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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Starmer now a 94% chance on Betfair to be the next LAB leader

With less than a month to go until the LAB leadership contest ends Starmer moves up to a 94% chance on Betfair  – odds that suggest that he’s a near certainty. 

Read the full story here

TheScreamingEagles

First like Starmer.

Benpointer

First like Starmer!

Foxy

3rd like RLB?

kle4

94% chance? What a loser.

Monkeys

How long does he last before Labour work out the electorate remember him from the last parliament?

Black_Rook

"His arrival at the dispatch box is probably going to mark the end of Johnson’s honeymoon."

Nobody will notice. We'll all be too busy watching the body count climb.

Actually, there's already been talk of Parliament being suspended for a few weeks or months when the epidemic really takes off, so that all the politicians don't get it all at once and then help to spread it around the country. We may have to wait a while for his debut. What a shame.

williamglenn

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1235690480463200256

Anabobazina

Monkeys

Black Rock

A couple of particularly ungracious partisan posts to kick off the thread.

kle4

Assuming they go ahead Starmer is well placed for the local elections. That leaked Labour document predicts pretty massive losses, and if it happens it's mostly Corbyn's fault and if it doesn't Starmer's an instant winner.

Benpointer

TheScreamingEagles said:

First like Starmer.

Boo hiss - inside knowledge!

Jonathan

RLB is out for the count, like Joe Biden.

SandyRentool

A Starmer bounce ahead of the May locals (if they aren't cancelled) would be most welcome.

Jonathan

Boris held his election at about the only moment he could have held it. Swinson has much to answer for.

slade

SandyRentool said:

A Starmer bounce ahead of the May locals (if they aren't cancelled) would be most welcome.

I was at a party meeting tonight and the view is that the local elections will have to be cancelled in the next two weeks to avoid a whole series of issues if nominations go ahead and then they have to be cancelled.

isam

In my local Tesco the shelf where the anti bacterial hand washes usually were was completely empty! Above were some other products, presumably not anti bacterial, and five of these...




The words ‘anti bacterial’ are barely decipherable, in mint green below the leaf symbol. I took 3 and left 2 for some other shrewdie 😊

kle4

Jonathan said:

Boris held his election at about the only moment he could have held it. Swinson has much to answer for.

It certainly does put the pettiness of the arguments about it being 9, 10 or 12 December into perspective. Even compared to other Brexit issues what wasted effort that was.

SandyRentool

I would imagine that the vast majority of people who are going to vote have already cast their ballots. The process is a fortnight too long.

And as others have suggested, the special conference (which isn't a conference) may well get chopped because of the Virus.

dr_spyn

Jonathan said:

Boris held his election at about the only moment he could have held it. Swinson has much to answer for.

as does Corbyn.

Monkeys

https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1235663235573067777

MikeSmithson

SandyRentool said:

I would imagine that the vast majority of people who are going to vote have already cast their ballots. The process is a fortnight too long.

And as others have suggested, the special conference (which isn't a conference) may well get chopped because of the Virus.

Allowing getting on for six weeks for the postal ballot stage was absolute. It was though the whole process has been designed to keep double general election loser Corbyn in office for a few weeks more.

Foxy

https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1235695655693307904?s=09

Richard_Nabavi

isam said:

...
The words ‘anti bacterial’ are barely decipherable, in mint green below the leaf symbol. I took 3 and left 2 for some other shrewdie 😊

Some other shrewdie who doesn't know the difference between a virus and a bacterium?

isam

MikeSmithson said:

SandyRentool said:

I would imagine that the vast majority of people who are going to vote have already cast their ballots. The process is a fortnight too long.

And as others have suggested, the special conference (which isn't a conference) may well get chopped because of the Virus.

Allowing getting on for six weeks for the postal ballot stage was absolute. It was though the whole process has been designed to keep double general election loser Corbyn in office for a few weeks more.

The time since the election should have been used to give the leading candidates actual time in the role, like a practical interview and opportunity for members to see how they deal with leadership trials

What’s the point of Corbyn doing PMQs, visits to flooded areas, TV interviews, anything?

GideonWise

Foxy said:

https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1235695655693307904?s=09

https://youtu.be/ycrqXJYf1SU

Nice little documentary there on Covid.

When the history books are written about the British response I think the conclusion will be: "Donkeys led by lions"

isam

Richard_Nabavi said:

isam said:

...
The words ‘anti bacterial’ are barely decipherable, in mint green below the leaf symbol. I took 3 and left 2 for some other shrewdie 😊

Some other shrewdie who doesn't know the difference between a virus and a bacterium?

Blimey! Why are the shelves all empty?

Richard_Nabavi

On topic: Starmer will be OK. Almost certainly he'll be a better Labour leader than his three immediate predecessors, although that's damning with faint praise given that they ran the gamut from the dismal to the disastrous. All the same, expectations are running too high; at the dispatch box, he'll be fine, but he won't be able by his own talents to make much impact: it's Boris who will destroy the Boris government, not Sir Keir.

rottenborough

Monkeys said:

How long does he last before Labour work out the electorate remember him from the last parliament?

