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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » David Cameron once said Dominic Cummings was a ‘career psychop

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  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    kinabalu said:

    With Corbyn we will never know. He could be either the greatest or the worst PM we never had. My sense is something in between. Probably the most 'slightly above average but seemed better than that because of such low expectations' PM we never had.
    The fact that Corbyn seems to be deliberately flouting Government advice for older people says all you need to know about him.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    kicorse said:

    Well done. That's about where I was last summer but I've put a bit of weight on since then. Was planning to up my running again in June for the Loch Ness Marathon in October, but I'm not too optimistic that it will go ahead....
    Loch Ness Marathon is lovely but a killer - all the way, but from mile 18 especially. Don't go hoping for a personal best.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,812
    alex_ said:

    The fact that Corbyn seems to be deliberately flouting Government advice for older people says all you need to know about him.

    Oh do stop it.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,120

    Oh dear that's awful.

    Let's hope they are wrong.
    TBF that does depend heavily on the overlap with the 600,000 deaths we’d expect in a normal year anyway.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,103
    Charles said:

    I'm not disputing that it's quite possibly true.

    I'm criticising the wankers who are selectively leaking to the press to damage Cummings at a time of national emergency.
    considering he is pulling all the strings the person is doing the country a service. We need to know what these venal unprincipled liars are really up to.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,302
    Mortimer said:

    Frankly, the only people causing confusion seem to be the media who want a story. And individuals who want to flout the rules.

    What is confusing about

    Stay home.
    Save Lives.
    Protect our NHS.

    Sadly, Boris is by nature the court jester, the classroom clown. There are times when that has worked well for him but, to put it bluntly, he lacks gravitas.

    Not necessarily his fault but there it is.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    IanB2 said:

    TBF that does depend heavily on the overlap with the 600,000 deaths we’d expect in a normal year anyway.
    It's an interesting question to ask how many of the people going into hospital with Coronavirus might in normal years have died peacefully in their beds and never touched the hospital system.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,559
    kinabalu said:

    With Corbyn we will never know. He could be either the greatest or the worst PM we never had. My sense is something in between. Probably the most 'slightly above average but seemed better than that because of such low expectations' PM we never had.
    It was intended as an ironic reference to his, ummm, lively sex life.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,136
    Mortimer said:

    Stay home.
    Save Lives.
    Protect our NHS.

    Nothing, except that's not what BoZo said at any of his press conferences.

    That's the problem.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,103
    eadric said:

    It’s far too early to say if any method or policy has “worked”. We are in the very early stages of a pandemic that will likely last many months, or even years.

    Countries that seem to do well now might get horrible second waves next winter, as happened with Spanish flu. Perhaps in the end every country will suffer pretty much equally

    I agree there are no great choices. There are only sad and wretched choices.
    Back to we are all doomed I see.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,812
    edited March 2020
    ydoethur said:

    It was intended as an ironic reference to his, ummm, lively sex life.

    Oh, I see! Didn't realize he had a rep as a player. Well well. Up the workers.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,559

    I think there's more of an industrial element, but I'll have a look later.
    Since if my information is right the UK's industrial base is currently around 30% larger than that of France that seems unlikely.
  • NY governor saying that their current prediction is that they will require twice as much capacity as they currently have in the healthcare system.

    I am watching this speech too - why the hell isn't this guy President?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295
    eadric said:

    It was 250,000. And everyone agrees that 20,000 is very optimistic. If we can keep it to that we will have done exceptionally well.

    As I may have mentioned last night, I’ve been in touch with a friend who knows a very senior NHS bod and she - the NHS expert - is personally expecting 300,000 deaths.
    This article finally discusses the uncomfortable issue of whether many of the people dying of the virus probably would have died anyway from other conditions within a relatively short time.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51979654

    "The coronavirus deaths will not be on top of this. Many would be within this "normal" number of expected deaths.

