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  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,884
    The Brexit experts were substantially* correct. The rejection of their expertise from some quarters included after the fact misrepresentation of what they had previously said. If you dismiss empirical research from the start as "Project Fear" you don't objectively evaluate whether the outturn was correct. You are more likely to work backwards from the assumption that it was incorrect.

    * Most experts in most detail.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,272

    Britain has more equal wealth (as opposed to income) than Germany.
    I think that because so many Germans rent, they are on average capital poor. Indeed doesn't the median Greek have more capital than the median German, but lower income? A lot of it fairly illiquid though.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,414

    Britain has more equal wealth (as opposed to income) than Germany.
    The CIA begs to differ (although the differences are marginal): 68 vs 70.

    Although I suspect the existence of large numbers of Russian plutocrats who call London home skews the numbers somewhat.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,842
    edited March 2020
    RobD said:

    Perhaps he should stick to his own areas of research?
    Can Imperial College just fuck off please? They've had an utterly disastrous run at this. Right up there with the WHO (not the Roger Daltry outfit), Richard Branson, and Sports Direct. Can't think why anyone gives them the time of day. What does Cheltenham Ladies College or The British Meat Processors' Association, or the surviving cast of Hi De Hi have to say about Coronavirus? Let's hear from someone else who hasn't yet made an abject laughing stock of themselves over this.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    Pagan2 said:

    And I have advocated any of those when? Clue I don't vote Tory and haven't done since they moved left.

    I would prefer to see vocational courses and ou course subsidised for the poor and unemployed. University fees are different however as that is largely down to the asinine insistence that 50% should goto university. Put it back to 10 to 15% selected purely on merit and have it free.
    What we need to reduce is the number of people spending the years between 18 and 21 on a full-time residential degree course in a 'foreign' town or city.

    More use of distance-learning, part-time and intensive courses at varying prices would be a big improvement. It's one of those models that's ripe for being turned upside-down by the internet, but is protected by vested interests.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,076
    Pagan2 said:

    There are 16 million odd households in germany with a net income of less than 2000 euros. These are the people labour would be calling "living in poverty" in the uk.

    source https://www.statista.com/statistics/750827/private-household-income-distribution-in-germany/

    not a huge difference in wealth D- must try harder
    2000 Euros goes a lot further in Germany than in the UK.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,302
    Pagan2 said:

    There are 16 million odd households in germany with a net income of less than 2000 euros. These are the people labour would be calling "living in poverty" in the uk.

    source https://www.statista.com/statistics/750827/private-household-income-distribution-in-germany/

    not a huge difference in wealth D- must try harder
    "Disposable net income"
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,272
    rcs1000 said:

    The CIA begs to differ (although the differences are marginal): 68 vs 70.

    Although I suspect the existence of large numbers of Russian plutocrats who call London home skews the numbers somewhat.
    Median or Mean? If asymmetrical in distribution the former might be a better measure.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,938
    edited March 2020

    It was how they felt after WW2. They didn't want to go back to the hardship of the interwar years with the Jarrow marchers etc. I think it was Tony Benn who said something along the lines of 'We'd had a command economy to win the war, why not do the same to win the peace?'.

    Sadly, that approach led to massive ongoing stagnation and economic decline, the disastrous waste of time of joining the then EEC, and the jolting reforms of Thatcherism.
    Before that, though, it had led to a period of affluence and economic development, and huge improvements in social and health indicators and social cohesion. The period, with all its imperfections, was ended by an oil shock after 25 years of stability, and in many places, especially during the 1950s and 60's, huge economic growth and social progress at a time of concurrent very high taxation.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,280

    Can Imperial College just fuck off please? They've had an utterly disastrous run at this. Right up there with the WHO (not the Roger Daltry outfit), Richard Branson, and Sports Direct. Can't think why anyone gives them the time of day. What does Cheltenham Ladies College or The British Meat Processors' Association, or the surviving cast of Hi De Hi have to say about Coronavirus? Let's hear from someone else who hasn't yet made an abject laughing stock of themselves over this.
    That Piers Morgan seems to know his stuff. And his initials suggest he would make a great leader. Far better than trusting experts imo.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,842

