politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Concern about ballot form confusion could be behind falling

Richard_Tyndall said:

TOPPING said:

meanwhile...

...received a UKIP leaflet through the door today.

Must say it is distasteful. Immigration this, foreigners taking our jobs that.

I am a fan of UKIP in principle, and have sympathy for those who genuinely want out of the EU and to have a sensible immigration debate, only to be patronised by the so-called intelligentsia.

But the leaflet is ugly and Farage's gob on the back of it associates him with this ugliness. It harks back to the worst days of the NF and BNP and as such will alienate many people; those it attracts well, let's just say that they and I would not be comfortable conversational partners.

If I were UKIP I would pretty quickly include a few things about jobs, health, defence, and tone down the anti-foreigner, anti-immigrant rhetoric or the whole thing could backfire. Go the NOTA route fine, sweep up votes there, but looking at this thing sympathy evaporates quickly.

Topping, every post I have seen you make on here on the subject has been vehemently opposed to UKIP. I am hardly surprised you have not a good word to say about their leaflet.

Richard_Tyndall said:

fitalass said:

Dan Hannan in the Daily Telegraph - If it comes down to immigration versus investment, Britain will vote to stay in the EU

"We’re losing, we Get-Outers. Every opinion poll shows that opposition to EU membership has fallen over the past 12 months. Most now have a majority for staying in and, while one or two still have secessionists in front, all show the same trend."

Ooooo Partial quoting there Fitlass. The whole article is basically designed to attack UKIP and set out an alternative vision for Britain outside of the EU. It shows that the argument can and will be won on the basis of the economic benefits of leaving the EU rather than immigration.

I don't claim that Hannan is wrong but your partial posting does rather give a false impression of the tone of his article.

isam said:

JosiasJessop said:

isam said:

JosiasJessop said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

volcanopete said:

If every immigrant left the UK,what would happen? Vice asked an expert.Vice are another young,vibrant bunch,asking the awkward questions young people do.
http://www.vice.com/read/we-asked-an-expert-what-would-happen-if-every-immigrant-left-the-uk

Pointless question because as far as I know no one is advocating every immigrant leaving. Some people have too much time and not enough basic common sense.

I agree with the first part (at least outside the BNP and similar nutjobs). But it might be nice if occasionally UKIP supporters actually had something nice and/or positive to say about immigrants, especially the kind they'd like in the country.

The same for Europe. As a silly example: "Hey, I love going to Spain for holidays, and I'd love the Spanish to come over here to enjoy our rain. But I think that it's in both of our countries' best interests to control the number of low-skilled people moving between them.", or somesuch.

Instead, and for understandable reasons, it sometimes concentrates a little too much on the negative, at least in my eyes. Then again, I'm biased ...

The fact that the leader is married to, and has two children with, a German should be a bit of a hint that the party doesn't stand for hatred of Europe/Europeans

That doesn't follow in the least.

And I repeat: it would be nice occasionally to see UKIP supporters being more positive about Europe, whilst saying our paths lie apart in friendship. And the same goes for immigration.

Why doesn't it follow?
The popular leader of a party that wants out of the EU is married to a German. I presume he is in love with her. What could be more positive?

fitalass said:

Richard, I posted only the first paragraph of this article along with a link for no other reason than to save OGH and the site moderators any hassles with that publication!! If you had been around the site more in recent months, you would aware that we have been asked not copy and paste too much of such articles on this site any longer!! I won't hold my breathe for an apology for the totally wrong assumption you then jumped to the minute I posted the article!!

TOPPING said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

TOPPING said:

meanwhile...

...received a UKIP leaflet through the door today.

Must say it is distasteful. Immigration this, foreigners taking our jobs that.

I am a fan of UKIP in principle, and have sympathy for those who genuinely want out of the EU and to have a sensible immigration debate, only to be patronised by the so-called intelligentsia.

But the leaflet is ugly and Farage's gob on the back of it associates him with this ugliness. It harks back to the worst days of the NF and BNP and as such will alienate many people; those it attracts well, let's just say that they and I would not be comfortable conversational partners.

