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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » David Cowling examines Cobyn’s claim that LAB would have won G

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited April 2020 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » David Cowling examines Cobyn’s claim that LAB would have won GE2017 if it hadn’t been for PLP “coup” move the year before

The fact that Jeremy Corbyn was elected Labour Leader despite the majority of the party’s MPs voting against him, was certainly a problem throughout his tenure. However, it seems we have a new twist to the saga: Mr Corbyn now appears to believe this was the principal reason why Labour failed to win the 2017 election – a victory that he was otherwise “absolutely confident” that Labour would have won “because it was all absolutely going our way”. What does the evidence suggest?

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 99,293
    edited April 2020
    First.

    Thanks Mr Cowling.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 40,904
    Thanks for the thread but who cares what the delusional old bat thinks anymore? Even Labour are going to airbrush the embarrassment of his leadership from their collective memory as fast as possible.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 56,564
    Thanks for the header, David!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 99,293
    edited April 2020
    DavidL said:

    Thanks for the thread but who cares what the delusional old bat thinks anymore? Even Labour are going to airbrush the embarrassment of his leadership from their collective memory as fast as possible.

    The Corbynites haven’t gone away you know.

    If Starmer screws up Richard Burgon is waiting in the wings.

    Remember oppositions don’t win general elections, governments lose them.

    If Johnson messes up the response Covid-19 we could see PM Burgon.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 70,000
    I expect Corbyn would argue labour would have won every GE if only people had listened to him/Tony Benn.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 70,000
    DavidL said:

    Thanks for the thread but who cares what the delusional old bat thinks anymore? Even Labour are going to airbrush the embarrassment of his leadership from their collective memory as fast as possible.

    He's a party grandee now, still popular to boot.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 46,148
    Thanks to David Cowling for the header. Useful information, although not surprising.

    The 'Stab in the back' myth will not be overturned, unfortunately, by this kind of rational argument. The Cult will go to their graves knowing Jezza did win in 2017.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 40,904

    DavidL said:

    Thanks for the thread but who cares what the delusional old bat thinks anymore? Even Labour are going to airbrush the embarrassment of his leadership from their collective memory as fast as possible.

    The Corbynites haven’t gone away you know.

    If Starmer screws up Richard Burgon is waiting in the wings.

    Remember oppositions don’t win general elections, governments lose them.
    ANd how many votes did Burgon get? Too many obviously but he is hardly a threat. And Momentum did poorly in the National Executive elections as well didn't they? I think that they are a spent force.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 46,148
    kle4 said:

    I expect Corbyn would argue labour would have won every GE if only people had listened to him/Tony Benn.

    Well, Labour did win handsomely in 1983 after all.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 21,801
    kle4 said:

    I expect Corbyn would argue labour would have won every GE if only people had listened to him/Tony Benn.

    kle4 said:

    I expect Corbyn would argue labour would have won every GE if only people had listened to him/Tony Benn.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/False_consciousness

    is generally an article of faith among the politically comic
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 46,148

    DavidL said:

    Thanks for the thread but who cares what the delusional old bat thinks anymore? Even Labour are going to airbrush the embarrassment of his leadership from their collective memory as fast as possible.

    The Corbynites haven’t gone away you know.

    If Starmer screws up Richard Burgon is waiting in the wings.

    Remember oppositions don’t win general elections, governments lose them.

    If Johnson messes up the response Covid-19 we could see PM Burgon.
    Only if Pidcock can't find a safe seat by then.
  • It's all a bit of a ludicrous counterfactual. But an additional point is that, if Corbyn was correct that Labour's standing just before the 2017 election was called would have been higher but for the coup (and David is pretty convincing on why that's a dubious claim) this would in itself have made an election less likely.

    May's ill-starred decision to call an election was predicated on Labour's division and weakness - had it been fairly even in early 2017, May wouldn't have called it (she nearly didn't as it was).
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 21,801

    kle4 said:

    I expect Corbyn would argue labour would have won every GE if only people had listened to him/Tony Benn.

    Well, Labour did win handsomely in 1983 after all.
    Stab in the back
    SDLP
    Falklands War

    Plenty of excuses there...
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 39,061
    FPT

    Cyclefree said:

    ydoethur said:

    FF43 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Alistair said:

    Nigelb said:

    Blimey, a Telegraph article I am in 100% agreement with.
    And on topic, too.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/britain-can-avoid-second-peak-covid-19-restart-economy/
    ... The challenge for the Prime Minister is how to tread this middle path between lockdown and normalcy; how to make the number his epidemiologists give him work for Britain PLC.

    There are a number of prerequisites, the most important of which is getting a nationwide network of test and trace teams in place in order that new cases can be quickly detected and isolated.

    It’s a good idea to get people who volunteered as NHS helpers to do this, but perhaps managed by someone from Sandhurst rather than PHE.

    Concise public communications is also going to be vital. Telling everyone to stay put is one thing, a more nuanced message quite another.

    But this is not the same as treating us like fools....

    At least its ahowing a lot more sense than the Daily Jackboot.
    What the fuck is the "Daily Jackboot"? And what kind of twat uses that term?
    Hurrah for the Blackshirts
    It has always intrigued me that the Daily Mail is never allowed to forget its brief flirtation with Mosley while nobody ever mentions that the Daily Mirror was far more enthusiastic about them for far longer.
    Maybe it's the suspicion that the DM would still be supporting the black shirts if they were around now?
    The Daily Mirror supported Corbyn *innocent face*
    Or the Guardian having as one of its main columnists a man who supported Stalin. The tolerance of those who supported or excused the crimes of Communism is both baffling and morally repellent.
    It is possible to abhor both regimes.

    And not to excuse Stalin’s crimes one bit, I do wonder if without the iron grip he had on the USSR they would have been able, albeit after a disastrous 1941, to eventually beat Nazi Germany. Would it have been worse to see Stalin defeated with Hitler dominating Europe? Hitler would’ve then gone for the Middle East and into India, given half a chance. He wanted global domination, not just Eastern Europe.

    I obviously don’t know the answers, it’s just an interesting ’what if?...’
    Nah, the Japanese would have taken most of British India, leaving what is today Pakistan to the Germans:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Axis_powers_negotiations_on_the_division_of_Asia

    image
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 39,061

    kle4 said:

    I expect Corbyn would argue labour would have won every GE if only people had listened to him/Tony Benn.

    Well, Labour did win handsomely in 1983 after all.
    "Just a flesh wound!" :lol:
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 11,446
    I am actually rather sympathetic to Jezza on this one. A 36 seat gain looks good until you think back to the epic dismalness of May's campaign, and then it looks like an underperformance, like only beating Scotland 5-1 at footie, and the underperformance requires an explanation. As to the Nobody likes Jezza anyway claim, look how the tory attack youtube video which I kept embarrassingly linking to, bombed that time round.
  • isamisam Posts: 38,638

    DavidL said:

    Thanks for the thread but who cares what the delusional old bat thinks anymore? Even Labour are going to airbrush the embarrassment of his leadership from their collective memory as fast as possible.

    The Corbynites haven’t gone away you know.

    If Starmer screws up Richard Burgon is waiting in the wings.

    Remember oppositions don’t win general elections, governments lose them.

    If Johnson messes up the response Covid-19 we could see PM Burgon.

    https://twitter.com/richardburgon/status/1252168331618123776?s=21
  • RobDRobD Posts: 56,564
    isam said:

    DavidL said:

    Thanks for the thread but who cares what the delusional old bat thinks anymore? Even Labour are going to airbrush the embarrassment of his leadership from their collective memory as fast as possible.

    The Corbynites haven’t gone away you know.

    If Starmer screws up Richard Burgon is waiting in the wings.

    Remember oppositions don’t win general elections, governments lose them.

    If Johnson messes up the response Covid-19 we could see PM Burgon.

    https://twitter.com/richardburgon/status/1252168331618123776?s=21
    Is that cherry-picking?
  • felixfelix Posts: 13,817

    DavidL said:

    Thanks for the thread but who cares what the delusional old bat thinks anymore? Even Labour are going to airbrush the embarrassment of his leadership from their collective memory as fast as possible.

    The Corbynites haven’t gone away you know.

    If Starmer screws up Richard Burgon is waiting in the wings.

    Remember oppositions don’t win general elections, governments lose them.

