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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » How Trump and his media acolytes got the coronavirus wrong

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  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,266
    IshmaelZ said:

    Both widely reported, and widely denied:

    https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/no-policy-keep-coronavirus-patients-18065540

    Even if you don't have a blanket ban you have to have a rationing policy which says that only those with very good frailty scores will be treated. Very few people in care homes are going to have good frailty scores, so it comes to the same thing.
    It should all be recorded in advance on the ReSPECT form process.

    https://www.resus.org.uk/respect/

    A lot of care home residents (including my much loved Mother in Law) would be more comfortable not being admitted. Indeed that is what she decided herself.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,938
    edited April 2020
    Omnium said:

    This

    "...there is a nasty curtain twitching denunciation-side of the British people which is also coming out, which is, frankly, nasty and which needs calling out."

    ,from cyclefree, is an excellent observation.

    I've just burnt my curtains on the strength of it and now the neighbour's Venetian blinds are rattling.
    Indeed. This is the flipside of a more disciplined and organised society, and is common to all North European cultures.

    Canada is good in this respect, in my experience. An open-minded society that still manages to have a lot of more positive peer pressure to act in a community-minded and public-spirited way, rather than via ostracism and denunciation.

  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,279
    isam said:

    "...there is a nasty curtain twitching denunciation-side of the British people which is also coming out, which is, frankly, nasty and which needs calling out."

    Massively. It seems common to become submissive to, then an agent of, authority
    Well put Cyclefree and Isam.

    The stasi: "One of its main tasks was spying on the population, mainly through a vast network of citizens turned informants" (Wiki).
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,219
    Stocky said:

    Well put Cyclefree and Isam.

    The stasi: "One of its main tasks was spying on the population, mainly through a vast network of citizens turned informants" (Wiki).
    I think I mentioned the other day that the Gestapo ran into serious problems dealing with all the denunciations they got - it nearly overwhelmed them.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    Stocky said:

    Well put Cyclefree and Isam.

    The stasi: "One of its main tasks was spying on the population, mainly through a vast network of citizens turned informants" (Wiki).
    Of course we only have one side of this story upon which everyone is making a snap judgement. Hmmm.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,341
    edited April 2020
    I have seen Covid 19 horrors like you wouldn't believe..

    https://twitter.com/REWearmouth/status/1247969666015821828?s=20
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,400
    stodge said:

    The Austrian plan looks at shops by size (400 square metres) allowing the smaller to open first.

    The easing of social distancing is the big risk - what if we saw a second wave of cases in early to mid May?
    The question is not "will we see another wave of CV-19 cases?", but "how rapidly will CV-19 cases grow once restrictions are eased?"

    And that's why restrictions are going to be gradually removed, perhaps with different rules for different regions. The goal is not to have R of 0.1 (which would be amazing), but to have it in the 0.8 to 1.5 range. In other words, to ensure that instead of each infection turning into 3+ infections, to make sure than it's 1 or 1 and a bit.

    If the second "wave" sees doubling of cases every 15 days, rather than every 3 days, then it can be managed rather better. It moves to being something chronic that we deal with, while treatment is improved and (hopefully) a vaccine created.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,400
    Charles said:



    I could work with that

    https://i.pinimg.com/736x/ec/b8/99/ecb899cad3b26111422afa7167389ae7.jpg
    Ummm - who is that photo of?
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,483
    Andy_JS said:

    Pollution levels in quite a few places have changed from low to moderate today compared to a few days ago.

    https://uk-air.defra.gov.uk/latest/currentlevels

    In the absence of any breeze such pollution as is created will remain in situ so that's no great surprise.

    Once we get some breeze I suspect we'll see the pollution levels ease off.

    I suspect pollen sufferers will have had a poor day today but the cooler and breezier forecast for the weekend will help them and may also help keep everyone indoors where they should be - Friday and Saturday might be the risky days.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,482
    edited April 2020
    ydoethur said:

    I am not, perhaps, an Alpha male.

    But I am a devoted reader of Alistair Meeks’ thread headers.
    Goes without saying.

