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The Tories still very strong favourite to hold Newark. Ukip now out to 5/1 pic.twitter.com/8cY37u9Vvs
Comments
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Labour have no chance here or anywhere rural south of Tolpuddle.
Meanwhile "Stop the War" - want to er.. start a war !
http://www.stopwar.org.uk/article/time-to-go-to-war-with-israel-as-the-only-path-to-peace-in-the-middle-east#.U2uYJfldU1I0 -
16000+ majority, 164th or some such safest seat. Conservatives miles ahead in the local council elections. Favourable demographic shifts, away from UKIP's heartland of the saxon shore. Cons down ~ 4 points, Labout up ~ 7 points in the polls from GE2010 (A far bigger swing is needed)
I'm happy to be on the Tories here at 8-11.0 -
Personally I think it is a fairly nailed on tory hold given that UKIP have appointed Helmer. But the odds are terrible for supporting the tories at the moment. If they moved out I would be tempted.0
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I trust Dr Robert Waller's judgement that Labour have very little chance of winning.0
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Maybe not?DavidL said:Personally I think it is a fairly nailed on tory hold given that UKIP have appointed Helmer. But the odds are terrible for supporting the tories at the moment. If they moved out I would be tempted.
"Ukip's Newark byelection candidate Roger Helmer was greeted like a celebrity as he launched his campaign to be the party's first MP – in a sign his controversial comments about rape and homosexuality appear to have had little effect on the electorate."
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/may/07/roger-helmer-cheered-launching-newark-byelection-campaign0 -
Betting w/o Conservatives would be an interesting market.0
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FPT:
Newark constituency census data, 2011:
Total population: 98,937
Total aged 18+: 78,885
Total aged 50+: 40,169
Percentage of voting age population aged 50+: 50.9%
(a) This doesn't take into account the fact that older people are more likely to vote.
(b) The population will have aged slightly since 2011.
http://www.neighbourhood.statistics.gov.uk/dissemination/LeadTableView.do?a=7&b=6508025&c=newark&d=27&e=61&g=6456174&i=1001x1003x1032x1004&m=0&r=1&s=1399549367236&enc=1&dsFamilyId=25450 -
Afternoon all
Can't really comment on Newark - something will happen, it usually does.
On an unrelated, we've had a glossy and extremely anodyne leaflet from the local Conservatives - last time Labour polled 70% in my Ward and it's hard to see the Tories (who have support from some shop owners but not necessarily the workers or the customers) overturning that kind of majority.
The leaflet tells me almost nothing about what a Conservative-controlled Newham would look like - it makes the traditional jibes about Labour (some of which are justified) and witters on about sports clubs as "the answer" but none of the big issues are tackled such as housing, waste and parking beyond a commitment to "lifting the cost of parking for residents and small business". Now, as the permits are free for residents, that's going to be a tough one.
The cynic in me suggests it's a manifesto written by business people for business people and I suspect in fifteen days time, Labour will still be in charge at East Ham Town Hall though whether it's with 60 seats out of 60 or perhaps 57 remains to be seen.0 -
I've just a punt on a Tory win in Newark at 4/7. It's the only betting account I've got money in :-)0
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The previous successful Tory defence while in government involved the Con share dropping from 61% to 37%. That was Richmond (Yorks) in 1989:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richmond_(Yorks)_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#Elections_in_the_1980s0 -
He will appeal to certain demographics but a Diane James type figure was far more dangerous to the tories. She sounded more like a tory than the tory candidate (and acted more like one too).isam said:
Maybe not?DavidL said:Personally I think it is a fairly nailed on tory hold given that UKIP have appointed Helmer. But the odds are terrible for supporting the tories at the moment. If they moved out I would be tempted.
"Ukip's Newark byelection candidate Roger Helmer was greeted like a celebrity as he launched his campaign to be the party's first MP – in a sign his controversial comments about rape and homosexuality appear to have had little effect on the electorate."
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/may/07/roger-helmer-cheered-launching-newark-byelection-campaign
I may well be proved wrong (hence wanting better odds) but I think Helmer will prove less of a temptation and the chances of him saying something foolish are high. Helmer is only likely to win if the Labour vote collapses to him tactically and I don't think that is very likely either.
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Good manBlue_rog said:I've just a punt on a Tory win in Newark at 4/7. It's the only betting account I've got money in :-)
Two people relatively local to the area who post here, @Macisback reckon 33-1 would be fair on Labour here and Richard Tyndall put UKIP @ 10-1... still always slightly nervous about going against OGH...
