politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Almost all the front pages are about the virus

matt said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

noneoftheabove said:

OldKingCole said:

Slackbladder said:

Slackbladder said:

GideonWise said:

I'm just reading about the attempted quarantine in the hotel in Tenerife. Christ almighty.

Thickness and selfishness will be the undoing of us all.

Got a link to any reports?

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8050471/Frightened-British-mother-coronavirus-hotel.html

Found it.

Another woman, quoted in the Mail, was on Breakfast Time this morning. Similar report.
However, why is anyone there with children? Surely they should be at school. I'd be surprised if, at 45, she had two children under school age.

Was half term last week in many places, might well be some where its a week later?

Most private schools close for 14 days

Not in the Spring (or Summer) HT’s. Correct for Autumn.

Thanks for your correction.

Oh for god's sake. Are we totally incapable of getting anything done in this country ever? https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51658693

Cyclefree said:

isam said:

Cyclefree said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Cyclefree said:

AlastairMeeks said:

The same might also be said of Brexiteers who are intent on a very hard Brexit indeed on the basis of a 52/48 referendum victory. That is no way to build any sort of lasting consensus or settlement. Grinding your opponents’ faces in the dust never turns out well.

Oh I don't approve of gratuitous rudeness towards people whose views you do not share. I'm afraid, however, that is a normal part of everyday life and it is odd that the snowflake Brexiteers want both to be able to trumpet their opinions and then not be judged for them (though I'm sure they would be happy to be judged approvingly).

It betrays an intellectual cringe on their part, a subconscious recognition that the people whose opinions they esteem disdain their views. They should ask themselves why they esteem the opinions of those people and if they still want their esteem, why those people disdain their views.

Agreed. I do think, though, that those who feel the country is going in the wrong direction need to learn from their mistakes and fight for what they want. I am not prepared to let my country go down the wrong path, even if there is little in practice I can do. But intelligent thought and self-reflection, particularly if it leads to better ideas from those who can, are worth it.

If the “Remainers” (to use a short-hand) do not do the hard thinking about what sort of a society they want for the future and how to get it, they will keep on losing the battle of ideas, policies and elections.

Brexiteers were the people for who the country was going in a direction they strongly disapproved of pre June 2016, when it was just as much a ‘fact’ that the country was going to hell in a handcart, ie not a fact, but an opinion some of them held, as the more extreme Remainers do now.

True. That’s politics. But when the wind changes those who want a different direction need to have done the hard thinking about what they do want and how to get there. Not simply sulked. Now is the time for those not in power to do that hard thinking.

Yes. I think the mistake the opposition are about to make is to argue against the Highbrow Tory ‘We don’t like certain aspects of clauses in EU legislature that inhibit our ability to trade with Buenos Aries’ version of Leave, when the only reason Leave won and Labour got thrashed is FOM. In short, they’re overthinking it in order to stay on their safe space and avoid having to do something major about immigration

IanB2 said:

HYUFD said:

IanB2 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

logical_song said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Beibheirli_C said:

OldKingCole said:

Just had a Guardian (I know) newsflash that the Govt will consider walking away from the Brexit transition talks in June

They might as well. The timetable is near impossible. But we all knew that back in December when the Blond Buffoon said "No Extensions".

Just grandstanding from Boris. He'll capitulate, but he knows his base will swallow it if he's able to paint the right picture in advance.

I don't think he will.

Of course he won't. The notion he will is only coming from those who didn't believe in Brexit in the first place and don't see the point of it.

I think it is going to come as a big shock to the EU and those who want to remain that on this Boris will not be moved

It is amazing that the EU cannot see, or just does not want to see, that this is not the TM government but a brexit government with an 80 seat majority and of course this is happening in the first year of a five year HOC allowing Boris the political leeway to ride out any storm

I'm afraid you're missing the point.
A No Deal Brexit will be worse for the UK than for the EU.
No matter how strong willed Boris is the EU will make the best possible decisions for the EU 27 countries. They won't cut off their nose to spite their face but if Boris won't compromise neither will they bend over backwards to help him.
Sorry for the mixed metaphors.

