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SystemSystem Posts: 12,636
edited March 2020 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Starmer now a 94% chance on Betfair to be the next LAB leader

With less than a month to go until the LAB leadership contest ends Starmer moves up to a 94% chance on Betfair  – odds that suggest that he’s a near certainty. 

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,337
    First like Starmer.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,630
    First like Starmer!
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 52,660
    3rd like RLB?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,288
    edited March 2020
    94% chance? What a loser.
  • MonkeysMonkeys Posts: 813
    How long does he last before Labour work out the electorate remember him from the last parliament?
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    "His arrival at the dispatch box is probably going to mark the end of Johnson’s honeymoon."

    Nobody will notice. We'll all be too busy watching the body count climb.

    Actually, there's already been talk of Parliament being suspended for a few weeks or months when the epidemic really takes off, so that all the politicians don't get it all at once and then help to spread it around the country. We may have to wait a while for his debut. What a shame.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1235690480463200256
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    Monkeys

    Black Rock

    A couple of particularly ungracious partisan posts to kick off the thread.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,288
    Assuming they go ahead Starmer is well placed for the local elections. That leaked Labour document predicts pretty massive losses, and if it happens it's mostly Corbyn's fault and if it doesn't Starmer's an instant winner.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,630
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    First like Starmer.

    Boo hiss - inside knowledge!
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    RLB is out for the count, like Joe Biden.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 23,261
    A Starmer bounce ahead of the May locals (if they aren't cancelled) would be most welcome.
  • sladeslade Posts: 2,211
    SandyRentool said:

    A Starmer bounce ahead of the May locals (if they aren't cancelled) would be most welcome.

    I was at a party meeting tonight and the view is that the local elections will have to be cancelled in the next two weeks to avoid a whole series of issues if nominations go ahead and then they have to be cancelled.
  • isamisam Posts: 42,328
    In my local Tesco the shelf where the anti bacterial hand washes usually were was completely empty! Above were some other products, presumably not anti bacterial, and five of these...




    The words ‘anti bacterial’ are barely decipherable, in mint green below the leaf symbol. I took 3 and left 2 for some other shrewdie 😊
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,288
    Jonathan said:

    Boris held his election at about the only moment he could have held it. Swinson has much to answer for.

    It certainly does put the pettiness of the arguments about it being 9, 10 or 12 December into perspective. Even compared to other Brexit issues what wasted effort that was.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 23,261
    I would imagine that the vast majority of people who are going to vote have already cast their ballots. The process is a fortnight too long.

    And as others have suggested, the special conference (which isn't a conference) may well get chopped because of the Virus.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,325
    Jonathan said:

    Boris held his election at about the only moment he could have held it. Swinson has much to answer for.

    as does Corbyn.
  • MonkeysMonkeys Posts: 813
    https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1235663235573067777
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    SandyRentool said:

    I would imagine that the vast majority of people who are going to vote have already cast their ballots. The process is a fortnight too long.

    And as others have suggested, the special conference (which isn't a conference) may well get chopped because of the Virus.

    Allowing getting on for six weeks for the postal ballot stage was absolute. It was though the whole process has been designed to keep double general election loser Corbyn in office for a few weeks more.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 52,660
    https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1235695655693307904?s=09
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    isam said:


    ...
    The words ‘anti bacterial’ are barely decipherable, in mint green below the leaf symbol. I took 3 and left 2 for some other shrewdie 😊

    Some other shrewdie who doesn't know the difference between a virus and a bacterium?
  • isamisam Posts: 42,328
    MikeSmithson said:

    SandyRentool said:

    I would imagine that the vast majority of people who are going to vote have already cast their ballots. The process is a fortnight too long.

    And as others have suggested, the special conference (which isn't a conference) may well get chopped because of the Virus.

    Allowing getting on for six weeks for the postal ballot stage was absolute. It was though the whole process has been designed to keep double general election loser Corbyn in office for a few weeks more.
    The time since the election should have been used to give the leading candidates actual time in the role, like a practical interview and opportunity for members to see how they deal with leadership trials

    What’s the point of Corbyn doing PMQs, visits to flooded areas, TV interviews, anything?
  • GideonWiseGideonWise Posts: 1,123
    Foxy said:

    https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1235695655693307904?s=09

    https://youtu.be/ycrqXJYf1SU

    Nice little documentary there on Covid.

    When the history books are written about the British response I think the conclusion will be: "Donkeys led by lions"

  • isamisam Posts: 42,328
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    isam said:


    ...
    The words ‘anti bacterial’ are barely decipherable, in mint green below the leaf symbol. I took 3 and left 2 for some other shrewdie 😊

    Some other shrewdie who doesn't know the difference between a virus and a bacterium?
    Blimey! Why are the shelves all empty?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    On topic: Starmer will be OK. Almost certainly he'll be a better Labour leader than his three immediate predecessors, although that's damning with faint praise given that they ran the gamut from the dismal to the disastrous. All the same, expectations are running too high; at the dispatch box, he'll be fine, but he won't be able by his own talents to make much impact: it's Boris who will destroy the Boris government, not Sir Keir.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,411
    Monkeys said:

    How long does he last before Labour work out the electorate remember him from the last parliament?

