Doe he means, when he writes 'working very hard' mean that he's making testing so expensive that no-one undertakes it? Death rate against confirmed cases looks high.
US pollsters must be breathing a sigh of relief, they'll at least know they need to poll Sanders and Biden H2H now, we should also start seeing lots more Sanders/Trump and Biden/Trump H2H now also.
I predict the British public will go from not giving a toss to mad panic within a couple of days.
Please just wash your hands and stop getting on public transport coughing and spluttering. That would be a start.
I think you are right...
Spot on.
I know a lot of people already who have gone from scorn to deep concern.
I certainly have changed my outlook. I haven't got nutso buy 1000 bog rolls nonsense (Mrs U does that anyway when there is an offer on at CostCo), but certainly been down the shops and bought a decent supply of things that can last months.
Doe he means, when he writes 'working very hard' mean that he's making testing so expensive that no-one undertakes it? Death rate against confirmed cases looks high.
I suspect because confirmed cases is very well below actual ones.
I am not fan of Boris, but this article is massively unfair to him and Hunt...stay classy...
There’s something very weird about the choice of Jeremy Hunt as the health committee’s chair. Rather like putting the chief suspect in charge of a murder investigation.
Doe he means, when he writes 'working very hard' mean that he's making testing so expensive that no-one undertakes it? Death rate against confirmed cases looks high.
I suspect because confirmed cases is very well below actual ones.
Hmm, I knew I was weird, but turns out I am one of the 11% weird. Still organising books alphabetically by title would be truly insane. twitter.com/YouGov/status/1235533402234933248
DVDs are organised by title. Foyles (when it was the biggest bookshop in the world) used to organise books by publisher! And iirc there was a Two Ronnies sketch where they were organised by colour.
As my eyesight fades, I'm now Kindle-dependent and you'd have thought Amazon would have come up with better and less clunky ways of organising books on their device.
I am not fan of Boris, but this article is massively unfair to him and Hunt...stay classy...
There’s something very weird about the choice of Jeremy Hunt as the health committee’s chair. Rather like putting the chief suspect in charge of a murder investigation.
There must be a prospect of a weakening of the outbreak as temperatures warm up. Here in southern Spain we're consistently above 23 degrees now and have far fewer cases than in the centre and north where it's still quite chilly and rainy. Also to be honest I think the UK figures are quite a bit less than I expected by now. For me the jury is still out on how bad it's gonna get.
Hmm, I knew I was weird, but turns out I am one of the 11% weird. Still organising books alphabetically by title would be truly insane. twitter.com/YouGov/status/1235533402234933248
DVDs are organised by title. Foyles (when it was the biggest bookshop in the world) used to organise books by publisher! And iirc there was a Two Ronnies sketch where they were organised by colour.
As my eyesight fades, I'm now Kindle-dependent and you'd have thought Amazon would have come up with better and less clunky ways of organising books on their device.
There must be a prospect of a weakening of the outbreak as temperatures warm up. Here in southern Spain we're consistently above 23 degrees now and have far fewer cases than in the centre and north where it's still quite chilly and rainy. Also to be honest I think the UK figures are quite a bit less than I expected by now. For me the jury is still out on how bad it's gonna get.
There must be a prospect of a weakening of the outbreak as temperatures warm up. Here in southern Spain we're consistently above 23 degrees now and have far fewer cases than in the centre and north where it's still quite chilly and rainy. Also to be honest I think the UK figures are quite a bit less than I expected by now. For me the jury is still out on how bad it's gonna get.
That has to be the hope, but a WHO expert I saw doing a Q&A yesterday said it really is unknown at this stage if heat will reduce its spread or effect.
I predict the British public will go from not giving a toss to mad panic within a couple of days.
Please just wash your hands and stop getting on public transport coughing and spluttering. That would be a start.
I think you are right...
Spot on.
I know a lot of people already who have gone from scorn to deep concern.
I certainly have changed my outlook. I haven't got nutso buy 1000 bog rolls nonsense (Mrs U does that anyway when there is an offer on at CostCo), but certainly been down the shops and bought a decent supply of things that can last months.
