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  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,751
    eadric said:

    eadric said:

    eadric said:

    Floater said:
    Those riots are quite quite different to the normal French farmers dumping manure on a minister.

    These are the bainlieues rising up. Potentially disastrous

    There are two sides to this. French police are brutal and the state does a bad job of integrating, but there are also loads of videos of the BAME communities in the French suburbs completely ignoring the lockdown and laughing at police trying to enforce it.

    A collision was inevitable
    While we are very down on the prospects for the UK. France is a very troubled country. Even before CV huge social issues and econmic issues, and unlike Germany or UK, a very rigid labour market and a people who won't accept even modest reform.
    Actually macron’s reforms were just starting to pay off as this virus hit. Check the stats on new business starts in the last couple of years. A huge surge. This bug came at just the wrong moment.

    If you want to see real trouble in Europe look further south, to Italy

    https://twitter.com/eurobriefing/status/1251904484269309952?s=21

    The article is good but what’s truly fascinating is the comment section underneath. It is full of Dutch, French, German and Italian readers all laying into each other. The insults between the Italians and the Dutch are particularly savage. The Dutch accuse the Italians of being feckless thieves, the Italians say the Dutch are soulless hypocrites.

    A mighty storm is brewing in the eurozone. They need coronabonds to weather it, but the Dutch and probably the Germans won’t allow this. Something has to give. The Italians might default
    'A mighty storm is brewing in the eurozone'

    I'm overwhelmed by a wearying wave of déjà vu.

    Fwiw Agnès Poirier on Start the Week this am said that coronabonds were very likely to come about, mainly because polling showed that the German populace were very much in favour of them.
    You're not normally this dim.

    There's more chance of me staying sober through lockdown than of Coronabonds ever happening. They just won't do it. A few random opinion polls will not convince Dutch German (and Finnish and Austrian) politicians to commit electoral suicide. Because that's what it would be.

    As one Dutch commenter says in that thread: why should I let my government take my life savings to bail our Italians who won't pay tax.

    It's a fair question, and the only answer is: the Dutch government won't do that, as the next thing would be Geert Wilders as prime minister.

    If you like we can have a bet on whether coronabonds happen. £100?
    I'm afraid I don't take gentlemen's wagers with such recent arrivals on the PB scene.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Gosh this fellow is a sensationalist! Look how employs a sleight of hand to hide data and fit his agenda

    https://twitter.com/cricketwyvern/status/1251877751751168000?s=21

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,654
    eadric said:

    eadric said:

    eadric said:

    Floater said:
    Those riots are quite quite different to the normal French farmers dumping manure on a minister.

    These are the bainlieues rising up. Potentially disastrous

    There are two sides to this. French police are brutal and the state does a bad job of integrating, but there are also loads of videos of the BAME communities in the French suburbs completely ignoring the lockdown and laughing at police trying to enforce it.

    A collision was inevitable
    While we are very down on the prospects for the UK. France is a very troubled country. Even before CV huge social issues and econmic issues, and unlike Germany or UK, a very rigid labour market and a people who won't accept even modest reform.
    Actually macron’s reforms were just starting to pay off as this virus hit. Check the stats on new business starts in the last couple of years. A huge surge. This bug came at just the wrong moment.

    If you want to see real trouble in Europe look further south, to Italy

    https://twitter.com/eurobriefing/status/1251904484269309952?s=21

    The article is good but what’s truly fascinating is the comment section underneath. It is full of Dutch, French, German and Italian readers all laying into each other. The insults between the Italians and the Dutch are particularly savage. The Dutch accuse the Italians of being feckless thieves, the Italians say the Dutch are soulless hypocrites.

    A mighty storm is brewing in the eurozone. They need coronabonds to weather it, but the Dutch and probably the Germans won’t allow this. Something has to give. The Italians might default
    'A mighty storm is brewing in the eurozone'

    I'm overwhelmed by a wearying wave of déjà vu.

    Fwiw Agnès Poirier on Start the Week this am said that coronabonds were very likely to come about, mainly because polling showed that the German populace were very much in favour of them.
    You're not normally this dim.

    There's more chance of me staying sober through lockdown than of Coronabonds ever happening. They just won't do it. A few random opinion polls will not convince Dutch German (and Finnish and Austrian) politicians to commit electoral suicide. Because that's what it would be.

    As one Dutch commenter says in that thread: why should I let my government take my life savings to bail our Italians who won't pay tax.

    It's a fair question, and the only answer is: the Dutch government won't do that, as the next thing would be Geert Wilders as prime minister.

    If you like we can have a bet on whether coronabonds happen. £100?
    FWIW I think that there will be Corona bonds eventually. The alternative is the collapse of the EZ economy with catastrophic consequences for Germany and Holland as well as the others. It will just be a bit late and a bit on the small side and create yet more bitterness as a result.
  • BannedinnParisBannedinnParis Posts: 1,884

    Singapore reports sharpest daily spike yet
    Singapore has confirmed 1,426 new Covid-19 cases - its biggest daily jump yet.

    The two words missing from any analysis of CV deaths:

    "so far"
  • fox327fox327 Posts: 369
    There has been speculation that if there is no vaccine found and reinfection with COVID occurs regularly the current situation will persist indefinitely.

    In fact, it is likely that cases would reduce and deaths would reduce by more. Many people who are dying in the first wave are highly vulnerable. They would be less likely to survive a first infection with COVID and then die after a second or subsequent infection. Also, previous COVID infection will probably create at least some immunity even if it is not permanent, so reducing death rates and case numbers. Thus, death rates should eventually reduce substantially even if the number of COVID cases does not reduce by as much as hoped.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,518
    edited April 2020
    DavidL said:

    eadric said:

    eadric said:

    eadric said:

    Floater said:
    Those riots are quite quite different to the normal French farmers dumping manure on a minister.

    These are the bainlieues rising up. Potentially disastrous

    There are two sides to this. French police are brutal and the state does a bad job of integrating, but there are also loads of videos of the BAME communities in the French suburbs completely ignoring the lockdown and laughing at police trying to enforce it.

    A collision was inevitable
    While we are very down on the prospects for the UK. France is a very troubled country. Even before CV huge social issues and econmic issues, and unlike Germany or UK, a very rigid labour market and a people who won't accept even modest reform.
    Actually macron’s reforms were just starting to pay off as this virus hit. Check the stats on new business starts in the last couple of years. A huge surge. This bug came at just the wrong moment.

    If you want to see real trouble in Europe look further south, to Italy

    https://twitter.com/eurobriefing/status/1251904484269309952?s=21

    The article is good but what’s truly fascinating is the comment section underneath. It is full of Dutch, French, German and Italian readers all laying into each other. The insults between the Italians and the Dutch are particularly savage. The Dutch accuse the Italians of being feckless thieves, the Italians say the Dutch are soulless hypocrites.

    A mighty storm is brewing in the eurozone. They need coronabonds to weather it, but the Dutch and probably the Germans won’t allow this. Something has to give. The Italians might default
    'A mighty storm is brewing in the eurozone'

    I'm overwhelmed by a wearying wave of déjà vu.

    Fwiw Agnès Poirier on Start the Week this am said that coronabonds were very likely to come about, mainly because polling showed that the German populace were very much in favour of them.
    You're not normally this dim.

    There's more chance of me staying sober through lockdown than of Coronabonds ever happening. They just won't do it. A few random opinion polls will not convince Dutch German (and Finnish and Austrian) politicians to commit electoral suicide. Because that's what it would be.

    As one Dutch commenter says in that thread: why should I let my government take my life savings to bail our Italians who won't pay tax.

    It's a fair question, and the only answer is: the Dutch government won't do that, as the next thing would be Geert Wilders as prime minister.

    If you like we can have a bet on whether coronabonds happen. £100?
    FWIW I think that there will be Corona bonds eventually. The alternative is the collapse of the EZ economy with catastrophic consequences for Germany and Holland as well as the others. It will just be a bit late and a bit on the small side and create yet more bitterness as a result.
    I'd be very surprised if there were coronabonds or any kind of overt/non-ECB debt pooling. Northern Europe would rather kick Italy out of the Euro.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,169
    eadric said:

    eadric said:

    eadric said:

    Floater said:
    Those riots are quite quite different to the normal French farmers dumping manure on a minister.

    These are the bainlieues rising up. Potentially disastrous

    There are two sides to this. French police are brutal and the state does a bad job of integrating, but there are also loads of videos of the BAME communities in the French suburbs completely ignoring the lockdown and laughing at police trying to enforce it.

    A collision was inevitable
    While we are very down on the prospects for the UK. France is a very troubled country. Even before CV huge social issues and econmic issues, and unlike Germany or UK, a very rigid labour market and a people who won't accept even modest reform.
    Actually macron’s reforms were just starting to pay off as this virus hit. Check the stats on new business starts in the last couple of years. A huge surge. This bug came at just the wrong moment.

    If you want to see real trouble in Europe look further south, to Italy

    https://twitter.com/eurobriefing/status/1251904484269309952?s=21

    The article is good but what’s truly fascinating is the comment section underneath. It is full of Dutch, French, German and Italian readers all laying into each other. The insults between the Italians and the Dutch are particularly savage. The Dutch accuse the Italians of being feckless thieves, the Italians say the Dutch are soulless hypocrites.

    A mighty storm is brewing in the eurozone. They need coronabonds to weather it, but the Dutch and probably the Germans won’t allow this. Something has to give. The Italians might default
    'A mighty storm is brewing in the eurozone'

    I'm overwhelmed by a wearying wave of déjà vu.

    Fwiw Agnès Poirier on Start the Week this am said that coronabonds were likely to come about, mainly because polling showed that the German populace were very much in favour of them.

    What matters is getting it approved by the Bundestag & Merkel has said on numerous occasions no coronabonds.
    Likewise the Austrian and Dutch finance ministers have flatly refused mutualised debt.

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-eu-bluemel/austria-says-eu-deal-should-not-be-a-back-door-to-coronabonds-idUSKCN21R3HK

    So bonds per se won't happen. Not least because Germany, Austria and Holland are all likely to be in deep recession for a while, as their export sectors take an enormous hit.

    What, then, will happen? Italy is tottering...
    Mutualised Eurozone bonds *HAVE* to happen for the EZ to survive, the lack of political support for them in Germany, Austria and the Netherlands risks undoing the whole project. They should have been more careful about the countries admitted to the Euro in the first place, but now they are where they are and need to do something about it.

    Oh, and Spain, Italy and Greece rely heavily on the tourist industry for revenue, things in those three countries are going to get a whole lot worse before they start to get better.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,527
    DavidL said:

    eadric said:

    eadric said:

    eadric said:

    Floater said:
    Those riots are quite quite different to the normal French farmers dumping manure on a minister.

    These are the bainlieues rising up. Potentially disastrous

    There are two sides to this. French police are brutal and the state does a bad job of integrating, but there are also loads of videos of the BAME communities in the French suburbs completely ignoring the lockdown and laughing at police trying to enforce it.

