Italy now has 52 dead (which is sad) and 340 new cases today.
349 cases is a lot, but it is actually a lot LESS than yesterday, which saw a 566 increase.
Way too early to be properly optimistic, but worth noting.
The comments from the WHO director has given me some hope. A proper lock down can seriously slow this.
Here's a very interesting trend.
There seem to be two types of growth for this bug. In countries like South Korea, Italy, Germany, Iran, etc, it is growing exponentially.
In much of East Asia, that is not the case: in Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore and Japan you see a very different growth. It is slow, but steady - and the pattern is exactly the same for all of them.
Someone yesterday said this was because Japan is not testing enough, but I do not think that this applies to Singapore.
So maybe there is hope there, too. In East Asia they have got something right.
Or they happen to live somewhere warmer this time of year....
Yes, that too (which is also a hopeful sign).
And note that the most afflicted part of Japan is the frozen north: Hokkaido.
We maybe just need some bloody hot weather. We need to manage this in the UK so we can make it to May. Then we need a vaccine before autumn.
Time for prayers.
No! Time for reason and logic. Ask the followers of Shincheonji Church of Jesus or those licking the shrines in Iran for good health.
Just heard the latest Patel allegations relating to her behaviour while at DWP on BBC News. Utterly extraordinary. If there's any substance to them, she can't possibly survive.
I have no idea whether Patel survives or not, and she is not my idea for high office, but the combined attack from the left does make it look like there is a campaign to take her down due to her strong immigration and law and order views
If an unaccountable mandarin can take down an elected politician then that cannot be right without exceptional circumstances
We shall see but I do not expect labour to regain votes in the red wall seats on this
This is not about an attack from the 'left'. It's the sort of vile behaviour that should be regarded as intolerable in the case of any employee, never mind a government minister.
The BBC report says the person concerned made the initial formal complaint against DWP before Patel was even a minister.
Moreover Its not clear whether reports of Patel shouting at the person are even corroborated or could have been dreamed up by someone who had already brought a complaint against DWP earlier.
The 'didn;t like your face' comments were made by a manager and not Patel and may not represent her true views.
Just heard the latest Patel allegations relating to her behaviour while at DWP on BBC News. Utterly extraordinary. If there's any substance to them, she can't possibly survive.
I have no idea whether Patel survives or not, and she is not my idea for high office, but the combined attack from the left does make it look like there is a campaign to take her down due to her strong immigration and law and order views
If an unaccountable mandarin can take down an elected politician then that cannot be right without exceptional circumstances
We shall see but I do not expect labour to regain votes in the red wall seats on this
What has law and order got to do with staff ending up feeling suicidal due to bullying?
if you believe the civil servant... nothing has yet been proved.
Of course, she should get a fair hearing. Whether she survives or not will be to do with her behaviour and management not her politics or those of her critics.
Big movement in the Betfair Exchange odds for the Democratic nomination. Gap between Sanders and Biden now less than 0.5 and getting smaller all the time.
Chesham Dogging @MickJon95058639 Due to the #CoronaOutbreak all of our parties have been cancelled until further notice. We apologise for any inconvenience caused.
Just heard the latest Patel allegations relating to her behaviour while at DWP on BBC News. Utterly extraordinary. If there's any substance to them, she can't possibly survive.
I have no idea whether Patel survives or not, and she is not my idea for high office, but the combined attack from the left does make it look like there is a campaign to take her down due to her strong immigration and law and order views
If an unaccountable mandarin can take down an elected politician then that cannot be right without exceptional circumstances
We shall see but I do not expect labour to regain votes in the red wall seats on this
This is not about an attack from the 'left'. It's the sort of vile behaviour that should be regarded as intolerable in the case of any employee, never mind a government minister.
The BBC report says the person concerned made the initial formal complaint against DWP before Patel was even a minister.
Moreover Its not clear whether reports of Patel shouting at the person are even corroborated or could have been dreamed up by someone who had already brought a complaint against DWP earlier.
The 'didn;t like your face' comments were made by a manager and not Patel and may not represent her true views.
As I said, 'alleged',. But if true, she should go on the grounds of human decency.
Italy now has 52 dead (which is sad) and 340 new cases today.
349 cases is a lot, but it is actually a lot LESS than yesterday, which saw a 566 increase.
Way too early to be properly optimistic, but worth noting.
The comments from the WHO director has given me some hope. A proper lock down can seriously slow this.
Here's a very interesting trend.
There seem to be two types of growth for this bug. In countries like South Korea, Italy, Germany, Iran, etc, it is growing exponentially.
In much of East Asia, that is not the case: in Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore and Japan you see a very different growth. It is slow, but steady - and the pattern is exactly the same for all of them.
Someone yesterday said this was because Japan is not testing enough, but I do not think that this applies to Singapore.
So maybe there is hope there, too. In East Asia they have got something right.
I think the South Korea example might be a weird outlier due to this cult going undetected for a while. Everything with this virus is a lagged indicator but I get the impression the South Koreans are utilising their resources to very good effect.
And Eadric himself pointed out that new cases in Italy today went down - just before concluding that they are growing exponentially....
Just heard the latest Patel allegations relating to her behaviour while at DWP on BBC News. Utterly extraordinary. If there's any substance to them, she can't possibly survive.