And so it becomes the Australian deal announced in early June to give exporters time to adjust for 1st January

I cannot see Boris, Cummings or the government shifting on this

Did you ever explain why no deal last year was so terrible that you were about to leave the Conservative party and never vote for them again, but no deal this year doesn't seem to concern you that much at all?

We have a Deal, the Withdrawal Agreement, the question is just whether we trade with the EU on Canada terms or Australia terms

The "deal" simply postpones the damage Mr G was up in arms about from this year to next year.

We have no way of knowing how much economic damage brexit will cause for some years to come

Selebian said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Cyclefree said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1232979671245099008

Most likely but the government now call it trading an Australian terms with the EU, not no deal

They are the same thing. If there is no deal, that is what it is. Let the government t be honest, for once. Their lies will catch up them in the end.

I am not sure how many have noticed but no deal has recently been rebranded to an Australian deal and references to no deal banned

It is very naughty but this is politics

The opposition should perhaps start calling it the "trading on Afghan* terms" option

*or insert other less developed (but WTO member) country less appealing than Australia as a potential role model

Worse than Afghanistan as EBA covers Afghanistan.

No Deal is obviously damaging, but to be fair a planned No Deal with 10 months notice is better than a chaotic one at next to no notice as seemed likely last autumn.

The WDA guarantees the rights of citizens, the continuing divorce payments to Brussels and a border in the Irish Sea rather than one on land, so less of a breach than No Deal without WDA.

I don't think that it will be good for our economy at all, but we probably need to hit the bottom before rationality is restored as a nation.

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/lewisptyler/status/1232718180948291585?s=21

I really have to play this year as my last innings, in 2016, was a golden duck. That would be no way to finish.

eadric said:

Calamitous decision on Heathrow. Boris is a nonce.

Agreed. The major - and I mean major - British infrastructure project of post-Brexit Britain has vanished in a puff of smoke. Incredible. Boris must resign.

https://twitter.com/George_Osborne/status/1232979232038555648?s=20

DavidL said:

Oh for god's sake. Are we totally incapable of getting anything done in this country ever? https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51658693

This is what happens when your country is a lawyerocracy.

We have been advised that we can say "No Thanks" to any overseas business trips for the time being.

Sadly that policy does not extend to Middlesbrough.

isam said:

Cyclefree said:

isam said:

Cyclefree said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Cyclefree said:

AlastairMeeks said:

It betrays an intellectual cringe on their part, a subconscious recognition that the people whose opinions they esteem disdain their views. They should ask themselves why they esteem the opinions of those people and if they still want their esteem, why those people disdain their views.

Agreed. I do think, though, that those who feel the country is going in the wrong direction need to learn from their mistakes and fight for what they want. I am not prepared to let my country go down the wrong path, even if there is little in practice I can do. But intelligent thought and self-reflection, particularly if it leads to better ideas from those who can, are worth it.

If the “Remainers” (to use a short-hand) do not do the hard thinking about what sort of a society they want for the future and how to get it, they will keep on losing the battle of ideas, policies and elections.

Brexiteers were the people for who the country was going in a direction they strongly disapproved of pre June 2016, when it was just as much a ‘fact’ that the country was going to hell in a handcart, ie not a fact, but an opinion some of them held, as the more extreme Remainers do now.

True. That’s politics. But when the wind changes those who want a different direction need to have done the hard thinking about what they do want and how to get there. Not simply sulked. Now is the time for those not in power to do that hard thinking.

Yes. I think the mistake the opposition are about to make is to argue against the Highbrow Tory ‘We don’t like certain aspects of clauses in EU legislature that inhibit our ability to trade with Buenos Aries’ version of Leave, when the only reason Leave won and Labour got thrashed is FOM. In short, they’re overthinking it in order to stay on their safe space and avoid having to do something major about immigration

Yes - a fair point. It will depend on how the new immigration policy works out in practice. Who - and from where - will immigrants now be coming? And what will the social, economic and cultural effects of this be? I think there are some quite significant dangers for the Tories in relation to their policy for their own supporters. But we will need to see. The opposition might be wise to wait and see before committing themselves to anything.

SandyRentool said:

We have been advised that we can say "No Thanks" to any overseas business trips for the time being.

