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Louisiana should probably also be quarantined off tbh. Quarantine of areas in the USA probably easier given the viral hotboxes most seem to enjoy flying round between states in right now. It'd be much more difficult in the UK.
Crap weather here right now. Other half has been waiting for this though...

Pulpstar said:

rottenborough said:

NYTimes:

"Minutes after President Trump floated the possibility of a quarantine for the New York region, Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo on Saturday dismissed the idea, calling it “unworkable.”"

Everything is "unworkable" till it isn't.

Indeed, a few weeks ago the idea of closing 90% of the shops in Britain and confining the population to their homes would have been dismissed as fanciful.

Foxy said:

Andy_JS said:

another_richard said:

Andy_JS said:

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/FraserNelson/status/1243911741102272514?s=20

This is one of the biggest dangers of the current situation: people turning against each other.

Though London based people owning a second home in Cornwall have been unpopular for decades.

Ditto for other pretty scenery but low pay areas.

In a free society you can't stop people owning second homes without serious infringements on liberty.

In the medium term, I expect a revival of domestic tourism. A lot will be in second homes.

Incidentally, my Greek and Italian colleagues all seem to have holiday villas. Less pressure on housing there though maybe, as only urbanised more recently.

For the next year or so (until we get a vaccine) there will be little point in going abroad to quarantine yourself somewhere for 14 days....

As highlighted in the Economist the first wave of covid 19 infections in Italy was predominantly among older people, who are far more likely to die than younger people. The median age of those diagnosed with covid-19 in Italy is 63 years, compared with 47 in Germany. The two countries have a similar share of older people in the general population. But only 20% of cases reported in Germany are people aged over 60, compared with 56% of those in Italy. The early German cases seem to have mainly contracted the disease at carnivals and ski-resorts, which explains why the initial profile is so young.

There are now indications that older Germans are increasingly getting covid 19 which may lead to a marked increase in the Germany death rate.

ABZ said:

tyson said:

Charles said:

eadric said:

ABZ said:

Question: If we follow the pattern of Italy and Spain we will see case numbers rising across the country for the next 7-9 days. Following that there seems likely to be a period of increases in new cases by the same amount each day for a period. How will the country react to that, and that cases are not declining immediately? Will we demand tougher measures or will people be patient enough to (hopefully!) see it out and for cases to start tailing off a little?

By my seat of pants maths, Britain will be registering 1000-1500 deaths a day when we hit the peak. That means.... a lot of people in hospital

Was that the same maths that led you to predict up to 2 m dead in the U.K.?

260 deaths per day to a 1000 isn't that big a leap...two weeks of the numbers going up as they are now, doubling every 3 days......

Actually, I think @eadric may be about right. We can expect overall cases to double every 5-6 days now lockdown has commenced, so expecting around 70,000 cases in the UK (two doublings) by the end of next week is likely. (The number will change if we test more and if we change who we test of course.) Looking at other countries, the death rate @eadric suggests seems feasible towards the end of next week, likely continuing for a week or so before tailing off again.

@eadric forecast it will either wipe out every man, woman and child in the UK or be nothing more than the sniffles for everyone so he will be right whatever happens.

Of course the castastrophising is much more fun for a master wordsmith to run with.

NickPalmer said:

Roller-coaster story from a friend who is desperately trying to isolate her 95-year-old mother. Her niece cheerily sent a test "Have been visiting Grandpa". Aargh - Grandpa is dead so obviously a typo for Grandma. But WHY when the whole family have been told not to? An anguished, reproachful text got this reply "Calm down, it really was Grandpa, I've been to the cemetery."

(in a nice way!)

bigjohnowls said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Just to put some context to the 20,000 number...and without trying to sound heartless. Using egg-heads own model and numbers.

Between 50% and 66% would have died this year anyway because of old age or underlying condition. Of the remainder, the "excess deaths", the order of magnitude is basically what we have seen on a number of occasions with a really bad flu season.

20,000 sounds a lot, but the excess 33-50%, say ~8,000 excess deaths, isn't massively out of the ordinary for a particular bad year.

The difference in this case compared to say flu is, no action or ineffective action, the system totally melts down and you don't get 8,000 excess deaths you get 80,000.

I am glad our experts are willing to give the straight answer and no try and suger coat it. I am not really sure what BJO issue is with a scientist saying this.