No they wont. The average voter can barely name the PM and the Chancellor.

moonshine

“There is no circumstance where we will extend the Transition period”.

A fair enough comment at the time I suppose.

rcs1000

In Los Angeles, there's the usual bright sunshine and complete lack of public transport, so we'll all be OK.

I just thought everyone should know that.

rottenborough

eadric said:

First hints that Brexit might be paused. Newsnight.

Good. As I have posted here sides would be mad not to extend transition with the virus coming.

Andy_JS

Has Henrietta posted the latest model figures yet?

Jonathan

rottenborough said:

eadric said:

First hints that Brexit might be paused. Newsnight.

Good. As I have posted here sides would be mad not to extend transition with the virus coming.

If madness was a factor, we would not have got this far.

Benpointer

rcs1000 said:

In Los Angeles, there's the usual bright sunshine and complete lack of public transport, so we'll all be OK.

I just thought everyone should know that.

What is 'sunshine'?

rcs1000

eadric said:

First hints that Brexit might be paused. Newsnight.

To be fair, we have other things to worry about right now.

Andy_JS

Germany is doing something right, or they're just lucky. 545 cases and no fatalities.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

williamglenn

Someone else who works in the restaurant of the French National Assembly has coronavirus so there could be a cluster there.

https://www.bfmtv.com/politique/coronavirus-un-depute-lr-hospitalise-avec-une-suspicion-de-contamination-1870046.html

Benpointer

moonshine said:

“There is no circumstance where we will extend the Transition period”.

A fair enough comment at the time I suppose.

I am sure the word 'foreseeable' was intended in there somewhere.

MarqueeMark

Benpointer said:

rcs1000 said:

In Los Angeles, there's the usual bright sunshine and complete lack of public transport, so we'll all be OK.

I just thought everyone should know that.

What is 'sunshine'?

What is "public transport"?

isam

eadric said:

isam said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

isam said:

...
The words ‘anti bacterial’ are barely decipherable, in mint green below the leaf symbol. I took 3 and left 2 for some other shrewdie 😊

Some other shrewdie who doesn't know the difference between a virus and a bacterium?

Blimey! Why are the shelves all empty?

Because it is SOAP and used with water as normal soap its jolly good, for standard handwashing. Use for 20 secs, was thoroughly. hum God Save the Queen etc

Haha I used the self service till, pressed the screen... thought ‘GERMS!’ And used it there and then... drove home in the rain with my hands slipping off the wheel

As for humming GSTQ, I’ve been singing Happy Birthday, but in the style of Marilyn Monroe so I only have to do it once

Richard_Nabavi

Benpointer said:

moonshine said:

“There is no circumstance where we will extend the Transition period”.

A fair enough comment at the time I suppose.

I am sure the word 'foreseeable' was intended in there somewhere.

As in 'do or die, unless as is entirely predictable I haven't got the parliamentary numbers'?

isam

eadric said:

First hints that Brexit might be paused. Newsnight.

Yay! Keep those borders open!

The right to live, love and study in Northern Italy remains ours. The new Romania and Bulgaria in terms of people actually taking advantage of the ‘opportunity’

Benpointer

Richard_Nabavi said:

Benpointer said:

moonshine said:

“There is no circumstance where we will extend the Transition period”.

A fair enough comment at the time I suppose.

I am sure the word 'foreseeable' was intended in there somewhere.

As in 'do or die, unless as is entirely predictable I haven't got the parliamentary numbers'?

'These are my principles... if you don't like them, I have others.'

Benpointer

rcs1000 said:

eadric said:

First hints that Brexit might be paused. Newsnight.

To be fair, we have other things to worry about right now.

How ironic for the UK to be saved from a self-inflicted economic disaster... by an unavoidable economic disaster.

another_richard

kle4 said:

Assuming they go ahead Starmer is well placed for the local elections. That leaked Labour document predicts pretty massive losses, and if it happens it's mostly Corbyn's fault and if it doesn't Starmer's an instant winner.

The Labour document predicting massive losses wasn't leaked but rather an attempt at narrative forming.

another_richard

eadric said:

Look at this list of coronavirus cases in Europe one week ago


Italy 650
Germany 48
France 38
Spain 25
United Kingdom 16
Switzerland 8
Sweden 7
Norway7
Austria 3
Croatia 3
Greece 3
Finland 2
Netherlands 1
San Marino 1
Romania 1
Denmark 1
Estonia 1
Lithuania 1
Macedonia 1
Belgium1



And compares with today, one week later:


1. Italy 3,858
2. Germany 545
3. France 423
4. Spain 282
5. United Kingdom 118
6. Switzerland 118
7. Sweden 94
8. Norway 91
9. Netherlands 82
10. Belgium 50
11. Austria 43
12. Greece 31
13. Denmark 20
14. Ireland 13
15. Czechia 12.....