Sadly that policy does not extend to Middlesbrough.

What's the difference between an overseas business trip and a UK one. What makes a airport / plane different from an train station / train.

https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1232986170604376065

Boris's government is falling apart.

Stereotomy said:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-the-race-looks-like-if-biden-wins-or-doesnt-win-south-carolina/

Good article on the effect of the South Carolina outcome on the rest of the race. Or at least I think it's good because it comports with what I already believed. Specifically:

- Biden is the substantial- but not overwhelming- favourite to win SC
- A win for Sanders in SC pretty much sews up the race
- A loss for Sanders in SC leaves Sanders in the lead but significantly complicates things for him, and likely puts him within the range where it's plausible that he could enter the convention with a plurality but not end up getting the nomination
- Biden is the biggest barrier to a Sanders win, not Bloomberg, Buttigieg or Klobuchar. That's because of all the moderates he's the only one who's really drawing away a lot of potential Sanders support. Also, if any of the others drop out and Biden is the clear challenger to Sanders, a lot of their support will find him acceptable as the stop Sanders candidate. Whereas if Biden dropped out, Sanders would get a lot of his supporters and the rest wouldn't have a moderate they could coalesce behind (Klobuchar might go after ST, but I doubt either Bloomberg or Buttigieg will)

What's interesting in the article is how different a narrow Biden win looks from a big win. It'd be nice to know how much of that is just predictive (i.e. a vote in one state correlates with the vote in others, and may be a better predictor than polls) and how much is due to expectations for the media cycle. I actually think the media would report a 2% Biden lead exactly the same way as a 7% lead. Once you get above 9 or below 1 you might start seeing some distinction.

This was interesting:

"What’s wrong with California? Well, nothing, nothing at all. But California takes a long time — days and sometimes even weeks! — to count its votes since mail ballots there only need to be postmarked by Election Day. Moreover, those late returns often shift the margins toward candidates such as Sanders who do well among younger voters, since younger voters are typically slower to send in their ballots. Thus, the Super Tuesday media narrative could already be written by the time California reports reliable results, and the initial returns in California might underestimate Sanders’s eventual vote share there."

Cyclefree said:

isam said:

Cyclefree said:

isam said:

Cyclefree said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Cyclefree said:

AlastairMeeks said:

It betrays an intellectual cringe on their part, a subconscious recognition that the people whose opinions they esteem disdain their views. They should ask themselves why they esteem the opinions of those people and if they still want their esteem, why those people disdain their views.

If the “Remainers” (to use a short-hand) do not do the hard thinking about what sort of a society they want for the future and how to get it, they will keep on losing the battle of ideas, policies and elections.

Brexiteers were the people for who the country was going in a direction they strongly disapproved of pre June 2016, when it was just as much a ‘fact’ that the country was going to hell in a handcart, ie not a fact, but an opinion some of them held, as the more extreme Remainers do now.

True. That’s politics. But when the wind changes those who want a different direction need to have done the hard thinking about what they do want and how to get there. Not simply sulked. Now is the time for those not in power to do that hard thinking.

Yes. I think the mistake the opposition are about to make is to argue against the Highbrow Tory ‘We don’t like certain aspects of clauses in EU legislature that inhibit our ability to trade with Buenos Aries’ version of Leave, when the only reason Leave won and Labour got thrashed is FOM. In short, they’re overthinking it in order to stay on their safe space and avoid having to do something major about immigration

Yes - a fair point. It will depend on how the new immigration policy works out in practice. Who - and from where - will immigrants now be coming? And what will the social, economic and cultural effects of this be? I think there are some quite significant dangers for the Tories in relation to their policy for their own supporters. But we will need to see. The opposition might be wise to wait and see before committing themselves to anything.

To my mind, Brexit is a result of Thatcher destroying the Trade Unions, then Blair wrecking the labour market. It is unbelievable really that the only chance to get back protectionism for low wage workers jobs turned out to be electing Boris Johnson as PM... but there it is

eek said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Cyclefree said:

Worse than being subservient to the WTO?

To a degree yes

Once again I don't think people see the issue - we aren't just subservient to the WTO we would be reliant on them to resolve any and all abuses over countries tried to inflict on us.

