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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Tories still odds on to break the 25 year long series of failed by election defences while in government
The Tories still very strong favourite to hold Newark. Ukip now out to 5/1 pic.twitter.com/8cY37u9Vvs
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Meanwhile "Stop the War" - want to er.. start a war !
http://www.stopwar.org.uk/article/time-to-go-to-war-with-israel-as-the-only-path-to-peace-in-the-middle-east#.U2uYJfldU1I
I'm happy to be on the Tories here at 8-11.
"Ukip's Newark byelection candidate Roger Helmer was greeted like a celebrity as he launched his campaign to be the party's first MP – in a sign his controversial comments about rape and homosexuality appear to have had little effect on the electorate."
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/may/07/roger-helmer-cheered-launching-newark-byelection-campaign
Newark constituency census data, 2011:
Total population: 98,937
Total aged 18+: 78,885
Total aged 50+: 40,169
Percentage of voting age population aged 50+: 50.9%
(a) This doesn't take into account the fact that older people are more likely to vote.
(b) The population will have aged slightly since 2011.
http://www.neighbourhood.statistics.gov.uk/dissemination/LeadTableView.do?a=7&b=6508025&c=newark&d=27&e=61&g=6456174&i=1001x1003x1032x1004&m=0&r=1&s=1399549367236&enc=1&dsFamilyId=2545
Can't really comment on Newark - something will happen, it usually does.
On an unrelated, we've had a glossy and extremely anodyne leaflet from the local Conservatives - last time Labour polled 70% in my Ward and it's hard to see the Tories (who have support from some shop owners but not necessarily the workers or the customers) overturning that kind of majority.
The leaflet tells me almost nothing about what a Conservative-controlled Newham would look like - it makes the traditional jibes about Labour (some of which are justified) and witters on about sports clubs as "the answer" but none of the big issues are tackled such as housing, waste and parking beyond a commitment to "lifting the cost of parking for residents and small business". Now, as the permits are free for residents, that's going to be a tough one.
The cynic in me suggests it's a manifesto written by business people for business people and I suspect in fifteen days time, Labour will still be in charge at East Ham Town Hall though whether it's with 60 seats out of 60 or perhaps 57 remains to be seen.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richmond_(Yorks)_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#Elections_in_the_1980s
I may well be proved wrong (hence wanting better odds) but I think Helmer will prove less of a temptation and the chances of him saying something foolish are high. Helmer is only likely to win if the Labour vote collapses to him tactically and I don't think that is very likely either.
Two people relatively local to the area who post here, @Macisback reckon 33-1 would be fair on Labour here and Richard Tyndall put UKIP @ 10-1... still always slightly nervous about going against OGH...
If I had the float for it I'd lay the Lib Dems at any price on Betfair the day before.
I try to prepare my posts one day ahead and on Tuesday evening when I got in late (slightly drunk) I started work on this morning's opus. I draw on previous posts to try to ensure some continuity and consistency, so I used the completed draft of yesterday's post to borrow some things from. I woke up yesterday morning hungover to find that I had two early drafts of this morning's post and no draft of yesterday's post, with only an hour to put the post that I'd intended to put online before I had to go into work. Control C, Control V is a dangerous function under the influence.
It's fortunate that I could remember more or less what I wanted to say.
The lib Dems are 6/1 to retain control withe Cons 2/5 and NOC 3/1. This will give us a good idea of how the LD/Tory marginals are going to fall.
MikeK: FPT
I don't go to Subway often, because I don't like their sandwiches. Last time I did I had a BLT. Horrible.
As an aside, this is is their basic menu.
http://www.subway.co.uk/menu/subs/lite-subs/ham.aspx
http://www.subway.co.uk/menu/subs/lite-subs/subway-club.aspx
http://www.subway.co.uk/menu/subs/lite-subs/turkey-breast-and-ham.aspx
http://www.subway.co.uk/menu/subs/breakfast/bacon.aspx
http://www.subway.co.uk/menu/subs/breakfast/bacon-egg.aspx
http://www.subway.co.uk/menu/subs/breakfast/mega-breakfast.aspx
http://www.subway.co.uk/menu/subs/breakfast/sausage-egg.aspx
http://www.subway.co.uk/menu/subs/breakfast/sausage.aspx
Last time I checked "ham", "sausages" and "bacon" came from pigs.
Alternatively, you could look at what they actually say on their website:
http://www.subway.co.uk/menu/halal.aspx
CERTIFIED HALAL MEATS
Due to the growing popularity of the SUBWAY® chain, with the diverse multicultural population across the UK and Ireland, we put a programme in place in 2007 to ensure that the population demographic is taken into account when new store openings are considered in order that we meet consumer demand in each location. [...] we require suppliers of Halal products to adopt the stunning of animals prior to their slaughter. [...] All Halal SUBWAY® stores have numerous signs stating that they serve Halal food. These are situated on the menu panels, nutritional information and in the front window of the store. [...]
Do all SUBWAY® stores serve Halal meats?
No. Only a limited number of SUBWAY® stores serve Certified Halal meats. For a list of participating stores please contact: halal@subway.co.uk or go to the store finder at www.subway.com
Shoddy journalism by the Telegraph. But Mike, you're old enough to realsie that not everything you read is true.
