I did my usual walk to the reservoir with the dogs today, for the last 6 months I would normally see 2-3 people there, but today there were about 150. I've never seen it even 25% as crowded.
Grannies, parents and kids all going out together and mixing with other families, taking up the whole width of the path, so social distancing was impossible for anyone walking the other way. Also saw an ice cream van operating.
No one here is bothering to try to avoid getting the virus, so we're all going to have to be locked down thanks to these idiots.
Darwin Award winners only harm themselves (or their reproductive capacity).
The problem with the dopey sods congregating is that they're making the pandemic worse, particularly for those in risk categories (the elderly, those with underlying health conditions etc).
More evidence that the virus is much more contagious and much less dangerous than assumed.
% infected x fatality rate = deaths Deaths are known so if %infected is higher, then fatality rate is lower.
This is delusional wishful thinking, I'm afraid. Death is a lagging indicator, so if the virus is spreading very fast, it just means there are a lot of people walking around who are contagious, and some of them are themselves doomed.
More evidence that the virus is much more contagious and much less dangerous than assumed.
% infected x fatality rate = deaths Deaths are known so if %infected is higher, then fatality rate is lower.
This is delusional wishful thinking, I'm afraid. Death is a lagging indicator, so if the virus is spreading very fast, it just means there are a lot of people walking around who are contagious, and some of them are themselves doomed.
Death is a lagging indicator of about than two weeks from infection and one week from symptoms in the rare cases that death results.
If 10% of the polulation is already infected (most with no symptoms) and it rises to 50% that means five times more deaths , plus two weeks lag (at a doubling every 5 days) giving another multiple of 4 i.e. 20 times the current numer of deaths. 20 x 250 deaths is 5,000. About average for seasonal flu.
"The mean time from onset to death is 20 (17–24) days, with a standard deviation of 10 (7–14) days."
but you say, without authority, one week. You have also selfishly endangered lives by going to Italy to ski because Covid death numbers are trivial compared to Italian road deaths (current score road deaths 3300 annually Covid 4850 in 6 weeks). It is not my job to stop you being an arse on the internet, but please leave the statistics alone because you aren't very good at either stating or interpreting them. You have done enough damage, surely?
My Dad is on day 16 in HDU. I would rather not have believed 7 days, if only momentarily.
Can any of the folks with medical experience tell me something. Is it impossible to develop an innoculation for Coronavirus? To give someone a small enough dose of Coronavirus to trigger the right immune response without giving them a full blown attack? Or once you've given it to someone have you just given it to someone.
Viruses are pretty small to begin with. What small dose do you have in mind? Inoculation doesn’t work that way.
Yes, I know they multiply, hence my question. At the same time, you can get a greater or lesser viral load as far as I am aware.
More evidence that the virus is much more contagious and much less dangerous than assumed.
% infected x fatality rate = deaths Deaths are known so if %infected is higher, then fatality rate is lower.
This is delusional wishful thinking, I'm afraid. Death is a lagging indicator, so if the virus is spreading very fast, it just means there are a lot of people walking around who are contagious, and some of them are themselves doomed.
More evidence that the virus is much more contagious and much less dangerous than assumed.
% infected x fatality rate = deaths Deaths are known so if %infected is higher, then fatality rate is lower.
This is delusional wishful thinking, I'm afraid. Death is a lagging indicator, so if the virus is spreading very fast, it just means there are a lot of people walking around who are contagious, and some of them are themselves doomed.
Death is a lagging indicator of about than two weeks from infection and one week from symptoms in the rare cases that death results.
If 10% of the polulation is already infected (most with no symptoms) and it rises to 50% that means five times more deaths , plus two weeks lag (at a doubling every 5 days) giving another multiple of 4 i.e. 20 times the current numer of deaths. 20 x 250 deaths is 5,000. About average for seasonal flu.
"The mean time from onset to death is 20 (17–24) days, with a standard deviation of 10 (7–14) days."
but you say, without authority, one week. You have also selfishly endangered lives by going to Italy to ski because Covid death numbers are trivial compared to Italian road deaths (current score road deaths 3300 annually Covid 4850 in 6 weeks). It is not my job to stop you being an arse on the internet, but please leave the statistics alone because you aren't very good at either stating or interpreting them. You have done enough damage, surely?
I used 14 days in my calculation. Table 7 in the link you gave indicates 17 days.
I was safer in South Tyrol than in London and i self-isolated for 14 days.
Italy averages 15,000 deaths annually from seasonal flu compared with 4840 from Covid-19 in six weeks.
And the plane and airport and travel to and from? Oh let me guess as a lib dem you walked on water and walked home alone.
Silly
It's a legitimate point. You could have been an asymptomatic carrier unnecessarily putting others at risk.
It was the walking on water that was silly.
I could have been an asymptomatic carrier in London. I went on the tube about four weeks ago. A bigger risk than skiing in Southern Tyrol (which is not Lombardy and had a negligible number of cases) However I have been self-isolating for two weeks.
Sorry to be a pain, but Jenrick said a document is already online, but I can’t find it. Trying to see if family members need to stay home. Has anyone found it?
Sorry to be a pain, but Jenrick said a document is already online, but I can’t find it. Trying to see if family members need to stay home. Has anyone found it?
He said it would be online by the time the letters hit the doormats.
Boris, like most politicians, wants to be liked and popular [snip] As a result, he holds back from the necessary but really unpopular actions such as restricting movement, closing parks and the like.
Or maybe he is genuinely a classical liberal and so holds back from authoritarianism if not absolutely needed.
I do get the impression that some people rather like the firm hand of the state.
This was the line being peddled in the Daily Mail which would like to support Boris as he's a Conservative PM who has won a GE but they struggle with some aspects of him.
