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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » How Trump and his media acolytes got the coronavirus wrong

SystemSystem Posts: 12,127
edited April 2020 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » How Trump and his media acolytes got the coronavirus wrong

The above compilation of clips, mostly from Fox News, shows how leading media supporters of the President and Trump himself were viewing the epidemic only a few weeks ago. Since then the US has become the nation most affected and Trump has changed his tune. His latest is blaming the World Health Organisation.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480
    edited April 2020
    The timeline in this article is pretty damning.

    https://twitter.com/portraitinflesh/status/1247510090736906241?s=09

    And first...
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Just a reminder that David Frum is a war mongering neo Con empty shell of a human being.

    That he seems sane and reasonable is just a reflection of the Trump shaded GOP.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,255
    Foxy said:

    The timeline in this article is pretty damning.

    https://twitter.com/portraitinflesh/status/1247510090736906241?s=09

    And first...

    The thing about this is that so much of the day to day fight is in the power of governors. Does that negate Trump being held responsible, or does it merely make him seem even more impotent than his howling at the moon does?
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    Pro_Rata said:

    Foxy said:

    The timeline in this article is pretty damning.

    https://twitter.com/portraitinflesh/status/1247510090736906241?s=09

    And first...

    The thing about this is that so much of the day to day fight is in the power of governors. Does that negate Trump being held responsible, or does it merely make him seem even more impotent than his howling at the moon does?
    He doesn't seem capable of working constructively with the Governors, so I'd say just another reason to damn him.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,267
    edited April 2020
    Trump does now seem to be reacting more effectively to the Covid 19 outbreak though.

    Today he has announced the US is producing 110,000 ventilators for example (200 of which have been requested by the UK) and he is also expanding testing for Covid 19.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-52213439

    On another note Trump has also threatened to withdraw funding from the WHO over alleged bias to China
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,267
    Pro_Rata said:

    Foxy said:

    The timeline in this article is pretty damning.

    https://twitter.com/portraitinflesh/status/1247510090736906241?s=09

    And first...

    The thing about this is that so much of the day to day fight is in the power of governors. Does that negate Trump being held responsible, or does it merely make him seem even more impotent than his howling at the moon does?
    The governors largely decide when to lockdown in their states, that is true
  • DAlexanderDAlexander Posts: 815
    Boris is reacting well to treatment apparently:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52208156
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,798
    Alistair said:

    Just a reminder that David Frum is a war mongering neo Con empty shell of a human being.

    That he seems sane and reasonable is just a reflection of the Trump shaded GOP.

    Kristol is of a similar political lineage.

    https://twitter.com/BillKristol/status/1247513395601031168?s=20

    The 'intellectual' reference in the linked piece made me think initially it was going to be a hatchet job on Liberal ponces, but apart from a dig at de Blasio it goes after the Trumpers. An intellectual wing to Trumpism, who knew?!!
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,283
    HYUFD said:

    Trump does now seem to be reacting more effectively to the Covid 19 outbreak though.

    Today he has announced the US is producing 110,000 ventilators for example (200 of which have been requested by the UK) and he is also expanding testing for Covid 19.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-52213439

    On another note Trump has also threatened to withdraw funding from the WHO over alleged bias to China

    Are you an apologist for Trump? That video shows a level of stupidity among the US right wing that makes our right wing and extreme left look positively balanced and sane by comparison, and that is really saying something!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    Alistair said:

    Just a reminder that David Frum is a war mongering neo Con empty shell of a human being.

    That he seems sane and reasonable is just a reflection of the Trump shaded GOP.

    Even war mongering neocons recognise the collective nature of the danger of pandemics...

    https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/george-bush-2005-wait-pandemic-late-prepare/story
    "To respond to a pandemic, we need medical personnel and adequate supplies of equipment," Bush said. "In a pandemic, everything from syringes to hospital beds, respirators masks and protective equipment would be in short supply."

    Bush told the gathered scientists that they would need to develop a vaccine in record time.

    "If a pandemic strikes, our country must have a surge capacity in place that will allow us to bring a new vaccine on line quickly and manufacture enough to immunize every American against the pandemic strain," he said....
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,451
    A new laboratory aiming to achieve 30,000 coronavirus tests a day is to be set up at Cambridge University.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cambridgeshire-52212777

    Given it is a proper uni, confident they will be able to do.

    The obvious criticism is why we didn't utilize them in the first place.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    Thanks to all in the last thread for their best wishes.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586

    A new laboratory aiming to achieve 30,000 coronavirus tests a day is to be set up at Cambridge University.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cambridgeshire-52212777

    Given it is a proper uni, confident they will be able to do.

    The obvious criticism is why we didn't utilize them in the first place.

    Which is more important to you -

    1) Lives
    2) Proper Process and Not Utilising The Wrong Resources (not undermining the authority of your own organisation) ?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    Alistair said:

    Just a reminder that David Frum is a war mongering neo Con empty shell of a human being.

    That he seems sane and reasonable is just a reflection of the Trump shaded GOP.

    Kristol is of a similar political lineage.

    https://twitter.com/BillKristol/status/1247513395601031168?s=20

    The 'intellectual' reference in the linked piece made me think initially it was going to be a hatchet job on Liberal ponces, but apart from a dig at de Blasio it goes after the Trumpers. An intellectual wing to Trumpism, who knew?!!
    Puts you right off When Harry Met Sally
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,578
    828 dead in England yesterday
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,283
    eadric said:

    Boris is reacting well to treatment apparently:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52208156

    I wish the article said that, but it doesn't.

    It just says he is "responding to treatment", which means practically nothing
    Indeed. It perhaps means he isn't getting worse, which is positive in a sense, but it could simply mean he is stabilising.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,695
    HYUFD said:

    Trump does now seem to be reacting more effectively to the Covid 19 outbreak though.

    Today he has announced the US is producing 110,000 ventilators for example (200 of which have been requested by the UK) and he is also expanding testing for Covid 19.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-52213439

    On another note Trump has also threatened to withdraw funding from the WHO over alleged bias to China

    Did you see the car crash where he said he was going to put a hold on WHO money then when challenged on it say 'I'm not saying I am going to do that' to which a reporter said 'you did' to which he said 'I didn't'.

    Not sure how that can be described as getting a hold on it.

    He also accused the WHO of calling it wrong. An enormous great pot and kettle comes to mind.

    I have no idea if we are getting it right here, but at least Boris and his team give the impression of knowing what they are doing.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    eadric said:

    828 dead in England yesterday

    Feck. I fear we're going to be the first European nation to hit 1000 in a day?

    Actually, scrap that: IIRC France has recorded way over 1000 in a day.
    You mean the French have beaten us AGAIN?

    FFS...
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    HYUFD said:

    Trump does now seem to be reacting more effectively to the Covid 19 outbreak though.

    Today he has announced the US is producing 110,000 ventilators for example (200 of which have been requested by the UK) and he is also expanding testing for Covid 19.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-52213439

    On another note Trump has also threatened to withdraw funding from the WHO over alleged bias to China

    Trump says the peak is the next 2 weeks - when will these ventilators be ready?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,823

    eadric said:

    Boris is reacting well to treatment apparently:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52208156

    I wish the article said that, but it doesn't.

    It just says he is "responding to treatment", which means practically nothing
    Indeed. It perhaps means he isn't getting worse, which is positive in a sense, but it could simply mean he is stabilising.
    There were reports that his temperature had improved, but perhaps those weren't confirmed?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    eadric said:

    ydoethur said:

    eadric said:

    828 dead in England yesterday

    Feck. I fear we're going to be the first European nation to hit 1000 in a day?

    Actually, scrap that: IIRC France has recorded way over 1000 in a day.
    You mean the French have beaten us AGAIN?

    FFS...
    France, the UK, Spain and Italy are all going to hit 20-40k deaths, if not more, on present data
    Hopefully you mean ‘in total’ rather than ‘per day.’
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,283
    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    Trump does now seem to be reacting more effectively to the Covid 19 outbreak though.

