Jesus Christ, don't you ever get tired of amplifying this nonsense? Yes, Boris and Cummings won a majority 8 times the size of Dave's. It's done, time to get over it.
Net gain of seats at the first general election
Cameron: +108
Johnson: +48
David Cameron did all the heavy lifting.
Or Johnson made the breakthrough that Cameron was unable to
It's eating them up that both the country and the Conservative party have taken a different course than the one they want. It does not compute so they bang on about Brexit, Boris and now Cummings slithering around in the gutter in the midst of a real problem. If it wasn't so awful it'd be funny.
All employees to remain on full pay. That's the way to do it.
Everything I know about the Timpson family is really positive. Timpsons snr fostering 100s of kids, they treat their employees well even in normal times and genuinely believe in giving back to society.
People with underlying health conditions including severe asthma and specific cancers are being urged to stay at home “at all times” to protect themselves against coronavirus.
People who fall into the high-risk categories should avoid any face-to-face contact for at least 12 weeks, the government said.
Said advice being virtually useless unless:
(1) everybody who lives with said vulnerable persons is also instructed to do the same thing, which the authorities aren't doing (all they get is the parroting of the standard hygiene advice, which does next-to-no good if they're required to go out to work and to join the bunfight in the shops, bringing them into contact with a load of Plague vectors so that they just end up taking the disease home with them) AND (2) the most vulnerable people get absolute priority straight away (not in about six weeks' or three months' time) for home grocery deliveries, by whatever means can be found. There's absolutely no sign of this so, unless said persons are lucky enough to have friends or relatives close by who can do it for them, they or members of their household have to go out and join all the Plague vectors fighting over the last bag of pasta in the supermarket
If the support isn't in place for people who are meant to avoid all contact, then giving the advice in the first place is completely pointless. The NHS might as well save itself the cost (both monetary and in terms of finite working time) of sending all those letters and text messages.
Actually there is sign of the second one. Certainly Sainsburys have a preference system in place whereby you can register if you are over 70 or have a condition which puts you inside this group and they will give priority to those people in assigning slots. This has been in place for a week or so now.
That's something I suppose, though still not much use if you live in an area such as mine, where the home delivery service is already completely overloaded and they've either shut down (Ocado) or have no slots available for about a month (everyone else.)
The delivery system requires a factory reset: all the existing orders to be scrubbed and then slots made available to priority customers and no-one else.
It's proof that a "whitehall official" is waging an internal war at a point they should be focused on keeping the country as safe as can be
Where is a Whitehall official mentioned?
My reading is that at a private engagement (i.e. not govt business) Cummings is alleged to have said this by several people present ["those present"].
I think it's highly plausible that in his quest to be a misunderstood science genius, he would have said something that sounded a lot like that.
There was a buzzfeed article from yesterday with a similar line of attack which quoted a "whitehall official" [I assume a SpAd]. I'm working on the basis that they are a coordinated attack.
Times would require 2 or more people before they printed that. Buzzfeed I'm not sure.
The article also quotes a senior Tory "“Dominic himself had a conversion,” a senior Tory said. “He’s gone from ‘herd immunity and let the old people die’, to ‘let’s shut down the country and the economy."
That Tory might be one of the original 2, or he might be another figure.
Balance of probabilities very much that this is true.
Changing the software or rules or communication of new rules might be a quicker and more effective solution to what was clearly a bonkers situation.
Maybe the supermarkets and the NHS could come to an arrangement whereby the staff place orders via a priority service to be delivered directly. Delivering directly to hospitals may cause chaos but a mutually convenient point cannot be beyond the wit of man
This is the problem, it is so easy done that you touch something they have and you won't even know it. But he might well have caught it from somebody / something else.
It is why I was saying earlier this morning, start from the presumption everybody and everything outside your house has been infected and work from there.
If JD Sports and Sports Direct also follow suit. This is when the riots start.
We call all probably survive a few weeks without clothes shopping.
How about a 20% drop in GDP?
Millions unemployed, receiving government handouts. The rest paying 90% of their salary in a super tax. People unable to pay mortgages, homes repossessed, people living in their cars, children without a roof over their head. Food rationing. Violent crime up. Civil unrest.
Because that is where we will be in six months time if we don't get a handle on this.
That starts to scare me more than the headline mortality rate for this thing.
It won't get that bad. When the human suffering caused by the Plague prevention measures outweighs that caused by the Plague itself, then the prevention measures will have to be relaxed. The race is now on to increase the Plague victim care capacity of the NHS as much as possible before this point is inevitably reached.
He who lives by the anonymous briefing dies by the anonymous briefing. I have no doubt Cummings is defamed here. The government response to the virus has been incompetent, but not actually malign.
It's proof that a "whitehall official" is waging an internal war at a point they should be focused on keeping the country as safe as can be
It’s not proof of anything. It’s a piece of evidence capable of varying interpretation. No doubt more will emerge in the fullness of time; until then, it’s pure speculation.
If it is true, you can understand why someone would want to leak it.
Actually, no, I can't.
As soon as you start leaking internal advice from officials then you cramp their ability to express their views. Additionally the quote is deliberately designed to damage Cummings.
If you think one of them, who possesses outsize influence, is a dangerous psychopath, then cramping the ability of officials to express their views is something of a secondary consideration.
No. There are processes internally for that. If the PM wants to work with him then it is not the job of an official to try and undermine him. Especially not now.
Again, you are assuming it was an official.
Official or politician. (I assume it was a SpAd). There was an article yesterday in buzzfeed that quoted a "whitehall official"
If JD Sports and Sports Direct also follow suit. This is when the riots start.
We call all probably survive a few weeks without clothes shopping.
How about a 20% drop in GDP?
Millions unemployed, receiving government handouts. The rest paying 90% of their salary in a super tax. People unable to pay mortgages, homes repossessed, people living in their cars, children without a roof over their head. Food rationing. Violent crime up. Civil unrest.
Because that is where we will be in six months time if we don't get a handle on this.
That starts to scare me more than the headline mortality rate for this thing.
We are all going to be poorer after this I don't think that is in doubt and the economic crisis is very real. However how many deaths are we willing to pay as a price for no disruption. It wouldn't be just the old that died due to knock on effects of a swamped health service.
Personally I may need to tighten my belt after and I do not live in the lap of luxury in the first place but I think we need to take the hit
Jesus Christ, don't you ever get tired of amplifying this nonsense? Yes, Boris and Cummings won a majority 8 times the size of Dave's. It's done, time to get over it.
Pedantically, 80/12 ≠ 8
Excluding the Speaker, there were 330 Conservative MPs after the 2015 GE. Since the zero line for an official majority is 325, the calculation should be 330 - 325 = 5, then multiplying by 2 gives a majority of 10.
OK, fine we'll take away the Squeaker.
But then, we could also take away the three deputy speakers.
Plus, we could deduct the four Sinn Fein MPs.
So I now come to 329-313, which is a majority of 16.
So, let's hop blithely on to last year, where on the same logic we have 363-276.
It's proof that a "whitehall official" is waging an internal war at a point they should be focused on keeping the country as safe as can be
Where is a Whitehall official mentioned?
My reading is that at a private engagement (i.e. not govt business) Cummings is alleged to have said this by several people present ["those present"].
I think it's highly plausible that in his quest to be a misunderstood science genius, he would have said something that sounded a lot like that.
There was a buzzfeed article from yesterday with a similar line of attack which quoted a "whitehall official" [I assume a SpAd]. I'm working on the basis that they are a coordinated attack.
Times would require 2 or more people before they printed that. Buzzfeed I'm not sure.
The article also quotes a senior Tory "“Dominic himself had a conversion,” a senior Tory said. “He’s gone from ‘herd immunity and let the old people die’, to ‘let’s shut down the country and the economy."
That Tory might be one of the original 2, or he might be another figure.
Balance of probabilities very much that this is true.
If it’s not true, after this dies down, let him sue
It's proof that a "whitehall official" is waging an internal war at a point they should be focused on keeping the country as safe as can be
Where is a Whitehall official mentioned?
My reading is that at a private engagement (i.e. not govt business) Cummings is alleged to have said this by several people present ["those present"].