    If Johnson messes up the response Covid-19 we could see PM Burgon.
    Only if Pidcock can't find a safe seat by then.
    On current polling there are not that many NE seats Labour would actually win. I cannot quite believe I wrote that sentence!!! :smiley:
  • This one is very very simple. May called an election because she was 20% ahead in the polls - because of the Chicken Coup if thats your poison. Without a Chicken Coup she may have been ahead in the polls by a much smaller amount which means there would have been no 2017 election for Corbyn to win.

    And thats it. The coup made Corbyn unpopular which led to an election which he'd have won had there not been a coup which created the conditions for an election. What Corbyn foamers need to explain is how Corbyn would have won the 2019 election or perhaps would even now be promoting himself with some tossey self-aggrandising videos of him as PM in waiting banging his pans for the NHS waiting for a 2020 General Election which has been Stolen from Him by Evil Tories too scared to hold it.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900


    If Johnson messes up the response Covid-19 we could see PM Burgon.

    My long-held Burgon/Grayling party leadership prediction is coming to pass.

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,136
    isam said:

    DavidL said:

    Thanks for the thread but who cares what the delusional old bat thinks anymore? Even Labour are going to airbrush the embarrassment of his leadership from their collective memory as fast as possible.

    The Corbynites haven’t gone away you know.

    If Starmer screws up Richard Burgon is waiting in the wings.

    Remember oppositions don’t win general elections, governments lose them.

    If Johnson messes up the response Covid-19 we could see PM Burgon.

    twitter.com/richardburgon/status/1252168331618123776?s=21
    Putting aside the cherry picking. Quite surprised how well Portugal are doing, given it is quite a poor nation and borders Spain, which has been very badly hit.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 11,446
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 40,904
    RobD said:

    isam said:

    DavidL said:

    Thanks for the thread but who cares what the delusional old bat thinks anymore? Even Labour are going to airbrush the embarrassment of his leadership from their collective memory as fast as possible.

    The Corbynites haven’t gone away you know.

    If Starmer screws up Richard Burgon is waiting in the wings.

    Remember oppositions don’t win general elections, governments lose them.

    If Johnson messes up the response Covid-19 we could see PM Burgon.

    https://twitter.com/richardburgon/status/1252168331618123776?s=21
    Is that cherry-picking?
    Its pig ignorant (with suitable apologies to pigs who are apparently quite intelligent).
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 30,762
    IshmaelZ said:

    I am actually rather sympathetic to Jezza on this one. A 36 seat gain looks good until you think back to the epic dismalness of May's campaign, and then it looks like an underperformance, like only beating Scotland 5-1 at footie, and the underperformance requires an explanation. As to the Nobody likes Jezza anyway claim, look how the tory attack youtube video which I kept embarrassingly linking to, bombed that time round.

    Oi!
    England haven't beaten Scotland by 4 or more since 1975.

    Ah, I see what you mean about England underperforming since then.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,136
    eadric said:

    isam said:

    DavidL said:

    Thanks for the thread but who cares what the delusional old bat thinks anymore? Even Labour are going to airbrush the embarrassment of his leadership from their collective memory as fast as possible.

    The Corbynites haven’t gone away you know.

    If Starmer screws up Richard Burgon is waiting in the wings.

    Remember oppositions don’t win general elections, governments lose them.

    If Johnson messes up the response Covid-19 we could see PM Burgon.

    https://twitter.com/richardburgon/status/1252168331618123776?s=21
    "China - 3"

    Rrrright
    Missing a couple of zeros there at least.
  • isamisam Posts: 38,638
    RobD said:

    isam said:

    DavidL said:

    Thanks for the thread but who cares what the delusional old bat thinks anymore? Even Labour are going to airbrush the embarrassment of his leadership from their collective memory as fast as possible.

    The Corbynites haven’t gone away you know.

    If Starmer screws up Richard Burgon is waiting in the wings.

    Remember oppositions don’t win general elections, governments lose them.

    If Johnson messes up the response Covid-19 we could see PM Burgon.

    https://twitter.com/richardburgon/status/1252168331618123776?s=21
    Is that cherry-picking?
    Just slightly!
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 11,446
    eadric said:

    it's quite depressing to think we have another year of this kinda news, at the very least.

    Weirdly, they have just paid me 400 euros compensation for a 5 hour flight delay last summer. Seems generous at a time when I would probably pay 400 eur for the opportunity to mooch around Oslo airport for 5 hours.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 7,713
    eadric said:

    isam said:

    DavidL said:

    Thanks for the thread but who cares what the delusional old bat thinks anymore? Even Labour are going to airbrush the embarrassment of his leadership from their collective memory as fast as possible.

    The Corbynites haven’t gone away you know.

    If Starmer screws up Richard Burgon is waiting in the wings.

    Remember oppositions don’t win general elections, governments lose them.

    If Johnson messes up the response Covid-19 we could see PM Burgon.

    https://twitter.com/richardburgon/status/1252168331618123776?s=21
    "China - 3"

    Rrrright
    They are yellow and slanty-eyed. And so on.
  • isamisam Posts: 38,638

    isam said:

    DavidL said:

    Thanks for the thread but who cares what the delusional old bat thinks anymore? Even Labour are going to airbrush the embarrassment of his leadership from their collective memory as fast as possible.

    The Corbynites haven’t gone away you know.

    If Starmer screws up Richard Burgon is waiting in the wings.

    Remember oppositions don’t win general elections, governments lose them.

    If Johnson messes up the response Covid-19 we could see PM Burgon.

    twitter.com/richardburgon/status/1252168331618123776?s=21
    Putting aside the cherry picking. Quite surprised how well Portugal are doing, given it is quite a poor nation and borders Spain, which has been very badly hit.
    Yes. Our July holiday there not completely out of the question?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,136
    edited April 2020
    isam said:

    isam said:

    DavidL said:

    Thanks for the thread but who cares what the delusional old bat thinks anymore? Even Labour are going to airbrush the embarrassment of his leadership from their collective memory as fast as possible.

    The Corbynites haven’t gone away you know.

    If Starmer screws up Richard Burgon is waiting in the wings.

    Remember oppositions don’t win general elections, governments lose them.

    If Johnson messes up the response Covid-19 we could see PM Burgon.

    twitter.com/richardburgon/status/1252168331618123776?s=21
    Putting aside the cherry picking. Quite surprised how well Portugal are doing, given it is quite a poor nation and borders Spain, which has been very badly hit.
    Yes. Our July holiday there not completely out of the question?
    Nah...Nobody is going anywhere this summer. Unless there is a real time test for CV, no country, however much they depend on tourism will want to take the risk.

    And really the UK government need a proper plan to deal with airport arrivals. We can't just keep letting people through unchecked as we start to emerge from lockdown.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 7,713

    eadric said:

    isam said:

    DavidL said:

    Thanks for the thread but who cares what the delusional old bat thinks anymore? Even Labour are going to airbrush the embarrassment of his leadership from their collective memory as fast as possible.

    The Corbynites haven’t gone away you know.

    If Starmer screws up Richard Burgon is waiting in the wings.

    Remember oppositions don’t win general elections, governments lose them.

    If Johnson messes up the response Covid-19 we could see PM Burgon.

    https://twitter.com/richardburgon/status/1252168331618123776?s=21
    "China - 3"

    Rrrright
    Missing a couple of zeros there at least.
    So you reckon the case fatality rate in China was 300%?

    The odd thing is that people come out with this kind of thing and then whine when they are described as morons!
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 8,152
    isam said:

    DavidL said:

    Thanks for the thread but who cares what the delusional old bat thinks anymore? Even Labour are going to airbrush the embarrassment of his leadership from their collective memory as fast as possible.

    The Corbynites haven’t gone away you know.

    If Starmer screws up Richard Burgon is waiting in the wings.

    Remember oppositions don’t win general elections, governments lose them.

    If Johnson messes up the response Covid-19 we could see PM Burgon.

    https://twitter.com/richardburgon/status/1252168331618123776?s=21
    WTF are New Zealand doing that's working?
  • kamskikamski Posts: 2,282
    eadric said:

    it's quite depressing to think we have another year of this kinda news, at the very least.

    less flying surely quite good news
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 40,904

    It's all a bit of a ludicrous counterfactual. But an additional point is that, if Corbyn was correct that Labour's standing just before the 2017 election was called would have been higher but for the coup (and David is pretty convincing on why that's a dubious claim) this would in itself have made an election less likely.

