middle East fucked.
Doesn't do much for the oil companies either - any term
Crude Oil is now hovering around $10 a barrel. I am no expert in this field, but this feels as if it could have some significant implications. Anyone want to advance any informed opinions on what?
Short term not much, medium term Russia fucked, long term middle East fucked.
Doesn't do much for the oil companies either - any term
As far as Middle East is concerned this could be the one positive outcome from this horrible situation. A world that does not excuse the actions of a medieval state simply because they have oil is a better one.
Literally is there any way for a retail investor to buy oil without having to actually own an oil refinery or storage tank or whatever?
A proxy investment makes more sense.
Yes, that's exactly what I have in mind. I imagine there isn't or surely everyone would be doing it right now and the price wouldn't be basically zero, but is there?
Apologies, I overstepped the mark. No investment advice from me.
Literally is there any way for a retail investor to buy oil without having to actually own an oil refinery or storage tank or whatever?
A proxy investment makes more sense.
Yes, that's exactly what I have in mind. I imagine there isn't or surely everyone would be doing it right now and the price wouldn't be basically zero, but is there?
The price that’s zero is for physical WTI oil delivered in May. June WTI deliveries and Brent oil are still both over $20.
I'm getting the sense the tide is turning. The public may sense this too as there's definitely more traffic on the main road outside my house today.
Watch the pressure build for a phased relaxation over the next few days.
These people are going to destroy all the hard work that's been done. All because they are too wilful to stop their normal routine. Do they not realise that if we slacken off then we have to do it all over again?
Crude Oil is now hovering around $10 a barrel. I am no expert in this field, but this feels as if it could have some significant implications. Anyone want to advance any informed opinions on what?
Great news for anyone who consumes the stuff, including motorists, aviation and heating oil. Bad news for anyone who produces oil (except for the Saudis), specifically Russia and the USA for whom the new price is way below their marginal cost of production.
Why not bad for the Saudis?
The Saudis reckon their marginal cost of extraction is something silly like $2.80, against c.$30 for Russia and c.$50 for the USA shale. So prices in the single figures completely screw Russia and the USA.
The games started when Russia refused to cut production in response to drop in demand from China, preferring to see the price fall to around $50, to try and take out the US shale supply. Saudi responded by *increasing* production, with the intent of taking out Russian supply, which is what we now see playing out.
Looks like the price could even now go negative as physical storage starts to run out. That’ll be fun! A great opportunity for everyone to top up strategic national reserves, if they can actually store the stuff.
I don't think the Saudis "need" to pump oil save to the extent it serves their trillions invested in the West.
Not at all, it’s base politics at this point - MBS just wants Putin to have to come and kiss his feet.
Notwithstanding the general point about the negotiations and transition extension, it wouldn’t be surprising if negotiations might actually be going easier (at this stage) because nobody has any interest in public grandstanding.
Nobody has to win. They just not have to lose.
I hope they succeed
Someone said a poll shows two thirds wanting an extension
How would a poll look if the following questions were asked and are very relevant:
Are you prepared to pay the EU billions to extend the transistion
Are you prepared to become involved in bailing out EU countries post covid
Are you prepared to allow the EU, backed by the ECJ, to inhibit how we deal with the financial repercussions of covid 19
The billions are committed by the "oven ready deal" whipped through Parliament without much scrutiny are they not?
We are not in the EZ so exempt from Coronabonds.
In what way is the ECJ currently interfering with the governments plans? Why would that be different next year?
Not that it matters to me, as I am quite OK with No Deal Brexit, but it would be quite a whack to parts of the economy.
We have a Deal, the Withdrawal Agreement, the fact we might end the transition period before a FTA is agreed with the EU is not the same thing
This is just as bad as that other case of the Labour Councillor. Assuming Guido's story is correct, she should be sacked by the NHS and thrown out of the Labour Party.
I've no idea if any of the MSM ran with this story but if so they should run very prominent retractions.