I think it's highly plausible that in his quest to be a misunderstood science genius, he would have said something that sounded a lot like that.
There was a buzzfeed article from yesterday with a similar line of attack which quoted a "whitehall official" [I assume a SpAd]. I'm working on the basis that they are a coordinated attack.
Times would require 2 or more people before they printed that. Buzzfeed I'm not sure.
The article also quotes a senior Tory "“Dominic himself had a conversion,” a senior Tory said. “He’s gone from ‘herd immunity and let the old people die’, to ‘let’s shut down the country and the economy."
That Tory might be one of the original 2, or he might be another figure.
Balance of probabilities very much that this is true.
I'm not disputing that it's quite possibly true.
I'm criticising the wankers who are selectively leaking to the press to damage Cummings at a time of national emergency.
Jesus Christ, don't you ever get tired of amplifying this nonsense? Yes, Boris and Cummings won a majority 8 times the size of Dave's. It's done, time to get over it.
Net gain of seats at the first general election
Cameron: +108
Johnson: +48
David Cameron did all the heavy lifting.
Or Johnson made the breakthrough that Cameron was unable to
To be fair to Cameron, if you look specifically at the difference in seats between Labour and the Tories, Cameron did more to improve his party's position (2010: +205; 2015: +50) than any postwar party leader apart from Attlee 1945 (+428) and Blair 1997 (+318). Even the Blessed Margaret managed only +112 (1979) and +118 (1983).
Boris 2019's +108 is still pretty damned good though, and spectacular in being the best postwar relative improvement for an incumbent government after Thatcher 1983.
It's proof that a "whitehall official" is waging an internal war at a point they should be focused on keeping the country as safe as can be
Where is a Whitehall official mentioned?
My reading is that at a private engagement (i.e. not govt business) Cummings is alleged to have said this by several people present ["those present"].
I think it's highly plausible that in his quest to be a misunderstood science genius, he would have said something that sounded a lot like that.
There was a buzzfeed article from yesterday with a similar line of attack which quoted a "whitehall official" [I assume a SpAd]. I'm working on the basis that they are a coordinated attack.
Times would require 2 or more people before they printed that. Buzzfeed I'm not sure.
The article also quotes a senior Tory "“Dominic himself had a conversion,” a senior Tory said. “He’s gone from ‘herd immunity and let the old people die’, to ‘let’s shut down the country and the economy."
That Tory might be one of the original 2, or he might be another figure.
Balance of probabilities very much that this is true.
I'm not disputing that it's quite possibly true.
I'm criticising the wankers who are selectively leaking to the press to damage Cummings at a time of national emergency.
Seems positively patriotic to me, Charles, I'm afraid. It's the equivalent of selectively briefing to damage Manny Shinwell during the 46-47 winter. The urgent need was to get rid of the useless twat.
Jesus Christ, don't you ever get tired of amplifying this nonsense? Yes, Boris and Cummings won a majority 8 times the size of Dave's. It's done, time to get over it.
Net gain of seats at the first general election
Cameron: +108
Johnson: +48
David Cameron did all the heavy lifting.
Or Johnson made the breakthrough that Cameron was unable to
To be fair to Cameron, if you look specifically at the difference in seats between Labour and the Tories, Cameron did more to improve his party's position (2010: +205; 2015: +50) than any postwar party leader apart from Attlee 1945 (+428) and Blair 1997 (+318). Even the Blessed Margaret managed only +112 (1979) and +118 (1983).
Boris 2019's +108 is still pretty damned good though, and spectacular in being the best postwar relative improvement for an incumbent government after Thatcher 1983.
Sure, but equally politics has the law of diminishing marginal returns.
The first 100 seats back from historically low levels are easier than the next 50.
It's all rather pointless though. They were both PM.
Genuine question. To my mind, the more successful the host is, the more successful the virus is going to be. Crudely, as the population of their hosts declines through their infection, viruses will have more trouble in spreading. So it is in the interest of the virus to be less deadly. Do viruses mutate/evolve that way and, if not, why not? I’ve been puzzling this and Google isn’t really helping.
It seems that many cases are linked to religious celebrations (South Korea / France / Germany), conferences (Boston) or hospitals/nursing homes (Hampshire / Spain). The thing in common will often be very poorly ventilated buildings, especially in winter. Using this logic, perhaps cities with subways will have an excess of cases?
What's curious is why there are no hotspots around schools or universities (at least not yet). Do children simply contract the virus and then kill it very rapidly? Otherwise you would at least expect their parents to be exposed in a localised manner and there's not evidence of that as yet I think.
Might this suggest that, moving forward, minimising the number of people working in poorly ventilated buildings or improving their ventilation could be a very good way of slowing the virus spreading? (Other measures will be needed of course, but the trend of mass spreading events is now becoming a little clearer perhaps?)
He who lives by the anonymous briefing dies by the anonymous briefing. I have no doubt Cummings is defamed here. The government response to the virus has been incompetent, but not actually malign.
I'm sure the vast majority of people in government are trying to do what's right. That doesn't mean that Cummings didn't say what is reported. It would be in character, and it is consistent with some of the strange things that were coming out the week before the government changed course.
It seems that many cases are linked to religious celebrations (South Korea / France / Germany), conferences (Boston) or hospitals/nursing homes (Hampshire / Spain). The thing in common will often be very poorly ventilated buildings, especially in winter. Using this logic, perhaps cities with subways will have an excess of cases?
What's curious is why there are no hotspots around schools or universities (at least not yet). Do children simply contract the virus and then kill it very rapidly? Otherwise you would at least expect their parents to be exposed in a localised manner and there's not evidence of that as yet I think.
Might this suggest that, moving forward, minimising the number of people working in poorly ventilated buildings or improving their ventilation could be a very good way of slowing the virus spreading? (Other measures will be needed of course, but the trend of mass spreading events is now becoming a little clearer perhaps?)
I have to say I am shocked we haven't had a massive blow-up on a university campus.
It seems that many cases are linked to religious celebrations (South Korea / France / Germany), conferences (Boston) or hospitals/nursing homes (Hampshire / Spain). The thing in common will often be very poorly ventilated buildings, especially in winter. Using this logic, perhaps cities with subways will have an excess of cases?
What's curious is why there are no hotspots around schools or universities (at least not yet). Do children simply contract the virus and then kill it very rapidly? Otherwise you would at least expect their parents to be exposed in a localised manner and there's not evidence of that as yet I think.
Might this suggest that, moving forward, minimising the number of people working in poorly ventilated buildings or improving their ventilation could be a very good way of slowing the virus spreading? (Other measures will be needed of course, but the trend of mass spreading events is now becoming a little clearer perhaps?)
I did wonder if the authorities should just pose as hopelessly attractive women and bulk message every available man under 40, telling them they'll get a special surprise if they stay in doors for two weeks...!
This is the problem, it is so easy done that you touch something they have and you won't even know it. But he might well have caught it from somebody / something else.
It is why I was saying earlier this morning, start from the presumption everybody and everything outside your house has been infected and work from there.
Yes that’s what I’m doing. If I go out I wear a mask and disposable gloves. Avoid any close interaction with anyone. Keep 2 metres away from friends etc and keep chats short.
Get home. Carefully remove gloves and mask. Wash hands. Repeat.
It’s not perfect - for that you’d need to isolate on your own in a bunker on a tiny island - but it’s the best I can do. If I don’t have immunity from my first suspected case (if I had it) then I expect to catch it at some point. Most of us will.
But the longer we can all avoid catching it, then the less the pressure on the NHS and the greater the chances of others surviving. Being selfish right now is actually the selfless thing to do. You’re helping.
And of course the later you catch it the greater the chance of better treatments, new anti virals etc etc etc
Try not to catch it! Try really hard.
Are you reusing masks by either washing them or changing the filter (as applicable), or treating each one as single use only? I have a moderate stock of both types, but so far am working on the basis that if I think a place is dangerous enough to require a mask, it's better to simply not go there at all...
If JD Sports and Sports Direct also follow suit. This is when the riots start.
We call all probably survive a few weeks without clothes shopping.
How about a 20% drop in GDP?
