Trump doing a town hall in Scranton PA. Joe Biden's home town. Trump won PA by about 40k votes in 2016. The crowd is enthusiastic. He lost Lackawanna county though, which contains Scranton.
Yes. Germany now has SO many cases with no deaths it requires more than a suggestion of "luck". What is happening there?
Could they just be very ahead of the curve on testing?
From what I can observe our authorities seem to have taken a strategically and procedurally sound approach. They have tested a lot and they seem to have tested the right people. Those afflicted enjoy a fairly decent standard of care.
All of that, combined with the fact that we have relatively generous capacities and reserves - approx. 4.5 times as many hospital beds per capita, compared to the UK - is a cause for (very cautious) optimism.
On the other hand, you have one of the biggest case numbers outside Asia, and it is increasing faster than almost anywhere
545 cases, with barely a handful recovered.
I'd wait a bit before gloating about your excellent preparedness, TBH
Trump doing a town hall in Scranton PA. Joe Biden's home town. Trump won PA by about 40k votes in 2016. The crowd is enthusiastic. He lost Lackawanna county though, which contains Scranton.
Trump doing a town hall in Scranton PA. Joe Biden's home town. Trump won PA by about 40k votes in 2016. The crowd is enthusiastic. He lost Lackawanna county though, which contains Scranton.
First hints that Brexit might be paused. Newsnight.
Brexit happened in January, the transition period might be extended again but then there is an argument for tighter border control and ending free movement sooner rather than later too
First hints that Brexit might be paused. Newsnight.
Brexit happened in January, the transition period might be extended again but then there is an argument for tighter border control and ending free movement sooner rather than later too
I'd missed Eardric on this but that and his source makes me think this is a runner. Tomorrow?
Now South Korea are through the cult their daily numbers will be lower than elsewhere, because they can't target testing as clearly. The big question is how many slipped through the targeted testing.
The White House has acknowledged the nation does not have enough coronavirus test kits as cases of the disease ticked upwards on both US coasts. Vice-President Mike Pence said the Trump administration would not be able to meet its objective of delivering one million testing kits this week.
At the risk of being accused of cherry picking, in north-west Europe (including Germany) there have been around 1,000 cases and one fatality (in the UK). That mortality rate of 0.1 is in line with influenza. I know it's probably wishful thinking to expect Germany to continue to have no fatalities despite so many cases.
At the risk of being accused of cherry picking, in north-west Europe (including Germany) there have been around 1,000 cases and one fatality (in the UK). That mortality rate of 0.1 is in line with influenza. I know it's probably wishful thinking to expect Germany to continue to have no fatalities despite so many cases.
People take time to die from this.
Generally travellers skew young and healthy.
Calculating mortality rate at the start of an outbreak is nonsensical.
All three are reasons why 0.1 is nonsense. It's no surprise that if you exclude the countries with bad mortality rates the overall mortality rate is quite low.
Note how SK and Wuhan's percentage of cases deceased is increasing as the outbreaks age.
Yes. Germany now has SO many cases with no deaths it requires more than a suggestion of "luck". What is happening there?
Could they just be very ahead of the curve on testing?
The testing increased a lot the last days, so they have been I would say a bit behind the curve.
A lot of the cases are connected to a single small town, many specifically to a Karnevalsitzung that an infected couple attended on the 15th of February. That seems long enough ago to have a death by now. Perhaps the carnival event didn't have many old people.
It seems to be true that those getting sick are getting good treatment, which obviously helps.
But I guess there is an element of luck, no doubt we'll see deaths soon.
I'm not sure why Matthiasfromhamburg thinks the German response has been good. They have only started getting their act together this week really..
At the risk of being accused of cherry picking, in north-west Europe (including Germany) there have been around 1,000 cases and one fatality (in the UK). That mortality rate of 0.1 is in line with influenza. I know it's probably wishful thinking to expect Germany to continue to have no fatalities despite so many cases.
People take time to die from this.
Generally travellers skew young and healthy.
Calculating mortality rate at the start of an outbreak is nonsensical.
All three are reasons why 0.1 is nonsense. It's no surprise that if you exclude the countries with bad mortality rates the overall mortality rate is quite low.
Note how SK and Wuhan's percentage of cases deceased is increasing as the outbreaks age.
