From Beeb: 'A unique virus' - WHO chief The head of the World Health Organization (WHO), Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, says the new coronavirus "is a unique virus with unique features".
"This virus is not influenza. We have never before seen a pathogen that can transfer between individuals [so easily]."
"Containment of Covid-19 must remain the top priority for all countries," he says, adding that governments have "no choice but to act now".
"We have never before seen a pathogen that can transfer between individuals [so easily]"
Christ. Big trouble.
Yet more than half of that ski chalet came back from a whole holiday in close confinement with a carrier (indeed a bunch of them by the end) uninfected. Similarly on the cruise ship there were a lot of unaffected people.
Unfortunately so are the comments. The people there are properly, howling at the moon, insane. A typical (yes, typical) response to trying to coordinate a response to a serious health threat:
They just don´t get it, do they? - the British psyche is based on being an island race - not part of some ersatz pan-European continent pretence of being all one big happy family.
We don't need to subscribe to a million little Lilliputian threads that tie us back to Brussels like apron strings.
"Medical staff suffers extreme fatigue as outbreak continues" https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/nation/2020/03/119_285427.html Doctors, nurses and other medical professionals here are complaining about fatigue and exhaustion as the number of coronavirus patients continues to increase in Daegu and other parts of the country, according to officials from local governments and hospitals Monday.
Acute fatigue has led some nurses to quit en masse, causing shortages in Daegu and neighboring North Gyeongsang Province, which the new coronavirus has hit hardest.
Korea has reported thousands of infected patients, of whom more than 80 percent have come from Daegu and North Gyeongsang Province.
Pohang Medical Center in North Gyeongsang Province ― which the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention designated as a hospital to handle exclusively coronavirus patients ― is grappling with a shortage of medical personnel after 16 of about 100 nurses quit last week.
The 16 nurses cited overwork, in addition to personal reasons such as the need to take care of their children, as their reasons for quitting. Medical staff at hospitals designated to care for coronavirus patients must stay within the hospital and are not allowed to return to their homes until the outbreak ends...
From Beeb: 'A unique virus' - WHO chief The head of the World Health Organization (WHO), Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, says the new coronavirus "is a unique virus with unique features".
"This virus is not influenza. We have never before seen a pathogen that can transfer between individuals [so easily]."
"Containment of Covid-19 must remain the top priority for all countries," he says, adding that governments have "no choice but to act now".
"We have never before seen a pathogen that can transfer between individuals [so easily]"
From Beeb: 'A unique virus' - WHO chief The head of the World Health Organization (WHO), Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, says the new coronavirus "is a unique virus with unique features".
"This virus is not influenza. We have never before seen a pathogen that can transfer between individuals [so easily]."
"Containment of Covid-19 must remain the top priority for all countries," he says, adding that governments have "no choice but to act now".
"We have never before seen a pathogen that can transfer between individuals [so easily]"
Christ. Big trouble.
Yet more than half of that ski chalet came back from a whole holiday in close confinement with a carrier (indeed a bunch of them by the end) uninfected. Similarly on the cruise ship there were a lot of unaffected people.
In the Mail it is reported scientists dont even know exactly how the disease spreads.
So it was all fake news by the Guardian, making a big play of it to do with Boris losing an argument against her in a debate.
To be fair, the original Guardian article linked to said it was not Boris' decision, though the headline made it seem as if the current occupant of No10 was responsible (which is probably why it was linked to!)
I might be misremembering but didn't the original article say something more vague like "the decision was taken last year", and then there was a whole big bit about Boris being bested in a debate...nudge nudge wink wink.
I don’t think the article has been edited. It doesn’t blame Boris and quotes Mary Beard as not wanting to as well as far as I can tell.
So it was all fake news by the Guardian, making a big play of it to do with Boris losing an argument against her in a debate.
To be fair, the original Guardian article linked to said it was not Boris' decision, though the headline made it seem as if the current occupant of No10 was responsible (which is probably why it was linked to!)
I might be misremembering but didn't the original article say something more vague like "the decision was taken last year", and then there was a whole big bit about Boris being bested in a debate...nudge nudge wink wink.
I don’t think the article has been edited. It doesn’t blame Boris and quotes Mary Beard as not wanting to as well as far as I can tell.
Fair enough. This was the bit I saw quoted on a tweet...
The 65-year-old scholar has been rejected by Downing Street as a trustee of the British Museum, the Observer understands. Whitehall sources said the decision last year to turn her down had been made because of her pro-European views, which she has frequently expressed via social media.
But I see later in the article they do mention May.
So it was all fake news by the Guardian, making a big play of it to do with Boris losing an argument against her in a debate.
To be fair, the original Guardian article linked to said it was not Boris' decision, though the headline made it seem as if the current occupant of No10 was responsible (which is probably why it was linked to!)
I might be misremembering but didn't the original article say something more vague like "the decision was taken last year", and then there was a whole big bit about Boris being bested in a debate...nudge nudge wink wink.
