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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Concern about ballot form confusion could be behind falling off of Ukip in most EP seats Betfair markets
Ukip most seats at Euros price easing from a 72% chance to a 54% on Betfair. pic.twitter.com/JYYSXpBJPE
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Edit. Gosh a first, first one in ages.
Edit edit. Hullo? Anyone there?
You are probably right about the photos (something which really should be made illegal) but pretending to be a member of the public when you are a full time staffer is not very smart. Especially when your looks are so, eh, memorable.
Well, the pace of electioneering has quickened on this fine Bank Holiday in lowland East London. First, this morning I had the pleasure of meeting the Labour team as I was putting the recycling out. Two of the current Councillors are standing again and I know them both reasonably so we had a pleasant chat.
This afternoon the Lib Dems came to call - very nice lady and of course happy to talk to a party member (probably doesn't happen that often).
Labour will likely win every seat again in Newham though it will be fascinating to see how the Christian People's Alliance (CPA) - our version of UKIP if you like - fare as they are contesting every seat with almost a full slate while both the LDs and UKIP are only putting up odd candidates (as are TUSC) around the Borough.
Labour and the Conservatives are of course running full slates - no Respect or BNP candidates this time. The best Tory hopes are in Royal Docks where they've come close in by-elections.
Apropos Fitalass comment on the previous thread about division within Scotland - I'd always assumed that the rancour and vituperation we see on here was a function of i) the sites focus on, and interest in, politics and ii) the opinions being offered from across the Union, not just from within Scotland.
I was therefore disheartened to see almost exactly the same types of post on a random page I stumbled upon in my former local paper - debating whether Yes Scotland should distribute leaflets on the Farmer's market day in Cupar:
http://www.thecourier.co.uk/news/politics/yes-scotland-campaigners-accused-of-spoiling-cupar-farmers-market-with-in-your-face-presence-1.345915
Which party has the highest proportion of female/BAME MP's?
I wouldn't be surprised if it were people meaning to back most votes and getting had over
Paddy Power have both Labour and UKIP at under or over 23.5 5/6, so Labour must be the value bet at odds against?
Most people won't have a clue what the UKIP logo is.
Confusion could easily cost UKIP approx 2% - ie enough to mean 27% becomes 25%.
The other point is that polls do suggest the UKIP bounce may now be starting to fade - not a lot but it does appear they are losing a bit of momentum.
It could be that all the "fruitcake" stories are starting to sow a few seeds of doubt in potential voters - and if momentum has changed then it could keep running.
But that is not the point.
Can't your activists leave the people in peace, just for one afternoon? Bores.
http://blogs.channel4.com/snowblog/visceral-hatred-westminister-politics/23805
You can't simply state some of the electorate are disengaged and dim (true) and therefore randomly pick which parties will be hurt by this. The so called faux UKIP just does not look anything like UKIP on the ballot paper.
Cybernats clearly feel, with some justification, that the majority of the media is against them. Unfortunately the non sequitur is that this seems to justify in their minds almost any level of abuse in "retaliation". A lot of people are getting increasingly worried about what sort of a country they would end up living in. Most were already voting no anyway but there is a tipping point for some.
I'm sure you'd wish to take the opportunity to condemn this kind of thing (asterisks inserted by me), a selection from the last couple of days:
Chris Ibrox Kerr @1872chriskerr · 5h
@Richiethefifer salmond is a fud n I'm voting naw
Don Stuart @don_stuart · 6h
@YouYesYet I'm voting UKIP on 22nd. Come and chase me out of Scotland you Fascist C***.
Fusel Jeremiad @diskgrinder · 13h
In Scotland, thistles count as flowers, and a cup of tea probably has knives in it. Vote yes and f*** off Scotland
Stephen McCabe @kilmacolm1 · 22h
@newsundayherald @GerryBraiden Ever thought the editor's head is up his own *rse Gerry?