Sainsbury's yesterday seemed very short of Coke, of all things.
Doe he means, when he writes 'working very hard' mean that he's making testing so expensive that no-one undertakes it? Death rate against confirmed cases looks high.
Do you think someone will tell him that the US hasn't actually closed its borders?
I predict the British public will go from not giving a toss to mad panic within a couple of days.
Please just wash your hands and stop getting on public transport coughing and spluttering. That would be a start.
I think you are right...
Spot on.
I know a lot of people already who have gone from scorn to deep concern.
I have all the ingredients on their way for about ten litres of homebrew alcohol +60% gel. The stuff is sold out everywhere. All future stocks are going to almost certainly get commandeered for essential services use in the short term. While everyone else told to just use soap and water.
We've got parents, grand children, our grand child's nursery. They just wont be able to get hold of it.
I am not fan of Boris, but this article is massively unfair to him and Hunt...stay classy...
There’s something very weird about the choice of Jeremy Hunt as the health committee’s chair. Rather like putting the chief suspect in charge of a murder investigation.
I predict the British public will go from not giving a toss to mad panic within a couple of days.
Please just wash your hands and stop getting on public transport coughing and spluttering. That would be a start.
I think you are right...
Spot on.
I know a lot of people already who have gone from scorn to deep concern.
I have all the ingredients on their way for about ten litres of homebrew alcohol +60% gel. The stuff is sold out everywhere. All future stocks are going to almost certainly get commandeered for essential services use in the short term. While everyone else told to just use soap and water.
We've got parents, grand children, our grand child's nursery. They just wont be able to get hold of it.
"just use soap and water": soap and water is (at least) not inferior to hand sanitiser - sanitiser's usp is its portability and independence from water supplies. So your gc will be fine unless there's no basin at the nursery.
Hmm, I knew I was weird, but turns out I am one of the 11% weird. Still organising books alphabetically by title would be truly insane. twitter.com/YouGov/status/1235533402234933248
I organise mine by colour and tone so that when you stand back on the other side of the room, they act like elongated pixels and form a smiley face.
I am not fan of Boris, but this article is massively unfair to him and Hunt...stay classy...
There’s something very weird about the choice of Jeremy Hunt as the health committee’s chair. Rather like putting the chief suspect in charge of a murder investigation.
Another thing that Trump may be right about. Coronavirus looks likely to die out in warmer weather.
A tiny fraction of those infected live in the southern hemisphere where it's currently summer. The worst affected southern country is Australia w 42 cases, 40 of which were infected overseas. Ecuador is second with 7 cases where 1 woman travelling from a hotspot infected 6 other people on her return.
I think I've heard community transmission being described as distinct from local transmission and involving an unknown chain of infection. If that's right, and based on the 30 mins of ropey research that's gone into the above thinking.... only 2 people have been infected through community transmission in the whole southern hemisphere.
In the northern hemisphere, there are no hotspots where the daily highest temperature in Feb is above 12C.
Stong caveats around the fact that it's v rough research based on hasty internet searches and that it depends on the recorded figures being right. (But if the reported figures are wrong, they're systematically more positive in warmer countries which an alternative interesting hypothesis.)
Another thing that Trump may be right about. Coronavirus looks likely to die out in warmer weather.
A tiny fraction of those infected live in the southern hemisphere where it's currently summer. The worst affected southern country is Australia w 42 cases, 40 of which were infected overseas. Ecuador is second with 7 cases where 1 woman travelling from a hotspot infected 6 other people on her return.
I think I've heard community transmission being described as distinct from local transmission and involving an unknown chain of infection. If that's right, and based on the 30 mins of ropey research that's gone into the above thinking.... only 2 people have been infected through community transmission in the whole southern hemisphere.
In the northern hemisphere, there are no hotspots where the daily highest temperature is above 12C.
Stong caveats around the fact that it's v rough research based on hasty internet searches and that it depends on the recorded figures being right. (But if the reported figures are wrong, they're systematically more positive in warmer countries which an alternative interesting hypothesis.)