    Before that, though, it had led to a period of affluence and economic development, and huge improvements in social and health indicators and social cohesion. The period, with all its imperfections, was ended by an oil shock after 25 years of stability.
    But there is no evidence that the economy would not have recovered, and possibly recovered more sustainably and robustly, had the post-war consensus not prevailed.
  • IshmaelZ said:

    Pike is Imperial's answer to Cambridge's Burgon. Most of the blame attaches to the journalists (Vine, Hitchens, Times) who reported his "research."
    What bollocks, as if Peter Hitchens is a journalist.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,808
    Sandpit said:

    What we need to reduce is the number of people spending the years between 18 and 21 on a full-time residential degree course in a 'foreign' town or city.

    More use of distance-learning, part-time and intensive courses at varying prices would be a big improvement. It's one of those models that's ripe for being turned upside-down by the internet, but is protected by vested interests.
    I think we need that but also a lot less of the snobbish "You must goto university pressure". When my offspring was coming up to that age I did sit down with him and tell him he should think very carefully if he wanted to go and outlined other options like learning a trade. The rest of his family applied pressure to go. He went got a good degree and msc but has regretted it ever since as what it mainly taught him was he didn't want to work in a lab and he now does completely different stuff
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    That Piers Morgan seems to know his stuff. And his initials suggest he would make a great leader. Far better than trusting experts imo.
    Pike is not an expert, but is being permitted to represent himself as one.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,695

    What a strange analogy - everybody with any sense loves Marmite!
    I certainly do. Fortunately I bought a jar on my penultimate shopping trip before the shielding began.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,808
    eristdoof said:

    2000 Euros goes a lot further in Germany than in the UK.
    It may do but I have friends in germany who live in households with that sort of income and they complain about the same issues money wise as my uk friends
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,842

    That Piers Morgan seems to know his stuff. And his initials suggest he would make a great leader. Far better than trusting experts imo.
    Piers Morgan wouldn't know how to write an academic paper. That makes him a lot less dangerous in terms of public policy than Professor Billy Big Bollocks from Imperial who has crunched some numbers, has a Twitter account and fancies getting his 15 minutes.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,808

    "Disposable net income"
    which means after tax? your point is? Median household income here is 29600 which after tax is 2200 or so
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,938
    edited March 2020

    But there is no evidence that the economy would not have recovered, and possibly recovered more sustainably and robustly, had the post-war consensus not prevailed.
    Very much so. However, there were complicating issues in the 1970s. The New Right linked moral issues and changes in social values with economic decline, hence the rise of Thatcherism and Reaganism. Many people were very frightened and disorientated by the speed of social changes that had taken place, making them easy to convince of an economic link, and the younger and more optimistic 1960s generation became disillusioned that the broadly consensual system that had existed was no longer producing economic opportunities for them in the same way, also making them more receptive to Thatcher's and Reagan's ideas.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,280
    IshmaelZ said:

    Pike is not an expert, but is being permitted to represent himself as one.
    Agree he is not an expert, not sure if he is presenting himself as one, but it is the media who are misrepresenting him - suggesting he is equivalent to Ferguson or even speaking on Fergusons behalf simply because they are both at Imperial.

    (Even if he is encouraging this, the science editors in the msm should have been ensuring he doesnt get much coverage).
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,695
    Time for another tedious update from me. Writing this crap is helping me, so please indulge me...

    So, my Amazon order for CCS Foot Cream arrived today. Some PBers will recall that I recommended it for dry hands.

    After that, I went to close the gate and spotted nine people and one dog in the lane. One pair appeared to be together but were staying 2m apart.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Agree he is not an expert, not sure if he is presenting himself as one, but it is the media who are misrepresenting him - suggesting he is equivalent to Ferguson or even speaking on Fergusons behalf simply because they are both at Imperial.