I found Henry Armstrong in Mid Armagh in 1921 at 76 but think there must be more recent exemplars.
The figures are now Lab 36%, Con 33%, UKP 15%, Lib Dem 9%, Green 3%.
re: Subway:
Brendan O'Neill believes that Subway is "default halal" because 185 stores are halal.
Subway currently has 1,798 stores in the UK & Ireland.
10% is not "default" anything
http://www.subway.co.uk/business/franchise/facts_and_history.aspx
Mind you, that was in Asia Minor and Thrace, I think, rather than Newark.
There is some overlap between his views and those of Roger Helmer, though I fear that they might have differed on the subject of halal meat.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aGBfYoldZQ4
UKIP supporters would be well advised to steer the conversation away from the relative IQs of political party supporters:
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/2008/nov/03/greenpolitics-liberaldemocrats
Fantastic distraction technique
One of the abused called the protestors "leftards" in a tweet afterwards
Southam managed to turn the last thread into the reaction of the UKIP guy while no one mentioned the absurdity of the original insult
a) they knew but covered it up for years
or
b) they are so insulated from the consequences of their actions they hadn't got the faintest idea it was happening
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/jameskirkup/100270671/cameron-wouldnt-quit-if-scotland-votes-yes-but-he-would-forever-be-the-man-who-lost-the-union
......remind me, who is it is argued are "a bit thick"?
Eating meat killed in a ritualistic manner (Kutha meat): Sikhs are strictly prohibited from eating meat killed in a ritualistic manner (such as halal or kosher, known as Kutha meat[6] ), or any meat where langar is served.[7] In some small Sikh Sects, i.e. Akhand Kirtani Jatha eating any meat is believed to be forbidden, but this is not a universally held belief.[8] The meat eaten by Sikhs is known as Jhatka meat.
Who hasn't?
As I say, no one is talking about that on here, where as if UKIP supporters starting digging out ethnic minorities, I would say the focus would be on that, not the reaction of the abused
Partisan politics trumps all it seems
Let's face it Isam, last night could hardly have been a bigger victory for Farage as it is, I don;t know what you are moaning about. When are you going to work out that UKIP WANTS these attacks.
It will be headline news in the final days before the by-election...
One more point against them is that voting can occur before polling day, so if a revelation emerges voters can't change their mind.
I didn't use insults like leftards towards my accusers.
I replied with responses like "I'd love to talk but I've got to go out and
A) Go stick burning crosses in a black family's yard
C) Campaign for Phil Woolas"
C) Is my favourite.
Con 38.3%
Lab 32.1%
UKIP 18.1%
LD 11.5%
On the face of it this looks quite close, and so it would be hard to disagree with Mike that Labour are good value at 4-1. In addition, it is quite likely that the Lib Dem vote will decline to a level where they flirt with losing their deposit, which would potentially put Labour and the Conservatives on level pegging if that vote share all went to Labour.
However, Labour were doing consistently better in the national opinion polls at the time of the Corby by-election than they are now, and UKIP are doing consistently better in the national opinion polls now than they were in 2012.
My best guess would be something like:
Con 35%
Lab 30%
UKIP 25%
Lib Dem 5%
Other 5%
However, with +/- 5% error bars on all of those figures then I think the Conservative price is too short, even if I would still make them favourite.
I shall ask the locals whilst I wait and report back.
Boycs in the ITV studio by the way for the IPL
Make the other guy look like the numpties
http://www.buzzfeed.com/jimwaterson/attacking-michael-gove-is-one-of-the-easiest-ways-to-win-in
http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=Change at Baker Street
The Pirate Party video earlier was to my liking. If I weren't a near certain UKIP voter this time around I might've considered them. If they have a local candidate I might vote pirate.
Anyone know whether the new Center Parcs at Woburn Forest has opened yet?
What do you think ?
*Innocent Face*
Possibly NSFW
http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=Change at Baker Street
Cheers to those who replied.
Labour now forecast to be just 15 seats through the winning post:
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/ukpr-projection-2
Lab 341
Con 262
LD 21
''Britain should be treated as a special case in the European Union, and other member states "can and should" find ways to respond to its concerns over its position within the 28-nation bloc, European Commission president Jose Manuel Barroso has said.''
From Bloomberg
So as not to suppose I'm attacking ethnics, heres mine.
My family, as far back as 2 centuries ago, Are Ukrainian, Russian, and part Turkish. If I delve further, I have some Tartar blood too.
Though I consider myself English and British and Yorkshire too
Helmer is closer in age to the average voter in Newark than the Con and Lab candidates.
You can make a similar change at Paddington - but it's harder because the two entrances are further apart........
Could labour come third?
(ducks)
http://www.itv.com/news/2014-05-08/mandela-service-interpreter-stars-in-bizarre-new-advert/
I think the deciding factor will be the Euro elections. If UKIP win the Euros easily the momentum could push them over the line in Newark. But if they fail to win the Euros it'll be such a big letdown that they'll stall in the by-election.
Mr. Flashman (deceased), I'm perfectly safe. The London maps have "Here There Be Dragons" where Yorkshire is.
Mr. Lennon, indeed, and also no.
Mr. Jessop, anyone leaving Ilkley Moor for Bradford is stark raving mad.
http://the-tap.blogspot.co.uk/2014/05/fracker-farage-calls-for-british.html