Nice to think you were right. Tehran currently getting 16 and 17C days though, which we won't hugely outperform if we get a shit summer.
I predict the British public will go from not giving a toss to mad panic within a couple of days.
Please just wash your hands and stop getting on public transport coughing and spluttering. That would be a start.
I think you are right...
Spot on.
I know a lot of people already who have gone from scorn to deep concern.
I certainly have changed my outlook. I haven't got nutso buy 1000 bog rolls nonsense (Mrs U does that anyway when there is an offer on at CostCo), but certainly been down the shops and bought a decent supply of things that can last months.
Sainsbury's yesterday seemed very short of Coke, of all things.
Well, if they've run out of disinfectant washes, it's the next best thing.
Nice to think you were right. Tehran currently getting 16 and 17C days though, which we won't hugely outperform if we get a shit summer.
Agreed. But average Feb temp high was 12C. And I have no idea whatsoever as to what temp constitutes too warm for easy spreading. It's certainly interesting that so few cases in warm weather countries.
I really, really want to see a Leave/Remain voter poll on how serious coronavirus is.
As someone who voted remain but now supports leave, and am in the highest risk group, I believe coronavirus is serious but people need to take sensible precautions and follow advice.
In my case my wife and I may defer our Canada trip from May to September but we are leaving that decision to the last minute
Another thing that Trump may be right about. Coronavirus looks likely to die out in warmer weather.
A tiny fraction of those infected live in the southern hemisphere where it's currently summer. The worst affected southern country is Australia w 42 cases, 40 of which were infected overseas. Ecuador is second with 7 cases where 1 woman travelling from a hotspot infected 6 other people on her return.
I think I've heard community transmission being described as distinct from local transmission and involving an unknown chain of infection. If that's right, and based on the 30 mins of ropey research that's gone into the above thinking.... only 2 people have been infected through community transmission in the whole southern hemisphere.
In the northern hemisphere, there are no hotspots where the daily highest temperature in Feb is above 12C.
Stong caveats around the fact that it's v rough research based on hasty internet searches and that it depends on the recorded figures being right. (But if the reported figures are wrong, they're systematically more positive in warmer countries which an alternative interesting hypothesis.)
I am not fan of Boris, but this article is massively unfair to him and Hunt...stay classy...
There’s something very weird about the choice of Jeremy Hunt as the health committee’s chair. Rather like putting the chief suspect in charge of a murder investigation.
Tbf to Trump, he has a point - as of yesterday it was 5.6% in the USA.
Doesn't he have a point though? There will probably be many many undiagnosed mild cases.
He's absolutely correct. With good medical care, the fatality rate is sub 1%.
The problem is not the 1%, it's the 10% who need intensive care. How many of those recover if there is no decent medical care? Who will look after them when they're wheezing and struggling to breathe at home?
And that is very much the risk.
If 1% of people, and those mostly elderly, die of the Coronavirus, then it's not much fun. But the world continues pretty much as it was.
If one in ten people requires intensive care over the course of just three or four months, then that will shake the world.
Robert, you posted something brilliant last night and I've now totally forgotten what it was!
Another thing that Trump may be right about. Coronavirus looks likely to die out in warmer weather.
A tiny fraction of those infected live in the southern hemisphere where it's currently summer. The worst affected southern country is Australia w 42 cases, 40 of which were infected overseas. Ecuador is second with 7 cases where 1 woman travelling from a hotspot infected 6 other people on her return.
I think I've heard community transmission being described as distinct from local transmission and involving an unknown chain of infection. If that's right, and based on the 30 mins of ropey research that's gone into the above thinking.... only 2 people have been infected through community transmission in the whole southern hemisphere.
In the northern hemisphere, there are no hotspots where the daily highest temperature in Feb is above 12C.
Stong caveats around the fact that it's v rough research based on hasty internet searches and that it depends on the recorded figures being right. (But if the reported figures are wrong, they're systematically more positive in warmer countries which an alternative interesting hypothesis.)
