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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Away from the virus and WH2020 – a Twitter thread with several

SystemSystem Posts: 12,170
edited March 2020 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Away from the virus and WH2020 – a Twitter thread with several PBers on the LAB leadership

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  • First.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720
    edited March 2020
    First?

    Like Starmer...
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,464
    I think I preferred the other thread!
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    France has effectively declared containment over:

    http://www.leparisien.fr/societe/coronavirus-on-a-tellement-de-cas-suspects-qu-on-ne-peut-plus-depister-tout-le-monde-29-02-2020-8269836.php

    An emergency doctor at the Pitié-Salpêtrière hospital in Paris, where the two coronavirus patients died, Quentin Delannoy explains how the increase in the number of suspected cases in France no longer allows all patients to be tested.
    In the last day or two, there are so many suspicious cases that we can't screen everyone.

    If a person coughs, with a slight fever and comes back from Lombardy (Italy), they are told to go home?

    That's exactly right. If they have a mild form, they are sent home to quarantine without being diagnosed. Obviously, patients are a little reluctant to isolate themselves at home for 14 days when they don't know if they have the coronavirus. Samu is starting to do the same thing. If a patient calls in with a mild fever and cough, they tell them to stay home. It's a concern, but we're dealing with what we have. The hospital is already saturated, the number of beds is not expandable.

    So, whatever France reports, times it by 5 to get real figures.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    edited March 2020
    Does anything other than the virus situation genuinely really matter at the moment?

    Currently, I honestly couldn't give a crap if Patel shouts and swears at her staff or what the Labour Leadership losers are up to.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,914

    I think I preferred the other thread!

    Here's some useful data then (apologies if someone has already posted it)
    https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163

    I think I preferred the other thread!

    Likewise.. we had a nice Number Theory thing starting up....
  • Does anything other than the virus situation genuinely really matter at the moment?

    Currently, I honestly couldn't give a crap if Patel shouts and swears at her staff or what the Labour Leadership losers are up to.

    Picard. That show is warming up nicely.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    edited March 2020

    Does anything other than the virus situation genuinely really matter at the moment?

    Currently, I honestly couldn't give a crap if Patel shouts and swears at her staff or what the Leadership losers are up to.

    If Boris loses Patel he will create a big full-fat rival for himself.

    Every time he backslides on his agenda it will be said that Priti would not do that. Priti dared to go against the civil service elite whose tune he is dancing to. Boris is weak where Priti is strong.

    Not necessarily true, of course, but it will be said nonetheless
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    I thought one of the ways to suspect Coronavirus was that you didn't get a runny nose?

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-8065483/How-does-coronavirus-attack-human-body.html
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,806
    On containment: I'm reminded of the last occasion plague struck London, in the latter half of the 17th century.

    As per law, the infected family's home was boarded up in strict quarantine conditions. The neighbours, wracked with sympathy, released them.

    Plague spread. A great many died.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720

    Does anything other than the virus situation genuinely really matter at the moment?

    Currently, I honestly couldn't give a crap if Patel shouts and swears at her staff or what the Labour Leadership losers are up to.

    Picard. That show is warming up nicely.
    FA cup this week...

    The way Leicester are playing Birmingham look value at 14.5

  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264

    I think I preferred the other thread!

    Here's some useful data then (apologies if someone has already posted it)
    https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
    https://hgis.uw.edu/virus/

    I find that one far more useful, as it gives you an idea of each individual country's timeline of finding cases.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226

    Does anything other than the virus situation genuinely really matter at the moment?

    Currently, I honestly couldn't give a crap if Patel shouts and swears at her staff or what the Labour Leadership losers are up to.

    Corona is certainly THE story right now, but it does matter IMO that Pidcock lost her seat and the Labour Leader contest was thus denuded of edge and excitement.

    Still, Starmer will do. Good guy.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119

    Does anything other than the virus situation genuinely really matter at the moment?

    Currently, I honestly couldn't give a crap if Patel shouts and swears at her staff or what the Labour Leadership losers are up to.

    Picard. That show is warming up nicely.
    I watched the first 3 episodes and I had a horrible feeling it was going to do down this very tired episodic route...new episode, new planet kinda of thing.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,720

    I thought one of the ways to suspect Coronavirus was that you didn't get a runny nose?

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-8065483/How-does-coronavirus-attack-human-body.html

    You can have a cold *and* Covid-19.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818

    On containment: I'm reminded of the last occasion plague struck London, in the latter half of the 17th century.

    As per law, the infected family's home was boarded up in strict quarantine conditions. The neighbours, wracked with sympathy, released them.

    Plague spread. A great many died.

    .......A lot of Siberian hamsters came to London on ships....
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,720
    Chameleon said:

    I think I preferred the other thread!

    Here's some useful data then (apologies if someone has already posted it)
    https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
    https://hgis.uw.edu/virus/

    I find that one far more useful, as it gives you an idea of each individual country's timeline of finding cases.
    Can't see such timelines.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,385
    Foxy said:

    First?

    Like Starmer...

    Is that an omen? Starmer pipped at the post by RLB?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    Chameleon said:

    I think I preferred the other thread!

    Here's some useful data then (apologies if someone has already posted it)
    https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
    https://hgis.uw.edu/virus/

    I find that one far more useful, as it gives you an idea of each individual country's timeline of finding cases.
    Do we believe the rest of China figures? It seems like they have had a lot of cases and very few deaths.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    FPT
    kinabalu said:

    Better handwashing
    Better hygiene
    Better tracking and tracing
    Better self-isolation
    Better awareness
    Better communication
    Better home life
    Better nourished

    Than most of the world.

    That "libertarian" mask slips once more to reveal what lies beneath.
    What do you mean?

    What was illiberal about any of what I wrote? One could argue that tracking and tracing isn't very libertarian - but I'm a libertarian not an anarchist. I don't believe in no state whatsoever.

    Or are you denying that this countries hygiene, handwashing etc that I listed are not better than average across the world? Do we in your eyes have the same nourishment as sub-Saharan Africans? We're a very well off country and should appreciate what we have - billions across the world would love what we can afford to take for granted.

    Don't take what we have for granted.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,385

    I think I preferred the other thread!

    Don't worry, I am sure Eadric can steer us back to Coronavirus.
  • GideonWiseGideonWise Posts: 1,123

    Does anything other than the virus situation genuinely really matter at the moment?

    Currently, I honestly couldn't give a crap if Patel shouts and swears at her staff or what the Labour Leadership losers are up to.

    Personally I just can't take my mind off what the staff to patient ratio is in a care home.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,862
    edited March 2020
    The problem with this is that the Labour leadership election is just boring. We already know who won, it just doesn't get announced for several more weeks.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,385
    eadric said:

    I think I preferred the other thread!

    Don't worry, I am sure Eadric can steer us back to Coronavirus.
    I just did. See the incredible statement from Sturgeon
    Well done!
  • GideonWiseGideonWise Posts: 1,123
    eadric said:

    Credit to Nicola Sturgeon. The first politician to be *almost* completely straight with her voters.