Boris is or would be a reasonable PM in good times but I don't think crisis plays to his strengths - his jocular nature doesn't work well when a more sombre tone is needed - Theresa May would have been so better at this.
As for "holding back from authoritarianism", my recollection of Boris during the 2011 riots doesn't tally with that view at all. He wanted the Police to go in hard and of course bought some vehicles with water cannon and we all know how well that ended.
Briefly unlurking to reflect that it seems quite probable to me that if harshest measures were ordered to begin with there would be little compliance and no ability to truly enforce, and therefore counter-intuitively there is a need to transition in to harsher measures so people get used to increasing demands. So it's not how well does a phased approach work vs a hypothetical perfect harsh total approach implemented in one go, but a phased approach vs a likely imperfect harsh total approach.
That is just a feeling, I would bow before behavioural scientists in that respect, but given how plenty respond to a not unreasonable request to keep distance while outside, I can only imagine how people would respond to a demand to remain literally inside the house if there was not a lead in of escalating seriousness.
Sorry to be a pain, but Jenrick said a document is already online, but I can’t find it. Trying to see if family members need to stay home. Has anyone found it?
He said it would be online by the time the letters hit the doormats.
I did my usual walk to the reservoir with the dogs today, for the last 6 months I would normally see 2-3 people there, but today there were about 150. I've never seen it even 25% as crowded.
Grannies, parents and kids all going out together and mixing with other families, taking up the whole width of the path, so social distancing was impossible for anyone walking the other way. Also saw an ice cream van operating.
No one here is bothering to try to avoid getting the virus, so we're all going to have to be locked down thanks to these idiots.
It’s a Sunday, most people are normally at home. They must fear an imminent lockdown if walks in the countryside have suddenly become so attractive. Either that, or more people have read that CDC advice about exercise and sunshine than I would have imagined.
Can any of the folks with medical experience tell me something. Is it impossible to develop an innoculation for Coronavirus? To give someone a small enough dose of Coronavirus to trigger the right immune response without giving them a full blown attack? Or once you've given it to someone have you just given it to someone.
Viruses are pretty small to begin with. What small dose do you have in mind? Inoculation doesn’t work that way.
Yes, I know they multiply, hence my question. At the same time, you can get a greater or lesser viral load as far as I am aware.
While there is some evidence that a lower viral exposure gives your immune system better odds of fighting off the virus, basically no. It would be way too hazardous.
The clown in Downing Street is causing unnecessary infections
You do know that Nicola is part of Cobra policy making along with the Welsh and Northern Ireland First Ministers. She is expressing the Cobra position headed by Boris
Your hatred of Boris shows no bounds
One doesn't have to hate him to think that he should have pursued a career as a chat-show host, stand-up comedian and journalist, not politician. If the Tory party wanted a serious PM who could also do show-biz, why didn't it try Gyles Brandreth?
I think PB has an unhealthy proportionof authoritarians ("Do as you are told FFS") and hysterics ("It's the end of the world as we know it").
This will turn out to be serious case of seasonal flu (20K dead in UK) with a massive overaction that causes more harm than the disease.
Cue for authoritarians and hysterics to do their thing....
I am the last person to be authoritarian without due cause....sorry I dont think skiing in italy was essential
It didn't have to be essential. It was certainly safer than staying in London. 3 cases in South Tyrol. About 200 in London at the time. I skied alone and stayed in an almost deserted hotel. I wasn't travelling by tube or joining the throng in Barnes farmers market. In spite of being safer, I took the precaution of self isolating for 14 days.
I wonder who else went there, and then went back to their own cities. Wasn't this how this first spread, by people returning from skiing trips?
No it wasn't. Fake news. The hot spots in Italy were not in skiing resorts. There was an early isolated case of a chalet in France.
I though the UK's first super spreader came back on holiday from a skiing trip?
That's the chalet party in France I referred to. One of the party had been to China IIFC. It wasn't the skiing that infected them.
Singapore. It was the chalet environment - close proximity - that infected them.
Yes Chalets can be quite intimate. I stayed in a single room in a large semi-deserted hotel.
I did my usual walk to the reservoir with the dogs today, for the last 6 months I would normally see 2-3 people there, but today there were about 150. I've never seen it even 25% as crowded.
Grannies, parents and kids all going out together and mixing with other families, taking up the whole width of the path, so social distancing was impossible for anyone walking the other way. Also saw an ice cream van operating.
No one here is bothering to try to avoid getting the virus, so we're all going to have to be locked down thanks to these idiots.
It’s a Sunday, most people are normally at home. They must fear an imminent lockdown if walks in the countryside have suddenly become so attractive. Either that, or more people have read that CDC advice about exercise and sunshine than I would have imagined.
Its Mothers Day. Most people are normally out.
Here at least it is the first sunny warm Spring day of the year. Most people are normally out.
Pubs, restaurants, cinemas etc are closed so where else are people meant to go?
Jenrick says first food parcels will arrive at the end of next week, will meet dietary and medical requirements if generic
I could be wrong because I was only half listening but I thought he said because they were going to be generic, initially they wouldn't meet special dietary requirements.
I think PB has an unhealthy proportionof authoritarians ("Do as you are told FFS") and hysterics ("It's the end of the world as we know it").
This will turn out to be serious case of seasonal flu (20K dead in UK) with a massive overaction that causes more harm than the disease.
Cue for authoritarians and hysterics to do their thing....
I am the last person to be authoritarian without due cause....sorry I dont think skiing in italy was essential
It didn't have to be essential. It was certainly safer than staying in London. 3 cases in South Tyrol. About 200 in London at the time. I skied alone and stayed in an almost deserted hotel. I wasn't travelling by tube or joining the throng in Barnes farmers market. In spite of being safer, I took the precaution of self isolating for 14 days.
