I look forward to tomorrow’s hospital bulletin where we might find out if Johnson had the eggs Benedict for breakfast or whether he went for the more simple boiled eggs and soldiers .
Perhaps the media could start asking some decent questions . As in why is the government covering up care home deaths .
It's a decent question, if hostilely expressed, but nothing wrong with hostile questions. The french figures, I believe, didn't include such deaths either to begin with, but I don't know about other places, so there may be difficulties in gathering the data.
A whole bunch of countries either don't or did not
I have no idea why that would be but both France and Belgium had big spikes in deaths when they started including them.
I thought I heard our care home deaths were going to be included soon FWIW
A lot about care homes on Jeremy Vine this lunch time. Not happy places. Not only will hospitals not accept patients from them, but government demanding daily returns as to whether they have vacancies. If they do, these are filled with bedblockers from the hospital to free up beds. Bedblockers do not come with a clear test reult.
If hospitals really have an automatic policy of not accepting patients from residential homes, that's a pretty clear indication of the way this is being handled. And indeed the way the official numbers are being kept down.
Even if you don't have a blanket ban you have to have a rationing policy which says that only those with very good frailty scores will be treated. Very few people in care homes are going to have good frailty scores, so it comes to the same thing.
It should all be recorded in advance on the ReSPECT form process.
A lot of care home residents (including my much loved Mother in Law) would be more comfortable not being admitted. Indeed that is what she decided herself.
I started the move to my new home today. Came back to the place we’re leaving to find my daughter in tears. She had taken the dog for a walk along a footpath heading to Thwaites Fell. No-one around. An old woman came out of a house at the start of the footpath and started abusing my daughter, saying that she had no right to be there, she was breaking the law, she would call the police and have her arrested, that she did not have a local accent and should go back to London etc.
When my daughter protested that she has been living here three years and runs the local pub/restaurant, there was more muttering and abuse. Daughter fled, really upset.
Those who think that a sort of low-level abusive vigilantism based on ignorance of the laws, ignorance of peoples’ circumstances and an “I’m all right Jack/F**k off back to London” approach is somehow acceptable because “it is for our own good/for the NHS etc” might reflect on what this actually means in practice for those on the receiving end of ignorant abuse.
Daughter is not the first person living around here to receive such abuse.
There is a very nasty Facebook group making horrible comments about a local man, a well-known pianist, who is here looking after his elderly parents, one of whom has dementia. A message has been sent to the owner of the group to point out that he has his facts wrong about this man and that he should not assume that because someone is on a bicycle they are somehow some sort of ghastly outsider breaking the law.
For all the self-congratulations about clapathons there is a nasty curtain twitching denunciation-side of the British people which is also coming out, which is, frankly, nasty and which needs calling out.
"...there is a nasty curtain twitching denunciation-side of the British people which is also coming out, which is, frankly, nasty and which needs calling out."
Massively. It seems common to become submissive to, then an agent of, authority
I had just sort of assumed some people in most nations were a bit prone to the denouncing, authority submitting activity. He certainly wasn't the first to note it, but Terry Pratchett did once write about mankind's big design flaw - a tendency to bend at the knees.
I confess I think I'm a bit too much of a follower, quite passive in doing what I'm told.
This
"...there is a nasty curtain twitching denunciation-side of the British people which is also coming out, which is, frankly, nasty and which needs calling out."
,from cyclefree, is an excellent observation.
I've just burnt my curtains on the strength of it and now the neighbour's Venetian blinds are rattling.
Indeed. This is the flipside of a more disciplined and organised society, and is common to all North European cultures.
Canada is good in this respect, in my experience. An open-minded society that still manages to have a lot of more positive peer pressure to act in a community-minded and public-spirited way, rather than via ostracism and denunciation.
I started the move to my new home today. Came back to the place we’re leaving to find my daughter in tears. She had taken the dog for a walk along a footpath heading to Thwaites Fell. No-one around. An old woman came out of a house at the start of the footpath and started abusing my daughter, saying that she had no right to be there, she was breaking the law, she would call the police and have her arrested, that she did not have a local accent and should go back to London etc.