Millions unemployed, receiving government handouts. The rest paying 90% of their salary in a super tax. People unable to pay mortgages, homes repossessed, people living in their cars, children without a roof over their head. Food rationing. Violent crime up. Civil unrest.
Because that is where we will be in six months time if we don't get a handle on this.
That starts to scare me more than the headline mortality rate for this thing.
We are all going to be poorer after this I don't think that is in doubt and the economic crisis is very real. However how many deaths are we willing to pay as a price for no disruption. It wouldn't be just the old that died due to knock on effects of a swamped health service.
Personally I may need to tighten my belt after and I do not live in the lap of luxury in the first place but I think we need to take the hit
Tightening your belt is one thing, I could take a 20% pay cut for the next six months and not notice, I could take a 50% cut and still survive. But then again I am single and do not have a family of four to take care of. Many live paycheck to paycheck and have no savings at all.
But of course, for a great number of people, it won't be taking a 20% or even 50% pay cut, or tightening their belts. Yes, the government has agreed to pay salaries up to 80% for three months, but I do not think this will go far enough, I'm well aware that if demand remains depressed for the year my employer will have to downsize with the loss of god knows how many staff. And those people laid off (not just now, but in six months time) will have nothing, it is not a case of tightening their belts. That is the reality of any form of social distancing for a year or more.
I fear we are grossly underestimating the level of economic shock that is coming to the country this year. I agree with Black Rook that restrictions will gradually be lifted, but I fear the economic damage has already been done.
If JD Sports and Sports Direct also follow suit. This is when the riots start.
We call all probably survive a few weeks without clothes shopping.
How about a 20% drop in GDP?
Millions unemployed, receiving government handouts. The rest paying 90% of their salary in a super tax. People unable to pay mortgages, homes repossessed, people living in their cars, children without a roof over their head. Food rationing. Violent crime up. Civil unrest.
Because that is where we will be in six months time if we don't get a handle on this.
That starts to scare me more than the headline mortality rate for this thing.
We are all going to be poorer after this I don't think that is in doubt and the economic crisis is very real. However how many deaths are we willing to pay as a price for no disruption.
I don't think it's a matter of there being no disruption (there's already been plenty of disruption, of course.) It's a matter of how much disruption society can bear. Government will have to weigh that up against the number of lives that would be saved - just like it does all the time.
This is the point where I remind people that huge numbers of lives would be saved if only the use of motor vehicles by private citizens were abandoned (so that they became the exclusive preserve of the State, e.g. for the provision of ambulances and buses) and we were made to walk or cycle everywhere that could not be accessed by the (massively overloaded) public transport system. It would save many thousands of lives every year, but the costs in terms of personal freedom and especially to the economy would be ruinous.
Therefore, we write off the lives of road traffic accident victims for the sake of personal convenience and economic efficiency.
The principle of lives having a quantifiable value, rather than an infinite one, having been established, it's merely a matter of society determining what that value is.
If JD Sports and Sports Direct also follow suit. This is when the riots start.
We call all probably survive a few weeks without clothes shopping.
How about a 20% drop in GDP?
Millions unemployed, receiving government handouts. The rest paying 90% of their salary in a super tax. People unable to pay mortgages, homes repossessed, people living in their cars, children without a roof over their head. Food rationing. Violent crime up. Civil unrest.
Because that is where we will be in six months time if we don't get a handle on this.
That starts to scare me more than the headline mortality rate for this thing.
If you let virus transmission get out of control, as the UK government seems to have done, and as several other western governments have done, but as several Asian governments have NOT done, you not only cause a huge number of unnecessary deaths, you trash your economy more than you need to as well. The trick, as those Asian countries have shown, is to effectively stop transmission and then gradually ease off restrictions in a risk controlled way.
It seems that many cases are linked to religious celebrations (South Korea / France / Germany), conferences (Boston) or hospitals/nursing homes (Hampshire / Spain). The thing in common will often be very poorly ventilated buildings, especially in winter. Using this logic, perhaps cities with subways will have an excess of cases?
What's curious is why there are no hotspots around schools or universities (at least not yet). Do children simply contract the virus and then kill it very rapidly? Otherwise you would at least expect their parents to be exposed in a localised manner and there's not evidence of that as yet I think.
Might this suggest that, moving forward, minimising the number of people working in poorly ventilated buildings or improving their ventilation could be a very good way of slowing the virus spreading? (Other measures will be needed of course, but the trend of mass spreading events is now becoming a little clearer perhaps?)
I have to say I am shocked we haven't had a massive blow-up on a university campus.
We may well have done but the victims were only mildly symptomatic or wholly asymptomatic. Although there is a lot of recent evidence of under 30s being hospitalised more than we thought, it remains true that most people on campus are very low risk.
It seems that many cases are linked to religious celebrations (South Korea / France / Germany), conferences (Boston) or hospitals/nursing homes (Hampshire / Spain). The thing in common will often be very poorly ventilated buildings, especially in winter. Using this logic, perhaps cities with subways will have an excess of cases?
What's curious is why there are no hotspots around schools or universities (at least not yet). Do children simply contract the virus and then kill it very rapidly? Otherwise you would at least expect their parents to be exposed in a localised manner and there's not evidence of that as yet I think.
Might this suggest that, moving forward, minimising the number of people working in poorly ventilated buildings or improving their ventilation could be a very good way of slowing the virus spreading? (Other measures will be needed of course, but the trend of mass spreading events is now becoming a little clearer perhaps?)
I have to say I am shocked we haven't had a massive blow-up on a university campus.
We may well have done but the victims were only mildly symptomatic or wholly asymptomatic. Although there is a lot of recent evidence of under 30s being hospitalised more than we thought, it remains true that most people on campus are very low risk.
I think if it had, although the students would more than likely be ok, on a big campus there are 1000s of staff from academics to restaurant workers.
They are the equivalent of hosting a mega conference just hosted every single day. It seems improbable that wouldn't have resulted in a big blow up.
It's proof that a "whitehall official" is waging an internal war at a point they should be focused on keeping the country as safe as can be
Where is a Whitehall official mentioned?
My reading is that at a private engagement (i.e. not govt business) Cummings is alleged to have said this by several people present ["those present"].
I think it's highly plausible that in his quest to be a misunderstood science genius, he would have said something that sounded a lot like that.
There was a buzzfeed article from yesterday with a similar line of attack which quoted a "whitehall official" [I assume a SpAd]. I'm working on the basis that they are a coordinated attack.
Times would require 2 or more people before they printed that. Buzzfeed I'm not sure.
The article also quotes a senior Tory "“Dominic himself had a conversion,” a senior Tory said. “He’s gone from ‘herd immunity and let the old people die’, to ‘let’s shut down the country and the economy."
That Tory might be one of the original 2, or he might be another figure.
Balance of probabilities very much that this is true.
I'm not disputing that it's quite possibly true.
I'm criticising the wankers who are selectively leaking to the press to damage Cummings at a time of national emergency.
Seems positively patriotic to me, Charles, I'm afraid. It's the equivalent of selectively briefing to damage Manny Shinwell during the 46-47 winter. The urgent need was to get rid of the useless twat.
Indeed.
Normally I was be opposed to leaks, but we are talking about someone who is misanthropic, and who is unable to see that his own position is built on competence in electoral positioning and little else. Given the power he wields, his potential to do further damage is enormous. Leaking this, if true, was clearly in the national interest.
It's proof that a "whitehall official" is waging an internal war at a point they should be focused on keeping the country as safe as can be
Where is a Whitehall official mentioned?
My reading is that at a private engagement (i.e. not govt business) Cummings is alleged to have said this by several people present ["those present"].
I think it's highly plausible that in his quest to be a misunderstood science genius, he would have said something that sounded a lot like that.
There was a buzzfeed article from yesterday with a similar line of attack which quoted a "whitehall official" [I assume a SpAd]. I'm working on the basis that they are a coordinated attack.
Times would require 2 or more people before they printed that. Buzzfeed I'm not sure.
The article also quotes a senior Tory "“Dominic himself had a conversion,” a senior Tory said. “He’s gone from ‘herd immunity and let the old people die’, to ‘let’s shut down the country and the economy."