    Today he has announced the US is producing 110,000 ventilators for example (200 of which have been requested by the UK) and he is also expanding testing for Covid 19.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-52213439

    On another note Trump has also threatened to withdraw funding from the WHO over alleged bias to China

    Did you see the car crash where he said he was going to put a hold on WHO money then when challenged on it say 'I'm not saying I am going to do that' to which a reporter said 'you did' to which he said 'I didn't'.

    Not sure how that can be described as getting a hold on it.

    He also accused the WHO of calling it wrong. An enormous great pot and kettle comes to mind.

    I have no idea if we are getting it right here, but at least Boris and his team give the impression of knowing what they are doing.
    I think the head honchos of the NHS appear to know what they are doing. Whether the government does is open to question, although if they continue to listen more to said head honchos and less to Dominic Cummings that is to their credit.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    eadric said:

    828 dead in England yesterday

    Feck. I fear we're going to be the first European nation to hit 1000 in a day?

    Actually, scrap that: IIRC France has recorded way over 1000 in a day.
    The UK already has hit that but hasn’t been transparent on care home deaths . If you compare like for like the UK is running well ahead of French hospital deaths but is a week behind .

  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,947

    The 'intellectual' reference in the linked piece made me think initially it was going to be a hatchet job on Liberal ponces, but apart from a dig at de Blasio it goes after the Trumpers. An intellectual wing to Trumpism, who knew?!!

    Here we are -

    https://unherd.com/2020/04/the-mysticism-of-the-far-right/
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    ydoethur said:

    eadric said:

    828 dead in England yesterday

    Feck. I fear we're going to be the first European nation to hit 1000 in a day?

    Actually, scrap that: IIRC France has recorded way over 1000 in a day.
    You mean the French have beaten us AGAIN?

    FFS...
    But the French total included deaths in care homes- ours do not yet
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    Trump does now seem to be reacting more effectively to the Covid 19 outbreak though.

    Today he has announced the US is producing 110,000 ventilators for example (200 of which have been requested by the UK) and he is also expanding testing for Covid 19.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-52213439

    On another note Trump has also threatened to withdraw funding from the WHO over alleged bias to China

    Did you see the car crash where he said he was going to put a hold on WHO money then when challenged on it say 'I'm not saying I am going to do that' to which a reporter said 'you did' to which he said 'I didn't'.

    Not sure how that can be described as getting a hold on it.

    He also accused the WHO of calling it wrong. An enormous great pot and kettle comes to mind.

    I have no idea if we are getting it right here, but at least Boris and his team give the impression of knowing what they are doing.
    I think the head honchos of the NHS appear to know what they are doing. Whether the government does is open to question, although if they continue to listen more to said head honchos and less to Dominic Cummings that is to their credit.
    For the UK:

    There are now thousands of documents available that detail exactly which scientists recommended what and when.

    The only indication of Cummings having involvement is gossip piece by a reporter reporting something someone heard someone else say they'd heard.

    For the US:

    We have numerous documented instances of Trump making it up as he goes along - and being proud of it.
  • ABZABZ Posts: 441
    eadric said:

    ydoethur said:

    eadric said:

    ydoethur said:

    eadric said:

    828 dead in England yesterday

    Feck. I fear we're going to be the first European nation to hit 1000 in a day?

    Actually, scrap that: IIRC France has recorded way over 1000 in a day.
    You mean the French have beaten us AGAIN?

    FFS...
    France, the UK, Spain and Italy are all going to hit 20-40k deaths, if not more, on present data
    Hopefully you mean ‘in total’ rather than ‘per day.’
    Yes, total first wave

    Sadly the next few days will be like this. Assuming we are tracking Italy and Spain (quite likely given the data about new admissions slowing down), both countries showed maximum daily deaths (in hospitals) about 2.5 weeks after lockdown - roughly where we are now - before starting to slowly decline.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,695

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    Trump does now seem to be reacting more effectively to the Covid 19 outbreak though.

    Today he has announced the US is producing 110,000 ventilators for example (200 of which have been requested by the UK) and he is also expanding testing for Covid 19.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-52213439

    On another note Trump has also threatened to withdraw funding from the WHO over alleged bias to China

    Did you see the car crash where he said he was going to put a hold on WHO money then when challenged on it say 'I'm not saying I am going to do that' to which a reporter said 'you did' to which he said 'I didn't'.

    Not sure how that can be described as getting a hold on it.

    He also accused the WHO of calling it wrong. An enormous great pot and kettle comes to mind.

    I have no idea if we are getting it right here, but at least Boris and his team give the impression of knowing what they are doing.
    I think the head honchos of the NHS appear to know what they are doing. Whether the government does is open to question, although if they continue to listen more to said head honchos and less to Dominic Cummings that is to their credit.
    I think listening to the experts is probably the number 1 rule in 'knowing what you are doing'.

    To be fair to Boris, if he pulls through this ok, he looks like he will have handled this very, very well. He has the right personality to front it up. If, as he appears to have done, he listens to the experts that is another plus. He always handed over the technical questions. And the cherry on the top was proving to the sceptics it was serious by catching the damn virus himself and going down bad with it rather than recovering in a few days with very mild symptoms.

    Difficult to know what else he could have done (of course I don't know what happened in planning meetings), but provided he recovers fully it will have been cracking leadership.
  • ABZABZ Posts: 441
    eadric said:

    nico67 said:

    eadric said:

    828 dead in England yesterday

    Feck. I fear we're going to be the first European nation to hit 1000 in a day?

    Actually, scrap that: IIRC France has recorded way over 1000 in a day.
    The UK already has hit that but hasn’t been transparent on care home deaths . If you compare like for like the UK is running well ahead of French hospital deaths but is a week behind .

    I'm not sure I trust any nation's stats, TBH
    Differences in the way they are recorded do make it hard. The trend might be a more reliable indicator.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,080
    Pro_Rata said:

    Foxy said:

    The timeline in this article is pretty damning.

    https://twitter.com/portraitinflesh/status/1247510090736906241?s=09

    And first...

    The thing about this is that so much of the day to day fight is in the power of governors. Does that negate Trump being held responsible, or does it merely make him seem even more impotent than his howling at the moon does?
    Ultimately the power of the Governors means that the impact on the US of Trump's failings will be less than if he'd been in charge of a more centralised country like the UK.

    But the Federal government still has a lot of power and it's still using some of that power in an actively harmful way - e.g. In the distribution of medical supplies.

    Any other President, any other political leader pretty much, would have been completely destroyed by the series of actively harmful steps that Trump has taken. Yet I wouldn't be surprised to see him re-elected.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586
    eadric said:

    nico67 said:

    eadric said:

    828 dead in England yesterday

    Feck. I fear we're going to be the first European nation to hit 1000 in a day?

    Actually, scrap that: IIRC France has recorded way over 1000 in a day.
    The UK already has hit that but hasn’t been transparent on care home deaths . If you compare like for like the UK is running well ahead of French hospital deaths but is a week behind .

    I'm not sure I trust any nation's stats, TBH
    The ONS is following up, in the UK - including all deaths where COVID19 is mentioned in documentation. Such as on the death certificate.

    Which guarantees that more deaths will be attributed to COVID19 than will actually occur. This is because a non-trivial number of people diagnosed with COVID19 don't have it. Since they are not doing post-mortem tests on everyone, the diagnosis will be used on the death certificate.

    So the ONS number will err on the high side, if anything.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,147
    ABZ said:

    eadric said:

    ydoethur said:

    eadric said:

    ydoethur said:

    eadric said:

    828 dead in England yesterday

    Feck. I fear we're going to be the first European nation to hit 1000 in a day?

    Actually, scrap that: IIRC France has recorded way over 1000 in a day.
    You mean the French have beaten us AGAIN?