I have no idea whether Patel survives or not, and she is not my idea for high office, but the combined attack from the left does make it look like there is a campaign to take her down due to her strong immigration and law and order views
If an unaccountable mandarin can take down an elected politician then that cannot be right without exceptional circumstances
We shall see but I do not expect labour to regain votes in the red wall seats on this
This is not about an attack from the 'left'. It's the sort of vile behaviour that should be regarded as intolerable in the case of any employee, never mind a government minister.
The BBC report says the person concerned made the initial formal complaint against DWP before Patel was even a minister.
Moreover Its not clear whether reports of Patel shouting at the person are even corroborated or could have been dreamed up by someone who had already brought a complaint against DWP earlier.
The 'didn;t like your face' comments were made by a manager and not Patel and may not represent her true views.
Facts never really matter to those pursuing a vendetta for political reasons.
On Topic Tim, SO & DH FFS not a single party member musing on Lab unless SO is on his 3rd Okeeeey Cokeeeey.
What could show more commitment to Labour than joining in multiple times?
Voting Lab at a GE perhaps
It was not an entirely serious comment. But perhaps you should direct that comment at people who insist they are more Labour than anyone despite not voting Labour before Corbyn, and who have contempt for former Labour goverments. Though they do not seem quite in the ascendency anymore.
Just heard the latest Patel allegations relating to her behaviour while at DWP on BBC News. Utterly extraordinary. If there's any substance to them, she can't possibly survive.
I have no idea whether Patel survives or not, and she is not my idea for high office, but the combined attack from the left does make it look like there is a campaign to take her down due to her strong immigration and law and order views
If an unaccountable mandarin can take down an elected politician then that cannot be right without exceptional circumstances
We shall see but I do not expect labour to regain votes in the red wall seats on this
This is not about an attack from the 'left'. It's the sort of vile behaviour that should be regarded as intolerable in the case of any employee, never mind a government minister.
And if proven then Patel needs to resign.
However, so many remainers and those on the left are presuming guilt without any proof and they need to see the cabinet office investigation first
When the ECHR report on labour anti semitism, I assume those demanding Patel resigns will also do the same for Starmer and RLB who were in the labour cabinet if they conclude it failed to take remedial action
Does anything other than the virus situation genuinely really matter at the moment?
Currently, I honestly couldn't give a crap if Patel shouts and swears at her staff or what the Labour Leadership losers are up to.
Picard. That show is warming up nicely.
The first episode was god awful. Have not ventured further
This will be a petty thing, but I find the level of swearing in it over the top. Not because I'm against swearing, I watched Deadwood for crying out loud, but hearing the Commander in Chief of Starfleet dropping the f bomb just feels weird to me.
And while starfleet always had corrupt admirals and the Federation not so much of a utopia as it seemed, the Federation of Picard hardly seems worth defending as a good society even.
Which is probably part of the point, I suppose, but it's not making me jump up and down in excitement.
I was in Deadwood in October. Kind of sad, a street of Wild West facades behind which almost every shop was a casino, bar, or full of slot machines. Indeed in the ‘wild west’ generally it was striking how much of this slice of history is now packaged and marketed like a theme park.
Was the TV series any good?
It was captivating stuff, though filthy in every sense of the word. Timothy Olyphant and Ian Mcshane were intense as all hell.
Same pairs here, but in reverse order. Didn't think a 2nd spot for A-K would do her much good as Rayner is going to walk it.
I wonder if Rayner will now win by as much as Starmer (assuming it is him) does. I think she has had a very poor campaign up to now. I thought it was a huge mistake of hers not to stand for leader. I am now very glad she didn't.
Whether one likes that Biden is the anti-Sanders option or not, fairplayed to the candidates recognising there's nothing more for them and to duck out before one last hurrah (or not) on Super Tuesday.
Yes I noticed that Waterloo and Southwark were the only stations that seemed to be as crowded as usual when I was there last week. Stations in the City like Bank and Liverpool Street were much quieter than usual. Maybe people are arriving at Waterloo and then walking to their destination. (I know Southwark is a tube station only. Not sure why that was crowded).
I hope I'm not the only one who finds the american habit of referring to people by their former title confusing. I suppose constantly saying 'former' this or that would get old, but still.
Chesham Dogging @MickJon95058639 Due to the #CoronaOutbreak all of our parties have been cancelled until further notice. We apologise for any inconvenience caused.
Italy now has 52 dead (which is sad) and 340 new cases today.
349 cases is a lot, but it is actually a lot LESS than yesterday, which saw a 566 increase.
Way too early to be properly optimistic, but worth noting.
The comments from the WHO director has given me some hope. A proper lock down can seriously slow this.
Here's a very interesting trend.
There seem to be two types of growth for this bug. In countries like South Korea, Italy, Germany, Iran, etc, it is growing exponentially.
In much of East Asia, that is not the case: in Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore and Japan you see a very different growth. It is slow, but steady - and the pattern is exactly the same for all of them.
Someone yesterday said this was because Japan is not testing enough, but I do not think that this applies to Singapore.
So maybe there is hope there, too. In East Asia they have got something right.
I think the South Korea example might be a weird outlier due to this cult going undetected for a while. Everything with this virus is a lagged indicator but I get the impression the South Koreans are utilising their resources to very good effect.
And Eadric himself pointed out that new cases in Italy today went down - just before concluding that they are growing exponentially....
He is tiresome. Posts the same post in a different form every few minutes. It’s caused me to keep away from the site (which admittedly several members will see as an ancillary benefit of Eadric’s mundanity).