I wonder who else went there, and then went back to their own cities. Wasn't this how this first spread, by people returning from skiing trips?
No it wasn't. Fake news. The hot spots in Italy were not in skiing resorts. There was an early isolated case of a chalet in France.
I though the UK's first super spreader came back on holiday from a skiing trip?
That's the chalet party in France I referred to. One of the party had been to China IIFC. It wasn't the skiing that infected them.
Singapore. It was the chalet environment - close proximity - that infected them*.
I think PB has an unhealthy proportionof authoritarians ("Do as you are told FFS") and hysterics ("It's the end of the world as we know it").
This will turn out to be serious case of seasonal flu (20K dead in UK) with a massive overaction that causes more harm than the disease.
Cue for authoritarians and hysterics to do their thing....
I really, really don't think the situations in Hubei and Italy can be described as "serious cases of seasonal flu". There have been no convincing arguments that we will avoid going down the same route here.
Let’s see what happens in China now restrictions are being relaxed. If it comes back (other than through reimportation from abroad) then you have a point. If it doesn’t then Barnsean may be right.
That is key. It is possible that China is not seeing more cases because it is saturated. 50-60% already have had it. That's one explanation. If it comes back big time then my hypothesis is incorrect.
This is incorrect. The Chinese policy was precisely to ensure almost noone outside of Hubei got the virus.
But many people outside Hubei did get it.
How do you think the rest of China managed to reach saturation without large numbers of vulnerable people in the rest of China dying?
So, from Lombardy and Veneto, the heart of Italy's CV-19 crisis:
New cases in Lombardy increased by 1,691 today against 3,251 yesterday and 2,380 the day before.
New cases in Veneto increased by 505 today against 586 and 549.
So, encouraging from both regions. (Although the Lombardy drop looks suspciously large.)
Perhaps the most encouraging number in all the figures out of Italy was the percentage positive, which at 22% is the lowest for some time.
That's a 2,441 average so roughly the same as it was 2 days ago. Seems just from that data that yesterday a bump up which has averaged out with a bump down today causing a large jump between the two but no meaningful change.
I did my usual walk to the reservoir with the dogs today, for the last 6 months I would normally see 2-3 people there, but today there were about 150. I've never seen it even 25% as crowded.
Grannies, parents and kids all going out together and mixing with other families, taking up the whole width of the path, so social distancing was impossible for anyone walking the other way. Also saw an ice cream van operating.
No one here is bothering to try to avoid getting the virus, so we're all going to have to be locked down thanks to these idiots.
It’s a Sunday, most people are normally at home. They must fear an imminent lockdown if walks in the countryside have suddenly become so attractive. Either that, or more people have read that CDC advice about exercise and sunshine than I would have imagined.
Its Mothers Day. Most people are normally out.
Here at least it is the first sunny warm Spring day of the year. Most people are normally out.
Pubs, restaurants, cinemas etc are closed so where else are people meant to go?
Let us get this straight. Boris is part of a wide expert led group with cross party backing all channelled through Cobra
There is too much concentration by those who dislike Boris trying to make political capital when in truth this is far more complex than so many keyboard warriors can remotely understand
Boris will have to answer for his actions in due course but right now we need to condemn the selfish and irresponsible
Can any of the folks with medical experience tell me something. Is it impossible to develop an innoculation for Coronavirus? To give someone a small enough dose of Coronavirus to trigger the right immune response without giving them a full blown attack? Or once you've given it to someone have you just given it to someone.
Viruses are pretty small to begin with. What small dose do you have in mind? Inoculation doesn’t work that way.
Yes, I know they multiply, hence my question. At the same time, you can get a greater or lesser viral load as far as I am aware.
While there is some evidence that a lower viral exposure gives your immune system better odds of fighting off the virus, basically no. It would be way too hazardous.
Which require a lengthy development process like other vaccines.
Thanks, that's really interesting info.
My question stems from the old meaning of inoculation, which in the West was when they started administering small bits of smallpox puss to peoples' skin, which stimulated an immune response but didn't give people the full blown disease.
Let us get this straight. Boris is part of a wide expert led group with cross party backing all channelled through Cobra
There is too much concentration by those who dislike Boris trying to make political capital when in truth this is far more complex than so many keyboard warriors can remotely understand
Boris will have to answer for his actions in due course but right now we need to condemn the selfish and irresponsible
Or maybe Boris is making mistakes and some of us are a bit nervous and would like him to change.
His comms are helping to create perverse incentives.
I did my usual walk to the reservoir with the dogs today, for the last 6 months I would normally see 2-3 people there, but today there were about 150. I've never seen it even 25% as crowded.
Grannies, parents and kids all going out together and mixing with other families, taking up the whole width of the path, so social distancing was impossible for anyone walking the other way. Also saw an ice cream van operating.
No one here is bothering to try to avoid getting the virus, so we're all going to have to be locked down thanks to these idiots.
It’s a Sunday, most people are normally at home. They must fear an imminent lockdown if walks in the countryside have suddenly become so attractive. Either that, or more people have read that CDC advice about exercise and sunshine than I would have imagined.
Its Mothers Day. Most people are normally out.
Here at least it is the first sunny warm Spring day of the year. Most people are normally out.
Pubs, restaurants, cinemas etc are closed so where else are people meant to go?
Nowhere
It was a rhetorical question. My wife, children and I have cancelled our Mothers Day plans and stayed home today. Its my daughters birthday next week, we've cancelled her birthday party and told relatives we'll see them on video and they can either hold on to presents or post them.
But people who don't care and want to go out are going to parks because its where they can go not a sudden desire for the countryside. If the parks close many people will still go out somewhere else instead. That is one danger of closing down things is it funnels people into fewer and fewer venues if they're too stubborn and stupid not to just stay at home.