    A collision was inevitable
    While we are very down on the prospects for the UK. France is a very troubled country. Even before CV huge social issues and econmic issues, and unlike Germany or UK, a very rigid labour market and a people who won't accept even modest reform.
    Actually macron’s reforms were just starting to pay off as this virus hit. Check the stats on new business starts in the last couple of years. A huge surge. This bug came at just the wrong moment.

    If you want to see real trouble in Europe look further south, to Italy

    https://twitter.com/eurobriefing/status/1251904484269309952?s=21

    The article is good but what’s truly fascinating is the comment section underneath. It is full of Dutch, French, German and Italian readers all laying into each other. The insults between the Italians and the Dutch are particularly savage. The Dutch accuse the Italians of being feckless thieves, the Italians say the Dutch are soulless hypocrites.

    A mighty storm is brewing in the eurozone. They need coronabonds to weather it, but the Dutch and probably the Germans won’t allow this. Something has to give. The Italians might default
    'A mighty storm is brewing in the eurozone'

    I'm overwhelmed by a wearying wave of déjà vu.

    Fwiw Agnès Poirier on Start the Week this am said that coronabonds were very likely to come about, mainly because polling showed that the German populace were very much in favour of them.
    You're not normally this dim.

    There's more chance of me staying sober through lockdown than of Coronabonds ever happening. They just won't do it. A few random opinion polls will not convince Dutch German (and Finnish and Austrian) politicians to commit electoral suicide. Because that's what it would be.

    As one Dutch commenter says in that thread: why should I let my government take my life savings to bail our Italians who won't pay tax.

    It's a fair question, and the only answer is: the Dutch government won't do that, as the next thing would be Geert Wilders as prime minister.

    If you like we can have a bet on whether coronabonds happen. £100?
    FWIW I think that there will be Corona bonds eventually. The alternative is the collapse of the EZ economy with catastrophic consequences for Germany and Holland as well as the others. It will just be a bit late and a bit on the small side and create yet more bitterness as a result.
    Coronabonds will simply equal a more managed breakup of the Eurozone over time, given the bitterness you rightly point out. I am an arch-remainer but the introduction of the Euro and the way it has been managed has proved to be the biggest, potentially terminal, mistake of the EEC/EC/EU since its foundation. There's a reason UKIP had (has?) a £ sign as its logo.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 22,572
    edited April 2020
    isam said:

    I suspect that a lot of people are ending the lockdown of their accord.

    Most people I know are relaxing it now
    Genuine questions:

    But are they ending it, or complying with the real regulations as opposed to the accretions that appeared on top at the behest of the Govt and the Police?

    And is it different by metropolitan / small town / rural?

    Around here - 40k town in the ex-red wall, there is modestly more traffic, but it is still like the 1940s.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,411
    Andy_JS said:
    I think that dry run tests of the ability to lock down will be a feature of the future - at various scales.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,006
    edited April 2020
    fox327 said:

    There has been speculation that if there is no vaccine found and reinfection with COVID occurs regularly the current situation will persist indefinitely.

    In fact, it is likely that cases would reduce and deaths would reduce by more. Many people who are dying in the first wave are highly vulnerable. They would be less likely to survive a first infection with COVID and then die after a second or subsequent infection. Also, previous COVID infection will probably create at least some immunity even if it is not permanent, so reducing death rates and case numbers. Thus, death rates should eventually reduce substantially even if the number of COVID cases does not reduce by as much as hoped.

    I was thinking the same thing. The reason the second wave of the 1918 flu epidemic was worse than the first was probably because it affected young people as much as older people. With the particular characteristics of coronavirus, the first wave is likely to be the worst.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,769

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    alex_ said:

    Just as we were slow to enter I suspect we'll be slow to exit.

    Most European countries are starting to lift some restrictions now.

    Although for many, that is involving returning to a lockdown state that is still no less restrictive than the U.K.
    Really? From BBC news:

    “ On Monday, in Germany small shops will be allowed to open and schools will resume for those classes that have graduation exams coming up.

    Last week Berlin said the infection rate had slowed and that the outbreak was under control - while warning that people had to remain vigilant to avoid a second wave of infections.

    Also from Monday, Poland will re-open parks and forests and in Norway, nursery schools will reopen their doors to children. The Czech Republic will allow open-air markets to trade and in Albania, the mining and oil industries can operate again.”
    Well, that's mixed. We haven't (mostly) closed parks and forests and my local market is certainly still operating.
    The U.K. lockdown is not as strict as measures imposed in many other countries, who are not allowing any leaving of the house except to buy groceries or medicines, and have police and even army on the streets enforcing the measures.
    I think it is only Spain in Europe that has even banned outside exercise
    Russia has. One of my Russian friends on Strava is running laps of his dacha. Both Italy and France have brought in much stricter conditions - in France it has to be a maximum of 1 hour and within a km of your home, and at least in some places including Paris, not during daytime.
    I’d assumed that that the idea was to let people get some fresh air, walk the dog etc. I was surprised to hear that people are doing 10km runs, 40km bike rides and getting in cars to go to parks - none of which seem to me to be in the spirit of the regulations.
    The idea is to get out for physical exercise, regular daily exercise is good for both mental and physical health. I did a 15 mile run early yesterday morning and saw no-one. It was lovely running on deserted roads and I was never much more than 4 miles from my front door. Most people won't want to do this but it's a good time to dust off that C25k app. Michael Gove did at one point say "exercise as much as you normally would". It's much liwer
    10k or so 3 or 4 times a week for me + gardening + mucking out duties. I'll pass maybe 7 or 8 other people on a run, probably around 10 metres away on average. I'm running on the right pavement generally so I can cross if I can see a cyclist coming even though I'd be over 2 metres away from them. I've both walked and sped up to try and keep as much distance as possible between myself and other people, average pace is around 6 mph - so nice and easy generally.
    My 10k run is probably far safer than a 15 minute dog walk in London.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,284

    Singapore reports sharpest daily spike yet
    Singapore has confirmed 1,426 new Covid-19 cases - its biggest daily jump yet.

    Where do Singapore's immigrant workers come from? Thailand, for example, doesn't seem to have much of a problem.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,654
    eadric said:

    eadric said:

    eadric said:

    Floater said:
    Those riots are quite quite different to the normal French farmers dumping manure on a minister.

    These are the bainlieues rising up. Potentially disastrous

    There are two sides to this. French police are brutal and the state does a bad job of integrating, but there are also loads of videos of the BAME communities in the French suburbs completely ignoring the lockdown and laughing at police trying to enforce it.

    A collision was inevitable
    While we are very down on the prospects for the UK. France is a very troubled country. Even before CV huge social issues and econmic issues, and unlike Germany or UK, a very rigid labour market and a people who won't accept even modest reform.
    Actually macron’s reforms were just starting to pay off as this virus hit. Check the stats on new business starts in the last couple of years. A huge surge. This bug came at just the wrong moment.

    If you want to see real trouble in Europe look further south, to Italy

    https://twitter.com/eurobriefing/status/1251904484269309952?s=21

    The article is good but what’s truly fascinating is the comment section underneath. It is full of Dutch, French, German and Italian readers all laying into each other. The insults between the Italians and the Dutch are particularly savage. The Dutch accuse the Italians of being feckless thieves, the Italians say the Dutch are soulless hypocrites.

    A mighty storm is brewing in the eurozone. They need coronabonds to weather it, but the Dutch and probably the Germans won’t allow this. Something has to give. The Italians might default
    'A mighty storm is brewing in the eurozone'

    I'm overwhelmed by a wearying wave of déjà vu.

    Fwiw Agnès Poirier on Start the Week this am said that coronabonds were likely to come about, mainly because polling showed that the German populace were very much in favour of them.

    What matters is getting it approved by the Bundestag & Merkel has said on numerous occasions no coronabonds.
    Likewise the Austrian and Dutch finance ministers have flatly refused mutualised debt.

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-eu-bluemel/austria-says-eu-deal-should-not-be-a-back-door-to-coronabonds-idUSKCN21R3HK

    So bonds per se won't happen. Not least because Germany, Austria and Holland are all likely to be in deep recession for a while, as their export sectors take an enormous hit.

    What, then, will happen? Italy is tottering.

    Probably it will be something like THIS, but is it enough? -

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-16/eu-targets-super-charged-crisis-budget-with-coronabonds-blocked
    Ultimately Corona bonds will be more attractive to the Germans than this. Allowing the EU to run a huge deficit would give Germany far less control than limited issuance of the bonds for which they stand guarantor and which can be sold at or near German rates. A deficit effectively funded by additional Euro issuance by the ECB is QE and that is far more an anathema to the Germans that debt.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,518
    On coronabonds the issue is who pays for the cost of servicing the debt. Under the current proposals the creditor nations take the risk and pay for the interest. That will never pass.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 4,980
    edited April 2020
    When comparing the experience between countries, how packed in people are in built-up areas is obviously a major factor.

    This shows (under "built up density") this metric across Europe. We should compare the death rates in similar countries to each other. (Credit to Alistair Rae in CityMetric)

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,654
    MaxPB said:

    DavidL said:

    eadric said:

    eadric said:

    eadric said:

    Floater said:
    Those riots are quite quite different to the normal French farmers dumping manure on a minister.

    These are the bainlieues rising up. Potentially disastrous

    There are two sides to this. French police are brutal and the state does a bad job of integrating, but there are also loads of videos of the BAME communities in the French suburbs completely ignoring the lockdown and laughing at police trying to enforce it.

    A collision was inevitable
    While we are very down on the prospects for the UK. France is a very troubled country. Even before CV huge social issues and econmic issues, and unlike Germany or UK, a very rigid labour market and a people who won't accept even modest reform.
    Actually macron’s reforms were just starting to pay off as this virus hit. Check the stats on new business starts in the last couple of years. A huge surge. This bug came at just the wrong moment.

    If you want to see real trouble in Europe look further south, to Italy

    https://twitter.com/eurobriefing/status/1251904484269309952?s=21

    The article is good but what’s truly fascinating is the comment section underneath. It is full of Dutch, French, German and Italian readers all laying into each other. The insults between the Italians and the Dutch are particularly savage. The Dutch accuse the Italians of being feckless thieves, the Italians say the Dutch are soulless hypocrites.

    A mighty storm is brewing in the eurozone. They need coronabonds to weather it, but the Dutch and probably the Germans won’t allow this. Something has to give. The Italians might default
    'A mighty storm is brewing in the eurozone'

    I'm overwhelmed by a wearying wave of déjà vu.

    Fwiw Agnès Poirier on Start the Week this am said that coronabonds were very likely to come about, mainly because polling showed that the German populace were very much in favour of them.
    You're not normally this dim.

    There's more chance of me staying sober through lockdown than of Coronabonds ever happening. They just won't do it. A few random opinion polls will not convince Dutch German (and Finnish and Austrian) politicians to commit electoral suicide. Because that's what it would be.

    As one Dutch commenter says in that thread: why should I let my government take my life savings to bail our Italians who won't pay tax.

    It's a fair question, and the only answer is: the Dutch government won't do that, as the next thing would be Geert Wilders as prime minister.