    Still sneaky - doubly so in trying to somehow deploy the forces of the grand wizard Meeks as a smokescreen here.

    Edit: and anyway Charles has stolen the thread!
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,483
    isam said:
    Money talks there as it seems to be for Royal Ascot which the racing authorities seem determined will happen even if it has to be run behind closed doors.

    The reasons - lack of insurance against a pandemic perhaps? No, Ascot will be covered - what it might lose in terms of the thick end of 300,000 people wining and dining is one thing but set against the loss of global media rights and the potential damage to the global bloodstock industry of the big races not happening it's small potatoes (they probably do serve small potatoes at Ascot).
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,266
    rcs1000 said:

    Ummm - who is that photo of?
    Not Amy, or Gretchen Whitmer, but a different Gretchen. Would get my vote, over Trump. Mind you more or less anyone would, even beelzebub himself!
  • alteregoalterego Posts: 1,100
    felix said:

    Of course we only have one side of this story upon which everyone is making a snap judgement. Hmmm.
    Quite. Pot/ kettle?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,555
    Charles said:



    I could work with that

    https://i.pinimg.com/736x/ec/b8/99/ecb899cad3b26111422afa7167389ae7.jpg
    From home?
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,483
    rcs1000 said:



    The question is not "will we see another wave of CV-19 cases?", but "how rapidly will CV-19 cases grow once restrictions are eased?"

    And that's why restrictions are going to be gradually removed, perhaps with different rules for different regions. The goal is not to have R of 0.1 (which would be amazing), but to have it in the 0.8 to 1.5 range. In other words, to ensure that instead of each infection turning into 3+ infections, to make sure than it's 1 or 1 and a bit.

    If the second "wave" sees doubling of cases every 15 days, rather than every 3 days, then it can be managed rather better. It moves to being something chronic that we deal with, while treatment is improved and (hopefully) a vaccine created.

    As a classically educated overweight man in his late 50s, I am frankly scared if I contract this virus it won't end well for me.

    In London I don't see how social distancing works once the restrictions are eased - it's not really effective now. The Underground will be as crowded as ever once businesses are allowed to re-open and as I've said before it will be those who will have no option but to go back to work who will be at the greatest risk.
  • alteregoalterego Posts: 1,100
    rcs1000 said:

    The question is not "will we see another wave of CV-19 cases?", but "how rapidly will CV-19 cases grow once restrictions are eased?"

    And that's why restrictions are going to be gradually removed, perhaps with different rules for different regions. The goal is not to have R of 0.1 (which would be amazing), but to have it in the 0.8 to 1.5 range. In other words, to ensure that instead of each infection turning into 3+ infections, to make sure than it's 1 or 1 and a bit.

    If the second "wave" sees doubling of cases every 15 days, rather than every 3 days, then it can be managed rather better. It moves to being something chronic that we deal with, while treatment is improved and (hopefully) a vaccine created.
    Any recurrence after easing, however gradual, will see an avalanche of "told you so" prats on social media.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295
    "Obesity is a major risk factor for those with coronavirus, says France's chief epidemiologist, backing other studies that say obese patients are at greater risk of severe complications and remain contagious nearly twice as long

    Delfraissy said he is particularly concerned about this in the US, where 42.4% of the population is obese"

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-8200025/Obesity-major-COVID-19-risk-factor-says-French-chief-epidemiologist.html
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,594
    Andy_JS said:

    "Obesity is a major risk factor for those with coronavirus, says France's chief epidemiologist, backing other studies that say obese patients are at greater risk of severe complications and remain contagious nearly twice as long

    Delfraissy said he is particularly concerned about this in the US, where 42.4% of the population is obese"

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-8200025/Obesity-major-COVID-19-risk-factor-says-French-chief-epidemiologist.html

    42%!! My gods.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    A report on a US news blog (quoted a paper but I missed which one)

    circa 3500 Madrid area nursing home residents died with CV symptoms in March - they were not tested

    That is just Madrid.........
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,219
    alterego said:

    Quite. Pot/ kettle?
    I believe that most people have commented on a general feature of humans - their readiness to turn into nasty denouncers when convinced of their moral superiority. There is plenty of evidence of such behaviour, from the past, sadly.