Yes but I doubt we would be long in getting FTA post WTO

Cyclefree said:

isam said:

Cyclefree said:

isam said:

Cyclefree said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Cyclefree said:

AlastairMeeks said:

It betrays an intellectual cringe on their part, a subconscious recognition that the people whose opinions they esteem disdain their views. They should ask themselves why they esteem the opinions of those people and if they still want their esteem, why those people disdain their views.

Agreed. I do think, though, that those who feel the country is going in the wrong direction need to learn from their mistakes and fight for what they want. I am not prepared to let my country go down the wrong path, even if there is little in practice I can do. But intelligent thought and self-reflection, particularly if it leads to better ideas from those who can, are worth it.

If the “Remainers” (to use a short-hand) do not do the hard thinking about what sort of a society they want for the future and how to get it, they will keep on losing the battle of ideas, policies and elections.

Brexiteers were the people for who the country was going in a direction they strongly disapproved of pre June 2016, when it was just as much a ‘fact’ that the country was going to hell in a handcart, ie not a fact, but an opinion some of them held, as the more extreme Remainers do now.

True. That’s politics. But when the wind changes those who want a different direction need to have done the hard thinking about what they do want and how to get there. Not simply sulked. Now is the time for those not in power to do that hard thinking.

Yes. I think the mistake the opposition are about to make is to argue against the Highbrow Tory ‘We don’t like certain aspects of clauses in EU legislature that inhibit our ability to trade with Buenos Aries’ version of Leave, when the only reason Leave won and Labour got thrashed is FOM. In short, they’re overthinking it in order to stay on their safe space and avoid having to do something major about immigration

Yes - a fair point. It will depend on how the new immigration policy works out in practice. Who - and from where - will immigrants now be coming? And what will the social, economic and cultural effects of this be? I think there are some quite significant dangers for the Tories in relation to their policy for their own supporters. But we will need to see. The opposition might be wise to wait and see before committing themselves to anything.

Labour did not get trashed because of FOM unless you are an away with the fairies Brexit fantasist. Labour got trashed because of Jeremy Corbyn

Alistair said:

HYUFD said:

Alistair said:

HYUFD said:

In 2004 Rasmussen had Bush beating Kerry by 2, in 2008 Rasmussen had Obama beating McCain by 6 and as you say in 2016 they had Hillary ahead by 2 on the popular vote. So bar 2012 since they were founded in 2003 Rasmussen have a good record in presidential elections.

Plus given their poll today had Trump beating Sanders by 7, given in 2012 Obama won by 3, even on their same error as 2012 Trump would still lead Sanders by 2

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/blast-from-rasmussen-past/

As five thirty eight point out Rasmussen had a strong 2004 and 2006.

In 2000 and 2002 they were wank and after 2006 they've been wank as well.

Their mid-term polling in 2018 was appalling. Maybe they subscribed to some ridiculous notion that turnout was going to be low.

No, as I have pointed out Rasmussen had a good 2008 and 2016 as well.

They may not have a good midterms record but that is irrelevant as this is a presidential election so only their presidential elections record counts.

Rasmussen Reports was founded in 2003, any other references to Scott Rasmussen pollsters prior were not the same polling company

They were literally one of the worst state pollsters in 2008, it was even linked in the five thirty eight article

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_IKhPZc5iEus/SfCoMmJLh7I/AAAAAAAAAEk/Ea5AlJ78Hho/S220/Wall+Street+Chart.jpg

Rasmussen's final 2008 national poll had Obama up by 6 and Obama won by 7 and today's Rasmussen was also a national not a state poll

https://twitter.com/BBCWorld/status/1232993615351336960

eek said:

SandyRentool said:

We have been advised that we can say "No Thanks" to any overseas business trips for the time being.

Sadly that policy does not extend to Middlesbrough.

What's the difference between an overseas business trip and a UK one. What makes a airport / plane different from an train station / train.

The cabin air circulation would be one factor. But, hey, I didn't set the policy!

IshmaelZ said:

I do wonder whether there aren't people in the mirror image position who use them but devoutly wish they didn't exist, because of course one would make any sacrifice for the kids but it would save a lot of money if the opportunity to do so were removed.

