SirNorfolkPassmore said:

MarqueeMark said:

LostPassword said:

CarlottaVance said:

Benpointer said:

CarlottaVance said:

FeersumEnjineeya said:

eristdoof said:

Pulpstar said:

I heard COVID19 was an RNA virus and liable to mutate quickly. Given viruses have a proclivity to mutate towards less harmful forms could this not just peter out by itself ?

This is called regression to the mean.

If you see someone who is 6 ft 2 inches it is very likely that the next person you see is shorter. That is just because you have seen a tall person, and by definition most people are not tall. It is however possible that the next person is 6ft4in. If you travel on a train today, you are almost certainly going to see someone who is 6ft4 or taller.

All organisms mutate. As a virus reproduces quickly, new mutations are arriving and surviving all the time. At least one of the current strains of the new corona virus is bad, lets say equivalent to a 6'4" person. The next mutation is likely to only be a 5'9" on the virus-badness scale. But it could be a 6'5" virus. In the next few months it is likely that one of the mutations is both 6'5" and survives to cause an outbreak.

Perhaps natural selection also plays a part? Viruses that kill their hosts won't survive so well, and so will tend to be replaced by those that don't. So there will be a natural tendency for viruses to become less lethal over time as the less lethal variants displace the more deadly ones. No idea if this is a significant influence though. Presumably variants that make people cough and sneeze more are also at an advantage when it comes to spreading themselves!

Less immediately lethal. The “ideal” (from a virus POV) virus is one that is asymptomatic for a long time while still being infectious - like HIV.

Albeit if the virus had an eventual 100% CFR there would soon be no hosts to infect.

Quite true - viruses don’t “want” to kill hosts - it’s often the hosts immune system which does for the host - one of the theories behind why the “Spanish (sic - it almost certainly originated in the US) flu” killed so many young people with robust immune systems.

A really interesting feature of Covid-19 is the relative lack of deaths in the young. The most recent breakdown I saw (a few days old now) had zero deaths in those under 10 years old, out of ~3,000 total deaths.

I can't think of anything else that has such an age profile.

The only explanation I can think of is that pollution damage to the lungs - from coal-burning or tobacco smoking for example - is a key risk factor.

That was my initial thought - and remains as such.

Would love to see some stats on how many of those who are hospitalized/died are urban dwellers and/or smokers.

I read that the death rate in China is 50% higher among men than women, with similar rates of infection, and that two-thirds of Chinese men smoke compared with less than 5% of women.

That may give a clue, although there could of course be all sorts of other reasons for male/female difference.

TheScreamingEagles said:

I feel sorry for all those names at Lloyd’s of London.

They are going to have a really shit year paying out for cancellation insurance.

IanB2 said:

The Isle of Wight still has a local beer called Duck's Folly, created by a Lloyd's name who was unhappy the last time they were called upon to bail out a year of bad losses. Clue, the name of the beer is an anagram.

DavidL said:

Slackbladder said:

rottenborough said:

Telegraph: ITV has forecast a slump in advertising of at least 10pc due to coronavirus, as travel companies slash spending to reflect cancelled holiday plans.

Jan and Feb would be big 'summer holiday' booking months. This could be very serious for many parts of the economy both UK and abroad.

Sadly my personal circumstances (getting divorced) mean that for me, a summer holiday aboard isn't high on my list of priorities this year.

I was reading this morning that tourism is 13% of Italy's GDP. It's hard to imagine the fall in that being less than 50% which would reduce GDP by 6.5% on its own. Italy is heading for a really serious and deep depression, not a recession. With no currency to devalue, no interest rate to cut (and the ECB already sitting at a negative rate anyway) and no fiscal latitude allowed by EZ rules I am at a loss as to how they get out of it. There must be a serious risk that the virus is the straw that breaks the camel's back so far as their Euro membership is concerned.

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Gardenwalker said:

DavidL said:

Slackbladder said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Japan to Quarantine Visitors From China, South Korea

Will also stop issuing visas at its embassies in China and South Korea in attempt to stop spread of coronavirus

https://www.wsj.com/articles/japan-to-quarantine-visitors-from-china-south-korea-11583409804

Doesnt bode well for the Olympics

According to the IOC they didn't even discuss a delay. Which just seemed incredibly stupid to me.

Why not just push it to 2021?

The contract is for a 2020 Olympics. There’s no scope for moving it to another year.