Can't say I'm too surprised by Labour activists in the NHS making it up,
Cant say i am surprised Tory posters think stories about PPE shortages are made up.
Unfortunately for you guys NHS Providers the NHS Confederation and the Government seem to admit some Trusts are critically low on gowns.
The bloke who reckons she is lying looks like a political activist too if you read his tweets and retweets.
And as for Guido
Her post about Johnson is disgusting
Considering Matt Hancock is freely admitting that supplies of key elements are in critically short supply, perhaps we need to consider if he is a deep mole Labouf activist.
Or being honest
Well quite
Nobody is claiming that PPE supply is not tight, but a Labour activist deliberately lying about it for political reasons is just disgusting as is her post about Johnson. Is she the only one?
I'm getting the sense the tide is turning. The public may sense this too as there's definitely more traffic on the main road outside my house today.
Watch the pressure build for a phased relaxation over the next few days.
These people are going to destroy all the hard work that's been done. All because they are too wilful to stop their normal routine. Do they not realise that if we slacken off then we have to do it all over again?
They will also be the first to blame the government...
How are the politics and economics of this going to play out over the next 12-24 months?
The demand-side collapse is unprecedented - some on here have talked about 20% unemployment which would mean 6.25 million out of work and a consequent strain on welfare.
Oil price falls will mean cheaper fuel which will offset some of the inflationary pressures but the question is less how deep the hole will be but how much we will climb out once life returns to whatever the new normal looks like.
Percentages aren't much helped - if GDP is 100 and falls to 70 and recovers to 90 that's a 30% drop followed by a 28% rise so you'd be forgiven for thinking everything was back to normal - we are still 10 points down.
It's not just a question of getting back to 100 but to where we would have been if there had been no virus.
The public finances will be shattered - we were already going to borrow around £50 billion in 19/20 but presumably that will be exceeded and the 20/21 number will be £150 billion perhaps?
How will that be brought back down? Tax rises look inevitable as does a major new round of spending cuts (from which the NHS will be protected but Defence and the Police probably won't).
As none of us (even OGH) were around during the last similar downturn in the early 18th century, we don't really know what's going to happen. As with all these things, some people will be hurt very badly, others hardly at all. I suppose a lot will depend on whether QE for the entire economy is maintained as long as QE was for the financial sector.
I'm getting the sense the tide is turning. The public may sense this too as there's definitely more traffic on the main road outside my house today.
Watch the pressure build for a phased relaxation over the next few days.
These people are going to destroy all the hard work that's been done. All because they are too wilful to stop their normal routine. Do they not realise that if we slacken off then we have to do it all over again?
They will also be the first to blame the government...
The media are also to blame, they are reporting places like NZ and Denmark easing lockdowns but they have done things which we haven't gone anywhere near and this is not being mentioned.
I'm afraid I see it as the British disease, wanting the reward without being arsed to put in the effort.
Crude Oil is now hovering around $10 a barrel. I am no expert in this field, but this feels as if it could have some significant implications. Anyone want to advance any informed opinions on what?
Short term not much, medium term Russia fucked, long term middle East fucked.
But Yemen is probably thankful that Saudi and Iran won't have the money to carry on their proxy wars any longer.
On No Deal if deal means extension point. Fishermen, the ultimate Brexit icon, are absolutely desperate right now because their markets (mostly in the EU) have dried up due to coronavirus. I wonder if the prospect of that situation becoming permanent because of Brexit No Deal will concentrate minds a bit.
On No Deal if deal means extension point. Fishermen, the ultimate Brexit icon, are absolutely desperate right now because their markets (mostly in the EU) have dried up due to coronavirus. I wonder if the prospect of that situation becoming permanent because of Brexit No Deal will concentrate minds a bit.
It is not No Deal, the Withdrawal Agreement was the Deal and has passed.