Yes, bet they're are. That's why I sometimes try and sell the end of private schools as akin to a massive middle class tax break.

The point is a bit like with smoking too. I smoke. I've smoked cigarettes all my life and am hooked beyond redemption. I would love to stop but I am too weak to manage it. The only way I COULD kick it is if fags were made illegal. That would do it. I wouldn't break the law and risk prison or a crippling fine. Therefore if there were a binding national vote on whether to ban smoking or not, I would vote Yes.

DavidL said:

Pulpstar said:

DavidL said:

Oh for god's sake. Are we totally incapable of getting anything done in this country ever? https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51658693

This is what happens when your country is a lawyerocracy.

I know. As a lawyer I have repeatedly railed against it.

In fairness its also what happens when gesture inclined politicians sign up to nonsense like the Climate Change Act without the slightest idea of how they are going to achieve it. The passing of laws based on no more than good intentions is a disease started in the Blair years and for which we have yet to find a vaccine.

As you well know, it was not lawyers who passed this Act.

Gesture law-making is the disease. Saying that the courts should ignore laws is not the cure. One person’s gesture law might be another person’s protection from arbitrary arrest or having their property taken away without compensation.

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1232976835710943232?s=20
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1232978599101313025?s=20
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1232978978224377856?s=20

https://twitter.com/GlobalVision_UK/status/1233003425186635776?s=20

malcolmg said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Beibheirli_C said:

OldKingCole said:

Just had a Guardian (I know) newsflash that the Govt will consider walking away from the Brexit transition talks in June

They might as well. The timetable is near impossible. But we all knew that back in December when the Blond Buffoon said "No Extensions".

Just grandstanding from Boris. He'll capitulate, but he knows his base will swallow it if he's able to paint the right picture in advance.

I don't think he will.

Of course he won't. The notion he will is only coming from those who didn't believe in Brexit in the first place and don't see the point of it.

I think it is going to come as a big shock to the EU and those who want to remain that on this Boris will not be moved

It is amazing that the EU cannot see, or just does not want to see, that this is not the TM government but a brexit government with an 80 seat majority and of course this is happening in the first year of a five year HOC allowing Boris the political leeway to ride out any storm

We will pay big time for the fat buffoons petulant behaviour

Can't you guys just UDI already? What's taking so long?

https://twitter.com/MichelBarnier/status/1232997011999293440?s=20

For those interested, this is a good article on AI development in the chip industry;
https://www.eetimes.com/all-processing-bends-toward-ai/

Stark_Dawning said:

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1232976835710943232?s=20
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1232978599101313025?s=20
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1232978978224377856?s=20

https://twitter.com/GlobalVision_UK/status/1233003425186635776?s=20

Boris's Brexit strategy is in tatters.

I don’t think he ever had one that extended beyond winning the election.

Cyclefree said:

DavidL said:

Pulpstar said:

DavidL said:

Oh for god's sake. Are we totally incapable of getting anything done in this country ever? https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51658693

This is what happens when your country is a lawyerocracy.

I know. As a lawyer I have repeatedly railed against it.

In fairness its also what happens when gesture inclined politicians sign up to nonsense like the Climate Change Act without the slightest idea of how they are going to achieve it. The passing of laws based on no more than good intentions is a disease started in the Blair years and for which we have yet to find a vaccine.

As you well know, it was not lawyers who passed this Act.

Gesture law-making is the disease. Saying that the courts should ignore laws is not the cure. One person’s gesture law might be another person’s protection from arbitrary arrest or having their property taken away without compensation.

I think that is the point I am making. But I don't really see how Judges determine that this lofty goal for the UK is incompatible with the building of a single airport at Heathrow. How can they say what offset measures will or will not be taken in the next 30 years? And why on earth is it Heathrow's problem to fix the carbon strategy of the whole of the UK to explain why they can proceed with their development when the government cannot be arsed doing it itself?

Beibheirli_C said:

Cyclefree said:

Groupthink on the “liberal” side is as silly and dangerous as it is anywhere else. Those who dislike what Brexit is turning into need to ask ourselves some hard questions about why we have not been able to persuade people to our views. Not simply deplore or criticise others for being wrong.