    "We are preparing for a reasonable worst case scenario, where 50-80% of Scots will get coronavirus"


    What she doesn't quite spell out is that this means she is preparing for 4.3 million Scots to get the virus, 86,000 Scots to die, and 430,000 Scots to become critically ill and require hospital treatment.

    Maybe she thinks Scots can't do maths and don't have calculators on their phones.

    https://twitter.com/STVNews/status/1234508512677564418?s=20


    That's still the worse case scenario though eadric.

    You prepare for the worst, you hope for the best.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    eadric said:

    Credit to Nicola Sturgeon. The first politician to be *almost* completely straight with her voters.

    "We are preparing for a reasonable worst case scenario, where 50-80% of Scots will get coronavirus"


    What she doesn't quite spell out is that this means she is preparing for 4.3 million Scots to get the virus, 86,000 Scots to die, and 430,000 Scots to become critically ill and require hospital treatment.

    Maybe she thinks Scots can't do maths and don't have calculators on their phones.

    https://twitter.com/STVNews/status/1234508512677564418?s=20


    https://twitter.com/STVNews/status/1234508512677564418?s=20

    Maybe Scots are canny enough to be ahead of you in working out that this is most unlikely all to happen at once?
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    Could I have move minute by minute doom updates on the FTSE100 from the playas please. It appears to be up on the day, which must be a mistake.
  • GideonWiseGideonWise Posts: 1,123
    matt said:

    Could I have move minute by minute doom updates on the FTSE100 from the playas please. It appears to be up on the day, which must be a mistake.

    A great day to sell (if you didn't already before the crash).
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789

    Does anything other than the virus situation genuinely really matter at the moment?

    Currently, I honestly couldn't give a crap if Patel shouts and swears at her staff or what the Labour Leadership losers are up to.

    Picard. That show is warming up nicely.
    I watched the first 3 episodes and I had a horrible feeling it was going to do down this very tired episodic route...new episode, new planet kinda of thing.
    It’s sh1t. Fanboys* only.

    *let’s be honest, it is boys only.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,862
    eadric said:

    Credit to Nicola Sturgeon. The first politician to be *almost* completely straight with her voters.

    "We are preparing for a reasonable worst case scenario, where 50-80% of Scots will get coronavirus"


    What she doesn't quite spell out is that this means she is preparing for 4.3 million Scots to get the virus, 86,000 Scots to die, and 430,000 Scots to become critically ill and require hospital treatment.

    Maybe she thinks Scots can't do maths and don't have calculators on their phones.

    https://twitter.com/STVNews/status/1234508512677564418?s=20


    https://twitter.com/STVNews/status/1234508512677564418?s=20

    And we have 16,503 acute beds in the country so that is 26 patients per bed. Which doesn't sound ideal for containing the disease.

    http://www.ournhsscotland.com/65-years/65-facts/current-facts
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    matt said:

    Does anything other than the virus situation genuinely really matter at the moment?

    Currently, I honestly couldn't give a crap if Patel shouts and swears at her staff or what the Labour Leadership losers are up to.

    Picard. That show is warming up nicely.
    I watched the first 3 episodes and I had a horrible feeling it was going to do down this very tired episodic route...new episode, new planet kinda of thing.
    It’s sh1t. Fanboys* only.

    *let’s be honest, it is boys only.
    Its very woke.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,708
    I think the best site is this one.

    Click as necessary to get the logarithmic graphs which are important.

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    The Dow Jones has rallied 500 points in trading so far this morning
  • GideonWiseGideonWise Posts: 1,123
    DavidL said:

    eadric said:

    Credit to Nicola Sturgeon. The first politician to be *almost* completely straight with her voters.

    "We are preparing for a reasonable worst case scenario, where 50-80% of Scots will get coronavirus"


    What she doesn't quite spell out is that this means she is preparing for 4.3 million Scots to get the virus, 86,000 Scots to die, and 430,000 Scots to become critically ill and require hospital treatment.

    Maybe she thinks Scots can't do maths and don't have calculators on their phones.

    https://twitter.com/STVNews/status/1234508512677564418?s=20


    https://twitter.com/STVNews/status/1234508512677564418?s=20

    And we have 16,503 acute beds in the country so that is 26 patients per bed. Which doesn't sound ideal for containing the disease.

    http://www.ournhsscotland.com/65-years/65-facts/current-facts
    Better start setting up the portacabins then hadn't we.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,491
    Bloomberg has drifted so far during the day that my book now actually has equity!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,225

    matt said:

    Does anything other than the virus situation genuinely really matter at the moment?

    Currently, I honestly couldn't give a crap if Patel shouts and swears at her staff or what the Labour Leadership losers are up to.

    Picard. That show is warming up nicely.
    I watched the first 3 episodes and I had a horrible feeling it was going to do down this very tired episodic route...new episode, new planet kinda of thing.
    It’s sh1t. Fanboys* only.

    *let’s be honest, it is boys only.
    Its very woke.
    It's VERY slow. Picks up a bit after the first few episodes, so it might be worth skipping them.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    edited March 2020
    Nigelb said:

    matt said:

    Does anything other than the virus situation genuinely really matter at the moment?

    Currently, I honestly couldn't give a crap if Patel shouts and swears at her staff or what the Labour Leadership losers are up to.

    Picard. That show is warming up nicely.
    I watched the first 3 episodes and I had a horrible feeling it was going to do down this very tired episodic route...new episode, new planet kinda of thing.
    It’s sh1t. Fanboys* only.

    *let’s be honest, it is boys only.
    Its very woke.
    It's VERY slow. Picks up a bit after the first few episodes, so it might be worth skipping them.
    I liked the first 3 episodes, I like slow...my fear was exactly what you say that "it picks up"...this week we are on planet A, next week planet B, etc.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,385
    Which is a lot more than he won with Wales.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    That twitter crew sound a right giggle!

    hang on.. "Several PBers"? Dont tell me timbo is still with us?! Noo, surely not.
    Looks like Remain have finally managed to coalesce their vote around one option!
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    eadric said:

    eadric said:

    Credit to Nicola Sturgeon. The first politician to be *almost* completely straight with her voters.

    "We are preparing for a reasonable worst case scenario, where 50-80% of Scots will get coronavirus"


    What she doesn't quite spell out is that this means she is preparing for 4.3 million Scots to get the virus, 86,000 Scots to die, and 430,000 Scots to become critically ill and require hospital treatment.

    Maybe she thinks Scots can't do maths and don't have calculators on their phones.

    https://twitter.com/STVNews/status/1234508512677564418?s=20


    That's still the worse case scenario though eadric.

    You prepare for the worst, you hope for the best.
    Of course. And in fact it is encouraging that the government is up to speed on the real data, not hopecasting, like some others....
    No, you're fearcasting.

    Worst case scenario is not what we expect. Worst case scenario might be that there's a 10% depression next year - but we don't expect that.

    Most people here are talking about what they expect really will or may happen, not the far end of the tail extremely unlikely worst case scenario.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,862

    DavidL said:

    eadric said:

    Credit to Nicola Sturgeon. The first politician to be *almost* completely straight with her voters.