    (Even if he is encouraging this, the science editors in the msm should have been ensuring he doesnt get much coverage).
    Putting a preprint of something on a preprint server looks to me like a claim to be an expert in the relevant field. It is the science editor of the Times who is giving him uncritical airtime.
  • SockySocky Posts: 404
    Sandpit said:


    More use of distance-learning, part-time and intensive courses at varying prices would be a big improvement. It's one of those models that's ripe for being turned upside-down by the internet, but is protected by vested interests.

    Why do most university courses, over widely different subjects, last exactly three years?

    There must be many people who would prefer a shorter more focused course (and then take more than one if needed).
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,233
    Pagan2 said:

    It may do but I have friends in germany who live in households with that sort of income and they complain about the same issues money wise as my uk friends
    It depends where in Germany. I have colleagues working in our German office who are commuting ludicrous distances to work - and not in Berlin. The housing costs may be less, but so are the salaries.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,567
    eristdoof said:

    2000 Euros goes a lot further in Germany than in the UK.
    On a point of pedantry, as you can’t spend Euros in the UK it isn’t surprising they’re not worth much.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,233

    Father Ted - truly the gift that keeps on giving. Father Jack For Pope!
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,538

    Time for another tedious update from me. Writing this crap is helping me, so please indulge me...

    So, my Amazon order for CCS Foot Cream arrived today. Some PBers will recall that I recommended it for dry hands.

    After that, I went to close the gate and spotted nine people and one dog in the lane. One pair appeared to be together but were staying 2m apart.

    I’ve come across a few couples keeping their distance like that, completely stupid and it’s a pain when they don’t feel inclined to get into single file to let you pass.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,695
    tlg86 said:

    I’ve come across a few couples keeping their distance like that, completely stupid and it’s a pain when they don’t feel inclined to get into single file to let you pass.
    They were in single file - one was 2m behind the other!
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,233

    Before that, though, it had led to a period of affluence and economic development, and huge improvements in social and health indicators and social cohesion. The period, with all its imperfections, was ended by an oil shock after 25 years of stability, and in many places, especially during the 1950s and 60's, huge economic growth and social progress at a time of concurrent very high taxation.
    Part of the problem is that a command economy regards improvements as an affront to The Way Things Should Be Done.

    Hence BT regarding the usage of non-BT phones as a crime....

    One favourite is the story of how, under national ownership, a plan was presented to replace a steel mill with a more modern one, better placed for a larger port - this was interpreted thus : "So you want to demolish the steal mill in one of this governments constituencies, build another in a constituency held by another party, employ less workers and all for what? Better and cheaper steel? Why can't we do what we always do - a subsidy until the next election?"

    Another is some civil service correspondence under Thatcher, in the early days, lambasting her for her encouraging the micro-computer revolution. This was because the national strategy was for the UK to build mini-computers (anyone remember them?)
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,567


    Father Ted - truly the gift that keeps on giving. Father Jack For Pope!
    Feck!

    Drink!
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,272

    Part of the problem is that a command economy regards improvements as an affront to The Way Things Should Be Done.

    Hence BT regarding the usage of non-BT phones as a crime....

    One favourite is the story of how, under national ownership, a plan was presented to replace a steel mill with a more modern one, better placed for a larger port - this was interpreted thus : "So you want to demolish the steal mill in one of this governments constituencies, build another in a constituency held by another party, employ less workers and all for what? Better and cheaper steel? Why can't we do what we always do - a subsidy until the next election?"

    Another is some civil service correspondence under Thatcher, in the early days, lambasting her for her encouraging the micro-computer revolution. This was because the national strategy was for the UK to build mini-computers (anyone remember them?)
    Though that is very different at the moment. The NHS is adapting very quickly since the internal market has been suspended.

    https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1244298415342850050?s=09
  • SockySocky Posts: 404



    Part of the problem is that a command economy regards improvements as an affront to The Way Things Should Be Done.