Chesham Dogging @MickJon95058639 Due to the #CoronaOutbreak all of our parties have been cancelled until further notice. We apologise for any inconvenience caused.
I guess you just stumbled across this tweet....
It originated from Owen Jones who I follow for a broader perspective on politics
Decent sample size for once (2656). For the 14 Super Tuesday states, they put Sanders 33-24 ahead (Bloomberg 16), though that's before Buttigeg withdrew and tonight's Klobouchar enorsement. There will be plenty of early voting so I expect Sanders will end up ahead, but perhaps not by a huge margin.
Does anything other than the virus situation genuinely really matter at the moment?
Currently, I honestly couldn't give a crap if Patel shouts and swears at her staff or what the Labour Leadership losers are up to.
Big deal , some people do care how these morons treat people. Being unable to articulate their vision without shouting and swearing at staff tells you they are well above their competence level and unfit to do their job.
Yes I noticed that Waterloo and Southwark were the only stations that seemed to be as crowded as usual when I was there last week. Stations in the City like Bank and Liverpool Street were much quieter than usual. Maybe people are arriving at Waterloo and then walking to their destination. (I know Southwark is a tube station only. Not sure why that was crowded).
Point of information: Southwark is for Waterloo East - though it's not used nearly as much as Waterloo and London Bridge.
Agree with @Casino_Royale - SWR is still very busy. I was delayed getting to Waterloo this morning and didn't get down into the Jubilee Line until 08:00, which normally means a crowded train, but it did feel a bit quieter than normal.
Does anything other than the virus situation genuinely really matter at the moment?
Currently, I honestly couldn't give a crap if Patel shouts and swears at her staff or what the Labour Leadership losers are up to.
Big deal , some people do care how these morons treat people. Being unable to articulate their vision without shouting and swearing at staff tells you they are well above their competence level and unfit to do their job.
Malc, I think you need to revisit how you "talk" to people on here!!!!
Italy now has 52 dead (which is sad) and 340 new cases today.
349 cases is a lot, but it is actually a lot LESS than yesterday, which saw a 566 increase.
Way too early to be properly optimistic, but worth noting.
The comments from the WHO director has given me some hope. A proper lock down can seriously slow this.
Here's a very interesting trend.
There seem to be two types of growth for this bug. In countries like South Korea, Italy, Germany, Iran, etc, it is growing exponentially.
In much of East Asia, that is not the case: in Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore and Japan you see a very different growth. It is slow, but steady - and the pattern is exactly the same for all of them.
Someone yesterday said this was because Japan is not testing enough, but I do not think that this applies to Singapore.
So maybe there is hope there, too. In East Asia they have got something right.
I think the South Korea example might be a weird outlier due to this cult going undetected for a while. Everything with this virus is a lagged indicator but I get the impression the South Koreans are utilising their resources to very good effect.
Which means East Asia has a different pattern of disease-growth to Europe.
Why is this? Just the climate? Better containment?
I don't think there is a Europe/SE Asia dichotomy and I also think the climate is likely to be a total red herring.
The severity of the problem seems to be linked to the surveillance system in place.
The Chinese let it rip for at least 4 weeks in a high density population. In Italy it looks like it was allowed to go undetected for a few weeks at least.
Once it is found it perhaps can be stopped due to its modest R0 but the size of the counter measures required are dependent on how far it has been allowed to go.
So if good surveillance is crucial then lots of testing is crucial to that. So the NHS tractors stats on this are reassuring.
If that theory is correct then the US might be a little bit stuffed and will need a big correction
Just heard the latest Patel allegations relating to her behaviour while at DWP on BBC News. Utterly extraordinary. If there's any substance to them, she can't possibly survive.
I have no idea whether Patel survives or not, and she is not my idea for high office, but the combined attack from the left does make it look like there is a campaign to take her down due to her strong immigration and law and order views
If an unaccountable mandarin can take down an elected politician then that cannot be right without exceptional circumstances
We shall see but I do not expect labour to regain votes in the red wall seats on this
G, she proves yet again that she has been promoted well above her competence level. A liar and a bully should not be in charge of the Home Office.
Italy now has 52 dead (which is sad) and 340 new cases today.
349 cases is a lot, but it is actually a lot LESS than yesterday, which saw a 566 increase.
Way too early to be properly optimistic, but worth noting.
Places that move to heavy lockdown quickly seem to attenuate it pretty quickly. Bearing in mind it is only a little over a week since the outbreak was recognised. These are people mostly infected before shutdown.
Texas may be the most interesting primary tomorrow. Sanders has a small lead in the polls but in South Carolina Biden performed better than they forecast.
I'm very green on both Biden and Sanders, but to my amazement have found an old £5 bet that Romney would win in 2020. Not sure that long shot is coming home
I'm very green on both Biden and Sanders, but to my amazement have found an old £5 bet that Romney would win in 2020. Not sure that long shot is coming home
Just heard the latest Patel allegations relating to her behaviour while at DWP on BBC News. Utterly extraordinary. If there's any substance to them, she can't possibly survive.
I have no idea whether Patel survives or not, and she is not my idea for high office, but the combined attack from the left does make it look like there is a campaign to take her down due to her strong immigration and law and order views
If an unaccountable mandarin can take down an elected politician then that cannot be right without exceptional circumstances
We shall see but I do not expect labour to regain votes in the red wall seats on this
This is not about an attack from the 'left'. It's the sort of vile behaviour that should be regarded as intolerable in the case of any employee, never mind a government minister.