    No they wont. The average voter can barely name the PM and the Chancellor.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 6,031
    “There is no circumstance where we will extend the Transition period”.

    A fair enough comment at the time I suppose.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,106
    In Los Angeles, there's the usual bright sunshine and complete lack of public transport, so we'll all be OK.

    I just thought everyone should know that.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,411
    eadric said:

    First hints that Brexit might be paused. Newsnight.

    Good. As I have posted here sides would be mad not to extend transition with the virus coming.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 37,009
    Has Henrietta posted the latest model figures yet?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    rottenborough said:

    eadric said:

    First hints that Brexit might be paused. Newsnight.

    Good. As I have posted here sides would be mad not to extend transition with the virus coming.
    If madness was a factor, we would not have got this far.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,630
    rcs1000 said:

    In Los Angeles, there's the usual bright sunshine and complete lack of public transport, so we'll all be OK.

    I just thought everyone should know that.

    What is 'sunshine'?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,106
    eadric said:

    First hints that Brexit might be paused. Newsnight.

    To be fair, we have other things to worry about right now.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 37,009
    edited March 2020
    Germany is doing something right, or they're just lucky. 545 cases and no fatalities.

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    Someone else who works in the restaurant of the French National Assembly has coronavirus so there could be a cluster there.

    https://www.bfmtv.com/politique/coronavirus-un-depute-lr-hospitalise-avec-une-suspicion-de-contamination-1870046.html
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,630
    moonshine said:

    “There is no circumstance where we will extend the Transition period”.

    A fair enough comment at the time I suppose.


    I am sure the word 'foreseeable' was intended in there somewhere.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,665
    Benpointer said:

    rcs1000 said:

    In Los Angeles, there's the usual bright sunshine and complete lack of public transport, so we'll all be OK.

    I just thought everyone should know that.

    What is 'sunshine'?
    What is "public transport"?
  • isamisam Posts: 42,328
    edited March 2020
    eadric said:

    isam said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    isam said:


    ...
    The words ‘anti bacterial’ are barely decipherable, in mint green below the leaf symbol. I took 3 and left 2 for some other shrewdie 😊

    Some other shrewdie who doesn't know the difference between a virus and a bacterium?
    Blimey! Why are the shelves all empty?
    Because it is SOAP and used with water as normal soap its jolly good, for standard handwashing. Use for 20 secs, was thoroughly. hum God Save the Queen etc
    Haha I used the self service till, pressed the screen... thought ‘GERMS!’ And used it there and then... drove home in the rain with my hands slipping off the wheel

    As for humming GSTQ, I’ve been singing Happy Birthday, but in the style of Marilyn Monroe so I only have to do it once
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Benpointer said:

    moonshine said:

    “There is no circumstance where we will extend the Transition period”.

    A fair enough comment at the time I suppose.


    I am sure the word 'foreseeable' was intended in there somewhere.
    As in 'do or die, unless as is entirely predictable I haven't got the parliamentary numbers'?
  • isamisam Posts: 42,328
    eadric said:

    First hints that Brexit might be paused. Newsnight.

    Yay! Keep those borders open!

    The right to live, love and study in Northern Italy remains ours. The new Romania and Bulgaria in terms of people actually taking advantage of the ‘opportunity’
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,630
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Benpointer said:

    moonshine said:

    “There is no circumstance where we will extend the Transition period”.

    A fair enough comment at the time I suppose.


    I am sure the word 'foreseeable' was intended in there somewhere.
    As in 'do or die, unless as is entirely predictable I haven't got the parliamentary numbers'?
    'These are my principles... if you don't like them, I have others.'
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,630
    rcs1000 said:

    eadric said:

    First hints that Brexit might be paused. Newsnight.

    To be fair, we have other things to worry about right now.
    How ironic for the UK to be saved from a self-inflicted economic disaster... by an unavoidable economic disaster.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 28,142
    kle4 said:

    Assuming they go ahead Starmer is well placed for the local elections. That leaked Labour document predicts pretty massive losses, and if it happens it's mostly Corbyn's fault and if it doesn't Starmer's an instant winner.

    The Labour document predicting massive losses wasn't leaked but rather an attempt at narrative forming.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 28,142
    eadric said:

    Look at this list of coronavirus cases in Europe one week ago


    Italy 650
    Germany 48
    France 38
    Spain 25
    United Kingdom 16
    Switzerland 8
    Sweden 7
    Norway7
    Austria 3
    Croatia 3
    Greece 3
    Finland 2
    Netherlands 1
    San Marino 1
    Romania 1
    Denmark 1
    Estonia 1
    Lithuania 1
    Macedonia 1
    Belgium1



    And compares with today, one week later:


    1. Italy 3,858
    2. Germany 545
    3. France 423
    4. Spain 282
    5. United Kingdom 118
    6. Switzerland 118
    7. Sweden 94
    8. Norway 91
    9. Netherlands 82
    10. Belgium 50
    11. Austria 43
    12. Greece 31
    13. Denmark 20
    14. Ireland 13
    15. Czechia 12.....