I don’t think the article has been edited. It doesn’t blame Boris and quotes Mary Beard as not wanting to as well as far as I can tell.
No, it hasn't. I read the original article when it appeared, and remember thinking, 'typical May'.
With the pres candidates being all older than Methusaleh, staying long the dropped out and potential VP candidates might not be a bad idea for Betfair with the price at 1000 or so
These are :
Nina Turner (Sanders VP ?) Kamal Harris (Biden VP ?) Stacey Abrams - Other potential VP Mike Pence (Trump VP) Buttigieg Klobuchar
Warren (Neutral or not too red at current prices; reback for Pres when she is "defeated")
So it was all fake news by the Guardian, making a big play of it to do with Boris losing an argument against her in a debate.
To be fair, the original Guardian article linked to said it was not Boris' decision, though the headline made it seem as if the current occupant of No10 was responsible (which is probably why it was linked to!)
I might be misremembering but didn't the original article say something more vague like "the decision was taken last year", and then there was a whole big bit about Boris being bested in a debate...nudge nudge wink wink.
I don’t think the article has been edited. It doesn’t blame Boris and quotes Mary Beard as not wanting to as well as far as I can tell.
Fair enough. This was the bit I saw quoted on a tweet...
The 65-year-old scholar has been rejected by Downing Street as a trustee of the British Museum, the Observer understands. Whitehall sources said the decision last year to turn her down had been made because of her pro-European views, which she has frequently expressed via social media.
But I see later in the article they do mention May.
From Beeb: 'A unique virus' - WHO chief The head of the World Health Organization (WHO), Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, says the new coronavirus "is a unique virus with unique features".
"This virus is not influenza. We have never before seen a pathogen that can transfer between individuals [so easily]."
"Containment of Covid-19 must remain the top priority for all countries," he says, adding that governments have "no choice but to act now".
"We have never before seen a pathogen that can transfer between individuals [so easily]"
Christ. Big trouble.
In Greater China?
Last I heard, the R0 for COVID was 2.28. It might be higher. But until this, I've seen nothing to suggest that it is anything like the up to 18 for measles or up to 17 for whooping cough. I feel it will turn out that the head of the WHO misspoke.
So it was all fake news by the Guardian, making a big play of it to do with Boris losing an argument against her in a debate.
To be fair, the original Guardian article linked to said it was not Boris' decision, though the headline made it seem as if the current occupant of No10 was responsible (which is probably why it was linked to!)
I might be misremembering but didn't the original article say something more vague like "the decision was taken last year", and then there was a whole big bit about Boris being bested in a debate...nudge nudge wink wink.
I don’t think the article has been edited. It doesn’t blame Boris and quotes Mary Beard as not wanting to as well as far as I can tell.
Fair enough.
It is an entertaining debate between Boris and Beard even if, like me, you know nothing of the ancient world. https://youtu.be/2k448JqQyj8
The problem with this is that the Labour leadership election is just boring. We already know who won, it just doesn't get announced for several more weeks.
A bit like last year's Tory leadership election really.
Yes - but it took a lot less time to get there. It took less time for the Tories to elect and install a new leader than for Labour to even get to the start of the members' vote (taking the same starting point of the opening of nominations from MPs).
It took them a couple of months. The last Tory leadership election in opposition actually took longer - Howard announced he was stepping down early in May 2005 with Cameron not being elected until December.
It depends on what you take as the starting point. Although Howard pre-announced his resignation, he didn't actually resign until October.
On that basis, the Labour election when Brown won began before the 2005GE, when Blair said he wouldn't serve a full third term.
Did it not start at the Granita restaurant in May 94? So about 15 years?
What was illiberal about any of what I wrote? One could argue that tracking and tracing isn't very libertarian - but I'm a libertarian not an anarchist. I don't believe in no state whatsoever.
Or are you denying that this countries hygiene, handwashing etc that I listed are not better than average across the world? Do we in your eyes have the same nourishment as sub-Saharan Africans? We're a very well off country and should appreciate what we have - billions across the world would love what we can afford to take for granted.
Don't take what we have for granted.
You seemed to be succumbing to that sense of British exceptionalism - "We are not like other peoples and nations" - which underpins so much of where we go wrong when we do.
But, OK, if all you mean is we should count our material blessings compared to, say, Iran, then that is perfectly fine and not at all a problem. Indeed I wholeheartedly agree.
Indeed. We are exceptional, we're not average and we should be thankful for that, we are lucky to live in one of the best off nations in the world. Almost every nation is to their own extent exceptional whether for good or ill, it is our exceptions that make us unique. Some of those exceptions are good and some will not be.
One other area where we are fortunate is being an island nation without a land border. That means we are more capable than most other nations of tracking people who have recently entered the country, which nations with an unmanned land border aren't able to do.
How quickly Northern Ireland has been excluded from the country.
The problem with this is that the Labour leadership election is just boring. We already know who won, it just doesn't get announced for several more weeks.
A bit like last year's Tory leadership election really.