    If you like we can have a bet on whether coronabonds happen. £100?
    FWIW I think that there will be Corona bonds eventually. The alternative is the collapse of the EZ economy with catastrophic consequences for Germany and Holland as well as the others. It will just be a bit late and a bit on the small side and create yet more bitterness as a result.
    I'd be very surprised if there were coronabonds or any kind of overt/non-ECB debt pooling. Northern Europe would rather kick Italy out of the Euro.
    That will be their instinctive response. And then they will run the numbers....
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,411

    When comparing the experience between countries, how packed in people are in built-up areas is obviously a major factor.

    This shows (under "built up density") this metric across Europe. We should compare the death rates in similar countries to each other.

    The problem with this is regional variation - parts of London are MegaCity One. Parts of the UK, there is no-one to the visible horizon.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    Andy_JS said:

    fox327 said:

    There has been speculation that if there is no vaccine found and reinfection with COVID occurs regularly the current situation will persist indefinitely.

    In fact, it is likely that cases would reduce and deaths would reduce by more. Many people who are dying in the first wave are highly vulnerable. They would be less likely to survive a first infection with COVID and then die after a second or subsequent infection. Also, previous COVID infection will probably create at least some immunity even if it is not permanent, so reducing death rates and case numbers. Thus, death rates should eventually reduce substantially even if the number of COVID cases does not reduce by as much as hoped.

    I was thinking the same thing. The reason the second wave of the 1918 flu epidemic was worse than the first was probably because it affected young people as much as older people. With the particular characteristics of coronavirus, the first wave is likely to be the worst.
    I think some of the discussions around “immunity” are failing to distinguish between “having a level of antibodies to render the virus less harmful to an individual getting it” and “immune to catching it” (and by extension unable to pass on to others)
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    Singapore reports sharpest daily spike yet
    Singapore has confirmed 1,426 new Covid-19 cases - its biggest daily jump yet.

    Where do Singapore's immigrant workers come from? Thailand, for example, doesn't seem to have much of a problem.
    Bangladesh and India.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,518
    DavidL said:

    MaxPB said:

    DavidL said:

    eadric said:

    eadric said:

    eadric said:

    Floater said:
    Those riots are quite quite different to the normal French farmers dumping manure on a minister.

    These are the bainlieues rising up. Potentially disastrous

    There are two sides to this. French police are brutal and the state does a bad job of integrating, but there are also loads of videos of the BAME communities in the French suburbs completely ignoring the lockdown and laughing at police trying to enforce it.

    A collision was inevitable
    While we are very down on the prospects for the UK. France is a very troubled country. Even before CV huge social issues and econmic issues, and unlike Germany or UK, a very rigid labour market and a people who won't accept even modest reform.
    Actually macron’s reforms were just starting to pay off as this virus hit. Check the stats on new business starts in the last couple of years. A huge surge. This bug came at just the wrong moment.

    If you want to see real trouble in Europe look further south, to Italy

    https://twitter.com/eurobriefing/status/1251904484269309952?s=21

    The article is good but what’s truly fascinating is the comment section underneath. It is full of Dutch, French, German and Italian readers all laying into each other. The insults between the Italians and the Dutch are particularly savage. The Dutch accuse the Italians of being feckless thieves, the Italians say the Dutch are soulless hypocrites.

    A mighty storm is brewing in the eurozone. They need coronabonds to weather it, but the Dutch and probably the Germans won’t allow this. Something has to give. The Italians might default
    'A mighty storm is brewing in the eurozone'

    I'm overwhelmed by a wearying wave of déjà vu.

    Fwiw Agnès Poirier on Start the Week this am said that coronabonds were very likely to come about, mainly because polling showed that the German populace were very much in favour of them.
    You're not normally this dim.

    There's more chance of me staying sober through lockdown than of Coronabonds ever happening. They just won't do it. A few random opinion polls will not convince Dutch German (and Finnish and Austrian) politicians to commit electoral suicide. Because that's what it would be.

    As one Dutch commenter says in that thread: why should I let my government take my life savings to bail our Italians who won't pay tax.

    It's a fair question, and the only answer is: the Dutch government won't do that, as the next thing would be Geert Wilders as prime minister.

    If you like we can have a bet on whether coronabonds happen. £100?
    FWIW I think that there will be Corona bonds eventually. The alternative is the collapse of the EZ economy with catastrophic consequences for Germany and Holland as well as the others. It will just be a bit late and a bit on the small side and create yet more bitterness as a result.
    I'd be very surprised if there were coronabonds or any kind of overt/non-ECB debt pooling. Northern Europe would rather kick Italy out of the Euro.
    That will be their instinctive response. And then they will run the numbers....
    Yes, they will and I think they'd rather bail out their banks than the Italian public.
  • eekeek Posts: 27,939
    DavidL said:

    MaxPB said:



    I'd be very surprised if there were coronabonds or any kind of overt/non-ECB debt pooling. Northern Europe would rather kick Italy out of the Euro.

    That will be their instinctive response. And then they will run the numbers....
    Yep, there are two options, both hideous and no electorate are going to like the end result.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,654
    eadric said:

    Sandpit said:

    eadric said:

    eadric said:

    eadric said:

    Floater said:
    Those riots are quite quite different to the normal French farmers dumping manure on a minister.

    These are the bainlieues rising up. Potentially disastrous

    There are two sides to this. French police are brutal and the state does a bad job of integrating, but there are also loads of videos of the BAME communities in the French suburbs completely ignoring the lockdown and laughing at police trying to enforce it.

    A collision was inevitable
    While we are very down on the prospects for the UK. France is a very troubled country. Even before CV huge social issues and econmic issues, and unlike Germany or UK, a very rigid labour market and a people who won't accept even modest reform.
    Actually macron’s reforms were just starting to pay off as this virus hit. Check the stats on new business starts in the last couple of years. A huge surge. This bug came at just the wrong moment.

    If you want to see real trouble in Europe look further south, to Italy

    https://twitter.com/eurobriefing/status/1251904484269309952?s=21

    The article is good but what’s truly fascinating is the comment section underneath. It is full of Dutch, French, German and Italian readers all laying into each other. The insults between the Italians and the Dutch are particularly savage. The Dutch accuse the Italians of being feckless thieves, the Italians say the Dutch are soulless hypocrites.

    A mighty storm is brewing in the eurozone. They need coronabonds to weather it, but the Dutch and probably the Germans won’t allow this. Something has to give. The Italians might default
    'A mighty storm is brewing in the eurozone'

    I'm overwhelmed by a wearying wave of déjà vu.

    Fwiw Agnès Poirier on Start the Week this am said that coronabonds were likely to come about, mainly because polling showed that the German populace were very much in favour of them.

    What matters is getting it approved by the Bundestag & Merkel has said on numerous occasions no coronabonds.
    Likewise the Austrian and Dutch finance ministers have flatly refused mutualised debt.

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-eu-bluemel/austria-says-eu-deal-should-not-be-a-back-door-to-coronabonds-idUSKCN21R3HK

    So bonds per se won't happen. Not least because Germany, Austria and Holland are all likely to be in deep recession for a while, as their export sectors take an enormous hit.

    What, then, will happen? Italy is tottering...
    Mutualised Eurozone bonds *HAVE* to happen for the EZ to survive, the lack of political support for them in Germany, Austria and the Netherlands risks undoing the whole project. They should have been more careful about the countries admitted to the Euro in the first place, but now they are where they are and need to do something about it.

    Oh, and Spain, Italy and Greece rely heavily on the tourist industry for revenue, things in those three countries are going to get a whole lot worse before they start to get better.
    Germany is about to go into major recession, maybe Depression. It's very export reliant and that's not a good place to be during the virus. Even if Berlin escapes the worst of the death tolls it won't escape the economic fallout.

    How can you persuade German voters to offer their savings to guarantee Italian debt, even as millions of Germans lose their jobs?

    It would take a charismatic leader with tremendous genius. Merkel is clever, but she was never a genius, and she is fading.

    Who else is going to buy their exports? They might want to think about that.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    MattW said:

    isam said:

    I suspect that a lot of people are ending the lockdown of their accord.

    Most people I know are relaxing it now
    Genuine questions:

    But are they ending it, or complying with the real regulations as opposed to the accretions that appeared on top at the behest of the Govt and the Police?

    And is it different by metropolitan / small town / rural?

    Around here - 40k town in the ex-red wall, there is modestly more traffic, but it is still like the 1940s.
    I’ve gone out for a run with a mate a couple of times, we’ve seen my girlfriends parents, most of my mates have popped round another mates house for a few beers. Nothing really off the scale bad I’d say. Mind you a lot of my mates used to/still shag brasses and do gear, so they’re not exactly law abiding moral crusaders!

    East London suburb/Essex borders

    I’ve barely popped out other than to one shop, and there’s a lot of farmland here which I run and cycle over so I haven’t really noticed the town. The fields are busier than normal as everyone’s off. I don’t usually work much Mon-Fri daytimes so have them all to myself!

    I reckon we’ll have people round pretty soon though for a drink or food in the garden.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,411
    eek said:

    DavidL said:

    MaxPB said:



    I'd be very surprised if there were coronabonds or any kind of overt/non-ECB debt pooling. Northern Europe would rather kick Italy out of the Euro.

    That will be their instinctive response. And then they will run the numbers....
    Yep, there are two options, both hideous and no electorate are going to like the end result.
    There are always the 3rd and 4th options -

    3) Action so compromised that it does nothing much
    4) Actually do nothing
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 4,980

    When comparing the experience between countries, how packed in people are in built-up areas is obviously a major factor.

    This shows (under "built up density") this metric across Europe. We should compare the death rates in similar countries to each other.

    The problem with this is regional variation - parts of London are MegaCity One. Parts of the UK, there is no-one to the visible horizon.
    That's the point of that table. I should have explained further.

    (see the original article her: https://www.citymetric.com/fabric/these-maps-reveal-truth-about-population-density-across-europe-3625 )

    Spain, for example, has a low overall population density, but when you look at it further: "Spain contains within it more than 505,000 1km squares. But only 13 per cent of them are lived in. This means that the “lived density” for Spain is in fact 737 people per km², rather than 93. So even though the settlement pattern appears sparse, people are actually quite tightly packed together."

    So the "lived density" is the population density where the population actually lives.

  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    When comparing the experience between countries, how packed in people are in built-up areas is obviously a major factor.

    This shows (under "built up density") this metric across Europe. We should compare the death rates in similar countries to each other. (Credit to Alistair Rae in CityMetric)

    That’s why saying 1% of New York dying from it shouldn’t be taken as meaning the death rate is 1% in my opinion, esp when you add in pollution.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,654

    eek said:

    DavidL said:

    MaxPB said:



    I'd be very surprised if there were coronabonds or any kind of overt/non-ECB debt pooling. Northern Europe would rather kick Italy out of the Euro.

    That will be their instinctive response. And then they will run the numbers....
    Yep, there are two options, both hideous and no electorate are going to like the end result.
    There are always the 3rd and 4th options -

    3) Action so compromised that it does nothing much
    4) Actually do nothing
    I fear (3) is the most typical EU response. But we can hope.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,527
    isam said:

    MattW said:

    isam said:

    I suspect that a lot of people are ending the lockdown of their accord.

    Most people I know are relaxing it now
    Genuine questions:

    But are they ending it, or complying with the real regulations as opposed to the accretions that appeared on top at the behest of the Govt and the Police?