If London has 25 confirmed cases I wonder what would be a reasonable estimate for how many people in London have the virus today. A bigger number than 25 obviously but how much bigger. Could it, for example, be in the hundreds? The thousands even? Or will it more likely be about, say, 50, that sort of thing?
Authorities confirm first UK death from coronavirus
The Royal Berkshire NHS Trust has confirmed an older patient is the first to die from the coronavirus in the UK.
The trust said in a statement:
Sadly, we can confirm that an older patient with underlying health conditions has died. The patient has previously been in and out of hospital for non-coronavirus reasons, but on this occasion was admitted and last night tested positive for coronavirus.
The family has been informed and our thoughts are with them at this difficult time.
We will not be commenting further and ask that everybody respects the family’s privacy.”
I predict the British public will go from not giving a toss to mad panic within a couple of days.
Please just wash your hands and stop getting on public transport coughing and spluttering. That would be a start.
I think you are right...
Spot on.
I know a lot of people already who have gone from scorn to deep concern.
I certainly have changed my outlook. I haven't got nutso buy 1000 bog rolls nonsense (Mrs U does that anyway when there is an offer on at CostCo), but certainly been down the shops and bought a decent supply of things that can last months.
Sainsbury's yesterday seemed very short of Coke, of all things.
Well, if they've run out of disinfectant washes, it's the next best thing.
My in-laws use cola (I assume of a cheaper variety) as toilet cleaner (septic tank, they don't want to use bleach, I lack knowledge with septic tanks as to whether that's necessary, although I guess using a lot of bleach would be a problem)
Somebody called it on the previous thread as the reason for the delay today. I presumed they were double checking all the info.
Funny how it is announced after the markets have shut....
Yes TLG86 called it right.
Sounds it is was a very sick individual. Statement says it was somebody who had been in and out of hospital on a regular basis and arrived again there yesterday and was tested as precaution and unfortunately died today.
Still I am sure our press will treatment this carefully....Front Page..Killer Virus Takes First UK Victim, CHO says more will follow....
If London has 25 confirmed cases I wonder what would be a reasonable estimate for how many people in London have the virus today. A bigger number than 25 obviously but how much bigger. Could it, for example, be in the hundreds? The thousands even? Or will it more likely be about, say, 50, that sort of thing?
I live in London.
Almost certainly hundreds, probably thousands imo. But that is a tiny percentage of the population still so very low chance of catching it today or tomorrow for example. For the next few weeks the chance will increase, so my suggestion is enjoy this week while you can and save the worrying for later.
As someone who voted remain but now supports leave, and am in the highest risk group, I believe coronavirus is serious but people need to take sensible precautions and follow advice.
In my case my wife and I may defer our Canada trip from May to September but we are leaving that decision to the last minute
My views of a few days back remains unchanged:
1) Those with pre-existing pulmonary and respiratory conditions have every right to be concerned and those caring for them and close to them will also be concerned. Trying to mitigate the risk of infection for those people (even if that means self-isolation) has to be a priority.
2) The impact of large scale infection is going to be varied - transport services will suffer if a significant number of drivers are off sick. That in turn will disrupt travel for many others as services are involuntarily reduced,
3) I'm worried there are those who will try to continue even if they are sick because they literally cannot afford to be sick or miss a day's pay. That's how this will spread - from those who can't afford to self-isolate.
4) The economic shock of all this is going to be interesting - bothering about 1000 point variations in the DJIA is one thing but is there going to be a significant effect especially in Q1 of 20/21. Straws in the wind suggest there will be a hit to be taken and of course if the virus becomes significant at home the weakened retail estate may suffer worst.
Another thing that Trump may be right about. Coronavirus looks likely to die out in warmer weather.
A tiny fraction of those infected live in the southern hemisphere where it's currently summer. The worst affected southern country is Australia w 42 cases, 40 of which were infected overseas. Ecuador is second with 7 cases where 1 woman travelling from a hotspot infected 6 other people on her return.
I think I've heard community transmission being described as distinct from local transmission and involving an unknown chain of infection. If that's right, and based on the 30 mins of ropey research that's gone into the above thinking.... only 2 people have been infected through community transmission in the whole southern hemisphere.