Yes but on the other hand the test rate for those who died is near 100 per cent, which skews the numbers the other way at the start of an outbreak when it is only dead and very ill people who are tested. And while we continue to ask mildly ill patients to self-isolate rather than present themselves for proper diagnosis, we may not discover the true figures; we will have the mortality rate for those patients judged ill enough to test.
That's the way to do photo-ops. Wearing hard hats to peer at plans with clear skies overhead. At least our own dear leader would have donned a high-visibility jacket.
Yes but what is growing: the disease; diagnosis; both? We saw earlier in this thread that the Great State of Missouri has tested "nearly 17" people. When it tests nearly a thousand, the number of known cases might rise with a corresponding fall in the number of undiagnosed cases.
Re: discussion about COVID growth rates. Surely the numbers (within individual countries) are misleading until most of the cases are caused by community spread not foreign invasion (ie. people who have contracted abroad)?
First hints that Brexit might be paused. Newsnight.
Brexit happened in January, the transition period might be extended again but then there is an argument for tighter border control and ending free movement sooner rather than later too
I'd missed Eardric on this but that and his source makes me think this is a runner. Tomorrow?
These aren’t mutually exclusive. The logical thing to do is postpone the trade disruption and tighten the border. Whether the government is up for logic in the face of the crisi remains to be seen.
How many cases did Italy have when the FCO advised against non-essential travel, and how do France/Germany compare now? Are we expecting changes of advice there soon?
"Donald Trump attacked Joe Biden’s cognitive abilities on Thursday night during an event in the former-vice president’s hometown that could set the tone for an ugly general election.
Appearing at a Fox News town hall in Scranton, Pennsylvania, Trump – who has faced repeated scrutiny over his own mental acuity – said there was “something going on” with Biden, in what may prove a rehearsal for Republican attacks during the presidential election. Thursday marked Trump’s first public event since Biden’s surprisingly strong performance on Super Tuesday, when he won 10 out of 14 states available to propel him into the lead in the Democratic primary.
Trump said he had been “all set” to face Biden’s rival Bernie Sanders, whom he called a “communist”, until the recent vote.
“Then we have this crazy thing that happened on Tuesday, which [Biden] thought was Thursday, but he also said 150 million people were killed with guns and that he was running for the United States Senate. There’s something going on there,” Trump said. "
If Trump is going to begin this line of attack for both men from now, they look almost equally vulnerable to me. Sanders' will get a higher turnout, and Biden more soft republicans, but the similar levels in current polls I don't think lie. Coronavirus is the one thing that could leave Sanders benefitting more.
Re: discussion about COVID growth rates. Surely the numbers (within individual countries) are misleading until most of the cases are caused by community spread not foreign invasion (ie. people who have contracted abroad)?
Look at those numbers as a subset if you like but assuming the transmission goes
Foreigner in a foreign country -> Plucky Brit -> [incubation period ] -> Other plucky Brit -> [incubation period]
...you're going to have to wait a long time for any data. If you insist on doing it that way, zero in on a country like Japan that's a couple of weeks ahead of the UK and has already had time to create some data of the type you want to measure.
How many cases did Italy have when the FCO advised against non-essential travel, and how do France/Germany compare now? Are we expecting changes of advice there soon?
Once the virus is everywhere, why would you have a travel advisory? In terms of risk it would no longer make any sense; you would be more at risk on a bus down the high street than when driving yourself across Europe. Yes, health services at your destination might be disrupted, but then the same might be the case at home.
Of course, the advisory might be no travel, everyone stay at home.
If Trump is going to begin this line of attack for both men from now, they look almost equally vulnerable to me. Sanders' will get a higher turnout, and Biden more soft republicans, but the similar levels in current polls I don't think lie. Coronavirus is the one thing that could leave Sanders benefitting more.
The Sanders higher turnout story isn't looking very promising, since he's not so far managing to get his alleged surge of non-voters to show up and vote for him in the primary.
But I really think the Dems should be pushing the *opposing* dementia story hard against Trump, it's not like they'd be short of material.
How many cases did Italy have when the FCO advised against non-essential travel, and how do France/Germany compare now? Are we expecting changes of advice there soon?
numbers in the uk have also increased. there's less point stopping travel to countries where the infection rate isn't that different to your own. so probably depends on how things develop relatively in the next few days
If Trump is going to begin this line of attack for both men from now, they look almost equally vulnerable to me. Sanders' will get a higher turnout, and Biden more soft republicans, but the similar levels in current polls I don't think lie. Coronavirus is the one thing that could leave Sanders benefitting more.