And if proven then Patel needs to resign.
However, so many remainers and those on the left are presuming guilt without any proof and they need to see the cabinet office investigation first
When the ECHR report on labour anti semitism, I assume those demanding Patel resigns will also do the same for Starmer and RLB who were in the labour cabinet if they conclude it failed to take remedial action
That doesn't make sense.
Priti is accused of a personal indiscretion.
You are accusing Starmer and Long Bailey of belonging to an institutionally racist political party (yes they do belong to an institutionally racist political party). If they have to resign everyone else in the party should also resign.
Indeed. No discernible difference on my Tube commute. Anyone would think some people infer a change that simply isn’t there.
The change is a public health crisis predicted to happen in the future, and predicted with a high degree of confidence by people like the WHO and PHE, with no credible dissenting voices that I have heard. Public transport usage would in the usual course be a not very interesting lagging indicator of this future crisis, so what could your tube commute today possibly tell us? It's as if the Met office predicted rain for the weekend and you said Well, no sign of anybody carrying an umbrella today so it ain't happening. It is legitimate to be uninterested in the subject and irritated with the amount of air time given to it, but not to deny the evidence on wholly irrational grounds.
No doubt about it Amy dropping out will benefit Biden disproportionately unlike Pete dropping who's second choice support splits evenly between the rest.
Does anything other than the virus situation genuinely really matter at the moment?
Currently, I honestly couldn't give a crap if Patel shouts and swears at her staff or what the Labour Leadership losers are up to.
Picard. That show is warming up nicely.
The first episode was god awful. Have not ventured further
Don't bother. It's terrible, I'm going to finish the first season because I'm invested now, but if I had known it was going to be this bad I wouldn't have bothered. There's no single thing that's bad and could easily be fixed, it's absolutely everything that's just awful.
Best of luck and delighted you have got in before the health service implodes. Fwiw I had what I am guessing is the same procedure 7 years ago and I'm still in business.
Female. Midwestern. Solid stump performance (Mexican President error aside - but hard to get through a campaign without one). Strong Senate experience (given the odds of Biden dying during term are fairly high due to his age).
Biden is in from the low 20s on Betfair on 24 February to 2.4 or less today. Winner or not, that is a turnaround for the ages, particularly given the circumstances.
Just heard the latest Patel allegations relating to her behaviour while at DWP on BBC News. Utterly extraordinary. If there's any substance to them, she can't possibly survive.
I have no idea whether Patel survives or not, and she is not my idea for high office, but the combined attack from the left does make it look like there is a campaign to take her down due to her strong immigration and law and order views
If an unaccountable mandarin can take down an elected politician then that cannot be right without exceptional circumstances
We shall see but I do not expect labour to regain votes in the red wall seats on this
This is not about an attack from the 'left'. It's the sort of vile behaviour that should be regarded as intolerable in the case of any employee, never mind a government minister.
And if proven then Patel needs to resign.
However, so many remainers and those on the left are presuming guilt without any proof and they need to see the cabinet office investigation first
When the ECHR report on labour anti semitism, I assume those demanding Patel resigns will also do the same for Starmer and RLB who were in the labour cabinet if they conclude it failed to take remedial action
That doesn't make sense. Priti is accused of a personal indiscretion.
You are accusing Starmer and Long Bailey of belonging to an institutionally racist political party (yes they do belong to an institutionally racist political party). If they have to resign everyone else in the party should also resign.
If you read what I said you will see that if the ECHR confirmed that the labour party and by definition the shadow cabinet failed to address the issue then those still in senior positions who were in that cabinet will have to accept responsibility
Best of luck and delighted you have got in before the health service implodes. Fwiw I had what I am guessing is the same procedure 7 years ago and I'm still in business.
Yes I’ll,find out if it has spread and how much they have to remove. The system out here is holding up very well so at the moment things looking good. Thanks
Just heard the latest Patel allegations relating to her behaviour while at DWP on BBC News. Utterly extraordinary. If there's any substance to them, she can't possibly survive.
I have no idea whether Patel survives or not, and she is not my idea for high office, but the combined attack from the left does make it look like there is a campaign to take her down due to her strong immigration and law and order views
If an unaccountable mandarin can take down an elected politician then that cannot be right without exceptional circumstances
We shall see but I do not expect labour to regain votes in the red wall seats on this
G, she proves yet again that she has been promoted well above her competence level. A liar and a bully should not be in charge of the Home Office.
If it is proven then she will have to resign and I have never been a fan of Patel
But I do not like a lynch mob and there are two sides to every story
Does anything other than the virus situation genuinely really matter at the moment?
Currently, I honestly couldn't give a crap if Patel shouts and swears at her staff or what the Labour Leadership losers are up to.
Picard. That show is warming up nicely.
The first episode was god awful. Have not ventured further
Don't bother. It's terrible, I'm going to finish the first season because I'm invested now, but if I had known it was going to be this bad I wouldn't have bothered. There's no single thing that's bad and could easily be fixed, it's absolutely everything that's just awful.
Best of luck and delighted you have got in before the health service implodes. Fwiw I had what I am guessing is the same procedure 7 years ago and I'm still in business.
Yes I’ll,find out if it has spread and how much they have to remove. The system out here is holding up very well so at the moment things looking good. Thanks
Female. Midwestern. Solid stump performance (Mexican President error aside - but hard to get through a campaign without one). Strong Senate experience (given the odds of Biden dying during term are fairly high due to his age).