When my daughter protested that she has been living here three years and runs the local pub/restaurant, there was more muttering and abuse. Daughter fled, really upset.
Those who think that a sort of low-level abusive vigilantism based on ignorance of the laws, ignorance of peoples’ circumstances and an “I’m all right Jack/F**k off back to London” approach is somehow acceptable because “it is for our own good/for the NHS etc” might reflect on what this actually means in practice for those on the receiving end of ignorant abuse.
Daughter is not the first person living around here to receive such abuse.
There is a very nasty Facebook group making horrible comments about a local man, a well-known pianist, who is here looking after his elderly parents, one of whom has dementia. A message has been sent to the owner of the group to point out that he has his facts wrong about this man and that he should not assume that because someone is on a bicycle they are somehow some sort of ghastly outsider breaking the law.
For all the self-congratulations about clapathons there is a nasty curtain twitching denunciation-side of the British people which is also coming out, which is, frankly, nasty and which needs calling out.
"...there is a nasty curtain twitching denunciation-side of the British people which is also coming out, which is, frankly, nasty and which needs calling out."
Massively. It seems common to become submissive to, then an agent of, authority
Well put Cyclefree and Isam.
The stasi: "One of its main tasks was spying on the population, mainly through a vast network of citizens turned informants" (Wiki).
I started the move to my new home today. Came back to the place we’re leaving to find my daughter in tears. She had taken the dog for a walk along a footpath heading to Thwaites Fell. No-one around. An old woman came out of a house at the start of the footpath and started abusing my daughter, saying that she had no right to be there, she was breaking the law, she would call the police and have her arrested, that she did not have a local accent and should go back to London etc.
When my daughter protested that she has been living here three years and runs the local pub/restaurant, there was more muttering and abuse. Daughter fled, really upset.
Those who think that a sort of low-level abusive vigilantism based on ignorance of the laws, ignorance of peoples’ circumstances and an “I’m all right Jack/F**k off back to London” approach is somehow acceptable because “it is for our own good/for the NHS etc” might reflect on what this actually means in practice for those on the receiving end of ignorant abuse.
Daughter is not the first person living around here to receive such abuse.
There is a very nasty Facebook group making horrible comments about a local man, a well-known pianist, who is here looking after his elderly parents, one of whom has dementia. A message has been sent to the owner of the group to point out that he has his facts wrong about this man and that he should not assume that because someone is on a bicycle they are somehow some sort of ghastly outsider breaking the law.
For all the self-congratulations about clapathons there is a nasty curtain twitching denunciation-side of the British people which is also coming out, which is, frankly, nasty and which needs calling out.
"...there is a nasty curtain twitching denunciation-side of the British people which is also coming out, which is, frankly, nasty and which needs calling out."
Massively. It seems common to become submissive to, then an agent of, authority
Well put Cyclefree and Isam.
The stasi: "One of its main tasks was spying on the population, mainly through a vast network of citizens turned informants" (Wiki).
I think I mentioned the other day that the Gestapo ran into serious problems dealing with all the denunciations they got - it nearly overwhelmed them.
I started the move to my new home today. Came back to the place we’re leaving to find my daughter in tears. She had taken the dog for a walk along a footpath heading to Thwaites Fell. No-one around. An old woman came out of a house at the start of the footpath and started abusing my daughter, saying that she had no right to be there, she was breaking the law, she would call the police and have her arrested, that she did not have a local accent and should go back to London etc.
When my daughter protested that she has been living here three years and runs the local pub/restaurant, there was more muttering and abuse. Daughter fled, really upset.
Those who think that a sort of low-level abusive vigilantism based on ignorance of the laws, ignorance of peoples’ circumstances and an “I’m all right Jack/F**k off back to London” approach is somehow acceptable because “it is for our own good/for the NHS etc” might reflect on what this actually means in practice for those on the receiving end of ignorant abuse.