It is not correct to say ending the transition period before a FTA has been agreed with the EU is No Deal
Crude Oil is now hovering around $10 a barrel. I am no expert in this field, but this feels as if it could have some significant implications. Anyone want to advance any informed opinions on what?
Short term not much, medium term Russia fucked, long term middle East fucked.
And independence for Scotland too if it continues will be economically unviable
I'm shocked that you thought independence for Scotland was economically viable up to this point. You concealed it marvellously well.
On No Deal if deal means extension point. Fishermen, the ultimate Brexit icon, are absolutely desperate right now because their markets (mostly in the EU) have dried up due to coronavirus. I wonder if the prospect of that situation becoming permanent because of Brexit No Deal will concentrate minds a bit.
It is not No Deal, the Withdrawal Agreement was the Deal and has passed.
It is not correct to say ending the transition period before a FTA has been agreed with the EU is No Deal
Of course it’s correct. No deal is no deal, regardless of whether its before or after the transition period.
We have a Deal, the Withdrawal Agreement, the fact we might end the transition period before a FTA is agreed with the EU is not the same thing
The question for me is whether free trade itself will survive coronavirus or will countries become more insular and consequentially more protectionist?
The Conservatives have form when it comes to protectionism and it's tempting to wave the flag and argue for self-sufficiency and less reliance on imports but free trade benefits us all.
I'd like to think a deal can be achieved and if that requires a 3-6 month extension I don't see the issue - under the circumstances there would be plenty of understanding around the need for some extra time to get the best deal.
Unless of course the intention was always to walk away without an FTA on 31/12/20 but we were expressly told by Johnson it wasn't.
Crude Oil is now hovering around $10 a barrel. I am no expert in this field, but this feels as if it could have some significant implications. Anyone want to advance any informed opinions on what?
Short term not much, medium term Russia fucked, long term middle East fucked.
But Yemen is probably thankful that Saudi and Iran won't have the money to carry on their proxy wars any longer.
I'm sure the Saudis will find something under the mattress for the important stuff of pounding dirt poor Yemenis into the ground.
Crude Oil is now hovering around $10 a barrel. I am no expert in this field, but this feels as if it could have some significant implications. Anyone want to advance any informed opinions on what?
Short term not much, medium term Russia fucked, long term middle East fucked.
And independence for Scotland too if it continues will be economically unviable
On No Deal if deal means extension point. Fishermen, the ultimate Brexit icon, are absolutely desperate right now because their markets (mostly in the EU) have dried up due to coronavirus. I wonder if the prospect of that situation becoming permanent because of Brexit No Deal will concentrate minds a bit.
It is not No Deal, the Withdrawal Agreement was the Deal and has passed.
It is not correct to say ending the transition period before a FTA has been agreed with the EU is No Deal
If fishermen want to sell their fish into the EU without large tariffs and lengthy customs checks that impact freshness, they need the UK to negotiate that access, however long it takes. If they don't get that deal they are screwed, basically.
On No Deal if deal means extension point. Fishermen, the ultimate Brexit icon, are absolutely desperate right now because their markets (mostly in the EU) have dried up due to coronavirus. I wonder if the prospect of that situation becoming permanent because of Brexit No Deal will concentrate minds a bit.
It is not No Deal, the Withdrawal Agreement was the Deal and has passed.
It is not correct to say ending the transition period before a FTA has been agreed with the EU is No Deal
Of course it’s correct. No deal is no deal, regardless of whether its before or after the transition period.
Wrong, No Deal would have meant a hard border with the Republic of Ireland, no guarantee for citizens' rights and the EU refusing to even start FTA talks with us or grant a transition period
Crude Oil is now hovering around $10 a barrel. I am no expert in this field, but this feels as if it could have some significant implications. Anyone want to advance any informed opinions on what?
Short term not much, medium term Russia fucked, long term middle East fucked.
But Yemen is probably thankful that Saudi and Iran won't have the money to carry on their proxy wars any longer.