If I were UKIP I would pretty quickly include a few things about jobs, health, defence, and tone down the anti-foreigner, anti-immigrant rhetoric or the whole thing could backfire. Go the NOTA route fine, sweep up votes there, but looking at this thing sympathy evaporates quickly.

Topping, every post I have seen you make on here on the subject has been vehemently opposed to UKIP. I am hardly surprised you have not a good word to say about their leaflet.

I have never believed UKIP to be anything other than the new NOTA now that the previous NOTA is in govt. I also have doubts that they will have the patience to create a comprehensive policy platform that people can understand and vote for.

I believe their vote share will sink to 3-5% come GE2015.

I also believe their views (although I have understood them in only the broadest brushes) on Europe and immigrants to have some merit (as articulated by the Kippers on here).

But this leaflet takes them out of the reasoned Kipper debate which the likes of you and @Sam expound and into something much uglier.

It seems I may have got UKIP wrong, believing from your posts, that it was a more balanced, not to say reasoned view.

The leaflets are pretty horrible in the language and tone they use.

Richard_Tyndall said:

fitalass said:

Richard, I posted only the first paragraph of this article along with a link for no other reason than to save OGH and the site moderators any hassles with that publication!! If you had been around the site more in recent months, you would aware that we have been asked not copy and paste too much of such articles on this site any longer!! I won't hold my breathe for an apology for the totally wrong assumption you then jumped to the minute I posted the article!!

In which case you should have also posted something of a precis to balance out the misleading quote. I did it in a couple of sentences, so could you have done if you were really interested in balance.

Richard_Tyndall said:

JosiasJessop said:

Well, for one thing a leader is not a party.

For another, it is easy to be positive about an individual whilst being negative about the majority. I see this sometimes with respect to my good wife, particularly from older people: "Oh, I never think of her as foreign (/an immigrant). She speaks such good English." Indeed, it can be used as an excuse: because they like one or two individuals, it excuses a dislike of the majority.

As an aside, if the ability to come here to live and work from the EU is severely restricted, as is, I believe, UKIP's position, then he will be denying other people the opportunity to marry the EU foreigner they love.

But my main point remains: a more positive, friendly view of both Europe / immigrants, whilst stating that we want to be apart / limit numbers), would be helpful to UKIP, in my eyes at least.

And yet that opportunity is, on the basis of your argument at least, denied to those who might fall in love with anyone from outside the EU. All that is being suggested by UKIP is that the field should be levelled and that migrants from both inside and outside the EU should be treated the same way. The actual level of migration is then a different question but we will at least be treating everyone equally.

MonikerDiCanio said:

volcanopete said:

If every immigrant left the UK,what would happen? Vice asked an expert.Vice are another young,vibrant bunch,asking the awkward questions young people do.
http://www.vice.com/read/we-asked-an-expert-what-would-happen-if-every-immigrant-left-the-uk

"Numerous media sources reported in mid-August 2013 that Rupert Murdoch's corporation 21st Century Fox had invested US$70 million in Vice Media, resulting in a 5 percent stake. Following the announcement, Smith explained, "We have set ourselves up to build a global platform but we have maintained control.""

Young,vibrant Murdoch hacks. Doing their master's bidding.

TOPPING said:

Without a manifesto 12 months out? Hmm. Yet to be convinced. None of them are as far as I can see political operators, excepting Farage, so I don't rate the chances of them pulling a rabbit out of the hat policy-wise. At least the LDs were pretty straightforward left of Labour, and far to the left of New Labour.

Of course this came to bite them in the bum in the coalition but UKIP aren't anything apart from an anti-EU/anti-immigration party.

They are a pressure group albeit one that has tapped into the zeitgeist.

I make 10% too high.