Daughter is not the first person living around here to receive such abuse.
There is a very nasty Facebook group making horrible comments about a local man, a well-known pianist, who is here looking after his elderly parents, one of whom has dementia. A message has been sent to the owner of the group to point out that he has his facts wrong about this man and that he should not assume that because someone is on a bicycle they are somehow some sort of ghastly outsider breaking the law.
For all the self-congratulations about clapathons there is a nasty curtain twitching denunciation-side of the British people which is also coming out, which is, frankly, nasty and which needs calling out.
"...there is a nasty curtain twitching denunciation-side of the British people which is also coming out, which is, frankly, nasty and which needs calling out."
Massively. It seems common to become submissive to, then an agent of, authority
Well put Cyclefree and Isam.
The stasi: "One of its main tasks was spying on the population, mainly through a vast network of citizens turned informants" (Wiki).
Of course we only have one side of this story upon which everyone is making a snap judgement. Hmmm.
"A former WHO executive and Number 10 advisor has today revealed his four-step strategy to ease Britain out of its draconian coronavirus lockdown. Professor Karol Sikora, ex-director of the UN body's cancer unit and former member of the Department of Health's Expert Advisory Group on cancer, said the first step would be to let small businesses with fewer than 50 staff open again on April 27. Downing Street should then allow all schools to reopen and ease social distancing measures rolled out across the UK on May 4, he said."
The Austrian plan looks at shops by size (400 square metres) allowing the smaller to open first.
The easing of social distancing is the big risk - what if we saw a second wave of cases in early to mid May?
The question is not "will we see another wave of CV-19 cases?", but "how rapidly will CV-19 cases grow once restrictions are eased?"
And that's why restrictions are going to be gradually removed, perhaps with different rules for different regions. The goal is not to have R of 0.1 (which would be amazing), but to have it in the 0.8 to 1.5 range. In other words, to ensure that instead of each infection turning into 3+ infections, to make sure than it's 1 or 1 and a bit.
If the second "wave" sees doubling of cases every 15 days, rather than every 3 days, then it can be managed rather better. It moves to being something chronic that we deal with, while treatment is improved and (hopefully) a vaccine created.
In the absence of any breeze such pollution as is created will remain in situ so that's no great surprise.
Once we get some breeze I suspect we'll see the pollution levels ease off.
I suspect pollen sufferers will have had a poor day today but the cooler and breezier forecast for the weekend will help them and may also help keep everyone indoors where they should be - Friday and Saturday might be the risky days.
Money talks there as it seems to be for Royal Ascot which the racing authorities seem determined will happen even if it has to be run behind closed doors.
The reasons - lack of insurance against a pandemic perhaps? No, Ascot will be covered - what it might lose in terms of the thick end of 300,000 people wining and dining is one thing but set against the loss of global media rights and the potential damage to the global bloodstock industry of the big races not happening it's small potatoes (they probably do serve small potatoes at Ascot).
I started the move to my new home today. Came back to the place we’re leaving to find my daughter in tears. She had taken the dog for a walk along a footpath heading to Thwaites Fell. No-one around. An old woman came out of a house at the start of the footpath and started abusing my daughter, saying that she had no right to be there, she was breaking the law, she would call the police and have her arrested, that she did not have a local accent and should go back to London etc.
When my daughter protested that she has been living here three years and runs the local pub/restaurant, there was more muttering and abuse. Daughter fled, really upset.
Those who think that a sort of low-level abusive vigilantism based on ignorance of the laws, ignorance of peoples’ circumstances and an “I’m all right Jack/F**k off back to London” approach is somehow acceptable because “it is for our own good/for the NHS etc” might reflect on what this actually means in practice for those on the receiving end of ignorant abuse.
Daughter is not the first person living around here to receive such abuse.
There is a very nasty Facebook group making horrible comments about a local man, a well-known pianist, who is here looking after his elderly parents, one of whom has dementia. A message has been sent to the owner of the group to point out that he has his facts wrong about this man and that he should not assume that because someone is on a bicycle they are somehow some sort of ghastly outsider breaking the law.