    I wonder if computer simulation will ever be up to the the task of telling us what would have happened had Churchill won the 1945 election?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,559
    edited March 2020
    tlg86 said:

    I’ve come across a few couples keeping their distance like that, completely stupid and it’s a pain when they don’t feel inclined to get into single file to let you pass.
    Long local walk with the dog today - the only person I saw was a neon lycra-clad cyclist who shot past about 2 feet from me.

    Some things never change.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,938
    edited March 2020
    Foxy said:

    Though that is very different at the moment. The NHS is adapting very quickly since the internal market has been suspended.

    https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1244298415342850050?s=09
    This reminds me of my father's comments the month the NHS managers' Rolls-Royces - yes, really - arrived in his Surrey hospital car park in the 1980s. I remember him talking about how suddenly every clinical decision became more complicated, and how they were instantly unpopular.

    The NHS could often be unwieldy and inefficient, ofcourse, but as with the BBC, major over-reach was made affecting quality.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    RobD said:

    Perhaps he should stick to his own areas of research?
    Indeed, but perhaps the media also shouldn't have spent the column inches in the first place. Filtering out the dross from the relevant information is meant to be an important part of their job.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,076

    It depends where in Germany. I have colleagues working in our German office who are commuting ludicrous distances to work - and not in Berlin. The housing costs may be less, but so are the salaries.
    I don't see the relevance of Berlin, here. The average salaries for professionals are higher in Munich, Frankfurt and Hamburg.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    This reminds me of my father's comments the month the NHS managers' Rolls-Royces - yes, really - arrived in his Surrey hospital car park in the 1980s. I remember him talking about how suddenly every clinical decision became more complicated, and how they were instantly unpopular.

    The NHS could often be unwieldy and inefficient, ofcourse, but as with the BBC, major over-reach was made affecting quality.
    Roy Lilly
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,938
    edited March 2020
    nichomar said:

    Roy Lilly
    Didn't want to name names, and actually he seems to have become more moderate and thoughtful since those years long ago, but yes. It must have been the "High 80s".
  • eadric said:

    Reckon it’s possible to make predictions now.

    The major Western European nations will record between 20-40,000 deaths in this ‘first wave’ of corona. Germany might do slightly better.

    That’s brutal, and grim, but not the apocalypse

    The big questions will then be, how do we deal with a 2nd wave in the winter?

    And: what can we learn from Sweden. They seem determined to pursue herd immunity, to preserve the economy.

    If they suffer no more than elsewhere, that’s an epochal argument

    So not the 2 million deaths you were hyperventilating over last week?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295
    edited March 2020
    HYUFD said:
    The governmental elite have some sort of weird love affair with China that the rest of us simply don't understand.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,670
    edited March 2020

    This reminds me of my father's comments the month the NHS managers' Rolls-Royces - yes, really - arrived in his Surrey hospital car park in the 1980s. He said that suddenly every clinical decision became more complicated.
    Incisive command and control from then top, and simple systems, have their problems.

    When my mum came out of hospital last autumn, the hospital explicitly told us that the only way to get hold of the discharge policy - which is the document that tells you what support you are entitled to - was via a FOI request, which can legally take 28 days but often takes months.

    The effect is that coming out of hospital support, which can only be requested before you come out, is routinely denied.

    The refusal came from the ward, and from the 'Patient Engagement Team'.

    In fact the discharge was rushed and she was back in in a very few days.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,538
    Andy_JS said:

    The governmental elite have some sort of weird love affair with China that the rest of us simply don't understand.
    There’s nothing liberal about them. They are instinctively authoritarian; they look at the PRC as a model of government to be aspired to.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,272

    This reminds me of my father's comments the month the NHS managers' Rolls-Royces - yes, really - arrived in his Surrey hospital car park in the 1980s. I remember him talking about how suddenly every clinical decision became more complicated, and how they were instantly unpopular.