    FFS...
    France, the UK, Spain and Italy are all going to hit 20-40k deaths, if not more, on present data
    Hopefully you mean ‘in total’ rather than ‘per day.’
    Yes, total first wave

    Sadly the next few days will be like this. Assuming we are tracking Italy and Spain (quite likely given the data about new admissions slowing down), both countries showed maximum daily deaths (in hospitals) about 2.5 weeks after lockdown - roughly where we are now - before starting to slowly decline.
    Yes - we're on a similar trajectory in raw numbers albeit with a bigger population than both countries I think and a more urbanised population. This is why all this sudden chatter about easing the lockdown so soon was ridiculous.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,947
    HYUFD said:

    Trump does now seem to be reacting more effectively to the Covid 19 outbreak though.

    Today he has announced the US is producing 110,000 ventilators for example (200 of which have been requested by the UK) and he is also expanding testing for Covid 19.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-52213439

    On another note Trump has also threatened to withdraw funding from the WHO over alleged bias to China

    I tend to assume that anything intelligent and effective that comes out of this Administration does so despite him not because of him. Is this unfair? Not if it's true. It can't be unfair to say something if it's true.
  • ukpaulukpaul Posts: 649
    eadric said:

    ydoethur said:

    eadric said:

    828 dead in England yesterday

    Feck. I fear we're going to be the first European nation to hit 1000 in a day?

    Actually, scrap that: IIRC France has recorded way over 1000 in a day.
    You mean the French have beaten us AGAIN?

    FFS...
    France, the UK, Spain and Italy are all going to hit 20-40k deaths, if not more, on present data
    France has tightened its lockdown in response. Spain and Italy have, for weeks, seen the need for a more severe lockdown and here we have the media pushing and pushing on when our current, less complete, lockdown will end.

    It’s reckless, it’s irresponsible and I hope that one of the medical heads now tells them to STFU. The stories they need to tell are elsewhere.
  • TGOHF666TGOHF666 Posts: 2,052
    CMO said less than 20k would be a good outcome.

    Record day of deaths - should be plenty of questions about lifting the lockdown at the presser then...
  • Do we have a New Cases total yet for yesterday?
    Must say, I had assumed yesterday's total of deaths included a lag element for the weekend and that today's figures would be appreciably lower. Very worryingly this is not the case.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,147
    My area of Almeria in SE Spainis one of 2 provinces in the country with the lowest numbers right from the start. We now have 388 cases - just 8 extra over tha past 2 days. We have a much stricter lockdown. And it is working. We may get some loosening by May. The UK must get real about the timescale needed to prevent a catastrophe.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,662
    eadric said:

    ABZ said:

    eadric said:

    ydoethur said:

    eadric said:

    ydoethur said:

    eadric said:

    828 dead in England yesterday

    Feck. I fear we're going to be the first European nation to hit 1000 in a day?

    Actually, scrap that: IIRC France has recorded way over 1000 in a day.
    You mean the French have beaten us AGAIN?

    FFS...
    France, the UK, Spain and Italy are all going to hit 20-40k deaths, if not more, on present data
    Hopefully you mean ‘in total’ rather than ‘per day.’
    Yes, total first wave

    Sadly the next few days will be like this. Assuming we are tracking Italy and Spain (quite likely given the data about new admissions slowing down), both countries showed maximum daily deaths (in hospitals) about 2.5 weeks after lockdown - roughly where we are now - before starting to slowly decline.
    Which surely means you are over optimistic in thinking our first wave death toll will be 7-20,000 as you said yesterday?

    The curve suggests a total nearer 40,000 than 7,000

    I'm not criticising. We are all struggling with such vague data to hand.
    Noone knows how many will die. I find it rather unpleasant when people try to project it.
  • ukpaul said:

    eadric said:

    ydoethur said:

    eadric said:

    828 dead in England yesterday

    Feck. I fear we're going to be the first European nation to hit 1000 in a day?

    Actually, scrap that: IIRC France has recorded way over 1000 in a day.
    You mean the French have beaten us AGAIN?

    FFS...
    France, the UK, Spain and Italy are all going to hit 20-40k deaths, if not more, on present data
    France has tightened its lockdown in response. Spain and Italy have, for weeks, seen the need for a more severe lockdown and here we have the media pushing and pushing on when our current, less complete, lockdown will end.

    It’s reckless, it’s irresponsible and I hope that one of the medical heads now tells them to STFU. The stories they need to tell are elsewhere.
    Absoluely agree, I can't believe that the media continues to rabbit on about easing the lockdown. We are many, many weeks away from this and it's high time this was made clear by Government.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    From a couple of days back. Not sure if it was noted at the time:

    https://techcrunch.com/2020/04/06/a-second-potential-covid-19-vaccine-backed-by-bill-and-melinda-gates-is-entering-human-testing/
    A new COVID-19 vaccine candidate is entering Phase 1 clinical human testing today, after the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) accepted an application from Inovio Pharmaceuticals under the regulator’s Investigational New Drug program. Inovio plans to inject its first volunteer test subject with the INO-4800 DNA vaccine candidate it has developed, following promising results from preclinical studies performed on animals that did indicate increased immune response.

    The Inovio DNA vaccine candidate works by injecting a specifically engineered plasmid (a small, independent genetic structure) into a patient so that their cells can produce a desired, targeted antibody to fight off a specific infection. DNA vaccines, while available and approved for a variety of animal infections in veterinary medicine, have not yet been approved for human use.

    That said, Inovio’s work isn’t starting from scratch: The company previously completed a Phase 1 study for a DNA vaccine candidate for Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS), where it showed promising results and a high level of antibodies produced in subjects that persisted for an extended period of time.

    Inovio has been able to scale up quickly, developing and producing “thousands of doses” of INO-4800 in just a few short weeks in order to support its Phase 1 and Phase 2 trials. The company has done so in part thanks to backing from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, as well as funding from other nonprofits and organizations. If clinical trials are successful, Inovio says it will be able to have up to one million doses of the vaccine ready by the end of the year, for use both in additional trials and for potential emergency use pending authorization...
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,575

    Pro_Rata said:

    Foxy said:

    The timeline in this article is pretty damning.

    https://twitter.com/portraitinflesh/status/1247510090736906241?s=09

    And first...

    The thing about this is that so much of the day to day fight is in the power of governors. Does that negate Trump being held responsible, or does it merely make him seem even more impotent than his howling at the moon does?
    Ultimately the power of the Governors means that the impact on the US of Trump's failings will be less than if he'd been in charge of a more centralised country like the UK.

    But the Federal government still has a lot of power and it's still using some of that power in an actively harmful way - e.g. In the distribution of medical supplies.

    Any other President, any other political leader pretty much, would have been completely destroyed by the series of actively harmful steps that Trump has taken. Yet I wouldn't be surprised to see him re-elected.
    I think that is right. If anything, Covid-19 strengthens Trump's chances of reelection.

    First, because of American demographics, Democrat-led states will have higher than average deaths compared with the United States as a whole.

    Second, Trump placed Pence in charge of countering Covid-19 so if opinion does turn against the White House, the scapegoat Veep can be dumped.

    Third, by November, numbers should be falling. Trump will take credit, as he will for any progress on the cure or vaccine front, by pointing to the government's injection of cash.

    Fourth, a disease-led election places Biden's frailty in the spotlight.
  • ABZABZ Posts: 441
    eadric said:

    ABZ said:

    eadric said:

    ydoethur said:

    eadric said:

    ydoethur said:

    eadric said:

    828 dead in England yesterday

    Feck. I fear we're going to be the first European nation to hit 1000 in a day?

    Actually, scrap that: IIRC France has recorded way over 1000 in a day.
    You mean the French have beaten us AGAIN?

    FFS...
    France, the UK, Spain and Italy are all going to hit 20-40k deaths, if not more, on present data
    Hopefully you mean ‘in total’ rather than ‘per day.’
    Yes, total first wave

    Sadly the next few days will be like this. Assuming we are tracking Italy and Spain (quite likely given the data about new admissions slowing down), both countries showed maximum daily deaths (in hospitals) about 2.5 weeks after lockdown - roughly where we are now - before starting to slowly decline.
    Which surely means you are over optimistic in thinking our first wave death toll will be 7-20,000 as you said yesterday?

