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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Johnson pours cold water on the idea of a early end to the shu
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Johnson pours cold water on the idea of a early end to the shutdown
With Boris still convalescing after his bout of the virus there have been mixed messages over the weekend about what the government intends to do. First there were reports that we were going to see a partial return to the normal state over a period of months with primary schools going back in a fortnight being the first step. Then it was being briefed that we’d see c would bigger Range of shops to remain open.
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That may apply to those newly unemployed and on UC claims too.
Or not.
Also there's a young lady I'm getting quite fond of, who lives 150 miles away. I've not seen her for around 6 weeks now, and whilst playing board games together over video calls is better than nothing, I'd rather get to see her in person.
The whole thing is saving me quite a lot of money (most on my petrol bill, and not buying lunch out), so despite my being furloughed and on 80% of wages, I'm ending up with a modist extra monthly surplus, but it's a miserable experience non-the-less.
"What have five weeks (I started early) of social isolation taught me? First, that hot-desking is dead, thank God. The idea that you should be forced to spend today at the desk where yesterday Eunice from Chemistry was hacking up her lungs (“Some sort of 24 hour thing”) will be illegal by the end of next year. Everyone who was part of the “abolish private office space” movement should be forced to march through the streets — at two metres separation — with a placard round their necks saying “Sorry for our unwarranted attack on human dignity”."
https://unherd.com/2020/04/i-dont-want-life-to-go-back-to-normal/
The number appears to have been revised back downwards to 410 - broadly similar to recent days.
https://tinyurl.com/yaano6kx
Novak Djokovic says his opposition to vaccinations may get in the way of his return to competitive tennis.
“Personally I am opposed to vaccination and I wouldn’t want to be forced by someone to take a vaccine in order to be able to travel,” the world No 1 said in a live Facebook chat with several fellow Serbian athletes on Sunday.
On Monday it announced 13 new infections, bringing the nation’s total infections to 10,674.
On Sunday the country reported single-digit figures (8) of new cases, for the first time in two months. The country’s centre for disease control said seven of those cases came from overseas.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52345177
https://twitter.com/kevin/status/1251585143908691968
And on topic, too.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/britain-can-avoid-second-peak-covid-19-restart-economy/
... The challenge for the Prime Minister is how to tread this middle path between lockdown and normalcy; how to make the number his epidemiologists give him work for Britain PLC.
There are a number of prerequisites, the most important of which is getting a nationwide network of test and trace teams in place in order that new cases can be quickly detected and isolated.
It’s a good idea to get people who volunteered as NHS helpers to do this, but perhaps managed by someone from Sandhurst rather than PHE.
Concise public communications is also going to be vital. Telling everyone to stay put is one thing, a more nuanced message quite another.
But this is not the same as treating us like fools....
I dare say that, given that I'm spending nothing on going out, new clothes and other treats anymore, my bank balance is gradually getting fatter. So long as my job is safe that may continue to be the case for a long time: after all, our incarceration may last for so long that few outlets will have survived in which to make discretionary spending by the time the restrictions finally begin to be lifted.
Most European countries are starting to lift some restrictions now.
What's interesting to consider is the manner of the lockdown being gradually lifted. I'd guess it'll vary according to vulnerability (age/medical conditions) but I wonder if it'll either be lifted or a re-imposition will be stricter on cities.
There are regular reports/speculation in the newspapers to the effect that older and medically vulnerable people will be made to lock themselves away for a year/eighteen months/until there's a vaccine/for the rest of their lives. None of this is realistic. Once this disaster has been ongoing for long enough, and the numbers of deaths and hospitalisations has been squashed down to a sufficiently low level, then I'm quite sure that people will venture out to make more visits to family and friends (regardless of whatever regulations are still in force at the time.)
Firstly there is an issue here of quality as well as quantity of life; secondly, to be blunt, there will come a point when a lot of people who are very old and/or in ill health reason that their chances of dying of something other than the virus whilst still observing lockdown are probably greater than those of dying prematurely of the virus itself, and that they might as well therefore roll the dice and enjoy being with people they love again.
As with the health versus economy dilemma, so there is also a health versus quality of life dilemma. There's clearly going to be no magic bullet solution to this disease in the next few weeks, so absent that governments and individuals will find their way towards a compromise that they can tolerate. Shielding for twelve weeks is going to knock the stuffing out of people as it is: they're not going to keep doing it indefinitely.
That has repercussions for all of us.
If they are registered in another tax domain, let that place bail them out. If an essential company for some reason, buy up the assets at firesale prices upon liquidation.
Companies need to learn the financial cost of off shoring, as well as the effect on stability of manufacturing chains.
Noone will speak to you at Scottish Widows. The other day i was blanked by Vodafone.. they are all in the same boat.
They're an exemplar.
We could have saved thousands of lives if we'd had the humility to learn from our betters.
Seriously though, while we're used to communicating with family members on different continents, technology only provides a partial answer and in emergency, particularly if one of us was obviously coming to the end of our lives, I suspect those of our descendants who could would try to physically visit.
The crunch will co e when the furlough scheme ends, and a lot of people move from earning £2k a month in support to the more usual unemployment benefit and universal credit.