Presumably, this is one of those unamendable contracts about which one hears so much.

kinabalu said:

IanB2 said:

The Isle of Wight still has a local beer called Duck's Folly, created by a Lloyd's name who was unhappy the last time they were called upon to bail out a year of bad losses. Clue, the name of the beer is an anagram.

Fucks Dolly?

IanB2 said:

MarqueeMark said:

IanB2 said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

AlastairMeeks said:

It's typical that the one year that my other half and I have been super-organised about booking all our travel up ahead is the one year when that hasn't worked to our advantage.

That tour of Lombardy not looking so attractive now?

The first stop of my planned May Alpine tour is was Bergamo...

Fixed.

Aww. I'll be driving there in my car, spending my days mostly walking the mountains with my dog, and eating outdoors. What could go wrong?

TheScreamingEagles said:

DavidL said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I feel sorry for all those names at Lloyd’s of London.

They are going to have a really shit year paying out for cancellation insurance.

Shrugs.

A few years ago someone tried to get me to join a Lloyd's syndicate but having read about Sir William Jaffray & Ors v. The Society of Lloyd's I wasn't going anywhere near them.

Casino_Royale said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/itvborderrb/status/1235529055253848065?s=21

F**k me, does he have no idea how much a tunnel would cost?

Alanbrooke said:

DavidL said:

Slackbladder said:

rottenborough said:

Telegraph: ITV has forecast a slump in advertising of at least 10pc due to coronavirus, as travel companies slash spending to reflect cancelled holiday plans.

Jan and Feb would be big 'summer holiday' booking months. This could be very serious for many parts of the economy both UK and abroad.

Sadly my personal circumstances (getting divorced) mean that for me, a summer holiday aboard isn't high on my list of priorities this year.

I was reading this morning that tourism is 13% of Italy's GDP. It's hard to imagine the fall in that being less than 50% which would reduce GDP by 6.5% on its own. Italy is heading for a really serious and deep depression, not a recession. With no currency to devalue, no interest rate to cut (and the ECB already sitting at a negative rate anyway) and no fiscal latitude allowed by EZ rules I am at a loss as to how they get out of it. There must be a serious risk that the virus is the straw that breaks the camel's back so far as their Euro membership is concerned.

Not to worry, Mrs Merkel will soon be sending them thousands of extra visitors from the Turkish border and telling them to be communautaire as she doesnt want them

Animal_pb said:

kinabalu said:

IanB2 said:

The Isle of Wight still has a local beer called Duck's Folly, created by a Lloyd's name who was unhappy the last time they were called upon to bail out a year of bad losses. Clue, the name of the beer is an anagram.

Fucks Dolly?

The other clue is, a *Lloyd's* name.

Nigelb said:

Beibheirli_C said:

LostPassword said:

A really interesting feature of Covid-19 is the relative lack of deaths in the young. The most recent breakdown I saw (a few days old now) had zero deaths in those under 10 years old, out of ~3,000 total deaths.

I can't think of anything else that has such an age profile.

The only explanation I can think of is that pollution damage to the lungs - from coal-burning or tobacco smoking for example - is a key risk factor.

Some babies have weak lungs so there should be some fatalities in that group if that was the determining factor. I suspect it is due to the difference in immune systems. As you are growing your immune system is in a "learning mode". Once you are an adult that stops and the immune system reacts differently. Think of Chicken Pox - in kids, a few blisters, in adults incapacitation for a week or two.

There is the possibility of ADE:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antibody-dependent_enhancement

(Though I've not seen any published evidence for this outbreak.)

AlastairMeeks said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I feel sorry for all those names at Lloyd’s of London.

They are going to have a really shit year paying out for cancellation insurance.

This kind of event is precisely what insurers charge their premiums for. If Names don't want to run the risk of paying out in these circumstances, they shouldn't be Names.

MikeL said:

Germany almost doubled today - up 182 to 444.

And South Korea hasn't slowed - up 467 today.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

TheScreamingEagles said:

AlastairMeeks said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I feel sorry for all those names at Lloyd’s of London.

They are going to have a really shit year paying out for cancellation insurance.

This kind of event is precisely what insurers charge their premiums for. If Names don't want to run the risk of paying out in these circumstances, they shouldn't be Names.

I would be the world's worst underwriter.

DavidL said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

DavidL said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I feel sorry for all those names at Lloyd’s of London.

They are going to have a really shit year paying out for cancellation insurance.

Shrugs.

A few years ago someone tried to get me to join a Lloyd's syndicate but having read about Sir William Jaffray & Ors v. The Society of Lloyd's I wasn't going anywhere near them.

Its the old joke. How do you make a small fortune at Lloyds?