He is neither a politician or a scientist. He is a Medical Director at NHSE!! He sounds like young Mr Grace 19,999 dead you've all done very well

I presumed you missed that Stephen Powis is also a Professor of Renal Medicine at University College London? I suppose you could argue that doesn't make him a "scientist".

not_on_fire said:

Pulpstar said:

rottenborough said:

NYTimes:

"Minutes after President Trump floated the possibility of a quarantine for the New York region, Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo on Saturday dismissed the idea, calling it “unworkable.”"

Everything is "unworkable" till it isn't.

Indeed, a few weeks ago the idea of closing 90% of the shops in Britain and confining the population to their homes would have been dismissed as fanciful.

Exponential growth with a built in delay factor comes at you fast.

Charles said:

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1243768693491789826

FWIW troponin was the one biomarker my Dad’s physician was monitoring like a hawk

ACE2 receptors are also on the heart, so once the virus gets into the bloodstream, it may cause myocarditis. Unusual as a presenting feature, I think.

Nigelb said:

david_herdson said:

another_richard said:

eadric said:

Looks like Wuhan had over 40,000 dead. In a city of 11m.

https://twitter.com/robertmcutler/status/1243795351976521733?s=21

That’s 0.36% of the population.

By covering things up China is responsible for everything the rest of the world will suffer.

Not everything. We are all responsible for our own actions - but only within the parameters of the information we have on which to make those decisions. China could - and should - have done a lot more.

Radio Free Asia is not exactly the World Service.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Radio_Free_Asia
I would take that story with almost as large a pinch of salt as the official Chinese numbers.

And yes, of course we are responsible for our own actions. Taiwan, for example, which is not exactly a friend of China..., was able to get sufficient warning from what was reported to activate their pandemic response most effectively.

ROC was not getting any information from the WHO (as they are not a member). But I suspect they have their own sources inside the PRC

bigjohnowls said:

ABZ said:

bigjohnowls said:

AndreaParma_82 said:

eristdoof said:

AndreaParma_82 said:

Italy

Active cases: 70,065 (+3,651 net increase)
Deaths: 10,023 (+889)
Healed: 12,384 (+1,434)

New cases: 5,974

Total tests: 429,526 (+35,447)

Hey Andrea, I was thinking last night I haven't seen a post from you in the last week or so. I hope all is well.

thanks. Yes, so far.
Here where I live the situation is not as disastrous as in nearby Bergamo (and Brescia looks as bad). In the municipality we have 26 verified cases out of 7,000 inhabitants.

More than 3% flipping heck what is it in Bergamo?

0.3%

Oh yes what is it in Bergamo?


0.75

8349 overall cases so far out of 1,114,590 population in the province at the end of 2019.
The mild symptoms cases are more likely to get missed in Bergamo than elsewhere given the number of other cases they have to process.
In the city of Bergamo is 0.85 (1,035 cases)

eristdoof said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Just to put some context to the 20,000 number...and without trying to sound heartless. Using egg-heads own model and numbers.

Between 50% and 66% would have died this year anyway because of old age or underlying condition. Of the remainder, the "excess deaths", the order of magnitude is basically what we have seen on a number of occasions with a really bad flu season.

20,000 sounds a lot, but the excess 33-50%, say ~8,000 excess deaths, isn't massively out of the ordinary for a particular bad year.

The difference in this case compared to say flu is, no action or ineffective action, the system totally melts down and you don't get 8,000 excess deaths you get 80,000.

I am glad our experts are willing to give the straight answer and no try and suger coat it.

Can you give example of over 40 medical staff in a country dying in one month due to seasonal flu, as has happened in Italy?

I'm not saying it hasn't happened, but if it has I would like to know.

Just to clarify, I am not and have never been "a just like flu"-er.

My point was about the pure numbers and why 20,000 is cause for somebody to say we have done well up against this highly infectious disease that has a very significant mortality rate among the old and have an incredible rate of hospitalization across the board compared to many other things.

My MOVID-19 moustache is looking pretty awful already...

TheScreamingEagles said:

Another 259 people have died in the UK after testing positive for coronavirus - with at least 13 of them having no underlying health problems.

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-number-of-uk-deaths-rise-by-260-taking-total-to-1-019-11965035

Being older than about 60 is an underlying health problem with this one.

SLAM said:

As highlighted in the Economist the first wave of covid 19 infections in Italy was predominantly among older people, who are far more likely to die than younger people. The median age of those diagnosed with covid-19 in Italy is 63 years, compared with 47 in Germany. The two countries have a similar share of older people in the general population. But only 20% of cases reported in Germany are people aged over 60, compared with 56% of those in Italy. The early German cases seem to have mainly contracted the disease at carnivals and ski-resorts, which explains why the initial profile is so young.