Jenrick says first food parcels will arrive at the end of next week, will meet dietary and medical requirements if generic
I could be wrong because I was only half listening but I thought he said because they were going to be generic, initially they wouldn't meet special dietary requirements.
No they would be generic in content they would meet dietary requirements though straight away is what I heard
Let us get this straight. Boris is part of a wide expert led group with cross party backing all channelled through Cobra
There is too much concentration by those who dislike Boris trying to make political capital when in truth this is far more complex than so many keyboard warriors can remotely understand
Boris will have to answer for his actions in due course but right now we need to condemn the selfish and irresponsible
Or maybe Boris is making mistakes and some of us are a bit nervous and would like him to change.
His comms are helping to create perverse incentives.
His comms have been to be honest and to signpost what is coming since this began.
Let us get this straight. Boris is part of a wide expert led group with cross party backing all channelled through Cobra
There is too much concentration by those who dislike Boris trying to make political capital when in truth this is far more complex than so many keyboard warriors can remotely understand
Boris will have to answer for his actions in due course but right now we need to condemn the selfish and irresponsible
Or maybe Boris is making mistakes and some of us are a bit nervous and would like him to change.
His comms are helping to create perverse incentives.
His comms have been to be honest and to signpost what is coming since this began.
But that is encouraging people to go out and make hay whilst the sun chimes.
Scientist by Boris says virus does not last well outside so better to be outside than inside for your physical and mental health in some respects provided you are not congregating and are social distancing
I think PB has an unhealthy proportionof authoritarians ("Do as you are told FFS") and hysterics ("It's the end of the world as we know it").
This will turn out to be serious case of seasonal flu (20K dead in UK) with a massive overaction that causes more harm than the disease.
Cue for authoritarians and hysterics to do their thing....
I really, really don't think the situations in Hubei and Italy can be described as "serious cases of seasonal flu". There have been no convincing arguments that we will avoid going down the same route here.
Let’s see what happens in China now restrictions are being relaxed. If it comes back (other than through reimportation from abroad) then you have a point. If it doesn’t then Barnsean may be right.
That is key. It is possible that China is not seeing more cases because it is saturated. 50-60% already have had it. That's one explanation. If it comes back big time then my hypothesis is incorrect.
This is incorrect. The Chinese policy was precisely to ensure almost noone outside of Hubei got the virus.
But many people outside Hubei did get it.
3133/3254 deaths and 68 000/81 000 recorded cases were in Hubei. That means 120 deaths in China outwith Hubei or about one sixtieth of our death rate, and unlike us not increasing. Even if we accept a degree of "under-reporting" in China, the trend is definitely better.
So, from Lombardy and Veneto, the heart of Italy's CV-19 crisis:
New cases in Lombardy increased by 1,691 today against 3,251 yesterday and 2,380 the day before.
New cases in Veneto increased by 505 today against 586 and 549.
So, encouraging from both regions. (Although the Lombardy drop looks suspciously large.)
Perhaps the most encouraging number in all the figures out of Italy was the percentage positive, which at 22% is the lowest for some time.
That's a 2,441 average so roughly the same as it was 2 days ago. Seems just from that data that yesterday a bump up which has averaged out with a bump down today causing a large jump between the two but no meaningful change.
That's a fair point.
However, you also need to look at these numbers in the context of the proportion of tests that are positive. Simply: are downward changes due to fewer tests being adminstered? Or are upward changes due to more being adminsitered.
In Italy, the proportion of positive tests peaked six days ago at 33%. Two days ago it was 25%. It's now 22%. This suggests that there was previously undertesting.
While there will be volatility, I would expect that the Lombardy and Veneto new cases numbers will not exceed the peaks set yesterday going forward. And I suspect that Italy as a whole will probably peak early this week - say Monday or Tuesday.
One advantage for us and the NHS is that we have had some warning. Some time to prepare. It might be a critical difference between us and say Italy.
Worryingly there's no indication of our government using that time effectively to prepare. Italy has a good healthcare system, did plenty of testing etc. I'm not seeing what we're doing different that gives us confidence that we will avoid Italy's fate. Despite Cummings* previous bragging that Italy wasn't the example he was following.
* "Downing Street source"
Isnt this incorrect. The NHS has stopped elective surgury and is repurposing wards, training people bringing back the recently retired and trying to source tens of thousands of ventilators. Not sure this is failing to use time effectively?
Let us get this straight. Boris is part of a wide expert led group with cross party backing all channelled through Cobra
There is too much concentration by those who dislike Boris trying to make political capital when in truth this is far more complex than so many keyboard warriors can remotely understand
Boris will have to answer for his actions in due course but right now we need to condemn the selfish and irresponsible
Or maybe Boris is making mistakes and some of us are a bit nervous and would like him to change.
His comms are helping to create perverse incentives.
His comms have been to be honest and to signpost what is coming since this began.
But that is encouraging people to go out and make hay whilst the sun chimes.
An irresponsible minority. It also encourages the responsible majority to make sensible precautions rather than a sudden panic at once leading to everyone doing the same thing.
David Spiegelhalter (Professor of the Public Understanding of Risk at Cambridge) is always good at his job, here's his take on COVID-19. Apologies if you've seen it before. Worth looking at the website to see the graph. His point is that whatever your risk of dying is in a year (which varies based on age) is pretty close to your risk of dying if you catch COVID-19.
So, roughly speaking, we might say that getting COVID-19 is like packing a year’s worth of risk into a week or two. Which is why it’s important to spread out the infections to avoid the NHS being overwhelmed.
