I heard COVID19 was an RNA virus and liable to mutate quickly. Given viruses have a proclivity to mutate towards less harmful forms could this not just peter out by itself ?
This is called regression to the mean.
If you see someone who is 6 ft 2 inches it is very likely that the next person you see is shorter. That is just because you have seen a tall person, and by definition most people are not tall. It is however possible that the next person is 6ft4in. If you travel on a train today, you are almost certainly going to see someone who is 6ft4 or taller.
All organisms mutate. As a virus reproduces quickly, new mutations are arriving and surviving all the time. At least one of the current strains of the new corona virus is bad, lets say equivalent to a 6'4" person. The next mutation is likely to only be a 5'9" on the virus-badness scale. But it could be a 6'5" virus. In the next few months it is likely that one of the mutations is both 6'5" and survives to cause an outbreak.
Perhaps natural selection also plays a part? Viruses that kill their hosts won't survive so well, and so will tend to be replaced by those that don't. So there will be a natural tendency for viruses to become less lethal over time as the less lethal variants displace the more deadly ones. No idea if this is a significant influence though. Presumably variants that make people cough and sneeze more are also at an advantage when it comes to spreading themselves!
Less immediately lethal. The “ideal” (from a virus POV) virus is one that is asymptomatic for a long time while still being infectious - like HIV.
Albeit if the virus had an eventual 100% CFR there would soon be no hosts to infect.
Quite true - viruses don’t “want” to kill hosts - it’s often the hosts immune system which does for the host - one of the theories behind why the “Spanish (sic - it almost certainly originated in the US) flu” killed so many young people with robust immune systems.
A really interesting feature of Covid-19 is the relative lack of deaths in the young. The most recent breakdown I saw (a few days old now) had zero deaths in those under 10 years old, out of ~3,000 total deaths.
I can't think of anything else that has such an age profile.
The only explanation I can think of is that pollution damage to the lungs - from coal-burning or tobacco smoking for example - is a key risk factor.
That was my initial thought - and remains as such.
Would love to see some stats on how many of those who are hospitalized/died are urban dwellers and/or smokers.
I read that the death rate in China is 50% higher among men than women, with similar rates of infection, and that two-thirds of Chinese men smoke compared with less than 5% of women.
That may give a clue, although there could of course be all sorts of other reasons for male/female difference.
Without any relevant expertise, it seems to me that there is something decidedly unusual about the pattern of incidence of this virus, its apparently rapid spread in some circumstances but not in others. I wonder whether we will ever get the full story.
I feel sorry for all those names at Lloyd’s of London.
They are going to have a really shit year paying out for cancellation insurance.
The Isle of Wight still has a local beer called Duck's Folly, created by a Lloyd's name who was unhappy the last time they were called upon to bail out a year of bad losses. Clue, the name of the beer is an anagram.
The Isle of Wight still has a local beer called Duck's Folly, created by a Lloyd's name who was unhappy the last time they were called upon to bail out a year of bad losses. Clue, the name of the beer is an anagram.
It's typical that the one year that my other half and I have been super-organised about booking all our travel up ahead is the one year when that hasn't worked to our advantage.
That tour of Lombardy not looking so attractive now?
The first stop of my planned May Alpine tour is Bergamo...
Telegraph: ITV has forecast a slump in advertising of at least 10pc due to coronavirus, as travel companies slash spending to reflect cancelled holiday plans.
Jan and Feb would be big 'summer holiday' booking months. This could be very serious for many parts of the economy both UK and abroad.
Sadly my personal circumstances (getting divorced) mean that for me, a summer holiday aboard isn't high on my list of priorities this year.
I was reading this morning that tourism is 13% of Italy's GDP. It's hard to imagine the fall in that being less than 50% which would reduce GDP by 6.5% on its own. Italy is heading for a really serious and deep depression, not a recession. With no currency to devalue, no interest rate to cut (and the ECB already sitting at a negative rate anyway) and no fiscal latitude allowed by EZ rules I am at a loss as to how they get out of it. There must be a serious risk that the virus is the straw that breaks the camel's back so far as their Euro membership is concerned.
Not to worry, Mrs Merkel will soon be sending them thousands of extra visitors from the Turkish border and telling them to be communautaire as she doesnt want them
It's typical that the one year that my other half and I have been super-organised about booking all our travel up ahead is the one year when that hasn't worked to our advantage.