There are now indications that older Germans are increasingly getting covid 19 which may lead to a marked increase in the Germany death rate.

I don't think your analysis is correct.

I suspect that the Germans catching CV-19 look - age-wise - like everywhere else.

It's simply that the Germans are much earlier in their outbreak than the Italians, but are testing at 50x the rate. They are therefore catching/reporting a lot of people without symptoms yet.

The question (to me) is whether they are able to use this information to reduce R0 meaningfully.

The other question is this: Italy in particular was hammered by CV-19 getting into nursing and old peoples' homes. Has Germany learned this lesson? If they have, then one would expect their overall mortality to be better than Italy's.

Alzano Lombardo: 167 cases. Population at the end of 2019 13,665. It is 1.2%
Nembro: 204 cases. Population 11,526. 1.76%
Zogno: 121 cases. Population 8,883. 1.36%

In Zogno they stopped to ring the death bells every time. They ring it in the evening for everybody dead that day.

Foxy said:

Not bad today, just a bit fatigued. Mrs Foxy too. Just hanging around the house.

Every day is like a 1970's Sunday, only with better TV. Home cooking, gardening, reading. Not got so bad as to get out the board games yet.

That's really encouraging - go Foxy!

There was a survey a few weeks ago on what people would do if isolated. "Play board games" mysteriously fought it out as *least* popular with "Have more sex", which I'd have thought were the two best ideas. A nice game of Terraforming Mars is a nice time-filler, taking 3 hours or so (which perhaps makes it better as a time-filler for most of us, except of course Eadric).

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Another 259 people have died in the UK after testing positive for coronavirus - with at least 13 of them having no underlying health problems.

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-number-of-uk-deaths-rise-by-260-taking-total-to-1-019-11965035

Being older than about 60 is an underlying health problem with this one.

I'm kinda glad I shed 3 stone in the last year.

Thank goodness for AIDS, eh

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Another 259 people have died in the UK after testing positive for coronavirus - with at least 13 of them having no underlying health problems.

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-number-of-uk-deaths-rise-by-260-taking-total-to-1-019-11965035

Being older than about 60 is an underlying health problem with this one.

“ Those without underlying health conditions were aged between 63 and 99.”

I'm prepared to rethink my opposition to the death penalty for these people.

Police across the country are clamping down on people deliberately coughing on others during the coronavirus pandemic.

On separate occasions, NHS staff have been coughed at on purpose, a pensioner was spat on by a teenager, a man is accused of spitting blood in police officer's faces and another is accused of coughing on an officer while claiming he had coronavirus.

As the UK was placed on lockdown on Monday evening, police were given sweeping powers to ensure people stay at home and avoid non-essential travel during the COVID-19 crisis.

They have seen an increasing number of people using the disease to assault others.

Teenagers coughed at NHS staff

Police in Warrington, Cheshire, have promised to prosecute a group of teenagers who claimed to have coronavirus and deliberately coughed at NHS staff.

Sergeant Hillyard of Cheshire Police said: "The youths will be prosecuted as will their parental guardians.

"This is an absolutely abhorrent incident involving abuse of our NHS heroes.

"I will once again urge all parents and persons with parental responsibility to make sure that their children STAY INSIDE. You too can and will be prosecuted if you fail to keep your children inside."

Teenager coughed at pensioner while shouting 'coronavirus'

In Tameside, Greater Manchester, a 14-year-old boy has been charged with assault after a 66-year-old woman was coughed on and spat at.

Officers were called just before 8.30pm on Tuesday to a report that earlier that evening a boy had been coughing and shouting "coronavirus" at a woman in Ashton-under-Lyne town centre.

The boy, who cannot be named for legal reasons, is set to appear at Tameside Youth Court on 7 April.

Man spat blood in four police officers' faces

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-nhs-staff-police-and-public-being-coughed-on-by-people-claiming-to-have-covid-19-11965058

rcs1000 said:

bigjohnowls said:

https://www.thelocal.de/20200326/germany-ramps-up-coronavirus-tests-to-500000-a-week

I take it back.

That's pretty amazing. Germany is testing a huge number of people.