    It was a point conceded by Sir Patrick at a press conference on Thursday when he said there would be "some overlap" between coronavirus deaths and expected deaths - he just did not know how much of an overlap."
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,670
    edited March 2020
    @Cyclefree #GardeningCorner.

    Today's hour in the garden.

    Forsythia Pruning has started, and the following arrangements will help leaven the 3 month "house arrest".

    Surprised that the holly still has berries, but it is not big enough yet to lose big chunks of foliage unfortunately.

    New question tomorrow hopefully. Probably about pruning old Fruit Trees.

    https://twitter.com/mattwardman/status/1241747280266498051

  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,805
    I liked the advice I saw earlier "Remember if food gets scarce vegans are the closest to grass fed meat"
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,553
    Scott_xP said:
    What the actual F????

    We are days away from a complete lockdown with virtual police state now. That is going to be the only way to stop the twats of Britain.
  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    IanB2 said:

    TBF that does depend heavily on the overlap with the 600,000 deaths we’d expect in a normal year anyway.
    Worth pointing out that for seasonal flu figures we usually look at the "excess deaths" to see how good/bad the flu season has been, so people who die with/of flu but would have died at about the same time anyway don't show up in figures calculated on that basis. Whereas with the COVID-19 modelling figures, that distinction isn't generally being made.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,683
    Churchill didn't sink the French Navy at Mers El Kébir.

    Only one battleship (Bretagne) and a tugboat were sunk.
    2 battleships, 3 destroyers and a seaplane tender were damaged.
    1 battleship and 2 destroyers escaped damage.

    It was only the fact that Bretagne sank quickly that nearly 1,300 Frenchmen died.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Attack_on_Mers-el-Kébir

  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,302
    Italy has been locked down for one day shy of two weeks. Not much sign of that lock-down slowing the accelerating death rate yet. :disappointed:
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    I see Primark is shutting up shop - where will all the chavs go? Peacocks? Matalan?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,271
    ydoethur said:

    Since if my information is right the UK's industrial base is currently around 30% larger than that of France that seems unlikely.
    I think that electricity is the default in France as cheap nuclear, compared with fossil fuels.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    MattW said:

    @Cyclefree #GardeningCorner.

    Forsythia Pruning has started, and the following arrangements will help leaven the 3 month "house arrest".

    Surprised that the holly still has berries, but it is not big enough yet to lose big chunks of foliage unfortunately.

    New question tomorrow hopefully. Probably about pruning old Fruit Trees.

    https://twitter.com/mattwardman/status/1241747280266498051

    Fruit trees will be well into growth now so best left till winter.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295

    Italy has been locked down for one day shy of two weeks. Not much sign of that lock-down slowing the accelerating death rate yet. :disappointed:

    Doesn't it take around 3 weeks for any actions to have an effect on the pandemic?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,100
    Scott_xP said:
    The nudge unit needs more than a nudge.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,526
    edited March 2020

    Italy has been locked down for one day shy of two weeks. Not much sign of that lock-down slowing the accelerating death rate yet. :disappointed:

    Given the way the virus effects humans, it takes 2 weeks before you will start to see any difference.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mCa0JXEwDEk&t=3s
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,559

    Churchill didn't sink the French Navy at Mers El Kébir.

    Only one battleship (Bretagne) and a tugboat were sunk.
    2 battleships, 3 destroyers and a seaplane tender were damaged.
    1 battleship and 2 destroyers escaped damage.

    It was only the fact that Bretagne sank quickly that nearly 1,300 Frenchmen died.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Attack_on_Mers-el-Kébir

    Didn't the French blow up the survivors anyway in 1943 to stop the Germans taking them?
  • Scott_xP said:
    From a friend down South, this is a Tesco near them. Social distancing eh?