    The NHS could often be unwieldy and inefficient, ofcourse, but as with the BBC, major over-reach was made affecting quality.
    Rings true to me, though no Rollers. Nearly all innovation comes from frontline staff and is stifled by management. It is great to be free of it at the moment, and all pulling in the same direction.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,774
    Andy_JS said:

    The governmental elite have some sort of weird love affair with China that the rest of us simply don't understand.
    No, it’s realpolitik.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,535
    edited March 2020
    I know Trump likes to go on about the Fake News media...but f##k me, CH4 news literally just said how will it be possible to live in a lockdown like this for 6 months.

    Well, that isn't what deputy lady egg-head said at all. She was talking about it probably take 3-6 months before we can get back to total normal life. That isn't "lockdown".

    And secondly, the media are reporting this as if they have only just discovered this incredible top secret information. That is why you enormous bell-ends the government from the very start said we have to get the timing right on this as this isn't a couple of week thing we are going to be undertaking.
  • Foxy said:

    Rings true to me, though no Rollers. Nearly all innovation comes from frontline staff and is stifled by management. It is great to be free of it at the moment, and all pulling in the same direction.
    And long may it continue
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,233
    Nigelb said:

    No, it’s realpolitik.
    It's a hardwired belief that only China can make things cheaply. This is not actually true anymore.
  • ABZABZ Posts: 441
    eadric said:

    Nearly 5000 French citizens in ICUs

    That’s an enormous burden

    Yes, absolutely. I wonder if there is a weekend effect, at least in the number of new cases (i.e., fewer tests)? Seems much lower than yesterday, which is surprising (also the same in Germany). Having said that, the number of new fatalities did not increase either, which should be independent of when the data were collated.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,670
    eristdoof said:

    I don't see the relevance of Berlin, here. The average salaries for professionals are higher in Munich, Frankfurt and Hamburg.
    One distortion of Gini Coefficients is whether they have been calculated before or after the equalising impact of the benefit system.

    Campaigners tend to pick and choose.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,233
    edited March 2020
    Foxy said:

    Rings true to me, though no Rollers. Nearly all innovation comes from frontline staff and is stifled by management. It is great to be free of it at the moment, and all pulling in the same direction.
    My favourite one-liner on the NHS - "The National Healthcare Prevention Service - frustrated every day by insubordinate doctors and nurses"..

    Shades of war - Canberra being converted into a troopship in a quarter of the estimated time.. The dock workers and the low level management told senior management and the union leaders to piss of to a nice bar or something and let them get it done...
  • GideonWiseGideonWise Posts: 1,123
    Quincel said:

    Indeed, but perhaps the media also shouldn't have spent the column inches in the first place. Filtering out the dross from the relevant information is meant to be an important part of their job.
    There is an incentive for individual journalists to offer the next hot-take. In particular, political journalists when they dip their toe into science seem to confuse themselves and think there is such thing as 'balance', as if there are always two sides to an argument. So they offer an alternative view thinking they are doing good.

    Most of the time this is harmless but when we are talking about a generational health crisis that necessitates public-adherence to a policy, then this idea of balance is actively dangerous. The likes of Neil seem to be intrinsically sceptical of academic experts predicting doom. Hitchens is simply a moron who has no idea on the difference between causation and correlation. He's an embarrassment and if anything positive can come from this virus it will be that his name is even more of a laughing stock. I'm sure though he'll double-down and spin some conspiracy theory that a few of his simple followers lap up.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,535
    edited March 2020

    It's a hardwired belief that only China can make things cheaply. This is not actually true anymore.
    And there is a realisation that cheaper is not always better. Crucial supplies are far better to be made much closer to home and under the control of states that we can trust e.g. I think it is clear far better to have Germany make testing kits, UK make ventilators, Sweden PPE, than China, than worrying about kits that only work 30% of the time or masks that are worse than useless, and inability to control the supply when China can takes over even British owned factories and diverts all the output to the domestic market.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,233
    tlg86 said:

    There’s nothing liberal about them. They are instinctively authoritarian; they look at the PRC as a model of government to be aspired to.
    You can hear that in Nick Palmers posts... All the people nicely lined up to obey their masters, properly....
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,030
    edited March 2020

    I know Trump likes to go on about the Fake News media...but f##k me, CH4 news literally just said how will it be possible to live in a lockdown like this for 6 months.