Yes - but it took a lot less time to get there. It took less time for the Tories to elect and install a new leader than for Labour to even get to the start of the members' vote (taking the same starting point of the opening of nominations from MPs).
It took them a couple of months. The last Tory leadership election in opposition actually took longer - Howard announced he was stepping down early in May 2005 with Cameron not being elected until December.
It depends on what you take as the starting point. Although Howard pre-announced his resignation, he didn't actually resign until October.
On that basis, the Labour election when Brown won began before the 2005GE, when Blair said he wouldn't serve a full third term.
I don't think Corbyn created a vacancy until the NEC meeting in the first week of January. That means the election process will have taken 3 months - a month less than when Milliband stood down in May 2015.
From Beeb: 'A unique virus' - WHO chief The head of the World Health Organization (WHO), Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, says the new coronavirus "is a unique virus with unique features".
"This virus is not influenza. We have never before seen a pathogen that can transfer between individuals [so easily]."
"Containment of Covid-19 must remain the top priority for all countries," he says, adding that governments have "no choice but to act now".
"We have never before seen a pathogen that can transfer between individuals [so easily]"
Christ. Big trouble.
Yet more than half of that ski chalet came back from a whole holiday in close confinement with a carrier (indeed a bunch of them by the end) uninfected. Similarly on the cruise ship there were a lot of unaffected people.
In the Mail it is reported scientists dont even know exactly how the disease spreads.
The WHO guy on R4 just said that the emerging surprise is the low rate of transmission, as compared to normal flu.
From Beeb: 'A unique virus' - WHO chief The head of the World Health Organization (WHO), Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, says the new coronavirus "is a unique virus with unique features".
"This virus is not influenza. We have never before seen a pathogen that can transfer between individuals [so easily]."
"Containment of Covid-19 must remain the top priority for all countries," he says, adding that governments have "no choice but to act now".
"We have never before seen a pathogen that can transfer between individuals [so easily]"
Christ. Big trouble.
Yet more than half of that ski chalet came back from a whole holiday in close confinement with a carrier (indeed a bunch of them by the end) uninfected. Similarly on the cruise ship there were a lot of unaffected people.
Ah yes. That old favourite. THE CHALET
I'm not a skier but doesn't everyone in these chalets not have sex with everyone else on an almost daily basis? Really should be ideal conditions for transmission.
The A&E doctor that was on R5 earlier today made a bit of a prat of themselves. Launched into a big anti-Boris bit about how dare the government not have COBRA meetings until today, why no planning etc etc etc, until they had to be corrected that in fact all of this had been going on since January. Today's meeting was about signing off all the plans that been made.
From Beeb: 'A unique virus' - WHO chief The head of the World Health Organization (WHO), Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, says the new coronavirus "is a unique virus with unique features".
"This virus is not influenza. We have never before seen a pathogen that can transfer between individuals [so easily]."
"Containment of Covid-19 must remain the top priority for all countries," he says, adding that governments have "no choice but to act now".
"We have never before seen a pathogen that can transfer between individuals [so easily]"
Christ. Big trouble.
Yet more than half of that ski chalet came back from a whole holiday in close confinement with a carrier (indeed a bunch of them by the end) uninfected. Similarly on the cruise ship there were a lot of unaffected people.
In the Mail it is reported scientists dont even know exactly how the disease spreads.
The WHO guy on R4 just said that the emerging surprise is the low rate of transmission, as compared to normal flu.
From Beeb: 'A unique virus' - WHO chief The head of the World Health Organization (WHO), Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, says the new coronavirus "is a unique virus with unique features".
"This virus is not influenza. We have never before seen a pathogen that can transfer between individuals [so easily]."
"Containment of Covid-19 must remain the top priority for all countries," he says, adding that governments have "no choice but to act now".
"We have never before seen a pathogen that can transfer between individuals [so easily]"
Christ. Big trouble.
Yet more than half of that ski chalet came back from a whole holiday in close confinement with a carrier (indeed a bunch of them by the end) uninfected. Similarly on the cruise ship there were a lot of unaffected people.
Ah yes. That old favourite. THE CHALET
I'm not a skier but doesn't everyone in these chalets not have sex with everyone else on an almost daily basis? Really should be ideal conditions for transmission.
Remind me to not go on a family & friends holiday with you.
From Beeb: 'A unique virus' - WHO chief The head of the World Health Organization (WHO), Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, says the new coronavirus "is a unique virus with unique features".
"This virus is not influenza. We have never before seen a pathogen that can transfer between individuals [so easily]."
"Containment of Covid-19 must remain the top priority for all countries," he says, adding that governments have "no choice but to act now".
"We have never before seen a pathogen that can transfer between individuals [so easily]"
Christ. Big trouble.
Also bollocks.
It is very probably more infectious than seasonal influenza, but nowhere near (say) measles (though of course more serious). What makes it more difficult to prevent the spread is the asymptomatic spreaders.
From Beeb: 'A unique virus' - WHO chief The head of the World Health Organization (WHO), Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, says the new coronavirus "is a unique virus with unique features".