If I had the float for it I'd lay the Lib Dems at any price on Betfair the day before.0 -
I wouldn't bet against the Lib Dems losing their deposit here, let alone winning.Pulpstar said:
Good manBlue_rog said:I've just a punt on a Tory win in Newark at 4/7. It's the only betting account I've got money in :-)
Two people relatively local to the area who post here, @Macisback reckon 33-1 would be fair on Labour here and Richard Tyndall put UKIP @ 10-1... still always slightly nervous about going against OGH...
If I had the float for it I'd lay the Lib Dems at any price on Betfair the day before.
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My money is on the Conservatives. If this loses, I shall look on it as paying for education.0
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FPT
I had a computer issue yesterday morning. Actually, it was more of a human issue.Morris_Dancer said:Good afternoon, everyone.
Meat should be clearly labelled.
Mr. K, jein. Cameron's on the receiving end of a hospital pass from a smirking idiot called Blair.
Hmm. Might be having computer issues. Hoping not. Chrome crashed earlier, and for some reason 'forgot' my homepage, and the search bar (not the URL bit at the top) is now missing in new tabs. Malwarebytes caught a solitary problem, running more scans now.
It'd be nice if computers just worked.
I try to prepare my posts one day ahead and on Tuesday evening when I got in late (slightly drunk) I started work on this morning's opus. I draw on previous posts to try to ensure some continuity and consistency, so I used the completed draft of yesterday's post to borrow some things from. I woke up yesterday morning hungover to find that I had two early drafts of this morning's post and no draft of yesterday's post, with only an hour to put the post that I'd intended to put online before I had to go into work. Control C, Control V is a dangerous function under the influence.
It's fortunate that I could remember more or less what I wanted to say.
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Fighting for peace akin to *^&%**&! for virginity, something on those lines.TGOHF said:Labour have no chance here or anywhere rural south of Tolpuddle.
Meanwhile "Stop the War" - want to er.. start a war !
http://www.stopwar.org.uk/article/time-to-go-to-war-with-israel-as-the-only-path-to-peace-in-the-middle-east#.U2uYJfldU1I
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Can I say a Thankyou to Shadsy for making a market on the Kingston council result.
The lib Dems are 6/1 to retain control withe Cons 2/5 and NOC 3/1. This will give us a good idea of how the LD/Tory marginals are going to fall.0 -
Tolpuddle is in Dorset.TGOHF said:Labour have no chance here or anywhere rural south of Tolpuddle.
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Mike: It's misleading to state 25 years as one period. They were out of power for 13 years of that.
MikeK: FPT
I don't go to Subway often, because I don't like their sandwiches. Last time I did I had a BLT. Horrible.
As an aside, this is is their basic menu.
http://www.subway.co.uk/menu/subs/lite-subs/ham.aspx
http://www.subway.co.uk/menu/subs/lite-subs/subway-club.aspx
http://www.subway.co.uk/menu/subs/lite-subs/turkey-breast-and-ham.aspx
http://www.subway.co.uk/menu/subs/breakfast/bacon.aspx
http://www.subway.co.uk/menu/subs/breakfast/bacon-egg.aspx
http://www.subway.co.uk/menu/subs/breakfast/mega-breakfast.aspx
http://www.subway.co.uk/menu/subs/breakfast/sausage-egg.aspx
http://www.subway.co.uk/menu/subs/breakfast/sausage.aspx
Last time I checked "ham", "sausages" and "bacon" came from pigs.
Alternatively, you could look at what they actually say on their website:
http://www.subway.co.uk/menu/halal.aspx
CERTIFIED HALAL MEATS
Due to the growing popularity of the SUBWAY® chain, with the diverse multicultural population across the UK and Ireland, we put a programme in place in 2007 to ensure that the population demographic is taken into account when new store openings are considered in order that we meet consumer demand in each location. [...] we require suppliers of Halal products to adopt the stunning of animals prior to their slaughter. [...] All Halal SUBWAY® stores have numerous signs stating that they serve Halal food. These are situated on the menu panels, nutritional information and in the front window of the store. [...]
Do all SUBWAY® stores serve Halal meats?
No. Only a limited number of SUBWAY® stores serve Certified Halal meats. For a list of participating stores please contact: halal@subway.co.uk or go to the store finder at www.subway.com
Shoddy journalism by the Telegraph. But Mike, you're old enough to realsie that not everything you read is true.
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Mr. Flashman (deceased), stop the war means start the war! Freedom is slavery! Ed Miliband is intellectually self-confident!0
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Michael Crick just asked an intriguing question on twitter, when was the last time a by-election was won by someone aged 70 or more?
I found Henry Armstrong in Mid Armagh in 1921 at 76 but think there must be more recent exemplars.0 -
Labour's lead is down another touch on UKPR.