    May's ill-starred decision to call an election was predicated on Labour's division and weakness - had it been fairly even in early 2017, May wouldn't have called it (she nearly didn't as it was).</blockquote

    You might just have found a positive contribution that Corbyn made to our public life: it accelerated the end of May. There's always something if you look hard enough, isn't there?

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,136
    edited April 2020
    Dura_Ace said:

    isam said:

    DavidL said:

    Thanks for the thread but who cares what the delusional old bat thinks anymore? Even Labour are going to airbrush the embarrassment of his leadership from their collective memory as fast as possible.

    The Corbynites haven’t gone away you know.

    If Starmer screws up Richard Burgon is waiting in the wings.

    Remember oppositions don’t win general elections, governments lose them.

    If Johnson messes up the response Covid-19 we could see PM Burgon.

    https://twitter.com/richardburgon/status/1252168331618123776?s=21
    WTF are New Zealand doing that's working?
    Being 1500 miles from the closest other nation and only basically one way in, and there are very limited reasons why people will arrive in NZ e.g. they are going there to transfer as an international hub.

    It made it very easy to just say we are shut.

    And of course add into that, very low population density.

    That is two massive advantages that basically no other country on earth has.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 70,000
    Dura_Ace said:

    isam said:

    DavidL said:

    Thanks for the thread but who cares what the delusional old bat thinks anymore? Even Labour are going to airbrush the embarrassment of his leadership from their collective memory as fast as possible.

    The Corbynites haven’t gone away you know.

    If Starmer screws up Richard Burgon is waiting in the wings.

    Remember oppositions don’t win general elections, governments lose them.

    If Johnson messes up the response Covid-19 we could see PM Burgon.

    https://twitter.com/richardburgon/status/1252168331618123776?s=21
    WTF are New Zealand doing that's working?
    Act early and be a long way from anywhere?
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 21,190
    edited April 2020
    Interesting article, thank you.

    But facts won’t matter to the Corbynistas. The “betrayal” narrative has already been set up and will be carefully nurtured over the years and brought out when convenient, like an Irish grievance.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 17,888
    edited April 2020
    eadric said:

    isam said:

    DavidL said:

    Thanks for the thread but who cares what the delusional old bat thinks anymore? Even Labour are going to airbrush the embarrassment of his leadership from their collective memory as fast as possible.

    The Corbynites haven’t gone away you know.

    If Starmer screws up Richard Burgon is waiting in the wings.

    Remember oppositions don’t win general elections, governments lose them.

    If Johnson messes up the response Covid-19 we could see PM Burgon.

    https://twitter.com/richardburgon/status/1252168331618123776?s=21
    "China - 3"

    Rrrright
    That UK figure split by Nation was as at yesterday noon

    England 14.400 out of a 56m population ie 257 per million
    Wales 185 out of a 3.1m population ie 185 per million
    Scotland 903 out of a 5.5m population ie 164 per million
    NI 102 1.9M 102 PER Million
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,136
    edited April 2020
    Chris said:

    eadric said:

    isam said:

    DavidL said:

    Thanks for the thread but who cares what the delusional old bat thinks anymore? Even Labour are going to airbrush the embarrassment of his leadership from their collective memory as fast as possible.

    The Corbynites haven’t gone away you know.

    If Starmer screws up Richard Burgon is waiting in the wings.

    Remember oppositions don’t win general elections, governments lose them.

    If Johnson messes up the response Covid-19 we could see PM Burgon.

    https://twitter.com/richardburgon/status/1252168331618123776?s=21
    "China - 3"

    Rrrright
    Missing a couple of zeros there at least.
    So you reckon the case fatality rate in China was 300%?

    The odd thing is that people come out with this kind of thing and then whine when they are described as morons!
    I was partly joking, but what are you talking about? not 300%, 300 per million i.e. just a bit higher than the UK.

    The UK, US and France have all briefed their media they think the actual rate was somewhere between 10x and 40x the official figures.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 52,612
    eadric said:

    it's quite depressing to think we have another year of this kinda news, at the very least.

    Guernsey government reckoning travel restriction will continue throughout 2020
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 35,763
    South African Airways and Virgin Australia are also in serious trouble, talk of administration today for both of these. Airline industry not surprisingly on its knees.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 40,904
    Chris said:

    eadric said:

    isam said:

    DavidL said:

    Thanks for the thread but who cares what the delusional old bat thinks anymore? Even Labour are going to airbrush the embarrassment of his leadership from their collective memory as fast as possible.

    The Corbynites haven’t gone away you know.

    If Starmer screws up Richard Burgon is waiting in the wings.

    Remember oppositions don’t win general elections, governments lose them.

    If Johnson messes up the response Covid-19 we could see PM Burgon.

    https://twitter.com/richardburgon/status/1252168331618123776?s=21
    "China - 3"

    Rrrright
    Missing a couple of zeros there at least.
    So you reckon the case fatality rate in China was 300%?

    The odd thing is that people come out with this kind of thing and then whine when they are described as morons!
    No, adding a couple of zeroes would have the Chinese fatality rate at 300 per million. Which is quite conservative, actually. You should be a little more careful with accusations of being moronic.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 4,123
    RobD said:

    isam said:

    DavidL said:

    Thanks for the thread but who cares what the delusional old bat thinks anymore? Even Labour are going to airbrush the embarrassment of his leadership from their collective memory as fast as possible.

    The Corbynites haven’t gone away you know.

    If Starmer screws up Richard Burgon is waiting in the wings.

    Remember oppositions don’t win general elections, governments lose them.

    If Johnson messes up the response Covid-19 we could see PM Burgon.

    https://twitter.com/richardburgon/status/1252168331618123776?s=21
    Is that cherry-picking?
    Most definately. Worldometers currently has six countries with worse deaths/population than the UK but two of them are Microstates so should really be disregarded. There are then 4 countries between the UK and Ireland.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 7,713

    Chris said:

    eadric said:

    isam said:

    DavidL said:

    Thanks for the thread but who cares what the delusional old bat thinks anymore? Even Labour are going to airbrush the embarrassment of his leadership from their collective memory as fast as possible.

    The Corbynites haven’t gone away you know.

    If Starmer screws up Richard Burgon is waiting in the wings.

    Remember oppositions don’t win general elections, governments lose them.

    If Johnson messes up the response Covid-19 we could see PM Burgon.

    https://twitter.com/richardburgon/status/1252168331618123776?s=21
    "China - 3"

    Rrrright
    Missing a couple of zeros there at least.
    So you reckon the case fatality rate in China was 300%?

    The odd thing is that people come out with this kind of thing and then whine when they are described as morons!
    I was partly joking, but what are you talking about? not 300%, 300 per million i.e. just a bit higher than the UK.
    My apologies. The official fatality rate in China is now 5.5%.

    You think it should be 550%, apparently.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 56,564
    edited April 2020
    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    eadric said:

    isam said:

    DavidL said:

    Thanks for the thread but who cares what the delusional old bat thinks anymore? Even Labour are going to airbrush the embarrassment of his leadership from their collective memory as fast as possible.

    The Corbynites haven’t gone away you know.

    If Starmer screws up Richard Burgon is waiting in the wings.

    Remember oppositions don’t win general elections, governments lose them.

    If Johnson messes up the response Covid-19 we could see PM Burgon.

    https://twitter.com/richardburgon/status/1252168331618123776?s=21
    "China - 3"

    Rrrright
    Missing a couple of zeros there at least.
    So you reckon the case fatality rate in China was 300%?

    The odd thing is that people come out with this kind of thing and then whine when they are described as morons!
    I was partly joking, but what are you talking about? not 300%, 300 per million i.e. just a bit higher than the UK.
    My apologies. The official fatality rate in China is now 5.5%.

    You think it should be 550%, apparently.
    The underestimation surely applies to cases and deaths? I mean they just upped their death rate by a suspiciously precise 50% a few days ago...
  • isamisam Posts: 38,638
    Sandpit said:

    South African Airways and Virgin Australia are also in serious trouble, talk of administration today for both of these. Airline industry not surprisingly on its knees.
    https://twitter.com/bbcnews/status/1252187021990334464?s=21
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 70,000
    edited April 2020
    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    eadric said:

    isam said:

    DavidL said:

    Thanks for the thread but who cares what the delusional old bat thinks anymore? Even Labour are going to airbrush the embarrassment of his leadership from their collective memory as fast as possible.

    The Corbynites haven’t gone away you know.

    If Starmer screws up Richard Burgon is waiting in the wings.