    "We are preparing for a reasonable worst case scenario, where 50-80% of Scots will get coronavirus"


    What she doesn't quite spell out is that this means she is preparing for 4.3 million Scots to get the virus, 86,000 Scots to die, and 430,000 Scots to become critically ill and require hospital treatment.

    Maybe she thinks Scots can't do maths and don't have calculators on their phones.

    https://twitter.com/STVNews/status/1234508512677564418?s=20


    https://twitter.com/STVNews/status/1234508512677564418?s=20

    And we have 16,503 acute beds in the country so that is 26 patients per bed. Which doesn't sound ideal for containing the disease.

    http://www.ournhsscotland.com/65-years/65-facts/current-facts
    Better start setting up the portacabins then hadn't we.
    Yes, or converting schools and gym halls or something. Whilst I remain of the view that these figures are massively pessimistic going on China's experience there is no doubt that we are going to need far more isolation ward capacity. It's not like these 16k beds are in the main suitable for someone with an infectious disease or for that matter currently empty.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,862

    The Dow Jones has rallied 500 points in trading so far this morning

    There's clearly not enough people in the US reading PB. It's their loss.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,225
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    eadric said:

    Credit to Nicola Sturgeon. The first politician to be *almost* completely straight with her voters.

    "We are preparing for a reasonable worst case scenario, where 50-80% of Scots will get coronavirus"


    What she doesn't quite spell out is that this means she is preparing for 4.3 million Scots to get the virus, 86,000 Scots to die, and 430,000 Scots to become critically ill and require hospital treatment.

    Maybe she thinks Scots can't do maths and don't have calculators on their phones.

    https://twitter.com/STVNews/status/1234508512677564418?s=20


    https://twitter.com/STVNews/status/1234508512677564418?s=20

    And we have 16,503 acute beds in the country so that is 26 patients per bed. Which doesn't sound ideal for containing the disease.

    http://www.ournhsscotland.com/65-years/65-facts/current-facts
    Better start setting up the portacabins then hadn't we.
    Yes, or converting schools and gym halls or something. Whilst I remain of the view that these figures are massively pessimistic going on China's experience there is no doubt that we are going to need far more isolation ward capacity. It's not like these 16k beds are in the main suitable for someone with an infectious disease or for that matter currently empty.
    Basically what they're doing on the worst affected region in Korea - the less seriously ill hospitalised patients are being moved out of hospitals to isolation centres, and continuing to receive some treatment there.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,037

    The Dow Jones has rallied 500 points in trading so far this morning

    I'm sure that the virus will take note of this and reduce the number of people it infects for the rest of the day.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,862
    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    eadric said:

    Credit to Nicola Sturgeon. The first politician to be *almost* completely straight with her voters.

    "We are preparing for a reasonable worst case scenario, where 50-80% of Scots will get coronavirus"


    What she doesn't quite spell out is that this means she is preparing for 4.3 million Scots to get the virus, 86,000 Scots to die, and 430,000 Scots to become critically ill and require hospital treatment.

    Maybe she thinks Scots can't do maths and don't have calculators on their phones.

    https://twitter.com/STVNews/status/1234508512677564418?s=20


    https://twitter.com/STVNews/status/1234508512677564418?s=20

    And we have 16,503 acute beds in the country so that is 26 patients per bed. Which doesn't sound ideal for containing the disease.

    http://www.ournhsscotland.com/65-years/65-facts/current-facts
    Better start setting up the portacabins then hadn't we.
    Yes, or converting schools and gym halls or something. Whilst I remain of the view that these figures are massively pessimistic going on China's experience there is no doubt that we are going to need far more isolation ward capacity. It's not like these 16k beds are in the main suitable for someone with an infectious disease or for that matter currently empty.
    Basically what they're doing on the worst affected region in Korea - the less seriously ill hospitalised patients are being moved out of hospitals to isolation centres, and continuing to receive some treatment there.
    Exactly but this is going to require a lot of work and equipment. Oh and some (uninfected) staff would be nice.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,225

    Nigelb said:

    matt said:

    Does anything other than the virus situation genuinely really matter at the moment?

    Currently, I honestly couldn't give a crap if Patel shouts and swears at her staff or what the Labour Leadership losers are up to.

    Picard. That show is warming up nicely.
    I watched the first 3 episodes and I had a horrible feeling it was going to do down this very tired episodic route...new episode, new planet kinda of thing.
    It’s sh1t. Fanboys* only.

    *let’s be honest, it is boys only.
    Its very woke.
    It's VERY slow. Picks up a bit after the first few episodes, so it might be worth skipping them.
    I liked the first 3 episodes, I like slow...my fear was exactly what you say that "it picks up"...this week we are on planet A, next week planet B, etc.
    There's only so much of Patrick Stewart maundering round a vineyard that I can take...
  • Which is a lot more than he won with Wales.
    Bit needlessly harsh. How much did any British player of his era win?

    He was a good 'keeper and would probably have been in contention for a place had there been a UK team. I guess he has to take some blame for defeat against Romania in 1994, but equally he very nearly took them to Euro 92 on his performances alone.
  • isam said:

    That twitter crew sound a right giggle!

    hang on.. "Several PBers"? Dont tell me timbo is still with us?! Noo, surely not.

    Looks like Remain have finally managed to coalesce their vote around one option!
    I'm telling you, EEA.
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 1,993

    Does anything other than the virus situation genuinely really matter at the moment?

    Currently, I honestly couldn't give a crap if Patel shouts and swears at her staff or what the Labour Leadership losers are up to.

    Picard. That show is warming up nicely.
    Babylon Berlin returns for S3 next Friday on Sky Atlantic/Now TV - you only have until August this year to catch up S1 & S2.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,862
    eadric said:

    eadric said:

    eadric said:

    Credit to Nicola Sturgeon. The first politician to be *almost* completely straight with her voters.

    "We are preparing for a reasonable worst case scenario, where 50-80% of Scots will get coronavirus"


    What she doesn't quite spell out is that this means she is preparing for 4.3 million Scots to get the virus, 86,000 Scots to die, and 430,000 Scots to become critically ill and require hospital treatment.

    Maybe she thinks Scots can't do maths and don't have calculators on their phones.

    https://twitter.com/STVNews/status/1234508512677564418?s=20


    That's still the worse case scenario though eadric.

    You prepare for the worst, you hope for the best.
    Of course. And in fact it is encouraging that the government is up to speed on the real data, not hopecasting, like some others....
    No, you're fearcasting.

    Worst case scenario is not what we expect. Worst case scenario might be that there's a 10% depression next year - but we don't expect that.

    Most people here are talking about what they expect really will or may happen, not the far end of the tail extremely unlikely worst case scenario.
    Sturgeon was at the COBRA meeting. She wouldn't have said this if it wasn't cleared by the government.

    But you carry on in your bubble.