The figures are now Lab 36%, Con 33%, UKP 15%, Lib Dem 9%, Green 3%.0 -
@MikeK FPT
re: Subway:
Brendan O'Neill believes that Subway is "default halal" because 185 stores are halal.
Subway currently has 1,798 stores in the UK & Ireland.
10% is not "default" anything
http://www.subway.co.uk/business/franchise/facts_and_history.aspx0 -
Mr. Jim, Seleucus was (briefly) master of the world when he bested Lysimachus when they were both in their 70s. He was then treacherously slain by Ptolemy Keraunos, who managed to almost immediately lose his power (and his life).
Mind you, that was in Asia Minor and Thrace, I think, rather than Newark.0 -
The Ayatollah Khomeini came to power aged 76.
There is some overlap between his views and those of Roger Helmer, though I fear that they might have differed on the subject of halal meat.0 -
Mike do you think that 6/1 represents good value on the LDs in Kingston?0
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Mr. Antifrank, and Helmer doesn't have a tribute song:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aGBfYoldZQ40 -
FPT - the rather unpleasant discussion on "Leftard".
UKIP supporters would be well advised to steer the conversation away from the relative IQs of political party supporters:
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/2008/nov/03/greenpolitics-liberaldemocrats0 -
Looking at it Enoch Powell was 73 in 1986 when the Unionists threw a hissy. So perhaps that is it, although unique circumstances.0
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Must congratulate Southam Observer there. Managed to completely deflect from the Asian and Black UKIP supporters being called racist by Labour party endorsed protestors, by harping on about the word used in retaliation.CarlottaVance said:FPT - the rather unpleasant discussion on "Leftard".
UKIP supporters would be well advised to steer the conversation away from the relative IQs of political party supporters:
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/2008/nov/03/greenpolitics-liberaldemocrats
Fantastic distraction technique0 -
Did he introduce the term into the discussion? Argue for its acceptability?isam said:
Must congratulate Southam ObserverCarlottaVance said:FPT - the rather unpleasant discussion on "Leftard".
UKIP supporters would be well advised to steer the conversation away from the relative IQs of political party supporters:
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/2008/nov/03/greenpolitics-liberaldemocrats
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FPT - Cyclefree, a superb post on halal meat that entirely mirrors my views.0
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No. Asian and Black UKIP candidates were called racists by UAF protestors last night. A mixed race guy was almost reduced to tears by being called a "fake" alsoCarlottaVance said:
Did he introduce the term into the discussion? Argue for its acceptability?isam said:
Must congratulate Southam ObserverCarlottaVance said:FPT - the rather unpleasant discussion on "Leftard".
UKIP supporters would be well advised to steer the conversation away from the relative IQs of political party supporters:
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/2008/nov/03/greenpolitics-liberaldemocrats
One of the abused called the protestors "leftards" in a tweet afterwards
Southam managed to turn the last thread into the reaction of the UKIP guy while no one mentioned the absurdity of the original insult0 -
FPT
They can't admit half the stuff that's been going on for years without either admittingAndyJS said:I like this paragraph from the Furedi article I posted below:
"It is not merely the case that, when it comes to UKIP, the establishment doesn’t get it. The establishment also can’t get it, because to acknowledge the genuine dynamic behind UKIP’s support would mean facing up to its own isolation from large sections of the British public. In reality, the failure of the current media campaign against UKIP shows that the members of the political establishment are confronted by a substantial group of voters whose values and way of life contradict their social etiquette and cultural assumptions. However, rather than face up to its isolation from a significant section of the electorate, the political class continues to evade taking responsibility for its own failures."
a) they knew but covered it up for years
or
b) they are so insulated from the consequences of their actions they hadn't got the faintest idea it was happening
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FPT The Aaron/Henry thing might be over (edit for politeness) names that some people see as chav names.0
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The Telegraph, which has been running with the David Davis inspired excitable hysterics "Cameron will resign if the union falls" line grudgingly start to concede defeat.......First Kirkup.......
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/jameskirkup/100270671/cameron-wouldnt-quit-if-scotland-votes-yes-but-he-would-forever-be-the-man-who-lost-the-union0 -
Aided and abetted by UKIP supporters who sought to defend the term......isam said:
Southam managed to turn the last thread into the reaction of the UKIP guyCarlottaVance said:
Did he introduce the term into the discussion? Argue for its acceptability?isam said:
Must congratulate Southam ObserverCarlottaVance said:FPT - the rather unpleasant discussion on "Leftard".