    Remember oppositions don’t win general elections, governments lose them.

    If Johnson messes up the response Covid-19 we could see PM Burgon.

    https://twitter.com/richardburgon/status/1252168331618123776?s=21
    "China - 3"

    Rrrright
    Missing a couple of zeros there at least.
    So you reckon the case fatality rate in China was 300%?

    The odd thing is that people come out with this kind of thing and then whine when they are described as morons!
    I was partly joking, but what are you talking about? not 300%, 300 per million i.e. just a bit higher than the UK.
    My apologies. The official fatality rate in China is now 5.5%.

    You think it should be 550%, apparently.
    You've doubled down on this, that's hilarious! He said nothing of the kind, and missing that once was funny, but twice?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 39,061

    Dura_Ace said:

    isam said:

    DavidL said:

    Thanks for the thread but who cares what the delusional old bat thinks anymore? Even Labour are going to airbrush the embarrassment of his leadership from their collective memory as fast as possible.

    The Corbynites haven’t gone away you know.

    If Starmer screws up Richard Burgon is waiting in the wings.

    Remember oppositions don’t win general elections, governments lose them.

    If Johnson messes up the response Covid-19 we could see PM Burgon.

    https://twitter.com/richardburgon/status/1252168331618123776?s=21
    WTF are New Zealand doing that's working?
    Being 1500 miles from the closest other nation and only basically one way in, and there are very limited reasons why people will arrive in NZ e.g. they are going there to transfer as an international hub.

    It made it very easy to just say we are shut.

    And of course add into that, very low population density.

    That is two massive advantages that basically no other country on earth has.
    Isn't Easter Island the most isolated populated island in the world?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 57,690
    edited April 2020
    I see Novak Djokovic has decided to come out as a moron.

    Edited extra bit: on the plus side, this does somewhat answer the question I had a week or so ago about how anti-vaxxers are doing.

    Still batshit insane, it seems.
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 2,435

    Dura_Ace said:

    isam said:

    DavidL said:

    Thanks for the thread but who cares what the delusional old bat thinks anymore? Even Labour are going to airbrush the embarrassment of his leadership from their collective memory as fast as possible.

    The Corbynites haven’t gone away you know.

    If Starmer screws up Richard Burgon is waiting in the wings.

    Remember oppositions don’t win general elections, governments lose them.

    If Johnson messes up the response Covid-19 we could see PM Burgon.

    https://twitter.com/richardburgon/status/1252168331618123776?s=21
    WTF are New Zealand doing that's working?
    Being 1500 miles from the closest other nation and only basically one way in, and there are very limited reasons why people will arrive in NZ e.g. they are going there to transfer as an international hub.

    It made it very easy to just say we are shut.

    And of course add into that, very low population density.

    That is two massive advantages that basically no other country on earth has.
    You really need to travel to New Zealand to realise how far it is from anywhere else.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 7,713
    RobD said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    eadric said:

    isam said:

    DavidL said:

    Thanks for the thread but who cares what the delusional old bat thinks anymore? Even Labour are going to airbrush the embarrassment of his leadership from their collective memory as fast as possible.

    The Corbynites haven’t gone away you know.

    If Starmer screws up Richard Burgon is waiting in the wings.

    Remember oppositions don’t win general elections, governments lose them.

    If Johnson messes up the response Covid-19 we could see PM Burgon.

    https://twitter.com/richardburgon/status/1252168331618123776?s=21
    "China - 3"

    Rrrright
    Missing a couple of zeros there at least.
    So you reckon the case fatality rate in China was 300%?

    The odd thing is that people come out with this kind of thing and then whine when they are described as morons!
    I was partly joking, but what are you talking about? not 300%, 300 per million i.e. just a bit higher than the UK.
    My apologies. The official fatality rate in China is now 5.5%.

    You think it should be 550%, apparently.
    The underestimation surely applies to cases and deaths? I mean they just upped their death rate by a suspiciously precise 50% a few days ago...
    "Surely". An odd thing to say, as no evidence is ever provided for any of this innuendo.

    OK - surely they are yellow-skinned and slitty-eyed. No argument about that.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 21,175
    In case anyone thinks Labour would have won in 2019 or 2020 without an election in 2017, it’s worth remembering that Corbyn and McDonnell were calling and preparing for an election in 2017.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 40,904

    Dura_Ace said:

    isam said:

    DavidL said:

    Thanks for the thread but who cares what the delusional old bat thinks anymore? Even Labour are going to airbrush the embarrassment of his leadership from their collective memory as fast as possible.

    The Corbynites haven’t gone away you know.

    If Starmer screws up Richard Burgon is waiting in the wings.

    Remember oppositions don’t win general elections, governments lose them.

    If Johnson messes up the response Covid-19 we could see PM Burgon.

    https://twitter.com/richardburgon/status/1252168331618123776?s=21
    WTF are New Zealand doing that's working?
    Being 1500 miles from the closest other nation and only basically one way in, and there are very limited reasons why people will arrive in NZ e.g. they are going there to transfer as an international hub.

    It made it very easy to just say we are shut.

    And of course add into that, very low population density.

    That is two massive advantages that basically no other country on earth has.
    You mean we wouldn't have achieved that if we had only done more testing?? Are you sure?
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,620
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Thanks for the thread but who cares what the delusional old bat thinks anymore? Even Labour are going to airbrush the embarrassment of his leadership from their collective memory as fast as possible.

    The Corbynites haven’t gone away you know.

    If Starmer screws up Richard Burgon is waiting in the wings.

    Remember oppositions don’t win general elections, governments lose them.
    ANd how many votes did Burgon get? Too many obviously but he is hardly a threat. And Momentum did poorly in the National Executive elections as well didn't they? I think that they are a spent force.
    They will continue to be a very noisy one for quite some time. Unless Starmer finds the balls to ban Momentum.
  • isamisam Posts: 38,638

    isam said:

    isam said:

    DavidL said:

    Thanks for the thread but who cares what the delusional old bat thinks anymore? Even Labour are going to airbrush the embarrassment of his leadership from their collective memory as fast as possible.

    The Corbynites haven’t gone away you know.

    If Starmer screws up Richard Burgon is waiting in the wings.

    Remember oppositions don’t win general elections, governments lose them.

    If Johnson messes up the response Covid-19 we could see PM Burgon.

    twitter.com/richardburgon/status/1252168331618123776?s=21
    Putting aside the cherry picking. Quite surprised how well Portugal are doing, given it is quite a poor nation and borders Spain, which has been very badly hit.
    Yes. Our July holiday there not completely out of the question?
    Nah...Nobody is going anywhere this summer. Unless there is a real time test for CV, no country, however much they depend on tourism will want to take the risk.

    And really the UK government need a proper plan to deal with airport arrivals. We can't just keep letting people through unchecked as we start to emerge from lockdown.
    Hotels and airlines offering credit vouchers... these have got to be terrible value as you are in at the cheap pre lockdown rate and the flight/accommodation rates post lockdown will be far higher.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,136

    Dura_Ace said:

    isam said:

    DavidL said:

    Thanks for the thread but who cares what the delusional old bat thinks anymore? Even Labour are going to airbrush the embarrassment of his leadership from their collective memory as fast as possible.

    The Corbynites haven’t gone away you know.

    If Starmer screws up Richard Burgon is waiting in the wings.

    Remember oppositions don’t win general elections, governments lose them.

    If Johnson messes up the response Covid-19 we could see PM Burgon.

    https://twitter.com/richardburgon/status/1252168331618123776?s=21
    WTF are New Zealand doing that's working?
    Being 1500 miles from the closest other nation and only basically one way in, and there are very limited reasons why people will arrive in NZ e.g. they are going there to transfer as an international hub.

    It made it very easy to just say we are shut.

    And of course add into that, very low population density.

    That is two massive advantages that basically no other country on earth has.
    You really need to travel to New Zealand to realise how far it is from anywhere else.
    I have close friends from there, who live in Australia. When they come to visit and have people round and they regularly say, so do you pop back to NZ regularly then? And the look on their face as if what are you talking about...well it's not far is it...

    I think a lot of people think NZ / Australia is kinda of Britain / Ireland but just a bit further.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 26,408
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Thanks for the thread but who cares what the delusional old bat thinks anymore? Even Labour are going to airbrush the embarrassment of his leadership from their collective memory as fast as possible.

    The Corbynites haven’t gone away you know.