"This virus is not influenza. We have never before seen a pathogen that can transfer between individuals [so easily]."
"Containment of Covid-19 must remain the top priority for all countries," he says, adding that governments have "no choice but to act now".
"We have never before seen a pathogen that can transfer between individuals [so easily]"
Christ. Big trouble.
Yet more than half of that ski chalet came back from a whole holiday in close confinement with a carrier (indeed a bunch of them by the end) uninfected. Similarly on the cruise ship there were a lot of unaffected people.
Ah yes. That old favourite. THE CHALET
WHO also said: "Containment of Covid-19 is feasible."
From Beeb: 'A unique virus' - WHO chief The head of the World Health Organization (WHO), Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, says the new coronavirus "is a unique virus with unique features".
"This virus is not influenza. We have never before seen a pathogen that can transfer between individuals [so easily]."
"Containment of Covid-19 must remain the top priority for all countries," he says, adding that governments have "no choice but to act now".
"We have never before seen a pathogen that can transfer between individuals [so easily]"
Christ. Big trouble.
Yet more than half of that ski chalet came back from a whole holiday in close confinement with a carrier (indeed a bunch of them by the end) uninfected. Similarly on the cruise ship there were a lot of unaffected people.
In the Mail it is reported scientists dont even know exactly how the disease spreads.
The WHO guy on R4 just said that the emerging surprise is the low rate of transmission, as compared to normal flu.
Who to believe? The Mail or the WTO guy?
Well the number of new cases transmitted within the Uk identified this week so far is...none.
From Beeb: 'A unique virus' - WHO chief The head of the World Health Organization (WHO), Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, says the new coronavirus "is a unique virus with unique features".
"This virus is not influenza. We have never before seen a pathogen that can transfer between individuals [so easily]."
"Containment of Covid-19 must remain the top priority for all countries," he says, adding that governments have "no choice but to act now".
"We have never before seen a pathogen that can transfer between individuals [so easily]"
Christ. Big trouble.
In Greater China?
Last I heard, the R0 for COVID was 2.28. It might be higher. But until this, I've seen nothing to suggest that it is anything like the up to 18 for measles or up to 17 for whooping cough. I feel it will turn out that the head of the WHO misspoke.
I posted it because I was a bit suspicious, it's seems to be a 4-7 day to double from some other scientists, so that seems to be quite a change in note.
From Beeb: 'A unique virus' - WHO chief The head of the World Health Organization (WHO), Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, says the new coronavirus "is a unique virus with unique features".
"This virus is not influenza. We have never before seen a pathogen that can transfer between individuals [so easily]."
"Containment of Covid-19 must remain the top priority for all countries," he says, adding that governments have "no choice but to act now".
"We have never before seen a pathogen that can transfer between individuals [so easily]"
Christ. Big trouble.
In Greater China?
"Okay. You people sit tight, hold the fort and keep the home fires burning. And if we’re not back by dawn… call the president."
Credit to Nicola Sturgeon. The first politician to be *almost* completely straight with her voters.
"We are preparing for a reasonable worst case scenario, where 50-80% of Scots will get coronavirus"
What she doesn't quite spell out is that this means she is preparing for 4.3 million Scots to get the viruscots to become critically ill and require hospital treatment.
Maybe she thinks Scots can't do maths and don't have calculators on their phones.
Better start setting up the portacabins then hadn't we.
Yes, or converting schools and gym halls or something. Whilst I remain of the view that these figures are massively pessimistic going on China's experience there is no doubt that we are going to need far more isolation ward capacity. It's not like these 16k beds are in the main suitable for someone with an infectious disease or for that matter currently empty.
Do we believe Chinese data? It's difficult, given that their first reaction was arrest the doctors sounding the alarm, but let's say you are right.
China only managed its heroic achievement by putting an entire province (55m people) in quarantine, and the inhabitants into a total lockdown, where they welded people into their homes.
Can Scotland do that? It might have to.
There are aspects of the Chinese data that looks extremelyare in Hubei. Really?
Whilst I am willing to believe containment works up to a point the rate at which they are reducing the number of new cases seems, well, remarkable. Today they are claiming that the whole of China has 202 new cases.
I don't have any alternative data and am very reluctant to give much credence to some unvouched hysteria on the internet but the short answer is no, I don't.
The people in our Hong Kong office are reporting cases there are well down. But it’s because just about everyone is staying at home. That seems to be the key. This is not an air-borne virus, it seems. Human contact is essential to its spread. That means it may be possible to contain, or at least slow down significantly. I am a know-nothing, I admit, but what continues to surprise me is not how many reported cases outside China there are, but how few. When it hit Singapore, Japan and Korea, I was expecting rapid spread. But I am entirely clueless as to how these things work.
From Beeb: 'A unique virus' - WHO chief The head of the World Health Organization (WHO), Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, says the new coronavirus "is a unique virus with unique features".
"This virus is not influenza. We have never before seen a pathogen that can transfer between individuals [so easily]."