It’s important to note that all the risks quoted are the average (mean) risks for people of the relevant age, but are not the risks of the average person! This is because, both for COVID and in normal circumstances, much of the risk is held by people whom are already chronically ill. So for the large majority of healthy people, their risks of either dying from COVID, or dying of something else, are much lower than those quoted here. Although of course for every death there will be others who are seriously ill.
Also, as Triggle points out, there will be substantial overlap in these two groups — many people who die of COVID would have died anyway within a short period — and so these risks cannot be simply added, and it does not simply double the risk of people who get infected. It is crucially important that the NHS is not overwhelmed, but if COVID deaths can be kept in the order of say 20,000 by stringent suppression measures, as is now being suggested, there may end up being a minimal impact on overall mortality for 2020 (although background mortality could increase due to pressures on the health services and the side-effects of isolation). Although, as we are seeing, at vast cost.
Let us get this straight. Boris is part of a wide expert led group with cross party backing all channelled through Cobra
There is too much concentration by those who dislike Boris trying to make political capital when in truth this is far more complex than so many keyboard warriors can remotely understand
Boris will have to answer for his actions in due course but right now we need to condemn the selfish and irresponsible
I wasn't aware the facility to hold the elected Govenrment to account and to scrutiny had been suspended. Those who are unquestioningly supportive of the Prime Minister seem to feel they have to come on and counter every negative comment.
I'm not sure why.
People have a right to ask questions and I hope in the fullness of time there will be a public account of what happened and the bases on which certain decisions were taken. I'd expect the Prime Minister to appear before such a forum to explain his policy decisions.
Let us get this straight. Boris is part of a wide expert led group with cross party backing all channelled through Cobra
There is too much concentration by those who dislike Boris trying to make political capital when in truth this is far more complex than so many keyboard warriors can remotely understand
Boris will have to answer for his actions in due course but right now we need to condemn the selfish and irresponsible
Or maybe Boris is making mistakes and some of us are a bit nervous and would like him to change.
His comms are helping to create perverse incentives.
He and others may be making mistakes but that is inevitable in a crisis of this nature
He and the rest of his advisors need to be given space
Let us get this straight. Boris is part of a wide expert led group with cross party backing all channelled through Cobra
There is too much concentration by those who dislike Boris trying to make political capital when in truth this is far more complex than so many keyboard warriors can remotely understand
Boris will have to answer for his actions in due course but right now we need to condemn the selfish and irresponsible
Or maybe Boris is making mistakes and some of us are a bit nervous and would like him to change.
His comms are helping to create perverse incentives.
His comms have been to be honest and to signpost what is coming since this began.
That does not necessarily speak to competent delivery of those communications, but I must say that while there clearly could have been improvements to that effect, I do think the fact that unfortunate numbers of people are ignoring some advice, or willfully misinterpreting it (the 'people see this as the last opportunity to go to the pub' argument speaks to people ignoring a message not the message being poor) also does not speak to the competent delivery or not of those communications as much as people say it does.
The messaging could at times have been clearer.. But it has also been perfectly clear at times and people have still not listened, and even perfect communications would not entirely eliminate people acting contrarily.
That does not mean there may not be personal and political consequences for Boris or the government generally regarding the nature of their response to and efforts regarding this crisis and errors or failed measures undertaken during it, but I do struggle with casting blame regarding some pretty clear communications which have been ignored by some, as the sort who do that will not all be swayed by a slightly harder tone.
Let us get this straight. Boris is part of a wide expert led group with cross party backing all channelled through Cobra
There is too much concentration by those who dislike Boris trying to make political capital when in truth this is far more complex than so many keyboard warriors can remotely understand
Boris will have to answer for his actions in due course but right now we need to condemn the selfish and irresponsible
Or maybe Boris is making mistakes and some of us are a bit nervous and would like him to change.
His comms are helping to create perverse incentives.
His comms have been to be honest and to signpost what is coming since this began.
But that is encouraging people to go out and make hay whilst the sun chimes.
An irresponsible minority. It also encourages the responsible majority to make sensible precautions rather than a sudden panic at once leading to everyone doing the same thing.
I am not sure everything is tickety boo, but if you insist.
Let us get this straight. Boris is part of a wide expert led group with cross party backing all channelled through Cobra
There is too much concentration by those who dislike Boris trying to make political capital when in truth this is far more complex than so many keyboard warriors can remotely understand
Boris will have to answer for his actions in due course but right now we need to condemn the selfish and irresponsible
At least the plus is they're now attacking him for 'dreadful comms' rather than setting themselves up as epidemiologists, so we should be thankful for small mercies.
I did my usual walk to the reservoir with the dogs today, for the last 6 months I would normally see 2-3 people there, but today there were about 150. I've never seen it even 25% as crowded.
Grannies, parents and kids all going out together and mixing with other families, taking up the whole width of the path, so social distancing was impossible for anyone walking the other way. Also saw an ice cream van operating.
No one here is bothering to try to avoid getting the virus, so we're all going to have to be locked down thanks to these idiots.
It’s a Sunday, most people are normally at home. They must fear an imminent lockdown if walks in the countryside have suddenly become so attractive. Either that, or more people have read that CDC advice about exercise and sunshine than I would have imagined.
Its Mothers Day. Most people are normally out.
Here at least it is the first sunny warm Spring day of the year. Most people are normally out.
Pubs, restaurants, cinemas etc are closed so where else are people meant to go?
Nowhere
It was a rhetorical question. My wife, children and I have cancelled our Mothers Day plans and stayed home today. Its my daughters birthday next week, we've cancelled her birthday party and told relatives we'll see them on video and they can either hold on to presents or post them.
But people who don't care and want to go out are going to parks because its where they can go not a sudden desire for the countryside. If the parks close many people will still go out somewhere else instead. That is one danger of closing down things is it funnels people into fewer and fewer venues if they're too stubborn and stupid not to just stay at home.