    Well, that isn't what deputy lady egg-head said at all. She was talking about it probably take 3-6 months before we can get back to total normal life. That isn't "lockdown".

    And secondly, the media are reporting this as if they have only just discovered this incredible top secret information. That is why you enormous bell-ends the government from the very start said we have to get the timing right on this as this isn't a couple of week thing we are going to be undertaking.

    You expect our media to report anything constructively

    This crisis has revealed our media to be out of their depth, too interested in gotcha moments, and entirely negative to Boris and HMG rather than sensible forensic questioning

    However, the people are not listening with 72% government approval rate
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,774


    Father Ted - truly the gift that keeps on giving. Father Jack For Pope!
    And Father Jack for chairman of Wetherspoons ?
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,375
    Andy_JS said:

    The governmental elite have some sort of weird love affair with China that the rest of us simply don't understand.
    China gave us this virus, now they are selling us stuff to deal with it.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,535

    There is an incentive for individual journalists to offer the next hot-take. In particular, political journalists when they dip their toe into science seem to confuse themselves and think there is such thing as 'balance', as if there are always two sides to an argument. So they offer an alternative view thinking they are doing good.

    In the past, we wouldn't have even known a lot of this and journalist could spout this stuff and very few people could challenge it. Now we all have the internet, we can personally read these papers and debunk the crap.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,233
    Foxy said:

    Though that is very different at the moment. The NHS is adapting very quickly since the internal market has been suspended.

    https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1244298415342850050?s=09
    War Socialism - 15 minutes after the all clear, the managers will be back. And they will have lists of those who need to be "dealt with" to ensure "an orderly transition back to proper operations"
  • jayfdeejayfdee Posts: 618
    Maybe this has been posted before, but this video could have been a Gov message, wash your hands, do not go outside, "Just killed a man, sometimes wish I had never gone out at all"
    https://en.as.com/en/2020/03/26/videos/1585227640_719175.html
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,272
    100% Muslim in that sample by the look of it.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,601

    War Socialism - 15 minutes after the all clear, the managers will be back. And they will have lists of those who need to be "dealt with" to ensure "an orderly transition back to proper operations"
    I would perhaps not express it in quite those terms, but I'd be equally wary of thinking change would be long term. In other places too, for example local government, people will be finding some areas do not seem as vital as they used to, but there will be concern at sticking to, shall we say, expedited and simplified procedures. Sometimes for good reasons, others for status quo.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,233
    eristdoof said:

    I don't see the relevance of Berlin, here. The average salaries for professionals are higher in Munich, Frankfurt and Hamburg.
    Not so sure about Hamburg. Berlin has demented housing costs... but the wages in the other German cities often put people in a worse position than in the UK.

    A professional wage in Manchester seems to put you in a much better place than a professional wage in Hamburg.
  • China gave us this virus, now they are selling us stuff to deal with it.
    That does not work
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,137
    Thought it was coping OK with quarantine.

    Then I caught myself thinking, "Maybe I should watch The Phantom Menace"

    Seriously worried now
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,535
    edited March 2020

    You expect our media to report anything constructively

    This crisis has revealed our media to be out of their depth, too interested in gotcha moments, and entirely negative to Boris and HMG rather than sensible forensic questioning

    However, the people are not listening with 72% government approval rate
    They really have been beyond terrible. We know they were very partisan on the Brexit debate, different media, different sides, and happy to spin things that reinforced their viewpoint.

    However, they have been just absolutely different league of shit-ness. All of them are screaming 6 MONNNNNNNNNTHHSSSSSSSS....

    Firstly, what she said has always been the plan and isn't a surprise. Secondly, it is massively irresponsible, as you are making it sound like we are going to be locked in our homes for that long and it will no doubt firstly make it even harder for those struggling with the idea of 3-4 weeks and secondly encourage more morons to go well f##k it, if it is going to be that long, what's the point.