For all the self-congratulations about clapathons there is a nasty curtain twitching denunciation-side of the British people which is also coming out, which is, frankly, nasty and which needs calling out.
"...there is a nasty curtain twitching denunciation-side of the British people which is also coming out, which is, frankly, nasty and which needs calling out."
Massively. It seems common to become submissive to, then an agent of, authority
Well put Cyclefree and Isam.
The stasi: "One of its main tasks was spying on the population, mainly through a vast network of citizens turned informants" (Wiki).
Of course we only have one side of this story upon which everyone is making a snap judgement. Hmmm.
The question is not "will we see another wave of CV-19 cases?", but "how rapidly will CV-19 cases grow once restrictions are eased?"
And that's why restrictions are going to be gradually removed, perhaps with different rules for different regions. The goal is not to have R of 0.1 (which would be amazing), but to have it in the 0.8 to 1.5 range. In other words, to ensure that instead of each infection turning into 3+ infections, to make sure than it's 1 or 1 and a bit.
If the second "wave" sees doubling of cases every 15 days, rather than every 3 days, then it can be managed rather better. It moves to being something chronic that we deal with, while treatment is improved and (hopefully) a vaccine created.
As a classically educated overweight man in his late 50s, I am frankly scared if I contract this virus it won't end well for me.
In London I don't see how social distancing works once the restrictions are eased - it's not really effective now. The Underground will be as crowded as ever once businesses are allowed to re-open and as I've said before it will be those who will have no option but to go back to work who will be at the greatest risk.
"A former WHO executive and Number 10 advisor has today revealed his four-step strategy to ease Britain out of its draconian coronavirus lockdown. Professor Karol Sikora, ex-director of the UN body's cancer unit and former member of the Department of Health's Expert Advisory Group on cancer, said the first step would be to let small businesses with fewer than 50 staff open again on April 27. Downing Street should then allow all schools to reopen and ease social distancing measures rolled out across the UK on May 4, he said."
The Austrian plan looks at shops by size (400 square metres) allowing the smaller to open first.
The easing of social distancing is the big risk - what if we saw a second wave of cases in early to mid May?
The question is not "will we see another wave of CV-19 cases?", but "how rapidly will CV-19 cases grow once restrictions are eased?"
And that's why restrictions are going to be gradually removed, perhaps with different rules for different regions. The goal is not to have R of 0.1 (which would be amazing), but to have it in the 0.8 to 1.5 range. In other words, to ensure that instead of each infection turning into 3+ infections, to make sure than it's 1 or 1 and a bit.
If the second "wave" sees doubling of cases every 15 days, rather than every 3 days, then it can be managed rather better. It moves to being something chronic that we deal with, while treatment is improved and (hopefully) a vaccine created.
Any recurrence after easing, however gradual, will see an avalanche of "told you so" prats on social media.
This remarkable woman, one of the last of the kinder transport refugees, and well known locally died of Covid19 this week. Another bit of living history gone forever. These are not just numbers, though on PB people are good with numbers, they are much more than that.
"Obesity is a major risk factor for those with coronavirus, says France's chief epidemiologist, backing other studies that say obese patients are at greater risk of severe complications and remain contagious nearly twice as long
Delfraissy said he is particularly concerned about this in the US, where 42.4% of the population is obese"
"Obesity is a major risk factor for those with coronavirus, says France's chief epidemiologist, backing other studies that say obese patients are at greater risk of severe complications and remain contagious nearly twice as long
Delfraissy said he is particularly concerned about this in the US, where 42.4% of the population is obese"
I started the move to my new home today. Came back to the place we’re leaving to find my daughter in tears. She had taken the dog for a walk along a footpath heading to Thwaites Fell. No-one around. An old woman came out of a house at the start of the footpath and started abusing my daughter, saying that she had no right to be there, she was breaking the law, she would call the police and have her arrested, that she did not have a local accent and should go back to London etc.