"Containment of Covid-19 must remain the top priority for all countries," he says, adding that governments have "no choice but to act now".
"We have never before seen a pathogen that can transfer between individuals [so easily]"
Christ. Big trouble.
Yet more than half of that ski chalet came back from a whole holiday in close confinement with a carrier (indeed a bunch of them by the end) uninfected. Similarly on the cruise ship there were a lot of unaffected people.
Ah yes. That old favourite. THE CHALET
I'm not a skier but doesn't everyone in these chalets not have sex with everyone else on an almost daily basis? Really should be ideal conditions for transmission.
I doubt many staying in cabins with 12 people in have the endurance to ski all day then have sex with 11 others. Even if they all happen to have the inclination which seems very unlikely. I can see why you dont ski if you think that is expected of you!
From Beeb: 'A unique virus' - WHO chief The head of the World Health Organization (WHO), Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, says the new coronavirus "is a unique virus with unique features".
"This virus is not influenza. We have never before seen a pathogen that can transfer between individuals [so easily]."
"Containment of Covid-19 must remain the top priority for all countries," he says, adding that governments have "no choice but to act now".
"We have never before seen a pathogen that can transfer between individuals [so easily]"
Christ. Big trouble.
Yet more than half of that ski chalet came back from a whole holiday in close confinement with a carrier (indeed a bunch of them by the end) uninfected. Similarly on the cruise ship there were a lot of unaffected people.
Ah yes. That old favourite. THE CHALET
I'm not a skier but doesn't everyone in these chalets not have sex with everyone else on an almost daily basis? Really should be ideal conditions for transmission.
Remind me to not go on a family & friends holiday with you.
It seemed reasonable. Why else would anyone want to go?
I bow to no-one in my scepticism in the current world economic model (America borrows from China to buy goods from China which then lends the money it made by selling the goods to America...), but really, a slowdown of this type is not *that* serious.
When the coronavirus pandemic finishes (and it will finish*), then economic activity will bounce back. I also have little doubt that governments will use the slowdown as an excuse to get the printing presses revved up again, and monetisation of government debt will go full throttle.
* I make no forecast when this will be, and I don't mean to minimise the seriousness of this, but at some point it will be over.
Better start setting up the portacabins then hadn't we.
Yes, or converting schools and gym halls or something. Whilst I remain of the view that these figures are massively pessimistic going on China's experience there is no doubt that we are going to need far more isolation ward capacity. It's not like these 16k beds are in the main suitable for someone with an infectious disease or for that matter currently empty.
Do we believe Chinese data? It's difficult, given that their first reaction was arrest the doctors sounding the alarm, but let's say you are right.
China only managed its heroic achievement by putting an entire province (55m people) in quarantine, and the inhabitants into a total lockdown, where they welded people into their homes.
Can Scotland do that? It might have to.
There are aspects of the Chinese data that looks extremelyare in Hubei. Really?
Whilst I am willing to believe containment works up to a point the rate at which they are reducing the number of new cases seems, well, remarkable. Today they are claiming that the whole of China has 202 new cases.
I don't have any alternative data and am very reluctant to give much credence to some unvouched hysteria on the internet but the short answer is no, I don't.
The people in our Hong Kong office are reporting cases there are well down. But it’s because just about everyone is staying at home. That seems to be the key. This is not an air-borne virus, it seems. Human contact is essential to its spread. That means it may be possible to contain, or at least slow down significantly. I am a know-nothing, I admit, but what continues to surprise me is not how many reported cases outside China there are, but how few. When it hit Singapore, Japan and Korea, I was expecting rapid spread. But I am entirely clueless as to how these things work.
Japan is taking the US approach of no tests = no cases. Got to keep the Olympics on track.
I bow to no-one in my scepticism in the current world economic model (America borrows from China to buy goods from China which then lends the money it made by selling the goods to America...), but really, a slowdown of this type is not *that* serious.
When the coronavirus pandemic finishes (and it will finish*), then economic activity will bounce back. I also have little doubt that governments will use the slowdown as an excuse to get the printing presses revved up again, and monetisation of government debt will go full throttle.
* I make no forecast when this will be, and I don't mean to minimise the seriousness of this, but at some point it will be over.
Warren urged lawmakers to immediately pass a bill to fend off potential job losses, business failures, and consumer financial threats driven by the spreading coronavirus and the efforts to contain it.
“Companies across America are already struggling with supply chain disruptions, and we don’t want these temporary struggles to lead to widespread layoffs or for otherwise solid companies to go under,” Warren wrote in a Monday proposal....
Better start setting up the portacabins then hadn't we.
Yes, or converting schools and gym halls or something. Whilst I remain of the view that these figures are massively pessimistic going on China's experience there is no doubt that we are going to need far more isolation ward capacity. It's not like these 16k beds are in the main suitable for someone with an infectious disease or for that matter currently empty.
Do we believe Chinese data? It's difficult, given that their first reaction was arrest the doctors sounding the alarm, but let's say you are right.