That Tory might be one of the original 2, or he might be another figure.
Balance of probabilities very much that this is true.
I'm not disputing that it's quite possibly true.
I'm criticising the wankers who are selectively leaking to the press to damage Cummings at a time of national emergency.
One persons wanker is another persons whistleblower re the wanker in chief.
We’re tracking real-time data to get an indication of how and when countries are locking down, and which Asian countries are getting back up and running.
He who lives by the anonymous briefing dies by the anonymous briefing. I have no doubt Cummings is defamed here. The government response to the virus has been incompetent, but not actually malign.
I'm sure the vast majority of people in government are trying to do what's right. That doesn't mean that Cummings didn't say what is reported. It would be in character, and it is consistent with some of the strange things that were coming out the week before the government changed course.
Cummings presumably believed that the herd immunity approach would result in fewer deaths overall. That's the context to his comment I think.
On a more serious note if my maths is any good Spain today:
Deaths up by 22%
Confirmed cases up 13%
We are told the next week or so are critical with the health service close to buckling under the strain. This is why I find threads like this so frustrating.
If lockdown works, the rate should start dropping pretty dramatically over the next couple of days.
If it doesn’t we’re all fucked anyway so it’s time to reopen the bars and party.
Thats the lowest % increase in new cases (according to wikipedia & world count) they've ever had. And thats 5 days on the trot the % of new cases has fallen.
If JD Sports and Sports Direct also follow suit. This is when the riots start.
We call all probably survive a few weeks without clothes shopping.
How about a 20% drop in GDP?
Millions unemployed, receiving government handouts. The rest paying 90% of their salary in a super tax. People unable to pay mortgages, homes repossessed, people living in their cars, children without a roof over their head. Food rationing. Violent crime up. Civil unrest.
Because that is where we will be in six months time if we don't get a handle on this.
That starts to scare me more than the headline mortality rate for this thing.
If you let virus transmission get out of control, as the UK government seems to have done, and as several other western governments have done, but as several Asian governments have NOT done, you not only cause a huge number of unnecessary deaths, you trash your economy more than you need to as well. The trick, as those Asian countries have shown, is to effectively stop transmission and then gradually ease off restrictions in a risk controlled way.
Wrong. The Asian countries have not provably succeeded - not yet. All the science says that when you relax the restrictions, the virus comes roaring back
Singapore has been the golden boy of managing the virus - and they do have an excellent record. But even there it is returning:
South Korea as well, still going at 100-150 new cases per day.
South Korea advises 15-day facilities suspension as experts prepare for 'long battle' against coronavirus
South Korea on Saturday (March 21) advised its public to close facilities and forgo socialising for 15 days, keeping to its policy of voluntary social distancing but warning of consequences if the rules are not followed to slow the coronavirus outbreak.
On topic. You are way over the top there Eagles, I can’t support this thread header at all.
If there was that much of a struggle over strategy going on we would have been aware of it by now, top source briefing press with one strategy, health minister u turning it in telly interview next day for example. Mistakes have been made, it’s wether they can be viewed as whole world and all opponents would have been caught on hop too and made those mistakes.
So much for social distancing! Fears lockdown is failing as Britons follow official coronavirus advice that it's safe to go for a Mother's Day stroll... by flocking to parks and beaches (like everyone else)
It seems that many cases are linked to religious celebrations (South Korea / France / Germany), conferences (Boston) or hospitals/nursing homes (Hampshire / Spain). The thing in common will often be very poorly ventilated buildings, especially in winter. Using this logic, perhaps cities with subways will have an excess of cases?
What's curious is why there are no hotspots around schools or universities (at least not yet). Do children simply contract the virus and then kill it very rapidly? Otherwise you would at least expect their parents to be exposed in a localised manner and there's not evidence of that as yet I think.
Might this suggest that, moving forward, minimising the number of people working in poorly ventilated buildings or improving their ventilation could be a very good way of slowing the virus spreading? (Other measures will be needed of course, but the trend of mass spreading events is now becoming a little clearer perhaps?)
I have to say I am shocked we haven't had a massive blow-up on a university campus.
We may well have done but the victims were only mildly symptomatic or wholly asymptomatic. Although there is a lot of recent evidence of under 30s being hospitalised more than we thought, it remains true that most people on campus are very low risk.
I think if it had, although the students would more than likely be ok, on a big campus there are 1000s of staff from academics to restaurant workers.
They are the equivalent of hosting a mega conference just hosted every single day. It seems improbable that wouldn't have resulted in a big blow up.
Those asymptomatic kids have just been sent home as the unis effectively close down.
So much for social distancing! Fears lockdown is failing as Britons follow official coronavirus advice that it's safe to go for a Mother's Day stroll... by flocking to parks and beaches (like everyone else)
Uh oh, it's in Gaza. Palestinian authorities report first two cases in Gaza
That is pretty seriously bad news. In Gaza, with no health system, no proper water supply and a high population density, it will go through the population faster than SeanT goes through a crate of high quality red.
You do wonder a bit how the carriers got it though. The official line is perhaps not as convincing as it might be. If it turns out that an Iranian contact of Hamas brought it in, that in itself might have some pretty severe repercussions.
So much for social distancing! Fears lockdown is failing as Britons follow official coronavirus advice that it's safe to go for a Mother's Day stroll... by flocking to parks and beaches (like everyone else)
Liverpool stewards are volunteering to help with crowd control and assisting the elderly with their shopping at supermarkets, the club’s chief executive has said.
Over the past few days images have been shared of chaotic scenes at supermarkets as long queues form for groceries, while a number of branches have introduced restrictions to prevent panic buying during the ongoing coronavirus outbreak.
Liverpool chief executive Peter Moore said his club’s stewards were on hand to help manage the situation.
“Message to supermarket managers here on Merseyside. Our stadium stewards here LFC are offering their time and expertise in volunteering to help with crowd control, queue management, parking control, assisting the elderly and infirm taking their groceries to their cars, etc,” Moore wrote on Twitter.
“They are truly the best in the business and would be delighted to help in whatever way you would deem appropriate (and safe) on your premises. Please DM me so that I can put you in contact. YNWA”
It is the latest gesture from football clubs, a number of whom have already donated food, pledged help with food banks, or donated the use of facilities to healthcare services in recent days.
Are these the same people who just helped with crowd control for the Madrid game? Because if you're elderly you really want to stay away fron those people. If possible stay away from Liverpool.
That will be 14 days ago in a few days.
It was a major misjudgement by Liverpool FC to have gone ahead with that game. The signs were clear for all to see at the time. Looking at what has happened in Madrid since it looks to have been a more reckless decision as each day passes.
My cousin, his wife and young baby have tested positive for coronavirus. This is all suddenly very real to me.
Hope it's all ok. FWIW (although you are probably not in the frame of mind) I assume from the fact they have a young baby they are in a low risk age group.
I don't think it's a matter of there being no disruption (there's already been plenty of disruption, of course.) It's a matter of how much disruption society can bear. Government will have to weigh that up against the number of lives that would be saved - just like it does all the time.
This is the point where I remind people that huge numbers of lives would be saved if only the use of motor vehicles by private citizens were abandoned (so that they became the exclusive preserve of the State, e.g. for the provision of ambulances and buses) and we were made to walk or cycle everywhere that could not be accessed by the (massively overloaded) public transport system. It would save many thousands of lives every year, but the costs in terms of personal freedom and especially to the economy would be ruinous.
Therefore, we write off the lives of road traffic accident victims for the sake of personal convenience and economic efficiency.
The principle of lives having a quantifiable value, rather than an infinite one, having been established, it's merely a matter of society determining what that value is.
If JD Sports and Sports Direct also follow suit. This is when the riots start.
We call all probably survive a few weeks without clothes shopping.
How about a 20% drop in GDP?
Millions unemployed, receiving government handouts. The rest paying 90% of their salary in a super tax. People unable to pay mortgages, homes repossessed, people living in their cars, children without a roof over their head. Food rationing. Violent crime up. Civil unrest.
Because that is where we will be in six months time if we don't get a handle on this.
That starts to scare me more than the headline mortality rate for this thing.