In the northern hemisphere, there are no hotspots where the daily highest temperature in Feb is above 12C.
Stong caveats around the fact that it's v rough research based on hasty internet searches and that it depends on the recorded figures being right. (But if the reported figures are wrong, they're systematically more positive in warmer countries which an alternative interesting hypothesis.)
What's the original thing he was right about?
Talking to PHE there is little evidence that seasonal factors make very much difference to the virus.
Attempts to delay the impact to the summer are to do with availability of NHS Resources - eg we are still in the trailing edge of the "seasonal flu" period, and they are still getting approx. 1 person per week per 10,000 pop going to GPs with flu-like symptoms.
The numbers for hospitalisation last week were 1 per 100,000 pop ie approx. 600 across the country.
Another thing that Trump may be right about. Coronavirus looks likely to die out in warmer weather.
A tiny fraction of those infected live in the southern hemisphere where it's currently summer. The worst affected southern country is Australia w 42 cases, 40 of which were infected overseas. Ecuador is second with 7 cases where 1 woman travelling from a hotspot infected 6 other people on her return.
I think I've heard community transmission being described as distinct from local transmission and involving an unknown chain of infection. If that's right, and based on the 30 mins of ropey research that's gone into the above thinking.... only 2 people have been infected through community transmission in the whole southern hemisphere.
In the northern hemisphere, there are no hotspots where the daily highest temperature in Feb is above 12C.
Stong caveats around the fact that it's v rough research based on hasty internet searches and that it depends on the recorded figures being right. (But if the reported figures are wrong, they're systematically more positive in warmer countries which an alternative interesting hypothesis.)
What's the original thing he was right about?
Talking to PHE there is little evidence that seasonal factors make very much difference to the virus.
Attempts to delay the impact to the summer are to do with availability of NHS Resources - eg we are still in the trailing edge of the "seasonal flu" period, and they are still getting approx. 1 person per week per 10,000 pop going to GPs with flu-like symptoms.
The numbers for hospitalisation last week were 1 per 100,000 pop ie approx. 600 across the country.
The interview with WHO expert yesterday I saw said they just didn't know if it made a difference because the majority of the cases had been in the middle of winter in cold countries...and at present they just don't know enough about how it works to be able to say much more....but things like more UV light does help to generally kill things off faster that are on surfaces etc.
As someone who voted remain but now supports leave, and am in the highest risk group, I believe coronavirus is serious but people need to take sensible precautions and follow advice.
In my case my wife and I may defer our Canada trip from May to September but we are leaving that decision to the last minute
My views of a few days back remains unchanged:
1) Those with pre-existing pulmonary and respiratory conditions have every right to be concerned and those caring for them and close to them will also be concerned. Trying to mitigate the risk of infection for those people (even if that means self-isolation) has to be a priority.
2) The impact of large scale infection is going to be varied - transport services will suffer if a significant number of drivers are off sick. That in turn will disrupt travel for many others as services are involuntarily reduced,
3) I'm worried there are those who will try to continue even if they are sick because they literally cannot afford to be sick or miss a day's pay. That's how this will spread - from those who can't afford to self-isolate.
4) The economic shock of all this is going to be interesting - bothering about 1000 point variations in the DJIA is one thing but is there going to be a significant effect especially in Q1 of 20/21. Straws in the wind suggest there will be a hit to be taken and of course if the virus becomes significant at home the weakened retail estate may suffer worst.
I think I need to sterilise my gut this evening with at least 4 pints of IPA. That should do it.
Neat Woods 100 Navy Rum is 57% alcohol, and the sort of concentration needed to kill the Coronavirus. Need to keep it in contact for 30 sec or more, so would recommend a triple at least.
I am not fan of Boris, but this article is massively unfair to him and Hunt...stay classy...
There’s something very weird about the choice of Jeremy Hunt as the health committee’s chair. Rather like putting the chief suspect in charge of a murder investigation.
As someone who voted remain but now supports leave, and am in the highest risk group, I believe coronavirus is serious but people need to take sensible precautions and follow advice.