    She actually said this is the REASONABLE worst case scenario. Fearcasting would be giving the extreme worst case scenario. F*ck knows what that is.
    In Nicola's case that the last Scot left alive turns out to be a Unionist.
  • GideonWiseGideonWise Posts: 1,123
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    eadric said:

    Credit to Nicola Sturgeon. The first politician to be *almost* completely straight with her voters.

    "We are preparing for a reasonable worst case scenario, where 50-80% of Scots will get coronavirus"


    What she doesn't quite spell out is that this means she is preparing for 4.3 million Scots to get the virus, 86,000 Scots to die, and 430,000 Scots to become critically ill and require hospital treatment.

    Maybe she thinks Scots can't do maths and don't have calculators on their phones.

    https://twitter.com/STVNews/status/1234508512677564418?s=20


    https://twitter.com/STVNews/status/1234508512677564418?s=20

    And we have 16,503 acute beds in the country so that is 26 patients per bed. Which doesn't sound ideal for containing the disease.

    http://www.ournhsscotland.com/65-years/65-facts/current-facts
    Better start setting up the portacabins then hadn't we.
    Yes, or converting schools and gym halls or something. Whilst I remain of the view that these figures are massively pessimistic going on China's experience there is no doubt that we are going to need far more isolation ward capacity. It's not like these 16k beds are in the main suitable for someone with an infectious disease or for that matter currently empty.
    Of course. But as was discussed last week with Foxy, the main capacity constraint is not really equipment, or beds or rooms. It's people. We simply won't have the trained staff and it takes a long time to train them up.

    Hence the news yesterday on calling up retired doctors and nurses. Any brave soul that does come forward to help will be doing their country a great service as these are likely to be individuals at highest risk.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    eadric said:

    eadric said:

    eadric said:

    Credit to Nicola Sturgeon. The first politician to be *almost* completely straight with her voters.

    "We are preparing for a reasonable worst case scenario, where 50-80% of Scots will get coronavirus"


    What she doesn't quite spell out is that this means she is preparing for 4.3 million Scots to get the virus, 86,000 Scots to die, and 430,000 Scots to become critically ill and require hospital treatment.

    Maybe she thinks Scots can't do maths and don't have calculators on their phones.

    https://twitter.com/STVNews/status/1234508512677564418?s=20


    That's still the worse case scenario though eadric.

    You prepare for the worst, you hope for the best.
    Of course. And in fact it is encouraging that the government is up to speed on the real data, not hopecasting, like some others....
    No, you're fearcasting.

    Worst case scenario is not what we expect. Worst case scenario might be that there's a 10% depression next year - but we don't expect that.

    Most people here are talking about what they expect really will or may happen, not the far end of the tail extremely unlikely worst case scenario.
    Sturgeon was at the COBRA meeting. She wouldn't have said this if it wasn't cleared by the government.

    But you carry on in your bubble.

    She actually said this is the REASONABLE worst case scenario. Fearcasting would be giving the extreme worst case scenario. F*ck knows what that is.
    You emphasised the wrong word but that's hardly a shock. "reasonable WORST case scenario".

    The government should prepare for the worst but that doesn't mean they're expecting the worst. If they were expecting that to really happen it'd be the reasonably expected scenario not the reasonably worst case scenario.

    Do you understand the difference?
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    DavidL said:

    The problem with this is that the Labour leadership election is just boring. We already know who won, it just doesn't get announced for several more weeks.

    A bit like last year's Tory leadership election really.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    Which is a lot more than he won with Wales.
    Bit needlessly harsh. How much did any British player of his era win?

    He was a good 'keeper and would probably have been in contention for a place had there been a UK team. I guess he has to take some blame for defeat against Romania in 1994, but equally he very nearly took them to Euro 92 on his performances alone.
    Especially as he won loads with Everton!

    Lionel Messi has hardly set the world alight with Argentina, I don't think that's a stick to beat him with
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556

    Nigelb said:

    matt said:

    Does anything other than the virus situation genuinely really matter at the moment?

    Currently, I honestly couldn't give a crap if Patel shouts and swears at her staff or what the Labour Leadership losers are up to.

    Picard. That show is warming up nicely.
    I watched the first 3 episodes and I had a horrible feeling it was going to do down this very tired episodic route...new episode, new planet kinda of thing.
    It’s sh1t. Fanboys* only.

    *let’s be honest, it is boys only.
    Its very woke.
    It's VERY slow. Picks up a bit after the first few episodes, so it might be worth skipping them.
    I liked the first 3 episodes, I like slow...my fear was exactly what you say that "it picks up"...this week we are on planet A, next week planet B, etc.
    It's been a bit disappointing so far, despite a good start and some nice moments - its dramatic universe is centred on feelings and mysticism and obvious politics in a way that the original series ... wasn't. It may just be the result of his age, but for the first time I feel like I'm watching Patrick Stewart playing Captain Picard, whereas before the two were completely indistinguishable.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,225
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    justin124 said:

    DavidL said:

    The problem with this is that the Labour leadership election is just boring. We already know who won, it just doesn't get announced for several more weeks.

    A bit like last year's Tory leadership election really.
    You're kidding?! According to this site, the eventual winner should have been about 100/1. He was the only runner not tipped!!!
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,744
    justin124 said:

    DavidL said:

    The problem with this is that the Labour leadership election is just boring. We already know who won, it just doesn't get announced for several more weeks.

    A bit like last year's Tory leadership election really.
    Yes - but it took a lot less time to get there. It took less time for the Tories to elect and install a new leader than for Labour to even get to the start of the members' vote (taking the same starting point of the opening of nominations from MPs).
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226

    What was illiberal about any of what I wrote? One could argue that tracking and tracing isn't very libertarian - but I'm a libertarian not an anarchist. I don't believe in no state whatsoever.

    Or are you denying that this countries hygiene, handwashing etc that I listed are not better than average across the world? Do we in your eyes have the same nourishment as sub-Saharan Africans? We're a very well off country and should appreciate what we have - billions across the world would love what we can afford to take for granted.

    Don't take what we have for granted.

    You seemed to be succumbing to that sense of British exceptionalism - "We are not like other peoples and nations" - which underpins so much of where we go wrong when we do.

    But, OK, if all you mean is we should count our material blessings compared to, say, Iran, then that is perfectly fine and not at all a problem. Indeed I wholeheartedly agree.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,838
    edited March 2020

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    eadric said:

    Credit to Nicola Sturgeon. The first politician to be *almost* completely straight with her voters.

    "We are preparing for a reasonable worst case scenario, where 50-80% of Scots will get coronavirus"


    What she doesn't quite spell out is that this means she is preparing for 4.3 million Scots to get the virus, 86,000 Scots to die, and 430,000 Scots to become critically ill and require hospital treatment.