China only managed its heroic achievement by putting an entire province (55m people) in quarantine, and the inhabitants into a total lockdown, where they welded people into their homes.
Can Scotland do that? It might have to.
There are aspects of the Chinese data that looks extremelyare in Hubei. Really?
Whilst I am willing to believe containment works up to a point the rate at which they are reducing the number of new cases seems, well, remarkable. Today they are claiming that the whole of China has 202 new cases.
I don't have any alternative data and am very reluctant to give much credence to some unvouched hysteria on the internet but the short answer is no, I don't.
The people in our Hong Kong office are reporting cases there are well down. But it’s because just about everyone is staying at home. That seems to be the key. This is not an air-borne virus, it seems. Human contact is essential to its spread. That means it may be possible to contain, or at least slow down significantly. I am a know-nothing, I admit, but what continues to surprise me is not how many reported cases outside China there are, but how few. When it hit Singapore, Japan and Korea, I was expecting rapid spread. But I am entirely clueless as to how these things work.
Japan is taking the US approach of no tests = no cases. Got to keep the Olympics on track.
Its very surprising. I know Japanese culture is a lot about saving face, but when they had the tsunami, they mobilised like crazy.
That is a great page! Thing of beauty - like a dashboard on a plane or something. Oh dear. I have been floating aloof from this thing until now but that could easily suck me in if I bookmark it. Big decision for me.
I bow to no-one in my scepticism in the current world economic model (America borrows from China to buy goods from China which then lends the money it made by selling the goods to America...), but really, a slowdown of this type is not *that* serious.
When the coronavirus pandemic finishes (and it will finish*), then economic activity will bounce back. I also have little doubt that governments will use the slowdown as an excuse to get the printing presses revved up again, and monetisation of government debt will go full throttle.
* I make no forecast when this will be, and I don't mean to minimise the seriousness of this, but at some point it will be over.
Yes and no.
If there is a major hit to certain sectors there are a lot of businesses that could go out of business in the meantime even if it is temporary. For example if people stop going out for meals or to events etc then that could put many hospitality firms out of business and their employees losing their jobs whether or not this slowdown is temporary.
Better start setting up the portacabins then hadn't we.
Yes, or converting schools and gym halls or something. Whilst I remain of the view that these figures are massively pessimistic going on China's experience there is no doubt that we are going to need far more isolation ward capacity. It's not like these 16k beds are in the main suitable for someone with an infectious disease or for that matter currently empty.
Do we believe Chinese data? It's difficult, given that their first reaction was arrest the doctors sounding the alarm, but let's say you are right.
China only managed its heroic achievement by putting an entire province (55m people) in quarantine, and the inhabitants into a total lockdown, where they welded people into their homes.
Can Scotland do that? It might have to.
There are aspects of the Chinese data that looks extremelyare in Hubei. Really?
Whilst I am willing to believe containment works up to a point the rate at which they are reducing the number of new cases seems, well, remarkable. Today they are claiming that the whole of China has 202 new cases.
I don't have any alternative data and am very reluctant to give much credence to some unvouched hysteria on the internet but the short answer is no, I don't.
The people in our Hong Kong office are reporting cases there are well down. But it’s because just about everyone is staying at home. That seems to be the key. This is not an air-borne virus, it seems. Human contact is essential to its spread. That means it may be possible to contain, or at least slow down significantly. I am a know-nothing, I admit, but what continues to surprise me is not how many reported cases outside China there are, but how few. When it hit Singapore, Japan and Korea, I was expecting rapid spread. But I am entirely clueless as to how these things work.
Japan is taking the US approach of no tests = no cases. Got to keep the Olympics on track.
Its very surprising. I know Japanese culture is a lot about saving face, but when they had the tsunami, they mobilised like crazy.
Then suppressed the information on contamination from Fukushima.
I think that case has already been reported, although not that it was a school kid. Not sure if it is great that the media are revealing the specifics as will more than likely cause excess panic.
Who knew self-isolation was the cure to all the world's problems? Overcrowding - fixed, pollution - fixed, climate change - fixed, immigration - fixed...
Who knew self-isolation was the cure to all the world's problems? Overcrowding - fixed, pollution - fixed, climate change - fixed, immigration - fixed...
Better start setting up the portacabins then hadn't we.
Yes, or converting schools and gym halls or something. Whilst I remain of the view that these figures are massively pessimistic going on China's experience there is no doubt that we are going to need far more isolation ward capacity. It's not like these 16k beds are in the main suitable for someone with an infectious disease or for that matter currently empty.
Do we believe Chinese data? It's difficult, given that their first reaction was arrest the doctors sounding the alarm, but let's say you are right.
China only managed its heroic achievement by putting an entire province (55m people) in quarantine, and the inhabitants into a total lockdown, where they welded people into their homes.
Can Scotland do that? It might have to.
There are aspects of the Chinese data that looks extremelyare in Hubei. Really?
Whilst I am willing to believe containment works up to a point the rate at which they are reducing the number of new cases seems, well, remarkable. Today they are claiming that the whole of China has 202 new cases.