We are all going to be poorer after this I don't think that is in doubt and the economic crisis is very real. However how many deaths are we willing to pay as a price for no disruption.
I don't think it's a matter of there being no disruption (there's already been plenty of disruption, of course.) It's a matter of how much disruption society can bear. Government will have to weigh that up against the number of lives that would be saved - just like it does all the time.
This is the point where I remind people that huge numbers of lives would be saved if only the use of motor vehicles by private citizens were abandoned (so that they became the exclusive preserve of the State, e.g. for the provision of ambulances and buses) and we were made to walk or cycle everywhere that could not be accessed by the (massively overloaded) public transport system. It would save many thousands of lives every year, but the costs in terms of personal freedom and especially to the economy would be ruinous.
Therefore, we write off the lives of road traffic accident victims for the sake of personal convenience and economic efficiency.
The principle of lives having a quantifiable value, rather than an infinite one, having been established, it's merely a matter of society determining what that value is.
Yes I get what you are saying I even agree with it. However I am assuming that the government has enough data to suggest that the scale of death to keep the economy going as it was far exceeds what would be acceptable.
For example if QUALY put the value at less than the dole I think we would still give people the dole rather than have people starving in the streets for the same reason
Your post falsely suggests that there is something unusual about your graph - an unhelpful illusion and I am sorry to say it is either lazy or dishonest of you to do this.
So much for social distancing! Fears lockdown is failing as Britons follow official coronavirus advice that it's safe to go for a Mother's Day stroll... by flocking to parks and beaches (like everyone else)
So much for social distancing! Fears lockdown is failing as Britons follow official coronavirus advice that it's safe to go for a Mother's Day stroll... by flocking to parks and beaches (like everyone else)
Boris really needs to come out and say I warned people, but they aren't listening, therefore no more mr nice guy.
This is where being one of the most densely populated countries in the world is a big disadvantage. In most countries people could go for a walk in the park or at the beach without being too close together. No wonder some people are trying to relocate to northern Scotland.
On a more serious note if my maths is any good Spain today:
Deaths up by 22%
Confirmed cases up 13%
We are told the next week or so are critical with the health service close to buckling under the strain. This is why I find threads like this so frustrating.
If lockdown works, the rate should start dropping pretty dramatically over the next couple of days.
If it doesn’t we’re all fucked anyway so it’s time to reopen the bars and party.
Thats the lowest % increase in new cases (according to wikipedia & world count) they've ever had. And thats 5 days on the trot the % of new cases has fallen.
Uh oh, it's in Gaza. Palestinian authorities report first two cases in Gaza
That is pretty seriously bad news. In Gaza, with no health system, no proper water supply and a high population density, it will go through the population faster than SeanT goes through a crate of high quality red.
You do wonder a bit how the carriers got it though. The official line is perhaps not as convincing as it might be. If it turns out that an Iranian contact of Hamas brought it in, that in itself might have some pretty severe repercussions.
On topic. You are way over the top there Eagles, I can’t support this thread header at all.
If there was that much of a struggle over strategy going on we would have been aware of it by now, top source briefing press with one strategy, health minister u turning it in telly interview next day for example. Mistakes have been made, it’s wether they can be viewed as whole world and all opponents would have been caught on hop too and made those mistakes.
That's exactly what happened about 10 ago. Herd immunity was a goal according to some government sources, and this was firmly refuted by others (thankfully).
Sanity is currently prevailing, but the coming few weeks will be a strain on that. It will take that long to see the benefits of the recent measures, and therefore the recriminations against their economic harm will grow.
If JD Sports and Sports Direct also follow suit. This is when the riots start.
We call all probably survive a few weeks without clothes shopping.
How about a 20% drop in GDP?
Millions unemployed, receiving government handouts. The rest paying 90% of their salary in a super tax. People unable to pay mortgages, homes repossessed, people living in their cars, children without a roof over their head. Food rationing. Violent crime up. Civil unrest.
Because that is where we will be in six months time if we don't get a handle on this.
That starts to scare me more than the headline mortality rate for this thing.
If you let virus transmission get out of control, as the UK government seems to have done, and as several other western governments have done, but as several Asian governments have NOT done, you not only cause a huge number of unnecessary deaths, you trash your economy more than you need to as well. The trick, as those Asian countries have shown, is to effectively stop transmission and then gradually ease off restrictions in a risk controlled way.
Wrong. The Asian countries have not provably succeeded - not yet. All the science says that when you relax the restrictions, the virus comes roaring back
Singapore has been the golden boy of managing the virus - and they do have an excellent record. But even there it is returning:
If you accept herd immunity doesn't work as a policy, you have to focus - relentlessly - on keeping the number of transmissions down. The two effective ways of doing that are to keep people isolated from each other and to keep the uninfected population away from the infected population. Once you have reduced new transmissions and have a good (but it won't be perfect) handle on who is infected and who isn't you can allow the probably uninfected population to start interacting with each other and go about their business. You need constant monitoring. The degree of relaxation is a risk controlled trade-off.
To be clear, all available strategies have severe implications. Point is the implications of a strictly controlled transmission are less ghastly than a somewhat uncontrolled one.
Uh oh, it's in Gaza. Palestinian authorities report first two cases in Gaza
That is pretty seriously bad news. In Gaza, with no health system, no proper water supply and a high population density, it will go through the population faster than SeanT goes through a crate of high quality red.
You do wonder a bit how the carriers got it though. The official line is perhaps not as convincing as it might be. If it turns out that an Iranian contact of Hamas brought it in, that in itself might have some pretty severe repercussions.
What's the official line?
Officially, two men who had visited Pakistan and returned via Egypt showed symptoms immediately after they crossed the border and were quarantined.
That's not impossible. It requires a few things to have happened which could have happened but are not perhaps terribly likely - such as them being in Egypt for some time without symptoms developing and then the symptoms miraculously appearing just as they get to the border.
If JD Sports and Sports Direct also follow suit. This is when the riots start.
We call all probably survive a few weeks without clothes shopping.
How about a 20% drop in GDP?
Millions unemployed, receiving government handouts. The rest paying 90% of their salary in a super tax. People unable to pay mortgages, homes repossessed, people living in their cars, children without a roof over their head. Food rationing. Violent crime up. Civil unrest.
Because that is where we will be in six months time if we don't get a handle on this.
That starts to scare me more than the headline mortality rate for this thing.
We are all going to be poorer after this I don't think that is in doubt and the economic crisis is very real. However how many deaths are we willing to pay as a price for no disruption.
I don't think it's a matter of there being no disruption (there's already been plenty of disruption, of course.) It's a matter of how much disruption society can bear. Government will have to weigh that up against the number of lives that would be saved - just like it does all the time.
This is the point where I remind people that huge numbers of lives would be saved if only the use of motor vehicles by private citizens were abandoned (so that they became the exclusive preserve of the State, e.g. for the provision of ambulances and buses) and we were made to walk or cycle everywhere that could not be accessed by the (massively overloaded) public transport system. It would save many thousands of lives every year, but the costs in terms of personal freedom and especially to the economy would be ruinous.
Therefore, we write off the lives of road traffic accident victims for the sake of personal convenience and economic efficiency.
The principle of lives having a quantifiable value, rather than an infinite one, having been established, it's merely a matter of society determining what that value is.
Yes I get what you are saying I even agree with it. However I am assuming that the government has enough data to suggest that the scale of death to keep the economy going as it was far exceeds what would be acceptable.
For example if QUALY put the value at less than the dole I think we would still give people the dole rather than have people starving in the streets for the same reason
I thought the model said 750,000 deaths via herd immunity
20,000 via social isolation.
So Cummings few turned out to be an extra 730,000 pensioners and vulnerables
So much for social distancing! Fears lockdown is failing as Britons follow official coronavirus advice that it's safe to go for a Mother's Day stroll... by flocking to parks and beaches (like everyone else)
Boris really needs to come out and say I warned people, but they aren't listening, therefore no more mr nice guy.
This is where being one of the most densely populated countries in the world is a big disadvantage. In most countries people could go for a walk in the park or at the beach without being too close together. No wonder some people are trying to relocate in northern Scotland.