    Maybe she thinks Scots can't do maths and don't have calculators on their phones.

    https://twitter.com/STVNews/status/1234508512677564418?s=20


    https://twitter.com/STVNews/status/1234508512677564418?s=20

    And we have 16,503 acute beds in the country so that is 26 patients per bed. Which doesn't sound ideal for containing the disease.

    http://www.ournhsscotland.com/65-years/65-facts/current-facts
    Better start setting up the portacabins then hadn't we.
    Yes, or converting schools and gym halls or something. Whilst I remain of the view that these figures are massively pessimistic going on China's experience there is no doubt that we are going to need far more isolation ward capacity. It's not like these 16k beds are in the main suitable for someone with an infectious disease or for that matter currently empty.
    Of course. But as was discussed last week with Foxy, the main capacity constraint is not really equipment, or beds or rooms. It's people. We simply won't have the trained staff and it takes a long time to train them up.

    Hence the news yesterday on calling up retired doctors and nurses. Any brave soul that does come forward to help will be doing their country a great service as these are likely to be individuals at highest risk.
    Surely the retired doctors/nurses/older scurrent staff should be dealing with anything but coronavirus, with the under 50 year old (ish) current staff covering all coronavirus?

    Partly to save lives of the medical staff but also makes it far more likely to get them to come back to work.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,744

    Does anything other than the virus situation genuinely really matter at the moment?

    Currently, I honestly couldn't give a crap if Patel shouts and swears at her staff or what the Leadership losers are up to.

    If Boris loses Patel he will create a big full-fat rival for himself.

    Every time he backslides on his agenda it will be said that Priti would not do that. Priti dared to go against the civil service elite whose tune he is dancing to. Boris is weak where Priti is strong.

    Not necessarily true, of course, but it will be said nonetheless
    Not to mention that Boris already has several full-fat rivals to himself on the backbenches, on the sensible wing of the Party.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,862
    eadric said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    eadric said:

    Credit to Nicola Sturgeon. The first politician to be *almost* completely straight with her voters.

    "We are preparing for a reasonable worst case scenario, where 50-80% of Scots will get coronavirus"


    What she doesn't quite spell out is that this means she is preparing for 4.3 million Scots to get the virus, 86,000 Scots to die, and 430,000 Scots to become critically ill and require hospital treatment.

    Maybe she thinks Scots can't do maths and don't have calculators on their phones.

    https://twitter.com/STVNews/status/1234508512677564418?s=20


    https://twitter.com/STVNews/status/1234508512677564418?s=20

    And we have 16,503 acute beds in the country so that is 26 patients per bed. Which doesn't sound ideal for containing the disease.

    http://www.ournhsscotland.com/65-years/65-facts/current-facts
    Better start setting up the portacabins then hadn't we.
    Yes, or converting schools and gym halls or something. Whilst I remain of the view that these figures are massively pessimistic going on China's experience there is no doubt that we are going to need far more isolation ward capacity. It's not like these 16k beds are in the main suitable for someone with an infectious disease or for that matter currently empty.
    Do we believe Chinese data? It's difficult, given that their first reaction was arrest the doctors sounding the alarm, but let's say you are right.

    China only managed its heroic achievement by putting an entire province (55m people) in quarantine, and the inhabitants into a total lockdown, where they welded people into their homes.

    Can Scotland do that? It might have to.
    There are aspects of the Chinese data that looks extremely suspect. For example several precincts in close proximity to Hubei claim to have 1200+ cases and 1 death. Just vanishingly unlikely. All of today's reported deaths are in Hubei. Really?

    Whilst I am willing to believe containment works up to a point the rate at which they are reducing the number of new cases seems, well, remarkable. Today they are claiming that the whole of China has 202 new cases.

    I don't have any alternative data and am very reluctant to give much credence to some unvouched hysteria on the internet but the short answer is no, I don't.
  • GideonWiseGideonWise Posts: 1,123
    eadric said:

    eadric said:

    eadric said:

    eadric said:

    Credit to Nicola Sturgeon. The first politician to be *almost* completely straight with her voters.

    "We are preparing for a reasonable worst case scenario, where 50-80% of Scots will get coronavirus"


    What she doesn't quite spell out is that this means she is preparing for 4.3 million Scots to get the virus, 86,000 Scots to die, and 430,000 Scots to become critically ill and require hospital treatment.

    Maybe she thinks Scots can't do maths and don't have calculators on their phones.

    https://twitter.com/STVNews/status/1234508512677564418?s=20


    That's still the worse case scenario though eadric.

    You prepare for the worst, you hope for the best.
    Of course. And in fact it is encouraging that the government is up to speed on the real data, not hopecasting, like some others....
    No, you're fearcasting.

    Worst case scenario is not what we expect. Worst case scenario might be that there's a 10% depression next year - but we don't expect that.

    Most people here are talking about what they expect really will or may happen, not the far end of the tail extremely unlikely worst case scenario.
    Sturgeon was at the COBRA meeting. She wouldn't have said this if it wasn't cleared by the government.

    But you carry on in your bubble.

    She actually said this is the REASONABLE worst case scenario. Fearcasting would be giving the extreme worst case scenario. F*ck knows what that is.
    You emphasised the wrong word but that's hardly a shock. "reasonable WORST case scenario".

    The government should prepare for the worst but that doesn't mean they're expecting the worst. If they were expecting that to really happen it'd be the reasonably expected scenario not the reasonably worst case scenario.

    Do you understand the difference?
    Why do you think Nicola said it? Perhaps it's to win votes.
    More likely, it's to distract from the SNP court case. Obvs.

  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264

    From Beeb:
    'A unique virus' - WHO chief
    The head of the World Health Organization (WHO), Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, says the new coronavirus "is a unique virus with unique features".

    "This virus is not influenza. We have never before seen a pathogen that can transfer between individuals [so easily]."

    "Containment of Covid-19 must remain the top priority for all countries," he says, adding that governments have "no choice but to act now".

  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    justin124 said:

    DavidL said:

    The problem with this is that the Labour leadership election is just boring. We already know who won, it just doesn't get announced for several more weeks.

    A bit like last year's Tory leadership election really.
    Yes - but it took a lot less time to get there. It took less time for the Tories to elect and install a new leader than for Labour to even get to the start of the members' vote (taking the same starting point of the opening of nominations from MPs).
    It took them a couple of months. The last Tory leadership election in opposition actually took longer - Howard announced he was stepping down early in May 2005 with Cameron not being elected until December.
  • GideonWiseGideonWise Posts: 1,123

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    eadric said:

    Credit to Nicola Sturgeon. The first politician to be *almost* completely straight with her voters.

    "We are preparing for a reasonable worst case scenario, where 50-80% of Scots will get coronavirus"


    What she doesn't quite spell out is that this means she is preparing for 4.3 million Scots to get the virus, 86,000 Scots to die, and 430,000 Scots to become critically ill and require hospital treatment.

    Maybe she thinks Scots can't do maths and don't have calculators on their phones.

    https://twitter.com/STVNews/status/1234508512677564418?s=20


    https://twitter.com/STVNews/status/1234508512677564418?s=20

    And we have 16,503 acute beds in the country so that is 26 patients per bed. Which doesn't sound ideal for containing the disease.

    http://www.ournhsscotland.com/65-years/65-facts/current-facts
    Better start setting up the portacabins then hadn't we.
    Yes, or converting schools and gym halls or something. Whilst I remain of the view that these figures are massively pessimistic going on China's experience there is no doubt that we are going to need far more isolation ward capacity. It's not like these 16k beds are in the main suitable for someone with an infectious disease or for that matter currently empty.
    Of course. But as was discussed last week with Foxy, the main capacity constraint is not really equipment, or beds or rooms. It's people. We simply won't have the trained staff and it takes a long time to train them up.