While Drosten is an authority - he also invented the first test for SARS, and his daily podcast is very good, others have estimated the testing as a bit lower. It does seem mad that nobody knows how many tests are being done. Positive tests have to be notified to authorities, but negative ones not.

Foxy said:

Jonathan said:

Foxy said:

Andy_JS said:

another_richard said:

Andy_JS said:

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/FraserNelson/status/1243911741102272514?s=20

This is one of the biggest dangers of the current situation: people turning against each other.

Though London based people owning a second home in Cornwall have been unpopular for decades.

Ditto for other pretty scenery but low pay areas.

In a free society you can't stop people owning second homes without serious infringements on liberty.

In the medium term, I expect a revival of domestic tourism. A lot will be in second homes.

Incidentally, my Greek and Italian colleagues all seem to have holiday villas. Less pressure on housing there though maybe, as only urbanised more recently.

How are you and yours doing?

Not bad today, just a bit fatigued. Mrs Foxy too. Just hanging around the house.

Every day is like a 1970's Sunday, only with better TV. Home cooking, gardening, reading. Not got so bad as to get out the board games yet.

Here's the Big Match for you, Man Utd vs Leicester

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yORSTTyqP28

https://twitter.com/football_ldn/status/1243953499081035776?s=21

Foxy said:

stodge said:

noneoftheabove said:

With global warming UK coastal towns are the future anyway, so this is another trend CV19 might just speed up. We will have people fleeing 45-50 degree heat on the med to see the delights of Margate, Southend and Blackpool and enjoy the 25-30 degrees by the sea.

The coastline of Northern Scotland will be the new tourist hub one day.

Places like Norfolk may well be under water though.

Always buy a house at least 50m above sea level!

And at least 50m from a cliff.

tyson said:

Charles said:

eadric said:

ABZ said:

Question: If we follow the pattern of Italy and Spain we will see case numbers rising across the country for the next 7-9 days. Following that there seems likely to be a period of increases in new cases by the same amount each day for a period. How will the country react to that, and that cases are not declining immediately? Will we demand tougher measures or will people be patient enough to (hopefully!) see it out and for cases to start tailing off a little?

By my seat of pants maths, Britain will be registering 1000-1500 deaths a day when we hit the peak. That means.... a lot of people in hospital

Was that the same maths that led you to predict up to 2 m dead in the U.K.?

260 deaths per day to a 1000 isn't that big a leap...two weeks of the numbers going up as they are now, doubling every 3 days......

But the author doesn’t have a good track record (and the likelihood is the rate of increase will moderate)

rcs1000 said:

isam said:

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Another 259 people have died in the UK after testing positive for coronavirus - with at least 13 of them having no underlying health problems.

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-number-of-uk-deaths-rise-by-260-taking-total-to-1-019-11965035

Being older than about 60 is an underlying health problem with this one.

“ Those without underlying health conditions were aged between 63 and 99.”

I'm impressed by the 99 year old without any underltying health issues

If I got to 99 with no underlying health issues at all and then got carried off quick sharp by a virus I think I would take that.

Things that seemingly improve your odds in this one:

From the least to the most controllable.

i) Being young
ii) Being female.
iii) Having no underlying conditions
iv) Being a healthy weight
v) Being able to rest once you have it.
vi) Access to good healthcare.

i and ii) You can't do anything those - they are set in stone for you. Covid19 doesn't care about what you identify as either.

iii) You might have been able to do something about those once, but not now. Genetics plays a large roll in this

iv) You could have done something about before the virus arrived but you didn't know it was coming so it is what it is now.

v) and vi) are the crucial reasons for the lockdown.

SLAM said:

As highlighted in the Economist the first wave of covid 19 infections in Italy was predominantly among older people, who are far more likely to die than younger people. The median age of those diagnosed with covid-19 in Italy is 63 years, compared with 47 in Germany. The two countries have a similar share of older people in the general population. But only 20% of cases reported in Germany are people aged over 60, compared with 56% of those in Italy. The early German cases seem to have mainly contracted the disease at carnivals and ski-resorts, which explains why the initial profile is so young.

There are now indications that older Germans are increasingly getting covid 19 which may lead to a marked increase in the Germany death rate.

I wonder if that is a real difference, or whether the Germans are picking up a higher percentage of cases and therefore not missing so many milder ones .among young and middle-aged people.

bigjohnowls said:

Charles said:

bigjohnowls said:

Germany 500,000 tests per week. Excess supply of Critical Care beds and Ventilators. Very low death rate.