Into line with the one we have here. I don’t see how easing things is workable until we have a better handle on tracing and testing.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-52346447
I think we can take the banana fondlers so lets do this.
they've hired a group accommodation type place (sole hire).
the Danish regulations seem very confusing but essentially it seems that you can't meet in groups of more than 10 people except this doesn't apply to private homes including those hired, and you can still go camping, etc.
https://politi.dk/en/coronavirus-in-denmark/extension-of-measures-during-the-covid19-outbreak-in-denmark
the upshot of this is 'no refund' on the hire fee....
So, no wonder you are infected by bitterness.
https://gofile.io/?c=tShowr
Essentially London deaths are down possibly as much as 50%, but e.g. the NW not so much. The SW never got into 'mass deaths' in the first place.....
https://twitter.com/timkmak/status/1251936242834563073?s=19
“ On Monday, in Germany small shops will be allowed to open and schools will resume for those classes that have graduation exams coming up.
Last week Berlin said the infection rate had slowed and that the outbreak was under control - while warning that people had to remain vigilant to avoid a second wave of infections.
Also from Monday, Poland will re-open parks and forests and in Norway, nursery schools will reopen their doors to children. The Czech Republic will allow open-air markets to trade and in Albania, the mining and oil industries can operate again.”
It would only be clawing back c.10% of what the Government had spent on the crisis though.
Some of us, especially those of us who have spent time in Asia like myself and Sean, had a fairly good idea of how dangerous this could turn out to be. We posted so many weeks back and the pillorying came from the likes of you. So, we're not jumped up experts. It's more that, like Fiver in Watership Down, we sniffed the ill wind that was blowing our way.
If I was ultra-cynical I’d say the “delays” are at least partly a go-slow to help the rail companies with their cash flow.
I fear those complaining about the pains of the lockdown haven’t experienced the pains of illness, hospitalisation or death and thereby are lucky enough to have an incomplete view of the situation.
In my case they’ve already processed the refund and given me a receipt with my card at a staffed rail station nearby - I’m just waiting for a BACS payment, which is a case of just pressing the button.
Colour me sceptical that it’s too much hard work.
But you are right about the quantities required. If they are disposable, and I go out three times a day, that's 1000 a year or 66 billion for the country. While we can't supply the NHS, that isn't going to happen
How do you price in grandparents never seeing their grandchildren again (whilst dying of something else), mass growth of mental health disorders and depression, the destruction of hundreds of thousands of people’s livelihoods, a semi-permanent reduction in the ability of the UK to fund a decent healthcare system, due to the reduced size of its economy, which means it can no longer treat nasty cancers and heart disorders leading to deaths there?
Your view is as incomplete as it gets.
Denmark has gone even further.
There are some who are squirrelling away excess and some who are desperate and struggling more than normal. Identifying and taxing either group without catching the other is going to be impossible.
After this ends we will need those who are squirrelling away to be spending in the economy some of what they've squirrelled away more than we will need the Treasury to replenish its funds.
Short term the government should be looking at what taxes it can cut to get the economy rebooted not which it can increase. Long term tax rises may be necessary but that's tomorrow's problem not today's.
Surely the courts will be bunged up for months?
https://twitter.com/Jack_Blanchard_/status/1250662902425681920
There are pros and cons and only a fool looks at one side of the coin.
R4 Today leading on the story that Johnson has decided that an extension of the lockdown in three weeks, with some minor tweeks, is required.
We'll have no economy by the end of this.
In this case we have a very high-profile dramatic and terrifying risk that is crowding out assessment of any other, and warping decision making.
It’s great for ensuring survival by escaping from a big scary lion. It’s terrible for managing many complex risk vectors in a very sophisticated society with tens of millions of people.
Its what we do in between that matters.
Imperial College modelled the official data (based on China) and calculated an R (infection rate) that was low. Hence the light precautions in the UK initially. Only when the horrific Italian date began to trickle out, did they smell a large Chinese rat. Trump has already accused the Chinese government of duplicity and he might be right for a change. The UK government can’t, or won’t follow suit without solid and direct evidence which is probably lacking. In the meantime, the Central Chinese government had for some time imposed a full belt and braces lockdown on Wuhan.
When Imperial tweaked their graphs with the new Italian data, they had a nasty shock. Lockdown in late March resulted. The UK government can claim they followed the science. Imperial can claim they took the only available data at face value, and their models would have been accurate had China told the truth.
Next year, when the enquiry begins, it will be established that the local Chinese bosses were, as is likely, ‘economical with the truth’. And by then the Wuhan data might even be accurate. The main criticism will be that the British government and Imperial were gullible. But they will claim they followed the scientific evidence. Yes, there was a delay after the Italian numbers started to appear, but the UK scientists had to wait for more data in case it was only a blip.
If the Government is going to take unpopular financial decisions it makes sense to do so 3-4 years away from the next election.
I have already spoken to one older relative this weekend, who has said precisely this.
Even forgetting the economy it is worth remembering that the lockdown causes both direct and indirect deaths too. There will come a point when stopping things from moving will cause more deaths than it saves.
Who are you prepared to sacrifice to prevent others from dying due to a virus?
Can I get a testify?
https://twitter.com/10DowningStreet/status/1251875182559494150/photo/1