I do have sympathies with people going to parks, beaches, the mountains. Exercise is essential for physical and mental health, likewise fresh air and sunshine
I don’t know how you balance that with the need for social distancing. Maybe ration it?!
I have no sympathy with people shopping in flower markets, crowding into fish and chip shops. Stupid. Close them.
As the days get longer and weather gets better, I can foresee disturbances if the police try to force people back inside their homes. It is clear a significant proportion of people aren't willing to listen or accept even minor restrictions.
And the egg-heads say 90% of people need to adhere to this for it to work.
Is it just me, or is the headline to the chart wrong? It is dropping in the UK.
Yes, albeit less (in percentage terms) than the other countries aside from Germany.
Mind you the scales on the plots are quite inconsistent, making comparison more difficult. But it's clear that the change in the UK is much less than the change in Italy, for example.
If JD Sports and Sports Direct also follow suit. This is when the riots start.
We call all probably survive a few weeks without clothes shopping.
How about a 20% drop in GDP?
Millions unemployed, receiving government handouts. The rest paying 90% of their salary in a super tax. People unable to pay mortgages, homes repossessed, people living in their cars, children without a roof over their head. Food rationing. Violent crime up. Civil unrest.
Because that is where we will be in six months time if we don't get a handle on this.
That starts to scare me more than the headline mortality rate for this thing.
We are all going to be poorer after this I don't think that is in doubt and the economic crisis is very real. However how many deaths are we willing to pay as a price for no disruption.
I don't think it's a matter of there being no disruption (there's already been plenty of disruption, of course.) It's a matter of how much disruption society can bear. Government will have to weigh that up against the number of lives that would be saved - just like it does all the time.
This is the point where I remind people that huge numbers of lives would be saved if only the use of motor vehicles by private citizens were abandoned (so that they became the exclusive preserve of the State, e.g. for the provision of ambulances and buses) and we were made to walk or cycle everywhere that could not be accessed by the (massively overloaded) public transport system. It would save many thousands of lives every year, but the costs in terms of personal freedom and especially to the economy would be ruinous.
Therefore, we write off the lives of road traffic accident victims for the sake of personal convenience and economic efficiency.
The principle of lives having a quantifiable value, rather than an infinite one, having been established, it's merely a matter of society determining what that value is.
Yes I get what you are saying I even agree with it. However I am assuming that the government has enough data to suggest that the scale of death to keep the economy going as it was far exceeds what would be acceptable.
For example if QUALY put the value at less than the dole I think we would still give people the dole rather than have people starving in the streets for the same reason
I thought the model said 750,000 deaths via herd immunity
20,000 via social isolation.
So Cummings few turned out to be an extra 730,000 pensioners and vulnerables
From a theoretical perspective, herd immunity optimises the outcomes. But it's brutal and hard to explain and depends on luck and discipline.
I suspect that while they had stamped on Brighton and a few other early clusters, the virus got in through asymptomatic carriers.
When they discovered it had broken through then the number of expected deaths moved quickly from 100,000 to 250,000 with significant potential to be much larger.
This threatened the ability of the system to cater to the country's health needs.
Hence they accelerated the implementation of policy options.
If JD Sports and Sports Direct also follow suit. This is when the riots start.
We call all probably survive a few weeks without clothes shopping.
How about a 20% drop in GDP?
Millions unemployed, receiving government handouts. The rest paying 90% of their salary in a super tax. People unable to pay mortgages, homes repossessed, people living in their cars, children without a roof over their head. Food rationing. Violent crime up. Civil unrest.
Because that is where we will be in six months time if we don't get a handle on this.
That starts to scare me more than the headline mortality rate for this thing.
We are all going to be poorer after this I don't think that is in doubt and the economic crisis is very real. However how many deaths are we willing to pay as a price for no disruption.
I don't think it's a matter of there being no disruption (there's already been plenty of disruption, of course.) It's a matter of how much disruption society can bear. Government will have to weigh that up against the number of lives that would be saved - just like it does all the time.
This is the point where I remind people that huge numbers of lives would be saved if only the use of motor vehicles by private citizens were abandoned (so that they became the exclusive preserve of the State, e.g. for the provision of ambulances and buses) and we were made to walk or cycle everywhere that could not be accessed by the (massively overloaded) public transport system. It would save many thousands of lives every year, but the costs in terms of personal freedom and especially to the economy would be ruinous.
Therefore, we write off the lives of road traffic accident victims for the sake of personal convenience and economic efficiency.
The principle of lives having a quantifiable value, rather than an infinite one, having been established, it's merely a matter of society determining what that value is.
Yes I get what you are saying I even agree with it. However I am assuming that the government has enough data to suggest that the scale of death to keep the economy going as it was far exceeds what would be acceptable.
For example if QUALY put the value at less than the dole I think we would still give people the dole rather than have people starving in the streets for the same reason
I thought the model said 750,000 deaths via herd immunity
20,000 via social isolation.
So Cummings few turned out to be an extra 730,000 pensioners and vulnerables
From a theoretical perspective, herd immunity optimises the outcomes. But it's brutal and hard to explain and depends on luck and discipline.
I suspect that while they had stamped on Brighton and a few other early clusters, the virus got in through asymptomatic carriers.
When they discovered it had broken through then the number of expected deaths moved quickly from 100,000 to 250,000 with significant potential to be much larger.
This threatened the ability of the system to cater to the country's health needs.
Hence they accelerated the implementation of policy options.
The big adjustment in the model was that the new data from Italy showed that the number of hospitalizations required would be double the original estimate based on the figures from Asia.
Dominic Cummings is not a bit rubbish. Dominic Cummings is a lot rubbish. He did Cameron a lot of harm and is now doing the Tory Party a lot of harm. I wish the Party would now, very publicly, get rid of him. 0r do they want Keir Starmer as PM?
If JD Sports and Sports Direct also follow suit. This is when the riots start.
We call all probably survive a few weeks without clothes shopping.
How about a 20% drop in GDP?
Millions unemployed, receiving government handouts. The rest paying 90% of their salary in a super tax. People unable to pay mortgages, homes repossessed, people living in their cars, children without a roof over their head. Food rationing. Violent crime up. Civil unrest.
Because that is where we will be in six months time if we don't get a handle on this.
That starts to scare me more than the headline mortality rate for this thing.
We are all going to be poorer after this I don't think that is in doubt and the economic crisis is very real. However how many deaths are we willing to pay as a price for no disruption.
I don't think it's a matter of there being no disruption (there's already been plenty of disruption, of course.) It's a matter of how much disruption society can bear. Government will have to weigh that up against the number of lives that would be saved - just like it does all the time.
This is the point where I remind people that huge numbers of lives would be saved if only the use of motor vehicles by private citizens were abandoned (so that they became the exclusive preserve of the State, e.g. for the provision of ambulances and buses) and we were made to walk or cycle everywhere that could not be accessed by the (massively overloaded) public transport system. It would save many thousands of lives every year, but the costs in terms of personal freedom and especially to the economy would be ruinous.
Therefore, we write off the lives of road traffic accident victims for the sake of personal convenience and economic efficiency.
The principle of lives having a quantifiable value, rather than an infinite one, having been established, it's merely a matter of society determining what that value is.
Yes I get what you are saying I even agree with it. However I am assuming that the government has enough data to suggest that the scale of death to keep the economy going as it was far exceeds what would be acceptable.
For example if QUALY put the value at less than the dole I think we would still give people the dole rather than have people starving in the streets for the same reason
I imagine the government has their own projections and they are (usually) very good ones.
However at every step of the way the government has underestimated the severity of the situation, from being slow to implement social distancing to having to hurry out an even more drastic economic rescue package barely a week after the budget.
By my calculation I reckon aggregate demand in the economy is probably going to fall around 20% this year. Minimum. That's 20% fewer workers in the Sports Direct warehouse, the Nissan Factory, etc and so on. And many more mouths for the government and the taxpayer to feed.
I think the risks caused by mass unemployment and company downsizing are being grossly undervalued by the government at the moment.
Jesus Christ, don't you ever get tired of amplifying this nonsense? Yes, Boris and Cummings won a majority 8 times the size of Dave's. It's done, time to get over it.