When my daughter protested that she has been living here three years and runs the local pub/restaurant, there was more muttering and abuse. Daughter fled, really upset.
Those who think that a sort of low-level abusive vigilantism based on ignorance of the laws, ignorance of peoples’ circumstances and an “I’m all right Jack/F**k off back to London” approach is somehow acceptable because “it is for our own good/for the NHS etc” might reflect on what this actually means in practice for those on the receiving end of ignorant abuse.
Daughter is not the first person living around here to receive such abuse.
There is a very nasty Facebook group making horrible comments about a local man, a well-known pianist, who is here looking after his elderly parents, one of whom has dementia. A message has been sent to the owner of the group to point out that he has his facts wrong about this man and that he should not assume that because someone is on a bicycle they are somehow some sort of ghastly outsider breaking the law.
For all the self-congratulations about clapathons there is a nasty curtain twitching denunciation-side of the British people which is also coming out, which is, frankly, nasty and which needs calling out.
"...there is a nasty curtain twitching denunciation-side of the British people which is also coming out, which is, frankly, nasty and which needs calling out."
Massively. It seems common to become submissive to, then an agent of, authority
Well put Cyclefree and Isam.
The stasi: "One of its main tasks was spying on the population, mainly through a vast network of citizens turned informants" (Wiki).
Of course we only have one side of this story upon which everyone is making a snap judgement. Hmmm.
Quite. Pot/ kettle?
I believe that most people have commented on a general feature of humans - their readiness to turn into nasty denouncers when convinced of their moral superiority. There is plenty of evidence of such behaviour, from the past, sadly.
I don't think anyone has suggested a counter lynch mob.
"Obesity is a major risk factor for those with coronavirus, says France's chief epidemiologist, backing other studies that say obese patients are at greater risk of severe complications and remain contagious nearly twice as long
Delfraissy said he is particularly concerned about this in the US, where 42.4% of the population is obese"
A report on a US news blog (quoted a paper but I missed which one)
circa 3500 Madrid area nursing home residents died with CV symptoms in March - they were not tested
That is just Madrid.........
Part of the problem, though, is that most nursing home residents who pass away will have coughs and the like anyway. So, while it's entirely possible they had CV-19, it's also really hard to know for sure.
What we need to know is what morbidity in Spain and Italy currently look like compared to normal. I.e., how many people normally die, and how many people are dying now.
This remarkable woman, one of the last of the kinder transport refugees, and well known locally died of Covid19 this week. Another bit of living history gone forever. These are not just numbers, though on PB people are good with numbers, they are much more than that.
Anyone left that still believes the Chinese numbers?
We know they tried to cover it up early on, more evidence of that doesn't tell us whether their numbers are correct now.
The reason to believe their current case numbers are probably not massively covered up isn't because the Chinese government doesn't lie - it lies all the time - it's because they're putting everything they have into fighting the disease, and you can't fight it if you can't see it. Relatedly, the reason to think their death numbers are correct at least to within an order of magnitude is because the things they did seem to have worked when other countries did them, and some of those other countries lie less pathologically.
PS I don't think there's particularly a left-right angle to this???
Ironically just as the issue of healthcare is thrust even more into the November election campaign and where Sanders message might have got more traction his campaign comes to an end.
"Obesity is a major risk factor for those with coronavirus, says France's chief epidemiologist, backing other studies that say obese patients are at greater risk of severe complications and remain contagious nearly twice as long
Delfraissy said he is particularly concerned about this in the US, where 42.4% of the population is obese"
This UK ICNARC report shows that the BMI spread of ICU patients to date matches the population as a whole (so a high BMI doesn't appear to make you more likely to need ICU care).
And for those admitted to ICU, survival chance if your BMI is <25 is not massively better than if your BMI is >30 (56.4% versus 42.4%).