Thankfully there’s been something of a ceasefire in recent weeks, as everyone got sick.
I don’t think the Saudis prioritise Iran and Yemen much right now - not when they’ve got Vladimir Putin by the short and curlies!
We have a Deal, the Withdrawal Agreement, the fact we might end the transition period before a FTA is agreed with the EU is not the same thing
The question for me is whether free trade itself will survive coronavirus or will countries become more insular and consequentially more protectionist?
The Conservatives have form when it comes to protectionism and it's tempting to wave the flag and argue for self-sufficiency and less reliance on imports but free trade benefits us all.
I'd like to think a deal can be achieved and if that requires a 3-6 month extension I don't see the issue - under the circumstances there would be plenty of understanding around the need for some extra time to get the best deal.
Unless of course the intention was always to walk away without an FTA on 31/12/20 but we were expressly told by Johnson it wasn't.
I could live with a 6 month extension but no longer
Crude Oil is now hovering around $10 a barrel. I am no expert in this field, but this feels as if it could have some significant implications. Anyone want to advance any informed opinions on what?
Short term not much, medium term Russia fucked, long term middle East fucked.
But Yemen is probably thankful that Saudi and Iran won't have the money to carry on their proxy wars any longer.
I'm sure the Saudis will find something under the mattress for the important stuff of pounding dirt poor Yemenis into the ground.
Their London property portflio should see to that...
On No Deal if deal means extension point. Fishermen, the ultimate Brexit icon, are absolutely desperate right now because their markets (mostly in the EU) have dried up due to coronavirus. I wonder if the prospect of that situation becoming permanent because of Brexit No Deal will concentrate minds a bit.
It is not No Deal, the Withdrawal Agreement was the Deal and has passed.
It is not correct to say ending the transition period before a FTA has been agreed with the EU is No Deal
Of course it’s correct. No deal is no deal, regardless of whether its before or after the transition period.
Wrong, No Deal would have meant a hard border with the Republic of Ireland, no guarantee for citizens' rights and the EU refusing to even start FTA talks with us or grant a transition period
Crude Oil is now hovering around $10 a barrel. I am no expert in this field, but this feels as if it could have some significant implications. Anyone want to advance any informed opinions on what?
Short term not much, medium term Russia fucked, long term middle East fucked.
But Yemen is probably thankful that Saudi and Iran won't have the money to carry on their proxy wars any longer.
Thankfully there’s been something of a ceasefire in recent weeks, as everyone got sick.
I don’t think the Saudis prioritise Iran and Yemen much right now - not when they’ve got Vladimir Putin by the short and curlies!
That would explain why we haven't seen Vladimir in public recently....
I've got it! Pubs are shut and have no use for all the barrels of beer in the basement. Replace them with barrels of oil and the resulting profit can keep the businesses afloat once the lockdown ends.
Comments
Unfortunately for you guys NHS Providers the NHS Confederation and the Government seem to admit some Trusts are critically low on gowns.
The bloke who reckons she is lying looks like a political activist too if you read his tweets and retweets.
And as for Guido
Her post about Johnson is disgusting
https://www.bloomberg.com/energy
That wind is fearsome.
Watch the pressure build for a phased relaxation over the next few days.
Trying to get more of the non-covid19 stuff in, but patients very reluctant. Like the airlines, we have loads of capacity but little demand.
Alistair Darling who attended the emergency bailout meeting in 2010, whilst the Tories & Lib Dems were still in coalition talks, also thought that as we were not in EZ we would not be required to support the bailout. But then an obscure clause from the Lisbon agreement was found & the UK was required to give £13 billion.in support.
Not that I am bothered by No Deal. My job is not at risk, indeed I expect to be very much in demand for the next year or two.
Low demand among the allowed groups
Less than 50% of capacity used yesterday.
Singapore’s largest oil trader just went bust, amid allegations of accounting fraud, too.