And so on.


In each country the case numbers have gone up by ten or twelve times, in one week. The samepattern everywhere.


If that continues for another two weeks, we would see:


1.Italy: 400,000
2. Germany: 50,000
3. France: 40,000
4. Spain: 30,000
5. UK: 10,000


In two weeks from now. Italy would - as an example - have 80,000 people needing hospital care, and about 20,000 dead. In two weeks.

What odds are you offering ?

rcs1000

isam said:

eadric said:

First hints that Brexit might be paused. Newsnight.

Yay! Keep those borders open!

The right to live, love and study in Northern Italy remains ours. The new Romania and Bulgaria in terms of people actually taking advantage of the ‘opportunity’

Even when the Brexit transition period is over, people will be largely free to come and go. The virus doesn't seem to have had any problem getting to... oohhh... the US for example.

This is more a recognition that (a) governments are going to be a bit distracted by this whole pandemic issue, and are unlikely to have the time to spend debating pros and cons of various FTAs; and (b) the virus is bringing meaningful economic disruption right now, so adding more is probably not a really smart idea.

williamglenn

eadric said:

Andy_JS said:

Germany is doing something right, or they're just lucky. 545 cases and no fatalities.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Yes. Germany now has SO many cases with no deaths it requires more than a suggestion of "luck". What is happening there?

Could they just be very ahead of the curve on testing?

IshmaelZ

another_richard said:

eadric said:

Look at this list of coronavirus cases in Europe one week ago


Italy 650
Germany 48
France 38
Spain 25
United Kingdom 16
Switzerland 8
Sweden 7
Norway7
Austria 3
Croatia 3
Greece 3
Finland 2
Netherlands 1
San Marino 1
Romania 1
Denmark 1
Estonia 1
Lithuania 1
Macedonia 1
Belgium1



And compares with today, one week later:


1. Italy 3,858
2. Germany 545
3. France 423
4. Spain 282
5. United Kingdom 118
6. Switzerland 118
7. Sweden 94
8. Norway 91
9. Netherlands 82
10. Belgium 50
11. Austria 43
12. Greece 31
13. Denmark 20
14. Ireland 13
15. Czechia 12.....



And so on.


In each country the case numbers have gone up by ten or twelve times, in one week. The samepattern everywhere.


If that continues for another two weeks, we would see:


1.Italy: 400,000
2. Germany: 50,000
3. France: 40,000
4. Spain: 30,000
5. UK: 10,000


In two weeks from now. Italy would - as an example - have 80,000 people needing hospital care, and about 20,000 dead. In two weeks.

What odds are you offering ?

You are looking for a bet about 20,000 people dying?

another_richard

eadric said:

Andy_JS said:

Germany is doing something right, or they're just lucky. 545 cases and no fatalities.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Yes. Germany now has SO many cases with no deaths it requires more than a suggestion of "luck". What is happening there?

They're testing the young people but not the old ?

Benpointer

eadric said:

Look at this list of coronavirus cases in Europe one week ago


Italy 650
Germany 48
France 38
Spain 25
United Kingdom 16
Switzerland 8
Sweden 7
Norway7
Austria 3
Croatia 3
Greece 3
Finland 2
Netherlands 1
San Marino 1
Romania 1
Denmark 1
Estonia 1
Lithuania 1
Macedonia 1
Belgium1



And compares with today, one week later:


1. Italy 3,858
2. Germany 545
3. France 423
4. Spain 282
5. United Kingdom 118
6. Switzerland 118
7. Sweden 94
8. Norway 91
9. Netherlands 82
10. Belgium 50
11. Austria 43
12. Greece 31
13. Denmark 20
14. Ireland 13
15. Czechia 12.....



And so on.


In each country the case numbers have gone up by ten or twelve times, in one week. The samepattern everywhere.


If that continues for another two weeks, we would see:


1.Italy: 400,000
2. Germany: 50,000
3. France: 40,000
4. Spain: 30,000
5. UK: 10,000


In two weeks from now. Italy would - as an example - have 80,000 people needing hospital care, and about 20,000 dead. In two weeks.

That looks like a gross over-extrapolation to me.

Did China go from 3,858 cases to 400,000 in two weeks? Er, no.

CarlottaVance

https://twitter.com/reuters/status/1235700846475636737?s=21

Chameleon

Benpointer said:

eadric said:

Look at this list of coronavirus cases in Europe one week ago


Italy 650
Germany 48
France 38
Spain 25
United Kingdom 16
Switzerland 8
Sweden 7
Norway7
Austria 3
Croatia 3
Greece 3
Finland 2
Netherlands 1
San Marino 1
Romania 1
Denmark 1
Estonia 1
Lithuania 1
Macedonia 1
Belgium1



And compares with today, one week later:


1. Italy 3,858
2. Germany 545
3. France 423
4. Spain 282
5. United Kingdom 118
6. Switzerland 118
7. Sweden 94
8. Norway 91
9. Netherlands 82
10. Belgium 50
11. Austria 43
12. Greece 31
13. Denmark 20
14. Ireland 13
15. Czechia 12.....