    Hence the news yesterday on calling up retired doctors and nurses. Any brave soul that does come forward to help will be doing their country a great service as these are likely to be individuals at highest risk.
    Surely the retired doctors/nurses/older scurrent staff should be dealing with anything but coronavirus, with the under 50 year old (ish) current staff covering all coronavirus?

    Partly to save lives of the medical staff but also makes it far more likely to get them to come back to work.
    Yes you are probably right on that. They will still be at heightened risk working in a hospital though.

    But we will have another generation of heroes we can celebrate. God bless them.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,862
    justin124 said:

    DavidL said:

    The problem with this is that the Labour leadership election is just boring. We already know who won, it just doesn't get announced for several more weeks.

    A bit like last year's Tory leadership election really.
    Exactly the same. And, as with Boris Starmer is really going out of his way not to say anything interesting or which might cause someone to have second thoughts before these votes are finally counted. So we have an opposition vacuum. Better than a government vacuum admittedly but a long way from ideal.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    Looks like BF has settled Iowa at last
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,678
    edited March 2020

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    eadric said:

    Credit to Nicola Sturgeon. The first politician to be *almost* completely straight with her voters.

    "We are preparing for a reasonable worst case scenario, where 50-80% of Scots will get coronavirus"


    What she doesn't quite spell out is that this means she is preparing for 4.3 million Scots to get the virus, 86,000 Scots to die, and 430,000 Scots to become critically ill and require hospital treatment.

    Maybe she thinks Scots can't do maths and don't have calculators on their phones.

    https://twitter.com/STVNews/status/1234508512677564418?s=20


    https://twitter.com/STVNews/status/1234508512677564418?s=20

    And we have 16,503 acute beds in the country so that is 26 patients per bed. Which doesn't sound ideal for containing the disease.

    http://www.ournhsscotland.com/65-years/65-facts/current-facts
    Better start setting up the portacabins then hadn't we.
    Yes, or converting schools and gym halls or something. Whilst I remain of the view that these figures are massively pessimistic going on China's experience there is no doubt that we are going to need far more isolation ward capacity. It's not like these 16k beds are in the main suitable for someone with an infectious disease or for that matter currently empty.
    Of course. But as was discussed last week with Foxy, the main capacity constraint is not really equipment, or beds or rooms. It's people. We simply won't have the trained staff and it takes a long time to train them up.

    Hence the news yesterday on calling up retired doctors and nurses. Any brave soul that does come forward to help will be doing their country a great service as these are likely to be individuals at highest risk.
    Surely the retired doctors/nurses/older scurrent staff should be dealing with anything but coronavirus, with the under 50 year old (ish) current staff covering all coronavirus?

    Partly to save lives of the medical staff but also makes it far more likely to get them to come back to work.
    Start using medical students instead of Dad’s Army.

    #YouKnowItMakesSense #SonOfARetiredDoctorTalking
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,601
    Just checked the John Hopkins page and it's encouraging to see that the figures haven't changed much since yesterday.

    https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    eadric said:

    DavidL said:

    eadric said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    eadric said:

    Credit to Nicola Sturgeon. The first politician to be *almost* completely straight with her voters.

    "We are preparing for a reasonable worst case scenario, where 50-80% of Scots will get coronavirus"


    What she doesn't quite spell out is that this means she is preparing for 4.3 million Scots to get the virus, 86,000 Scots to die, and 430,000 Scots to become critically ill and require hospital treatment.

    Maybe she thinks Scots can't do maths and don't have calculators on their phones.

    https://twitter.com/STVNews/status/1234508512677564418?s=20


    https://twitter.com/STVNews/status/1234508512677564418?s=20

    And we have 16,503 acute beds in the country so that is 26 patients per bed. Which doesn't sound ideal for containing the disease.

    http://www.ournhsscotland.com/65-years/65-facts/current-facts
    Better start setting up the portacabins then hadn't we.
    Yes, or converting schools and gym halls or something. Whilst I remain of the view that these figures are massively pessimistic going on China's experience there is no doubt that we are going to need far more isolation ward capacity. It's not like these 16k beds are in the main suitable for someone with an infectious disease or for that matter currently empty.
    Do we believe Chinese data? It's difficult, given that their first reaction was arrest the doctors sounding the alarm, but let's say you are right.

    China only managed its heroic achievement by putting an entire province (55m people) in quarantine, and the inhabitants into a total lockdown, where they welded people into their homes.

    Can Scotland do that? It might have to.
    There are aspects of the Chinese data that looks extremely suspect. For example several precincts in close proximity to Hubei claim to have 1200+ cases and 1 death. Just vanishingly unlikely. All of today's reported deaths are in Hubei. Really?

    Whilst I am willing to believe containment works up to a point the rate at which they are reducing the number of new cases seems, well, remarkable. Today they are claiming that the whole of China has 202 new cases.

    I don't have any alternative data and am very reluctant to give much credence to some unvouched hysteria on the internet but the short answer is no, I don't.
    Yes, that's what I've thought all along. China is lying, in a desperate bid to get the economy restarted. It likely won't work.
    Giant sprawling totalitarian states do not behave like liberal democracies....who knew?

    Most of the commentariat, it seems.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119



    Giant sprawling totalitarian states do not behave like liberal democracies....who knew?

    Most of the commentariat, it seems.

    China transferred detained Uighurs to factories used by global brands

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/01/china-transferred-detained-uighurs-to-factories-used-by-global-brands-report

  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,744
    I was present for Neville Southall's last professional match, for Bradford City against some pub team from Beeston, as an emergency replacement - he was keeping coach at the time - after a comical set of circumstances left all the club keepers injured or unavailable. He was probably weighing in at about 18st at the time. Still pulled off one very good save.
  • GideonWiseGideonWise Posts: 1,123

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    eadric said:

    Credit to Nicola Sturgeon. The first politician to be *almost* completely straight with her voters.

    "We are preparing for a reasonable worst case scenario, where 50-80% of Scots will get coronavirus"


    What she doesn't quite spell out is that this means she is preparing for 4.3 million Scots to get the virus, 86,000 Scots to die, and 430,000 Scots to become critically ill and require hospital treatment.

    Maybe she thinks Scots can't do maths and don't have calculators on their phones.

    https://twitter.com/STVNews/status/1234508512677564418?s=20


    https://twitter.com/STVNews/status/1234508512677564418?s=20

    And we have 16,503 acute beds in the country so that is 26 patients per bed. Which doesn't sound ideal for containing the disease.

    http://www.ournhsscotland.com/65-years/65-facts/current-facts
    Better start setting up the portacabins then hadn't we.
    Yes, or converting schools and gym halls or something. Whilst I remain of the view that these figures are massively pessimistic going on China's experience there is no doubt that we are going to need far more isolation ward capacity. It's not like these 16k beds are in the main suitable for someone with an infectious disease or for that matter currently empty.
    Of course. But as was discussed last week with Foxy, the main capacity constraint is not really equipment, or beds or rooms. It's people. We simply won't have the trained staff and it takes a long time to train them up.