    I don't think anyone has suggested a counter lynch mob.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295
    kle4 said:

    42%!! My gods.
    I didn't believe that figure at first but here's confirmation:

    https://www.cdc.gov/obesity/data/adult.html
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,400
    Floater said:

    A report on a US news blog (quoted a paper but I missed which one)

    circa 3500 Madrid area nursing home residents died with CV symptoms in March - they were not tested

    That is just Madrid.........

    Part of the problem, though, is that most nursing home residents who pass away will have coughs and the like anyway. So, while it's entirely possible they had CV-19, it's also really hard to know for sure.

    What we need to know is what morbidity in Spain and Italy currently look like compared to normal. I.e., how many people normally die, and how many people are dying now.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295
    isam said:
    Smart decision by Wimbledon. I'm guessing it was the 2003 SARS epidemic that convinced them to take out this insurance.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 9,012
    Foxy said:

    This remarkable woman, one of the last of the kinder transport refugees, and well known locally died of Covid19 this week. Another bit of living history gone forever. These are not just numbers, though on PB people are good with numbers, they are much more than that.

    https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2018/nov/24/woman-saved-jewish-family-history-housekeeper

    Simply heart-rending.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,716
    We know they tried to cover it up early on, more evidence of that doesn't tell us whether their numbers are correct now.

    The reason to believe their current case numbers are probably not massively covered up isn't because the Chinese government doesn't lie - it lies all the time - it's because they're putting everything they have into fighting the disease, and you can't fight it if you can't see it. Relatedly, the reason to think their death numbers are correct at least to within an order of magnitude is because the things they did seem to have worked when other countries did them, and some of those other countries lie less pathologically.

    PS I don't think there's particularly a left-right angle to this???
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 5,092
    Ironically just as the issue of healthcare is thrust even more into the November election campaign and where Sanders message might have got more traction his campaign comes to an end.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,555
    Foxy said:

    Not Amy, or Gretchen Whitmer, but a different Gretchen. Would get my vote, over Trump. Mind you more or less anyone would, even beelzebub himself!
    Beelzebub v Trump.

    That would be some TV debate. Although Beelzebub would be permanently pissed off.

    "He stole my policy. That was MY policy...."
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,296
    edited April 2020
    Andy_JS said:

    "Obesity is a major risk factor for those with coronavirus, says France's chief epidemiologist, backing other studies that say obese patients are at greater risk of severe complications and remain contagious nearly twice as long

    Delfraissy said he is particularly concerned about this in the US, where 42.4% of the population is obese"

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-8200025/Obesity-major-COVID-19-risk-factor-says-French-chief-epidemiologist.html

    And yet...

    This UK ICNARC report shows that the BMI spread of ICU patients to date matches the population as a whole (so a high BMI doesn't appear to make you more likely to need ICU care).

    And for those admitted to ICU, survival chance if your BMI is <25 is not massively better than if your BMI is >30 (56.4% versus 42.4%).

    https://www.icnarc.org/About/Latest-News/2020/04/04/Report-On-2249-Patients-Critically-Ill-With-Covid-19
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295

    And yet...

    This UK ICNARC report shows that the BMI spread of ICU patients to date matches the population as a whole (so a high BMI doesn't appear to make you more likely to need ICU care).

    And for those admitted to ICU, survival chance if your BMI is <25 is not massively better than if your BMI is >30 (56.4% versus 42.4%).

    https://www.icnarc.org/About/Latest-News/2020/04/04/Report-On-2249-Patients-Critically-Ill-With-Covid-19
    Interesting point.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,219
    I never fail to be surprised by the number of people who think that making a speech, say, about an issue does anything other than inform people

    For laying pipe you need a toolpusher, as they say.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,110

    Thread done

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,266

    Beelzebub v Trump.

    That would be some TV debate. Although Beelzebub would be permanently pissed off.

    "He stole my policy. That was MY policy...."
    The Father of Lies vs Mr Fake News, now that would be some face off...
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