That tour of Lombardy not looking so attractive now?
The first stop of my planned May Alpine tour is was Bergamo...
According to the IOC they didn't even discuss a delay. Which just seemed incredibly stupid to me.
Why not just push it to 2021?
The contract is for a 2020 Olympics. There’s no scope for moving it to another year.
Presumably, this is one of those unamendable contracts about which one hears so much.
Is more logistics than anything else, you need to have x thousand rooms available for a three week period, that sort of thing.
If you move it then you're not guaranteed to have all those rooms then sponsors get upset which reduces the value of their sponsorship, so if the IOC cancel the Olympics due to earthquakes, typhoons, or plague they can claim on their insurance.
It's typical that the one year that my other half and I have been super-organised about booking all our travel up ahead is the one year when that hasn't worked to our advantage.
That tour of Lombardy not looking so attractive now?
The first stop of my planned May Alpine tour is was Bergamo...
Fixed.
Aww. I'll be driving there in my car, spending my days mostly walking the mountains with my dog, and eating outdoors. What could go wrong?
The Isle of Wight still has a local beer called Duck's Folly, created by a Lloyd's name who was unhappy the last time they were called upon to bail out a year of bad losses. Clue, the name of the beer is an anagram.
It's typical that the one year that my other half and I have been super-organised about booking all our travel up ahead is the one year when that hasn't worked to our advantage.
That tour of Lombardy not looking so attractive now?
The first stop of my planned May Alpine tour is was Bergamo...
Fixed.
Aww. I'll be driving there in my car, spending my days mostly walking the mountains with my dog, and eating outdoors. What could go wrong?
I feel sorry for all those names at Lloyd’s of London.
They are going to have a really shit year paying out for cancellation insurance.
Shrugs.
A few years ago someone tried to get me to join a Lloyd's syndicate but having read about Sir William Jaffray & Ors v. The Society of Lloyd's I wasn't going anywhere near them.
The Isle of Wight still has a local beer called Duck's Folly, created by a Lloyd's name who was unhappy the last time they were called upon to bail out a year of bad losses. Clue, the name of the beer is an anagram.
I feel sorry for all those names at Lloyd’s of London.
They are going to have a really shit year paying out for cancellation insurance.
Shrugs.
A few years ago someone tried to get me to join a Lloyd's syndicate but having read about Sir William Jaffray & Ors v. The Society of Lloyd's I wasn't going anywhere near them.
Its the old joke. How do you make a small fortune at Lloyds?
It's typical that the one year that my other half and I have been super-organised about booking all our travel up ahead is the one year when that hasn't worked to our advantage.
That tour of Lombardy not looking so attractive now?
The first stop of my planned May Alpine tour is was Bergamo...
Fixed.
Aww. I'll be driving there in my car, spending my days mostly walking the mountains with my dog, and eating outdoors. What could go wrong?
Telegraph: ITV has forecast a slump in advertising of at least 10pc due to coronavirus, as travel companies slash spending to reflect cancelled holiday plans.
Jan and Feb would be big 'summer holiday' booking months. This could be very serious for many parts of the economy both UK and abroad.
Sadly my personal circumstances (getting divorced) mean that for me, a summer holiday aboard isn't high on my list of priorities this year.
I was reading this morning that tourism is 13% of Italy's GDP. It's hard to imagine the fall in that being less than 50% which would reduce GDP by 6.5% on its own. Italy is heading for a really serious and deep depression, not a recession. With no currency to devalue, no interest rate to cut (and the ECB already sitting at a negative rate anyway) and no fiscal latitude allowed by EZ rules I am at a loss as to how they get out of it. There must be a serious risk that the virus is the straw that breaks the camel's back so far as their Euro membership is concerned.
Not to worry, Mrs Merkel will soon be sending them thousands of extra visitors from the Turkish border and telling them to be communautaire as she doesnt want them
Well, I admire your optimism that that is going to help.
I feel sorry for all those names at Lloyd’s of London.
They are going to have a really shit year paying out for cancellation insurance.
This kind of event is precisely what insurers charge their premiums for. If Names don't want to run the risk of paying out in these circumstances, they shouldn't be Names.