She has come in to favourite. But it does depend on Biden getting the nomination, making her odds look short to me (edit/although the market is extremely thin)
Just heard the latest Patel allegations relating to her behaviour while at DWP on BBC News. Utterly extraordinary. If there's any substance to them, she can't possibly survive.
I have no idea whether Patel survives or not, and she is not my idea for high office, but the combined attack from the left does make it look like there is a campaign to take her down due to her strong immigration and law and order views
If an unaccountable mandarin can take down an elected politician then that cannot be right without exceptional circumstances
We shall see but I do not expect labour to regain votes in the red wall seats on this
This is not about an attack from the 'left'. It's the sort of vile behaviour that should be regarded as intolerable in the case of any employee, never mind a government minister.
And if proven then Patel needs to resign.
However, so many remainers and those on the left are presuming guilt without any proof and they need to see the cabinet office investigation first
When the ECHR report on labour anti semitism, I assume those demanding Patel resigns will also do the same for Starmer and RLB who were in the labour cabinet if they conclude it failed to take remedial action
That doesn't make sense. Priti is accused of a personal indiscretion.
You are accusing Starmer and Long Bailey of belonging to an institutionally racist political party (yes they do belong to an institutionally racist political party). If they have to resign everyone else in the party should also resign.
If you read what I said you will see that if the ECHR confirmed that the labour party and by definition the shadow cabinet failed to address the issue then those still in senior positions who were in that cabinet will have to accept responsibility
Still not sure the two are anything like comparable.
If Starmer or RLB are caught on Facebook wearing SS uniforms, yes they should go. Apparently to date they haven't,
Jeremy on the other hand has enough unpleasant personal baggage to be drummed out of the EDL let alone the Labour Party. Jeremy's case is comparable with Priti's but for differing reasons.
Whether one likes that Biden is the anti-Sanders option or not, fairplayed to the candidates recognising there's nothing more for them and to duck out before one last hurrah (or not) on Super Tuesday.
I strongly suspect Klobuchar and Buttigieg have been leaned on extremely heavily behind the scenes by Democratic Party bigwigs.
Both are broadly in line with Biden politically, and against Sanders. Both have time on their side.
Klobuchar is 59 and a strong choice for Veep. Lose, and she's a reasonable contender in 2024. Win and she's a strong contender in 2028 (or before, Biden being the age he is). But hang on until tomorrow and screw it up for Biden, and she's finished.
Buttigieg is 38. He has 30 years for attitudes to evolve in America such that they are ready for a gay President. He has the world at his feet politically... again, if he doesn't do something silly like hand Bernie the nomination against advice.
Bloomberg is a different story... he's old and doesn't give a flying **** if he burns bridges with a party of which he's been a member for all of a year.
Indeed. No discernible difference on my Tube commute. Anyone would think some people infer a change that simply isn’t there.
The change is a public health crisis predicted to happen in the future, and predicted with a high degree of confidence by people like the WHO and PHE, with no credible dissenting voices that I have heard. Public transport usage would in the usual course be a not very interesting lagging indicator of this future crisis, so what could your tube commute today possibly tell us? It's as if the Met office predicted rain for the weekend and you said Well, no sign of anybody carrying an umbrella today so it ain't happening. It is legitimate to be uninterested in the subject and irritated with the amount of air time given to it, but not to deny the evidence on wholly irrational grounds.
Except that people’s panic can be a leading indicator. Cf. Downthread.
Female. Midwestern. Solid stump performance (Mexican President error aside - but hard to get through a campaign without one). Strong Senate experience (given the odds of Biden dying during term are fairly high due to his age).
She has come in to favourite. But it does depend on Biden getting the nomination, making her odds look short to me (edit/although the market is extremely thin)
Yes, I also checked and the liquidity isn't there. At 9-2, I'd say she'd be value.
You are quite right she's probably dependent on Biden being nominee - although it's also worth noting that, in a brokered convention, he's likely to be nominee. I'd also not totally rule out Klobuchar being Bernie's Veep candidate. I don't think she and Sanders have personal beef (unlike her and Buttigieg, despite their political similarities). She'd balance the ticket, and Democrat high command may put pressure on Sanders, if chosen, to do that.
Just heard the latest Patel allegations relating to her behaviour while at DWP on BBC News. Utterly extraordinary. If there's any substance to them, she can't possibly survive.
I have no idea whether Patel survives or not, and she is not my idea for high office, but the combined attack from the left does make it look like there is a campaign to take her down due to her strong immigration and law and order views
If an unaccountable mandarin can take down an elected politician then that cannot be right without exceptional circumstances
We shall see but I do not expect labour to regain votes in the red wall seats on this
This is not about an attack from the 'left'. It's the sort of vile behaviour that should be regarded as intolerable in the case of any employee, never mind a government minister.
And if proven then Patel needs to resign.
However, so many remainers and those on the left are presuming guilt without any proof and they need to see the cabinet office investigation first
When the ECHR report on labour anti semitism, I assume those demanding Patel resigns will also do the same for Starmer and RLB who were in the labour cabinet if they conclude it failed to take remedial action
That doesn't make sense. Priti is accused of a personal indiscretion.
You are accusing Starmer and Long Bailey of belonging to an institutionally racist political party (yes they do belong to an institutionally racist political party). If they have to resign everyone else in the party should also resign.