And how it that supposed to happen? All sorts of reasons against Brexit where given, mostly economics, trade, medicine, influence, etc, etc, and the basic response was a stamping of feet and toys being hurled from the Leaver pram.

We get told that it is all about identity and sovereignty. Remainers pointed out that the very act of Brexit proves we still had sovereignty and the shouting just starts up again.

What are you supposed to do when the other side does not want to listen? As a Remainer I viewed myself as British and the UK as a sovereign country - the things that Brexit was supposed to be giving me, I had already. To me Brexit just appears to be an almost wilful act of self-harm.

The only "justification" I can see for Brexit is the one that gets denied every time it is brought up - keep the foreigners out, they are taking our jobs. Point it out and toys start flying from the pram again.

I think an opposition needs to think hard about all these matters so that when it is in power or has an opportunity to take power it knows what it wants to say, how to say it and how to enact what it wants to do. That may be next year or in 5 or 10. But events will happen, facts and feelings will change, a new generation will grow up - and there will come a time when people will listen.

Just as the Brexit argument, so long a fringe view, became something that people one day listened to.

I don’t think re-arguing the referendum debate is the way to go. But learning from that and thinking about the future is.

Perhaps I am being naive and hopeful. But nothing is forever in politics.

Stark_Dawning said:

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1232976835710943232?s=20
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1232978599101313025?s=20
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1232978978224377856?s=20

https://twitter.com/GlobalVision_UK/status/1233003425186635776?s=20

Boris's Brexit strategy is in tatters.

No, Boris has always been prepared to go to WTO terms if he cannot get a Canada style FTA, it was May who ruled out WTO terms or even a Canada Deal with the EU with the Chequers Deal which had regulations closely aligned with the EU and a level playing field as Barnier wanted

Big_G_NorthWales said:

IanB2 said:

HYUFD said:

IanB2 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

logical_song said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Beibheirli_C said:

OldKingCole said:

Just had a Guardian (I know) newsflash that the Govt will consider walking away from the Brexit transition talks in June

They might as well. The timetable is near impossible. But we all knew that back in December when the Blond Buffoon said "No Extensions".

Just grandstanding from Boris. He'll capitulate, but he knows his base will swallow it if he's able to paint the right picture in advance.

I don't think he will.

Of course he won't. The notion he will is only coming from those who didn't believe in Brexit in the first place and don't see the point of it.

I think it is going to come as a big shock to the EU and those who want to remain that on this Boris will not be moved

It is amazing that the EU cannot see, or just does not want to see, that this is not the TM government but a brexit government with an 80 seat majority and of course this is happening in the first year of a five year HOC allowing Boris the political leeway to ride out any storm

I'm afraid you're missing the point.
A No Deal Brexit will be worse for the UK than for the EU.
No matter how strong willed Boris is the EU will make the best possible decisions for the EU 27 countries. They won't cut off their nose to spite their face but if Boris won't compromise neither will they bend over backwards to help him.
Sorry for the mixed metaphors.

And so it becomes the Australian deal announced in early June to give exporters time to adjust for 1st January

I cannot see Boris, Cummings or the government shifting on this

Did you ever explain why no deal last year was so terrible that you were about to leave the Conservative party and never vote for them again, but no deal this year doesn't seem to concern you that much at all?

We have a Deal, the Withdrawal Agreement, the question is just whether we trade with the EU on Canada terms or Australia terms

The "deal" simply postpones the damage Mr G was up in arms about from this year to next year.

We have no way of knowing how much economic damage brexit will cause for some years to come

Nothing above explains your dramatic change of opinion.

DavidL said:

Pulpstar said:

DavidL said:

Oh for god's sake. Are we totally incapable of getting anything done in this country ever? https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51658693

This is what happens when your country is a lawyerocracy.

I know. As a lawyer I have repeatedly railed against it.

In fairness its also what happens when gesture inclined politicians sign up to nonsense like the Climate Change Act without the slightest idea of how they are going to achieve it. The passing of laws based on no more than good intentions is a disease started in the Blair years and for which we have yet to find a vaccine.

See also the rushing around at the end of 2019 when it became clear that many train operators were going to miss the deadline for getting rid of rolling stock that didn’t comply with disability legislation.