    And so on.


    In each country the case numbers have gone up by ten or twelve times, in one week. The samepattern everywhere.


    If that continues for another two weeks, we would see:


    1.Italy: 400,000
    2. Germany: 50,000
    3. France: 40,000
    4. Spain: 30,000
    5. UK: 10,000


    In two weeks from now. Italy would - as an example - have 80,000 people needing hospital care, and about 20,000 dead. In two weeks.

    What odds are you offering ?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,106
    isam said:

    eadric said:

    First hints that Brexit might be paused. Newsnight.

    Yay! Keep those borders open!

    The right to live, love and study in Northern Italy remains ours. The new Romania and Bulgaria in terms of people actually taking advantage of the ‘opportunity’
    Even when the Brexit transition period is over, people will be largely free to come and go. The virus doesn't seem to have had any problem getting to... oohhh... the US for example.

    This is more a recognition that (a) governments are going to be a bit distracted by this whole pandemic issue, and are unlikely to have the time to spend debating pros and cons of various FTAs; and (b) the virus is bringing meaningful economic disruption right now, so adding more is probably not a really smart idea.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    eadric said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Germany is doing something right, or they're just lucky. 545 cases and no fatalities.

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

    Yes. Germany now has SO many cases with no deaths it requires more than a suggestion of "luck". What is happening there?
    Could they just be very ahead of the curve on testing?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    another_richard said:

    eadric said:

    Look at this list of coronavirus cases in Europe one week ago


    Italy 650
    Germany 48
    France 38
    Spain 25
    United Kingdom 16
    Switzerland 8
    Sweden 7
    Norway7
    Austria 3
    Croatia 3
    Greece 3
    Finland 2
    Netherlands 1
    San Marino 1
    Romania 1
    Denmark 1
    Estonia 1
    Lithuania 1
    Macedonia 1
    Belgium1



    And compares with today, one week later:


    1. Italy 3,858
    2. Germany 545
    3. France 423
    4. Spain 282
    5. United Kingdom 118
    6. Switzerland 118
    7. Sweden 94
    8. Norway 91
    9. Netherlands 82
    10. Belgium 50
    11. Austria 43
    12. Greece 31
    13. Denmark 20
    14. Ireland 13
    15. Czechia 12.....



    And so on.


    In each country the case numbers have gone up by ten or twelve times, in one week. The samepattern everywhere.


    If that continues for another two weeks, we would see:


    1.Italy: 400,000
    2. Germany: 50,000
    3. France: 40,000
    4. Spain: 30,000
    5. UK: 10,000


    In two weeks from now. Italy would - as an example - have 80,000 people needing hospital care, and about 20,000 dead. In two weeks.

    What odds are you offering ?
    You are looking for a bet about 20,000 people dying?
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 28,142
    eadric said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Germany is doing something right, or they're just lucky. 545 cases and no fatalities.

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

    Yes. Germany now has SO many cases with no deaths it requires more than a suggestion of "luck". What is happening there?
    They're testing the young people but not the old ?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,630
    eadric said:

    Look at this list of coronavirus cases in Europe one week ago


    Italy 650
    Germany 48
    France 38
    Spain 25
    United Kingdom 16
    Switzerland 8
    Sweden 7
    Norway7
    Austria 3
    Croatia 3
    Greece 3
    Finland 2
    Netherlands 1
    San Marino 1
    Romania 1
    Denmark 1
    Estonia 1
    Lithuania 1
    Macedonia 1
    Belgium1



    And compares with today, one week later:


    1. Italy 3,858
    2. Germany 545
    3. France 423
    4. Spain 282
    5. United Kingdom 118
    6. Switzerland 118
    7. Sweden 94
    8. Norway 91
    9. Netherlands 82
    10. Belgium 50
    11. Austria 43
    12. Greece 31
    13. Denmark 20
    14. Ireland 13
    15. Czechia 12.....



    And so on.


    In each country the case numbers have gone up by ten or twelve times, in one week. The samepattern everywhere.


    If that continues for another two weeks, we would see:


    1.Italy: 400,000
    2. Germany: 50,000
    3. France: 40,000
    4. Spain: 30,000
    5. UK: 10,000


    In two weeks from now. Italy would - as an example - have 80,000 people needing hospital care, and about 20,000 dead. In two weeks.

    That looks like a gross over-extrapolation to me.

    Did China go from 3,858 cases to 400,000 in two weeks? Er, no.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    https://twitter.com/reuters/status/1235700846475636737?s=21
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,267
    edited March 2020
    Benpointer said:

    eadric said:

    Look at this list of coronavirus cases in Europe one week ago


    Italy 650
    Germany 48
    France 38
    Spain 25
    United Kingdom 16
    Switzerland 8
    Sweden 7
    Norway7
    Austria 3
    Croatia 3
    Greece 3
    Finland 2
    Netherlands 1
    San Marino 1
    Romania 1
    Denmark 1
    Estonia 1
    Lithuania 1
    Macedonia 1
    Belgium1



    And compares with today, one week later:


    1. Italy 3,858
    2. Germany 545
    3. France 423
    4. Spain 282
    5. United Kingdom 118
    6. Switzerland 118
    7. Sweden 94
    8. Norway 91
    9. Netherlands 82
    10. Belgium 50
    11. Austria 43
    12. Greece 31
    13. Denmark 20
    14. Ireland 13
    15. Czechia 12.....