If you read what I said you will see that if the ECHR confirmed that the labour party and by definition the shadow cabinet failed to address the issue then those still in senior positions who were in that cabinet will have to accept responsibility
Still not sure the two are anything like comparable.
If Starmer or RLB are caught on Facebook wearing SS uniforms, yes they should go. Apparently to date they haven't,
Jeremy on the other hand has enough unpleasant personal baggage to be drummed out of the EDL let alone the Labour Party. Jeremy's case is comparable with Priti's but for differing reasons.
If the ECHR find against the labour party the leaders, shadow cabinet, NEC and others will face very serious questions and possible litigation and multiple compensation claims
This is very serious and way above one cabinet minister
Yes I noticed that Waterloo and Southwark were the only stations that seemed to be as crowded as usual when I was there last week. Stations in the City like Bank and Liverpool Street were much quieter than usual. Maybe people are arriving at Waterloo and then walking to their destination. (I know Southwark is a tube station only. Not sure why that was crowded).
Here in NYC my commute (Metro-North commuter rail and 4/5 train subway from Grand Central to the financial district) seemed a little quiet for a Monday, which is usually the busiest day in my experience. It felt more like a Friday, which tends to be a bit quieter as it's the most common day folks take for a long weekend.
Indeed. No discernible difference on my Tube commute. Anyone would think some people infer a change that simply isn’t there.
The change is a public health crisis predicted to happen in the future, and predicted with a high degree of confidence by people like the WHO and PHE, with no credible dissenting voices that I have heard. Public transport usage would in the usual course be a not very interesting lagging indicator of this future crisis, so what could your tube commute today possibly tell us? It's as if the Met office predicted rain for the weekend and you said Well, no sign of anybody carrying an umbrella today so it ain't happening. It is legitimate to be uninterested in the subject and irritated with the amount of air time given to it, but not to deny the evidence on wholly irrational grounds.
Except that people’s panic can be a leading indicator. Cf. Downthread.
Your obsession with a fellow poster is driving you mad. Epidemiologists are a better source of information on epidemics than the anecdotes of public transport users.
Italy now has 52 dead (which is sad) and 340 new cases today.
349 cases is a lot, but it is actually a lot LESS than yesterday, which saw a 566 increase.
Way too early to be properly optimistic, but worth noting.
Places that move to heavy lockdown quickly seem to attenuate it pretty quickly. Bearing in mind it is only a little over a week since the outbreak was recognised. These are people mostly infected before shutdown.
I think that’s a key point.
What the media report as “new” infections may well be largely discoveries of people already infected, particularly within the Italian cordon. Which is doubly good news - firstly, the numbers should drop as test results on those inside the cordon, or their previous contacts, come through and there are fewer people untested.
And secondly, these are people who haven’t been ill (enough) to bother seeking out a test previously. They are unnoticed cases. The presence of larger numbers of carriers who aren’t particularly ill (or who have recovered on their own) is good news for the statistical projections.
If Sanders is nominee, he still has to win the General Election. Lose, and he's a nobody. There's nothing so ex than an ex-Presidential candidate. They typically cut pretty sad figures; ghosts at the feast. Bernie will meet that description more than any if he loses - far too old for one last act, and with too few friends.
It's an interesting counterfactual to think of a defeated Donald Trump in 2016. It was pretty obvious that the Republicans were in the process of dropping him like a handful of sh*t, when he suddenly won. Had he lost, he'd have been absolutely buried. Winning is everything.
However, so many remainers and those on the left are presuming guilt without any proof and they need to see the cabinet office investigation first
This is the warp and weft of politics. I'm quite certain during the Blair/Brown years Conservative MPs would routinely call for Labour Government resignations.
Labour is just playing the same game. If the Cabinet Office investigation is damning, Patel will have to go but if not there is no reason for her to resign though she may face some form of censure.
However, so many remainers and those on the left are presuming guilt without any proof and they need to see the cabinet office investigation first
This is the warp and weft of politics. I'm quite certain during the Blair/Brown years Conservative MPs would routinely call for Labour Government resignations.
Labour is just playing the same game. If the Cabinet Office investigation is damning, Patel will have to go but if not there is no reason for her to resign though she may face some form of censure.
Italy now has 52 dead (which is sad) and 340 new cases today.
349 cases is a lot, but it is actually a lot LESS than yesterday, which saw a 566 increase.
Way too early to be properly optimistic, but worth noting.
Places that move to heavy lockdown quickly seem to attenuate it pretty quickly. Bearing in mind it is only a little over a week since the outbreak was recognised. These are people mostly infected before shutdown.
I think that’s a key point.
What the media report as “new” infections may well be largely discoveries of people already infected, particularly within the Italian cordon. Which is doubly good news - firstly, the numbers should drop as test results on those inside the cordon, or their previous contacts, come through and there are fewer people untested.
And secondly, these are people who haven’t been ill (enough) to bother seeking out a test previously. They are unnoticed cases. The presence of larger numbers of carriers who aren’t particularly ill (or who have recovered on their own) is good news for the statistical projections.
Though quite a few are now very sick.
COVID19 seems to take 7-10 days to become symptomatic and a similar period of time to reach the critical stage.
I think that a lot of the new diagnosed are entering that second phase.
Texas is looking to me like the bellweather right now. If Biden takes it then Sanders is unlikely to have a big enough delegate lead to make him look insurmountable and Biden will have shown enough popularity to stand a good chance of catching him via later states. If Sanders can hold on then it suggests he is gaining enough of the drop-outs' voters to be the decent favourite going forward. And Texas was a strong Bloomberg state once so we get a sense of if he will be a factor going forward.