  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,559
    Foxy said:

    I think that electricity is the default in France as cheap nuclear, compared with fossil fuels.
    That was what I thought as well.
  • ABZABZ Posts: 441
    Foxy said:

    I think that electricity is the default in France as cheap nuclear, compared with fossil fuels.
    True. And good luck next week Foxy - hopefully your prediction that in 4-6 weeks this will be calming down is proved correct!! (BTW, I sent you an email to the address associated with your account - not sure if you saw it or not - no need to reply if it's irrelevant!)
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,526
    edited March 2020
    Lockdown has to come now...f##king stupid tw@ts can't just engage brain and use some common sense...but then the media are just as bad asking about having play dates for their kids and going on summer holidays.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,553
    ABZ said:

    True. And good luck next week Foxy - hopefully your prediction that in 4-6 weeks this will be calming down is proved correct!! (BTW, I sent you an email to the address associated with your account - not sure if you saw it or not - no need to reply if it's irrelevant!)
    Did we have a prediction this will be calming down in 4-6 weeks. That would be fantastic, but based on what though?

  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,030
    edited March 2020
    Scott_xP said:

    I am far from Nicola's biggest fan, but she is at least a professional

    https://twitter.com/REWearmouth/status/1241742660790104066

    The clown in Downing Street is causing unnecessary infections

    You do know that Nicola is part of Cobra policy making along with the Welsh and Northern Ireland First Ministers. She is expressing the Cobra position headed by Boris

    Your hatred of Boris shows no bounds
  • isamisam Posts: 41,335
    IshmaelZ said:

    Why not put yourself to the trouble of 2 minutes googling before posting that? Flu is seasonal, that is what it does every Feb or Mar, as you would discover if you searched for, say, flu epidemiology 201x and came up with things like this: https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/sites/default/files/documents/AER_for_2017-seasonal-influenza.pdf - see graph p.3.

    Your post falsely suggests that there is something unusual about your graph - an unhelpful illusion and I am sorry to say it is either lazy or dishonest of you to do this.
    God you're tiresome.

    I asked a question, hoping the answer might be differential diagnosis. Why is that so evil? I already acknowledged that the person who responded that flu is less prevalent in March is probably right, as you would have seen if you read on.

    A thousand apologies for trying to think outside the box. Shame on me
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,409
    Andy_JS said:

    This article finally discusses the uncomfortable issue of whether many of the people dying of the virus probably would have died anyway from other conditions within a relatively short time.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51979654

    "The coronavirus deaths will not be on top of this. Many would be within this "normal" number of expected deaths.

    It was a point conceded by Sir Patrick at a press conference on Thursday when he said there would be "some overlap" between coronavirus deaths and expected deaths - he just did not know how much of an overlap."

    This is a very important point.

    In 2018, the last year for which we have full data, 616,014 people died in the UK, an increase of 1.5% over 2017. If we assume that the "natural" progression is for 1.5% more people to die in 2019 and in 2020 (and there are good reasons to think that with an ageing population, the numbers should be slightly higher than that), then one would expect around 635,000 people to die in the UK in 2020.

    Unless something else horrible appears, one would expect that the vast majority of the difference between the the actual death number for 2020 and 635,000 is the CV-19 excess morbidity.

    My guess is that the actual death number will end up being in the 660,000 to 680,000 range - i.e. we'll see 5% more deaths indicating an excess morbidity of around 35,000 deaths. However, I think the public death number for CV-19 may very well be 50-100% higher than that.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,271
    Scott_xP said:
    On the red funnel back to the mainland, noticeably fewer private cars than coming over on Friday, mostly commercial vehicles. Safer than London at present, but with only a handful if ICU beds it wouldn't take much to overwhelm St Mary's Hospital.

    Oldies doing alright and in good spirits, spoken to though closed windows. The only place with toilet rolls was the foodbank hamper in Tescos.

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,553
    Anyone know a good image hosting service?
  • Scott_xP said:

    Nothing, except that's not what BoZo said at any of his press conferences.

    That's the problem.
    Of course it is what he is saying.
  • Scott_xP said:
    I posted that report yesterday
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,359

    Of course it is what he is saying.
    It was even on the front of the podium.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,359

    Anyone know a good image hosting service?

    imgur
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,553
    malcolmg said:
    As I said earlier, we will be in a virtual police state lockdown by Friday if these people don't start listening.