And so on.


In each country the case numbers have gone up by ten or twelve times, in one week. The samepattern everywhere.


If that continues for another two weeks, we would see:


1.Italy: 400,000
2. Germany: 50,000
3. France: 40,000
4. Spain: 30,000
5. UK: 10,000


In two weeks from now. Italy would - as an example - have 80,000 people needing hospital care, and about 20,000 dead. In two weeks.

That looks like a gross over-extrapolation to me.

Did China go from 3,858 cases to 400,000 in two weeks? Er, no.

Are Italy about to weld people into buildings and use massively authoritarian measures to enforce quarantines? Although yes, I agree that a large amount of the increase is due to increased testing. Using a 6 days to double estimate (which seems to be on the high end of consensus) 10,000 Italian cases would be around 50k in two weeks.

williamglenn

The CDC are apparently refusing to test a sick nurse who was treating a coronavirus patient.

https://twitter.com/nnubonnie/status/1235663306246860800?s=21

another_richard

IshmaelZ said:

another_richard said:

eadric said:

Look at this list of coronavirus cases in Europe one week ago


Italy 650
Germany 48
France 38
Spain 25
United Kingdom 16
Switzerland 8
Sweden 7
Norway7
Austria 3
Croatia 3
Greece 3
Finland 2
Netherlands 1
San Marino 1
Romania 1
Denmark 1
Estonia 1
Lithuania 1
Macedonia 1
Belgium1



And compares with today, one week later:


1. Italy 3,858
2. Germany 545
3. France 423
4. Spain 282
5. United Kingdom 118
6. Switzerland 118
7. Sweden 94
8. Norway 91
9. Netherlands 82
10. Belgium 50
11. Austria 43
12. Greece 31
13. Denmark 20
14. Ireland 13
15. Czechia 12.....



And so on.


In each country the case numbers have gone up by ten or twelve times, in one week. The samepattern everywhere.


If that continues for another two weeks, we would see:


1.Italy: 400,000
2. Germany: 50,000
3. France: 40,000
4. Spain: 30,000
5. UK: 10,000


In two weeks from now. Italy would - as an example - have 80,000 people needing hospital care, and about 20,000 dead. In two weeks.

What odds are you offering ?

You are looking for a bet about 20,000 people dying?

If the odds are attractive.

Why not ?

We're betting on what demented / dementied oldie will be in control of the US war machine.

Richard_Nabavi

Now here's an oddity: why has the share price of Dignity plc (which fell back sharply last year as a consequence of an unfortunate lack of volume) not gone through the roof?

https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/d/dignity-plc-ordinary-shares-12-48143p

GIN1138

Oh god moron Matt Hanckock's on Question Time along with Mother Beckett !!!!

Early night?

rottenborough

What a thread.

https://twitter.com/mattzarb/status/1235685681415909377

https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1235695501762125825

another_richard

williamglenn said:

The CDC are apparently refusing to test a sick nurse who was treating a coronavirus patient.

https://twitter.com/nnubonnie/status/1235663306246860800?s=21

A consequence of allowing the lawyers too much power.

IanB2

rcs1000 said:

isam said:

eadric said:

First hints that Brexit might be paused. Newsnight.

Yay! Keep those borders open!

The right to live, love and study in Northern Italy remains ours. The new Romania and Bulgaria in terms of people actually taking advantage of the ‘opportunity’

Even when the Brexit transition period is over, people will be largely free to come and go. The virus doesn't seem to have had any problem getting to... oohhh... the US for example.

This is more a recognition that (a) governments are going to be a bit distracted by this whole pandemic issue, and are unlikely to have the time to spend debating pros and cons of various FTAs; and (b) the virus is bringing meaningful economic disruption right now, so adding more is probably not a really smart idea.

Isn’t it just that there can’t be a deal if they can’t shake hands?

rottenborough

eadric said:

More encouragingly, I have been reading some convincing maths/epedemiology on twitter/online that says we should get expect an end to exponential growth very soon - ie in the next couple of weeks, because as soon as the numbers get scary (very soon) people will react like scalded cats and the virus will slow drastically

This may the advantage of social media infodemics, if they make the public "overreact" earlier, and self isolate ASAP?

Will that not lead to a 'v' shape? Big burst now for two or three weeks or whatever, then everyone takes to their cellars. Then it dips. Then everyone sighs relief and comes out to get down to their pub and so it begins again.

another_richard

rottenborough said:

What a thread.

https://twitter.com/mattzarb/status/1235685681415909377

https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1235695501762125825

The comfort zone of the echo chamber.

rottenborough

GIN1138 said:

Oh god moron Matt Hanckock's on Question Time along with Mother Beckett !!!!

Early night?