I had a fever of 38.5 yesterday with no cold / runny nose type symptoms. 'No concerns' over Coronavirus from 111/GP given my lack of travel history, so they didn't want to test and I was given the all clear to return to work once symptoms have cleared.
I thought it was an interesting anecdote as to how wide they are casting the net for testing.
Are we missing that Warren is now routinely polling a solid third now, clearly ahead of Bloomberg in both states and nationals?
Her price in the 60s for the nomination and 130s for the presidency looks value to me, not least because she could reap a bigger chunk of delegates than him and then her price will come in.
If Sanders falls victim to the actuarial then she’s the natural successor.
Sanders has only got till July to snuff it because Betfair is betting on who is nominated at the Convention in July, not who runs in November.
Next President market, Klobuchar. If she is the VP pick, she might have to step in.
Biden is in from the low 20s on Betfair on 24 February to 2.4 or less today. Winner or not, that is a turnaround for the ages, particularly given the circumstances.
I got back on at 18, though admittedly only a nibble. Sadly.
The consolidation of the moderate wing of the Democratic party is belated but inevitable. I still think stopping Sanders is going to be very difficult but it is at least now possible. Bloomberg looks an irritating irrelevance.
None of this means that Biden is a good candidate. He's showing his very considerable age, he's got a record of saying unwise things and touching things he shouldn't, I find the thing with his son a lot more troubling than anything Trump was alleged to have done in that particular case and he's not a particularly effective speaker. Under most circumstances I would give him pretty much no chance against Trump.
But the US approach to this virus has shown up the worst aspects of American politics. The reluctance to spend money for the public good, the obsession with seeing the State and its organs as the problem rather than the solution, the shocking quality of medical care available to so many of its people, I think Trump may well end up facing a massive backlash. Add in a probable recession and even Biden has a chance. But he has to beat Sanders first and that is not a done deal, not by any means.
Just heard the latest Patel allegations relating to her behaviour while at DWP on BBC News. Utterly extraordinary. If there's any substance to them, she can't possibly survive.
I have no idea whether Patel survives or not, and she is not my idea for high office, but the combined attack from the left does make it look like there is a campaign to take her down due to her strong immigration and law and order views
If an unaccountable mandarin can take down an elected politician then that cannot be right without exceptional circumstances
We shall see but I do not expect labour to regain votes in the red wall seats on this
This is not about an attack from the 'left'. It's the sort of vile behaviour that should be regarded as intolerable in the case of any employee, never mind a government minister.
Ah that explains why Labour were so strong against Bercow when the bullying allegations emerged ...oh....wait.....
Does anything other than the virus situation genuinely really matter at the moment?
Currently, I honestly couldn't give a crap if Patel shouts and swears at her staff or what the Labour Leadership losers are up to.
Picard. That show is warming up nicely.
The first episode was god awful. Have not ventured further
Don't bother. It's terrible, I'm going to finish the first season because I'm invested now, but if I had known it was going to be this bad I wouldn't have bothered. There's no single thing that's bad and could easily be fixed, it's absolutely everything that's just awful.
I'm sure I heard that argument applied to EU membership...
Are we missing that Warren is now routinely polling a solid third now, clearly ahead of Bloomberg in both states and nationals?
Her price in the 60s for the nomination and 130s for the presidency looks value to me, not least because she could reap a bigger chunk of delegates than him and then her price will come in.
If Sanders falls victim to the actuarial then she’s the natural successor.
Sanders has only got till July to snuff it because Betfair is betting on who is nominated at the Convention in July, not who runs in November.
Next President market, Klobuchar. If she is the VP pick, she might have to step in.
In such crazy circumstances, risking £2 to win £2000 has to be worth a punt
Italy now has 52 dead (which is sad) and 340 new cases today.
349 cases is a lot, but it is actually a lot LESS than yesterday, which saw a 566 increase.
Way too early to be properly optimistic, but worth noting.
Places that move to heavy lockdown quickly seem to attenuate it pretty quickly. Bearing in mind it is only a little over a week since the outbreak was recognised. These are people mostly infected before shutdown.
I think that’s a key point.
What the media report as “new” infections may well be largely discoveries of people already infected, particularly within the Italian cordon. Which is doubly good news - firstly, the numbers should drop as test results on those inside the cordon, or their previous contacts, come through and there are fewer people untested.
And secondly, these are people who haven’t been ill (enough) to bother seeking out a test previously. They are unnoticed cases. The presence of larger numbers of carriers who aren’t particularly ill (or who have recovered on their own) is good news for the statistical projections.
Though quite a few are now very sick.
COVID19 seems to take 7-10 days to become symptomatic and a similar period of time to reach the critical stage.
I think that a lot of the new diagnosed are entering that second phase.
Which goes to show how behind the curve the Americans are to have people dying the day they are discovered.
Comments
1 - Nandy
2 - Starmer
1 - Rayner
2 - Allin-Kahn
Will racing go ahead at Cheltenham on 10 March?
Yes 1.21 (was 1.75 yesterday)
No 5.4 (was 2.32 yesterday)
So big move towards racing going ahead - which in turn surely implies better news as a whole.
Moreover Its not clear whether reports of Patel shouting at the person are even corroborated or could have been dreamed up by someone who had already brought a complaint against DWP earlier.