    I guess it might only be London, but I suspect Johnson won't want to single out the capital in case that causes a mass exodus they can't control.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,526
    edited March 2020
    Although the messaging could be better, the public doing this stuff know they are doing wrong, but tell themselves I'll be ok or I don't count because....and then they will blame the government for everything.

    You have to been in the German Big Brother house for the past 2 months not to know what is going on and what you shouldn't be doing.
  • What the actual F????

    We are days away from a complete lockdown with virtual police state now. That is going to be the only way to stop the twats of Britain.
    I agree and Nicola Sturgeon alluded to such and of course it will be authorised by Cobra possibly this week
  • ABZABZ Posts: 441
    It's curious that some countries (e.g., Scandinavia / Austria / Switzerland) have really slowed the number of new cases over the past few days (Worldometer). This can't be due to the recent restrictions imposed as the cases should all have been contracted before that (lockdown only started 5 days ago in Scandinavia at least) - quite curious...
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    Scott_xP said:
    The stupid thing about this is, if you actually become ill the last place you want to be is out in the sticks in a place with poor medical facilities.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,805

    Anyone know a good image hosting service?

    flickr or imgur depending
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,079
    edited March 2020
    eadric said:
    More evidence that the virus is much more contagious and much less dangerous than assumed.

    % infected x fatality rate = deaths
    Deaths are known so if %infected is higher, then fatality rate is lower.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,559
    malcolmg said:
    Lots of plant life on display there.

    And quite a lot of flowers as well.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,805
    Barnesian said:

    More evidence that the virus is much more contagious and much less dangerous than assumed.

    % infected x fatality rate = deaths
    Deaths are known so if %infected is higher, then fatality rate is lower.
    one maybe for all the "its not a risk crowd" to take on board
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,526
    edited March 2020
    HYUFD said:

    twitter.com/POLITICOEurope/status/1241696213780631552?s=20

    God, we are f##ked. It had to be Gove.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,553
    HYUFD said:
    Deluded.

    There is no exit strategy, other than vaccine (12-18 months) or Summer.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    You know back in the dim and distant past of a couple of weeks ago when I was furious that the Scotland France game was going ahead and that the idea of 10,000 plague carriers from the south of France turning up was a really dumb idea?

    Turns out the first person to die of covid-19 in Scotland was a French Rugby fan who came over for the game.
  • MonkeysMonkeys Posts: 767
    Cummings doesn't want the job for long and is there to take the heat for anything that turns out controversial. See: Carrie briefing against him when the ex-chancellor went. Herd immunity was an outcome, not an aim, that became controversial because we don't follow the Chinese strategy with respect to irresponsible journalism.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,526
    edited March 2020

    Deluded.

    There is no exit strategy, other than vaccine (12-18 months) or Summer.
    It is why I don't think the French approach of just 2 weeks lads, just another 2 weeks...then people realize they mean 2 years.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,746

    The stupid thing about this is, if you actually become ill the last place you want to be is out in the sticks in a place with poor medical facilities.
    Same thing is happening in the States. I follow the various US National Parks on IG and all are now asking people to stay away/closing.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,553
    HYUFD said:
    We really are fucked now.

    Clearly Gove would be better choice.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,683
    ydoethur said:

    Didn't the French blow up the survivors anyway in 1943 to stop the Germans taking them?
    Yes, in November 1942, making the Royal Navy attack in 1940 completely pointless.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scuttling_of_the_French_fleet_at_Toulon
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,100
    edited March 2020
    So looking at the evidence the nudge policy has failed. Far from encouraging social distancing, for many it has encouraged the opposite.

    My view is that people are making hay whilst the sun shines in fear of worse to come. If so, the approach of ramping up measures has a lot to answer for.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,559
    edited March 2020
    HYUFD said:
    I am suddenly very anxious that every precaution should be taken for the safety and wellbeing of Boris Johnson.