I don't have any alternative data and am very reluctant to give much credence to some unvouched hysteria on the internet but the short answer is no, I don't.
The people in our Hong Kong office are reporting cases there are well down. But it’s because just about everyone is staying at home. That seems to be the key. This is not an air-borne virus, it seems. Human contact is essential to its spread. That means it may be possible to contain, or at least slow down significantly. I am a know-nothing, I admit, but what continues to surprise me is not how many reported cases outside China there are, but how few. When it hit Singapore, Japan and Korea, I was expecting rapid spread. But I am entirely clueless as to how these things work.
Hong Kong is warm-ish at the moment so the weather might be helping as well.
WHO Director-General, earlier today: If this was an influenza epidemic, we would have expected to see widespread community transmission across the globe by now, and efforts to slow it down or contain it would not be feasible. But containment of COVID-19 is feasible and must remain the top priority for all countries.“
What was illiberal about any of what I wrote? One could argue that tracking and tracing isn't very libertarian - but I'm a libertarian not an anarchist. I don't believe in no state whatsoever.
Or are you denying that this countries hygiene, handwashing etc that I listed are not better than average across the world? Do we in your eyes have the same nourishment as sub-Saharan Africans? We're a very well off country and should appreciate what we have - billions across the world would love what we can afford to take for granted.
Don't take what we have for granted.
You seemed to be succumbing to that sense of British exceptionalism - "We are not like other peoples and nations" - which underpins so much of where we go wrong when we do.
But, OK, if all you mean is we should count our material blessings compared to, say, Iran, then that is perfectly fine and not at all a problem. Indeed I wholeheartedly agree.
Indeed. We are exceptional, we're not average and we should be thankful for that, we are lucky to live in one of the best off nations in the world. Almost every nation is to their own extent exceptional whether for good or ill, it is our exceptions that make us unique. Some of those exceptions are good and some will not be.
One other area where we are fortunate is being an island nation without a land border. That means we are more capable than most other nations of tracking people who have recently entered the country, which nations with an unmanned land border aren't able to do.
How quickly Northern Ireland has been excluded from the country.
Touché.
Though Northern Ireland doesn't have a land border with England, Scotland or Wales.
I bow to no-one in my scepticism in the current world economic model (America borrows from China to buy goods from China which then lends the money it made by selling the goods to America...), but really, a slowdown of this type is not *that* serious.
When the coronavirus pandemic finishes (and it will finish*), then economic activity will bounce back. I also have little doubt that governments will use the slowdown as an excuse to get the printing presses revved up again, and monetisation of government debt will go full throttle.
* I make no forecast when this will be, and I don't mean to minimise the seriousness of this, but at some point it will be over.
Philip Thompson is right. You are ignoring the permanent damage a shock like this will do (even if, please God, it is brief)
Lots of businesses will fold, for good. They can't suddenly come back to life. Inflation will spike, also = trouble. Even when the virus is done there will be grieving, and prolonged health issues = subdued economic activity. Travel will be unpopular for a loooong time
This will have many many ripple effects, economically, and nearly all of them will be negative.
I do hate to be constantly gloomy (I wish I could be otherwise) but I see no basis for cheery optimism.
Again, our biggest hope is sunshine. Colds hate the warm. Bring on the bloody sunshine.
Turn the heating up. Have a hot bath. Make a cup of tea. And pull yourself together.
As China encourages people to return to work despite the coronavirus outbreak, it has begun a bold mass experiment in using data to regulate citizens' lives -- by requiring them to use software on their smartphones that dictates whether they should be quarantined or allowed into subways, malls and other public spaces.
But a New York Times analysis of the software's code found that the system does more than decide in real time whether someone poses a contagion risk. It also appears to share information with the police, setting a template for new forms of automated social control that could persist long after the epidemic subsides.As China encourages people to return to work despite the coronavirus outbreak, it has begun a bold mass experiment in using data to regulate citizens' lives -- by requiring them to use software on their smartphones that dictates whether they should be quarantined or allowed into subways, malls and other public spaces. But a New York Times analysis of the software's code found that the system does more than decide in real time whether someone poses a contagion risk. It also appears to share information with the police, setting a template for new forms of automated social control that could persist long after the epidemic subsides.
That's why we need the government banging on and on, on the TV, telling everyone this is serious. It doesn't matter if they fecking panic. Just get them to wash their hands
What if you already washed your hands in the first place?
Comments
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/03/01/downing-street-department-health-locked-row-access-eu-pandemic/
Unfortunately so are the comments. The people there are properly, howling at the moon, insane. A typical (yes, typical) response to trying to coordinate a response to a serious health threat:
They just don´t get it, do they? - the British psyche is based on being an island race - not part of some ersatz pan-European continent pretence of being all one big happy family.
We don't need to subscribe to a million little Lilliputian threads that tie us back to Brussels like apron strings.
Looking forward to the paywall going back up...