JosiasJessop said:

TOPPING said:

Without a manifesto 12 months out? Hmm. Yet to be convinced. None of them are as far as I can see political operators, excepting Farage, so I don't rate the chances of them pulling a rabbit out of the hat policy-wise. At least the LDs were pretty straightforward left of Labour, and far to the left of New Labour.

Of course this came to bite them in the bum in the coalition but UKIP aren't anything apart from an anti-EU/anti-immigration party.

They are a pressure group albeit one that has tapped into the zeitgeist.

I make 10% too high.

Fair enough; I may well be over-estimating. I agree about the lack of canny political operators: they appear to have no-one on Mandelson's level, for instance, and Farage is only on the level below him. But there aren't many Mandelson's about, thank goodness.

I've blasted UKIP about their 2010 GE manifesto in the past, and will continue to do so. It was a mess entirely of their own doing. But it's unlikely that it will impinge one iota on the average UKIP voter's mind at GE2015. This is not true of the Lib Dems, who will be bashed around the head with the 2010 tuition fee pledge.

As we've been seeing, UKIP's current Achilles heel is it's candidates, and Farage has admitted their vetting isn't good enough. If this can be got into order, without upsetting too many people, then UKIP would be in a much stronger position. And to be frank, they only need to get their vetting up to the standard of the other parties', which is hardly high.

There's everything to play for, on all sides.

notme said:

anotherDave said:

welshowl said:

Danny565 said:

Revealed: How parts of Britain are now poorer than POLAND with families in Wales and Cornwall among Europe's worst off

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2617938/Revealed-How-parts-Britain-poorer-POLAND-families-Wales-Cornwall-Europes-worst-off.html

(NB: Source is Daily Mail so usual caveats apply.)

Further proof of the south east and London being showered with goodies that have been stolen from the rest of the UK. And then people wonder why there's such a fury and resentment towards the south east, most vividly on display in Scotland but fast bubbling away under the surface in northern England too.

Without train loads of cash being sent west of Offa's Dike, the Welsh economy would collapse to about Portugal's GDP per head I would imagine. Cardiff and the Vale of Glamorgan are about UK average, everywhere else less, many parts of the Valleys lots less. Take out the back room jobs such as RAF Valley, Companies' House, DVLA, Patent Office etc and the devastation would be even greater. There is NO doubt Wales is economically better off as a result of transfers from London and the S East.

I think there was a US study (of pork barrel gov't spending) that showed gov't spending in an area had a negative effect on private sector jobs.

Woudnt some kind of fiscal autonomy be good for Wales though? Allow them to find their niche and compete?

isam said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

JosiasJessop said:

Well, for one thing a leader is not a party.

For another, it is easy to be positive about an individual whilst being negative about the majority. I see this sometimes with respect to my good wife, particularly from older people: "Oh, I never think of her as foreign (/an immigrant). She speaks such good English." Indeed, it can be used as an excuse: because they like one or two individuals, it excuses a dislike of the majority.

As an aside, if the ability to come here to live and work from the EU is severely restricted, as is, I believe, UKIP's position, then he will be denying other people the opportunity to marry the EU foreigner they love.

But my main point remains: a more positive, friendly view of both Europe / immigrants, whilst stating that we want to be apart / limit numbers), would be helpful to UKIP, in my eyes at least.

And yet that opportunity is, on the basis of your argument at least, denied to those who might fall in love with anyone from outside the EU. All that is being suggested by UKIP is that the field should be levelled and that migrants from both inside and outside the EU should be treated the same way. The actual level of migration is then a different question but we will at least be treating everyone equally.

I am dating an Australian girl, and she reckons that even though she has been here 12 years, it is aggro every time she comes back from holiday through immigration. She has paid taxes, has unconditional leave to remain etc etc

Why should she go through all that yet a Bulgarian/French/ etc lady just bowl through?

Mind you last night she introduced me to a Jamaican bloke as "one of those BNP supporters".. could've been messy!

isam said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

JosiasJessop said:

Well, for one thing a leader is not a party.