It is shameful we accept that a Government Minister says on live TV 20,000 deaths in the UK means we have done well.

Expectation management of the worst kind reminiscent of something Trump might say.

Do you have a source for 500k tests per week?

BBC bloke said it after todays briefing.

Forgive me if I don’t count that as more than hearsay to be honest.

DougSeal said:

Charles said:

bigjohnowls said:

rottenborough said:

NYTimes:

"Minutes after President Trump floated the possibility of a quarantine for the New York region, Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo on Saturday dismissed the idea, calling it “unworkable.”"

I am with Trump on that one myself

Isn’t there a movie series where they close the bridges to Manhattan Island and leave it as a plague ridden prison hellhole?

Escape from New York with Kurt Russell and Donald Sutherland

Donald Pleasence. :-)

Andy_JS said:

felix said:

Glancing at the UK dashboard - at first glance the virus seems to be very much more prevalent in Remain than Leave areas. Very striking. At the risk of re-igniting the fires.......

That's mainly because Remain areas tend to be more urban. The Highlands of Scotland also voted Remain but I doubt they'll be as affected, so it probably isn't anything to do with how people voted in the referendum.

Interesting you should mention the Highlands - that was the one region where Brexit was nearly 50/50.

Charles said:

tyson said:

Charles said:

eadric said:

ABZ said:

Question: If we follow the pattern of Italy and Spain we will see case numbers rising across the country for the next 7-9 days. Following that there seems likely to be a period of increases in new cases by the same amount each day for a period. How will the country react to that, and that cases are not declining immediately? Will we demand tougher measures or will people be patient enough to (hopefully!) see it out and for cases to start tailing off a little?

By my seat of pants maths, Britain will be registering 1000-1500 deaths a day when we hit the peak. That means.... a lot of people in hospital

Was that the same maths that led you to predict up to 2 m dead in the U.K.?

260 deaths per day to a 1000 isn't that big a leap...two weeks of the numbers going up as they are now, doubling every 3 days......

But the author doesn’t have a good track record (and the likelihood is the rate of increase will moderate)

Rate of increases in new cases (modulo test numbers) will moderate quite quickly. Deaths will be a lagging indicator so that will probably rise more rapidly for a bit and then level off, if we are similar to other countries.

Gallowgate said:

My MOVID-19 moustache is looking pretty awful already...

Wor Lass was less than impressed by my DIY haircutting effort!

another_richard said:

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Another 259 people have died in the UK after testing positive for coronavirus - with at least 13 of them having no underlying health problems.

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-number-of-uk-deaths-rise-by-260-taking-total-to-1-019-11965035

Being older than about 60 is an underlying health problem with this one.

I'm kinda glad I shed 3 stone in the last year.

Likewise.

I bet your horse is as well

Hah - I'm not really the rider, just get the fun part of mucking out. Our friends all seem to be more or less recovered now so if we get sick they can do ours for us.

Foxy said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Foxy said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Another 259 people have died in the UK after testing positive for coronavirus - with at least 13 of them having no underlying health problems.

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-number-of-uk-deaths-rise-by-260-taking-total-to-1-019-11965035

Being older than about 60 is an underlying health problem with this one.

I'm kinda glad I shed 3 stone in the last year.

Well done!

What used to be an Alexie Sayle suit, now a zoot suit?

Yah, next step is to fit in to a slim fit suit.

There may be difficulty getting to the tailor though...

Indeed, I'm kinda annoyed that back in 2017 I spent 2 grand on a morning suit, and the only use I can now get out of it is to use it as a tent.

Luckyguy1983 said:

tyson said:

Food wise...how are people going?

we are now onto mash potatoes and baked beans with some cheddar ontop...lovely actually...my goto dish as a student....I'm holding out going back to the supermarket as long as possible

Where do you live? If you don't mind me asking - are you in Italy?

I'm back in Oxford now...after Norwich...(and Italy).....

I just don't want to go shopping at all..my wife (Italian) has turned all a bit Howard Hughes.....and she is frantic she cannot see her family...

I'm thinking Tuesday morning may present an opportunity to go to Waitrose.....

isam said:

What’s the guesses as to how and when the restrictions will be relaxed?

Giving it no thought, I’d say 3 weeks we can have visitors to the house, social distancing still, some more shops can open... pubs, restaurants etc about a month after that?

I think one key point will be getting children back to school. That will be a clear sign of return to normality followed, as you say, by an easing on businesses so more will open.