    The curve suggests a total nearer 40,000 than 7,000

    I'm not criticising. We are all struggling with such vague data to hand.
    Possibly a bit optimistic unfortunately. Assuming we are like other countries (and there's no reason to think we should be different as the measures taken are, to a first approximation, fairly similar) this week will be the most traumatising before slowly getting better.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,921

    eadric said:

    nico67 said:

    eadric said:

    828 dead in England yesterday

    Feck. I fear we're going to be the first European nation to hit 1000 in a day?

    Actually, scrap that: IIRC France has recorded way over 1000 in a day.
    The UK already has hit that but hasn’t been transparent on care home deaths . If you compare like for like the UK is running well ahead of French hospital deaths but is a week behind .

    I'm not sure I trust any nation's stats, TBH
    The ONS is following up, in the UK - including all deaths where COVID19 is mentioned in documentation. Such as on the death certificate.

    Which guarantees that more deaths will be attributed to COVID19 than will actually occur. This is because a non-trivial number of people diagnosed with COVID19 don't have it. Since they are not doing post-mortem tests on everyone, the diagnosis will be used on the death certificate.

    So the ONS number will err on the high side, if anything.
    I know there is a false negative problem with tests, but I wasn't aware of a significant false positive one. Could I have a source please.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,947
    felix said:

    My area of Almeria in SE Spainis one of 2 provinces in the country with the lowest numbers right from the start. We now have 388 cases - just 8 extra over tha past 2 days. We have a much stricter lockdown. And it is working. We may get some loosening by May. The UK must get real about the timescale needed to prevent a catastrophe.

    I think we have got real. It's lockdown of a greater or lesser severity for many months - and possibly years - so as to manage hospital admissions for Covid-19 within NHS capacity. There will be tens of thousands of deaths. There will be great economic and social damage. This is the base assumption and anything on the upside of that will be most welcome.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586
    rcs1000 said:

    eadric said:

    nico67 said:

    eadric said:

    828 dead in England yesterday

    Feck. I fear we're going to be the first European nation to hit 1000 in a day?

    Actually, scrap that: IIRC France has recorded way over 1000 in a day.
    The UK already has hit that but hasn’t been transparent on care home deaths . If you compare like for like the UK is running well ahead of French hospital deaths but is a week behind .

    I'm not sure I trust any nation's stats, TBH
    The ONS is following up, in the UK - including all deaths where COVID19 is mentioned in documentation. Such as on the death certificate.

    Which guarantees that more deaths will be attributed to COVID19 than will actually occur. This is because a non-trivial number of people diagnosed with COVID19 don't have it. Since they are not doing post-mortem tests on everyone, the diagnosis will be used on the death certificate.

    So the ONS number will err on the high side, if anything.
    I know there is a false negative problem with tests, but I wasn't aware of a significant false positive one. Could I have a source please.
    I don't mean a false positive on tests.

    I mean that diagnosis of probable COVID19 infection has been consistently running higher than the number proven by tests. You can see this across all the countries that have been testing (primarily) those who have symptoms.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,823
    HYUFD said:
    Excellent news. I am sure the rest is doing him a world of good.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,267

    Pro_Rata said:

    Foxy said:

    The timeline in this article is pretty damning.

    https://twitter.com/portraitinflesh/status/1247510090736906241?s=09

    And first...

    The thing about this is that so much of the day to day fight is in the power of governors. Does that negate Trump being held responsible, or does it merely make him seem even more impotent than his howling at the moon does?
    Ultimately the power of the Governors means that the impact on the US of Trump's failings will be less than if he'd been in charge of a more centralised country like the UK.

    But the Federal government still has a lot of power and it's still using some of that power in an actively harmful way - e.g. In the distribution of medical supplies.

    Any other President, any other political leader pretty much, would have been completely destroyed by the series of actively harmful steps that Trump has taken. Yet I wouldn't be surprised to see him re-elected.
    I think that is right. If anything, Covid-19 strengthens Trump's chances of reelection.

    First, because of American demographics, Democrat-led states will have higher than average deaths compared with the United States as a whole.

    Second, Trump placed Pence in charge of countering Covid-19 so if opinion does turn against the White House, the scapegoat Veep can be dumped.

    Third, by November, numbers should be falling. Trump will take credit, as he will for any progress on the cure or vaccine front, by pointing to the government's injection of cash.

    Fourth, a disease-led election places Biden's frailty in the spotlight.
    I doubt it will change the EC but Trump might be more likely to win the popular vote due to point 1
  • TGOHF666TGOHF666 Posts: 2,052
    felix said:

    My area of Almeria in SE Spainis one of 2 provinces in the country with the lowest numbers right from the start. We now have 388 cases - just 8 extra over tha past 2 days. We have a much stricter lockdown. And it is working. We may get some loosening by May. The UK must get real about the timescale needed to prevent a catastrophe.


    Not much left to restrict though is there - can't ban food shopping.

    I doubt limiting jogging hrs will make any difference.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,477
    Deaths are a massive lagging indicator.

    We need hospital admissions vs hospital discharges, as real time information.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,578
    edited April 2020

    828 dead in England yesterday

    Not including

    Wales 33
    Scotland 70
    NI 5

    total UK 936 :(
  • Serious question. Just tried walking up a few steps as a test. Was surprised how much heavy breathing it took. Legs feeling weak too. Ought I to worry? I've been self isolating since last Wednesday as I had a raised temperature. Called 111 and the call just ended on me each time.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,283

    eadric said:

    ABZ said:

    eadric said:

    ydoethur said:

    eadric said:

    ydoethur said:

    eadric said:

    828 dead in England yesterday

    Feck. I fear we're going to be the first European nation to hit 1000 in a day?

    Actually, scrap that: IIRC France has recorded way over 1000 in a day.
    You mean the French have beaten us AGAIN?

    FFS...
    France, the UK, Spain and Italy are all going to hit 20-40k deaths, if not more, on present data
    Hopefully you mean ‘in total’ rather than ‘per day.’
    Yes, total first wave

    Sadly the next few days will be like this. Assuming we are tracking Italy and Spain (quite likely given the data about new admissions slowing down), both countries showed maximum daily deaths (in hospitals) about 2.5 weeks after lockdown - roughly where we are now - before starting to slowly decline.
    Which surely means you are over optimistic in thinking our first wave death toll will be 7-20,000 as you said yesterday?

    The curve suggests a total nearer 40,000 than 7,000

    I'm not criticising. We are all struggling with such vague data to hand.
    Noone knows how many will die. I find it rather unpleasant when people try to project it.
    Unfortunately it has to be modelled. It informs how severe the response should be, and also informs the public on the potential scale of the challenge.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,823

    Deaths are a massive lagging indicator.

    We need hospital admissions vs hospital discharges, as real time information.

    Those looked as though they were plateauing.
  • ukpaulukpaul Posts: 649

    ukpaul said:

    eadric said:

    ydoethur said:

    eadric said:

    828 dead in England yesterday

    Feck. I fear we're going to be the first European nation to hit 1000 in a day?

    Actually, scrap that: IIRC France has recorded way over 1000 in a day.
    You mean the French have beaten us AGAIN?

    FFS...
    France, the UK, Spain and Italy are all going to hit 20-40k deaths, if not more, on present data
    France has tightened its lockdown in response. Spain and Italy have, for weeks, seen the need for a more severe lockdown and here we have the media pushing and pushing on when our current, less complete, lockdown will end.

    It’s reckless, it’s irresponsible and I hope that one of the medical heads now tells them to STFU. The stories they need to tell are elsewhere.
    Absoluely agree, I can't believe that the media continues to rabbit on about easing the lockdown. We are many, many weeks away from this and it's high time this was made clear by Government.
    I was trying to work out why they are doing it and I think it comes down to the bubble that journalists and reporters are in (at least in this country, I’d noted a different approach from foreign correspondents). Their world revolves around the live connectedness that they are now being denied and they just can’t cope with it. That they are then projecting that onto the whole nation is just plain wrong.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,283

    Pro_Rata said:

    Foxy said:

    The timeline in this article is pretty damning.

    https://twitter.com/portraitinflesh/status/1247510090736906241?s=09

    And first...