    And is it different by metropolitan / small town / rural?

    Around here - 40k town in the ex-red wall, there is modestly more traffic, but it is still like the 1940s.
    I’ve gone out for a run with a mate a couple of times, we’ve seen my girlfriends parents, most of my mates have popped round another mates house for a few beers. Nothing really off the scale bad I’d say. Mind you a lot of my mates used to/still shag brasses and do gear, so they’re not exactly law abiding moral crusaders!

    East London suburb/Essex borders

    I’ve barely popped out other than to one shop, and there’s a lot of farmland here which I run and cycle over so I haven’t really noticed the town. The fields are busier than normal as everyone’s off. I don’t usually work much Mon-Fri daytimes so have them all to myself!

    I reckon we’ll have people round pretty soon though for a drink or food in the garden.
    I don't think we'll see any large scale protests or civil disobedience, but one by one small cracks like this will appear, hairdressers offering to come to people's homes, dentists vastly increasing the scope of "emergency" treatment, that kind of thing.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 4,980
    isam said:

    When comparing the experience between countries, how packed in people are in built-up areas is obviously a major factor.

    This shows (under "built up density") this metric across Europe. We should compare the death rates in similar countries to each other. (Credit to Alistair Rae in CityMetric)

    That’s why saying 1% of New York dying from it shouldn’t be taken as meaning the death rate is 1% in my opinion, esp when you add in pollution.
    Well, the death rate there is currently 0.1%, which does mean 0.1% of NY has died of it.
    If one in a hundred New Yorkers, regardless of where they live in New York, have died, then 1% of New Yorkers have died.

    It does mean that these deaths would be likely to be more concentrated in the denser areas, indeed, but there, more than 0.1% of the population there have died of it.

  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,411

    When comparing the experience between countries, how packed in people are in built-up areas is obviously a major factor.

    This shows (under "built up density") this metric across Europe. We should compare the death rates in similar countries to each other.

    The problem with this is regional variation - parts of London are MegaCity One. Parts of the UK, there is no-one to the visible horizon.
    That's the point of that table. I should have explained further.

    (see the original article her: https://www.citymetric.com/fabric/these-maps-reveal-truth-about-population-density-across-europe-3625 )

    Spain, for example, has a low overall population density, but when you look at it further: "Spain contains within it more than 505,000 1km squares. But only 13 per cent of them are lived in. This means that the “lived density” for Spain is in fact 737 people per km², rather than 93. So even though the settlement pattern appears sparse, people are actually quite tightly packed together."

    So the "lived density" is the population density where the population actually lives.

    That helps, but doesn't fully deal with the village vs city centre issue, I think.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    Andy_JS said:
    I think that dry run tests of the ability to lock down will be a feature of the future - at various scales.
    I think there’s a big chance it will be used by people with bad motives in the future. We have shown how willing we are to defer to authority, and how many people get angry with those who even question it.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,411
    Cyclefree said:

    Nigelb said:

    Not much social distancing going on here....

    https://twitter.com/GranadaReports/status/1251834056859439107

    Never mind an apology. I’d be interested in looking at cases where this officer has given evidence to see whether any of that was “made up”.

    You’d have to be very trusting to imagine that this was the first occasion that this concept occurred to this officer.

    Cyclefree said:

    ydoethur said:

    FF43 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Alistair said:

    Nigelb said:

    Blimey, a Telegraph article I am in 100% agreement with.
    And on topic, too.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/britain-can-avoid-second-peak-covid-19-restart-economy/
    ... The challenge for the Prime Minister is how to tread this middle path between lockdown and normalcy; how to make the number his epidemiologists give him work for Britain PLC.

    There are a number of prerequisites, the most important of which is getting a nationwide network of test and trace teams in place in order that new cases can be quickly detected and isolated.

    It’s a good idea to get people who volunteered as NHS helpers to do this, but perhaps managed by someone from Sandhurst rather than PHE.

    Concise public communications is also going to be vital. Telling everyone to stay put is one thing, a more nuanced message quite another.

    But this is not the same as treating us like fools....

    At least its ahowing a lot more sense than the Daily Jackboot.
    What the fuck is the "Daily Jackboot"? And what kind of twat uses that term?
    Hurrah for the Blackshirts
    It has always intrigued me that the Daily Mail is never allowed to forget its brief flirtation with Mosley while nobody ever mentions that the Daily Mirror was far more enthusiastic about them for far longer.
    Maybe it's the suspicion that the DM would still be supporting the black shirts if they were around now?
    The Daily Mirror supported Corbyn *innocent face*
    Or the Guardian having as one of its main columnists a man who supported Stalin. The tolerance of those who supported or excused the crimes of Communism is both baffling and morally repellent.
    It is possible to abhor both regimes.

    And not to excuse Stalin’s crimes one bit, I do wonder if without the iron grip he had on the USSR they would have been able, albeit after a disastrous 1941, to eventually beat Nazi Germany. Would it have been worse to see Stalin defeated with Hitler dominating Europe? Hitler would’ve then gone for the Middle East and into India, given half a chance. He wanted global domination, not just Eastern Europe.

    I obviously don’t know the answers, it’s just an interesting ’what if?...’
    Communism’s crimes predated Stalin and continued after his death.

    Even if a Stalin was needed to defeat Hitler, there is absolutely no reason to defend Stalin’s crimes or those of Communism - either before or after the war - let alone decades later.

    Communism was and is a vile ideology which has resulted in the death of millions, untold cruelties and the destruction of societies. It is every bit as morally repellent as fascism or nazism. I can see no good reason why any intelligent being would seek to excuse it or justify it.
    Not destroying Poland would have left a buffer between the Soviet Union and Germany. Germany took 5 weeks to conquer half of Poland - which was fighting a 2 front war at the end. So no possibility of surprise attack on the SU...
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 4,980

    When comparing the experience between countries, how packed in people are in built-up areas is obviously a major factor.

    This shows (under "built up density") this metric across Europe. We should compare the death rates in similar countries to each other.

    The problem with this is regional variation - parts of London are MegaCity One. Parts of the UK, there is no-one to the visible horizon.
    That's the point of that table. I should have explained further.

    (see the original article her: https://www.citymetric.com/fabric/these-maps-reveal-truth-about-population-density-across-europe-3625 )

    Spain, for example, has a low overall population density, but when you look at it further: "Spain contains within it more than 505,000 1km squares. But only 13 per cent of them are lived in. This means that the “lived density” for Spain is in fact 737 people per km², rather than 93. So even though the settlement pattern appears sparse, people are actually quite tightly packed together."

    So the "lived density" is the population density where the population actually lives.

    That helps, but doesn't fully deal with the village vs city centre issue, I think.
    I think looking at the difference between the arithmetic density (the number of people in the country divided by its area) and the lived density (the average population density where there are settlements) should at least give an indication. If the delta is high, it points to a massive difference between urbanised and non-urbanised areas. Where it is low, it's fairly spread out.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,518
    eadric said:
    Yes, the major issue with coronabonds for Merkel is that they haven't got democratic consent. They need treaty change which means a whole round of crap that no one wants.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    When comparing the experience between countries, how packed in people are in built-up areas is obviously a major factor.

    This shows (under "built up density") this metric across Europe. We should compare the death rates in similar countries to each other. (Credit to Alistair Rae in CityMetric)

    That’s why saying 1% of New York dying from it shouldn’t be taken as meaning the death rate is 1% in my opinion, esp when you add in pollution.
    Well, the death rate there is currently 0.1%, which does mean 0.1% of NY has died of it.
    If one in a hundred New Yorkers, regardless of where they live in New York, have died, then 1% of New Yorkers have died.

    It does mean that these deaths would be likely to be more concentrated in the denser areas, indeed, but there, more than 0.1% of the population there have died of it.

    Sorry my mistake for not being clear, I meant if 1% of New Yorkers die of it it doesn’t mean the worldwide death rate is 1%.

    Densely populated + awful air pollution... are there cities/towns/villages without these factors that have had worse than average covid-19 outcomes? (Not Care Homes)
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,751

    When comparing the experience between countries, how packed in people are in built-up areas is obviously a major factor.

    This shows (under "built up density") this metric across Europe. We should compare the death rates in similar countries to each other. (Credit to Alistair Rae in CityMetric)

    So Sweden in with Norway, Finland, Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania and Ireland?

    Hmm.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    nunu2 said:
    Thankfully that is now the ultimate hypothetical
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,514
    Latest data



  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,006
    "Germany begins reopening shops and schools"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-52349779
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,169
    MaxPB said:

    eadric said:
    Yes, the major issue with coronabonds for Merkel is that they haven't got democratic consent. They need treaty change which means a whole round of crap that no one wants.
    A rushed-through EU treaty change is pretty much inevitable from here IMO, which is probably the best argument given for the UK transition not being extended.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,347
    edited April 2020
    Andy_JS said:

    "Germany begins reopening shops and schools"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-52349779

    Just looking at Denmark,

    Reopening schools - OK
    Dentists - very sensible
    Tattoo parlours - YOU WHAT!!!!

    You can't go to a cafe, restaurant or bar, but you can get a full sleeve done.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,751
    nunu2 said:
    I see all the Bettertogetherness apparently brought about the virus hasn't extended to Scotland's feelings about the EU.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,160
    Generally, Swedes like to play the long game and right now we’re thinking about the state of play two, five or even 10 years from now. It’s not just about beating the virus, it’s about coming out of the crisis healthy.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/destinations/europe/sweden/articles/sweden-coronavirus-policy/
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,411
    eadric said:

    MaxPB said:

    eadric said:
    Yes, the major issue with coronabonds for Merkel is that they haven't got democratic consent. They need treaty change which means a whole round of crap that no one wants.
    Indeed. I believe mutualised debt is explicitly forbidden in the Lisbon Treaty.

    So they'd have to get every government in the EU27 to do all that first, with referendums, in places like Ireland.

    What a mess.

    Said exclusion was explicitly added to the Treaty, because in several countries - including Germany - it was politically impossible otherwise.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 17,973

    When comparing the experience between countries, how packed in people are in built-up areas is obviously a major factor.

    This shows (under "built up density") this metric across Europe. We should compare the death rates in similar countries to each other.

    The problem with this is regional variation - parts of London are MegaCity One. Parts of the UK, there is no-one to the visible horizon.
    The analysis in the table accounts for that, and also the empty places don't matter if there aren't many people living there - hence the "lived density" which seems to be a density of where people live.

    England has also been separated from Scotland which further helps.

    From the table it perhaps helps to explain why Spain has suffered so badly. The Ireland comparison with England is not so good in this context. Comparing France to England also not to the benefit of France. Belgium looks to have done a *lot* worse than the Netherlands.

    So far, of course.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,705
    isam said:

    When comparing the experience between countries, how packed in people are in built-up areas is obviously a major factor.

    This shows (under "built up density") this metric across Europe. We should compare the death rates in similar countries to each other. (Credit to Alistair Rae in CityMetric)

    That’s why saying 1% of New York dying from it shouldn’t be taken as meaning the death rate is 1% in my opinion, esp when you add in pollution.
    "in my opinion"
  • ukpaulukpaul Posts: 649
    edited April 2020

    When comparing the experience between countries, how packed in people are in built-up areas is obviously a major factor.