Foxy said:

Malmesbury said:

Foxy said:

Andy_JS said:

another_richard said:

Andy_JS said:

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/FraserNelson/status/1243911741102272514?s=20

This is one of the biggest dangers of the current situation: people turning against each other.

Though London based people owning a second home in Cornwall have been unpopular for decades.

Ditto for other pretty scenery but low pay areas.

In a free society you can't stop people owning second homes without serious infringements on liberty.

In the medium term, I expect a revival of domestic tourism. A lot will be in second homes.

Incidentally, my Greek and Italian colleagues all seem to have holiday villas. Less pressure on housing there though maybe, as only urbanised more recently.

A lot of people in Greece, Italy and Spain have second homes - because they still have the family home where they came from (no especial value in sale price), but moved to the cities for work etc.

Quite startling for those in the artificially "pumped" property zones to hear how little a picturesque cottage in the hills around Laconia can go for.

Yes, mostly family properties, but not all.

Greece urbanised a lot during the Civil War it seems, when it was unsafe to live in rural areas.

At least two of our Greek doctors are trapped there by the lockdown, and another in Pakistan unable to get a flight.

Every now and then a friend tempts me with "Buy a house in my home town. On your credit card". The problem is getting there. There was one on a Greek island.... basically you would need your own boat. Shades of the Count of Monte Cristo.

tyson said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

tyson said:

Food wise...how are people going?

we are now onto mash potatoes and baked beans with some cheddar ontop...lovely actually...my goto dish as a student....I'm holding out going back to the supermarket as long as possible

Where do you live? If you don't mind me asking - are you in Italy?

I'm back in Oxford now...after Norwich...(and Italy).....

I just don't want to go shopping at all..my wife (Italian) has turned all a bit Howard Hughes.....and she is frantic she cannot see her family...

I'm thinking Tuesday morning may present an opportunity to go to Waitrose.....

Do it. Baked beans potato and cheese is delicious and not entirely without nutrition but not a suitable meal to have every night. You need some leafy greens and fresh fruit and veg, alive foods. In many ways, a strategy to build up your internal resistance to Coronavirus is as important as avoiding the external risk of infection.

ABZ said:

Charles said:

tyson said:

Charles said:

eadric said:

ABZ said:

Question: If we follow the pattern of Italy and Spain we will see case numbers rising across the country for the next 7-9 days. Following that there seems likely to be a period of increases in new cases by the same amount each day for a period. How will the country react to that, and that cases are not declining immediately? Will we demand tougher measures or will people be patient enough to (hopefully!) see it out and for cases to start tailing off a little?

By my seat of pants maths, Britain will be registering 1000-1500 deaths a day when we hit the peak. That means.... a lot of people in hospital

Was that the same maths that led you to predict up to 2 m dead in the U.K.?

260 deaths per day to a 1000 isn't that big a leap...two weeks of the numbers going up as they are now, doubling every 3 days......

But the author doesn’t have a good track record (and the likelihood is the rate of increase will moderate)

Rate of increases in new cases (modulo test numbers) will moderate quite quickly. Deaths will be a lagging indicator so that will probably rise more rapidly for a bit and then level off, if we are similar to other countries.

Yes, but I don’t think you were around for @eadric ’s earlier forays into epidemiology

One of our neighbours has advised that back in February he had an intermittent fever and one day lost his sense of smell. Sounds like it, doesn’t it?

tyson said:

Charles said:

eadric said:

ABZ said:

Question: If we follow the pattern of Italy and Spain we will see case numbers rising across the country for the next 7-9 days. Following that there seems likely to be a period of increases in new cases by the same amount each day for a period. How will the country react to that, and that cases are not declining immediately? Will we demand tougher measures or will people be patient enough to (hopefully!) see it out and for cases to start tailing off a little?

By my seat of pants maths, Britain will be registering 1000-1500 deaths a day when we hit the peak. That means.... a lot of people in hospital

Was that the same maths that led you to predict up to 2 m dead in the U.K.?

260 deaths per day to a 1000 isn't that big a leap...two weeks of the numbers going up as they are now, doubling every 3 days......

260 doubled every 3 days is 1000 deaths in 6 days, not 2 weeks.

Charles said:

Malmesbury said:

Charles said:

bigjohnowls said:

rottenborough said:

NYTimes:

"Minutes after President Trump floated the possibility of a quarantine for the New York region, Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo on Saturday dismissed the idea, calling it “unworkable.”"