    If Starmer screws up Richard Burgon is waiting in the wings.

    Remember oppositions don’t win general elections, governments lose them.
    ANd how many votes did Burgon get? Too many obviously but he is hardly a threat. And Momentum did poorly in the National Executive elections as well didn't they? I think that they are a spent force.
    I agree. We might try and win from the Left again - I personally hope so - but it will not be anything resembling the Corbyn offering.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 56,564
    Chris said:

    RobD said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    eadric said:

    isam said:

    DavidL said:

    Thanks for the thread but who cares what the delusional old bat thinks anymore? Even Labour are going to airbrush the embarrassment of his leadership from their collective memory as fast as possible.

    The Corbynites haven’t gone away you know.

    If Starmer screws up Richard Burgon is waiting in the wings.

    Remember oppositions don’t win general elections, governments lose them.

    If Johnson messes up the response Covid-19 we could see PM Burgon.

    https://twitter.com/richardburgon/status/1252168331618123776?s=21
    "China - 3"

    Rrrright
    Missing a couple of zeros there at least.
    So you reckon the case fatality rate in China was 300%?

    The odd thing is that people come out with this kind of thing and then whine when they are described as morons!
    I was partly joking, but what are you talking about? not 300%, 300 per million i.e. just a bit higher than the UK.
    My apologies. The official fatality rate in China is now 5.5%.

    You think it should be 550%, apparently.
    The underestimation surely applies to cases and deaths? I mean they just upped their death rate by a suspiciously precise 50% a few days ago...
    "Surely". An odd thing to say, as no evidence is ever provided for any of this innuendo.

    OK - surely they are yellow-skinned and slitty-eyed. No argument about that.
    It wouldn't be logical to claim that the death rate was underestimated but the case rate was not.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 7,713
    kle4 said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    eadric said:

    isam said:

    DavidL said:

    Thanks for the thread but who cares what the delusional old bat thinks anymore? Even Labour are going to airbrush the embarrassment of his leadership from their collective memory as fast as possible.

    The Corbynites haven’t gone away you know.

    If Starmer screws up Richard Burgon is waiting in the wings.

    Remember oppositions don’t win general elections, governments lose them.

    If Johnson messes up the response Covid-19 we could see PM Burgon.

    https://twitter.com/richardburgon/status/1252168331618123776?s=21
    "China - 3"

    Rrrright
    Missing a couple of zeros there at least.
    So you reckon the case fatality rate in China was 300%?

    The odd thing is that people come out with this kind of thing and then whine when they are described as morons!
    I was partly joking, but what are you talking about? not 300%, 300 per million i.e. just a bit higher than the UK.
    My apologies. The official fatality rate in China is now 5.5%.

    You think it should be 550%, apparently.
    You've doubled down on this, that's hilarious! He said nothing of the kind, and missing that once was funny, but twice?
    Someone else with a reading difficulty. You didn't understand that "Missing a couple of zeros" meant it should be multiplied by 100?

    Were you away the week you should have done arithmetic at school?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 11,446
    Chris said:

    RobD said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    eadric said:

    isam said:

    DavidL said:

    Thanks for the thread but who cares what the delusional old bat thinks anymore? Even Labour are going to airbrush the embarrassment of his leadership from their collective memory as fast as possible.

    The Corbynites haven’t gone away you know.

    If Starmer screws up Richard Burgon is waiting in the wings.

    Remember oppositions don’t win general elections, governments lose them.

    If Johnson messes up the response Covid-19 we could see PM Burgon.

    https://twitter.com/richardburgon/status/1252168331618123776?s=21
    "China - 3"

    Rrrright
    Missing a couple of zeros there at least.
    So you reckon the case fatality rate in China was 300%?

    The odd thing is that people come out with this kind of thing and then whine when they are described as morons!
    I was partly joking, but what are you talking about? not 300%, 300 per million i.e. just a bit higher than the UK.
    My apologies. The official fatality rate in China is now 5.5%.

    You think it should be 550%, apparently.
    The underestimation surely applies to cases and deaths? I mean they just upped their death rate by a suspiciously precise 50% a few days ago...
    "Surely". An odd thing to say, as no evidence is ever provided for any of this innuendo.

    OK - surely they are yellow-skinned and slitty-eyed. No argument about that.
    Circumstantial evidence is evidence. Therefore everything we know about Covid anywhere in the world, is evidence against which to test the likelihood of China's claims. Why you affect to think racism has anything to do with it, is beyond me.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 7,713
    RobD said:

    Chris said:

    RobD said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    eadric said:

    isam said:

    DavidL said:

    Thanks for the thread but who cares what the delusional old bat thinks anymore? Even Labour are going to airbrush the embarrassment of his leadership from their collective memory as fast as possible.

    The Corbynites haven’t gone away you know.

    If Starmer screws up Richard Burgon is waiting in the wings.

    Remember oppositions don’t win general elections, governments lose them.

    If Johnson messes up the response Covid-19 we could see PM Burgon.

    https://twitter.com/richardburgon/status/1252168331618123776?s=21
    "China - 3"

    Rrrright
    Missing a couple of zeros there at least.
    So you reckon the case fatality rate in China was 300%?

    The odd thing is that people come out with this kind of thing and then whine when they are described as morons!
    I was partly joking, but what are you talking about? not 300%, 300 per million i.e. just a bit higher than the UK.
    My apologies. The official fatality rate in China is now 5.5%.

    You think it should be 550%, apparently.
    The underestimation surely applies to cases and deaths? I mean they just upped their death rate by a suspiciously precise 50% a few days ago...
    "Surely". An odd thing to say, as no evidence is ever provided for any of this innuendo.

    OK - surely they are yellow-skinned and slitty-eyed. No argument about that.
    It wouldn't be logical to claim that the death rate was underestimated but the case rate was not.
    The claim was that the death rate was underestimated by a factor of 100. You'll need to ask the person who claimed that - without evidence - what else he may or may not be claiming. Don't ask me!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 56,564
    Chris said:

    RobD said:

    Chris said:

    RobD said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    eadric said:

    isam said:

    DavidL said:

    Thanks for the thread but who cares what the delusional old bat thinks anymore? Even Labour are going to airbrush the embarrassment of his leadership from their collective memory as fast as possible.

    The Corbynites haven’t gone away you know.

    If Starmer screws up Richard Burgon is waiting in the wings.

    Remember oppositions don’t win general elections, governments lose them.

    If Johnson messes up the response Covid-19 we could see PM Burgon.

    https://twitter.com/richardburgon/status/1252168331618123776?s=21
    "China - 3"

    Rrrright
    Missing a couple of zeros there at least.
    So you reckon the case fatality rate in China was 300%?

    The odd thing is that people come out with this kind of thing and then whine when they are described as morons!
    I was partly joking, but what are you talking about? not 300%, 300 per million i.e. just a bit higher than the UK.
    My apologies. The official fatality rate in China is now 5.5%.

    You think it should be 550%, apparently.
    The underestimation surely applies to cases and deaths? I mean they just upped their death rate by a suspiciously precise 50% a few days ago...
    "Surely". An odd thing to say, as no evidence is ever provided for any of this innuendo.

    OK - surely they are yellow-skinned and slitty-eyed. No argument about that.
    It wouldn't be logical to claim that the death rate was underestimated but the case rate was not.
    The claim was that the death rate was underestimated by a factor of 100. You'll need to ask the person who claimed that - without evidence - what else he may or may not be claiming. Don't ask me!
    Let me think about this for a second. Does someone who thinks that the death rate has been underestimated by an order of magnitude think that the case rate is actually perfectly fine? That's a tough one.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 4,123
    eadric said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    isam said:

    DavidL said:

    Thanks for the thread but who cares what the delusional old bat thinks anymore? Even Labour are going to airbrush the embarrassment of his leadership from their collective memory as fast as possible.

    The Corbynites haven’t gone away you know.

    If Starmer screws up Richard Burgon is waiting in the wings.

    Remember oppositions don’t win general elections, governments lose them.

    If Johnson messes up the response Covid-19 we could see PM Burgon.

    https://twitter.com/richardburgon/status/1252168331618123776?s=21
    WTF are New Zealand doing that's working?
    Being 1500 miles from the closest other nation and only basically one way in, and there are very limited reasons why people will arrive in NZ e.g. they are going there to transfer as an international hub.

    It made it very easy to just say we are shut.

    And of course add into that, very low population density.