    The thing about this is that so much of the day to day fight is in the power of governors. Does that negate Trump being held responsible, or does it merely make him seem even more impotent than his howling at the moon does?
    Ultimately the power of the Governors means that the impact on the US of Trump's failings will be less than if he'd been in charge of a more centralised country like the UK.

    But the Federal government still has a lot of power and it's still using some of that power in an actively harmful way - e.g. In the distribution of medical supplies.

    Any other President, any other political leader pretty much, would have been completely destroyed by the series of actively harmful steps that Trump has taken. Yet I wouldn't be surprised to see him re-elected.
    I think that is right. If anything, Covid-19 strengthens Trump's chances of reelection.

    First, because of American demographics, Democrat-led states will have higher than average deaths compared with the United States as a whole.

    Second, Trump placed Pence in charge of countering Covid-19 so if opinion does turn against the White House, the scapegoat Veep can be dumped.

    Third, by November, numbers should be falling. Trump will take credit, as he will for any progress on the cure or vaccine front, by pointing to the government's injection of cash.

    Fourth, a disease-led election places Biden's frailty in the spotlight.
    Bizarre logic.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586
    edited April 2020

    Serious question. Just tried walking up a few steps as a test. Was surprised how much heavy breathing it took. Legs feeling weak too. Ought I to worry? I've been self isolating since last Wednesday as I had a raised temperature. Called 111 and the call just ended on me each time.

    Have you got an O2 levels measuring device?

    Keep trying on 111
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,823

    Serious question. Just tried walking up a few steps as a test. Was surprised how much heavy breathing it took. Legs feeling weak too. Ought I to worry? I've been self isolating since last Wednesday as I had a raised temperature. Called 111 and the call just ended on me each time.

    I'd be moderately worried. I think the advice is to call 999 if you have any trouble breathing.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,965
    I wonder if we'll get any statistical results from the Porton Down community antibody tests today?

    If not, perhaps one of those switched on journos might ask about it rather than being a knob.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,823

    I wonder if we'll get any statistical results from the Porton Down community antibody tests today?

    If not, perhaps one of those switched on journos might ask about it rather than being a knob.

    Those will be very interesting to see. Was today mooted as the day they would release some initial results?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586

    I wonder if we'll get any statistical results from the Porton Down community antibody tests today?

    If not, perhaps one of those switched on journos might ask about it rather than being a knob.

    I will bet a fiver that they will prefer to be knobs.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,753

    Serious question. Just tried walking up a few steps as a test. Was surprised how much heavy breathing it took. Legs feeling weak too. Ought I to worry? I've been self isolating since last Wednesday as I had a raised temperature. Called 111 and the call just ended on me each time.

    You ought to confine yourself to bed, drink plenty of fluids and take some paracetamol.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,753
    TOPPING said:

    Serious question. Just tried walking up a few steps as a test. Was surprised how much heavy breathing it took. Legs feeling weak too. Ought I to worry? I've been self isolating since last Wednesday as I had a raised temperature. Called 111 and the call just ended on me each time.

    You ought to confine yourself to bed, drink plenty of fluids and take some paracetamol.
    Of course I am not a doctor and am pretty useless and ignorant of all medical issues, but if no one is answering your call at 111.

    Then again, perhaps call the GP's surgery. By all accounts they are quieter than usual right now.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,477
    ukpaul said:

    ukpaul said:

    eadric said:

    ydoethur said:

    eadric said:

    828 dead in England yesterday

    Feck. I fear we're going to be the first European nation to hit 1000 in a day?

    Actually, scrap that: IIRC France has recorded way over 1000 in a day.
    You mean the French have beaten us AGAIN?

    FFS...
    France, the UK, Spain and Italy are all going to hit 20-40k deaths, if not more, on present data
    France has tightened its lockdown in response. Spain and Italy have, for weeks, seen the need for a more severe lockdown and here we have the media pushing and pushing on when our current, less complete, lockdown will end.

    It’s reckless, it’s irresponsible and I hope that one of the medical heads now tells them to STFU. The stories they need to tell are elsewhere.
    Absoluely agree, I can't believe that the media continues to rabbit on about easing the lockdown. We are many, many weeks away from this and it's high time this was made clear by Government.
    I was trying to work out why they are doing it and I think it comes down to the bubble that journalists and reporters are in (at least in this country, I’d noted a different approach from foreign correspondents). Their world revolves around the live connectedness that they are now being denied and they just can’t cope with it. That they are then projecting that onto the whole nation is just plain wrong.
    Not so. Many people are more concerned about the economic effects of an extended lockdown than the effects of the virus itself. You might not be one of them, but don't assume that everyone thinks like you.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,283
    rcs1000 said:

    eadric said:

    nico67 said:

    eadric said:

    828 dead in England yesterday

    Feck. I fear we're going to be the first European nation to hit 1000 in a day?

    Actually, scrap that: IIRC France has recorded way over 1000 in a day.
    The UK already has hit that but hasn’t been transparent on care home deaths . If you compare like for like the UK is running well ahead of French hospital deaths but is a week behind .

    I'm not sure I trust any nation's stats, TBH
    The ONS is following up, in the UK - including all deaths where COVID19 is mentioned in documentation. Such as on the death certificate.

    Which guarantees that more deaths will be attributed to COVID19 than will actually occur. This is because a non-trivial number of people diagnosed with COVID19 don't have it. Since they are not doing post-mortem tests on everyone, the diagnosis will be used on the death certificate.

    So the ONS number will err on the high side, if anything.
    I know there is a false negative problem with tests, but I wasn't aware of a significant false positive one. Could I have a source please.
    It is the fact that Coronavirus may be given as a reason for death on death certificate based on symptoms. It is therefore a presumption. it will not be based on a test. I am not sure there is a reliable PM test
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,214
    Hard to know the political impact on Trump - he seems to defy gravity sometimes.

    But it's clear that the US is in big, big trouble in terms of stopping the disease. It looks like they are going to do much worse than other countries in terms of cases and deaths. And their economic response looks likely to be slow and fumbling.

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Not holding out much hope for Trump's press response to improve....

    https://twitter.com/PreetBharara/status/1247730898340102144?s=20
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,283
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Serious question. Just tried walking up a few steps as a test. Was surprised how much heavy breathing it took. Legs feeling weak too. Ought I to worry? I've been self isolating since last Wednesday as I had a raised temperature. Called 111 and the call just ended on me each time.

    You ought to confine yourself to bed, drink plenty of fluids and take some paracetamol.
    Of course I am not a doctor and am pretty useless and ignorant of all medical issues, but if no one is answering your call at 111.

    Then again, perhaps call the GP's surgery. By all accounts they are quieter than usual right now.
    Good advice. Most GP surgeries are calling people back and giving advice in lieu of appointments
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774

    eadric said:

    ABZ said:

    eadric said:

    ydoethur said:

    eadric said:

    ydoethur said:

    eadric said:

    828 dead in England yesterday

    Feck. I fear we're going to be the first European nation to hit 1000 in a day?

    Actually, scrap that: IIRC France has recorded way over 1000 in a day.
    You mean the French have beaten us AGAIN?

    FFS...
    France, the UK, Spain and Italy are all going to hit 20-40k deaths, if not more, on present data
    Hopefully you mean ‘in total’ rather than ‘per day.’
    Yes, total first wave

    Sadly the next few days will be like this. Assuming we are tracking Italy and Spain (quite likely given the data about new admissions slowing down), both countries showed maximum daily deaths (in hospitals) about 2.5 weeks after lockdown - roughly where we are now - before starting to slowly decline.
    Which surely means you are over optimistic in thinking our first wave death toll will be 7-20,000 as you said yesterday?