    It why Boris tried to give some sunlight at the end of the tunnel with his hey if we can do this for 12 weeks we will be able to force this on the backfoot and save a hell of a lot of lives.
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,375
    It’s what’s happening, China has put the world in lockdown and has now reopened its factories.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,638

    I know Trump likes to go on about the Fake News media...but f##k me, CH4 news literally just said how will it be possible to live in a lockdown like this for 6 months.

    Well, that isn't what deputy lady egg-head said at all. She was talking about it probably take 3-6 months before we can get back to total normal life. That isn't "lockdown".

    And secondly, the media are reporting this as if they have only just discovered this incredible top secret information. That is why you enormous bell-ends the government from the very start said we have to get the timing right on this as this isn't a couple of week thing we are going to be undertaking.

    She literally says "The issue about the timeframe is really important. This is not to say we would be in complete lockdown for six months".
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,535
    edited March 2020
    Scott_xP said:

    Thought it was coping OK with quarantine.

    Then I caught myself thinking, "Maybe I should watch The Phantom Menace"

    Seriously worried now

    You know it has got really bad when you feel like watching the Hans Solo movie. And definitely call 999 if you feel an urge to listen to Radiohead live at Glastonbury.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,233
    kle4 said:

    I would perhaps not express it in quite those terms, but I'd be equally wary of thinking change would be long term. In other places too, for example local government, people will be finding some areas do not seem as vital as they used to, but there will be concern at sticking to, shall we say, expedited and simplified procedures. Sometimes for good reasons, others for status quo.
    I would go so far - the 300 page report merchants will be back with a vengeance and looking for payback.

    Remember the administrator a few years back - who when told that the her admin budget was to be reduced, put all the oncology nurses at a children's hospital on notice that they might be fired. And then emailed her pals about her genius in protecting her empire?
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,808
    One thing worrying me about all the lockdowns is that governments have now shown extremist environmental groups how easy it is to achieve their aims. With the cheapness of the required apparatus to make it happen and the fact some of these groups do have some knowledgable people in them I wonder how long before we get one of the "whatever it takes" groups to release their own virus
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,233
    Nigelb said:

    And Father Jack for chairman of Wetherspoons ?
    Feck! Arrrrrrrrssee! Gurlsss!

    Surely he could both?
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 10,033

    It’s what’s happening, China has put the world in lockdown and has now reopened its factories.

    Not deliberately.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,137

    And definitely call 999 if you feel an urge to listen to Radiohead live at Glastonbury.

    Well, they do say losing all sense of taste is a symptom...
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,137
    Pagan2 said:

    One thing worrying me about all the lockdowns is that governments have now shown extremist environmental groups how easy it is to achieve their aims. With the cheapness of the required apparatus to make it happen and the fact some of these groups do have some knowledgable people in them I wonder how long before we get one of the "whatever it takes" groups to release their own virus

    *cough*12 monkeys*cough*
  • It’s what’s happening, China has put the world in lockdown and has now reopened its factories.

    And will find the world closed to its goods
  • isamisam Posts: 41,342

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,535
    edited March 2020
    rkrkrk said:

    She literally says "The issue about the timeframe is really important. This is not to say we would be in complete lockdown for six months".
    36 min mark, in her response she doesn't say that at all. It is clear that she thinks 3 months of what we currently have and then the next 3 months there gradual lifting of restrictions until probably 6 months we are back to normal.


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-BsVCsGIMDQ
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,362
    Scott_xP said:

    Thought it was coping OK with quarantine.

    Then I caught myself thinking, "Maybe I should watch The Phantom Menace"

    Seriously worried now

    A surprise, to be sure. ;)


    Ah, my coat.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,362

    36 min mark, in her response she doesn't say that at all. It is clear that she thinks 3 months of what we currently have and then the next 3 months there gradual lifting of restrictions until probably 6 months we are back to normal.