It's quite depressing though when you get trolls like her whose sole aim is to make the government look bad.
The games started when Russia refused to cut production in response to drop in demand from China, preferring to see the price fall to around $50, to try and take out the US shale supply. Saudi responded by *increasing* production, with the intent of taking out Russian supply, which is what we now see playing out.
Looks like the price could even now go negative as physical storage starts to run out. That’ll be fun! A great opportunity for everyone to top up strategic national reserves, if they can actually store the stuff.
Is zero going to be a floor?
EDIT: no!
https://twitter.com/igsquawk/status/1252295281674240004?s=21
Its in our geostrategic interest to move away from oil and to renewables to ensure that is a permanent transition in geopolitics.
Nobody is claiming that PPE supply is not tight, but a Labour activist deliberately lying about it for political reasons is just disgusting as is her post about Johnson. Is she the only one?
It's like asking people to fly in planes with no wings.
How are the politics and economics of this going to play out over the next 12-24 months?
The demand-side collapse is unprecedented - some on here have talked about 20% unemployment which would mean 6.25 million out of work and a consequent strain on welfare.
Oil price falls will mean cheaper fuel which will offset some of the inflationary pressures but the question is less how deep the hole will be but how much we will climb out once life returns to whatever the new normal looks like.
Percentages aren't much helped - if GDP is 100 and falls to 70 and recovers to 90 that's a 30% drop followed by a 28% rise so you'd be forgiven for thinking everything was back to normal - we are still 10 points down.
It's not just a question of getting back to 100 but to where we would have been if there had been no virus.
The public finances will be shattered - we were already going to borrow around £50 billion in 19/20 but presumably that will be exceeded and the 20/21 number will be £150 billion perhaps?
How will that be brought back down? Tax rises look inevitable as does a major new round of spending cuts (from which the NHS will be protected but Defence and the Police probably won't).
As none of us (even OGH) were around during the last similar downturn in the early 18th century, we don't really know what's going to happen. As with all these things, some people will be hurt very badly, others hardly at all. I suppose a lot will depend on whether QE for the entire economy is maintained as long as QE was for the financial sector.
Am I right?
https://marketmonetarist.com/2020/04/20/one-factor-explains-most-of-the-differences-in-covid19-deaths-across-countries/
https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2020/04/angela-merkel-germany-coronavirus-pandemic/610225/
I'm afraid I see it as the British disease, wanting the reward without being arsed to put in the effort.
EDIT: I see this point has already been made.
It is not correct to say ending the transition period before a FTA has been agreed with the EU is No Deal
The Conservatives have form when it comes to protectionism and it's tempting to wave the flag and argue for self-sufficiency and less reliance on imports but free trade benefits us all.
I'd like to think a deal can be achieved and if that requires a 3-6 month extension I don't see the issue - under the circumstances there would be plenty of understanding around the need for some extra time to get the best deal.
Unless of course the intention was always to walk away without an FTA on 31/12/20 but we were expressly told by Johnson it wasn't.
A retail physical barrel of physical oil will cost considerably more than the indicated price.
The whole problem is as a result of the world running out of empty barrels.
Jeez, if oil is worthless than what producer is safe? Exxon borrowed USD9.5bn in the bond market last week.
Me neither!
I don’t think the Saudis prioritise Iran and Yemen much right now - not when they’ve got Vladimir Putin by the short and curlies!
Domino's fans 'outraged' as chain drops the Hawaiian pizza from its new simplified menu
No more pineapple pizzas for a while…
https://www.entertainmentdaily.co.uk/lifestyle/dominos-fans-outraged-as-chain-drops-the-hawaiian-pizza-from-its-new-simplified-menu/
https://youtu.be/tJCPhoI2Vno
I'm a business genius...
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8237475/Chinese-doctors-critically-ill-COVID-19-wake-darkened-skin.html
Not only have they nearly died from CV, they will wait up to find they will now be banned from most places because of their skin colour.