Layla on for Liberals.

I just don't get why she is seen as a possible leader or next but one. Sorry. Maybe it is just me.

Chameleon

eadric said:

More encouragingly, I have been reading some convincing maths/epedemiology on twitter/online that says we should get expect an end to exponential growth very soon - ie in the next couple of weeks, because as soon as the numbers get scary (very soon) people will react like scalded cats and the virus will slow drastically.

This may the advantage of social media infodemics, if they make the public "overreact" earlier, and self isolate ASAP?

That's my big hope. I can't see people not reacting in a big way to widespread infection in the UK. Given the percentage of jobs that can be done WFH in such a service based economy it shouldn't be awful. Especially if we start seeing grim stories out of Italy.

Who knows though, at the moment it's all theory.

edmundintokyo

IshmaelZ said:

another_richard said:

eadric said:

Look at this list of coronavirus cases in Europe one week ago


Italy 650
Germany 48
France 38
Spain 25
United Kingdom 16
Switzerland 8
Sweden 7
Norway7
Austria 3
Croatia 3
Greece 3
Finland 2
Netherlands 1
San Marino 1
Romania 1
Denmark 1
Estonia 1
Lithuania 1
Macedonia 1
Belgium1



And compares with today, one week later:


1. Italy 3,858
2. Germany 545
3. France 423
4. Spain 282
5. United Kingdom 118
6. Switzerland 118
7. Sweden 94
8. Norway 91
9. Netherlands 82
10. Belgium 50
11. Austria 43
12. Greece 31
13. Denmark 20
14. Ireland 13
15. Czechia 12.....



And so on.


In each country the case numbers have gone up by ten or twelve times, in one week. The samepattern everywhere.


If that continues for another two weeks, we would see:


1.Italy: 400,000
2. Germany: 50,000
3. France: 40,000
4. Spain: 30,000
5. UK: 10,000


In two weeks from now. Italy would - as an example - have 80,000 people needing hospital care, and about 20,000 dead. In two weeks.

What odds are you offering ?

You are looking for a bet about 20,000 people dying?

Do it, markets provide information, information saves lives.

rottenborough

another_richard said:

rottenborough said:

What a thread.

https://twitter.com/mattzarb/status/1235685681415909377

https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1235695501762125825

The comfort zone of the echo chamber.

We are back to the most essential lesson of 2019. Twitter is NOT the electorate. Nor are all the others sitting by you in the gastro pub eating avocado on toast in Hackney before you head out with Owen Jones for some door knocking.

another_richard

rottenborough said:

What a thread.

https://twitter.com/mattzarb/status/1235685681415909377

https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1235695501762125825

BTW who was the rabble rouser ?

He reminded me of one of the characters Lenny Henry played.

Charles

Jonathan said:

Boris held his election at about the only moment he could have held it. Swinson has much to answer for.

Would you prefer a fractious and divided parliament was arguing about COVID?

IshmaelZ

Richard_Nabavi said:

Now here's an oddity: why has the share price of Dignity plc (which fell back sharply last year as a consequence of an unfortunate lack of volume) not gone through the roof?

https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/d/dignity-plc-ordinary-shares-12-48143p

Regular burials are the first thing to go: see, e.g., Defoe, or the reference in Kelly to "corpses packed like lasagna in municipal plague pits."

Andy_JS

Some interesting graphs on this page: daily deaths and growth factor.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-toll/

MarqueeMark

rottenborough said:

GIN1138 said:

Oh god moron Matt Hanckock's on Question Time along with Mother Beckett !!!!

Early night?

Layla on for Liberals.

I just don't get why she is seen as a possible leader or next but one. Sorry. Maybe it is just me.

You're not alone.

Richard_Nabavi

IshmaelZ said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Now here's an oddity: why has the share price of Dignity plc (which fell back sharply last year as a consequence of an unfortunate lack of volume) not gone through the roof?

https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/d/dignity-plc-ordinary-shares-12-48143p

Regular burials are the first thing to go: see, e.g., Defoe, or the reference in Kelly to "corpses packed like lasagna in municipal plague pits."

True, the sweet spot for Dignity plc is a substantial increase but not an explosion in volumes.

Tricky one to price!

Charles

MarqueeMark said:

Benpointer said:

rcs1000 said:

In Los Angeles, there's the usual bright sunshine and complete lack of public transport, so we'll all be OK.

I just thought everyone should know that.

What is 'sunshine'?

What is "public transport"?

BA I believe

GIN1138

rottenborough said:

GIN1138 said:

Oh god moron Matt Hanckock's on Question Time along with Mother Beckett !!!!

Early night?

Layla on for Liberals.

I just don't get why she is seen as a possible leader or next but one. Sorry. Maybe it is just me.

Well it's not like the Lib-Dems have got a large stock of possibles to go at.

TAXI!!!!!

rottenborough

another_richard said:

rottenborough said:

What a thread.

https://twitter.com/mattzarb/status/1235685681415909377

https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1235695501762125825

BTW who was the rabble rouser ?