The 'didn;t like your face' comments were made by a manager and not Patel and may not represent her true views.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.128161111
Edit: just seen the Klobuchar news.
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Due to the #CoronaOutbreak all of our parties have been cancelled until further notice. We apologise for any inconvenience caused.
Keep calm and carry on.
However, so many remainers and those on the left are presuming guilt without any proof and they need to see the cabinet office investigation first
When the ECHR report on labour anti semitism, I assume those demanding Patel resigns will also do the same for Starmer and RLB who were in the labour cabinet if they conclude it failed to take remedial action
Biden marching in.
Whereas log graph of total cases has now completely flattened (because China dominates stats and China has levelled off).
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-cases/
Agree with @Casino_Royale - SWR is still very busy. I was delayed getting to Waterloo this morning and didn't get down into the Jubilee Line until 08:00, which normally means a crowded train, but it did feel a bit quieter than normal.
The severity of the problem seems to be linked to the surveillance system in place.
The Chinese let it rip for at least 4 weeks in a high density population. In Italy it looks like it was allowed to go undetected for a few weeks at least.
Once it is found it perhaps can be stopped due to its modest R0 but the size of the counter measures required are dependent on how far it has been allowed to go.
So if good surveillance is crucial then lots of testing is crucial to that. So the NHS tractors stats on this are reassuring.
If that theory is correct then the US might be a little bit stuffed and will need a big correction
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/texas/
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.128161111
Priti is accused of a personal indiscretion.
You are accusing Starmer and Long Bailey of belonging to an institutionally racist political party (yes they do belong to an institutionally racist political party). If they have to resign everyone else in the party should also resign.
Female. Midwestern. Solid stump performance (Mexican President error aside - but hard to get through a campaign without one). Strong Senate experience (given the odds of Biden dying during term are fairly high due to his age).
Thanks
But I do not like a lynch mob and there are two sides to every story
If Starmer or RLB are caught on Facebook wearing SS uniforms, yes they should go. Apparently to date they haven't,
Jeremy on the other hand has enough unpleasant personal baggage to be drummed out of the EDL let alone the Labour Party. Jeremy's case is comparable with Priti's but for differing reasons.
Both are broadly in line with Biden politically, and against Sanders. Both have time on their side.
Klobuchar is 59 and a strong choice for Veep. Lose, and she's a reasonable contender in 2024. Win and she's a strong contender in 2028 (or before, Biden being the age he is). But hang on until tomorrow and screw it up for Biden, and she's finished.
Buttigieg is 38. He has 30 years for attitudes to evolve in America such that they are ready for a gay President. He has the world at his feet politically... again, if he doesn't do something silly like hand Bernie the nomination against advice.
Bloomberg is a different story... he's old and doesn't give a flying **** if he burns bridges with a party of which he's been a member for all of a year.
You are quite right she's probably dependent on Biden being nominee - although it's also worth noting that, in a brokered convention, he's likely to be nominee. I'd also not totally rule out Klobuchar being Bernie's Veep candidate. I don't think she and Sanders have personal beef (unlike her and Buttigieg, despite their political similarities). She'd balance the ticket, and Democrat high command may put pressure on Sanders, if chosen, to do that.
Up 61 - from 130 to 191.
This is very serious and way above one cabinet minister
However, the word is if the ECHR find against
What the media report as “new” infections may well be largely discoveries of people already infected, particularly within the Italian cordon. Which is doubly good news - firstly, the numbers should drop as test results on those inside the cordon, or their previous contacts, come through and there are fewer people untested.
And secondly, these are people who haven’t been ill (enough) to bother seeking out a test previously. They are unnoticed cases. The presence of larger numbers of carriers who aren’t particularly ill (or who have recovered on their own) is good news for the statistical projections.
If Sanders is nominee, he still has to win the General Election. Lose, and he's a nobody. There's nothing so ex than an ex-Presidential candidate. They typically cut pretty sad figures; ghosts at the feast. Bernie will meet that description more than any if he loses - far too old for one last act, and with too few friends.
It's an interesting counterfactual to think of a defeated Donald Trump in 2016. It was pretty obvious that the Republicans were in the process of dropping him like a handful of sh*t, when he suddenly won. Had he lost, he'd have been absolutely buried. Winning is everything.
Labour is just playing the same game. If the Cabinet Office investigation is damning, Patel will have to go but if not there is no reason for her to resign though she may face some form of censure.
COVID19 seems to take 7-10 days to become symptomatic and a similar period of time to reach the critical stage.
I think that a lot of the new diagnosed are entering that second phase.
Ach well. A profit is a profit
I thought it was an interesting anecdote as to how wide they are casting the net for testing.
Her price has come in so far that I'm considering laying off my speculative green on her.
None of this means that Biden is a good candidate. He's showing his very considerable age, he's got a record of saying unwise things and touching things he shouldn't, I find the thing with his son a lot more troubling than anything Trump was alleged to have done in that particular case and he's not a particularly effective speaker. Under most circumstances I would give him pretty much no chance against Trump.
But the US approach to this virus has shown up the worst aspects of American politics. The reluctance to spend money for the public good, the obsession with seeing the State and its organs as the problem rather than the solution, the shocking quality of medical care available to so many of its people, I think Trump may well end up facing a massive backlash. Add in a probable recession and even Biden has a chance. But he has to beat Sanders first and that is not a done deal, not by any means.
Trump still beats Sanders for me.
https://twitter.com/megtirrell/status/1234565528938741760?s=19