For another, it is easy to be positive about an individual whilst being negative about the majority. I see this sometimes with respect to my good wife, particularly from older people: "Oh, I never think of her as foreign (/an immigrant). She speaks such good English." Indeed, it can be used as an excuse: because they like one or two individuals, it excuses a dislike of the majority.

As an aside, if the ability to come here to live and work from the EU is severely restricted, as is, I believe, UKIP's position, then he will be denying other people the opportunity to marry the EU foreigner they love.

But my main point remains: a more positive, friendly view of both Europe / immigrants, whilst stating that we want to be apart / limit numbers), would be helpful to UKIP, in my eyes at least.

And yet that opportunity is, on the basis of your argument at least, denied to those who might fall in love with anyone from outside the EU. All that is being suggested by UKIP is that the field should be levelled and that migrants from both inside and outside the EU should be treated the same way. The actual level of migration is then a different question but we will at least be treating everyone equally.

I am dating an Australian girl, and she reckons that even though she has been here 12 years, it is aggro every time she comes back from holiday through immigration. She has paid taxes, has unconditional leave to remain etc etc

Why should she go through all that yet a Bulgarian/French/ etc lady just bowl through?

Mind you last night she introduced me to a Jamaican bloke as "one of those BNP supporters".. could've been messy!

JohnLilburne said:

isam said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

JosiasJessop said:

Well, for one thing a leader is not a party.

For another, it is easy to be positive about an individual whilst being negative about the majority. I see this sometimes with respect to my good wife, particularly from older people: "Oh, I never think of her as foreign (/an immigrant). She speaks such good English." Indeed, it can be used as an excuse: because they like one or two individuals, it excuses a dislike of the majority.

As an aside, if the ability to come here to live and work from the EU is severely restricted, as is, I believe, UKIP's position, then he will be denying other people the opportunity to marry the EU foreigner they love.

But my main point remains: a more positive, friendly view of both Europe / immigrants, whilst stating that we want to be apart / limit numbers), would be helpful to UKIP, in my eyes at least.

And yet that opportunity is, on the basis of your argument at least, denied to those who might fall in love with anyone from outside the EU. All that is being suggested by UKIP is that the field should be levelled and that migrants from both inside and outside the EU should be treated the same way. The actual level of migration is then a different question but we will at least be treating everyone equally.

I am dating an Australian girl, and she reckons that even though she has been here 12 years, it is aggro every time she comes back from holiday through immigration. She has paid taxes, has unconditional leave to remain etc etc

Why should she go through all that yet a Bulgarian/French/ etc lady just bowl through?

Mind you last night she introduced me to a Jamaican bloke as "one of those BNP supporters".. could've been messy!

If she has lived here for 12 years and has ILR, why does she not apply for British citizenship?

kle4 said:

Oh Liverpool. A decent goalkeeper and two good defenders and the league was there for the taking. As it is, we got lucky with many wins after conceding a lot, and the luck has run out in the final three games. Still, I suppose Man City could drop 4-5 points in their final 2 games, right? Oh wait, Aston Villa and West Ham, never mind.

JohnLilburne said:

JosiasJessop said:

Well, for one thing a leader is not a party.

For another, it is easy to be positive about an individual whilst being negative about the majority. I see this sometimes with respect to my good wife, particularly from older people: "Oh, I never think of her as foreign (/an immigrant). She speaks such good English." Indeed, it can be used as an excuse: because they like one or two individuals, it excuses a dislike of the majority.

As an aside, if the ability to come here to live and work from the EU is severely restricted, as is, I believe, UKIP's position, then he will be denying other people the opportunity to marry the EU foreigner they love.

Surely this is a bit of a straw man argument, any sensible immigration policy would include arrangements by which the foreign spouses of British citizens can come and live here.

isam said:

JosiasJessop said:

TOPPING said:

Without a manifesto 12 months out? Hmm. Yet to be convinced. None of them are as far as I can see political operators, excepting Farage, so I don't rate the chances of them pulling a rabbit out of the hat policy-wise. At least the LDs were pretty straightforward left of Labour, and far to the left of New Labour.