In my case my wife and I may defer our Canada trip from May to September but we are leaving that decision to the last minute
My views of a few days back remains unchanged:
1) Those with pre-existing pulmonary and respiratory conditions have every right to be concerned and those caring for them and close to them will also be concerned. Trying to mitigate the risk of infection for those people (even if that means self-isolation) has to be a priority.
2) The impact of large scale infection is going to be varied - transport services will suffer if a significant number of drivers are off sick. That in turn will disrupt travel for many others as services are involuntarily reduced,
3) I'm worried there are those who will try to continue even if they are sick because they literally cannot afford to be sick or miss a day's pay. That's how this will spread - from those who can't afford to self-isolate.
4) The economic shock of all this is going to be interesting - bothering about 1000 point variations in the DJIA is one thing but is there going to be a significant effect especially in Q1 of 20/21. Straws in the wind suggest there will be a hit to be taken and of course if the virus becomes significant at home the weakened retail estate may suffer worst.
I think this is right.
Of course, for anyone who succumbs or loses a loved one this will be a terrible episode but for most I think the impact is going to be economic and social (i.e. their lives being constrained).
(PS Tbf Trump may well prove to be right about the fatality rate but for now the best figures we have are the WHO's.)
I am not fan of Boris, but this article is massively unfair to him and Hunt...stay classy...
There’s something very weird about the choice of Jeremy Hunt as the health committee’s chair. Rather like putting the chief suspect in charge of a murder investigation.
There must be a prospect of a weakening of the outbreak as temperatures warm up. Here in southern Spain we're consistently above 23 degrees now and have far fewer cases than in the centre and north where it's still quite chilly and rainy. Also to be honest I think the UK figures are quite a bit less than I expected by now. For me the jury is still out on how bad it's gonna get.
I thought most of Iran had been in the mid-20s for a while, and it doesn't seem to have helped.
As I talked to my contacts—many of them scientists, startup founders, and investors who closely track technology trends—I heard stories of people renting remote cabins and others who’d liquidated their entire stock portfolios.
Dr Foxy serious question...my parents are elderly and tick all the boxes for the high risk factors.
As I said down thread, I have kinda of gone and locked them away, and they have emergency supply of provisions. However, I am also going to order home delivery from supermarkets.
What precautions should they be taking with the food that arrives? Should they avoid fresh foods?
I am not fan of Boris, but this article is massively unfair to him and Hunt...stay classy...
There’s something very weird about the choice of Jeremy Hunt as the health committee’s chair. Rather like putting the chief suspect in charge of a murder investigation.
Comments
I know a lot of people already who have gone from scorn to deep concern.
There’s something very weird about the choice of Jeremy Hunt as the health committee’s chair. Rather like putting the chief suspect in charge of a murder investigation.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/mar/05/as-chris-whitty-provides-a-dose-of-reality-boris-is-just-an-annoying-distraction
As my eyesight fades, I'm now Kindle-dependent and you'd have thought Amazon would have come up with better and less clunky ways of organising books on their device.
That would leave her in the perfect position to be Dem nominee if Biden falls under a bus.
I have taken a pint's worth.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gwVxXEYrgZk
We've got parents, grand children, our grand child's nursery. They just wont be able to get hold of it.
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1235565227250335745?s=20
Unremittingly graceless, clumsy, ugly, predictable, sneering, trashy and persistently unfunny.
I'd imagine only the very hard-core Guardianistas can take those columns neat.
And those are its good points!
Let's hope Republicans remember to wash their hands even though it isnt a big problem.
A tiny fraction of those infected live in the southern hemisphere where it's currently summer. The worst affected southern country is Australia w 42 cases, 40 of which were infected overseas. Ecuador is second with 7 cases where 1 woman travelling from a hotspot infected 6 other people on her return.
I think I've heard community transmission being described as distinct from local transmission and involving an unknown chain of infection. If that's right, and based on the 30 mins of ropey research that's gone into the above thinking.... only 2 people have been infected through community transmission in the whole southern hemisphere.