(b) total excess P&I death rate during the study period to the timing of various NPIs. Cities were divided evenly into those intervening early (black bars) vs. late or not at all (gray bars), and the median outcome for the early and late groups was plotted. The first two groups of bars assess overall timing of intervention, comparing those cities that announced four or more NPIs before experiencing 20/100,000 CEPID with those with three or fewer and those that announced five or more NPIs before experiencing 30/100,000 CEPID with those with four or fewer. The remaining groups compare those cities that announced particular measures before experiencing 30/100,000 CEPID with those that did not. Significance by Mann–Whitney U test: ∗, P < 0.05; ∗∗, P < 0.01.

From: Public health interventions and epidemic intensity during the 1918 influenza pandemic

I'm going to post this Figure (and its companion) most days over the early spread of this pandemic. Feel free to pass it on. If anyone wants the article, because it is behind a paywall at JAMA, then I will happily email it over.

Democratic Leaders Willing to Risk Party Damage to Stop Bernie Sanders
Interviews with dozens of Democratic Party officials, including 93 superdelegates, found overwhelming opposition to handing Mr. Sanders the nomination if he fell short of a majority of delegates.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/27/us/politics/democratic-superdelegates.html?action=click&amp;module=Top Stories&amp;pgtype=Homepage

IanB2 said:

Stark_Dawning said:

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1232976835710943232?s=20
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1232978599101313025?s=20
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1232978978224377856?s=20

https://twitter.com/GlobalVision_UK/status/1233003425186635776?s=20

Boris's Brexit strategy is in tatters.

I don’t think he ever had one that extended beyond winning the election.

I predicted all this months ago. The Tories are now in a political position where they cannot accept EU control over UK law so opted for a simple FTA. The EU has taken a more extreme position of demanding control over UK law even for a basic FTA agreement. Remainers in the UK take the EU's side so the EU believes there is pressure on the UK government to accept it and they won't back down. We end up with no agreement at all.

So we didn't fight for EEA/CU and ended up being left with the May deal. We didn't fight for the May deal and ended up being left with a Canada deal. Now we're not fighting for the Canada deal and will be left with no deal.

BluestBlue said:

malcolmg said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Beibheirli_C said:

OldKingCole said:

Just had a Guardian (I know) newsflash that the Govt will consider walking away from the Brexit transition talks in June

They might as well. The timetable is near impossible. But we all knew that back in December when the Blond Buffoon said "No Extensions".

Just grandstanding from Boris. He'll capitulate, but he knows his base will swallow it if he's able to paint the right picture in advance.

I don't think he will.

Of course he won't. The notion he will is only coming from those who didn't believe in Brexit in the first place and don't see the point of it.

I think it is going to come as a big shock to the EU and those who want to remain that on this Boris will not be moved

It is amazing that the EU cannot see, or just does not want to see, that this is not the TM government but a brexit government with an 80 seat majority and of course this is happening in the first year of a five year HOC allowing Boris the political leeway to ride out any storm

We will pay big time for the fat buffoons petulant behaviour

Can't you guys just UDI already? What's taking so long?

I wish

HYUFD said:

Stark_Dawning said:

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1232976835710943232?s=20
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1232978599101313025?s=20
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1232978978224377856?s=20

https://twitter.com/GlobalVision_UK/status/1233003425186635776?s=20

Boris's Brexit strategy is in tatters.

No, Boris has always been prepared to go to WTO terms if he cannot get a Canada style FTA, it was May who ruled out WTO terms or even a Canada Deal with the EU with the Chequers Deal which had regulations closely aligned with the EU and a level playing field as Barnier wanted

So Boris's post-Brexit strategy was just to slink away with nothing? So much for 'oven ready'. But, in truth, this is just about getting his base into the correct mental state. He'll do the EU's bidding in the end.

rottenborough said:

NYT:

In recent weeks, Democrats have placed a steady stream of calls to Senator Sherrod Brown of Ohio, who opted against running for president nearly a year ago, suggesting that he can emerge as a white knight nominee at a brokered convention — in part on the theory that he may carry his home state in a general election.

My Boy Sherrod Brown.