He reminded me of one of the characters Lenny Henry played.

Academic, philosopher, activist. Socialist. Critical of Obama amongst other things.

There's a wiki entry.

northernpowerhouse2

IshmaelZ said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Now here's an oddity: why has the share price of Dignity plc (which fell back sharply last year as a consequence of an unfortunate lack of volume) not gone through the roof?

https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/d/dignity-plc-ordinary-shares-12-48143p

Regular burials are the first thing to go: see, e.g., Defoe, or the reference in Kelly to "corpses packed like lasagna in municipal plague pits."

Held in Eddie stobart refrigerated lorries. Death certificates needed. Fast track option possible. Mass burials only when can store no longer.

Chameleon

Richard_Nabavi said:

IshmaelZ said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Now here's an oddity: why has the share price of Dignity plc (which fell back sharply last year as a consequence of an unfortunate lack of volume) not gone through the roof?

https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/d/dignity-plc-ordinary-shares-12-48143p

Regular burials are the first thing to go: see, e.g., Defoe, or the reference in Kelly to "corpses packed like lasagna in municipal plague pits."

True, the sweet spot for Dignity plc is a substantial increase but not an explosion in volumes.

Tricky one to price!

Issue with a substantial increase is that it'll be the most vulnerable, so will just be pushing future 'clients' forward to this year, leading to a decline in customers for the next 5 or so years.

matthiasfromhamburg

williamglenn said:

eadric said:

Andy_JS said:

Germany is doing something right, or they're just lucky. 545 cases and no fatalities.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Yes. Germany now has SO many cases with no deaths it requires more than a suggestion of "luck". What is happening there?

Could they just be very ahead of the curve on testing?

From what I can observe our authorities seem to have taken a strategically and procedurally sound approach. They have tested a lot and they seem to have tested the right people.
Those afflicted enjoy a fairly decent standard of care.

All of that, combined with the fact that we have relatively generous capacities and reserves - approx. 4.5 times as many hospital beds per capita, compared to the UK - is a cause for (very cautious) optimism.

Charles

Richard_Nabavi said:

Now here's an oddity: why has the share price of Dignity plc (which fell back sharply last year as a consequence of an unfortunate lack of volume) not gone through the roof?

https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/d/dignity-plc-ordinary-shares-12-48143p

Because they make their money from up selling packages not volume

rcs1000

rottenborough said:

eadric said:

More encouragingly, I have been reading some convincing maths/epedemiology on twitter/online that says we should get expect an end to exponential growth very soon - ie in the next couple of weeks, because as soon as the numbers get scary (very soon) people will react like scalded cats and the virus will slow drastically

This may the advantage of social media infodemics, if they make the public "overreact" earlier, and self isolate ASAP?

Will that not lead to a 'v' shape? Big burst now for two or three weeks or whatever, then everyone takes to their cellars. Then it dips. Then everyone sighs relief and comes out to get down to their pub and so it begins again.

Even that scenario is better, because it allows means hospitals are not overloaded, better treatment measures to be put in place, and a vaccine to potentially be discovered.

rpjs

eadric said:

First hints that Brexit might be paused. Newsnight.

To extend the transition period, first Boris will need to repeal the clause in the EUWA Act that said no extension can be requested. Let’s hope he can get that through Parliament before it’s suspended for the duration. Or I suppose he could try using one of the Henry VIII clauses that’ve been spaffed all over the statute book in recent years.

Foxy

eadric said:

Chameleon said:

Benpointer said:

eadric said:

Look at this list of coronavirus cases in Europe one week ago


Italy 650
Germany 48
France 38
Spain 25
United Kingdom 16
Switzerland 8
Sweden 7
Norway7
Austria 3
Croatia 3
Greece 3
Finland 2
Netherlands 1
San Marino 1
Romania 1
Denmark 1
Estonia 1
Lithuania 1
Macedonia 1
Belgium1



And compares with today, one week later:


1. Italy 3,858
2. Germany 545
3. France 423
4. Spain 282
5. United Kingdom 118
6. Switzerland 118
7. Sweden 94
8. Norway 91
9. Netherlands 82
10. Belgium 50
11. Austria 43
12. Greece 31
13. Denmark 20
14. Ireland 13
15. Czechia 12.....



And so on.


In each country the case numbers have gone up by ten or twelve times, in one week. The samepattern everywhere.


If that continues for another two weeks, we would see:


1.Italy: 400,000
2. Germany: 50,000
3. France: 40,000
4. Spain: 30,000
5. UK: 10,000


In two weeks from now. Italy would - as an example - have 80,000 people needing hospital care, and about 20,000 dead. In two weeks.

That looks like a gross over-extrapolation to me.

Did China go from 3,858 cases to 400,000 in two weeks? Er, no.