"Obesity is a major risk factor for those with coronavirus, says France's chief epidemiologist, backing other studies that say obese patients are at greater risk of severe complications and remain contagious nearly twice as long
Delfraissy said he is particularly concerned about this in the US, where 42.4% of the population is obese"
This UK ICNARC report shows that the BMI spread of ICU patients to date matches the population as a whole (so a high BMI doesn't appear to make you more likely to need ICU care).
And for those admitted to ICU, survival chance if your BMI is <25 is not massively better than if your BMI is >30 (56.4% versus 42.4%).
Comments
https://www.resus.org.uk/respect/
A lot of care home residents (including my much loved Mother in Law) would be more comfortable not being admitted. Indeed that is what she decided herself.
Canada is good in this respect, in my experience. An open-minded society that still manages to have a lot of more positive peer pressure to act in a community-minded and public-spirited way, rather than via ostracism and denunciation.
The stasi: "One of its main tasks was spying on the population, mainly through a vast network of citizens turned informants" (Wiki).
https://twitter.com/REWearmouth/status/1247969666015821828?s=20
And that's why restrictions are going to be gradually removed, perhaps with different rules for different regions. The goal is not to have R of 0.1 (which would be amazing), but to have it in the 0.8 to 1.5 range. In other words, to ensure that instead of each infection turning into 3+ infections, to make sure than it's 1 or 1 and a bit.
If the second "wave" sees doubling of cases every 15 days, rather than every 3 days, then it can be managed rather better. It moves to being something chronic that we deal with, while treatment is improved and (hopefully) a vaccine created.
Once we get some breeze I suspect we'll see the pollution levels ease off.
I suspect pollen sufferers will have had a poor day today but the cooler and breezier forecast for the weekend will help them and may also help keep everyone indoors where they should be - Friday and Saturday might be the risky days.
Still sneaky - doubly so in trying to somehow deploy the forces of the grand wizard Meeks as a smokescreen here.
Edit: and anyway Charles has stolen the thread!
The reasons - lack of insurance against a pandemic perhaps? No, Ascot will be covered - what it might lose in terms of the thick end of 300,000 people wining and dining is one thing but set against the loss of global media rights and the potential damage to the global bloodstock industry of the big races not happening it's small potatoes (they probably do serve small potatoes at Ascot).
In London I don't see how social distancing works once the restrictions are eased - it's not really effective now. The Underground will be as crowded as ever once businesses are allowed to re-open and as I've said before it will be those who will have no option but to go back to work who will be at the greatest risk.
https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2018/nov/24/woman-saved-jewish-family-history-housekeeper
Delfraissy said he is particularly concerned about this in the US, where 42.4% of the population is obese"
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-8200025/Obesity-major-COVID-19-risk-factor-says-French-chief-epidemiologist.html
circa 3500 Madrid area nursing home residents died with CV symptoms in March - they were not tested
That is just Madrid.........
I don't think anyone has suggested a counter lynch mob.
https://www.cdc.gov/obesity/data/adult.html
What we need to know is what morbidity in Spain and Italy currently look like compared to normal. I.e., how many people normally die, and how many people are dying now.
The reason to believe their current case numbers are probably not massively covered up isn't because the Chinese government doesn't lie - it lies all the time - it's because they're putting everything they have into fighting the disease, and you can't fight it if you can't see it. Relatedly, the reason to think their death numbers are correct at least to within an order of magnitude is because the things they did seem to have worked when other countries did them, and some of those other countries lie less pathologically.
PS I don't think there's particularly a left-right angle to this???
That would be some TV debate. Although Beelzebub would be permanently pissed off.
"He stole my policy. That was MY policy...."
This UK ICNARC report shows that the BMI spread of ICU patients to date matches the population as a whole (so a high BMI doesn't appear to make you more likely to need ICU care).
And for those admitted to ICU, survival chance if your BMI is <25 is not massively better than if your BMI is >30 (56.4% versus 42.4%).
https://www.icnarc.org/About/Latest-News/2020/04/04/Report-On-2249-Patients-Critically-Ill-With-Covid-19
For laying pipe you need a toolpusher, as they say.
Thread done