    Edit - to be fair, though, there isn't an obvious standout choice. Gove? Patel? Sunak? All deeply flawed in one way or another. Ben Wallace perhaps, but no doubt they think he's needed where he is.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    edited March 2020
    Scott_xP said:

    I am far from Nicola's biggest fan, but she is at least a professional

    https://twitter.com/REWearmouth/status/1241742660790104066

    The clown in Downing Street is causing unnecessary infections

    Must be why no-one in Scotland is ignoring the advice.... oh...wait #theonlyclownonhereisScott-xP
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,100

    We really are fucked now.

    Clearly Gove would be better choice.
    I was rather hoping for the downing st cat. A different species would be a sensible precaution.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,409
    edited March 2020

    Did we have a prediction this will be calming down in 4-6 weeks. That would be fantastic, but based on what though?

    Here's my prediction:

    UK numbers will continue to climb, prompting ever more significant lockdowns.

    The results in a near total lockdown from 7 April onwards. Only those with essential work, or getting groceries, will be allowed out.

    This results in the UK infection rate peaking on around 20 April, and then gradually tailing off. On 6 May, the first "new infections" below 200 is recorded, and on 10 May, it goes below 100.

    The UK government now has the capability to test more than 25,000 people per day. Furthermore, the first large scale random antibody test is carried out in London to see how many people have had CV-19. To the government's surprise, it comes out as a little more than 15%.

    As the crisis continues, treatments improve and improve. There are more ventilators in hospitals and special wards are created. Drug regimes continue to get better, and the use of a smartphone app for rapid testing, and prevenitive courses means that hospitalisation rates decline.

    The government allows schools to reopen for the last month of the school year, although attendance is spotty. Most large scale restrictions are lifted in late June.

    Although the pace of growth is slower, thanks to much better testing, the virus does come back. By the end of July, the new infection rate is back to 200-300/day, even with South Korean type measures. The UK government announces that there will be a further two week lockdown in the last two weeks of the school summer holidays. At the time of lockdown, new cases are running just north of 1,000/day again, but this is rapidly squashed down by the two week lockdown. The early notice helped too: simply it turns out that the economic impact of shutdowns is much less if - like Christmas - they are telegraphed well in advance.

    Again, daily cases collapse during the lockdown. The govenrnment announces the next lockdown period will be over Christmas 2020. Adult children are faced with a difficult choice... two weeks with their parents all the time, or two weeks without their parents at all...

    The pace of new cases grows again, but slower this time around. With a quarter of Londoners having already had CV-19, there are fewer infection vectors. People are better about using the app. And the UK Testing Force sets up mobile testing checkpoints to do random tests.

    Britain ends 2020 having seen around 25,000 deaths, a nasty recession, but society is intact, and there is room for optimism about 2021.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,538
    edited March 2020
    Alistair said:

    You know back in the dim and distant past of a couple of weeks ago when I was furious that the Scotland France game was going ahead and that the idea of 10,000 plague carriers from the south of France turning up was a really dumb idea?

    Turns out the first person to die of covid-19 in Scotland was a French Rugby fan who came over for the game.

    Apparently he had an aggressive form a cancer - what I can’t find out is whether they were being treated for that, or if they were unaware of their condition.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,854
    Barnesian said:

    More evidence that the virus is much more contagious and much less dangerous than assumed.

    % infected x fatality rate = deaths
    Deaths are known so if %infected is higher, then fatality rate is lower.
    This is delusional wishful thinking, I'm afraid. Death is a lagging indicator, so if the virus is spreading very fast, it just means there are a lot of people walking around who are contagious, and some of them are themselves doomed.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,746
    HYUFD said:
    Idiots. The country is crying out for the steady hand of Chris Grayling
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,087

    Deluded.