Are Italy about to weld people into buildings and use massively authoritarian measures to enforce quarantines? Although yes, I agree that a large amount of the increase is due to increased testing. Using a 6 days to double estimate (which seems to be on the high end of consensus) 10,000 Italian cases would be around 50k in two weeks.

YOu may well be right and it's a function of testing. In which case we are about to see an explosion of cases in the USA

Also, even just 50,000 cases means (on present figures) 10,000-people needed intensive care.

How many ICUs does Italy have?

Italy has 12.2 ICU beds per 100 000 population, so about 7 000. They can probably double that with operating theatres and recovery. We have just 6.6 per capita, and Germany a mammoth 29 per capita.

I think 10% in ICU is a reasonable guess, so aggressive containment saves lives.

Tim_B

Trump doing a town hall in Scranton PA. Joe Biden's home town. Trump won PA by about 40k votes in 2016. The crowd is enthusiastic. He lost Lackawanna county though, which contains Scranton.

northernpowerhouse2

rottenborough said:

another_richard said:

rottenborough said:

What a thread.

https://twitter.com/mattzarb/status/1235685681415909377

https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1235695501762125825

BTW who was the rabble rouser ?

He reminded me of one of the characters Lenny Henry played.

Academic, philosopher, activist. Socialist. Critical of Obama amongst other things.

There's a wiki entry.

Hodges is right, what does a Midwesterner look at that video and think? “This guy is not only not only my side. He’s on everyone else’s side except mine”

rottenborough

Tim_B said:

Trump doing a town hall in Scranton PA. Joe Biden's home town. Trump won PA by about 40k votes in 2016. The crowd is enthusiastic. He lost Lackawanna county though, which contains Scranton.

Trump knows what's coming. A bare knuckle fight.

northernpowerhouse2

rpjs said:

eadric said:

First hints that Brexit might be paused. Newsnight.

To extend the transition period, first Boris will need to repeal the clause in the EUWA Act that said no extension can be requested. Let’s hope he can get that through Parliament before it’s suspended for the duration. Or I suppose he could try using one of the Henry VIII clauses that’ve been spaffed all over the statute book in recent years.

Henry VIII Clause = the correct and utterly normal use of royal prerogative.

MikeL

Maybe it's just as well the Labour leadership ballot is going on for another month:

"Several leadership and deputy leadership campaigns have told the Guardian their canvassers are picking up a large volume of party members still awaiting their ballot.

The issue appears to be particularly acute for new members who joined the party after December’s election, believed to number more than 100,000, who are being subjected to a verification process that involves checking their address against the electoral roll."

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/mar/05/labour-faces-claims-members-yet-to-receive-leadership-ballots

rottenborough

northernpowerhouse2 said:

rottenborough said:

another_richard said:

rottenborough said:

What a thread.

https://twitter.com/mattzarb/status/1235685681415909377

https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1235695501762125825

BTW who was the rabble rouser ?

He reminded me of one of the characters Lenny Henry played.

Academic, philosopher, activist. Socialist. Critical of Obama amongst other things.

There's a wiki entry.

Hodges is right, what does a Midwesterner look at that video and think? “This guy is not only not only my side. He’s on everyone else’s side except mine”

In the rust belt towns they will probably say what the fuck is he talking about

rcs1000

rpjs said:

eadric said:

First hints that Brexit might be paused. Newsnight.

To extend the transition period, first Boris will need to repeal the clause in the EUWA Act that said no extension can be requested. Let’s hope he can get that through Parliament before it’s suspended for the duration. Or I suppose he could try using one of the Henry VIII clauses that’ve been spaffed all over the statute book in recent years.

Won't they pass a "COVID-19 Emergency Powers Act", that will also allow the govt to extend the implementation time if it so desires?

Chameleon

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1235714551871606785?s=20

Richard_Tyndall

rpjs said:

eadric said:

First hints that Brexit might be paused. Newsnight.

To extend the transition period, first Boris will need to repeal the clause in the EUWA Act that said no extension can be requested. Let’s hope he can get that through Parliament before it’s suspended for the duration. Or I suppose he could try using one of the Henry VIII clauses that’ve been spaffed all over the statute book in recent years.

He doesn't need to. The Civil Contingencies Act can be used to suspend or supersede practically every law on the statute books.

LostPassword

williamglenn said:

The CDC are apparently refusing to test a sick nurse who was treating a coronavirus patient.

https://twitter.com/nnubonnie/status/1235663306246860800?s=21

That is insane. Is the CDC like the EPA in that it is led by political appointees?

I don't understand how the situation could be so bad.

MikeL

Per link below Germany has more than doubled today:

Yesterday - 262
Today - 545

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

Pulpstar

rottenborough said:

northernpowerhouse2 said:

rottenborough said:

another_richard said:

rottenborough said:

What a thread.

https://twitter.com/mattzarb/status/1235685681415909377

https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1235695501762125825

BTW who was the rabble rouser ?

He reminded me of one of the characters Lenny Henry played.