In the northern hemisphere, there are no hotspots where the daily highest temperature in Feb is above 12C.
Stong caveats around the fact that it's v rough research based on hasty internet searches and that it depends on the recorded figures being right. (But if the reported figures are wrong, they're systematically more positive in warmer countries which an alternative interesting hypothesis.)
Nice to think you were right. Tehran currently getting 16 and 17C days though, which we won't hugely outperform if we get a shit summer.
Agreed. But average Feb temp high was 12C. And I have no idea whatsoever as to what temp constitutes too warm for easy spreading. It's certainly interesting that so few cases in warm weather countries.
Not Scared 75R/70L
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/s08s3tnmu3/Internal_Coronavirus_200302.pdf
In my case my wife and I may defer our Canada trip from May to September but we are leaving that decision to the last minute
I had to check whether he was talking about the USA.
Older patient with underlying conditions.
Funny how it is announced after the markets have shut....
I live in London.
Authorities confirm first UK death from coronavirus
The Royal Berkshire NHS Trust has confirmed an older patient is the first to die from the coronavirus in the UK.
The trust said in a statement:
Sadly, we can confirm that an older patient with underlying health conditions has died. The patient has previously been in and out of hospital for non-coronavirus reasons, but on this occasion was admitted and last night tested positive for coronavirus.
The family has been informed and our thoughts are with them at this difficult time.
We will not be commenting further and ask that everybody respects the family’s privacy.”
But the real bombshell today was that the peak period is likely to be 3 weeks and involve HALF the cases.
To go all @eadric : That is meltdown territory.
Still I am sure our press will treatment this carefully....Front Page..Killer Virus Takes First UK Victim, CHO says more will follow....
I am deeply relieved not to see a fckwitted partisan divide.
7.5% -> 15% -> 30% -> 60%
Adjust the starting point up or down as you want to believe.
Which one does he want to pick?
1) Those with pre-existing pulmonary and respiratory conditions have every right to be concerned and those caring for them and close to them will also be concerned. Trying to mitigate the risk of infection for those people (even if that means self-isolation) has to be a priority.
2) The impact of large scale infection is going to be varied - transport services will suffer if a significant number of drivers are off sick. That in turn will disrupt travel for many others as services are involuntarily reduced,
3) I'm worried there are those who will try to continue even if they are sick because they literally cannot afford to be sick or miss a day's pay. That's how this will spread - from those who can't afford to self-isolate.
4) The economic shock of all this is going to be interesting - bothering about 1000 point variations in the DJIA is one thing but is there going to be a significant effect especially in Q1 of 20/21. Straws in the wind suggest there will be a hit to be taken and of course if the virus becomes significant at home the weakened retail estate may suffer worst.
Attempts to delay the impact to the summer are to do with availability of NHS Resources - eg we are still in the trailing edge of the "seasonal flu" period, and they are still getting approx. 1 person per week per 10,000 pop going to GPs with flu-like symptoms.
The numbers for hospitalisation last week were 1 per 100,000 pop ie approx. 600 across the country.
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/870503/Weekly_national_influenza_report_week_10_2020.pdf
This message is not supported by the liver unit!
Trump is of course a comic God. Only a truly imaginative and funny individual could have created such a comic monster. Think Father Jack or Ubu Roi.
But John Crace is just a painfully unfunny individual trying to write a light-hearted & witty column. Think appendicitis.
Of course, for anyone who succumbs or loses a loved one this will be a terrible episode but for most I think the impact is going to be economic and social (i.e. their lives being constrained).
(PS Tbf Trump may well prove to be right about the fatality rate but for now the best figures we have are the WHO's.)
https://www.technologyreview.com/s/615290/how-to-prepare-for-the-coronavirus-covid19/?utm_medium=tr_social&utm_campaign=site_visitor.unpaid.engagement&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1583422021
As I said down thread, I have kinda of gone and locked them away, and they have emergency supply of provisions. However, I am also going to order home delivery from supermarkets.
What precautions should they be taking with the food that arrives? Should they avoid fresh foods?
Any suggestions much appreciated.