UKIP supporters would be well advised to steer the conversation away from the relative IQs of political party supporters:
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/2008/nov/03/greenpolitics-liberaldemocrats
......remind me, who is it is argued are "a bit thick"?0 -
Another reason for correct labelling of Halal:
Eating meat killed in a ritualistic manner (Kutha meat): Sikhs are strictly prohibited from eating meat killed in a ritualistic manner (such as halal or kosher, known as Kutha meat[6] ), or any meat where langar is served.[7] In some small Sikh Sects, i.e. Akhand Kirtani Jatha eating any meat is believed to be forbidden, but this is not a universally held belief.[8] The meat eaten by Sikhs is known as Jhatka meat.0 -
There was a Labour bloke elected in 1946 at Ogmore, and a Tory in Ormskirk in 1951.ToryJim said:Michael Crick just asked an intriguing question on twitter, when was the last time a by-election was won by someone aged 70 or more?
I found Henry Armstrong in Mid Armagh in 1921 at 76 but think there must be more recent exemplars.
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We should be getting a costs judgment tomorrow afternoon from Sweeney J in R v Huhne & Pryce. The Crown seeks to recover its costs. Mr Huhne maintains that the only reason those costs were so high is because the Crown intended to call Ms Briscoe as a witness.0
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educationalisam said:
Must congratulate Southam Observer there. Managed to completely deflect from the Asian and Black UKIP supporters being called racist by Labour party endorsed protestors, by harping on about the word used in retaliation.CarlottaVance said:FPT - the rather unpleasant discussion on "Leftard".
UKIP supporters would be well advised to steer the conversation away from the relative IQs of political party supporters:
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/2008/nov/03/greenpolitics-liberaldemocrats
Fantastic distraction technique0 -
I said I could understand why an Asian who is called racist by someone who is white & middle class might say something in temper.CarlottaVance said:
Aided and abetted by UKIP supporters who sought to defend the term......isam said:
Southam managed to turn the last thread into the reaction of the UKIP guyCarlottaVance said:
Did he introduce the term into the discussion? Argue for its acceptability?isam said:
Must congratulate Southam ObserverCarlottaVance said:FPT - the rather unpleasant discussion on "Leftard".
UKIP supporters would be well advised to steer the conversation away from the relative IQs of political party supporters:
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/2008/nov/03/greenpolitics-liberaldemocrats
......remind me, who is it is argued are "a bit thick"?
Who hasn't?
As I say, no one is talking about that on here, where as if UKIP supporters starting digging out ethnic minorities, I would say the focus would be on that, not the reaction of the abused
Partisan politics trumps all it seems
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Think they'll get them back. Maybe 80% or so ?Life_ina_market_town said:We should be getting a costs judgment tomorrow afternoon from Sweeney J in R v Huhne & Pryce. The Crown seeks to recover its costs. Mr Huhne maintains that the only reason those costs were so high is because the Crown intended to call Ms Briscoe as a witness.
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Partisan political trumps all it seems
Let's face it Isam, last night could hardly have been a bigger victory for Farage as it is, I don;t know what you are moaning about. When are you going to work out that UKIP WANTS these attacks.0 -
The fly in the ointment in predicting Newark is if UKIP pull off a sensation in the Euros, which looks likely.
It will be headline news in the final days before the by-election...
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There is a reason that this matter was postponed until after the determination of R v Briscoe. Huhne's argument is that seeking the production order against Associated Newspapers Ltd was necessary to prevent the Crown relying on her. In a sense, he was right about that. On the other hand, the Crown say he was guilty, knew he was guilty and should have confessed to the indictment at the first opportunity, and accordingly, that he should bear the costs. It's finely balanced, but it is certainly the case that Huhne's tactics really irritated the judge at the time.Pulpstar said:Think they'll get them back. Maybe 80% or so ?
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Mr. Crosby, when will postal votes for the by-election be sent out?
One more point against them is that voting can occur before polling day, so if a revelation emerges voters can't change their mind.0 -
I've been called, inter alia, a racist and an Uncle Tom for being a Tory from an ethnic minority.isam said:
I said I could understand why an Asian who is called racist by someone who is white & middle class might say something in temper.CarlottaVance said:
Aided and abetted by UKIP supporters who sought to defend the term......isam said:
Southam managed to turn the last thread into the reaction of the UKIP guyCarlottaVance said:
Did he introduce the term into the discussion? Argue for its acceptability?isam said:
Must congratulate Southam ObserverCarlottaVance said:FPT - the rather unpleasant discussion on "Leftard".
UKIP supporters would be well advised to steer the conversation away from the relative IQs of political party supporters:
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/2008/nov/03/greenpolitics-liberaldemocrats
......remind me, who is it is argued are "a bit thick"?
Who hasn't?
As I say, no one is talking about that on here, where as if UKIP supporters starting digging out ethnic minorities, I would say the focus would be on that, not the reaction of the abused
Partisan politics trumps all it seems
I didn't use insults like leftards towards my accusers.