    This shows (under "built up density") this metric across Europe. We should compare the death rates in similar countries to each other. (Credit to Alistair Rae in CityMetric)

    Really useful and generally there appears to be a decent correlation with some aspects here (ameliorated by the start time of any lockdown) and severity.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,518
    eadric said:

    nunu2 said:
    I see all the Bettertogetherness apparently brought about the virus hasn't extended to Scotland's feelings about the EU.
    That's a large shift in opinion to "it was right to leave the EU"

    It looks like the troubles in the EZ are percolating into public consciousness already.
    I also think people are seeing that the crisis may result in trillions of euros pouring into Southern Europe being paid for by the rest of the bloc (potentially including non-EMU nations). That is a huge motivator for not staying in.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,751
    eadric said:

    nunu2 said:
    I see all the Bettertogetherness apparently brought about the virus hasn't extended to Scotland's feelings about the EU.
    That's a large shift in opinion to "it was right to leave the EU"

    It looks like the troubles in the EZ are percolating into public consciousness already.
    Q1 In hindsight, do you think Britain was right or wrong to leave the EU?

    Scotland

    Right to leave 37
    Wrong to leave 63
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,705
    isam said:

    isam said:

    When comparing the experience between countries, how packed in people are in built-up areas is obviously a major factor.

    This shows (under "built up density") this metric across Europe. We should compare the death rates in similar countries to each other. (Credit to Alistair Rae in CityMetric)

    That’s why saying 1% of New York dying from it shouldn’t be taken as meaning the death rate is 1% in my opinion, esp when you add in pollution.
    Well, the death rate there is currently 0.1%, which does mean 0.1% of NY has died of it.
    If one in a hundred New Yorkers, regardless of where they live in New York, have died, then 1% of New Yorkers have died.

    It does mean that these deaths would be likely to be more concentrated in the denser areas, indeed, but there, more than 0.1% of the population there have died of it.

    Sorry my mistake for not being clear, I meant if 1% of New Yorkers die of it it doesn’t mean the worldwide death rate is 1%.

    Densely populated + awful air pollution... are there cities/towns/villages without these factors that have had worse than average covid-19 outcomes? (Not Care Homes)
    If X that doesn't mean Y, particularly as not X?

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,347
    edited April 2020
    MaxPB said:

    eadric said:

    nunu2 said:
    I see all the Bettertogetherness apparently brought about the virus hasn't extended to Scotland's feelings about the EU.
    That's a large shift in opinion to "it was right to leave the EU"

    It looks like the troubles in the EZ are percolating into public consciousness already.
    I also think people are seeing that the crisis may result in trillions of euros pouring into Southern Europe being paid for by the rest of the bloc (potentially including non-EMU nations). That is a huge motivator for not staying in.
    I presume any sensible EU plan would be to pile money into Southern Europe to create industries that are vital at times of crisis. Subsidising the on-shoring of things like manufacturing of vital items seems like a win-win in terms of getting employment to hard hit regions of Italy, decrease exposure to reliance on China and increase popularity of the EU among its citizens.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,269
    DougSeal said:

    Nigelb said:

    Not much social distancing going on here....

    https://twitter.com/GranadaReports/status/1251834056859439107

    The majority of police officers do a difficult job very well. But this should be required viewing for anyone who (a) advocates the return of the death penalty, (b) supports Legal Aid abolition/cuts, (c) dismisses the concept of civil/human rights, (d) reads the Mail, (e) slags off criminal defence lawyers, (f) accepts the evidence of the police unquestioningly...I could go on...how often has this happened without a videoing smartphone nearby?

    This PC should be fired. I don't often say that kind of thing.
    All the cases where this officer gave evidence should be looked at. Unless you’re willing to believe that this was the first time he ever thought of “making stuff up”. The frightening aspect is the arrogance contained in his statement about “Who they’re going to believe? You or me?” That arrogance will likely be shared by a few of his fellow officers. How many of them is the interesting question.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 17,973
    MaxPB said:

    DavidL said:

    MaxPB said:

    DavidL said:

    eadric said:

    eadric said:

    eadric said:

    Floater said:
    Those riots are quite quite different to the normal French farmers dumping manure on a minister.

    These are the bainlieues rising up. Potentially disastrous

    There are two sides to this. French police are brutal and the state does a bad job of integrating, but there are also loads of videos of the BAME communities in the French suburbs completely ignoring the lockdown and laughing at police trying to enforce it.

    A collision was inevitable
    While we are very down on the prospects for the UK. France is a very troubled country. Even before CV huge social issues and econmic issues, and unlike Germany or UK, a very rigid labour market and a people who won't accept even modest reform.
    Actually macron’s reforms were just starting to pay off as this virus hit. Check the stats on new business starts in the last couple of years. A huge surge. This bug came at just the wrong moment.

    If you want to see real trouble in Europe look further south, to Italy

    https://twitter.com/eurobriefing/status/1251904484269309952?s=21

    The article is good but what’s truly fascinating is the comment section underneath. It is full of Dutch, French, German and Italian readers all laying into each other. The insults between the Italians and the Dutch are particularly savage. The Dutch accuse the Italians of being feckless thieves, the Italians say the Dutch are soulless hypocrites.

    A mighty storm is brewing in the eurozone. They need coronabonds to weather it, but the Dutch and probably the Germans won’t allow this. Something has to give. The Italians might default
    'A mighty storm is brewing in the eurozone'

    I'm overwhelmed by a wearying wave of déjà vu.

    Fwiw Agnès Poirier on Start the Week this am said that coronabonds were very likely to come about, mainly because polling showed that the German populace were very much in favour of them.
    You're not normally this dim.

    There's more chance of me staying sober through lockdown than of Coronabonds ever happening. They just won't do it. A few random opinion polls will not convince Dutch German (and Finnish and Austrian) politicians to commit electoral suicide. Because that's what it would be.

    As one Dutch commenter says in that thread: why should I let my government take my life savings to bail our Italians who won't pay tax.

    It's a fair question, and the only answer is: the Dutch government won't do that, as the next thing would be Geert Wilders as prime minister.

    If you like we can have a bet on whether coronabonds happen. £100?
    FWIW I think that there will be Corona bonds eventually. The alternative is the collapse of the EZ economy with catastrophic consequences for Germany and Holland as well as the others. It will just be a bit late and a bit on the small side and create yet more bitterness as a result.
    I'd be very surprised if there were coronabonds or any kind of overt/non-ECB debt pooling. Northern Europe would rather kick Italy out of the Euro.
    That will be their instinctive response. And then they will run the numbers....
    Yes, they will and I think they'd rather bail out their banks than the Italian public.
    One of the psychological factors at play is lack of control.

    If they bail out German banks they may feel they have some control over German banks in the future to try to avoid a repeat. If they bail out the Italian people, less so.

    You'd need a much greater degree of political (and administrative/legal) integration. But even then, would that make Italy more like Germany, or Germany more like Italy?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,769
    edited April 2020

    When comparing the experience between countries, how packed in people are in built-up areas is obviously a major factor.

    This shows (under "built up density") this metric across Europe. We should compare the death rates in similar countries to each other.

    The problem with this is regional variation - parts of London are MegaCity One. Parts of the UK, there is no-one to the visible horizon.
    That's the point of that table. I should have explained further.

    (see the original article her: https://www.citymetric.com/fabric/these-maps-reveal-truth-about-population-density-across-europe-3625 )

    Spain, for example, has a low overall population density, but when you look at it further: "Spain contains within it more than 505,000 1km squares. But only 13 per cent of them are lived in. This means that the “lived density” for Spain is in fact 737 people per km², rather than 93. So even though the settlement pattern appears sparse, people are actually quite tightly packed together."

    So the "lived density" is the population density where the population actually lives.

    I think it needs tilting even more in urbanised countries towards a higher effective pop density

    Take a theoretical country of 3 square kilometres that consists of a farm of 1 person a large gap and then a square city of 1001 inhabitants. The farm is self sufficient and the resident does not need to head to the city, nor do the city residents need to head to the farm.

    The lived density would be given as 501 ppl/sq kilometre (1 sq k being empty) and actual density 334/sq km

    But 1001 people are experiencing a density of 1001 ppl/sq kilometre & 1 is experiencing a pop density of 1/square kilometre.

    So I'd argue the EFFECTIVE pop density is 1 (Our farmer) + 1001 + 1001 + 1001 + (998 more times)

    = 1 + 1001(1001) = 1002002/1002 (Total pop)

    = 1000 people per square kilometre (Population weighted population density). That's what you'd need to plan social distancing etc rules on.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,584

    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    .

    DavidL said:

    FF43 said:

    Looking at the data there are two critical government actions that have made a difference. The date the lockdown was stated and the amount of testing performed. On the first criteria the UK was about average and on the second well below average. The respirator issue has been a bit of a red herring as we have learnt they don't save that many patients overall. The PPE issue is important as it saves key worker lives but in the end as most isolation staff are young, fit and healthy the impact on death rates is fairly low. The care homes issue has also been an issue globally with no easy answers outside better testing.

    The net result is we are sitting in the bottom half of the table. Can the Government now do better? If we are too slow to ease lockdown our industry will be wiped out by competition and the pound will crash. If we don't manage it well we have a second outbreak. On a final point if we don't get our testing in place then no one in the UK will be going anywhere for a long time. Brexit will be true isolation as we become a leper colony.

    And another point. It's largely about the R figure. As we ease off restrictions, these will increase the R figure above 1 and the exponential increase starts again. We need to be significantly below 1 each time we ease off a restriction. At the moment we're probably on the nail. We have very little margin, and less than other countries that acted to control the epidemic sooner.
    If I was the government I would pinch Merkel's explanation of this verbatim. It would be a lot more useful than telling us yet again how much we admire/respect/want to thank today's particular heroes.
    I would rather they pinched the German testing regime.
    Why? I mean that I get that it is a convenient stick to beat the government with but what would 10x the current testing achieve? We would probably have a much lower death rate amongst those found to be positive but the death rate would be unchanged. We would have a better idea of the validity of the "iceberg" model but what would change so far as our policy is concerned? We could perhaps reduce the vector of health workers and care workers either being infected or infecting others but for NHS workers it is quite hard to say what else we could do.

    Testing was key in phase 1 which I accept we made a mess of by being slow out of the blocks. Now? I am not sure other than trying to confirm how many front line staff have immunity and can work more safely with patients.
    There has been and still is a wrong assumption that you cannot maintain a track and trace policy over a long term basis. Next week we will be introducing environmental test swabs that can identify 20 strands of COVID DNA / RNA and give a numeric on the level of COVID from the swab. To give some context the human body has 3000 trillion strands of DNA. This will allow the authorities to quickly identify any uptake in the virus well before it has become a big issue and start local lock downs.