    And so on.


    In each country the case numbers have gone up by ten or twelve times, in one week. The samepattern everywhere.


    If that continues for another two weeks, we would see:


    1.Italy: 400,000
    2. Germany: 50,000
    3. France: 40,000
    4. Spain: 30,000
    5. UK: 10,000


    In two weeks from now. Italy would - as an example - have 80,000 people needing hospital care, and about 20,000 dead. In two weeks.

    That looks like a gross over-extrapolation to me.

    Did China go from 3,858 cases to 400,000 in two weeks? Er, no.
    Are Italy about to weld people into buildings and use massively authoritarian measures to enforce quarantines? Although yes, I agree that a large amount of the increase is due to increased testing. Using a 6 days to double estimate (which seems to be on the high end of consensus) 10,000 Italian cases would be around 50k in two weeks.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    The CDC are apparently refusing to test a sick nurse who was treating a coronavirus patient.

    https://twitter.com/nnubonnie/status/1235663306246860800?s=21
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 28,142
    IshmaelZ said:

    another_richard said:

    eadric said:

    Look at this list of coronavirus cases in Europe one week ago


    Italy 650
    Germany 48
    France 38
    Spain 25
    United Kingdom 16
    Switzerland 8
    Sweden 7
    Norway7
    Austria 3
    Croatia 3
    Greece 3
    Finland 2
    Netherlands 1
    San Marino 1
    Romania 1
    Denmark 1
    Estonia 1
    Lithuania 1
    Macedonia 1
    Belgium1



    And compares with today, one week later:


    1. Italy 3,858
    2. Germany 545
    3. France 423
    4. Spain 282
    5. United Kingdom 118
    6. Switzerland 118
    7. Sweden 94
    8. Norway 91
    9. Netherlands 82
    10. Belgium 50
    11. Austria 43
    12. Greece 31
    13. Denmark 20
    14. Ireland 13
    15. Czechia 12.....



    And so on.


    In each country the case numbers have gone up by ten or twelve times, in one week. The samepattern everywhere.


    If that continues for another two weeks, we would see:


    1.Italy: 400,000
    2. Germany: 50,000
    3. France: 40,000
    4. Spain: 30,000
    5. UK: 10,000


    In two weeks from now. Italy would - as an example - have 80,000 people needing hospital care, and about 20,000 dead. In two weeks.

    What odds are you offering ?
    You are looking for a bet about 20,000 people dying?
    If the odds are attractive.

    Why not ?

    We're betting on what demented / dementied oldie will be in control of the US war machine.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Now here's an oddity: why has the share price of Dignity plc (which fell back sharply last year as a consequence of an unfortunate lack of volume) not gone through the roof?

    https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/d/dignity-plc-ordinary-shares-12-48143p
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,943
    Oh god moron Matt Hanckock's on Question Time along with Mother Beckett !!!!

    Early night? :D
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,411
    What a thread.

    https://twitter.com/mattzarb/status/1235685681415909377

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1235695501762125825
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 28,142
    williamglenn said:

    The CDC are apparently refusing to test a sick nurse who was treating a coronavirus patient.

    https://twitter.com/nnubonnie/status/1235663306246860800?s=21

    A consequence of allowing the lawyers too much power.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,629
    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:

    eadric said:

    First hints that Brexit might be paused. Newsnight.

    Yay! Keep those borders open!

    The right to live, love and study in Northern Italy remains ours. The new Romania and Bulgaria in terms of people actually taking advantage of the ‘opportunity’
    Even when the Brexit transition period is over, people will be largely free to come and go. The virus doesn't seem to have had any problem getting to... oohhh... the US for example.

    This is more a recognition that (a) governments are going to be a bit distracted by this whole pandemic issue, and are unlikely to have the time to spend debating pros and cons of various FTAs; and (b) the virus is bringing meaningful economic disruption right now, so adding more is probably not a really smart idea.
    Isn’t it just that there can’t be a deal if they can’t shake hands?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,411
    eadric said:

    More encouragingly, I have been reading some convincing maths/epedemiology on twitter/online that says we should get expect an end to exponential growth very soon - ie in the next couple of weeks, because as soon as the numbers get scary (very soon) people will react like scalded cats and the virus will slow drastically

    This may the advantage of social media infodemics, if they make the public "overreact" earlier, and self isolate ASAP?

    Will that not lead to a 'v' shape? Big burst now for two or three weeks or whatever, then everyone takes to their cellars. Then it dips. Then everyone sighs relief and comes out to get down to their pub and so it begins again.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 28,142
    rottenborough said:

    What a thread.

    https://twitter.com/mattzarb/status/1235685681415909377

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1235695501762125825

    The comfort zone of the echo chamber.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,411
    GIN1138 said:

    Oh god moron Matt Hanckock's on Question Time along with Mother Beckett !!!!