I replied with responses like "I'd love to talk but I've got to go out and
A) Go stick burning crosses in a black family's yard
Shove shit through the letterbox of Muslims families
C) Campaign for Phil Woolas"
C) Is my favourite.
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If I apply the Corby 2012 by-election swings to the Newark 2010GE shares then the result looks like:
Con 38.3%
Lab 32.1%
UKIP 18.1%
LD 11.5%
On the face of it this looks quite close, and so it would be hard to disagree with Mike that Labour are good value at 4-1. In addition, it is quite likely that the Lib Dem vote will decline to a level where they flirt with losing their deposit, which would potentially put Labour and the Conservatives on level pegging if that vote share all went to Labour.
However, Labour were doing consistently better in the national opinion polls at the time of the Corby by-election than they are now, and UKIP are doing consistently better in the national opinion polls now than they were in 2012.
My best guess would be something like:
Con 35%
Lab 30%
UKIP 25%
Lib Dem 5%
Other 5%
However, with +/- 5% error bars on all of those figures then I think the Conservative price is too short, even if I would still make them favourite.0 -
I have to change trains at Newark next week.
I shall ask the locals whilst I wait and report back.0 -
Think you have to cut people slack when they are on the receiving end though. I always think the person that provoked the trouble deserves a lot more stick than the one who retaliatesTheScreamingEagles said:
I've been called, inter alia, a racist and an Uncle Tom for being a Tory from an ethnic minority.isam said:
I said I could understand why an Asian who is called racist by someone who is white & middle class might say something in temper.CarlottaVance said:
Aided and abetted by UKIP supporters who sought to defend the term......isam said:
Southam managed to turn the last thread into the reaction of the UKIP guyCarlottaVance said:
Did he introduce the term into the discussion? Argue for its acceptability?isam said:
Must congratulate Southam ObserverCarlottaVance said:FPT - the rather unpleasant discussion on "Leftard".
UKIP supporters would be well advised to steer the conversation away from the relative IQs of political party supporters:
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/2008/nov/03/greenpolitics-liberaldemocrats
......remind me, who is it is argued are "a bit thick"?
Who hasn't?
As I say, no one is talking about that on here, where as if UKIP supporters starting digging out ethnic minorities, I would say the focus would be on that, not the reaction of the abused
Partisan politics trumps all it seems
I didn't use insults like leftards towards my accusers.
I replied with responses like "I'd love to talk but I've got to go out and
A) Go stick burning crosses in a black family's yard Shove shit through the letterbox of Muslims families
C) Campaign for Phil Woolas"
C) Is my favourite.
Boycs in the ITV studio by the way for the IPL0 -
Is that a euphemism ? Like changing at Baker St ?TheScreamingEagles said:I have to change trains at Newark next week.
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Mr. Flashman (deceased), what does changing at Baker St mean?0
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Had the postal vote yesterday, returned envelope yesterday evening. Still can't believe that my wife was in a coffee shop last Friday and didn't notice the arrival of Ed Miliband and his 12 minders. Have had nothing from Labour or UKIP for the Ward election. They did win it once, when Blair was leader, but perhaps they hope that The Greens will take it from the LDs, and that UKIP will skim off votes from the Tory. Had plenty of LD bumf, and the MP at the door.0
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Thin edge of the wedge, old boy; thin edge.Charles said:@MikeK FPT
re: Subway:
Brendan O'Neill believes that Subway is "default halal" because 185 stores are halal.
Subway currently has 1,798 stores in the UK & Ireland.
10% is not "default" anything
http://www.subway.co.uk/business/franchise/facts_and_history.aspx0 -
Whereabouts are you if you don't mind me asking?dr_spyn said:Had the postal vote yesterday, returned envelope yesterday evening. Still can't believe that my wife was in a coffee shop last Friday and didn't notice the arrival of Ed Miliband and his 12 minders. Have had nothing from Labour or UKIP for the Ward election. They did win it once, when Blair was leader, but perhaps they hope that The Greens will take it from the LDs, and that UKIP will skim off votes from the Tory. Had plenty of LD bumf, and the MP at the door.
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Do I have to google everything for you ?Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Flashman (deceased), what does changing at Baker St mean?
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My advice, Stay calm and classy, be like Gandhi.isam said:
Think you have to cut people slack when they are on the receiving end though. I always think the person that provoked the trouble deserves a lot more stick than the one who retaliatesTheScreamingEagles said:
I've been called, inter alia, a racist and an Uncle Tom for being a Tory from an ethnic minority.isam said:
I said I could understand why an Asian who is called racist by someone who is white & middle class might say something in temper.CarlottaVance said:
Aided and abetted by UKIP supporters who sought to defend the term......isam said:
Southam managed to turn the last thread into the reaction of the UKIP guyCarlottaVance said:
Did he introduce the term into the discussion? Argue for its acceptability?isam said:
Must congratulate Southam ObserverCarlottaVance said:FPT - the rather unpleasant discussion on "Leftard".