    I'd be fascinated to learn what the long term plan is (until one of effective treatment, vaccine, herd immunity happens). Seems to me it's one or more of limited restrictions to keep infections per person to around 1 (i.e. at a manageable level with all daily trends flattish), cyclical easing and tightening of restrictions (for the same purpose of keeping things manageable) or a longer initial lockdown to really drop the numbers and then go hard on track and trace, with perhaps localised lockdowns as needed. Pros and cons to all approaches - all with different economic effects too - and calibrating easing of lockdown is not going to be an easy thing. Contact tracing most appealing as it lifts most restrictions, but needs a lot of resources and a sufficiently low initial number infected (or at least knowing exactly who is infected and isolating them - lots of testing).

    Again, it looks like we're a few weeks behind some other countries so will have at least some weeks of data as they begin to ease lockdowns to inform our own actions. Sweden also has the potential to be very informative, although we don't know how many have been infected there or (necessarily) how many deaths are being picked up - think we've only got hospital deaths for Sweden at the moment rather than regular all cause mortality stats?
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,527
    Cyclefree said:

    DougSeal said:

    Nigelb said:

    Not much social distancing going on here....

    https://twitter.com/GranadaReports/status/1251834056859439107

    The majority of police officers do a difficult job very well. But this should be required viewing for anyone who (a) advocates the return of the death penalty, (b) supports Legal Aid abolition/cuts, (c) dismisses the concept of civil/human rights, (d) reads the Mail, (e) slags off criminal defence lawyers, (f) accepts the evidence of the police unquestioningly...I could go on...how often has this happened without a videoing smartphone nearby?

    This PC should be fired. I don't often say that kind of thing.
    All the cases where this officer gave evidence should be looked at. Unless you’re willing to believe that this was the first time he ever thought of “making stuff up”. The frightening aspect is the arrogance contained in his statement about “Who they’re going to believe? You or me?” That arrogance will likely be shared by a few of his fellow officers. How many of them is the interesting question.
    For that very reason, if I were an enterprising criminal defence lawyer in the North West I would be doing some research and contacting defendants in such cases as we speak.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,073
    DougSeal said:

    Nigelb said:

    Not much social distancing going on here....

    https://twitter.com/GranadaReports/status/1251834056859439107

    The majority of police officers do a difficult job very well. But this should be required viewing for anyone who (a) advocates the return of the death penalty, (b) supports Legal Aid abolition/cuts, (c) dismisses the concept of civil/human rights, (d) reads the Mail, (e) slags off criminal defence lawyers, (f) accepts the evidence of the police unquestioningly...I could go on...how often has this happened without a videoing smartphone nearby?

    This PC should be fired. I don't often say that kind of thing.
    For "This PC should be fired" read "This PC must be fired". What a disgrace. On top of the terror of the virus itself, we mount terror upon terror.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,284

    Cyclefree said:

    Nigelb said:

    Not much social distancing going on here....

    https://twitter.com/GranadaReports/status/1251834056859439107

    Never mind an apology. I’d be interested in looking at cases where this officer has given evidence to see whether any of that was “made up”.

    You’d have to be very trusting to imagine that this was the first occasion that this concept occurred to this officer.

    Cyclefree said:

    ydoethur said:

    FF43 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Alistair said:

    Nigelb said:

    Blimey, a Telegraph article I am in 100% agreement with.
    And on topic, too.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/britain-can-avoid-second-peak-covid-19-restart-economy/
    ... The challenge for the Prime Minister is how to tread this middle path between lockdown and normalcy; how to make the number his epidemiologists give him work for Britain PLC.

    There are a number of prerequisites, the most important of which is getting a nationwide network of test and trace teams in place in order that new cases can be quickly detected and isolated.

    It’s a good idea to get people who volunteered as NHS helpers to do this, but perhaps managed by someone from Sandhurst rather than PHE.

    Concise public communications is also going to be vital. Telling everyone to stay put is one thing, a more nuanced message quite another.

    But this is not the same as treating us like fools....

    At least its ahowing a lot more sense than the Daily Jackboot.
    What the fuck is the "Daily Jackboot"? And what kind of twat uses that term?
    Hurrah for the Blackshirts
    It has always intrigued me that the Daily Mail is never allowed to forget its brief flirtation with Mosley while nobody ever mentions that the Daily Mirror was far more enthusiastic about them for far longer.
    Maybe it's the suspicion that the DM would still be supporting the black shirts if they were around now?
    The Daily Mirror supported Corbyn *innocent face*
    Or the Guardian having as one of its main columnists a man who supported Stalin. The tolerance of those who supported or excused the crimes of Communism is both baffling and morally repellent.
    It is possible to abhor both regimes.

    And not to excuse Stalin’s crimes one bit, I do wonder if without the iron grip he had on the USSR they would have been able, albeit after a disastrous 1941, to eventually beat Nazi Germany. Would it have been worse to see Stalin defeated with Hitler dominating Europe? Hitler would’ve then gone for the Middle East and into India, given half a chance. He wanted global domination, not just Eastern Europe.

    I obviously don’t know the answers, it’s just an interesting ’what if?...’
    Communism’s crimes predated Stalin and continued after his death.

    Even if a Stalin was needed to defeat Hitler, there is absolutely no reason to defend Stalin’s crimes or those of Communism - either before or after the war - let alone decades later.

    Communism was and is a vile ideology which has resulted in the death of millions, untold cruelties and the destruction of societies. It is every bit as morally repellent as fascism or nazism. I can see no good reason why any intelligent being would seek to excuse it or justify it.
    Not destroying Poland would have left a buffer between the Soviet Union and Germany. Germany took 5 weeks to conquer half of Poland - which was fighting a 2 front war at the end. So no possibility of surprise attack on the SU...
    Hitler wasn't necessarily noted for logic, though.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,347
    China's deputy public security minister, who was sent by Beijing to supervise the security affairs in Wuhan during the coronavirus epidemic, is being investigated by the country's main anti-corruption body, the authority has said.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8236195/Chinese-official-leading-coronavirus-operations-Wuhan-faces-corruption-probe.html
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,662
    Mr. Divvie, how does that vary from the result on the day? About the same?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,518
    eadric said:

    A truly brutal German article which dissects the new Italian "hatred" of Germany

    Sample paragraphs, Google translated:

    "According to the latest survey by the SWG Institute, 45 percent of Italians now see Germans as their worst enemies; France is in a good second place with 38 percent. Italy's "friends" are China with 52 percent and Russia with 32 percent. China has quintupled its response since January."

    "Germany helped the Corona crisis region of Lombardy early in an emergency. But gratitude does not dominate in Italy, but sheer hatred of the Germans. It is fueled by populists who prefer to split rather than take responsibility for their own mismanagement."

    https://www.n-tv.de/politik/In-Italien-kocht-die-Wut-auf-Hitlers-Enkel-article21725727.html

    It's amazing how quickly the Germans have taken our place as the general hate figure within the EU.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 17,973
    isam said:

    When comparing the experience between countries, how packed in people are in built-up areas is obviously a major factor.

    This shows (under "built up density") this metric across Europe. We should compare the death rates in similar countries to each other. (Credit to Alistair Rae in CityMetric)

    That’s why saying 1% of New York dying from it shouldn’t be taken as meaning the death rate is 1% in my opinion, esp when you add in pollution.
    I think the effect of population density is greater on the speed of spread of the infection, rather than on the fatality rate once infected.

    I think the New York numbers provide a lower bound for the fatality rate - particularly when you consider not everyone will have been infected there.
  • johnoundlejohnoundle Posts: 120
    DavidL said:

    eadric said:

    eadric said:

    eadric said:

    Floater said:
    Those riots are quite quite different to the normal French farmers dumping manure on a minister.

    These are the bainlieues rising up. Potentially disastrous

    There are two sides to this. French police are brutal and the state does a bad job of integrating, but there are also loads of videos of the BAME communities in the French suburbs completely ignoring the lockdown and laughing at police trying to enforce it.

    A collision was inevitable
    While we are very down on the prospects for the UK. France is a very troubled country. Even before CV huge social issues and econmic issues, and unlike Germany or UK, a very rigid labour market and a people who won't accept even modest reform.
    Actually macron’s reforms were just starting to pay off as this virus hit. Check the stats on new business starts in the last couple of years. A huge surge. This bug came at just the wrong moment.

    If you want to see real trouble in Europe look further south, to Italy

    https://twitter.com/eurobriefing/status/1251904484269309952?s=21

    The article is good but what’s truly fascinating is the comment section underneath. It is full of Dutch, French, German and Italian readers all laying into each other. The insults between the Italians and the Dutch are particularly savage. The Dutch accuse the Italians of being feckless thieves, the Italians say the Dutch are soulless hypocrites.

    A mighty storm is brewing in the eurozone. They need coronabonds to weather it, but the Dutch and probably the Germans won’t allow this. Something has to give. The Italians might default
    'A mighty storm is brewing in the eurozone'

    I'm overwhelmed by a wearying wave of déjà vu.

    Fwiw Agnès Poirier on Start the Week this am said that coronabonds were very likely to come about, mainly because polling showed that the German populace were very much in favour of them.
    You're not normally this dim.

    There's more chance of me staying sober through lockdown than of Coronabonds ever happening. They just won't do it. A few random opinion polls will not convince Dutch German (and Finnish and Austrian) politicians to commit electoral suicide. Because that's what it would be.

    As one Dutch commenter says in that thread: why should I let my government take my life savings to bail our Italians who won't pay tax.

    It's a fair question, and the only answer is: the Dutch government won't do that, as the next thing would be Geert Wilders as prime minister.

    If you like we can have a bet on whether coronabonds happen. £100?
    FWIW I think that there will be Corona bonds eventually. The alternative is the collapse of the EZ economy with catastrophic consequences for Germany and Holland as well as the others. It will just be a bit late and a bit on the small side and create yet more bitterness as a result.

    So a feckless company in say Italy will be allowed to borrow at very special interest rates / terms courtesy of corona bonds & undercut a well run Dutch competitor that is not being bailed out & borrows from their local bank at current commercial rates.

    What happened to the level playing field?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,160
    The Fight against COVID-19: An Update from Dr. Jay Bhattacharya

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k7v2F3usNVA

    If this guy's hypothesis is right and his tests of sample stack up then in the UK
    between 6 and 10 million people have had the virus.

    Big if obviously. But intriguing to say the least.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,531

    eadric said:

    nunu2 said:
    I see all the Bettertogetherness apparently brought about the virus hasn't extended to Scotland's feelings about the EU.
    That's a large shift in opinion to "it was right to leave the EU"

    It looks like the troubles in the EZ are percolating into public consciousness already.
    Q1 In hindsight, do you think Britain was right or wrong to leave the EU?

    Scotland

    Right to leave 37
    Wrong to leave 63
    The referendum question was about the WHOLE of the UK :)
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,903
    edited April 2020
    Cyclefree said:

    Communism was and is a vile ideology which has resulted in the death of millions, untold cruelties and the destruction of societies. It is every bit as morally repellent as fascism or nazism. I can see no good reason why any intelligent being would seek to excuse it or justify it.

    The ideology of Communism is not as morally repellent as Nazism. Not unless you view the common ownership of the means of production to be as appalling a belief as the right of the German master race to dominion over all others. Which I bet you don't. But one can make a case that attempts to implement Communism have in practice produced regimes of comparable wickedness to Nazi Germany.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,751

    Mr. Divvie, how does that vary from the result on the day? About the same?

