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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Tories still odds on to break the 25 year long series o

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    isamisam Posts: 40,931
    Oh sod it! I give in, I'll vote Tory. Cameron is the kind of guy that, when he says he will do something, he gets it done

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/6961675/David-Cameron-net-immigration-will-be-capped-at-tens-of-thousands.html
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,987
    Too tired to do more scans and the system restore that's apparently needed, so I'm off for the night [well, to watch DVDs]. If I disappear, it's probably 'just' computer issues.

    P1 and P2 are at 9am and 1pm respectively.
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,963

    AndyJS said:

    I can't understand why UKIP are 5/1 in Newark.

    UKIP are 5/1 in Newark because very, very few people are willing to put their money where their mouths are.
    Or perhaps because in spite of wanting a UKIP win they are realistic enough to realise that in this constituency it is extremely unlikely. A week or so again I put the chance at no better than 10%. If anything the choice of Roger Helmer has perhaps made me even more sceptical of their chances.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "Labour’s working class support has “died” as the party becomes “very middle class”, an advisor to Ed Miliband has said.

    Lord Glasman, the policy guru ennobled by Mr Miliband, said Labour voters who defected to Ukip may never return because the party is failing to address concerns on welfare and immigration."

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/10792422/Labours-working-class-support-died.html
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    NinoinozNinoinoz Posts: 1,312
    edited May 2014
    ZenPagan said:

    To all those saying people who vote ukip are responsible for labour winning


    bollocks the only people responsible for labour winning is the conservative party and its apologists. Here's a thought perhaps the conservatives could actually try and decide on some policies that make them worth voting for and convincing people they would actually follow through and implement them.

    The voters cannot be wrong if Cameron loses it is because he and the conservatives are not worth voting for.

    I think it takes some chutzpah to campaign against AV and then, after getting the FPTP they were after, complain that it would directly lead to an undesirable result for them.
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,756
    @HurstLlama

    I had the same issue myself on the system and just went for a walk. I was as you know slightly tongue in cheek with CCC but your good lady has a point on what's the difference between a debate and chat with pub cronies. Setting aside that chats down the pub frequently produce good results I'd simply say that the difference between a grumpy old man and and a citizen is that you should be able to suggest something better but sensible at the same time.

    As an example let's take the EU referendum. Let's have one. But instead of the usual slippery politics let's just ask people the sensible question " Do you want to move towards ever closer Union with the EU ?" Yes/No.

    If we say yes the economics arguments etc. mean very little and really we should just get on with it. If we say No then the politiocs need to come out and say where to next which could be anything from a complete out to some kind of other relationship. In any event it stops us for ever fretting on the sidelines and lets those EU states that want to merge get on with it.

    In all events Mr L I suspect we'd end up with a half decent manifesto for the UK by 2015.
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    ZenPaganZenPagan Posts: 689
    Ninoinoz said:

    ZenPagan said:

    To all those saying people who vote ukip are responsible for labour winning


    bollocks the only people responsible for labour winning is the conservative party and its apologists. Here's a thought perhaps the conservatives could actually try and decide on some policies that make them worth voting for and convincing people they would actually follow through and implement them.

    The voters cannot be wrong if Cameron loses it is because he and the conservatives are not worth voting for.

    I think it takes some chutzpah to campaign against AV and then, after getting the FPTP they were after, complain that it would directly lead to an undesirable result for them.
    Opposing AV was one of the few things I have found to applaud Cameron on.

    PR while nominally fairer in some ways in effect allows politicians to stitch us all up with backroom deals and as this Coalition shows clearly you can have no idea what you are actually casting a vote for in the event of a coalition being likely.

    As evidence I point out to the familiar Nabavi retort when it is mentioned that Cameron has not done something about a manifesto promise "Which part of its a coalition do you fail to understand",

    Well frankly if I don't know which part of a manifesto are up for dropping how can I make a decision on who to vote for? Simple answer is I cannot. If I had known the manifesto parts that would have been dropped due to the coalition I would not have held my nose and voted Tory last time.

    Fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me.

    Until the Tories stop being a party of the centre left they can kiss my vote and I suspect many others goodbye

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    Too tired to do more scans and the system restore that's apparently needed, so I'm off for the night [well, to watch DVDs]. If I disappear, it's probably 'just' computer issues.

    P1 and P2 are at 9am and 1pm respectively.

    Morris - System restore shouldn't take more than approx 5 minutes.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    ZenPagan said:

    Scott_P said:

    Next said:


    UKIPs may not like Cameron, but he really is their best shot at a referendum to leave the EU.

    Read the thread. Kippers do not want a referendum.
    Or in other words vote Tory or milibrand gets in


    what a totally pathetic reason to give for voting Tory is that really the best reason you can come up with. Just goes to show the sorry state of the conservative party but then what can you expect from a tory party led by a new labour disciple like Cameron.

    Surely voting to avoid a repeat of the last Labour govt is the sanest and best reason ever to vote A particular way ? It was the worst govt ever.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,481
    New Thread
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    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    "... in other words vote Tory or milibrand gets in ..."

    That seems to be an accurate summary. Of course it misses out on a few details, but you seem to have encapsulated the essential Conservative offering for 2015. What else are they going to say that would be truthful and sound better? "In terms of the deficit and consequent debt we have performed even worse than Labour promised to do and which we sad wasn't good enough?" Not really a vote winner. How about, "We have failed to carry out the supply side reform necessary to really rebalance the economy but, hey, there is a housing boom in progress, God knows how that happened?" Then they could try, "Hey all those promises about localism, and devolving decisions down to community level, remember those? Yeah, well, these guys with bank bank accounts called developers came along and what with one thing and another, you know how it is". I could go on, but do I need to - that the Conservative party is still in the park in terms of polling is a wonder and can only be justified by the fear of Labour certainly not on their performance.
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    NinoinozNinoinoz Posts: 1,312
    edited May 2014
    Socrates said:

    The moment UKIP are in power we would have a referendum.

    No, you wouldn't.

    The moment UKIP form a government, they will simply leave the EU by parliamentary act, just the way we entered.

    And you don't even need 50% of the public to agree with you.
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,756

    "... in other words vote Tory or milibrand gets in ..."

    That seems to be an accurate summary. Of course it misses out on a few details, but you seem to have encapsulated the essential Conservative offering for 2015. What else are they going to say that would be truthful and sound better? "In terms of the deficit and consequent debt we have performed even worse than Labour promised to do and which we sad wasn't good enough?" Not really a vote winner. How about, "We have failed to carry out the supply side reform necessary to really rebalance the economy but, hey, there is a housing boom in progress, God knows how that happened?" Then they could try, "Hey all those promises about localism, and devolving decisions down to community level, remember those? Yeah, well, these guys with bank bank accounts called developers came along and what with one thing and another, you know how it is". I could go on, but do I need to - that the Conservative party is still in the park in terms of polling is a wonder and can only be justified by the fear of Labour certainly not on their performance.

    LOL it was that offer from your fellow Sussexian that finally broke me out of the vote blue mould. It's one thing to criticise labour voters for voting like sheep but when you're doing it yourself it's time to ask yourself some serious questions. These days I'm firmly in the if you want my vote earn it camp.
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