The Sanders higher turnout story isn't looking very promising, since he's not so far managing to get his alleged surge of non-voters to show up and vote for him in the primary.
But I really think the Dems should be pushing the *opposing* dementia story hard against Trump, it's not like they'd be short of material.
He does indeed have to prove he can get his usual non-voters out in the next round, and if he doesn't things will look very difficult for him.
The key for him last time was that Jim Clyburn of South Carolina endorsed Biden, not only setting of a wave of progress for Biden after that primary with both Buttigieg and Klobuchar pulling out, but undoing a lot of Sanders hard work with black voters, particularly across the South.
Sanders' critiques both of campaign financing and US healthcare impendiments do have merit. Clyburn has received $1 million from pharmaceutical companies and completely excluded them from the Affordable Care Act that he drew up.
I've laid Biden a bit more for the Democrat nomination. Greener, on that market, if he fails than succeeds, but I've also got a tiny sum on him at 36 for the presidency, so that'll be a bigger upside if he gets it.
How many cases did Italy have when the FCO advised against non-essential travel, and how do France/Germany compare now? Are we expecting changes of advice there soon?
numbers in the uk have also increased. there's less point stopping travel to countries where the infection rate isn't that different to your own. so probably depends on how things develop relatively in the next few days
Also the Italian cases are clustered, the advice is not to visit a relatively small part of italy
I wonder when the FO will advise against all but essential travel to the United States...
That’s good advice anyway, tbf.
I’m very much enjoying the reprise of Britain being Athens to the USA’s Rome. That essential feeling of superiority never goes away, just manifests itself in slightly different forms.
Voters could just about stomach his priggish do gooder boring personality when compared to hard left terrorist loving Jew hater Jeremy- but if he doesn’t ditch all these hard left policies then his upside is very limited.
I wonder when the FO will advise against all but essential travel to the United States...
That’s good advice anyway, tbf.
I’m very much enjoying the reprise of Britain being Athens to the USA’s Rome. That essential feeling of superiority never goes away, just manifests itself in slightly different forms.
Boris prefers Athens anyway, although Mary Beard disagrees...
I wonder when the FO will advise against all but essential travel to the United States...
That’s good advice anyway, tbf.
I’m very much enjoying the reprise of Britain being Athens to the USA’s Rome. That essential feeling of superiority never goes away, just manifests itself in slightly different forms.
There was an interesting discussion about America's global role on Newsnight. The point was made that America is losing its leadership role, as in a crisis people don't want to follow a nation who's motto is "me first".
Although the point wasn't pursued, if the US takes this particularly bad you might see it becoming (viewed in retrospect at least) the event that started America's relative decline.
On the other hand it's still probable that any vaccine or cure will originate there, and we'll all have to pay them handsomely to get hold of it.
I wonder when the FO will advise against all but essential travel to the United States...
That’s good advice anyway, tbf.
I’m very much enjoying the reprise of Britain being Athens to the USA’s Rome. That essential feeling of superiority never goes away, just manifests itself in slightly different forms.
There was an interesting discussion about America's global role on Newsnight. The point was made that America is losing its leadership role, as in a crisis people don't want to follow a nation who's motto is "me first".
Although the point wasn't pursued, if the US takes this particularly bad you might see it becoming (viewed in retrospect at least) the event that started America's relative decline.
On the other hand it's still probable that any vaccine or cure will originate there, and we'll all have to pay them handsomely to get hold of it.
The US has always been “me first”. Trump is just less subtle than his predecessors, by a degree of magnitude.
Voters could just about stomach his priggish do gooder boring personality when compared to hard left terrorist loving Jew hater Jeremy- but if he doesn’t ditch all these hard left policies then his upside is very limited.
Comments
https://twitter.com/Noahpinion/status/1235467563536019457
Sanders socialist dreams of free healthcare and Scandinavia-for-all can wait.
Let's all hope Biden is up to the task.
https://twitter.com/govparsonmo/status/1235695701532782594?s=21
Vice-President Mike Pence said the Trump administration would not be able to meet its objective of delivering one million testing kits this week.
https://apple.news/AFEJQv10LSESG1WjUGZIDHA
No! Really?
Lol, children could be the perfect asymptomatic vector.