    Approximately.

    More interestingly London has tended to be the most regretful of the Brexit vote regions. It seems (perhaps temporarily) that it's changed.
  • BannedinnParisBannedinnParis Posts: 1,884

    isam said:

    When comparing the experience between countries, how packed in people are in built-up areas is obviously a major factor.

    This shows (under "built up density") this metric across Europe. We should compare the death rates in similar countries to each other. (Credit to Alistair Rae in CityMetric)

    That’s why saying 1% of New York dying from it shouldn’t be taken as meaning the death rate is 1% in my opinion, esp when you add in pollution.
    I think the effect of population density is greater on the speed of spread of the infection, rather than on the fatality rate once infected.

    I think the New York numbers provide a lower bound for the fatality rate - particularly when you consider not everyone will have been infected there.
    what you might describe as kinetic vs thermodynamic control
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,347
    edited April 2020

    The Fight against COVID-19: An Update from Dr. Jay Bhattacharya

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k7v2F3usNVA

    If this guy's hypothesis is right and his tests of sample stack up then in the UK
    between 6 and 10 million people have had the virus.

    Big if obviously. But intriguing to say the least.

    6-7 million would obviously be 10% of the population. Latest Imperial model has it in a range of 3-6%. What we are seeing is a large difference across the country. I definitely can believe 10+% of London and Birmingham have contracted it.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,654
    DougSeal said:

    Nigelb said:

    Not much social distancing going on here....

    https://twitter.com/GranadaReports/status/1251834056859439107

    The majority of police officers do a difficult job very well. But this should be required viewing for anyone who (a) advocates the return of the death penalty, (b) supports Legal Aid abolition/cuts, (c) dismisses the concept of civil/human rights, (d) reads the Mail, (e) slags off criminal defence lawyers, (f) accepts the evidence of the police unquestioningly...I could go on...how often has this happened without a videoing smartphone nearby?

    This PC should be fired. I don't often say that kind of thing.
    When I was a young solicitor in Dundee there were certain cops, mainly in the CID, that the local Sheriff had found to be liars previously. Every time they were called to give evidence in a summary case (before the Sheriff alone) he would ostentatiously put down his pen and fold his arms, not recording any of the evidence. Sadly, very little was done about it.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Chris said:

    isam said:

    When comparing the experience between countries, how packed in people are in built-up areas is obviously a major factor.

    This shows (under "built up density") this metric across Europe. We should compare the death rates in similar countries to each other. (Credit to Alistair Rae in CityMetric)

    That’s why saying 1% of New York dying from it shouldn’t be taken as meaning the death rate is 1% in my opinion, esp when you add in pollution.
    "in my opinion"
    Yes, that’s right! “In my opinion”
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,347
    edited April 2020
    Sir Philip Rutnam has launched his legal action against Priti Patel.
  • Andy_JS said:

    "Germany begins reopening shops and schools"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-52349779

    Just looking at Denmark,

    Reopening schools - OK
    Dentists - very sensible
    Tattoo parlours - YOU WHAT!!!!

    You can't go to a cafe, restaurant or bar, but you can get a full sleeve done.
    What's the position for massage parlours?

    Just asking, fur ein Freund.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,769
    edited April 2020
    Stocky said:

    DougSeal said:

    Nigelb said:

    Not much social distancing going on here....

    https://twitter.com/GranadaReports/status/1251834056859439107

    The majority of police officers do a difficult job very well. But this should be required viewing for anyone who (a) advocates the return of the death penalty, (b) supports Legal Aid abolition/cuts, (c) dismisses the concept of civil/human rights, (d) reads the Mail, (e) slags off criminal defence lawyers, (f) accepts the evidence of the police unquestioningly...I could go on...how often has this happened without a videoing smartphone nearby?

    This PC should be fired. I don't often say that kind of thing.
    For "This PC should be fired" read "This PC must be fired". What a disgrace. On top of the terror of the virus itself, we mount terror upon terror.
    I'm not sure what went on before, but the police officer is right in his face - which seems suboptimal for viral transmission.
  • Priti Patel is facing legal action under whistleblowing laws after her former permanent secretary Sir Philip Rutnam lodged an employment tribunal claim on Monday saying he was forced from his job for exposing her bullying behaviour.

    Rutnam claims he was constructively dismissed from his role as Home Office permanent secretary after informing the Cabinet Office that Patel had belittled officials in meetings and made unreasonable demands on staff.

    The development will increase pressure on Patel, who has denied claims that she bullied civil servants across three government departments, and on Boris Johnson, who has publicly backed his home secretary. She is also the subject of a Cabinet Office inquiry into her behaviour.


    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/apr/20/priti-patel-bullying-row-ex-home-office-chief-philip-rutnam-launches-tribunal-claim?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited April 2020
    Chris said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    When comparing the experience between countries, how packed in people are in built-up areas is obviously a major factor.

    This shows (under "built up density") this metric across Europe. We should compare the death rates in similar countries to each other. (Credit to Alistair Rae in CityMetric)

    That’s why saying 1% of New York dying from it shouldn’t be taken as meaning the death rate is 1% in my opinion, esp when you add in pollution.
    Well, the death rate there is currently 0.1%, which does mean 0.1% of NY has died of it.
    If one in a hundred New Yorkers, regardless of where they live in New York, have died, then 1% of New Yorkers have died.

    It does mean that these deaths would be likely to be more concentrated in the denser areas, indeed, but there, more than 0.1% of the population there have died of it.

    Sorry my mistake for not being clear, I meant if 1% of New Yorkers die of it it doesn’t mean the worldwide death rate is 1%.

    Densely populated + awful air pollution... are there cities/towns/villages without these factors that have had worse than average covid-19 outcomes? (Not Care Homes)
    If X that doesn't mean Y, particularly as not X?

    Can’t bothered with angry misery today
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Sandpit said:

    eadric said:

    eadric said:

    eadric said:

    Floater said:
    Those riots are quite quite different to the normal French farmers dumping manure on a minister.

    These are the bainlieues rising up. Potentially disastrous

    There are two sides to this. French police are brutal and the state does a bad job of integrating, but there are also loads of videos of the BAME communities in the French suburbs completely ignoring the lockdown and laughing at police trying to enforce it.

    A collision was inevitable
    While we are very down on the prospects for the UK. France is a very troubled country. Even before CV huge social issues and econmic issues, and unlike Germany or UK, a very rigid labour market and a people who won't accept even modest reform.
    Actually macron’s reforms were just starting to pay off as this virus hit. Check the stats on new business starts in the last couple of years. A huge surge. This bug came at just the wrong moment.

    If you want to see real trouble in Europe look further south, to Italy

    https://twitter.com/eurobriefing/status/1251904484269309952?s=21

    The article is good but what’s truly fascinating is the comment section underneath. It is full of Dutch, French, German and Italian readers all laying into each other. The insults between the Italians and the Dutch are particularly savage. The Dutch accuse the Italians of being feckless thieves, the Italians say the Dutch are soulless hypocrites.

    A mighty storm is brewing in the eurozone. They need coronabonds to weather it, but the Dutch and probably the Germans won’t allow this. Something has to give. The Italians might default
    'A mighty storm is brewing in the eurozone'

    I'm overwhelmed by a wearying wave of déjà vu.

    Fwiw Agnès Poirier on Start the Week this am said that coronabonds were likely to come about, mainly because polling showed that the German populace were very much in favour of them.

    What matters is getting it approved by the Bundestag & Merkel has said on numerous occasions no coronabonds.
    Likewise the Austrian and Dutch finance ministers have flatly refused mutualised debt.

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-eu-bluemel/austria-says-eu-deal-should-not-be-a-back-door-to-coronabonds-idUSKCN21R3HK

    So bonds per se won't happen. Not least because Germany, Austria and Holland are all likely to be in deep recession for a while, as their export sectors take an enormous hit.

    What, then, will happen? Italy is tottering...
    Mutualised Eurozone bonds *HAVE* to happen for the EZ to survive, the lack of political support for them in Germany, Austria and the Netherlands risks undoing the whole project. They should have been more careful about the countries admitted to the Euro in the first place, but now they are where they are and need to do something about it.

    Oh, and Spain, Italy and Greece rely heavily on the tourist industry for revenue, things in those three countries are going to get a whole lot worse before they start to get better.
    I agree with that post, but I don't want to "like" it...
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,347
    edited April 2020

    Priti Patel is facing legal action under whistleblowing laws after her former permanent secretary Sir Philip Rutnam lodged an employment tribunal claim on Monday saying he was forced from his job for exposing her bullying behaviour.

    Rutnam claims he was constructively dismissed from his role as Home Office permanent secretary after informing the Cabinet Office that Patel had belittled officials in meetings and made unreasonable demands on staff.

    The development will increase pressure on Patel, who has denied claims that she bullied civil servants across three government departments, and on Boris Johnson, who has publicly backed his home secretary. She is also the subject of a Cabinet Office inquiry into her behaviour.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/apr/20/priti-patel-bullying-row-ex-home-office-chief-philip-rutnam-launches-tribunal-claim?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

    In all honesty, does anybody give a crap about this story at the moment?

    I have no real idea why Patel and Frank Spencer are in the cabinet. I imagine they will be getting reshuffled when the first wave has passed.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    ukpaul said:

    When comparing the experience between countries, how packed in people are in built-up areas is obviously a major factor.

    This shows (under "built up density") this metric across Europe. We should compare the death rates in similar countries to each other. (Credit to Alistair Rae in CityMetric)

    Really useful and generally there appears to be a decent correlation with some aspects here (ameliorated by the start time of any lockdown) and severity.
    How come France is so bad?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,576
    DougSeal said:

    Nigelb said:

    Not much social distancing going on here....

    https://twitter.com/GranadaReports/status/1251834056859439107

    The majority of police officers do a difficult job very well. But this should be required viewing for anyone who (a) advocates the return of the death penalty, (b) supports Legal Aid abolition/cuts, (c) dismisses the concept of civil/human rights, (d) reads the Mail, (e) slags off criminal defence lawyers, (f) accepts the evidence of the police unquestioningly...I could go on...how often has this happened without a videoing smartphone nearby?

    This PC should be fired. I don't often say that kind of thing.
    It's also an instance where it doesnt matter much if he had any intention to make stuff up or not. Threatening to do it without meaning it would not be much of a defence.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,654

    DavidL said:

    eadric said:

    eadric said:

    eadric said:

    Floater said:
    Those riots are quite quite different to the normal French farmers dumping manure on a minister.

    These are the bainlieues rising up. Potentially disastrous

    There are two sides to this. French police are brutal and the state does a bad job of integrating, but there are also loads of videos of the BAME communities in the French suburbs completely ignoring the lockdown and laughing at police trying to enforce it.

    A collision was inevitable
    While we are very down on the prospects for the UK. France is a very troubled country. Even before CV huge social issues and econmic issues, and unlike Germany or UK, a very rigid labour market and a people who won't accept even modest reform.
    Actually macron’s reforms were just starting to pay off as this virus hit. Check the stats on new business starts in the last couple of years. A huge surge. This bug came at just the wrong moment.