    There is no exit strategy, other than vaccine (12-18 months) or Summer.
    The end of June will be summer
  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651


    It is very, very complicated. For a start the classic examples are usual highly virulent diseases, and what is usually not mentioned so frequently is that the least virulent strains of them can also get out-competed. The pressures on viruses that aren't highly virulent like this one are far less severe.

    Also,

    https://www.the-scientist.com/features/do-pathogens-gain-virulence-as-hosts-become-more-resistant-30219



    Does this sound familiar to anyone?

    In other words this virus may be SARS fighting back.
    That's an interesting and accessible article written by an academic in that area.

    I think his final bit re public health is worth quoting. I have noticed that in the public arena, politicians and wonks and medics are talking about vaccination like it's going to be brilliant. They're looking desperately for an exit route from the current chaos. There are difficult issues with mass vaccination, including some delicate ethical problems - eg it is almost certain there will be some vaccine-related adverse events, but the benefits to children of being vaccinated are, on an individual level, likely to be low in the case of COVID-19. Effectively we asking that age group to accept harm in order to confer a benefit on a different group of older or more vulnerable adults. Although not publicised in the media so much (have they learned lessons from Wakefield/MMR?) these perspectives are still fairly well-known and understood. There is though a much more troubling point that I have seen discussed in public health circles, don't think I've ever seen it in the media, suspect isn't common knowledge in political circles, and is subject to grave uncertainty:

    Could the widespread use of human vaccines lead to the evolution of pathogens that would be more harmful to the unvaccinated? Most of the human vaccines that have been in use for decades generate sterilizing immunity and so would not be expected to promote pathogen evolution. But next-generation vaccines might be less effective. Clearly, we all hope for malaria or HIV vaccines that completely prevent transmission, but in the absence of fundamental breakthroughs, it seems likely that our current list of vaccine-preventable diseases will soon be joined by a list of vaccine-ameliorable diseases, in which symptoms are alleviated but infection and onward transmission continue. In those cases, it will be critical to understand the possible evolutionary trajectories those target pathogens might take once they evolve in populations that can, just like resistant Australian rabbits, control pathogen titers and sickness, but not prevent infection.

    Mathematical models and experimental studies point to the possibility that for some diseases and some vaccines, immunized people might create conditions for the evolution of pathogens that cause more-severe disease in the nonimmunized.1,2 There are controversial suggestions that this might already be so for the nonsterilizing* vaccines against pertussis (also known as whooping cough),3,4,5 and for our money, there is a strong case for examining the evolutionary consequences of vaccines against cervical cancer and typhoid fever. This is not an argument against next-generation vaccines; rather, it is an admonition that, in the future, we may need additional tools to protect those whom vaccines cannot reach.


    *nonsterilizing = some vaccines turn out to be pretty good at protecting you from the disease, but you can still carry the infection and transmit it to others
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,553
    HYUFD said:

    The end of June will be summer
    We have no idea whether summer will do the trick. It is just a wish and a prayer.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,103
    HYUFD said:
    Just when you thought it could not possibly get worse
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,559
    Jonathan said:

    I was rather hoping for the downing st cat. A different species would be a sensible precaution.
    Another reason for appointing Gove.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,762

    We really are fucked now.

    Clearly Gove would be better choice.
    Is it because Raab has already had it and is literally a survivor ?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,100
    ydoethur said:

    Another reason for appointing Gove.
    😱😷
  • rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 2,038

    You do know that Nicola is part of Cobra policy making along with the Welsh and Northern Ireland First Ministers. She is expressing the Cobra position headed by Boris

    Your hatred of Boris shows no bounds
    One doesn't have to hate him to think that he should have pursued a career as a chat-show host, stand-up comedian and journalist, not politician. If the Tory party wanted a serious PM who could also do show-biz, why didn't it try Gyles Brandreth?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,103
    Alistair said:

    You know back in the dim and distant past of a couple of weeks ago when I was furious that the Scotland France game was going ahead and that the idea of 10,000 plague carriers from the south of France turning up was a really dumb idea?

    Turns out the first person to die of covid-19 in Scotland was a French Rugby fan who came over for the game.