    Early night? :D

    Layla on for Liberals.

    I just don't get why she is seen as a possible leader or next but one. Sorry. Maybe it is just me.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,267
    eadric said:

    More encouragingly, I have been reading some convincing maths/epedemiology on twitter/online that says we should get expect an end to exponential growth very soon - ie in the next couple of weeks, because as soon as the numbers get scary (very soon) people will react like scalded cats and the virus will slow drastically.

    This may the advantage of social media infodemics, if they make the public "overreact" earlier, and self isolate ASAP?

    That's my big hope. I can't see people not reacting in a big way to widespread infection in the UK. Given the percentage of jobs that can be done WFH in such a service based economy it shouldn't be awful. Especially if we start seeing grim stories out of Italy.

    Who knows though, at the moment it's all theory.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,758
    IshmaelZ said:

    another_richard said:

    eadric said:

    Look at this list of coronavirus cases in Europe one week ago


    Italy 650
    Germany 48
    France 38
    Spain 25
    United Kingdom 16
    Switzerland 8
    Sweden 7
    Norway7
    Austria 3
    Croatia 3
    Greece 3
    Finland 2
    Netherlands 1
    San Marino 1
    Romania 1
    Denmark 1
    Estonia 1
    Lithuania 1
    Macedonia 1
    Belgium1



    And compares with today, one week later:


    1. Italy 3,858
    2. Germany 545
    3. France 423
    4. Spain 282
    5. United Kingdom 118
    6. Switzerland 118
    7. Sweden 94
    8. Norway 91
    9. Netherlands 82
    10. Belgium 50
    11. Austria 43
    12. Greece 31
    13. Denmark 20
    14. Ireland 13
    15. Czechia 12.....



    And so on.


    In each country the case numbers have gone up by ten or twelve times, in one week. The samepattern everywhere.


    If that continues for another two weeks, we would see:


    1.Italy: 400,000
    2. Germany: 50,000
    3. France: 40,000
    4. Spain: 30,000
    5. UK: 10,000


    In two weeks from now. Italy would - as an example - have 80,000 people needing hospital care, and about 20,000 dead. In two weeks.

    What odds are you offering ?
    You are looking for a bet about 20,000 people dying?
    Do it, markets provide information, information saves lives.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,411
    another_richard said:

    rottenborough said:

    What a thread.

    https://twitter.com/mattzarb/status/1235685681415909377

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1235695501762125825

    The comfort zone of the echo chamber.
    We are back to the most essential lesson of 2019. Twitter is NOT the electorate. Nor are all the others sitting by you in the gastro pub eating avocado on toast in Hackney before you head out with Owen Jones for some door knocking.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 28,142
    rottenborough said:

    What a thread.

    https://twitter.com/mattzarb/status/1235685681415909377

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1235695501762125825

    BTW who was the rabble rouser ?

    He reminded me of one of the characters Lenny Henry played.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Jonathan said:

    Boris held his election at about the only moment he could have held it. Swinson has much to answer for.

    Would you prefer a fractious and divided parliament was arguing about COVID?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Now here's an oddity: why has the share price of Dignity plc (which fell back sharply last year as a consequence of an unfortunate lack of volume) not gone through the roof?

    https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/d/dignity-plc-ordinary-shares-12-48143p

    Regular burials are the first thing to go: see, e.g., Defoe, or the reference in Kelly to "corpses packed like lasagna in municipal plague pits."
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 37,009
    Some interesting graphs on this page: daily deaths and growth factor.

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-toll/
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,665
    rottenborough said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Oh god moron Matt Hanckock's on Question Time along with Mother Beckett !!!!

    Early night? :D

    Layla on for Liberals.

    I just don't get why she is seen as a possible leader or next but one. Sorry. Maybe it is just me.
    You're not alone.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    IshmaelZ said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Now here's an oddity: why has the share price of Dignity plc (which fell back sharply last year as a consequence of an unfortunate lack of volume) not gone through the roof?

    https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/d/dignity-plc-ordinary-shares-12-48143p

    Regular burials are the first thing to go: see, e.g., Defoe, or the reference in Kelly to "corpses packed like lasagna in municipal plague pits."
    True, the sweet spot for Dignity plc is a substantial increase but not an explosion in volumes.

    Tricky one to price!
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    MarqueeMark said:

    Benpointer said:

    rcs1000 said:

    In Los Angeles, there's the usual bright sunshine and complete lack of public transport, so we'll all be OK.

    I just thought everyone should know that.

    What is 'sunshine'?
    What is "public transport"?
    BA I believe
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,943
    edited March 2020
    rottenborough said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Oh god moron Matt Hanckock's on Question Time along with Mother Beckett !!!!

    Early night? :D

    Layla on for Liberals.

    I just don't get why she is seen as a possible leader or next but one. Sorry. Maybe it is just me.
    Well it's not like the Lib-Dems have got a large stock of possibles to go at.

    TAXI!!!!! :D
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,411
    another_richard said:

    rottenborough said:

    What a thread.

    https://twitter.com/mattzarb/status/1235685681415909377

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1235695501762125825

    BTW who was the rabble rouser ?