    I wonder how long travel restrictions will stay in place.
  • jayfdeejayfdee Posts: 618
    eadric said:


    Ditto. Is there something about jogging and cycling which makes joggers and cyclists uniquely selfish?
    I have been cycling a lot recently, we are forced to ride in the gutter, moving out 2 metres guarantees you a short cut from a long painful Corvid death.
    Yes it is difficult for us all, however I agree, I see so many selfish cyclists, and I am a non selfish cyclist myself.
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,375

    Not deliberately.
    Can you explain the incredibly low number of cases in Beijing and Shanghai compared to the rest of the world ?
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,808
    Scott_xP said:

    *cough*12 monkeys*cough*
    while that was sort of the plot until now environmental groups never had any evidence that this sort of thing would work to shut down the western economies.

    The 12 monkeys plot I believe was an ultra extreme group who felt wiping out the race was a useful thing to do. You have to be on the extremest fringe to think that I would hope.

    Currently we have all sorts of people going on about carbon emissions reducing etc. The aim of people like xr. I suspect not even ISIS wanted to totally wipe out the race. I also think there are groups who would regard a million deaths as a price worth paying in the climate movement
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,535
    edited March 2020
    RobD said:

    I wonder how long travel restrictions will stay in place.
    I think a lot of the timeline is really dependent on having the ability to a) test those that have had it and b) the development of a rapid test for those that might have it.

    You can allow a lot more freedom if you know those that are immune and how to quickly shut down any new cases.

    Clearly a) is coming, but nobody seems to have and b) with any reliability / doesn't come with so many caveats that they aren't really practical in the real world.
  • ABZABZ Posts: 441
    eadric said:

    What the F. That was always the extreme worst case scenario.

    The REASONABLE worst case scenario was 500,000 dead, if the health system crashed

    And remember this is 20-40k in the FIRST WAVE. Spanish flu was more lethal when it came back for a second bite. We need a vaccine.
    Fortunately, a more brutal second wave seems unlikely. The virus seems to mutate slowly so no reason to expect it to be fundamentally nastier.

    In principle we could adapt vaccines to these changes - similar to the flu. But at least there is no evidence that it will be worse. Equally important, at least in the short term, are anti-virals, especially if they can act prophylactically.

    For an interesting discussion about how we can get out of wave I and move forward, see: https://www.aei.org/research-products/report/national-coronavirus-response-a-road-map-to-reopening/
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,823
    Scott_xP said:

    Thought it was coping OK with quarantine.

    Then I caught myself thinking, "Maybe I should watch The Phantom Menace"

    Seriously worried now

    Rather that than Rise of Skywalker. That was a giant turd.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,076
    eadric said:


    Ditto. Is there something about jogging and cycling which makes joggers and cyclists uniquely selfish?
    A few cyclists, a few joggers and a few walkers are selfish. More selfish cyclists pass you as cycling is faster.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    You know it has got really bad when you feel like watching the Hans Solo movie. And definitely call 999 if you feel an urge to listen to Radiohead live at Glastonbury.
    Or a desperate desire to go out and join the Tory party!
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,530
    eadric said:


    Ditto. Is there something about jogging and cycling which makes joggers and cyclists uniquely selfish?
    The two groups I justifiably resent are joggers and supermarket trolly users.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,535
    I genuinely wonder if we are all going to be getting some sort of virtual "badge" that says I am a plague survivor and those people will be allowed to live by different conditions.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,823

    The two groups I justifiably resent are joggers and supermarket trolly users.
    I've noticed that they are getting rid of baskets and the big trolleys at the supermarkets, the standard sized trolley is becoming standard. I think mostly because it forces separation.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,567
    MaxPB said:

    Rather that than Rise of Skywalker. That was a giant turd.
    Could have been worse still. Could have been The Last Jedi.
  • Should I be worried that the lockdown is making me agree with Piers Morgan?

    https://twitter.com/piersmorgan/status/1244337616952188931
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,535

    Should I be worried that the lockdown is making me agree with Piers Morgan?

    twitter.com/piersmorgan/status/1244337616952188931

    Has his twitter account been hacked?
This discussion has been closed.