Academic, philosopher, activist. Socialist. Critical of Obama amongst other things.

There's a wiki entry.

Hodges is right, what does a Midwesterner look at that video and think? “This guy is not only not only my side. He’s on everyone else’s side except mine”

In the rust belt towns they will probably say what the fuck is he talking about

The biggest rejection of Sanders hasn't been by white voters in the rust belt, it's been by black voters in the south.

Chameleon

eadric said:

Chameleon said:

Benpointer said:

eadric said:

Look at this list of coronavirus cases in Europe one week ago


Italy 650
Germany 48
France 38
Spain 25
United Kingdom 16
Switzerland 8
Sweden 7
Norway7
Austria 3
Croatia 3
Greece 3
Finland 2
Netherlands 1
San Marino 1
Romania 1
Denmark 1
Estonia 1
Lithuania 1
Macedonia 1
Belgium1



And compares with today, one week later:


1. Italy 3,858
2. Germany 545
3. France 423
4. Spain 282
5. United Kingdom 118
6. Switzerland 118
7. Sweden 94
8. Norway 91
9. Netherlands 82
10. Belgium 50
11. Austria 43
12. Greece 31
13. Denmark 20
14. Ireland 13
15. Czechia 12.....



And so on.


In each country the case numbers have gone up by ten or twelve times, in one week. The samepattern everywhere.


If that continues for another two weeks, we would see:


1.Italy: 400,000
2. Germany: 50,000
3. France: 40,000
4. Spain: 30,000
5. UK: 10,000


In two weeks from now. Italy would - as an example - have 80,000 people needing hospital care, and about 20,000 dead. In two weeks.

That looks like a gross over-extrapolation to me.

Did China go from 3,858 cases to 400,000 in two weeks? Er, no.

Are Italy about to weld people into buildings and use massively authoritarian measures to enforce quarantines? Although yes, I agree that a large amount of the increase is due to increased testing. Using a 6 days to double estimate (which seems to be on the high end of consensus) 10,000 Italian cases would be around 50k in two weeks.

YOu may well be right and it's a function of testing. In which case we are about to see an explosion of cases in the USA

Also, even just 50,000 cases means (on present figures) 10,000-people needed intensive care.

How many ICUs does Italy have?

Hmm, even Italy is reporting only 9% of cases in ICU. But yes, I agree that the USA has a massive amount of cases, that much is clear to anyone with a brain.

However there's no indication that the virus doubles every few days, 5-6 looks far more realistic. However if 50 people got through 43 days ago... That's near enough 20k cases. Can the US track and isolate 10k cases in the next 6 days? Because if not the number of cases will keep rising...

Andrew

Richard_Nabavi said:

Some other shrewdie who doesn't know the difference between a virus and a bacterium?

My local tesco had the same, literally all the handwash cleared out. Fortunately I have a 5 litre refill.....

rottenborough

Pulpstar said:

rottenborough said:

northernpowerhouse2 said:

rottenborough said:

another_richard said:

rottenborough said:

What a thread.

https://twitter.com/mattzarb/status/1235685681415909377

https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1235695501762125825

BTW who was the rabble rouser ?

He reminded me of one of the characters Lenny Henry played.

Academic, philosopher, activist. Socialist. Critical of Obama amongst other things.

There's a wiki entry.

Hodges is right, what does a Midwesterner look at that video and think? “This guy is not only not only my side. He’s on everyone else’s side except mine”

In the rust belt towns they will probably say what the fuck is he talking about

The biggest rejection of Sanders hasn't been by white voters in the rust belt, it's been by black voters in the south.

I rather suspect they will say the same thing about that advert.

In the woke college towns maybe it gets a listen.

matthiasfromhamburg

eadric said:

matthiasfromhamburg said:

williamglenn said:

eadric said:

Andy_JS said:

Germany is doing something right, or they're just lucky. 545 cases and no fatalities.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Yes. Germany now has SO many cases with no deaths it requires more than a suggestion of "luck". What is happening there?

Could they just be very ahead of the curve on testing?

From what I can observe our authorities seem to have taken a strategically and procedurally sound approach. They have tested a lot and they seem to have tested the right people.
Those afflicted enjoy a fairly decent standard of care.

All of that, combined with the fact that we have relatively generous capacities and reserves - approx. 4.5 times as many hospital beds per capita, compared to the UK - is a cause for (very cautious) optimism.

On the other hand, you have one of the biggest case numbers outside Asia, and it is increasing faster than almost anywhere

545 cases, with barely a handful recovered.

I'd wait a bit before gloating about your excellent preparedness, TBH

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1235714551871606785?s=20

You're about 4 days from being Italy.

Thank you very much for your kind concern.

rottenborough

https://twitter.com/balajis/status/1234879748083503105

For Henrietta.

rottenborough

CDC would not test as she was wearing the right gear. So no need.

@eadric ??


https://twitter.com/balajis/status/1235718089553125378

alterego

Starmer who?