Generally travellers skew young and healthy.
Calculating mortality rate at the start of an outbreak is nonsensical.
All three are reasons why 0.1 is nonsense. It's no surprise that if you exclude the countries with bad mortality rates the overall mortality rate is quite low.
Note how SK and Wuhan's percentage of cases deceased is increasing as the outbreaks age.
Number of new cases (outside China) each day for last 10 days:
Feb 25 - 335
Feb 26 - 559
Feb 27 - 965
Feb 28 - 1,076
Feb 29 - 1,416
Mar 1 - 1,775
Mar 2 - 1,733
Mar 3 - 2,454
Mar 4 - 2,157
Mar 5 - 2,956
So the odd better day here and there but overall still growing pretty steadily - number of new cases doubling approx every 3 days.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-cases/#case-tot-outchina
A lot of the cases are connected to a single small town, many specifically to a Karnevalsitzung that an infected couple attended on the 15th of February. That seems long enough ago to have a death by now. Perhaps the carnival event didn't have many old people.
It seems to be true that those getting sick are getting good treatment, which obviously helps.
But I guess there is an element of luck, no doubt we'll see deaths soon.
I'm not sure why Matthiasfromhamburg thinks the German response has been good. They have only started getting their act together this week really..
https://www.laweekly.com/10-best-independent-bookstores-in-l-a/
"Donald Trump attacked Joe Biden’s cognitive abilities on Thursday night during an event in the former-vice president’s hometown that could set the tone for an ugly general election.
Appearing at a Fox News town hall in Scranton, Pennsylvania, Trump – who has faced repeated scrutiny over his own mental acuity – said there was “something going on” with Biden, in what may prove a rehearsal for Republican attacks during the presidential election. Thursday marked Trump’s first public event since Biden’s surprisingly strong performance on Super Tuesday, when he won 10 out of 14 states available to propel him into the lead in the Democratic primary.
Trump said he had been “all set” to face Biden’s rival Bernie Sanders, whom he called a “communist”, until the recent vote.
“Then we have this crazy thing that happened on Tuesday, which [Biden] thought was Thursday, but he also said 150 million people were killed with guns and that he was running for the United States Senate. There’s something going on there,” Trump said. "
If Trump is going to begin this line of attack for both men from now, they look almost equally vulnerable to me. Sanders' will get a higher turnout, and Biden more soft republicans, but the similar levels in current polls I don't think lie. Coronavirus is the one thing that could leave Sanders benefitting more.
Foreigner in a foreign country -> Plucky Brit -> [incubation period ] -> Other plucky Brit -> [incubation period]
...you're going to have to wait a long time for any data. If you insist on doing it that way, zero in on a country like Japan that's a couple of weeks ahead of the UK and has already had time to create some data of the type you want to measure.
Of course, the advisory might be no travel, everyone stay at home.
https://twitter.com/julialindau/status/1235714275752267776?s=19
Hope the weather picks up soon. Might help stop the proliferation of the pestilence.
But I really think the Dems should be pushing the *opposing* dementia story hard against Trump, it's not like they'd be short of material.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VFZNvj-HfBU
The key for him last time was that Jim Clyburn of South Carolina endorsed Biden, not only setting of a wave of progress for Biden after that primary with both Buttigieg and Klobuchar pulling out, but undoing a lot of Sanders hard work with black voters, particularly across the South.
Sanders' critiques both of campaign financing and US healthcare impendiments do have merit. Clyburn has received $1 million from pharmaceutical companies and completely excluded them from the Affordable Care Act that he drew up.
The thing about jokes is that they need to be either funny or clever, or preferably both.
Cleese lost that around the time he began screaming at Tesco's customers through a megaphone.
(Still, as he's also a racist bigot he will be defended to the hilt on anything by certain Brexiteers
Voters could just about stomach his priggish do gooder boring personality when compared to hard left terrorist loving Jew hater Jeremy- but if he doesn’t ditch all these hard left policies then his upside is very limited.
https://www.newstatesman.com/culture/observations/2015/12/clash-titans-when-boris-johnson-met-mary-beard
Although the point wasn't pursued, if the US takes this particularly bad you might see it becoming (viewed in retrospect at least) the event that started America's relative decline.
On the other hand it's still probable that any vaccine or cure will originate there, and we'll all have to pay them handsomely to get hold of it.
This thread has mutated
into a less harmful form