UKIP supporters would be well advised to steer the conversation away from the relative IQs of political party supporters:
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/2008/nov/03/greenpolitics-liberaldemocrats
......remind me, who is it is argued are "a bit thick"?
Who hasn't?
As I say, no one is talking about that on here, where as if UKIP supporters starting digging out ethnic minorities, I would say the focus would be on that, not the reaction of the abused
Partisan politics trumps all it seems
I didn't use insults like leftards towards my accusers.
I replied with responses like "I'd love to talk but I've got to go out and
A) Go stick burning crosses in a black family's yard Shove shit through the letterbox of Muslims families
C) Campaign for Phil Woolas"
C) Is my favourite.
Boycs in the ITV studio by the way for the IPL
Make the other guy look like the numpties
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If Huhne had taken the points and been banned from driving, how much would hiring a chauffeur have cost him? The man's a fool; how on earth did he ever become a Cabinet Minister?Life_ina_market_town said:We should be getting a costs judgment tomorrow afternoon from Sweeney J in R v Huhne & Pryce. The Crown seeks to recover its costs. Mr Huhne maintains that the only reason those costs were so high is because the Crown intended to call Ms Briscoe as a witness.
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Attacking Michael Gove is one the best tactics for UK political parties in the run up to the next general election, according to a BuzzFeed/YouGov poll of 1,900 people.
http://www.buzzfeed.com/jimwaterson/attacking-michael-gove-is-one-of-the-easiest-ways-to-win-in0 -
An assessment on the Vote2012 website indicates that 6/1 on LD retaining control is good value but the writer favours NOC .timmo said:Mike do you think that 6/1 represents good value on the LDs in Kingston?
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Mr Dancer, sometimes I get the impression you are rather an innocent fellow:Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Flashman (deceased), what does changing at Baker St mean?
http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=Change at Baker Street0 -
Dr. Spyn, suddenly we've got a fair bit of electoral correspondence. I think nothing from the blues or yellows, but UKIP (who were first), the BNP, Labour (twice) have all pushed stuff through the letterbox.
The Pirate Party video earlier was to my liking. If I weren't a near certain UKIP voter this time around I might've considered them. If they have a local candidate I might vote pirate.0 -
What someone says or tweets in the heat of the moment is one thing, what their defenders, on calm reflection, write the following day quite another. "yes, he shouldn't have tweeted it, but I quite understand why he was distressed by disgraceful taunts" is not the same as "if the cap fits"isam said:
Think you have to cut people slack when they are on the receiving end though.TheScreamingEagles said:
I've been called, inter alia, a racist and an Uncle Tom for being a Tory from an ethnic minority.isam said:
I said I could understand why an Asian who is called racist by someone who is white & middle class might say something in temper.CarlottaVance said:
Aided and abetted by UKIP supporters who sought to defend the term......isam said:
Southam managed to turn the last thread into the reaction of the UKIP guyCarlottaVance said:
Did he introduce the term into the discussion? Argue for its acceptability?isam said:
Must congratulate Southam ObserverCarlottaVance said:FPT - the rather unpleasant discussion on "Leftard".
UKIP supporters would be well advised to steer the conversation away from the relative IQs of political party supporters:
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/2008/nov/03/greenpolitics-liberaldemocrats
......remind me, who is it is argued are "a bit thick"?
Who hasn't?
As I say, no one is talking about that on here, where as if UKIP supporters starting digging out ethnic minorities, I would say the focus would be on that, not the reaction of the abused
Partisan politics trumps all it seems
I didn't use insults like leftards towards my accusers.
I replied with responses like "I'd love to talk but I've got to go out and
A) Go stick burning crosses in a black family's yard Shove shit through the letterbox of Muslims families
C) Campaign for Phil Woolas"
C) Is my favourite.
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O/T:
Anyone know whether the new Center Parcs at Woburn Forest has opened yet?0 -
I'm a married man who loves Eurovision.TGOHF said:
Is that a euphemism ? Like changing at Baker St ?TheScreamingEagles said:I have to change trains at Newark next week.
What do you think ?
*Innocent Face*
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Corby and Newark have very little in common with each other. Corby is an ex-steel town, Newark a traditional market town.OblitusSumMe said:If I apply the Corby 2012 by-election swings to the Newark 2010GE shares then the result looks like:
Con 38.3%
Lab 32.1%
UKIP 18.1%
LD 11.5%
On the face of it this looks quite close, and so it would be hard to disagree with Mike that Labour are good value at 4-1. In addition, it is quite likely that the Lib Dem vote will decline to a level where they flirt with losing their deposit, which would potentially put Labour and the Conservatives on level pegging if that vote share all went to Labour.