    He reminded me of one of the characters Lenny Henry played.
    Academic, philosopher, activist. Socialist. Critical of Obama amongst other things.

    There's a wiki entry.

  • northernpowerhouse2northernpowerhouse2 Posts: 190
    IshmaelZ said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Now here's an oddity: why has the share price of Dignity plc (which fell back sharply last year as a consequence of an unfortunate lack of volume) not gone through the roof?

    https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/d/dignity-plc-ordinary-shares-12-48143p

    Regular burials are the first thing to go: see, e.g., Defoe, or the reference in Kelly to "corpses packed like lasagna in municipal plague pits."
    Held in Eddie stobart refrigerated lorries. Death certificates needed. Fast track option possible. Mass burials only when can store no longer.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,267
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Now here's an oddity: why has the share price of Dignity plc (which fell back sharply last year as a consequence of an unfortunate lack of volume) not gone through the roof?

    https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/d/dignity-plc-ordinary-shares-12-48143p

    Regular burials are the first thing to go: see, e.g., Defoe, or the reference in Kelly to "corpses packed like lasagna in municipal plague pits."
    True, the sweet spot for Dignity plc is a substantial increase but not an explosion in volumes.

    Tricky one to price!
    Issue with a substantial increase is that it'll be the most vulnerable, so will just be pushing future 'clients' forward to this year, leading to a decline in customers for the next 5 or so years.
  • matthiasfromhamburgmatthiasfromhamburg Posts: 957
    williamglenn said:

    eadric said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Germany is doing something right, or they're just lucky. 545 cases and no fatalities.

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

    Yes. Germany now has SO many cases with no deaths it requires more than a suggestion of "luck". What is happening there?
    Could they just be very ahead of the curve on testing?
    From what I can observe our authorities seem to have taken a strategically and procedurally sound approach. They have tested a lot and they seem to have tested the right people.
    Those afflicted enjoy a fairly decent standard of care.

    All of that, combined with the fact that we have relatively generous capacities and reserves - approx. 4.5 times as many hospital beds per capita, compared to the UK - is a cause for (very cautious) optimism.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Now here's an oddity: why has the share price of Dignity plc (which fell back sharply last year as a consequence of an unfortunate lack of volume) not gone through the roof?

    https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/d/dignity-plc-ordinary-shares-12-48143p

    Because they make their money from up selling packages not volume
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,106
    rottenborough said:

    eadric said:

    More encouragingly, I have been reading some convincing maths/epedemiology on twitter/online that says we should get expect an end to exponential growth very soon - ie in the next couple of weeks, because as soon as the numbers get scary (very soon) people will react like scalded cats and the virus will slow drastically

    This may the advantage of social media infodemics, if they make the public "overreact" earlier, and self isolate ASAP?

    Will that not lead to a 'v' shape? Big burst now for two or three weeks or whatever, then everyone takes to their cellars. Then it dips. Then everyone sighs relief and comes out to get down to their pub and so it begins again.
    Even that scenario is better, because it allows means hospitals are not overloaded, better treatment measures to be put in place, and a vaccine to potentially be discovered.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    eadric said:

    First hints that Brexit might be paused. Newsnight.

    To extend the transition period, first Boris will need to repeal the clause in the EUWA Act that said no extension can be requested. Let’s hope he can get that through Parliament before it’s suspended for the duration. Or I suppose he could try using one of the Henry VIII clauses that’ve been spaffed all over the statute book in recent years.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 52,660
    eadric said:

    Chameleon said:

    Benpointer said:

    eadric said:

    Look at this list of coronavirus cases in Europe one week ago


    Italy 650
    Germany 48
    France 38
    Spain 25
    United Kingdom 16
    Switzerland 8
    Sweden 7
    Norway7
    Austria 3
    Croatia 3
    Greece 3
    Finland 2
    Netherlands 1
    San Marino 1
    Romania 1
    Denmark 1
    Estonia 1
    Lithuania 1
    Macedonia 1
    Belgium1



    And compares with today, one week later:


    1. Italy 3,858
    2. Germany 545
    3. France 423
    4. Spain 282
    5. United Kingdom 118
    6. Switzerland 118
    7. Sweden 94
    8. Norway 91
    9. Netherlands 82
    10. Belgium 50
    11. Austria 43
    12. Greece 31
    13. Denmark 20
    14. Ireland 13
    15. Czechia 12.....



    And so on.


    In each country the case numbers have gone up by ten or twelve times, in one week. The samepattern everywhere.


    If that continues for another two weeks, we would see:


    1.Italy: 400,000
    2. Germany: 50,000
    3. France: 40,000
    4. Spain: 30,000
    5. UK: 10,000


    In two weeks from now. Italy would - as an example - have 80,000 people needing hospital care, and about 20,000 dead. In two weeks.

    That looks like a gross over-extrapolation to me.

    Did China go from 3,858 cases to 400,000 in two weeks? Er, no.
    Are Italy about to weld people into buildings and use massively authoritarian measures to enforce quarantines? Although yes, I agree that a large amount of the increase is due to increased testing. Using a 6 days to double estimate (which seems to be on the high end of consensus) 10,000 Italian cases would be around 50k in two weeks.
    YOu may well be right and it's a function of testing. In which case we are about to see an explosion of cases in the USA

    Also, even just 50,000 cases means (on present figures) 10,000-people needed intensive care.