The Isle of Wight still has a local beer called Duck's Folly, created by a Lloyd's name who was unhappy the last time they were called upon to bail out a year of bad losses. Clue, the name of the beer is an anagram.
Fucks Dolly?
The other clue is, a *Lloyd's* name.
He got one of the words almost right, credit where it's due.
Anyhow it's another day of shit weather outside, the dog is frustrated that I'd rather trade the markets indoors than get wet with him outside, and if there was ever a more underappreciated piece of classic music than Sibelius's Third Symphony, I would be surprised to hear about it.
A really interesting feature of Covid-19 is the relative lack of deaths in the young. The most recent breakdown I saw (a few days old now) had zero deaths in those under 10 years old, out of ~3,000 total deaths.
I can't think of anything else that has such an age profile.
The only explanation I can think of is that pollution damage to the lungs - from coal-burning or tobacco smoking for example - is a key risk factor.
Some babies have weak lungs so there should be some fatalities in that group if that was the determining factor. I suspect it is due to the difference in immune systems. As you are growing your immune system is in a "learning mode". Once you are an adult that stops and the immune system reacts differently. Think of Chicken Pox - in kids, a few blisters, in adults incapacitation for a week or two.
It's typical that the one year that my other half and I have been super-organised about booking all our travel up ahead is the one year when that hasn't worked to our advantage.
That tour of Lombardy not looking so attractive now?
The first stop of my planned May Alpine tour is was Bergamo...
Fixed.
Aww. I'll be driving there in my car, spending my days mostly walking the mountains with my dog, and eating outdoors. What could go wrong?
I feel sorry for all those names at Lloyd’s of London.
They are going to have a really shit year paying out for cancellation insurance.
This kind of event is precisely what insurers charge their premiums for. If Names don't want to run the risk of paying out in these circumstances, they shouldn't be Names.
It's typical that the one year that my other half and I have been super-organised about booking all our travel up ahead is the one year when that hasn't worked to our advantage.
That tour of Lombardy not looking so attractive now?
The first stop of my planned May Alpine tour is was Bergamo...
Fixed.
Aww. I'll be driving there in my car, spending my days mostly walking the mountains with my dog, and eating outdoors. What could go wrong?
Did you watch any of The Walking Dead?
Is the House of Lords on the Parliament channel again?
I feel sorry for all those names at Lloyd’s of London.
They are going to have a really shit year paying out for cancellation insurance.
This kind of event is precisely what insurers charge their premiums for. If Names don't want to run the risk of paying out in these circumstances, they shouldn't be Names.
I would be the world's worst underwriter.
The bar's set pretty high. I used to work with a guy who seemed almost magnetically attracted towards ships that were about to sink.
I feel sorry for all those names at Lloyd’s of London.
They are going to have a really shit year paying out for cancellation insurance.
Shrugs.
A few years ago someone tried to get me to join a Lloyd's syndicate but having read about Sir William Jaffray & Ors v. The Society of Lloyd's I wasn't going anywhere near them.
Its the old joke. How do you make a small fortune at Lloyds?
Same way one makes a small fortune motor racing, or owning a football club?
I feel sorry for all those names at Lloyd’s of London.
They are going to have a really shit year paying out for cancellation insurance.
Shrugs.
A few years ago someone tried to get me to join a Lloyd's syndicate but having read about Sir William Jaffray & Ors v. The Society of Lloyd's I wasn't going anywhere near them.
Its the old joke. How do you make a small fortune at Lloyds?
Same way one makes a small fortune motor racing, or owning a football club?
Comments
And South Korea hasn't slowed - up 467 today.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
We’re only in March so there’s no need to panic and I expect the games will go ahead.
If you move it then you're not guaranteed to have all those rooms then sponsors get upset which reduces the value of their sponsorship, so if the IOC cancel the Olympics due to earthquakes, typhoons, or plague they can claim on their insurance.
Fiscal conservatism is out, business is officially f**ked and the money tree is being shaken harder than ever.
Boris Johnson is John McDonnell and I claim my €5.78
Anyhow it's another day of shit weather outside, the dog is frustrated that I'd rather trade the markets indoors than get wet with him outside, and if there was ever a more underappreciated piece of classic music than Sibelius's Third Symphony, I would be surprised to hear about it.
Or did I really try to access my account unsuccessfully...
died with the flu, not because of it