However, Labour were doing consistently better in the national opinion polls at the time of the Corby by-election than they are now, and UKIP are doing consistently better in the national opinion polls now than they were in 2012.
My best guess would be something like:
Con 35%
Lab 30%
UKIP 25%
Lib Dem 5%
Other 5%
However, with +/- 5% error bars on all of those figures then I think the Conservative price is too short, even if I would still make them favourite.0 -
0
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Mr. Flashman (deceased), we aren't all Londoners, you know.
Cheers to those who replied.0 -
That's UKIP's highest ever rating with the UKPR polling average.Sean_F said:Labour's lead is down another touch on UKPR.
The figures are now Lab 36%, Con 33%, UKP 15%, Lib Dem 9%, Green 3%.
Labour now forecast to be just 15 seats through the winning post:
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/ukpr-projection-2
Lab 341
Con 262
LD 210 -
Smoked Kippers???
''Britain should be treated as a special case in the European Union, and other member states "can and should" find ways to respond to its concerns over its position within the 28-nation bloc, European Commission president Jose Manuel Barroso has said.''
From Bloomberg0 -
You claim ethnic background TSE, may I ask from where?TheScreamingEagles said:I have to change trains at Newark next week.
I shall ask the locals whilst I wait and report back.
So as not to suppose I'm attacking ethnics, heres mine.
My family, as far back as 2 centuries ago, Are Ukrainian, Russian, and part Turkish. If I delve further, I have some Tartar blood too.0 -
I didn't know that either - but then again I had to google MILF in front of a giggling niece & nephew....."What does that mean? I really must look it up.........oh....."JosiasJessop said:
Mr Dancer, sometimes I get the impression you are rather an innocent fellow:Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Flashman (deceased), what does changing at Baker St mean?
http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=Change at Baker Street0 -
Steady on - the London defence league will be after you for such slurs.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Flashman (deceased), we aren't all Londoners, you know.
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My Grandparents emigrated here from the Punjab.MikeK said:
You claim ethnic background TSE, may I ask from where?TheScreamingEagles said:I have to change trains at Newark next week.
I shall ask the locals whilst I wait and report back.
So as not to suppose I'm attacking ethnics, heres mine.
My family, as far back as 2 centuries ago, Are Ukrainian, Russian, and part Turkish. If I delve further, I have some Tartar blood too.
Though I consider myself English and British and Yorkshire too0 -
What I said was more like the former?CarlottaVance said:
What someone says or tweets in the heat of the moment is one thing, what their defenders, on calm reflection, write the following day quite another. "yes, he shouldn't have tweeted it, but I quite understand why he was distressed by disgraceful taunts" is not the same as "if the cap fits"isam said:
Think you have to cut people slack when they are on the receiving end though.TheScreamingEagles said:
I've been called, inter alia, a racist and an Uncle Tom for being a Tory from an ethnic minority.isam said:
I said I could understand why an Asian who is called racist by someone who is white & middle class might say something in temper.CarlottaVance said:
Aided and abetted by UKIP supporters who sought to defend the term......isam said:
Southam managed to turn the last thread into the reaction of the UKIP guyCarlottaVance said:
Did he introduce the term into the discussion? Argue for its acceptability?isam said:
Must congratulate Southam ObserverCarlottaVance said:FPT - the rather unpleasant discussion on "Leftard".
UKIP supporters would be well advised to steer the conversation away from the relative IQs of political party supporters:
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/2008/nov/03/greenpolitics-liberaldemocrats
......remind me, who is it is argued are "a bit thick"?
Who hasn't?
As I say, no one is talking about that on here, where as if UKIP supporters starting digging out ethnic minorities, I would say the focus would be on that, not the reaction of the abused
Partisan politics trumps all it seems
I didn't use insults like leftards towards my accusers.
I replied with responses like "I'd love to talk but I've got to go out and
A) Go stick burning crosses in a black family's yard Shove shit through the letterbox of Muslims families
C) Campaign for Phil Woolas"
C) Is my favourite.
0 -
@bbclaurak: Hearing Ed Miliband turned down a meeting with Pfizer boss to discuss Astra bid, too busy with campaign apparently! much more on #newsnight0
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As usual Crick gets the wrong end of the stick.ToryJim said:Michael Crick just asked an intriguing question on twitter, when was the last time a by-election was won by someone aged 70 or more?
I found Henry Armstrong in Mid Armagh in 1921 at 76 but think there must be more recent exemplars.