    How many ICUs does Italy have?
    Italy has 12.2 ICU beds per 100 000 population, so about 7 000. They can probably double that with operating theatres and recovery. We have just 6.6 per capita, and Germany a mammoth 29 per capita.

    I think 10% in ICU is a reasonable guess, so aggressive containment saves lives.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Trump doing a town hall in Scranton PA. Joe Biden's home town. Trump won PA by about 40k votes in 2016. The crowd is enthusiastic. He lost Lackawanna county though, which contains Scranton.
  • northernpowerhouse2northernpowerhouse2 Posts: 190
    edited March 2020
    rottenborough said:

    another_richard said:

    rottenborough said:

    What a thread.

    https://twitter.com/mattzarb/status/1235685681415909377

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1235695501762125825

    BTW who was the rabble rouser ?

    He reminded me of one of the characters Lenny Henry played.
    Academic, philosopher, activist. Socialist. Critical of Obama amongst other things.

    There's a wiki entry.

    Hodges is right, what does a Midwesterner look at that video and think? “This guy is not only not only my side. He’s on everyone else’s side except mine”
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,411
    Tim_B said:

    Trump doing a town hall in Scranton PA. Joe Biden's home town. Trump won PA by about 40k votes in 2016. The crowd is enthusiastic. He lost Lackawanna county though, which contains Scranton.

    Trump knows what's coming. A bare knuckle fight.
  • northernpowerhouse2northernpowerhouse2 Posts: 190
    rpjs said:

    eadric said:

    First hints that Brexit might be paused. Newsnight.

    To extend the transition period, first Boris will need to repeal the clause in the EUWA Act that said no extension can be requested. Let’s hope he can get that through Parliament before it’s suspended for the duration. Or I suppose he could try using one of the Henry VIII clauses that’ve been spaffed all over the statute book in recent years.
    Henry VIII Clause = the correct and utterly normal use of royal prerogative.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,809
    Maybe it's just as well the Labour leadership ballot is going on for another month:

    "Several leadership and deputy leadership campaigns have told the Guardian their canvassers are picking up a large volume of party members still awaiting their ballot.

    The issue appears to be particularly acute for new members who joined the party after December’s election, believed to number more than 100,000, who are being subjected to a verification process that involves checking their address against the electoral roll."

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/mar/05/labour-faces-claims-members-yet-to-receive-leadership-ballots
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,411
    northernpowerhouse2 said:

    rottenborough said:

    another_richard said:

    rottenborough said:

    What a thread.

    https://twitter.com/mattzarb/status/1235685681415909377

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1235695501762125825

    BTW who was the rabble rouser ?

    He reminded me of one of the characters Lenny Henry played.
    Academic, philosopher, activist. Socialist. Critical of Obama amongst other things.

    There's a wiki entry.

    Hodges is right, what does a Midwesterner look at that video and think? “This guy is not only not only my side. He’s on everyone else’s side except mine”
    In the rust belt towns they will probably say what the fuck is he talking about
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,106
    edited March 2020
    rpjs said:

    eadric said:

    First hints that Brexit might be paused. Newsnight.

    To extend the transition period, first Boris will need to repeal the clause in the EUWA Act that said no extension can be requested. Let’s hope he can get that through Parliament before it’s suspended for the duration. Or I suppose he could try using one of the Henry VIII clauses that’ve been spaffed all over the statute book in recent years.
    Won't they pass a "COVID-19 Emergency Powers Act", that will also allow the govt to extend the implementation time if it so desires?
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,267
    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1235714551871606785?s=20
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,512
    rpjs said:

    eadric said:

    First hints that Brexit might be paused. Newsnight.

    To extend the transition period, first Boris will need to repeal the clause in the EUWA Act that said no extension can be requested. Let’s hope he can get that through Parliament before it’s suspended for the duration. Or I suppose he could try using one of the Henry VIII clauses that’ve been spaffed all over the statute book in recent years.
    He doesn't need to. The Civil Contingencies Act can be used to suspend or supersede practically every law on the statute books.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,779
    williamglenn said:

    The CDC are apparently refusing to test a sick nurse who was treating a coronavirus patient.

    https://twitter.com/nnubonnie/status/1235663306246860800?s=21

    That is insane. Is the CDC like the EPA in that it is led by political appointees?

    I don't understand how the situation could be so bad.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,809
    Per link below Germany has more than doubled today:

    Yesterday - 262
    Today - 545

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,991
    rottenborough said:

    northernpowerhouse2 said:

    rottenborough said:

    another_richard said:

    rottenborough said:

    What a thread.

    https://twitter.com/mattzarb/status/1235685681415909377

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1235695501762125825

    BTW who was the rabble rouser ?

    He reminded me of one of the characters Lenny Henry played.
    Academic, philosopher, activist. Socialist. Critical of Obama amongst other things.

    There's a wiki entry.