    The curve suggests a total nearer 40,000 than 7,000

    I'm not criticising. We are all struggling with such vague data to hand.
    Noone knows how many will die. I find it rather unpleasant when people try to project it.
    We can all at least be grateful that Eadric was so crap at it.
  • Pro_Rata said:

    Foxy said:

    The timeline in this article is pretty damning.

    https://twitter.com/portraitinflesh/status/1247510090736906241?s=09

    And first...

    The thing about this is that so much of the day to day fight is in the power of governors. Does that negate Trump being held responsible, or does it merely make him seem even more impotent than his howling at the moon does?
    Ultimately the power of the Governors means that the impact on the US of Trump's failings will be less than if he'd been in charge of a more centralised country like the UK.

    But the Federal government still has a lot of power and it's still using some of that power in an actively harmful way - e.g. In the distribution of medical supplies.

    Any other President, any other political leader pretty much, would have been completely destroyed by the series of actively harmful steps that Trump has taken. Yet I wouldn't be surprised to see him re-elected.
    I think that is right. If anything, Covid-19 strengthens Trump's chances of reelection.

    First, because of American demographics, Democrat-led states will have higher than average deaths compared with the United States as a whole.

    Second, Trump placed Pence in charge of countering Covid-19 so if opinion does turn against the White House, the scapegoat Veep can be dumped.

    Third, by November, numbers should be falling. Trump will take credit, as he will for any progress on the cure or vaccine front, by pointing to the government's injection of cash.

    Fourth, a disease-led election places Biden's frailty in the spotlight.
    A few points on that.

    Firstly, is it really the case that states that will vote Democrat anyway are likely to be disproportionately affected? Sure, I can see New York is being hit hard as a densely populated area which got the infection early, and I can see sparsely populated Nebraska being relatively less affected. But key swing states like Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan etc are or will be affected substantially. And economically, all states are taking a hit (arguably, if you're economically hammered but with few deaths that's worse for Trump as harder for voters to understand WHY they are losing money).

    Secondly, of course deputy heads can always roll. But Trump is expected to and is fronting up briefings and so on. On such a huge issue, he can't credibly say, "I wasn't really on top of it - just assumed Mike had it under control, and was horrified to see he didn't..."

    Thirdly, the timelines may well work for a recovery in terms of fewer daily deaths, but not economically I suspect.

    Fourthly, I don't agree coronavirus exposes Biden's flaws. It is likely to make the campaign more reliant on set piece ads and managed media releases, whereas Biden's problems are with spontaneity and getting enthusiastic crowds - both of which become LESS important. He can also point to experience as VP - to the extent there will be concern about changing horses in mid-stream, that's far less of an issue with Biden than any other prospective Democratic candidate.

    I don't think this dooms Trump at all. For a start, at the moment his favourability has improved a bit (though less than most leaders at this time). But I really don't think it helps him - the economics are really bad, and there's serious potential to be portrayed as having been too relaxed early on.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,342
    ukpaul said:

    ukpaul said:

    eadric said:

    ydoethur said:

    eadric said:

    828 dead in England yesterday

    Feck. I fear we're going to be the first European nation to hit 1000 in a day?

    Actually, scrap that: IIRC France has recorded way over 1000 in a day.
    You mean the French have beaten us AGAIN?

    FFS...
    France, the UK, Spain and Italy are all going to hit 20-40k deaths, if not more, on present data
    France has tightened its lockdown in response. Spain and Italy have, for weeks, seen the need for a more severe lockdown and here we have the media pushing and pushing on when our current, less complete, lockdown will end.

    It’s reckless, it’s irresponsible and I hope that one of the medical heads now tells them to STFU. The stories they need to tell are elsewhere.
    Absoluely agree, I can't believe that the media continues to rabbit on about easing the lockdown. We are many, many weeks away from this and it's high time this was made clear by Government.
    I was trying to work out why they are doing it and I think it comes down to the bubble that journalists and reporters are in (at least in this country, I’d noted a different approach from foreign correspondents). Their world revolves around the live connectedness that they are now being denied and they just can’t cope with it. That they are then projecting that onto the whole nation is just plain wrong.
    It is also a profession for extroverts. They love meeting people and performing. They travel widely.They are projecting their unusual personality traits onto everyone else.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    rkrkrk said:

    Hard to know the political impact on Trump - he seems to defy gravity sometimes.

    But it's clear that the US is in big, big trouble in terms of stopping the disease. It looks like they are going to do much worse than other countries in terms of cases and deaths. And their economic response looks likely to be slow and fumbling.

    The question is whether ordinary Americans yet know that that they appear to be coping worse than any comparable country?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401

    Serious question. Just tried walking up a few steps as a test. Was surprised how much heavy breathing it took. Legs feeling weak too. Ought I to worry? I've been self isolating since last Wednesday as I had a raised temperature. Called 111 and the call just ended on me each time.

    Have you got an O2 levels measuring device?

    Keep trying on 111
    On the O2 levels measuring device front. I think there was a discussion on here a week or two ago about the best ones to get.

    Can anyone recall if there was any conclusion?

    I found this paper (2016) which says many of the home ones are inaccurate.

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27089002
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,947

    Ultimately the power of the Governors means that the impact on the US of Trump's failings will be less than if he'd been in charge of a more centralised country like the UK.

    But the Federal government still has a lot of power and it's still using some of that power in an actively harmful way - e.g. In the distribution of medical supplies.

    Any other President, any other political leader pretty much, would have been completely destroyed by the series of actively harmful steps that Trump has taken. Yet I wouldn't be surprised to see him re-elected.

    There are loads of Americans who support him regardless. His "base", and boy are they base, he owns them really.

    There are also loads who would not vote for him in a month of sundays.

    High floor, low ceiling - so he is about to be crushed!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    edited April 2020
    Savings rates are plummeting. As you’d expect.

    Just as Boris’s letter and info leaflet drops through the letterbox.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,113
    edited April 2020
    kinabalu said:

    Ultimately the power of the Governors means that the impact on the US of Trump's failings will be less than if he'd been in charge of a more centralised country like the UK.

    But the Federal government still has a lot of power and it's still using some of that power in an actively harmful way - e.g. In the distribution of medical supplies.

    Any other President, any other political leader pretty much, would have been completely destroyed by the series of actively harmful steps that Trump has taken. Yet I wouldn't be surprised to see him re-elected.

    There are loads of Americans who support him regardless. His "base", and boy are they base, he owns them really.

    There are also loads who would not vote for him in a month of sundays.

    High floor, low ceiling - so he is about to be crushed!
    Even by Biden? I laid Biden a bit yesterday for Dem nominee after seeing that clip. Also laid the Trump/Biden nomination combo with BF as two chances to win.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,503
    RobD said:

    Serious question. Just tried walking up a few steps as a test. Was surprised how much heavy breathing it took. Legs feeling weak too. Ought I to worry? I've been self isolating since last Wednesday as I had a raised temperature. Called 111 and the call just ended on me each time.

    I'd be moderately worried. I think the advice is to call 999 if you have any trouble breathing.
    I agree. You've had it nearly a week now. I'd keep trying 111, but call 999 if you don't get through, and certainly if you have any trouble breathing. Don't delay.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,578

    Not holding out much hope for Trump's press response to improve....

    https://twitter.com/PreetBharara/status/1247730898340102144?s=20

    Does she mean Bush?

    "Now watch this drive!"
  • ABZABZ Posts: 441
    Some positive thoughts:

    1. Lockdowns work (Spain and Italy are showing this)
    2. Other countries can get on top of this and stop spread (S. Korea / Taiwan)
    3. We have not handled the first wave optimally - no reason to do the same again next time!
    4. We are understanding more about the virus - both in terms of the basic biology but also in terms of clinical trials.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,147
    TGOHF666 said:

    felix said:

    My area of Almeria in SE Spainis one of 2 provinces in the country with the lowest numbers right from the start. We now have 388 cases - just 8 extra over tha past 2 days. We have a much stricter lockdown. And it is working. We may get some loosening by May. The UK must get real about the timescale needed to prevent a catastrophe.