It might be the start of a recession or it might be a blip, a recession requires two quarters not one month.
https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/nation/2020/03/119_285427.html
Doctors, nurses and other medical professionals here are complaining about fatigue and exhaustion as the number of coronavirus patients continues to increase in Daegu and other parts of the country, according to officials from local governments and hospitals Monday.
Acute fatigue has led some nurses to quit en masse, causing shortages in Daegu and neighboring North Gyeongsang Province, which the new coronavirus has hit hardest.
Korea has reported thousands of infected patients, of whom more than 80 percent have come from Daegu and North Gyeongsang Province.
Pohang Medical Center in North Gyeongsang Province ― which the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention designated as a hospital to handle exclusively coronavirus patients ― is grappling with a shortage of medical personnel after 16 of about 100 nurses quit last week.
The 16 nurses cited overwork, in addition to personal reasons such as the need to take care of their children, as their reasons for quitting. Medical staff at hospitals designated to care for coronavirus patients must stay within the hospital and are not allowed to return to their homes until the outbreak ends...
The - and we want rid of them so are happy to provide coaches and escorts to the border is left unsaid.
The decision to turn down Beard is believed to have happened at the end of Theresa May’s premiership...
I think your prejudices get the better of you sometimes, too ?
The 65-year-old scholar has been rejected by Downing Street as a trustee of the British Museum, the Observer understands. Whitehall sources said the decision last year to turn her down had been made because of her pro-European views, which she has frequently expressed via social media.
But I see later in the article they do mention May.
https://twitter.com/MickJon95058639/status/1234495852112158720
These are :
Nina Turner (Sanders VP ?)
Kamal Harris (Biden VP ?)
Stacey Abrams - Other potential VP
Mike Pence (Trump VP)
Buttigieg
Klobuchar
Warren (Neutral or not too red at current prices; reback for Pres when she is "defeated")
I wouldn't bother with Tulsi Gabbard.
https://www.theguardian.com/books/2020/mar/01/british-museum-put-mary-beard-on-the-board-despite-downing-st-veto
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32097725
https://youtu.be/2k448JqQyj8
It is very probably more infectious than seasonal influenza, but nowhere near (say) measles (though of course more serious).
What makes it more difficult to prevent the spread is the asymptomatic spreaders.
Here's an old table:
https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/ng-interactive/2014/oct/15/visualised-how-ebola-compares-to-other-infectious-diseases
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5u4hAxi5b6o&
Of course that's harder to do.
https://twitter.com/twlldun/status/1234528004627410945/photo/1
When the coronavirus pandemic finishes (and it will finish*), then economic activity will bounce back. I also have little doubt that governments will use the slowdown as an excuse to get the printing presses revved up again, and monetisation of government debt will go full throttle.
* I make no forecast when this will be, and I don't mean to minimise the seriousness of this, but at some point it will be over.
https://thehill.com/policy/finance/485465-warren-proposes-400b-stimulus-plan-to-fight-economic-damage-from-coronavirus
Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), a 2020 presidential candidate, on Monday said that Congress should pass a $400 billion stimulus bill with paid emergency sick leave to counteract the economic damage caused by the coronavirus outbreak.
Warren urged lawmakers to immediately pass a bill to fend off potential job losses, business failures, and consumer financial threats driven by the spreading coronavirus and the efforts to contain it.
“Companies across America are already struggling with supply chain disruptions, and we don’t want these temporary struggles to lead to widespread layoffs or for otherwise solid companies to go under,” Warren wrote in a Monday proposal....
If there is a major hit to certain sectors there are a lot of businesses that could go out of business in the meantime even if it is temporary. For example if people stop going out for meals or to events etc then that could put many hospitality firms out of business and their employees losing their jobs whether or not this slowdown is temporary.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/02/opinion/rubin-economy-democrats.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage
So no, I’ve checked my prejudice, and I’m clean.
Only 16% think the government is handling it badly
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/02/opinion/joe-biden-bernie-sanders.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage
If you don’t understand this then be glad.
Though Northern Ireland doesn't have a land border with England, Scotland or Wales.
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1234529030541541376?s=20
But its true. The government and NHS know what they are doing and are doing it well.
“All things are ready, if our mind be so.”
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1234501164818931715?s=20
Sanders 2.08
Biden 2.96
Bloomberg 11
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.128161111
Call yourself British?
But a New York Times analysis of the software's code found that the system does more than decide in real time whether someone poses a contagion risk. It also appears to share information with the police, setting a template for new forms of automated social control that could persist long after the epidemic subsides.As China encourages people to return to work despite the coronavirus outbreak, it has begun a bold mass experiment in using data to regulate citizens' lives -- by requiring them to use software on their smartphones that dictates whether they should be quarantined or allowed into subways, malls and other public spaces. But a New York Times analysis of the software's code found that the system does more than decide in real time whether someone poses a contagion risk. It also appears to share information with the police, setting a template for new forms of automated social control that could persist long after the epidemic subsides.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/01/business/china-coronavirus-surveillance.html
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1234490394223824898?s=20
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1234487619104452614?s=20