Of course this came to bite them in the bum in the coalition but UKIP aren't anything apart from an anti-EU/anti-immigration party.

They are a pressure group albeit one that has tapped into the zeitgeist.

I make 10% too high.

Fair enough; I may well be over-estimating. I agree about the lack of canny political operators: they appear to have no-one on Mandelson's level, for instance, and Farage is only on the level below him. But there aren't many Mandelson's about, thank goodness.

I've blasted UKIP about their 2010 GE manifesto in the past, and will continue to do so. It was a mess entirely of their own doing. But it's unlikely that it will impinge one iota on the average UKIP voter's mind at GE2015. This is not true of the Lib Dems, who will be bashed around the head with the 2010 tuition fee pledge.

As we've been seeing, UKIP's current Achilles heel is it's candidates, and Farage has admitted their vetting isn't good enough. If this can be got into order, without upsetting too many people, then UKIP would be in a much stronger position. And to be frank, they only need to get their vetting up to the standard of the other parties', which is hardly high.

There's everything to play for, on all sides.

The betting would suggest UKIP will get about 9-10%

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/ukip-vote-percentage

isam said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Isam, much of the grumpiness was about Scotland's referendum, and the recent stuff seems to be somewhat on the trivial side. Not sure UKIP's the cause.

Same applies really...

If UKIP continue to do well and Yes to Scottish independence looks like winning we will see some desperate stuff from the establishment and their supporters

HurstLlama said:

Well, going back in time that used to be the case, but it was changed. Must have been changed for a reason, I wonder what it was.

MikeSmithson said:

Great result by Palace against Liverpool - scraping a 3-3 draw after being 3 down.

MarqueeMark said:

MikeSmithson said:

Great result by Palace against Liverpool - scraping a 3-3 draw after being 3 down.

Tony Pulis now manager of the season?

NickPalmer said:

JohnLilburne said:

Surely this is a bit of a straw man argument, any sensible immigration policy would include arrangements by which the foreign spouses of British citizens can come and live here.

Not the case at the moment. I have an anguished constituent who is desperate to marry his long-standing girlfriend from the Phillippines, but doesn't earn the £22K that he says is needed to make the Home Office satisfied. He sees no prospect of ever getting her over, and is thinking about emigrating to join her. He would be happy to provide years' worth of evidence that the relationship is genuine.

No YG tonight because of the Bank Holiday?

By the way, O/T - what is the law if you park overlapping someone's drive entrance? I did so tonight, after checking that there was plenty of room to get in, and he left a note saying if it ever happened again he'd have the car towed away. I can imagine that he's in his rights to call the police to fine me for parking improperly, but can he acxtually hijack the car? Just academic curiosity, as I don't need to go back there anyway.

volcanopete said:

I sometimes wonder if the Tories worry about the nasty pasty tag or whether they relish it.

http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/may/05/jobseekers-zero-hours-contracts

volcanopete said:

I sometimes wonder if the Tories worry about the nasty pasty tag or whether they relish it.

http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/may/05/jobseekers-zero-hours-contracts

JosiasJessop said:

JohnLilburne said:

JosiasJessop said:

Well, for one thing a leader is not a party.

For another, it is easy to be positive about an individual whilst being negative about the majority. I see this sometimes with respect to my good wife, particularly from older people: "Oh, I never think of her as foreign (/an immigrant). She speaks such good English." Indeed, it can be used as an excuse: because they like one or two individuals, it excuses a dislike of the majority.

As an aside, if the ability to come here to live and work from the EU is severely restricted, as is, I believe, UKIP's position, then he will be denying other people the opportunity to marry the EU foreigner they love.

Surely this is a bit of a straw man argument, any sensible immigration policy would include arrangements by which the foreign spouses of British citizens can come and live here.

It's not exactly easy in the UK at the moment, if it's from without the EU.