    Not much left to restrict though is there - can't ban food shopping.

    I doubt limiting jogging hrs will make any difference.
    It's as much about the tone as anything - but here we aren't allowed out even for exercise and in the cities I think that does have some effect. Either way unless it is maintained for several more weeks the curve will flatten much more slowly and the danger to the health system is increased.
  • ukpaulukpaul Posts: 649

    ukpaul said:

    ukpaul said:

    eadric said:

    ydoethur said:

    eadric said:

    828 dead in England yesterday

    Feck. I fear we're going to be the first European nation to hit 1000 in a day?

    Actually, scrap that: IIRC France has recorded way over 1000 in a day.
    You mean the French have beaten us AGAIN?

    FFS...
    France, the UK, Spain and Italy are all going to hit 20-40k deaths, if not more, on present data
    France has tightened its lockdown in response. Spain and Italy have, for weeks, seen the need for a more severe lockdown and here we have the media pushing and pushing on when our current, less complete, lockdown will end.

    It’s reckless, it’s irresponsible and I hope that one of the medical heads now tells them to STFU. The stories they need to tell are elsewhere.
    Absoluely agree, I can't believe that the media continues to rabbit on about easing the lockdown. We are many, many weeks away from this and it's high time this was made clear by Government.
    I was trying to work out why they are doing it and I think it comes down to the bubble that journalists and reporters are in (at least in this country, I’d noted a different approach from foreign correspondents). Their world revolves around the live connectedness that they are now being denied and they just can’t cope with it. That they are then projecting that onto the whole nation is just plain wrong.
    Not so. Many people are more concerned about the economic effects of an extended lockdown than the effects of the virus itself. You might not be one of them, but don't assume that everyone thinks like you.
    The polls on this show support for a tougher lockdown much more than a relaxing of it. Yes, at some point, that needs to be considered but we are far off that yet. The government have given a clear indication, via their financial packages, that three months is the target and something that business needs to work towards.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,214
    IanB2 said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Hard to know the political impact on Trump - he seems to defy gravity sometimes.

    But it's clear that the US is in big, big trouble in terms of stopping the disease. It looks like they are going to do much worse than other countries in terms of cases and deaths. And their economic response looks likely to be slow and fumbling.

    The question is whether ordinary Americans yet know that that they appear to be coping worse than any comparable country?
    It's going to be hard to miss a recession this big I suspect.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Serious question. Just tried walking up a few steps as a test. Was surprised how much heavy breathing it took. Legs feeling weak too. Ought I to worry? I've been self isolating since last Wednesday as I had a raised temperature. Called 111 and the call just ended on me each time.

    You ought to confine yourself to bed, drink plenty of fluids and take some paracetamol.
    Of course I am not a doctor and am pretty useless and ignorant of all medical issues, but if no one is answering your call at 111.

    Then again, perhaps call the GP's surgery. By all accounts they are quieter than usual right now.
    Good advice. Most GP surgeries are calling people back and giving advice in lieu of appointments
    And many offer email/online consultations where the response that you get can be surprisingly fast, given that most surgeries are quite empty right now.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,210

    828 dead in England yesterday

    Not including

    Wales 33
    Scotland 70
    NI 5

    total UK 936 :(
    In percentage terms, that's much the same as yesterday, 15%. Last Tuesday and Wednesday's reported deaths were 27% and 31% increases. Both Tuesday and Wednesday seem to be higher, probably weekend reporting being a bit inefficient. Each day they report on deaths as of 5pm the previous day.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    RobD said:

    Serious question. Just tried walking up a few steps as a test. Was surprised how much heavy breathing it took. Legs feeling weak too. Ought I to worry? I've been self isolating since last Wednesday as I had a raised temperature. Called 111 and the call just ended on me each time.

    I'd be moderately worried. I think the advice is to call 999 if you have any trouble breathing.
    I agree. You've had it nearly a week now. I'd keep trying 111, but call 999 if you don't get through, and certainly if you have any trouble breathing. Don't delay.
    Agree with Nick - seek medical help
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    edited April 2020
    rkrkrk said:

    IanB2 said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Hard to know the political impact on Trump - he seems to defy gravity sometimes.

    But it's clear that the US is in big, big trouble in terms of stopping the disease. It looks like they are going to do much worse than other countries in terms of cases and deaths. And their economic response looks likely to be slow and fumbling.

    The question is whether ordinary Americans yet know that that they appear to be coping worse than any comparable country?
    It's going to be hard to miss a recession this big I suspect.
    Fact remains that Americans have a view of their country as being special, and insulated from the world’s problems. Sharing them is one thing, taking it worse is quite another. From my limited anecdotal contact with Americans I don’t feel that they yet see the size of the hole they might be heading for.

    And the Dow is so far up on the day.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    rcs1000 said:

    eadric said:

    nico67 said:

    eadric said:

    828 dead in England yesterday

    Feck. I fear we're going to be the first European nation to hit 1000 in a day?

    Actually, scrap that: IIRC France has recorded way over 1000 in a day.
    The UK already has hit that but hasn’t been transparent on care home deaths . If you compare like for like the UK is running well ahead of French hospital deaths but is a week behind .

    I'm not sure I trust any nation's stats, TBH
    The ONS is following up, in the UK - including all deaths where COVID19 is mentioned in documentation. Such as on the death certificate.

    Which guarantees that more deaths will be attributed to COVID19 than will actually occur. This is because a non-trivial number of people diagnosed with COVID19 don't have it. Since they are not doing post-mortem tests on everyone, the diagnosis will be used on the death certificate.

    So the ONS number will err on the high side, if anything.
    I know there is a false negative problem with tests, but I wasn't aware of a significant false positive one. Could I have a source please.
    Is this it?

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,267
    edited April 2020

    Pro_Rata said:

    Foxy said:

    The timeline in this article is pretty damning.

    https://twitter.com/portraitinflesh/status/1247510090736906241?s=09

    And first...

    The thing about this is that so much of the day to day fight is in the power of governors. Does that negate Trump being held responsible, or does it merely make him seem even more impotent than his howling at the moon does?
    Ultimately the power of the Governors means that the impact on the US of Trump's failings will be less than if he'd been in charge of a more centralised country like the UK.

    But the Federal government still has a lot of power and it's still using some of that power in an actively harmful way - e.g. In the distribution of medical supplies.

    Any other President, any other political leader pretty much, would have been completely destroyed by the series of actively harmful steps that Trump has taken. Yet I wouldn't be surprised to see him re-elected.
    I think that is right. If anything, Covid-19 strengthens Trump's chances of reelection.

    First, because of American demographics, Democrat-led states will have higher than average deaths compared with the United States as a whole.

    Second, Trump placed Pence in charge of countering Covid-19 so if opinion does turn against the White House, the scapegoat Veep can be dumped.

    Third, by November, numbers should be falling. Trump will take credit, as he will for any progress on the cure or vaccine front, by pointing to the government's injection of cash.

    Fourth, a disease-led election places Biden's frailty in the spotlight.
    A few points on that.

    Firstly, is it really the case that states that will vote Democrat anyway are likely to be disproportionately affected? Sure, I can see New York is being hit hard as a densely populated area which got the infection early, and I can see sparsely populated Nebraska being relatively less affected. But key swing states like Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan etc are or will be affected substantially. And economically, all states are taking a hit (arguably, if you're economically hammered but with few deaths that's worse for Trump as harder for voters to understand WHY they are losing money).

    Secondly, of course deputy heads can always roll. But Trump is expected to and is fronting up briefings and so on. On such a huge issue, he can't credibly say, "I wasn't really on top of it - just assumed Mike had it under control, and was horrified to see he didn't..."

    Thirdly, the timelines may well work for a recovery in terms of fewer daily deaths, but not economically I suspect.