    If you want to see real trouble in Europe look further south, to Italy

    https://twitter.com/eurobriefing/status/1251904484269309952?s=21

    The article is good but what’s truly fascinating is the comment section underneath. It is full of Dutch, French, German and Italian readers all laying into each other. The insults between the Italians and the Dutch are particularly savage. The Dutch accuse the Italians of being feckless thieves, the Italians say the Dutch are soulless hypocrites.

    A mighty storm is brewing in the eurozone. They need coronabonds to weather it, but the Dutch and probably the Germans won’t allow this. Something has to give. The Italians might default
    'A mighty storm is brewing in the eurozone'

    I'm overwhelmed by a wearying wave of déjà vu.

    Fwiw Agnès Poirier on Start the Week this am said that coronabonds were very likely to come about, mainly because polling showed that the German populace were very much in favour of them.
    You're not normally this dim.

    There's more chance of me staying sober through lockdown than of Coronabonds ever happening. They just won't do it. A few random opinion polls will not convince Dutch German (and Finnish and Austrian) politicians to commit electoral suicide. Because that's what it would be.

    As one Dutch commenter says in that thread: why should I let my government take my life savings to bail our Italians who won't pay tax.

    It's a fair question, and the only answer is: the Dutch government won't do that, as the next thing would be Geert Wilders as prime minister.

    If you like we can have a bet on whether coronabonds happen. £100?
    FWIW I think that there will be Corona bonds eventually. The alternative is the collapse of the EZ economy with catastrophic consequences for Germany and Holland as well as the others. It will just be a bit late and a bit on the small side and create yet more bitterness as a result.

    So a feckless company in say Italy will be allowed to borrow at very special interest rates / terms courtesy of corona bonds & undercut a well run Dutch competitor that is not being bailed out & borrows from their local bank at current commercial rates.

    What happened to the level playing field?
    The borrowing and the spending will be at government level, not the level of individual firms. Of course since all State support rules are likely to be binned this may still have the effect that you describe but the alternative is complete ruination in Italy leading ultimately to a failed state.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,188
    edited April 2020

    Priti Patel is facing legal action under whistleblowing laws after her former permanent secretary Sir Philip Rutnam lodged an employment tribunal claim on Monday saying he was forced from his job for exposing her bullying behaviour.

    Rutnam claims he was constructively dismissed from his role as Home Office permanent secretary after informing the Cabinet Office that Patel had belittled officials in meetings and made unreasonable demands on staff.

    The development will increase pressure on Patel, who has denied claims that she bullied civil servants across three government departments, and on Boris Johnson, who has publicly backed his home secretary. She is also the subject of a Cabinet Office inquiry into her behaviour.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/apr/20/priti-patel-bullying-row-ex-home-office-chief-philip-rutnam-launches-tribunal-claim?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

    In all honesty, does anybody give a crap about this story at the moment?

    I have no real idea why Patel and Frank Spencer are in the cabinet. I imagine they will be getting reshuffled when the first wave has passed.
    As with the Lancashire rozzer we don’t lying bullies anywhere near power.

    Patel is the sort of Home Secretary that will be proud about repeatedly acting ultra vires.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,527

    Priti Patel is facing legal action under whistleblowing laws after her former permanent secretary Sir Philip Rutnam lodged an employment tribunal claim on Monday saying he was forced from his job for exposing her bullying behaviour.

    Rutnam claims he was constructively dismissed from his role as Home Office permanent secretary after informing the Cabinet Office that Patel had belittled officials in meetings and made unreasonable demands on staff.

    The development will increase pressure on Patel, who has denied claims that she bullied civil servants across three government departments, and on Boris Johnson, who has publicly backed his home secretary. She is also the subject of a Cabinet Office inquiry into her behaviour.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/apr/20/priti-patel-bullying-row-ex-home-office-chief-philip-rutnam-launches-tribunal-claim?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

    In all honesty, does anybody give a crap about this story at the moment?

    I have no real idea why Patel and Frank Spencer are in the cabinet. I imagine they will be getting reshuffled when the first wave has passed.
    I do, then again I’m an employment lawyer
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,769
    I think the Lancashire police officer needs to go in that tweet, and I say that as someone who is generally on the side of the police.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,518
    isam said:

    ukpaul said:

    When comparing the experience between countries, how packed in people are in built-up areas is obviously a major factor.

    This shows (under "built up density") this metric across Europe. We should compare the death rates in similar countries to each other. (Credit to Alistair Rae in CityMetric)

    Really useful and generally there appears to be a decent correlation with some aspects here (ameliorated by the start time of any lockdown) and severity.
    How come France is so bad?
    France is counting estimated deaths in care homes, the rest of European countries aren't in the daily stats. It means the numbers of deaths is around 60-80% higher than just hospital deaths.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,411

    Cyclefree said:

    Nigelb said:

    Not much social distancing going on here....

    https://twitter.com/GranadaReports/status/1251834056859439107

    Never mind an apology. I’d be interested in looking at cases where this officer has given evidence to see whether any of that was “made up”.

    You’d have to be very trusting to imagine that this was the first occasion that this concept occurred to this officer.

    Cyclefree said:

    ydoethur said:

    FF43 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Alistair said:

    Nigelb said:

    Blimey, a Telegraph article I am in 100% agreement with.
    And on topic, too.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/britain-can-avoid-second-peak-covid-19-restart-economy/
    ... The challenge for the Prime Minister is how to tread this middle path between lockdown and normalcy; how to make the number his epidemiologists give him work for Britain PLC.

    There are a number of prerequisites, the most important of which is getting a nationwide network of test and trace teams in place in order that new cases can be quickly detected and isolated.

    It’s a good idea to get people who volunteered as NHS helpers to do this, but perhaps managed by someone from Sandhurst rather than PHE.

    Concise public communications is also going to be vital. Telling everyone to stay put is one thing, a more nuanced message quite another.

    But this is not the same as treating us like fools....

    At least its ahowing a lot more sense than the Daily Jackboot.
    What the fuck is the "Daily Jackboot"? And what kind of twat uses that term?
    Hurrah for the Blackshirts
    It has always intrigued me that the Daily Mail is never allowed to forget its brief flirtation with Mosley while nobody ever mentions that the Daily Mirror was far more enthusiastic about them for far longer.
    Maybe it's the suspicion that the DM would still be supporting the black shirts if they were around now?
    The Daily Mirror supported Corbyn *innocent face*
    Or the Guardian having as one of its main columnists a man who supported Stalin. The tolerance of those who supported or excused the crimes of Communism is both baffling and morally repellent.
    It is possible to abhor both regimes.

    And not to excuse Stalin’s crimes one bit, I do wonder if without the iron grip he had on the USSR they would have been able, albeit after a disastrous 1941, to eventually beat Nazi Germany. Would it have been worse to see Stalin defeated with Hitler dominating Europe? Hitler would’ve then gone for the Middle East and into India, given half a chance. He wanted global domination, not just Eastern Europe.

    I obviously don’t know the answers, it’s just an interesting ’what if?...’
    Communism’s crimes predated Stalin and continued after his death.

    Even if a Stalin was needed to defeat Hitler, there is absolutely no reason to defend Stalin’s crimes or those of Communism - either before or after the war - let alone decades later.

    Communism was and is a vile ideology which has resulted in the death of millions, untold cruelties and the destruction of societies. It is every bit as morally repellent as fascism or nazism. I can see no good reason why any intelligent being would seek to excuse it or justify it.
    Not destroying Poland would have left a buffer between the Soviet Union and Germany. Germany took 5 weeks to conquer half of Poland - which was fighting a 2 front war at the end. So no possibility of surprise attack on the SU...
    Hitler wasn't necessarily noted for logic, though.
    True - but a couple of months warning of "The Germans Are Coming" would have been quite useful. As opposed to zero...
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Andy_JS said:

    France has a more stringent lock-down than the UK yet their numbers are worse than ours. That may be because they're including care homes in their data while we aren't.

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

    The UK has 4,000 more hospital deaths than France and is supposed to be at least a week behind . It’s only when you add on care home deaths in France that the UK looks better . It looks like too many Brits are waiting too long to call for help and by the time they get to hospital their condition has deteriorated much more . In France if your condition worsens you ring for ambulance , in the UK you call 111. How good is their advice ? Are they directing people in time to call an ambulance.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,654

    Priti Patel is facing legal action under whistleblowing laws after her former permanent secretary Sir Philip Rutnam lodged an employment tribunal claim on Monday saying he was forced from his job for exposing her bullying behaviour.

    Rutnam claims he was constructively dismissed from his role as Home Office permanent secretary after informing the Cabinet Office that Patel had belittled officials in meetings and made unreasonable demands on staff.

    The development will increase pressure on Patel, who has denied claims that she bullied civil servants across three government departments, and on Boris Johnson, who has publicly backed his home secretary. She is also the subject of a Cabinet Office inquiry into her behaviour.


    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/apr/20/priti-patel-bullying-row-ex-home-office-chief-philip-rutnam-launches-tribunal-claim?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

    I am absolutely not a fan of Priti Patel but you begin to wonder if she had a point.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,531
    edited April 2020

    Cyclefree said:

    ydoethur said:

    FF43 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Alistair said:

    Nigelb said:

    Blimey, a Telegraph article I am in 100% agreement with.
    And on topic, too.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/britain-can-avoid-second-peak-covid-19-restart-economy/
    ... The challenge for the Prime Minister is how to tread this middle path between lockdown and normalcy; how to make the number his epidemiologists give him work for Britain PLC.

    There are a number of prerequisites, the most important of which is getting a nationwide network of test and trace teams in place in order that new cases can be quickly detected and isolated.

    It’s a good idea to get people who volunteered as NHS helpers to do this, but perhaps managed by someone from Sandhurst rather than PHE.

    Concise public communications is also going to be vital. Telling everyone to stay put is one thing, a more nuanced message quite another.

    But this is not the same as treating us like fools....

    At least its ahowing a lot more sense than the Daily Jackboot.
    What the fuck is the "Daily Jackboot"? And what kind of twat uses that term?
    Hurrah for the Blackshirts
    It has always intrigued me that the Daily Mail is never allowed to forget its brief flirtation with Mosley while nobody ever mentions that the Daily Mirror was far more enthusiastic about them for far longer.
    Maybe it's the suspicion that the DM would still be supporting the black shirts if they were around now?
    The Daily Mirror supported Corbyn *innocent face*
    Or the Guardian having as one of its main columnists a man who supported Stalin. The tolerance of those who supported or excused the crimes of Communism is both baffling and morally repellent.
    It is possible to abhor both regimes.

    And not to excuse Stalin’s crimes one bit, I do wonder if without the iron grip he had on the USSR they would have been able, albeit after a disastrous 1941, to eventually beat Nazi Germany. Would it have been worse to see Stalin defeated with Hitler dominating Europe? Hitler would’ve then gone for the Middle East and into India, given half a chance. He wanted global domination, not just Eastern Europe.

    I obviously don’t know the answers, it’s just an interesting ’what if?...’
    Nah, the Japanese would have taken most of British India, leaving what is today Pakistan to the Germans:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Axis_powers_negotiations_on_the_division_of_Asia

    image
This discussion has been closed.