    That is two massive advantages that basically no other country on earth has.
    Isn't Easter Island the most isolated populated island in the world?
    Isn't that title disputed with Pitcairn?
    There are a handful of populations in the Amazon and New Gineau that have no contact with the outside world at all, and the intention is to try and keep it that way.
  • isamisam Posts: 38,638
    kinabalu said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Thanks for the thread but who cares what the delusional old bat thinks anymore? Even Labour are going to airbrush the embarrassment of his leadership from their collective memory as fast as possible.

    The Corbynites haven’t gone away you know.

    If Starmer screws up Richard Burgon is waiting in the wings.

    Remember oppositions don’t win general elections, governments lose them.
    ANd how many votes did Burgon get? Too many obviously but he is hardly a threat. And Momentum did poorly in the National Executive elections as well didn't they? I think that they are a spent force.
    I agree. We might try and win from the Left again - I personally hope so - but it will not be anything resembling the Corbyn offering.
    The problem is that you will probably be to the left of the most left wing Tory party in history. So possibly resembling Corbyn
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,136
    edited April 2020
    Should add, you do have to give credit to NZ for swift action.

    However, I think Australia is probably a bigger success story. They are very well connected to Asia, and initially they had a significant number of imported cases from Asia and Europe. And although overall, population density is low, it certainly isn't in the major cities.

    Does also make me wonder if warmer climate might help slow the spread.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 26,408

    It's all a bit of a ludicrous counterfactual. But an additional point is that, if Corbyn was correct that Labour's standing just before the 2017 election was called would have been higher but for the coup (and David is pretty convincing on why that's a dubious claim) this would in itself have made an election less likely.

    May's ill-starred decision to call an election was predicated on Labour's division and weakness - had it been fairly even in early 2017, May wouldn't have called it (she nearly didn't as it was).

    Good point. May was a risk averse politician. She had to think she had a guaranteed landslide to go to the polls in 2017. Remove that belief - no election.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 35,763
    isam said:

    Sandpit said:

    South African Airways and Virgin Australia are also in serious trouble, talk of administration today for both of these. Airline industry not surprisingly on its knees.
    https://twitter.com/bbcnews/status/1252187021990334464?s=21
    I’d say there’s precisely zero chance of the UK government bailing out Virgin Atlantic.
    They’re not a strategic UK asset, they’re 49% owned by Delta in the USA and 51% owned by Virgin Group based in the British Virgin Islands.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 40,904
    kinabalu said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Thanks for the thread but who cares what the delusional old bat thinks anymore? Even Labour are going to airbrush the embarrassment of his leadership from their collective memory as fast as possible.

    The Corbynites haven’t gone away you know.

    If Starmer screws up Richard Burgon is waiting in the wings.

    Remember oppositions don’t win general elections, governments lose them.
    ANd how many votes did Burgon get? Too many obviously but he is hardly a threat. And Momentum did poorly in the National Executive elections as well didn't they? I think that they are a spent force.
    I agree. We might try and win from the Left again - I personally hope so - but it will not be anything resembling the Corbyn offering.
    I would tentatively suggest less anti-Semitic, less obsessed with Palestine, less inclination to attend the funerals of terrorists or inviting them to the House of Commons, less hatred and contempt for their country of their birth, maybe just a bit more focus on those in need in this country, god knows there is going to be enough of them.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 7,713
    IshmaelZ said:

    Chris said:

    RobD said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    eadric said:

    isam said:

    DavidL said:

    Thanks for the thread but who cares what the delusional old bat thinks anymore? Even Labour are going to airbrush the embarrassment of his leadership from their collective memory as fast as possible.

    The Corbynites haven’t gone away you know.

    If Starmer screws up Richard Burgon is waiting in the wings.

    Remember oppositions don’t win general elections, governments lose them.

    If Johnson messes up the response Covid-19 we could see PM Burgon.

    https://twitter.com/richardburgon/status/1252168331618123776?s=21
    "China - 3"

    Rrrright
    Missing a couple of zeros there at least.
    So you reckon the case fatality rate in China was 300%?

    The odd thing is that people come out with this kind of thing and then whine when they are described as morons!
    I was partly joking, but what are you talking about? not 300%, 300 per million i.e. just a bit higher than the UK.
    My apologies. The official fatality rate in China is now 5.5%.

    You think it should be 550%, apparently.
    The underestimation surely applies to cases and deaths? I mean they just upped their death rate by a suspiciously precise 50% a few days ago...
    "Surely". An odd thing to say, as no evidence is ever provided for any of this innuendo.

    OK - surely they are yellow-skinned and slitty-eyed. No argument about that.
    Circumstantial evidence is evidence.
    Well, what is the circumstantial evidence? I'm all ears for a shred of evidence, of whatever kind.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 46,148
    We all know that the restrictions are for the purpose of stopping the spread of the virus. But it is also neither feasible nor practical to prolong them for much longer. Never mind the impact on people’s finances and state of mind, much more of this and all that will be left of the economy will be a pile of rubble.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/04/19/ease-now-economy-turns-rubble/
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,136
    eadric said:

    Should add, you do have to give credit to NZ for swift action.

    I think Australia is probably a bigger success story. They are very well connected to Asia, and initially they had a significant number of imported cases from Asia and Europe. And although overall, population density is low, it certainly isn't in the major cities.

    Does also make me wonder if warmer climate might help slow the spread.

    Ecuador says hi
    Yes, but not advocating doing bugger all....Saying that Australia appear to have done very well, but I wonder if some warmer climate also help knocked down the R0 rate a bit more.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    The deaths per million measure that is being much-analysed is useless for two reasons:

    1) it isn't deaths per million in the UK. Deaths outside hospitals or not confirmed as involving Covid-19 in hospital are excluded. The actual rate may be understated by as much as 50%.

    2) different countries are also measuring different things.

    So you're comparing apples with oranges and the apple count is not a particularly meaningful number.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 69,284

    Should add, you do have to give credit to NZ for swift action.

    However, I think Australia is probably a bigger success story. They are very well connected to Asia, and initially they had a significant number of imported cases from Asia and Europe. And although overall, population density is low, it certainly isn't in the major cities.

    Does also make me wonder if warmer climate might help slow the spread.

    Scott Morrison should probably be getting more credit too...
  • ChrisChris Posts: 7,713
    RobD said:

    Chris said:

    RobD said:

    Chris said:

    RobD said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    eadric said:

    isam said:

    DavidL said:

    Thanks for the thread but who cares what the delusional old bat thinks anymore? Even Labour are going to airbrush the embarrassment of his leadership from their collective memory as fast as possible.

    The Corbynites haven’t gone away you know.

    If Starmer screws up Richard Burgon is waiting in the wings.

    Remember oppositions don’t win general elections, governments lose them.

    If Johnson messes up the response Covid-19 we could see PM Burgon.

    https://twitter.com/richardburgon/status/1252168331618123776?s=21
    "China - 3"

    Rrrright
    Missing a couple of zeros there at least.
    So you reckon the case fatality rate in China was 300%?

    The odd thing is that people come out with this kind of thing and then whine when they are described as morons!
    I was partly joking, but what are you talking about? not 300%, 300 per million i.e. just a bit higher than the UK.
    My apologies. The official fatality rate in China is now 5.5%.

    You think it should be 550%, apparently.
    The underestimation surely applies to cases and deaths? I mean they just upped their death rate by a suspiciously precise 50% a few days ago...
    "Surely". An odd thing to say, as no evidence is ever provided for any of this innuendo.

    OK - surely they are yellow-skinned and slitty-eyed. No argument about that.
    It wouldn't be logical to claim that the death rate was underestimated but the case rate was not.
    The claim was that the death rate was underestimated by a factor of 100. You'll need to ask the person who claimed that - without evidence - what else he may or may not be claiming. Don't ask me!
    Let me think about this for a second. Does someone who thinks that the death rate has been underestimated by an order of magnitude think that the case rate is actually perfectly fine? That's a tough one.
    Who knows what they think, or whether they think at all? They've provided not one whit of evidence, so your guess is as good as mine.

    But I do wonder what people like you think about this virus, if they think the Chinese numbers can't be believed.

    The fatality rate based on the numbers from Western Europe is 10% or more. I don't think anyone believes that, otherwise people would be in a state of distraction, and hiding under their beds. The numbers from China suggest 0.5-1%. As far as I know those are the best data we have.