The size of their majority has no bearing whatsoever on how they are handling this crisis but I think Johnson is doing OK.
The biggest question mark hangs over the initial herd-immunity strategy. If that strategy does prove to have been a costly mistake then there is no way on earth that accountability for that decision should be swept under the carpet.
I'd hate to be the ones taking the decisions because there are no easy or certain answers and I have the greatest sympathy for everyone in the firing line. It may well be that herd-immunity was the consensus at the time but if the sort of attitude that Cummings is alleged to have re OAPs was a part of that decision then we deserve to know that.
If JD Sports and Sports Direct also follow suit. This is when the riots start.
We call all probably survive a few weeks without clothes shopping.
How about a 20% drop in GDP?
Millions unemployed, receiving government handouts. The rest paying 90% of their salary in a super tax. People unable to pay mortgages, homes repossessed, people living in their cars, children without a roof over their head. Food rationing. Violent crime up. Civil unrest.
Because that is where we will be in six months time if we don't get a handle on this.
That starts to scare me more than the headline mortality rate for this thing.
We are all going to be poorer after this I don't think that is in doubt and the economic crisis is very real. However how many deaths are we willing to pay as a price for no disruption.
I don't think it's a matter of there being no disruption (there's already been plenty of disruption, of course.) It's a matter of how much disruption society can bear. Government will have to weigh that up against the number of lives that would be saved - just like it does all the time.
This is the point where I remind people that huge numbers of lives would be saved if only the use of motor vehicles by private citizens were abandoned (so that they became the exclusive preserve of the State, e.g. for the provision of ambulances and buses) and we were made to walk or cycle everywhere that could not be accessed by the (massively overloaded) public transport system. It would save many thousands of lives every year, but the costs in terms of personal freedom and especially to the economy would be ruinous.
Therefore, we write off the lives of road traffic accident victims for the sake of personal convenience and economic efficiency.
The principle of lives having a quantifiable value, rather than an infinite one, having been established, it's merely a matter of society determining what that value is.
Yes I get what you are saying I even agree with it. However I am assuming that the government has enough data to suggest that the scale of death to keep the economy going as it was far exceeds what would be acceptable.
For example if QUALY put the value at less than the dole I think we would still give people the dole rather than have people starving in the streets for the same reason
I thought the model said 750,000 deaths via herd immunity
20,000 via social isolation.
So Cummings few turned out to be an extra 730,000 pensioners and vulnerables
It was 250,000. And everyone agrees that 20,000 is very optimistic. If we can keep it to that we will have done exceptionally well.
As I may have mentioned last night, I’ve been in touch with a friend who knows a very senior NHS bod and she - the NHS expert - is personally expecting 300,000 deaths.
Genuine question. To my mind, the more successful the host is, the more successful the virus is going to be. Crudely, as the population of their hosts declines through their infection, viruses will have more trouble in spreading. So it is in the interest of the virus to be less deadly. Do viruses mutate/evolve that way and, if not, why not? I’ve been puzzling this and Google isn’t really helping.
I am not a scientist but I have read in several places that in general viruses mutate into less malignant forms, for the reasons you say. They have a better chance of succeeding if the host survives.
It is very, very complicated. For a start the classic examples are usual highly virulent diseases, and what is usually not mentioned so frequently is that the least virulent strains of them can also get out-competed. The pressures on viruses that aren't highly virulent like this one are far less severe.
In most textbooks, the story stops there [Less virulent strains becoming dominant]. But the virus continued to evolve. From the late 1970s, reports began to accumulate that MYXV was becoming more lethal again. The picture was not simple, partly because the sampling was not as extensive as it had been during Fenner’s studies, and partly because there was substantial regional variation. Fascinated by the possibility that the textbook evolutionary trajectory of virulence had reversed, we, together with Eddie Holmes of the University of Sydney and Penn State University’s Isabella Cattadori, have been using Fenner’s common garden protocols to find out what happened.
To our great surprise, the most virulent of the isolates harvested from the field and frozen in the 1990s caused our susceptible laboratory rabbits to develop a highly lethal immune collapse syndrome akin to septic shock. This disease syndrome had never been seen before. Rabbits die at about the same rate as those infected with the ancestral virus, but they do so without developing classical myxomatosis. Instead, death is associated with a form of toxic or septic shock characterized by an almost complete absence of cellular inflammatory responses, allowing normally well-controlled bacteria to run rampant in the test rabbits.
Does this sound familiar to anyone?
In other words this virus may be SARS fighting back.
So much for social distancing! Fears lockdown is failing as Britons follow official coronavirus advice that it's safe to go for a Mother's Day stroll... by flocking to parks and beaches (like everyone else)
I'm just trying to stay in good shape for the virus' inevitable arrival. Sub 50 10k off the bucket list today anyway.
Well done. That's about where I was last summer but I've put a bit of weight on since then. Was planning to up my running again in June for the Loch Ness Marathon in October, but I'm not too optimistic that it will go ahead....
Startling how much higher France's normal energy use is than the similarly sized UK's. Even after lock-down, it's still higher than the UK's.
I'm guessing they probably use more aircon and electric heating, as well as electric cookers, than we do, which would show up on electricity consumption. Remember how much UK household energy is natural gas.
On topic - is this the same source Pesto used for him "Chancellor will do nothing" story?
On the social distancing - many more businesses closed locally today. Nearly all coffee shops have gone. Food shops seem better stocked.
From talking (via email etc) to people I know - it seems that the 80% wages thing has convinced alot of companies to shut up shop for the duration in a controlled manner. They forsee it being much easier to revive a business when all you have to do it is phone a bunch of people to come into the office, rather than try to (re)-hire, build teams etc.
Surely you mean, 'a fuck the many not the few man?'
Although, in fairness, that could be said equally of Johnson and indeed Corbyn...
With Corbyn we will never know. He could be either the greatest or the worst PM we never had. My sense is something in between. Probably the most 'slightly above average but seemed better than that because of such low expectations' PM we never had.
Startling how much higher France's normal energy use is than the similarly sized UK's. Even after lock-down, it's still higher than the UK's.
I'm guessing they probably use more aircon and electric heating, as well as electric cookers, than we do, which would show up on electricity consumption. Remember how much UK household energy is natural gas.
I think there's more of an industrial element, but I'll have a look later.
Comments
The delivery system requires a factory reset: all the existing orders to be scrubbed and then slots made available to priority customers and no-one else.
Buzzfeed I'm not sure.
The article also quotes a senior Tory "“Dominic himself had a conversion,” a senior Tory said. “He’s gone from ‘herd immunity and let the old people die’, to ‘let’s shut down the country and the economy."
That Tory might be one of the original 2, or he might be another figure.
Balance of probabilities very much that this is true.
It is why I was saying earlier this morning, start from the presumption everybody and everything outside your house has been infected and work from there.
Personally I may need to tighten my belt after and I do not live in the lap of luxury in the first place but I think we need to take the hit
But then, we could also take away the three deputy speakers.
Plus, we could deduct the four Sinn Fein MPs.
So I now come to 329-313, which is a majority of 16.
So, let's hop blithely on to last year, where on the same logic we have 363-276.
Again, 87/16 does not equal 10.
Just move it to 5pm.
I'm criticising the wankers who are selectively leaking to the press to damage Cummings at a time of national emergency.
https://twitter.com/RoyalFreeNHS/status/1241622927864401920?s=20
Boris 2019's +108 is still pretty damned good though, and spectacular in being the best postwar relative improvement for an incumbent government after Thatcher 1983.
The first 100 seats back from historically low levels are easier than the next 50.
It's all rather pointless though. They were both PM.
What's curious is why there are no hotspots around schools or universities (at least not yet). Do children simply contract the virus and then kill it very rapidly? Otherwise you would at least expect their parents to be exposed in a localised manner and there's not evidence of that as yet I think.
Might this suggest that, moving forward, minimising the number of people working in poorly ventilated buildings or improving their ventilation could be a very good way of slowing the virus spreading? (Other measures will be needed of course, but the trend of mass spreading events is now becoming a little clearer perhaps?)