I am with Trump on that one myself

Isn’t there a movie series where they close the bridges to Manhattan Island and leave it as a plague ridden prison hellhole?

Bob Hauk : There was an accident. About an hour ago, a small jet went down inside New York City. The President was on board.
Snake Plissken : The president of what?

That’s the one 😆

The sequel was unwatchable.. apart from

Gunshots

"Draw"

tlg86 said:

Pulpstar said:

What's going to go up in taxes after this is over ?

Equalisation of self employed/employed tax payments
Penny on income tax for basic rate, perhaps 3p or so for higher rate - all hypothecated to the NHS
Fuel duty hike
All for starters, probably plenty of other stuff to go up too.

VAT to 25%.

VAT has been the usual recourse.....

felix said:

Fascinating on the EU summit fiasco this week. A very hard lesson for Pedro Sanchez in Spain:

https://english.elpais.com/economy_and_business/2020-03-28/do-we-have-a-deal-pedro-an-inside-look-at-the-clash-between-eu-leaders-at-coronavirus-summit.html?ssm=FB_CM_EN&utm_source=Facebook&fbclid=IwAR29Bgc3V3v8K3ow9Ret9sAWvJW6mQB7w24GSHF5q77U2rJcSWENFWAelbA#Echobox=1585411491

So EZ countries are left without supply side support from their central bank and are going to be left relying entirely on fiscal policies. Bad news for them, bad news for us, bad news for the global economy.

SandyRentool said:

Charles said:

SandyRentool said:

Gallowgate said:

My MOVID-19 moustache is looking pretty awful already...

Wor Lass was less than impressed by my DIY haircutting effort!

She didn’t buy that you were trying to make her laugh?

I just need to undress to achieve that result!

Surely it would have been better for her to cut your hair?

eristdoof said:

tyson said:

Charles said:

eadric said:

ABZ said:

Question: If we follow the pattern of Italy and Spain we will see case numbers rising across the country for the next 7-9 days. Following that there seems likely to be a period of increases in new cases by the same amount each day for a period. How will the country react to that, and that cases are not declining immediately? Will we demand tougher measures or will people be patient enough to (hopefully!) see it out and for cases to start tailing off a little?

By my seat of pants maths, Britain will be registering 1000-1500 deaths a day when we hit the peak. That means.... a lot of people in hospital

Was that the same maths that led you to predict up to 2 m dead in the U.K.?

260 deaths per day to a 1000 isn't that big a leap...two weeks of the numbers going up as they are now, doubling every 3 days......

260 doubled every 3 days is 1000 deaths in 6 days, not 2 weeks.

Yes, but the doubling rate will slow down before the peak.

TGOHF666 said:

tyson said:

stodge said:

isam said:

What’s the guesses as to how and when the restrictions will be relaxed?

Giving it no thought, I’d say 3 weeks we can have visitors to the house, social distancing still, some more shops can open... pubs, restaurants etc about a month after that?

I think one key point will be getting children back to school. That will be a clear sign of return to normality followed, as you say, by an easing on businesses so more will open.

I'm with Eadric on this one...six months...a year...

there is no way people are going to be willing to go out and mingle until they feel safe....

there is no way they are going to put their kids in school

and that'll take a vaccine, or.... a mass movement App where everyone is green and visualised....

We need a game changer.....especially because in the next month or so the shitshow begins.....

Schools will be back in May.
We’ve over reacted a bit which is fine - but after Easter everyone will be keen to get back to grafting and leave the oldies to self isolate.

I can tell you there is no way people are going to go back to normal without feeling safe...unless Covid miraculously disappears, it will take a vaccine or some kind of technology....

Charles said:

rcs1000 said:

Charles said:

bigjohnowls said:

Germany 500,000 tests per week. Excess supply of Critical Care beds and Ventilators. Very low death rate.

It is shameful we accept that a Government Minister says on live TV 20,000 deaths in the UK means we have done well.

Expectation management of the worst kind reminiscent of something Trump might say.

Do you have a source for 500k tests per week?

I would be staggered if Germany was doing 500k per week. (Impressed. Staggered. And also surprised.)

Longview sources it to a doctor in Berlin on a radio show. I’m wondering if there is a more official source. Doesn’t pass the sniff test.

It sounds a little high but the "doctor on a radio show" is Christian Drosten head of virology at the Berlin Charité and not someone to make up a random number

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Drosten