    Hence the news yesterday on calling up retired doctors and nurses. Any brave soul that does come forward to help will be doing their country a great service as these are likely to be individuals at highest risk.
    Surely the retired doctors/nurses/older scurrent staff should be dealing with anything but coronavirus, with the under 50 year old (ish) current staff covering all coronavirus?

    Partly to save lives of the medical staff but also makes it far more likely to get them to come back to work.
    Start using medical students instead of Dad’s Army.
    There is a good chance we will need to start thinking a bit more creatively.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    edited March 2020
    So it was all fake news by the Guardian, making a big play of it to do with Boris losing an argument against her in a debate.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,862

    eadric said:

    eadric said:

    eadric said:

    eadric said:

    Credit to Nicola Sturgeon. The first politician to be *almost* completely straight with her voters.

    "We are preparing for a reasonable worst case scenario, where 50-80% of Scots will get coronavirus"


    What she doesn't quite spell out is that this means she is preparing for 4.3 million Scots to get the virus, 86,000 Scots to die, and 430,000 Scots to become critically ill and require hospital treatment.

    Maybe she thinks Scots can't do maths and don't have calculators on their phones.

    https://twitter.com/STVNews/status/1234508512677564418?s=20


    That's still the worse case scenario though eadric.

    You prepare for the worst, you hope for the best.
    Of course. And in fact it is encouraging that the government is up to speed on the real data, not hopecasting, like some others....
    No, you're fearcasting.

    Worst case scenario is not what we expect. Worst case scenario might be that there's a 10% depression next year - but we don't expect that.

    Most people here are talking about what they expect really will or may happen, not the far end of the tail extremely unlikely worst case scenario.
    Sturgeon was at the COBRA meeting. She wouldn't have said this if it wasn't cleared by the government.

    But you carry on in your bubble.

    She actually said this is the REASONABLE worst case scenario. Fearcasting would be giving the extreme worst case scenario. F*ck knows what that is.
    You emphasised the wrong word but that's hardly a shock. "reasonable WORST case scenario".

    The government should prepare for the worst but that doesn't mean they're expecting the worst. If they were expecting that to really happen it'd be the reasonably expected scenario not the reasonably worst case scenario.

    Do you understand the difference?
    Why do you think Nicola said it? Perhaps it's to win votes.
    More likely, it's to distract from the SNP court case. Obvs.

    I've probably kept this quiet but I am not a fan of independence or the SNP. But Nicola has always struck me as someone with a real sense of responsibility and duty. I think she feels the public have a right to know.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,218

    The Dow Jones has rallied 500 points in trading so far this morning

    President Trump is so obsessed with the level of the Dow Jones, that I would not be surprised to see the US government printing money to invest in stocks to keep prices up*.

    * This is unlikely to end well.
  • GideonWiseGideonWise Posts: 1,123
    DavidL said:

    eadric said:

    eadric said:

    eadric said:

    eadric said:

    Credit to Nicola Sturgeon. The first politician to be *almost* completely straight with her voters.

    "We are preparing for a reasonable worst case scenario, where 50-80% of Scots will get coronavirus"


    What she doesn't quite spell out is that this means she is preparing for 4.3 million Scots to get the virus, 86,000 Scots to die, and 430,000 Scots to become critically ill and require hospital treatment.

    Maybe she thinks Scots can't do maths and don't have calculators on their phones.

    https://twitter.com/STVNews/status/1234508512677564418?s=20


    That's still the worse case scenario though eadric.

    You prepare for the worst, you hope for the best.
    Of course. And in fact it is encouraging that the government is up to speed on the real data, not hopecasting, like some others....
    No, you're fearcasting.

    Worst case scenario is not what we expect. Worst case scenario might be that there's a 10% depression next year - but we don't expect that.

    Most people here are talking about what they expect really will or may happen, not the far end of the tail extremely unlikely worst case scenario.
    Sturgeon was at the COBRA meeting. She wouldn't have said this if it wasn't cleared by the government.

    But you carry on in your bubble.

    She actually said this is the REASONABLE worst case scenario. Fearcasting would be giving the extreme worst case scenario. F*ck knows what that is.
    You emphasised the wrong word but that's hardly a shock. "reasonable WORST case scenario".

    The government should prepare for the worst but that doesn't mean they're expecting the worst. If they were expecting that to really happen it'd be the reasonably expected scenario not the reasonably worst case scenario.

    Do you understand the difference?
    Why do you think Nicola said it? Perhaps it's to win votes.
    More likely, it's to distract from the SNP court case. Obvs.

    I've probably kept this quiet but I am not a fan of independence or the SNP. But Nicola has always struck me as someone with a real sense of responsibility and duty. I think she feels the public have a right to know.
    I was being facetious. Black humour is helping me today. Apologies.
  • DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    eadric said:

    Credit to Nicola Sturgeon. The first politician to be *almost* completely straight with her voters.

    "We are preparing for a reasonable worst case scenario, where 50-80% of Scots will get coronavirus"


    What she doesn't quite spell out is that this means she is preparing for 4.3 million Scots to get the virus, 86,000 Scots to die, and 430,000 Scots to become critically ill and require hospital treatment.

    Maybe she thinks Scots can't do maths and don't have calculators on their phones.

    https://twitter.com/STVNews/status/1234508512677564418?s=20


    https://twitter.com/STVNews/status/1234508512677564418?s=20

    And we have 16,503 acute beds in the country so that is 26 patients per bed. Which doesn't sound ideal for containing the disease.

    http://www.ournhsscotland.com/65-years/65-facts/current-facts
    Better start setting up the portacabins then hadn't we.
    Yes, or converting schools and gym halls or something. Whilst I remain of the view that these figures are massively pessimistic going on China's experience there is no doubt that we are going to need far more isolation ward capacity. It's not like these 16k beds are in the main suitable for someone with an infectious disease or for that matter currently empty.
    Of course. But as was discussed last week with Foxy, the main capacity constraint is not really equipment, or beds or rooms. It's people. We simply won't have the trained staff and it takes a long time to train them up.

    Hence the news yesterday on calling up retired doctors and nurses. Any brave soul that does come forward to help will be doing their country a great service as these are likely to be individuals at highest risk.
    Surely the retired doctors/nurses/older scurrent staff should be dealing with anything but coronavirus, with the under 50 year old (ish) current staff covering all coronavirus?

    Partly to save lives of the medical staff but also makes it far more likely to get them to come back to work.
    Start using medical students instead of Dad’s Army.
    There is a good chance we will need to start thinking a bit more creatively.
    So my mother might finally get her wish that her son becomes a medical doctor.