TINDER WILL LET YOU SWIPE AROUND THE GLOBE FOR FREE WHILE SOCIAL DISTANCING
https://www.newsweek.com/tinder-passport-swipe-other-cities-free-social-distancing-1493495
But of course, for a great number of people, it won't be taking a 20% or even 50% pay cut, or tightening their belts. Yes, the government has agreed to pay salaries up to 80% for three months, but I do not think this will go far enough, I'm well aware that if demand remains depressed for the year my employer will have to downsize with the loss of god knows how many staff. And those people laid off (not just now, but in six months time) will have nothing, it is not a case of tightening their belts. That is the reality of any form of social distancing for a year or more.
I fear we are grossly underestimating the level of economic shock that is coming to the country this year. I agree with Black Rook that restrictions will gradually be lifted, but I fear the economic damage has already been done.
This is the point where I remind people that huge numbers of lives would be saved if only the use of motor vehicles by private citizens were abandoned (so that they became the exclusive preserve of the State, e.g. for the provision of ambulances and buses) and we were made to walk or cycle everywhere that could not be accessed by the (massively overloaded) public transport system. It would save many thousands of lives every year, but the costs in terms of personal freedom and especially to the economy would be ruinous.
Therefore, we write off the lives of road traffic accident victims for the sake of personal convenience and economic efficiency.
The principle of lives having a quantifiable value, rather than an infinite one, having been established, it's merely a matter of society determining what that value is.
But you don't even know whether it was a leaker, or just a private citizen who confirmed the story to journalists.
I'm just trying to stay in good shape for the virus' inevitable arrival. Sub 50 10k off the bucket list today anyway.
They are the equivalent of hosting a mega conference just hosted every single day. It seems improbable that wouldn't have resulted in a big blow up.
Normally I was be opposed to leaks, but we are talking about someone who is misanthropic, and who is unable to see that his own position is built on competence in electoral positioning and little else. Given the power he wields, his potential to do further damage is enormous. Leaking this, if true, was clearly in the national interest.
https://www.ft.com/content/d184fa0a-6904-11ea-800d-da70cff6e4d3
South Korea advises 15-day facilities suspension as experts prepare for 'long battle' against coronavirus
South Korea on Saturday (March 21) advised its public to close facilities and forgo socialising for 15 days, keeping to its policy of voluntary social distancing but warning of consequences if the rules are not followed to slow the coronavirus outbreak.
https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/south-korea-reports-147-new-coronavirus-cases-total-8799
If there was that much of a struggle over strategy going on we would have been aware of it by now, top source briefing press with one strategy, health minister u turning it in telly interview next day for example. Mistakes have been made, it’s wether they can be viewed as whole world and all opponents would have been caught on hop too and made those mistakes.
So much for social distancing! Fears lockdown is failing as Britons follow official coronavirus advice that it's safe to go for a Mother's Day stroll... by flocking to parks and beaches (like everyone else)
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8138439/Public-urged-away-UK-holiday-destinations-limit-Covid-19-spread.html
Boris really needs to come out and say I warned people, but they aren't listening, therefore no more mr nice guy.
But "private engagement" in this context isn't a random party. It's probably a paid for event for Tory Party supporters.
And following as quickly as it did from yesterday's attack this appears to me to be coordinated.
But sure, it could just be a coincidence.
You do wonder a bit how the carriers got it though. The official line is perhaps not as convincing as it might be. If it turns out that an Iranian contact of Hamas brought it in, that in itself might have some pretty severe repercussions.
I have had this conversation with my wifes sisters family.
Take this seriously, people will die or be seriously ill because of your actions
Apparently I am making a fuss........
I hope the Israelis do the right thing.
We need Benni in power!
Yes I get what you are saying I even agree with it. However I am assuming that the government has enough data to suggest that the scale of death to keep the economy going as it was far exceeds what would be acceptable.
For example if QUALY put the value at less than the dole I think we would still give people the dole rather than have people starving in the streets for the same reason
Your post falsely suggests that there is something unusual about your graph - an unhelpful illusion and I am sorry to say it is either lazy or dishonest of you to do this.
Especially because I recall that in a post a while back you said you weighed 28 stone?
Sanity is currently prevailing, but the coming few weeks will be a strain on that. It will take that long to see the benefits of the recent measures, and therefore the recriminations against their economic harm will grow.
If you accept herd immunity doesn't work as a policy, you have to focus - relentlessly - on keeping the number of transmissions down. The two effective ways of doing that are to keep people isolated from each other and to keep the uninfected population away from the infected population. Once you have reduced new transmissions and have a good (but it won't be perfect) handle on who is infected and who isn't you can allow the probably uninfected population to start interacting with each other and go about their business. You need constant monitoring. The degree of relaxation is a risk controlled trade-off.
To be clear, all available strategies have severe implications. Point is the implications of a strictly controlled transmission are less ghastly than a somewhat uncontrolled one.
That's not impossible. It requires a few things to have happened which could have happened but are not perhaps terribly likely - such as them being in Egypt for some time without symptoms developing and then the symptoms miraculously appearing just as they get to the border.
But I can easily think of other explanations.
20,000 via social isolation.
So Cummings few turned out to be an extra 730,000 pensioners and vulnerables
And the egg-heads say 90% of people need to adhere to this for it to work.
Mind you the scales on the plots are quite inconsistent, making comparison more difficult. But it's clear that the change in the UK is much less than the change in Italy, for example.
Would a thunk
I suspect that while they had stamped on Brighton and a few other early clusters, the virus got in through asymptomatic carriers.
When they discovered it had broken through then the number of expected deaths moved quickly from 100,000 to 250,000 with significant potential to be much larger.
This threatened the ability of the system to cater to the country's health needs.
Hence they accelerated the implementation of policy options.
However at every step of the way the government has underestimated the severity of the situation, from being slow to implement social distancing to having to hurry out an even more drastic economic rescue package barely a week after the budget.
By my calculation I reckon aggregate demand in the economy is probably going to fall around 20% this year. Minimum. That's 20% fewer workers in the Sports Direct warehouse, the Nissan Factory, etc and so on. And many more mouths for the government and the taxpayer to feed.
I think the risks caused by mass unemployment and company downsizing are being grossly undervalued by the government at the moment.
That is my fear - I hope I am proven wrong.
The biggest question mark hangs over the initial herd-immunity strategy. If that strategy does prove to have been a costly mistake then there is no way on earth that accountability for that decision should be swept under the carpet.
I'd hate to be the ones taking the decisions because there are no easy or certain answers and I have the greatest sympathy for everyone in the firing line. It may well be that herd-immunity was the consensus at the time but if the sort of attitude that Cummings is alleged to have re OAPs was a part of that decision then we deserve to know that.
Let's hope they are wrong.
Although, in fairness, that could be said equally of Johnson and indeed Corbyn...
Also,
https://www.the-scientist.com/features/do-pathogens-gain-virulence-as-hosts-become-more-resistant-30219
To our great surprise, the most virulent of the isolates harvested from the field and frozen in the 1990s caused our susceptible laboratory rabbits to develop a highly lethal immune collapse syndrome akin to septic shock. This disease syndrome had never been seen before. Rabbits die at about the same rate as those infected with the ancestral virus, but they do so without developing classical myxomatosis. Instead, death is associated with a form of toxic or septic shock characterized by an almost complete absence of cellular inflammatory responses, allowing normally well-controlled bacteria to run rampant in the test rabbits.
Does this sound familiar to anyone?
In other words this virus may be SARS fighting back.
We need the ventilators!!
On the social distancing - many more businesses closed locally today. Nearly all coffee shops have gone. Food shops seem better stocked.
From talking (via email etc) to people I know - it seems that the 80% wages thing has convinced alot of companies to shut up shop for the duration in a controlled manner. They forsee it being much easier to revive a business when all you have to do it is phone a bunch of people to come into the office, rather than try to (re)-hire, build teams etc.
https://twitter.com/REWearmouth/status/1241742660790104066
The clown in Downing Street is causing unnecessary infections
'Senator, if it sounded clear, you've almost certainly misunderstood me.'
What is confusing about
Stay home.
Save Lives.
Protect our NHS.