CanYouFeelMyFarts? @fuckamuck · May 3
"King Salmond" f*** off you f***ing w**ker.
joanne henry @JoanHenry7 · May 3
@Tahir_Mohammed Yes of course you're Scottish mate, you'll be the Inverness Mohammed clan then? #VoteNo @iclare1
UKIP is even written on the ballot paper as "UK Independence Party (UKIP)"
So they both have "Independence" in their name - and both in exactly the same place - ie the second word after a two letter opening word.
That looks a bit more similar to me than "Labour" and "Green".
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-27284489
No UK trade benefit from EU membership - Civitas report
Oh, sorry, of course you didn't mean it was JUST Cybernats using any level of abuse in "retaliation".
'Cybernats clearly feel, with some justification, that the majority of the media is against them. Unfortunately the non sequitur is that this seems to justify in their minds almost any level of abuse in "retaliation". A lot of people are getting increasingly worried about what sort of a country they would end up living in. Most were already voting no anyway but there is a tipping point for some.'
They have also dropped with the same pollster - they were 31 with YouGov last Sunday - yesterday YouGov had them on 29 in two different polls.
Not a large drop - arguably MOE - though it is two polls - but at a minimum it does indicate upward momentum has stopped and potentially starting to edge downwards.
James got banned for ignoring site rules
Oldnat just got bored but occasionally pops in
JPJ2 had a hissy fit and left
Mick repetitive posts so gets mistaken for spam
Stuart left and came back again
I'm failing to see the abuse there malc.
https://twitter.com/BritNatAbuseBot
However: the AIFE party is different from UKIP. *Some* of their votes will be genuine, although from looking at their website, it is hard to discern what they're so different. There seems to be less concentration on immigration, and more against HS2 and anti-rail. Both of which could be seen as UKIP positions. I'm not sure that nationalisation of the M6 toll would be, though.
http://www.aipmep.org/
Personally, their website seems 'freindlier' in terms of usability that UKIP's, to me at least.
When was the last time you engaged with an argument, rather than abused its proponent?
And that is not a website but a collection of tweets that someone has allegedly put together. Something else Cameron was right about.
I am damn sure you have good points you can make and ways of expressing them that do not resort to foul mouthed insult.It would serve you much better than the continuous stream of bile you are posting at the moment.
James was banned because he believed he was bigger than OGH site rules.....
I note you have not said where in Scotland you are living, after your last snide remark.
Always quick to sneer and smear , but you should follow your own guidance a la Cameron and butt out when you are not involved.
Redcliffe to the best of my knowledge still posts but certainly nowhere near as much as previously. I haven't seen anything saying he's given up, but maybe I missed it.
Post one of you engaging with an argument about the merits of Scottish independence from this thread.
Thank you for your energetic reinforcement of my point.
Much as I like you guys, getting email copies of everyone of your posts is not helpful...
Hard to see how you try and associate it with yourself though.
On DevoMax, I hope the UK parties say 'we'll put it in our manifestos for 2015 and you can vote on that' (because it involves all of the UK) to let things cool down a bit...
If its 'Indy' then "If it were done when ’tis done, then ’twere well It were done quickly.
Scotland on her way by May 2015, with a few loose ends to tie up, and rUK to sort out her own future....
The list follows a pattern of the party name followed by a strap line and the first entry has almost the Ukip party name as the strap line. Someone reading from the top down may not see the pattern: party name first, strap line second, until after they put their cross.
Is that fightable / worth it? The publicity from a fight might reduce the number of people who make the mistake while making it look like the political class is trying to rig the vote.
My view is this will cost UKIP some votes. It's as much the distance between Natrass and UKIP on the ballot paper. The Alpha and Omega. Also if they really are turning out long term non voters how many have encountered a PR ballot paper ?
But that many ?UKIP is now a recognisable enough brand for Travel Lodge to sucessfully skit.
All I am saying is that there are plenty of philosophical and practical reasons why someone should want an independent Scotland and throwing around insults is not likely to change any minds nor make the debate (or this site) any more welcoming.
Also, I was interested by the BNP strapline: "Fighting Unsustainable Housing Because We Care". Is this a new approach by the BNP?