    But if you dismiss those numbers, what do you believe, and on what basis? I really wonder.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 40,904

    The deaths per million measure that is being much-analysed is useless for two reasons:

    1) it isn't deaths per million in the UK. Deaths outside hospitals or not confirmed as involving Covid-19 in hospital are excluded. The actual rate may be understated by as much as 50%.

    2) different countries are also measuring different things.

    So you're comparing apples with oranges and the apple count is not a particularly meaningful number.

    Alastair, you're such a spoil sport bringing up tiresome facts.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 4,123
    Chris said:

    kle4 said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    eadric said:

    isam said:

    DavidL said:

    Thanks for the thread but who cares what the delusional old bat thinks anymore? Even Labour are going to airbrush the embarrassment of his leadership from their collective memory as fast as possible.

    The Corbynites haven’t gone away you know.

    If Starmer screws up Richard Burgon is waiting in the wings.

    Remember oppositions don’t win general elections, governments lose them.

    If Johnson messes up the response Covid-19 we could see PM Burgon.

    https://twitter.com/richardburgon/status/1252168331618123776?s=21
    "China - 3"

    Rrrright
    Missing a couple of zeros there at least.
    So you reckon the case fatality rate in China was 300%?

    The odd thing is that people come out with this kind of thing and then whine when they are described as morons!
    I was partly joking, but what are you talking about? not 300%, 300 per million i.e. just a bit higher than the UK.
    My apologies. The official fatality rate in China is now 5.5%.

    You think it should be 550%, apparently.
    You've doubled down on this, that's hilarious! He said nothing of the kind, and missing that once was funny, but twice?
    Someone else with a reading difficulty. You didn't understand that "Missing a couple of zeros" meant it should be multiplied by 100?

    Were you away the week you should have done arithmetic at school?
    Please don't go insulting people who are trying to point out your mistake.
    The twitter figure was for deaths per million, not the case fatality rate as you claimed. On top of that you say that 3 missing a couple of zeros is 300%.
    3 missing no zeros is 300%. And then you have the temerity to suggest that kle4 was absent for the "one week" that he should have been learning arithmetic.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 17,888
    To tie back to the 16,060

    The deaths per Nation are

    14,399 England Deaths per million 257
    893 Scotland 162
    575 Wales 185
    193 NI 102
    https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 69,284
    edited April 2020
    Sandpit said:

    isam said:

    Sandpit said:

    South African Airways and Virgin Australia are also in serious trouble, talk of administration today for both of these. Airline industry not surprisingly on its knees.
    https://twitter.com/bbcnews/status/1252187021990334464?s=21
    I’d say there’s precisely zero chance of the UK government bailing out Virgin Atlantic.
    They’re not a strategic UK asset, they’re 49% owned by Delta in the USA and 51% owned by Virgin Group based in the British Virgin Islands.
    I'd support a temporary? nationalisation of British Airways (We NEED A national carrier) but not a Virgin bailout, that's ridiculous.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    isam said:

    Sandpit said:

    South African Airways and Virgin Australia are also in serious trouble, talk of administration today for both of these. Airline industry not surprisingly on its knees.
    https://twitter.com/bbcnews/status/1252187021990334464?s=21
    I'll put away the world's smallest violin for now to note this raises the interesting question: how should the government decide which businesses to prop up and which to let go, or how to set criteria for access to government support? I expect a lot of thought is being given to this just now.
  • isamisam Posts: 38,638

    The deaths per million measure that is being much-analysed is useless for two reasons:

    1) it isn't deaths per million in the UK. Deaths outside hospitals or not confirmed as involving Covid-19 in hospital are excluded. The actual rate may be understated by as much as 50%.

    2) different countries are also measuring different things.

    So you're comparing apples with oranges and the apple count is not a particularly meaningful number.

    Patrick Vallance said that deaths are being counted as covid-19 in U.K. hospitals when no testing has been done to see if any covid-19 is present at all
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 99,293
    edited April 2020
    kinabalu said:

    It's all a bit of a ludicrous counterfactual. But an additional point is that, if Corbyn was correct that Labour's standing just before the 2017 election was called would have been higher but for the coup (and David is pretty convincing on why that's a dubious claim) this would in itself have made an election less likely.

    May's ill-starred decision to call an election was predicated on Labour's division and weakness - had it been fairly even in early 2017, May wouldn't have called it (she nearly didn't as it was).

    Good point. May was a risk averse politician. She had to think she had a guaranteed landslide to go to the polls in 2017. Remove that belief - no election.
    In March/April 2017 the Tory private polling and seat modelling showed Mrs May was on course for a 290 (two hundred and ninety) seat majority.

    Nick Timothy and his boss thought even if they ran the shittest campaign on record they’d still get a decent majority.

  • kamskikamski Posts: 2,282
    Chris said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Chris said:

    RobD said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    eadric said:

    isam said:

    DavidL said:

    Thanks for the thread but who cares what the delusional old bat thinks anymore? Even Labour are going to airbrush the embarrassment of his leadership from their collective memory as fast as possible.

    The Corbynites haven’t gone away you know.

    If Starmer screws up Richard Burgon is waiting in the wings.

    Remember oppositions don’t win general elections, governments lose them.

    If Johnson messes up the response Covid-19 we could see PM Burgon.

    https://twitter.com/richardburgon/status/1252168331618123776?s=21
    "China - 3"

    Rrrright
    Missing a couple of zeros there at least.
    So you reckon the case fatality rate in China was 300%?

    The odd thing is that people come out with this kind of thing and then whine when they are described as morons!
    I was partly joking, but what are you talking about? not 300%, 300 per million i.e. just a bit higher than the UK.
    My apologies. The official fatality rate in China is now 5.5%.

    You think it should be 550%, apparently.
    The underestimation surely applies to cases and deaths? I mean they just upped their death rate by a suspiciously precise 50% a few days ago...
    "Surely". An odd thing to say, as no evidence is ever provided for any of this innuendo.

    OK - surely they are yellow-skinned and slitty-eyed. No argument about that.
    Circumstantial evidence is evidence.
    Well, what is the circumstantial evidence? I'm all ears for a shred of evidence, of whatever kind.
    It became clear that the Chinese death rate must be more than 100 times what the official figures say as soon as it became clear the UK rate would be more than that.

    Especially to people who had previously pointed out how extremely draconian the Chinese containment measures were.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,136
    Quite funny that there was the April Fool that Branson put up his island as collateral and now it looks like it is actually the case.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 17,888
    Pulpstar said:

    Sandpit said:

    isam said:

    Sandpit said:

    South African Airways and Virgin Australia are also in serious trouble, talk of administration today for both of these. Airline industry not surprisingly on its knees.
    https://twitter.com/bbcnews/status/1252187021990334464?s=21
    I’d say there’s precisely zero chance of the UK government bailing out Virgin Atlantic.
    They’re not a strategic UK asset, they’re 49% owned by Delta in the USA and 51% owned by Virgin Group based in the British Virgin Islands.
    I'd support a temporary? nationalisation of British Airways (We NEED A national carrier) but not a Virgin bailout, that's ridiculous.
    Commie!!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 69,284
    edited April 2020

    isam said:

    Sandpit said:

    South African Airways and Virgin Australia are also in serious trouble, talk of administration today for both of these. Airline industry not surprisingly on its knees.
    https://twitter.com/bbcnews/status/1252187021990334464?s=21
    I'll put away the world's smallest violin for now to note this raises the interesting question: how should the government decide which businesses to prop up and which to let go, or how to set criteria for access to government support? I expect a lot of thought is being given to this just now.
    Case by case basis - for airlines, is the business strategically needed ? I'd say some airline capability is for sure.
    If so nationalise it. I'd look to British Airways rather than Virgin though for that.
  • isamisam Posts: 38,638
    eadric said:

    eadric said:

    Should add, you do have to give credit to NZ for swift action.

    I think Australia is probably a bigger success story. They are very well connected to Asia, and initially they had a significant number of imported cases from Asia and Europe. And although overall, population density is low, it certainly isn't in the major cities.

    Does also make me wonder if warmer climate might help slow the spread.

    Ecuador says hi
    Yes, but not advocating doing bugger all....Saying that Australia appear to have done very well, but I wonder if some warmer climate also help knocked down the R0 rate a bit more.
    Every time I think I've isolated a primary reason - obesity, age, climate, health system, testing, GDP per capita - why this or that nation has had a good plague, or a bad plague, I think of a counter-example which confuses the issue.