    Hodges is right, what does a Midwesterner look at that video and think? “This guy is not only not only my side. He’s on everyone else’s side except mine”
    In the rust belt towns they will probably say what the fuck is he talking about
    The biggest rejection of Sanders hasn't been by white voters in the rust belt, it's been by black voters in the south.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,267
    eadric said:

    Chameleon said:

    Benpointer said:

    eadric said:

    Look at this list of coronavirus cases in Europe one week ago


    Italy 650
    Germany 48
    France 38
    Spain 25
    United Kingdom 16
    Switzerland 8
    Sweden 7
    Norway7
    Austria 3
    Croatia 3
    Greece 3
    Finland 2
    Netherlands 1
    San Marino 1
    Romania 1
    Denmark 1
    Estonia 1
    Lithuania 1
    Macedonia 1
    Belgium1



    And compares with today, one week later:


    1. Italy 3,858
    2. Germany 545
    3. France 423
    4. Spain 282
    5. United Kingdom 118
    6. Switzerland 118
    7. Sweden 94
    8. Norway 91
    9. Netherlands 82
    10. Belgium 50
    11. Austria 43
    12. Greece 31
    13. Denmark 20
    14. Ireland 13
    15. Czechia 12.....



    And so on.


    In each country the case numbers have gone up by ten or twelve times, in one week. The samepattern everywhere.


    If that continues for another two weeks, we would see:


    1.Italy: 400,000
    2. Germany: 50,000
    3. France: 40,000
    4. Spain: 30,000
    5. UK: 10,000


    In two weeks from now. Italy would - as an example - have 80,000 people needing hospital care, and about 20,000 dead. In two weeks.

    That looks like a gross over-extrapolation to me.

    Did China go from 3,858 cases to 400,000 in two weeks? Er, no.
    Are Italy about to weld people into buildings and use massively authoritarian measures to enforce quarantines? Although yes, I agree that a large amount of the increase is due to increased testing. Using a 6 days to double estimate (which seems to be on the high end of consensus) 10,000 Italian cases would be around 50k in two weeks.
    YOu may well be right and it's a function of testing. In which case we are about to see an explosion of cases in the USA

    Also, even just 50,000 cases means (on present figures) 10,000-people needed intensive care.

    How many ICUs does Italy have?
    Hmm, even Italy is reporting only 9% of cases in ICU. But yes, I agree that the USA has a massive amount of cases, that much is clear to anyone with a brain.

    However there's no indication that the virus doubles every few days, 5-6 looks far more realistic. However if 50 people got through 43 days ago... That's near enough 20k cases. Can the US track and isolate 10k cases in the next 6 days? Because if not the number of cases will keep rising...
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    Richard_Nabavi said:


    Some other shrewdie who doesn't know the difference between a virus and a bacterium?

    My local tesco had the same, literally all the handwash cleared out. Fortunately I have a 5 litre refill.....
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,411
    Pulpstar said:

    rottenborough said:

    northernpowerhouse2 said:

    rottenborough said:

    another_richard said:

    rottenborough said:

    What a thread.

    https://twitter.com/mattzarb/status/1235685681415909377

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1235695501762125825

    BTW who was the rabble rouser ?

    He reminded me of one of the characters Lenny Henry played.
    Academic, philosopher, activist. Socialist. Critical of Obama amongst other things.

    There's a wiki entry.

    Hodges is right, what does a Midwesterner look at that video and think? “This guy is not only not only my side. He’s on everyone else’s side except mine”
    In the rust belt towns they will probably say what the fuck is he talking about
    The biggest rejection of Sanders hasn't been by white voters in the rust belt, it's been by black voters in the south.
    I rather suspect they will say the same thing about that advert.

    In the woke college towns maybe it gets a listen.
  • matthiasfromhamburgmatthiasfromhamburg Posts: 957
    eadric said:

    matthiasfromhamburg said:

    williamglenn said:

    eadric said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Germany is doing something right, or they're just lucky. 545 cases and no fatalities.

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

    Yes. Germany now has SO many cases with no deaths it requires more than a suggestion of "luck". What is happening there?
    Could they just be very ahead of the curve on testing?
    From what I can observe our authorities seem to have taken a strategically and procedurally sound approach. They have tested a lot and they seem to have tested the right people.
    Those afflicted enjoy a fairly decent standard of care.

    All of that, combined with the fact that we have relatively generous capacities and reserves - approx. 4.5 times as many hospital beds per capita, compared to the UK - is a cause for (very cautious) optimism.
    On the other hand, you have one of the biggest case numbers outside Asia, and it is increasing faster than almost anywhere

    545 cases, with barely a handful recovered.

    I'd wait a bit before gloating about your excellent preparedness, TBH

    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1235714551871606785?s=20

    You're about 4 days from being Italy.
    Thank you very much for your kind concern.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,411
    https://twitter.com/balajis/status/1234879748083503105

    For Henrietta.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,411
    CDC would not test as she was wearing the right gear. So no need.

    @eadric ??


    https://twitter.com/balajis/status/1235718089553125378
  • alteregoalterego Posts: 1,100
    Starmer who?
This discussion has been closed.

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