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/dec/15/uk-immigration-policy-britons-spouses-trauma

As an aside, Mrs J's mother's coming to visit in June/July, and the process to get a visa for her to enter the country to visit family isn't exactly quick, or particularly easy.

NickPalmer said:

JohnLilburne said:

Surely this is a bit of a straw man argument, any sensible immigration policy would include arrangements by which the foreign spouses of British citizens can come and live here.

Not the case at the moment. I have an anguished constituent who is desperate to marry his long-standing girlfriend from the Phillippines, but doesn't earn the £22K that he says is needed to make the Home Office satisfied. He sees no prospect of ever getting her over, and is thinking about emigrating to join her. He would be happy to provide years' worth of evidence that the relationship is genuine.

No YG tonight because of the Bank Holiday?

By the way, O/T - what is the law if you park overlapping someone's drive entrance? I did so tonight, after checking that there was plenty of room to get in, and he left a note saying if it ever happened again he'd have the car towed away. I can imagine that he's in his rights to call the police to fine me for parking improperly, but can he acxtually hijack the car? Just academic curiosity, as I don't need to go back there anyway.

AndyJS said:

"EU membership has not given the UK any "insider advantages" in trade with other European countries, a report by social policy think tank Civitas says.

It says trade with fellow EU nations makes up no more of the UK's trade with all top economies now than it did when it first joined the EEC in 1973.

The benefit of collectively negotiated EU free trade deals is also questioned."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-27284489

isam said:

Quincel said:

I'm not convinced Pulis is a shoe-in for manager of the year. Fellow managers can't speak highly enough of Rodgers in public, press conferences have been slightly full of it to be honest. Plus the Pulis vote might be split by Poyet, who took a team in even more trouble than Palace to safety too. Betvictor are offering 5/1 on Rodgers, and I reckon that's value.

Surely the value is 5/1 Pellegrini? Looks like he is going to win title in first season

Tim_B said:

I can now prove one of my long held theories - all Mexican food tastes exactly the same: only the way it's folded is different.!

Stark_Dawning said:

TOPPING said:

But the leaflet is ugly and Farage's gob on the back of it associates him with this ugliness. It harks back to the worst days of the NF and BNP and as such will alienate many people; those it attracts well, let's just say that they and I would not be comfortable conversational partners.

If I were UKIP I would pretty quickly include a few things about jobs, health, defence, and tone down the anti-foreigner, anti-immigrant rhetoric or the whole thing could backfire. Go the NOTA route fine, sweep up votes there, but looking at this thing sympathy evaporates quickly.

I wonder if UKIP will rue the day that they went hard with the xenophobic stuff. They were doing fine as it was as the party of the anti-EU intellectual case. Such is their zeal to mop up all things vaguely un-Cameron that all sorts of darkness is now getting thrown in the mix. I was scornful at first of the far-Left's diagnostic, but to my horror they might be right. UKIP are starting to look a little strange.

Tim_B said:

I've ony been to Mexico a few times, but my impression is that Mexicans don't eat US syle Mexican food, and I assume that the Chinese don't eat US style Chinese food either.

foxinsoxuk said:

The easiest way around the rules is for him to take up residence in another EU country, bring her over and establish either legal marriage there or long term cohabitation. I understand that after three months they can come to the UK as EU residents.

Ninoinoz said:

NickPalmer said:

Not the case at the moment. I have an anguished constituent who is desperate to marry his long-standing girlfriend from the Phillippines

No you don't, you're not an MP.

Tim_B said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Tim_B said:

I can now prove one of my long held theories - all Mexican food tastes exactly the same: only the way it's folded is different.!

That is certainly my experience, but, to be fair to Mexico, my experience is based entirely on Mexican restaurants in the US, so maybe the real thing is different.

I learnt long ago a simple rule which works very well when anyone suggests Mexican: Just Say No.

I've ony been to Mexico a few times, but my impression is that Mexicans don't eat US syle Mexican food, and I assume that the Chinese don't eat US style Chinese food either.

For their sake I hope they don't eat UK style Chinese food either.