    Fourthly, I don't agree coronavirus exposes Biden's flaws. It is likely to make the campaign more reliant on set piece ads and managed media releases, whereas Biden's problems are with spontaneity and getting enthusiastic crowds - both of which become LESS important. He can also point to experience as VP - to the extent there will be concern about changing horses in mid-stream, that's far less of an issue with Biden than any other prospective Democratic candidate.

    I don't think this dooms Trump at all. For a start, at the moment his favourability has improved a bit (though less than most leaders at this time). But I really don't think it helps him - the economics are really bad, and there's serious potential to be portrayed as having been too relaxed early on.
    If New York and California are disproportionately affected in terms of number of deaths the main impact will be on the popular vote, agreed, the Democrats will still get their EC votes and as you say swing states will also be hit, especially Florida
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,477
    ukpaul said:

    ukpaul said:

    ukpaul said:

    eadric said:

    ydoethur said:

    eadric said:

    828 dead in England yesterday

    Feck. I fear we're going to be the first European nation to hit 1000 in a day?

    Actually, scrap that: IIRC France has recorded way over 1000 in a day.
    You mean the French have beaten us AGAIN?

    FFS...
    France, the UK, Spain and Italy are all going to hit 20-40k deaths, if not more, on present data
    France has tightened its lockdown in response. Spain and Italy have, for weeks, seen the need for a more severe lockdown and here we have the media pushing and pushing on when our current, less complete, lockdown will end.

    It’s reckless, it’s irresponsible and I hope that one of the medical heads now tells them to STFU. The stories they need to tell are elsewhere.
    Absoluely agree, I can't believe that the media continues to rabbit on about easing the lockdown. We are many, many weeks away from this and it's high time this was made clear by Government.
    I was trying to work out why they are doing it and I think it comes down to the bubble that journalists and reporters are in (at least in this country, I’d noted a different approach from foreign correspondents). Their world revolves around the live connectedness that they are now being denied and they just can’t cope with it. That they are then projecting that onto the whole nation is just plain wrong.
    Not so. Many people are more concerned about the economic effects of an extended lockdown than the effects of the virus itself. You might not be one of them, but don't assume that everyone thinks like you.
    The polls on this show support for a tougher lockdown much more than a relaxing of it. Yes, at some point, that needs to be considered but we are far off that yet. The government have given a clear indication, via their financial packages, that three months is the target and something that business needs to work towards.
    Then let it be explicit about that, because business would probably accept that timeline. But government has not been explicit about that, to any real degree.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    TGOHF666 said:

    felix said:

    My area of Almeria in SE Spainis one of 2 provinces in the country with the lowest numbers right from the start. We now have 388 cases - just 8 extra over tha past 2 days. We have a much stricter lockdown. And it is working. We may get some loosening by May. The UK must get real about the timescale needed to prevent a catastrophe.


    Not much left to restrict though is there - can't ban food shopping.

    I doubt limiting jogging hrs will make any difference.
    Well you could only have one person in a car unless for essential support at medical appointments, you could restrict dog walks to within 50 meteres of your house by only one person, ban popping round to a neighbours for a chat even if you do keep 2m apart, obviously banning any form of house guest. Then enforce it went out our small town yesterday to hospital, stopped at top of road, showed driving license and said where and why I was going. They wished me luck and waved me on. Coming back from today’s visit showed them my arm with large plasters and barley looked at driving license when I said what it was. Waved through but most people were pulled over for further explanation.

    So you can tighten down, if I want exercise I could walk to the supermarket but I’ll stick with driving.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,575
    HYUFD said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Foxy said:

    The timeline in this article is pretty damning.

    https://twitter.com/portraitinflesh/status/1247510090736906241?s=09

    And first...

    The thing about this is that so much of the day to day fight is in the power of governors. Does that negate Trump being held responsible, or does it merely make him seem even more impotent than his howling at the moon does?
    Ultimately the power of the Governors means that the impact on the US of Trump's failings will be less than if he'd been in charge of a more centralised country like the UK.

    But the Federal government still has a lot of power and it's still using some of that power in an actively harmful way - e.g. In the distribution of medical supplies.

    Any other President, any other political leader pretty much, would have been completely destroyed by the series of actively harmful steps that Trump has taken. Yet I wouldn't be surprised to see him re-elected.
    I think that is right. If anything, Covid-19 strengthens Trump's chances of reelection.

    First, because of American demographics, Democrat-led states will have higher than average deaths compared with the United States as a whole.

    Second, Trump placed Pence in charge of countering Covid-19 so if opinion does turn against the White House, the scapegoat Veep can be dumped.

    Third, by November, numbers should be falling. Trump will take credit, as he will for any progress on the cure or vaccine front, by pointing to the government's injection of cash.

    Fourth, a disease-led election places Biden's frailty in the spotlight.
    A few points on that.

    Firstly, is it really the case that states that will vote Democrat anyway are likely to be disproportionately affected? Sure, I can see New York is being hit hard as a densely populated area which got the infection early, and I can see sparsely populated Nebraska being relatively less affected. But key swing states like Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan etc are or will be affected substantially. And economically, all states are taking a hit (arguably, if you're economically hammered but with few deaths that's worse for Trump as harder for voters to understand WHY they are losing money).

    Secondly, of course deputy heads can always roll. But Trump is expected to and is fronting up briefings and so on. On such a huge issue, he can't credibly say, "I wasn't really on top of it - just assumed Mike had it under control, and was horrified to see he didn't..."

    Thirdly, the timelines may well work for a recovery in terms of fewer daily deaths, but not economically I suspect.

    Fourthly, I don't agree coronavirus exposes Biden's flaws. It is likely to make the campaign more reliant on set piece ads and managed media releases, whereas Biden's problems are with spontaneity and getting enthusiastic crowds - both of which become LESS important. He can also point to experience as VP - to the extent there will be concern about changing horses in mid-stream, that's far less of an issue with Biden than any other prospective Democratic candidate.

    I don't think this dooms Trump at all. For a start, at the moment his favourability has improved a bit (though less than most leaders at this time). But I really don't think it helps him - the economics are really bad, and there's serious potential to be portrayed as having been too relaxed early on.
    If New York and California are disproportionately affected in terms of number of deaths the main impact will be on the popular vote, agreed, the Democrats will still get their EC votes and as you say swing states will also be hit, especially Florida
    What I meant was not that Dem voters will be pushing up the daisies but that Trump ads will point out that states run by the Democrats have done worse than average.
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,375
    nichomar said:

    TGOHF666 said:

    felix said:

    My area of Almeria in SE Spainis one of 2 provinces in the country with the lowest numbers right from the start. We now have 388 cases - just 8 extra over tha past 2 days. We have a much stricter lockdown. And it is working. We may get some loosening by May. The UK must get real about the timescale needed to prevent a catastrophe.


    Not much left to restrict though is there - can't ban food shopping.

    I doubt limiting jogging hrs will make any difference.
    Well you could only have one person in a car unless for essential support at medical appointments, you could restrict dog walks to within 50 meteres of your house by only one person, ban popping round to a neighbours for a chat even if you do keep 2m apart, obviously banning any form of house guest. Then enforce it went out our small town yesterday to hospital, stopped at top of road, showed driving license and said where and why I was going. They wished me luck and waved me on. Coming back from today’s visit showed them my arm with large plasters and barley looked at driving license when I said what it was. Waved through but most people were pulled over for further explanation.

    So you can tighten down, if I want exercise I could walk to the supermarket but I’ll stick with driving.
    We are getting daily emails from the Government reminding us that they want Construction to continue. I think they were surprised that so much of it shut down.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,147
    IanB2 said:

    Savings rates are plummeting. As you’d expect.

    Just as Boris’s letter and info leaflet drops through the letterbox.

    I'm a bit surprised - wtf are people spending money on. apart from food and some minimal online purchases I'm saving much more without any real effort. Easily about €100 a week on petrol alone and more again on restaurants, not to mention the €6000+ we'd have paid for a cruise this year had plans not changed!
This discussion has been closed.