You should try a virtual birthday party, not sure how you do it but it must be possible.
I think this disease isn't quite deadly enough to provoke the required response by the public. It's enough to make people concerned, but not quite enough to make people scared. Too many people are thinking that 1% CFR, and mainly affecting the over 70s, means that they can carry on as normal; and they are not considering what it means if many millions of people are infected. I think we'd probably do better with something deadlier like SARS threatening us.
Let us get this straight. Boris is part of a wide expert led group with cross party backing all channelled through Cobra
There is too much concentration by those who dislike Boris trying to make political capital when in truth this is far more complex than so many keyboard warriors can remotely understand
Boris will have to answer for his actions in due course but right now we need to condemn the selfish and irresponsible
Or maybe Boris is making mistakes and some of us are a bit nervous and would like him to change.
His comms are helping to create perverse incentives.
His comms have been to be honest and to signpost what is coming since this began.
But that is encouraging people to go out and make hay whilst the sun chimes.
An irresponsible minority. It also encourages the responsible majority to make sensible precautions rather than a sudden panic at once leading to everyone doing the same thing.
I am not sure everything is tickety boo, but if you insist.
I never said everything is tickety boo, what I'm saying is positively Newtonian, for every action there's a reaction.
Let us get this straight. Boris is part of a wide expert led group with cross party backing all channelled through Cobra
There is too much concentration by those who dislike Boris trying to make political capital when in truth this is far more complex than so many keyboard warriors can remotely understand
Boris will have to answer for his actions in due course but right now we need to condemn the selfish and irresponsible
Or maybe Boris is making mistakes and some of us are a bit nervous and would like him to change.
His comms are helping to create perverse incentives.
Thing is, I listen to what the government says and if I was going to leave the house I would make sure I was well away from other people and not treating a walk outside as an excuse to socialise with all and sundry and mix around in a crowd.
Unfortunately others just don’t listen. This crisis is showing us that our principal enemy is each other. The panic buying and the packing out the parks today shows that.
I have sympathy with government in these circumstances because what you essentially have is a group of incredibly selfish people spoiling it for everyone else. But I agree that a tougher lockdown is coming because this can’t be sustained. Boris and the government are trying to strike a balance and I don’t think it’s easy (I have tremendous sympathy with governments of all persuasions at the moment).
Scientist by Boris says virus does not last well outside so better to be outside than inside for your physical and mental health in some respects provided you are not congregating and are social distancing
That coincides with the advice the NHS workers told my brother after they told him he had tested positive. No problem being outside - possibly helpful if symptoms are mild - but keep well away from other people.
I think PB has an unhealthy proportionof authoritarians ("Do as you are told FFS") and hysterics ("It's the end of the world as we know it").
This will turn out to be serious case of seasonal flu (20K dead in UK) with a massive overaction that causes more harm than the disease.
Cue for authoritarians and hysterics to do their thing....
I really, really don't think the situations in Hubei and Italy can be described as "serious cases of seasonal flu". There have been no convincing arguments that we will avoid going down the same route here.
Let’s see what happens in China now restrictions are being relaxed. If it comes back (other than through reimportation from abroad) then you have a point. If it doesn’t then Barnsean may be right.
That is key. It is possible that China is not seeing more cases because it is saturated. 50-60% already have had it. That's one explanation. If it comes back big time then my hypothesis is incorrect.
This is incorrect. The Chinese policy was precisely to ensure almost noone outside of Hubei got the virus.
But many people outside Hubei did get it.
3133/3254 deaths and 68 000/81 000 recorded cases were in Hubei. That means 120 deaths in China outwith Hubei or about one sixtieth of our death rate, and unlike us not increasing. Even if we accept a degree of "under-reporting" in China, the trend is definitely better.
It could be pointed out that the idea that there is actually a serious material risk in the context of the overall pandemic from all these people in parks is actually largely speculative. Compared to transmission in hospitals, through close sustained contact indoors, on packed public transport, in supermarket queues etc.
So for all the frustration at people not heeding govt advice the actual impact in reality could actually be limited. And I find it very difficult to believe that if any future lockdown lasts more than a few weeks then it will have to be loosened.
I think this disease isn't quite deadly enough to provoke the required response by the public. It's enough to make people concerned, but not quite enough to make people scared. Too many people are thinking that 1% CFR, and mainly affecting the over 70s, means that they can carry on as normal; and they are not considering what it means if many millions of people are infected. I think we'd probably do better with something deadlier like SARS threatening us.
Most of us have had an operation, and the average death rate during surgery is in the region of 0.6%, or around 2% if you include deaths in the few months immediately after surgery. Anything in the 1-2% range feels like a risk worth taking.
Let us get this straight. Boris is part of a wide expert led group with cross party backing all channelled through Cobra
There is too much concentration by those who dislike Boris trying to make political capital when in truth this is far more complex than so many keyboard warriors can remotely understand
Boris will have to answer for his actions in due course but right now we need to condemn the selfish and irresponsible
I wasn't aware the facility to hold the elected Govenrment to account and to scrutiny had been suspended. Those who are unquestioningly supportive of the Prime Minister seem to feel they have to come on and counter every negative comment.
I'm not sure why.
People have a right to ask questions and I hope in the fullness of time there will be a public account of what happened and the bases on which certain decisions were taken. I'd expect the Prime Minister to appear before such a forum to explain his policy decisions.
I think you are wrong here. I am very far from a fan of this government however it is absolutely not helpful currently second guessing every move and diverting them from getting on top of the problem into the channels of rebutting criticism.
After the crisis yes we call them to account while being aware we are blessed with hindsight and they weren't when making the decisions. A lot of the crap being thrown though is decidely not helping matters get resolved.