    As I have said before, it may that dumb luck is a major feature, and in the end most countries will end up quite similar, but they will arrive there at different times.

    Swedish Prof’s view
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,136
    edited April 2020
    eadric said:

    eadric said:

    Should add, you do have to give credit to NZ for swift action.

    I think Australia is probably a bigger success story. They are very well connected to Asia, and initially they had a significant number of imported cases from Asia and Europe. And although overall, population density is low, it certainly isn't in the major cities.

    Does also make me wonder if warmer climate might help slow the spread.

    Ecuador says hi
    Yes, but not advocating doing bugger all....Saying that Australia appear to have done very well, but I wonder if some warmer climate also help knocked down the R0 rate a bit more.
    Every time I think I've isolated a primary reason - obesity, age, climate, health system, testing, GDP per capita - why this or that nation has had a good plague, or a bad plague, I think of a counter-example which confuses the issue.

    As I have said before, it may that dumb luck is a major feature, and in the end most countries will end up quite similar, but they will arrive there at different times.

    There are clearly huge numbers of factors, but the thing to bare in mind at the moment, scientists don't even know conclusively how this is transmitted (and at what rate under different scenarios). It is very difficult to devise a perfect response to this when you don't even know how the enemy moves through your population.

    It might be that all this don't touch your deliveries for x hours is total nonsense. It might be that you need to be further than 2m away, so all those people going jogging thinking they are ok because they are a fair distance away aren't safe at all.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 69,284
    isam said:

    The deaths per million measure that is being much-analysed is useless for two reasons:

    1) it isn't deaths per million in the UK. Deaths outside hospitals or not confirmed as involving Covid-19 in hospital are excluded. The actual rate may be understated by as much as 50%.

    2) different countries are also measuring different things.

    So you're comparing apples with oranges and the apple count is not a particularly meaningful number.

    Patrick Vallance said that deaths are being counted as covid-19 in U.K. hospitals when no testing has been done to see if any covid-19 is present at all
    If someone has all the symptons that's probably more accurate than a test.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 41,659
    edited April 2020
    eadric said:

    eadric said:

    Should add, you do have to give credit to NZ for swift action.

    I think Australia is probably a bigger success story. They are very well connected to Asia, and initially they had a significant number of imported cases from Asia and Europe. And although overall, population density is low, it certainly isn't in the major cities.

    Does also make me wonder if warmer climate might help slow the spread.

    Ecuador says hi
    Yes, but not advocating doing bugger all....Saying that Australia appear to have done very well, but I wonder if some warmer climate also help knocked down the R0 rate a bit more.
    Every time I think I've isolated a primary reason - obesity, age, climate, health system, testing, GDP per capita - why this or that nation has had a good plague, or a bad plague, I think of a counter-example which confuses the issue.

    As I have said before, it may that dumb luck is a major feature, and in the end most countries will end up quite similar, but they will arrive there at different times.

    Terrible air quality seemed a decent reason - the virus finding a happy hunting ground in buggered up lungs. But then finding that smokers were far less likely to get it.

    It's a weird one and no mistake, Holmes.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    DavidL said:

    The deaths per million measure that is being much-analysed is useless for two reasons:

    1) it isn't deaths per million in the UK. Deaths outside hospitals or not confirmed as involving Covid-19 in hospital are excluded. The actual rate may be understated by as much as 50%.

    2) different countries are also measuring different things.

    So you're comparing apples with oranges and the apple count is not a particularly meaningful number.

    Alastair, you're such a spoil sport bringing up tiresome facts.
    The number that's worth watching most carefully is the weekly ONS statistic of total deaths. All other things being equal, it's reasonable to attribute any excess over the expected rate to Covid-19 at present.

    Indeed, given the lockdown it seems likely that perhaps understates Covid-19's virulence - I suspect that many types of accidental death are well down on usual.

    I appreciate everyone likes daily figures because they give a lot more to talk about, but aside from giving some idea of the trajectory, the numbers themselves seem close to useless to me.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    eadric said:

    eadric said:

    Should add, you do have to give credit to NZ for swift action.

    I think Australia is probably a bigger success story. They are very well connected to Asia, and initially they had a significant number of imported cases from Asia and Europe. And although overall, population density is low, it certainly isn't in the major cities.

    Does also make me wonder if warmer climate might help slow the spread.

    Ecuador says hi
    Yes, but not advocating doing bugger all....Saying that Australia appear to have done very well, but I wonder if some warmer climate also help knocked down the R0 rate a bit more.
    Every time I think I've isolated a primary reason - obesity, age, climate, health system, testing, GDP per capita - why this or that nation has had a good plague, or a bad plague, I think of a counter-example which confuses the issue.

    As I have said before, it may that dumb luck is a major feature, and in the end most countries will end up quite similar, but they will arrive there at different times.

    Public transport/trains seems to be the primary feature of areas that have suffered versus those that haven't.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 7,713
    eristdoof said:

    Chris said:

    kle4 said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    eadric said:

    isam said:

    DavidL said:

    Thanks for the thread but who cares what the delusional old bat thinks anymore? Even Labour are going to airbrush the embarrassment of his leadership from their collective memory as fast as possible.

    The Corbynites haven’t gone away you know.

    If Starmer screws up Richard Burgon is waiting in the wings.

    Remember oppositions don’t win general elections, governments lose them.

    If Johnson messes up the response Covid-19 we could see PM Burgon.

    https://twitter.com/richardburgon/status/1252168331618123776?s=21
    "China - 3"

    Rrrright
    Missing a couple of zeros there at least.
    So you reckon the case fatality rate in China was 300%?

    The odd thing is that people come out with this kind of thing and then whine when they are described as morons!
    I was partly joking, but what are you talking about? not 300%, 300 per million i.e. just a bit higher than the UK.
    My apologies. The official fatality rate in China is now 5.5%.

    You think it should be 550%, apparently.
    You've doubled down on this, that's hilarious! He said nothing of the kind, and missing that once was funny, but twice?
    Someone else with a reading difficulty. You didn't understand that "Missing a couple of zeros" meant it should be multiplied by 100?

    Were you away the week you should have done arithmetic at school?
    Please don't go insulting people who are trying to point out your mistake.
    The twitter figure was for deaths per million, not the case fatality rate as you claimed. On top of that you say that 3 missing a couple of zeros is 300%.
    3 missing no zeros is 300%. And then you have the temerity to suggest that kle4 was absent for the "one week" that he should have been learning arithmetic.
    No, you're hopelessly confused. The suggestion was that the Chinese death numbers needed to be larger by a factor of 100. What I pointed out what that that would mean a fatality rate of 300%. I was wrong - the current fatality rate in China is 5.5%, not 3% - it would be 550%.

    I don't know whether you understand, but it's not possible for the fatality rate to be larger than 100%, because that would mean the disease had killed more people than it had infected!

    If you can't follow these basic calculations, you should considering just shutting up.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,136
    edited April 2020
    Scott_xP said:
    As most of this is still manual (and part of the reason it is difficult to scale up), lab tech having the weekend off?
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 4,123

    eadric said:

    Should add, you do have to give credit to NZ for swift action.

    I think Australia is probably a bigger success story. They are very well connected to Asia, and initially they had a significant number of imported cases from Asia and Europe. And although overall, population density is low, it certainly isn't in the major cities.

    Does also make me wonder if warmer climate might help slow the spread.

    Ecuador says hi
    Yes, but not advocating doing bugger all....Saying that Australia appear to have done very well, but I wonder if some warmer climate also help knocked down the R0 rate a bit more.
    I cannot believe that warmer weather has a direct effect. I could believe that there is an indirect effect, because warm weather means you socialise more outside than inside. It is plausible and reasonable that being in a packed pub the disease spreads much more effectively than if those same people are drinking in a beer garden.
  • Scott_xP said:
    As most of this is still manual (and part of the reason it is difficult to scale up), lab tech having the weekend off?
    I think the weekend is when they give the labs a proper deep clean.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 92,646
    Agreed, the only reason Corbyn did so well in 2017 was he kept Leavers and Remainers in his tent by promising to deliver Brexit while opposing hard Brexit and due to May's terrible campaign and the dementia tax.

    By 2019 May had gone, Boris ran a more populist campaign, Leavers deserted Labour for the Tories after Corbyn failed to support Brexit and some Remainers switched from Labour to the LDs after Corbyn refused to commit hard enough to stop Brexit
This discussion has been closed.