    I’m confident I have the transferable skills to do so.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,225
    I think we ought also to make clear that Boris is innocent only in this matter. :smile:

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,767
    Stocky said:

    Looks like BF has settled Iowa at last

    Yep. At last. That's friday's curry paid for.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    geoffw said:

    Chameleon said:

    I think I preferred the other thread!

    Here's some useful data then (apologies if someone has already posted it)
    https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
    https://hgis.uw.edu/virus/

    I find that one far more useful, as it gives you an idea of each individual country's timeline of finding cases.
    Can't see such timelines.
    Click on a country, and the graph on the left will change to only that country.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,744
    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    DavidL said:

    The problem with this is that the Labour leadership election is just boring. We already know who won, it just doesn't get announced for several more weeks.

    A bit like last year's Tory leadership election really.
    Yes - but it took a lot less time to get there. It took less time for the Tories to elect and install a new leader than for Labour to even get to the start of the members' vote (taking the same starting point of the opening of nominations from MPs).
    It took them a couple of months. The last Tory leadership election in opposition actually took longer - Howard announced he was stepping down early in May 2005 with Cameron not being elected until December.
    It depends on what you take as the starting point. Although Howard pre-announced his resignation, he didn't actually resign until October.

    On that basis, the Labour election when Brown won began before the 2005GE, when Blair said he wouldn't serve a full third term.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited March 2020

    So it was all fake news by the Guardian, making a big play of it to do with Boris losing an argument against her in a debate.
    To be fair, the original Guardian article linked to said it was not Boris' decision, though the headline made it seem as if the current occupant of No10 was responsible (which is probably why it was linked to!)





  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,767
    Chameleon said:


    From Beeb:
    'A unique virus' - WHO chief
    The head of the World Health Organization (WHO), Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, says the new coronavirus "is a unique virus with unique features".

    "This virus is not influenza. We have never before seen a pathogen that can transfer between individuals [so easily]."

    "Containment of Covid-19 must remain the top priority for all countries," he says, adding that governments have "no choice but to act now".

    "We have never before seen a pathogen that can transfer between individuals [so easily]"

    Christ. Big trouble.
  • GideonWiseGideonWise Posts: 1,123

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    eadric said:

    Credit to Nicola Sturgeon. The first politician to be *almost* completely straight with her voters.

    "We are preparing for a reasonable worst case scenario, where 50-80% of Scots will get coronavirus"


    What she doesn't quite spell out is that this means she is preparing for 4.3 million Scots to get the virus, 86,000 Scots to die, and 430,000 Scots to become critically ill and require hospital treatment.

    Maybe she thinks Scots can't do maths and don't have calculators on their phones.

    https://twitter.com/STVNews/status/1234508512677564418?s=20


    https://twitter.com/STVNews/status/1234508512677564418?s=20

    And we have 16,503 acute beds in the country so that is 26 patients per bed. Which doesn't sound ideal for containing the disease.

    http://www.ournhsscotland.com/65-years/65-facts/current-facts
    Better start setting up the portacabins then hadn't we.
    Yes, or converting schools and gym halls or something. Whilst I remain of the view that these figures are massively pessimistic going on China's experience there is no doubt that we are going to need far more isolation ward capacity. It's not like these 16k beds are in the main suitable for someone with an infectious disease or for that matter currently empty.
    Of course. But as was discussed last week with Foxy, the main capacity constraint is not really equipment, or beds or rooms. It's people. We simply won't have the trained staff and it takes a long time to train them up.

    Hence the news yesterday on calling up retired doctors and nurses. Any brave soul that does come forward to help will be doing their country a great service as these are likely to be individuals at highest risk.
    Surely the retired doctors/nurses/older scurrent staff should be dealing with anything but coronavirus, with the under 50 year old (ish) current staff covering all coronavirus?

    Partly to save lives of the medical staff but also makes it far more likely to get them to come back to work.
    Start using medical students instead of Dad’s Army.
    There is a good chance we will need to start thinking a bit more creatively.
    So my mother might finally get her wish that her son becomes a medical doctor.

    I’m confident I have the transferable skills to do so.
    You'd be an asset for sure. But I'm thinking more creatively still. How about an army of sprogs, given the age-adjusted risk profiles.

    What about a national fast-track program for Under 11s footy teams?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,464

    Chameleon said:


    From Beeb:
    'A unique virus' - WHO chief
    The head of the World Health Organization (WHO), Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, says the new coronavirus "is a unique virus with unique features".

    "This virus is not influenza. We have never before seen a pathogen that can transfer between individuals [so easily]."

    "Containment of Covid-19 must remain the top priority for all countries," he says, adding that governments have "no choice but to act now".

    "We have never before seen a pathogen that can transfer between individuals [so easily]"

    Christ. Big trouble.
    We've just been offered tickets for a theatre trip. Coach from N Essex+Theatre. As we're both in the risk categories (age plus respiratory problem) Mrs C is doubtful
    I'm for going!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    isam said:

    So it was all fake news by the Guardian, making a big play of it to do with Boris losing an argument against her in a debate.
    To be fair, the original Guardian article linked to said it was not Boris' decision, though the headline made it seem as if the current occupant of No10 was responsible (which is probably why it was linked to!)





    I might be misremembering but didn't the original article say something more vague like "the decision was taken last year", and then there was a whole big bit about Boris being bested in a debate...nudge nudge wink wink.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    kinabalu said:

    What was illiberal about any of what I wrote? One could argue that tracking and tracing isn't very libertarian - but I'm a libertarian not an anarchist. I don't believe in no state whatsoever.

    Or are you denying that this countries hygiene, handwashing etc that I listed are not better than average across the world? Do we in your eyes have the same nourishment as sub-Saharan Africans? We're a very well off country and should appreciate what we have - billions across the world would love what we can afford to take for granted.

    Don't take what we have for granted.

    You seemed to be succumbing to that sense of British exceptionalism - "We are not like other peoples and nations" - which underpins so much of where we go wrong when we do.

    But, OK, if all you mean is we should count our material blessings compared to, say, Iran, then that is perfectly fine and not at all a problem. Indeed I wholeheartedly agree.
    Indeed. We are exceptional, we're not average and we should be thankful for that, we are lucky to live in one of the best off nations in the world. Almost every nation is to their own extent exceptional whether for good or ill, it is our exceptions that make us unique. Some of those exceptions are good and some will not be.

    One other area where we are fortunate is being an island nation without a land border. That means we are more capable than most other nations of tracking people who have recently entered the country, which nations with an unmanned land border aren't able to do.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264

    Chameleon said:


    From Beeb:
    'A unique virus' - WHO chief
    The head of the World Health Organization (WHO), Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, says the new coronavirus "is a unique virus with unique features".

    "This virus is not influenza. We have never before seen a pathogen that can transfer between individuals [so easily]."

    "Containment of Covid-19 must remain the top priority for all countries," he says, adding that governments have "no choice but to act now".

    "We have never before seen a pathogen that can transfer between individuals [so easily]"

    Christ. Big trouble.
    Indeed. There seems to be a big general pattern of experts getting increasingly flappy and worried the more they find out. See the CDC presser where they advised everyone to stock up.
This discussion has been closed.