Few of us have the in depth information nor the knowledge to make the best interpretation so let us just trust the science bods advising know what they are doing
Italian numbers suggest lockdown starting to bite there. Keep an eye on them though: early days.
That's right. Early days. We won't know for sure if they're working until Weds/Thursday.
However, watch the Lomabardy / Veneto figures closely, as they're three or four days ahead of the curve. If they come down tomorrow and Tuesday, then we can be increasingly confident that the lockdown is working.
Let us get this straight. Boris is part of a wide expert led group with cross party backing all channelled through Cobra
There is too much concentration by those who dislike Boris trying to make political capital when in truth this is far more complex than so many keyboard warriors can remotely understand
Boris will have to answer for his actions in due course but right now we need to condemn the selfish and irresponsible
Or maybe Boris is making mistakes and some of us are a bit nervous and would like him to change.
His comms are helping to create perverse incentives.
His comms have been to be honest and to signpost what is coming since this began.
But that is encouraging people to go out and make hay whilst the sun chimes.
An irresponsible minority. It also encourages the responsible majority to make sensible precautions rather than a sudden panic at once leading to everyone doing the same thing.
I am not sure everything is tickety boo, but if you insist.
Of course everything is not tickety boo and more decisions will be made almost on a daily basis. I think it easy to have a go but if you do not follow the advice then you are in real trouble
I am not trying to be acone person Boris fan club but I am seeking fairness in judging him and others leading this fight. I do not hear attacks on Nicola Sturgeon when she is following the same Cobra policy
How does shopping work under that system? That's my main worry.
I imagine it is dinner parties etc. that they are forbidding as well as preventing young people congregating outside. My understanding from friends in Germany is that the nice weather has meant many young people are meeting up outside for drinks etc. Germany is a couple of days ahead of us, so I suspect we will implement the same in the next day or two.
Note, also, that Germany is not prohibiting people going to work, just requesting they keep further apart. In many ways, they have implemented restrictions that are very similar to the UK I think (perhaps @eristdoof or @kamski could confirm?) It certainly sounds that way and from that article.
It could be pointed out that the idea that there is actually a serious material risk in the context of the overall pandemic from all these people in parks is actually largely speculative. Compared to transmission in hospitals, through close sustained contact indoors, on packed public transport, in supermarket queues etc.
So for all the frustration at people not heeding govt advice the actual impact in reality could actually be limited. And I find it very difficult to believe that if any future lockdown lasts more than a few weeks then it will have to be loosened.
I also wonder what fraction of the populace is actually out and about? If 90% are staying inside, then it's probably sufficient.
I think you are wrong here. I am very far from a fan of this government however it is absolutely not helpful currently second guessing every move and diverting them from getting on top of the problem into the channels of rebutting criticism.
After the crisis yes we call them to account while being aware we are blessed with hindsight and they weren't when making the decisions. A lot of the crap being thrown though is decidely not helping matters get resolved.
Few of us have the in depth information nor the knowledge to make the best interpretation so let us just trust the science bods advising know what they are doing
Fair enough but after this is all over I think an full in-depth enquiry into what decisions were or were not taken and the scientific evidence and bases used to support these decisions doesn't seem unreasonable.
Yes, of course we don't have all the information but even if you do it doesn't guarantee the correct conclusions are drawn and the correct decisions made.
I think you are wrong here. I am very far from a fan of this government however it is absolutely not helpful currently second guessing every move and diverting them from getting on top of the problem into the channels of rebutting criticism.
After the crisis yes we call them to account while being aware we are blessed with hindsight and they weren't when making the decisions. A lot of the crap being thrown though is decidely not helping matters get resolved.
Few of us have the in depth information nor the knowledge to make the best interpretation so let us just trust the science bods advising know what they are doing
Fair enough but after this is all over I think an full in-depth enquiry into what decisions were or were not taken and the scientific evidence and bases used to support these decisions doesn't seem unreasonable.
Yes, of course we don't have all the information but even if you do it doesn't guarantee the correct conclusions are drawn and the correct decisions made.
The first large pandemic in a hundred years? I think it's a fair bet there will be many enquiries about it!
Comments
https://twitter.com/jessbrammar/status/1241779699665317888
https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1241779614797750275
Grannies, parents and kids all going out together and mixing with other families, taking up the whole width of the path, so social distancing was impossible for anyone walking the other way. Also saw an ice cream van operating.
No one here is bothering to try to avoid getting the virus, so we're all going to have to be locked down thanks to these idiots.
Darwin Award winners only harm themselves (or their reproductive capacity).
The problem with the dopey sods congregating is that they're making the pandemic worse, particularly for those in risk categories (the elderly, those with underlying health conditions etc).
https://twitter.com/BBCNormanS/status/1241780286603616263
I hope I survive to see the public inquiry for this shitshow.
I could have been an asymptomatic carrier in London. I went on the tube about four weeks ago. A bigger risk than skiing in Southern Tyrol (which is not Lombardy and had a negligible number of cases) However I have been self-isolating for two weeks.
Again this follows the pattern that decisions are coming through Cobra agreed UK wide
Boris is or would be a reasonable PM in good times but I don't think crisis plays to his strengths - his jocular nature doesn't work well when a more sombre tone is needed - Theresa May would have been so better at this.
As for "holding back from authoritarianism", my recollection of Boris during the 2011 riots doesn't tally with that view at all. He wanted the Police to go in hard and of course bought some vehicles with water cannon and we all know how well that ended.
That is just a feeling, I would bow before behavioural scientists in that respect, but given how plenty respond to a not unreasonable request to keep distance while outside, I can only imagine how people would respond to a demand to remain literally inside the house if there was not a lead in of escalating seriousness.