    He had cancer and other such ailments, probably wanted to see his last game
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,559
    Jonathan said:

    😱😷
    B)>:)
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,103

    We really are fucked now.

    Clearly Gove would be better choice.
    That would have been the absolute worst choice, Putin would be better than Gove.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,762
    Jonathan said:

    So looking at the evidence the nudge policy has failed. Far from encouraging social distancing, for many it has encouraged the opposite.

    My view is that people are making hay whilst the sun shines in fear of worse to come. If so, the approach of ramping up measures has a lot to answer for.

    Is this a London thing ?
    It was bloody quiet when I ventured out this afternoon for a brief walk, and I had no problem keeping well over 3m from the occasional passerby.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,838
    malcolmg said:
    One assumes the fact he was there as an outraged photo taker not a punter meant that he didn't add to the situation whatsoever.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,409
    ABZ said:

    It's curious that some countries (e.g., Scandinavia / Austria / Switzerland) have really slowed the number of new cases over the past few days (Worldometer). This can't be due to the recent restrictions imposed as the cases should all have been contracted before that (lockdown only started 5 days ago in Scandinavia at least) - quite curious...

    Maybe in those countries people are better at taking the hint and staying home...
  • ABZABZ Posts: 441
    rcs1000 said:

    Here's my prediction:

    UK numbers will continue to climb, prompting ever more significant lockdowns.

    The results in a near total lockdown from 7 April onwards. Only those with essential work, or getting groceries, will be allowed out.

    This results in the UK infection rate peaking on around 20 April, and then gradually tailing off. On 6 May, the first "new infections" below 200 is recorded, and on 10 May, it goes below 100.

    The UK government now has the capability to test more than 25,000 people per day. Furthermore, the first large scale random antibody test is carried out in London to see how many people have had CV-19. To the government's surprise, it comes out as a little more than 15%.

    As the crisis continues, treatments improve and improve. There are more ventilators in hospitals and special wards are created. Drug regimes continue to get better, and the use of a smartphone app for rapid testing, and prevenitive courses means that hospitalisation rates decline.

    The government allows schools to reopen for the last month of the school year, although attendance is spotty. Most large scale restrictions are lifted in late June.

    Although the pace of growth is slower, thanks to much better testing, the virus does come back. By the end of July, the new infection rate is back to 200-300/day, even with South Korean type measures. The UK government announces that there will be a further two week lockdown in the last two weeks of the school summer holidays. At the time of lockdown, new cases are running just north of 1,000/day again, but this is rapidly squashed down by the two week lockdown. The early notice helped too: simply it turns out that the economic impact of shutdowns is much less if - like Christmas - they are telegraphed well in advance.

    Again, daily cases collapse during the lockdown. The govenrnment announces the next lockdown period will be over Christmas 2020. Adult children are faced with a difficult choice... two weeks with their parents all the time, or two weeks without their parents at all...

    The pace of new cases grows again, but slower this time around. With a quarter of Londoners having already had CV-19, there are fewer infection vectors. People are better about using the app. And the UK Testing Force sets up mobile testing checkpoints to do random tests.

    Britain ends 2020 having seen around 25,000 deaths, a nasty recession, but society is intact, and there is room for optimism about 2021.
    I think we will go into the extreme lockdown a little earlier. And the number of fatalities could be a touch higher. But otherwise I agree - with shorter, sharper (but total) lockdowns future iterations of the virus can be managed without the chaos we (and, to be fair, most of Europe) are currently experiencing. For example, Italy is only today going to the total lockdown mode (Spain went there on Monday, so, perversely, I expect cases there may decline before Italy).
  • One doesn't have to hate him to think that he should have pursued a career as a chat-show host, stand-up comedian and journalist, not politician. If the Tory party wanted a serious PM who could also do show-biz, why didn't it try Gyles Brandreth?
    Who
  • ABZABZ Posts: 441
    Nigelb said:

    Is this a London thing ?
    It was bloody quiet when I ventured out this afternoon for a brief walk, and I had no problem keeping well over 3m from the occasional passerby.
    I think it might well be tbh. Here as well it's very quiet and when going for a walk people are really keeping their distance very carefully.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,079
    HYUFD said:
    On the grounds that he has already had it and is therefore immune?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,359
    Barnesian said:

    On the grounds that he has already had it and is therefore immune?
    What makes you say that?
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    The French are considering the following

    The government may also roll out a tax-free coronavirus “attendance bonus” for people who need to be at their workplace to carry out their jobs, officials have said.

    Can I suggest it would be a nice thing to give to front line NHS staff
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,035
    HYUFD said:
    Seriously that does not fill me with any confidence at all.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,030
    edited March 2020
    For all Boris's critics and those demanding his media appearances

    'Live' Boris press conference at 5.00pm

    A pattern seems to be emerging with co-ordinated press conference between Nicola Sturgeon and Boris

    Expect the messaging to be similar
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,079
    rcs1000 said:

    Here's my prediction:

    UK numbers will continue to climb, prompting ever more significant lockdowns.

    The results in a near total lockdown from 7 April onwards. Only those with essential work, or getting groceries, will be allowed out.

    This results in the UK infection rate peaking on around 20 April, and then gradually tailing off. On 6 May, the first "new infections" below 200 is recorded, and on 10 May, it goes below 100.

    The UK government now has the capability to test more than 25,000 people per day. Furthermore, the first large scale random antibody test is carried out in London to see how many people have had CV-19. To the government's surprise, it comes out as a little more than 15%.

    As the crisis continues, treatments improve and improve. There are more ventilators in hospitals and special wards are created. Drug regimes continue to get better, and the use of a smartphone app for rapid testing, and prevenitive courses means that hospitalisation rates decline.

    The government allows schools to reopen for the last month of the school year, although attendance is spotty. Most large scale restrictions are lifted in late June.

    Although the pace of growth is slower, thanks to much better testing, the virus does come back. By the end of July, the new infection rate is back to 200-300/day, even with South Korean type measures. The UK government announces that there will be a further two week lockdown in the last two weeks of the school summer holidays. At the time of lockdown, new cases are running just north of 1,000/day again, but this is rapidly squashed down by the two week lockdown. The early notice helped too: simply it turns out that the economic impact of shutdowns is much less if - like Christmas - they are telegraphed well in advance.

    Again, daily cases collapse during the lockdown. The govenrnment announces the next lockdown period will be over Christmas 2020. Adult children are faced with a difficult choice... two weeks with their parents all the time, or two weeks without their parents at all...

    The pace of new cases grows again, but slower this time around. With a quarter of Londoners having already had CV-19, there are fewer infection vectors. People are better about using the app. And the UK Testing Force sets up mobile testing checkpoints to do random tests.

    Britain ends 2020 having seen around 25,000 deaths, a nasty recession, but society is intact, and there is room for optimism about 2021.
    Credible scenario
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,087
    edited March 2020

    We have no idea whether summer will do the trick. It is just a wish and a prayer.
    By then we should be passed the peak until the winter, beyond that social distancing will just have to be applied and relaxed as we reach and leave each peak until a vaccine is found
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    You do know that Nicola is part of Cobra policy making along with the Welsh and Northern Ireland First Ministers. She is expressing the Cobra position headed by Boris

    Your hatred of Boris shows no bounds
    The point is you can understand what the message is when Nicola gives it, your don't with Boris.

    Boris gives the message and then totally muddies it with his ad-libbing because he can't help himself.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,805
    ABZ said:

    I think it might well be tbh. Here as well it's very quiet and when going for a walk people are really keeping their distance very carefully.
    Went out yesterday as had to shop, high st quieter than normal but those out didnt seem to be behaving differently
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,087

    Who
    https://twitter.com/GylesB1/status/1241690829808455681?s=20
This discussion has been closed.