Helmer is closer in age to the average voter in Newark than the Con and Lab candidates.0 -
Helmer is closer in age to the average voter in Newark than the Con and Lab candidates.
Could labour come third?0 -
You're in West Yorkshire somewhere from recollection? In which No, I am afraid that we don't have a Local candidate standing this time around. Naturally if you want to join the party and help us so that we can stand next time around... :-)Morris_Dancer said:Dr. Spyn, suddenly we've got a fair bit of electoral correspondence. I think nothing from the blues or yellows, but UKIP (who were first), the BNP, Labour (twice) have all pushed stuff through the letterbox.
The Pirate Party video earlier was to my liking. If I weren't a near certain UKIP voter this time around I might've considered them. If they have a local candidate I might vote pirate.0 -
So we need to think of a Yorkshire equivalent... How about 'Heading off Ilkley Moor to swim the Bradford Canal', as in moving from God's place to a stinking, fetid sewer in one of the county's worst towns?Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Flashman (deceased), we aren't all Londoners, you know.
Cheers to those who replied.
(ducks)0 -
I see David Dimbleby is a guest on the Nigel Farage show tonight on Beeb 1.
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Perhaps Labour could improve their PPBs with this guy.
http://www.itv.com/news/2014-05-08/mandela-service-interpreter-stars-in-bizarre-new-advert/0 -
You called?TGOHF said:
Steady on - the London defence league will be after you for such slurs.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Flashman (deceased), we aren't all Londoners, you know.
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There's plenty of potential with Wetwang and PenistoneLennon said:
You're in West Yorkshire somewhere from recollection? In which No, I am afraid that we don't have a Local candidate standing this time around. Naturally if you want to join the party and help us so that we can stand next time around... :-)Morris_Dancer said:Dr. Spyn, suddenly we've got a fair bit of electoral correspondence. I think nothing from the blues or yellows, but UKIP (who were first), the BNP, Labour (twice) have all pushed stuff through the letterbox.
The Pirate Party video earlier was to my liking. If I weren't a near certain UKIP voter this time around I might've considered them. If they have a local candidate I might vote pirate.0 -
Well do you ?BobaFett said:
You called?TGOHF said:
Steady on - the London defence league will be after you for such slurs.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Flashman (deceased), we aren't all Londoners, you know.
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The things you learn on PB. Not entirely sure how this knowledge will help me but still...0
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My prediction is Labour certainly in third place with an extremely close race between Con and UKIP for first place.taffys said:Helmer is closer in age to the average voter in Newark than the Con and Lab candidates.
Could labour come third?
I think the deciding factor will be the Euro elections. If UKIP win the Euros easily the momentum could push them over the line in Newark. But if they fail to win the Euros it'll be such a big letdown that they'll stall in the by-election.0 -
Gerry Rafferty's Baker Street will never sound the same again for you.DavidL said:The things you learn on PB. Not entirely sure how this knowledge will help me but still...
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Miss Vance, hehe, I did know that one.
Mr. Flashman (deceased), I'm perfectly safe. The London maps have "Here There Be Dragons" where Yorkshire is.
Mr. Lennon, indeed, and also no.
Mr. Jessop, anyone leaving Ilkley Moor for Bradford is stark raving mad.0 -
Ed doesn't converse with mere CEOs who are not up to his level intellectual self confidence.Scott_P said:@bbclaurak: Hearing Ed Miliband turned down a meeting with Pfizer boss to discuss Astra bid, too busy with campaign apparently! much more on #newsnight
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Mr. Fett, so what? I've been to Cardiff. And Shanghai.0
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Thanks, and now I'm off to watch pointless.TheScreamingEagles said:
My Grandparents emigrated here from the Punjab.MikeK said:
You claim ethnic background TSE, may I ask from where?TheScreamingEagles said:I have to change trains at Newark next week.
I shall ask the locals whilst I wait and report back.
So as not to suppose I'm attacking ethnics, heres mine.
My family, as far back as 2 centuries ago, Are Ukrainian, Russian, and part Turkish. If I delve further, I have some Tartar blood too.
Though I consider myself English and British and Yorkshire too
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Seems like the Ukip strategy is working much better than the Con strategy.taffys said:Smoked Kippers???
''Britain should be treated as a special case in the European Union, and other member states "can and should" find ways to respond to its concerns over its position within the 28-nation bloc, European Commission president Jose Manuel Barroso has said.''
From Bloomberg
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If that's true, Ed Miliband is going to regret that decision.Scott_P said:@bbclaurak: Hearing Ed Miliband turned down a meeting with Pfizer boss to discuss Astra bid, too busy with campaign apparently! much more on #newsnight
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Farage calls for British earthquake
http://the-tap.blogspot.co.uk/2014/05/fracker-farage-calls-for-british.html0