You might be thinking of attenuated live virus vaccines ?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Attenuated_vaccine
Which require a lengthy development process like other vaccines.
New cases in Lombardy increased by 1,691 today against 3,251 yesterday and 2,380 the day before.
New cases in Veneto increased by 505 today against 586 and 549.
So, encouraging from both regions. (Although the Lombardy drop looks suspciously large.)
Perhaps the most encouraging number in all the figures out of Italy was the percentage positive, which at 22% is the lowest for some time.
It was released less than a month before Christmas in the UK.
Here at least it is the first sunny warm Spring day of the year. Most people are normally out.
Pubs, restaurants, cinemas etc are closed so where else are people meant to go?
https://twitter.com/RandPaul/status/1241780759087677440?s=20
There is too much concentration by those who dislike Boris trying to make political capital when in truth this is far more complex than so many keyboard warriors can remotely understand
Boris will have to answer for his actions in due course but right now we need to condemn the selfish and irresponsible
My question stems from the old meaning of inoculation, which in the West was when they started administering small bits of smallpox puss to peoples' skin, which stimulated an immune response but didn't give people the full blown disease.
His comms are helping to create perverse incentives.
But people who don't care and want to go out are going to parks because its where they can go not a sudden desire for the countryside. If the parks close many people will still go out somewhere else instead. That is one danger of closing down things is it funnels people into fewer and fewer venues if they're too stubborn and stupid not to just stay at home.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1090007/china-confirmed-and-suspected-wuhan-coronavirus-cases-region/
However, you also need to look at these numbers in the context of the proportion of tests that are positive. Simply: are downward changes due to fewer tests being adminstered? Or are upward changes due to more being adminsitered.
In Italy, the proportion of positive tests peaked six days ago at 33%. Two days ago it was 25%. It's now 22%. This suggests that there was previously undertesting.
While there will be volatility, I would expect that the Lombardy and Veneto new cases numbers will not exceed the peaks set yesterday going forward. And I suspect that Italy as a whole will probably peak early this week - say Monday or Tuesday.
https://medium.com/wintoncentre/how-much-normal-risk-does-covid-represent-4539118e1196
So, roughly speaking, we might say that getting COVID-19 is like packing a year’s worth of risk into a week or two. Which is why it’s important to spread out the infections to avoid the NHS being overwhelmed.
It’s important to note that all the risks quoted are the average (mean) risks for people of the relevant age, but are not the risks of the average person! This is because, both for COVID and in normal circumstances, much of the risk is held by people whom are already chronically ill. So for the large majority of healthy people, their risks of either dying from COVID, or dying of something else, are much lower than those quoted here. Although of course for every death there will be others who are seriously ill.
Also, as Triggle points out, there will be substantial overlap in these two groups — many people who die of COVID would have died anyway within a short period — and so these risks cannot be simply added, and it does not simply double the risk of people who get infected. It is crucially important that the NHS is not overwhelmed, but if COVID deaths can be kept in the order of say 20,000 by stringent suppression measures, as is now being suggested, there may end up being a minimal impact on overall mortality for 2020 (although background mortality could increase due to pressures on the health services and the side-effects of isolation). Although, as we are seeing, at vast cost.
I'm not sure why.
People have a right to ask questions and I hope in the fullness of time there will be a public account of what happened and the bases on which certain decisions were taken. I'd expect the Prime Minister to appear before such a forum to explain his policy decisions.
He and the rest of his advisors need to be given space
The messaging could at times have been clearer.. But it has also been perfectly clear at times and people have still not listened, and even perfect communications would not entirely eliminate people acting contrarily.
That does not mean there may not be personal and political consequences for Boris or the government generally regarding the nature of their response to and efforts regarding this crisis and errors or failed measures undertaken during it, but I do struggle with casting blame regarding some pretty clear communications which have been ignored by some, as the sort who do that will not all be swayed by a slightly harder tone.
Unfortunately others just don’t listen. This crisis is showing us that our principal enemy is each other. The panic buying and the packing out the parks today shows that.
I have sympathy with government in these circumstances because what you essentially have is a group of incredibly selfish people spoiling it for everyone else. But I agree that a tougher lockdown is coming because this can’t be sustained. Boris and the government are trying to strike a balance and I don’t think it’s easy (I have tremendous sympathy with governments of all persuasions at the moment).
I feel as it the world is a bell that has just been donged with ongoing resonances.
So for all the frustration at people not heeding govt advice the actual impact in reality could actually be limited. And I find it very difficult to believe that if any future lockdown lasts more than a few weeks then it will have to be loosened.
After the crisis yes we call them to account while being aware we are blessed with hindsight and they weren't when making the decisions. A lot of the crap being thrown though is decidely not helping matters get resolved.
Few of us have the in depth information nor the knowledge to make the best interpretation so let us just trust the science bods advising know what they are doing
However, watch the Lomabardy / Veneto figures closely, as they're three or four days ahead of the curve. If they come down tomorrow and Tuesday, then we can be increasingly confident that the lockdown is working.
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/guidance-on-shielding-and-protecting-extremely-vulnerable-persons-from-covid-19/guidance-on-shielding-and-protecting-extremely-vulnerable-persons-from-covid-19
I am not trying to be acone person Boris fan club but I am seeking fairness in judging him and others leading this fight. I do not hear attacks on Nicola Sturgeon when she is following the same Cobra policy
Note, also, that Germany is not prohibiting people going to work, just requesting they keep further apart. In many ways, they have implemented restrictions that are very similar to the UK I think (perhaps @eristdoof or @kamski could confirm?) It certainly sounds that way and from that article.
Yes, of course we don't have all the information but even if you do it doesn't guarantee the correct conclusions are drawn and the correct decisions made.