Gabs3 said:

IanB2 said:

Stark_Dawning said:

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1232976835710943232?s=20
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1232978599101313025?s=20
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1232978978224377856?s=20

https://twitter.com/GlobalVision_UK/status/1233003425186635776?s=20

Boris's Brexit strategy is in tatters.

I don’t think he ever had one that extended beyond winning the election.

I predicted all this months ago. The Tories are now in a political position where they cannot accept EU control over UK law so opted for a simple FTA. The EU has taken a more extreme position of demanding control over UK law even for a basic FTA agreement. Remainers in the UK take the EU's side so the EU believes there is pressure on the UK government to accept it and they won't back down. We end up with no agreement at all.

So we didn't fight for EEA/CU and ended up being left with the May deal. We didn't fight for the May deal and ended up being left with a Canada deal. Now we're not fighting for the Canada deal and will be left with no deal.

And the choice at the next general election will likely be continued No Deal/WTO terms with Boris or EEA/CU with Starmer, a much clearer choice on the post Brexit relationship with the EU than the fudge of May and Corbyn

GideonWise said:

Thickness and selfishness will be the undoing of us all.

Now theres a comment which could stand in isolation on any thread.

I'm not so misanthropic as to suggest it would be an appropriate epitaph for humanity, but even so...

Gabs3 said:

IanB2 said:

Stark_Dawning said:

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1232976835710943232?s=20
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1232978599101313025?s=20
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1232978978224377856?s=20

https://twitter.com/GlobalVision_UK/status/1233003425186635776?s=20

Boris's Brexit strategy is in tatters.

I don’t think he ever had one that extended beyond winning the election.

I predicted all this months ago. The Tories are now in a political position where they cannot accept EU control over UK law so opted for a simple FTA. The EU has taken a more extreme position of demanding control over UK law even for a basic FTA agreement. Remainers in the UK take the EU's side so the EU believes there is pressure on the UK government to accept it and they won't back down. We end up with no agreement at all.

So we didn't fight for EEA/CU and ended up being left with the May deal. We didn't fight for the May deal and ended up being left with a Canada deal. Now we're not fighting for the Canada deal and will be left with no deal.

Remainers are not in charge. Boris has an 80 seat majority. Any pro-EU MPs cannot even obstruct or delay

If Britain ends up with a WTO exit, the responsibility in Britain rests with the pro-Brexit government.

eek said:

eristdoof said:

rottenborough said:

NYT:

In recent weeks, Democrats have placed a steady stream of calls to Senator Sherrod Brown of Ohio, who opted against running for president nearly a year ago, suggesting that he can emerge as a white knight nominee at a brokered convention — in part on the theory that he may carry his home state in a general election.

A steady stream could be 1call each day.

It could be 1 call every week / month...

From his Mum and Dad.....

Stark_Dawning said:

HYUFD said:

Stark_Dawning said:

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1232976835710943232?s=20
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1232978599101313025?s=20
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1232978978224377856?s=20

https://twitter.com/GlobalVision_UK/status/1233003425186635776?s=20

Boris's Brexit strategy is in tatters.

No, Boris has always been prepared to go to WTO terms if he cannot get a Canada style FTA, it was May who ruled out WTO terms or even a Canada Deal with the EU with the Chequers Deal which had regulations closely aligned with the EU and a level playing field as Barnier wanted

So Boris's post-Brexit strategy was just to slink away with nothing? So much for 'oven ready'. But, in truth, this is just about getting his base into the correct mental state. He'll do the EU's bidding in the end.

He won't, otherwise he will be toppled by his backbenchers as May was as the Brexit Party revive and Farage returns crying betrayal, with Patel or Raab likely replacing him

BluestBlue said:

Living in a free society must be such a trial for some people.

I like a bit of freedom as much as the next man but there are limits. Watch the space on Covid, for example. People's freedom to spread it may need to be forcibly curtailed.

Biden-Bloomberg crossover.

isam said:

kinabalu said:

isam said:

Yes. I think the mistake the opposition are about to make is to argue against the Highbrow Tory ‘We don’t like certain aspects of clauses in EU legislature that inhibit our ability to trade with Buenos Aries’ version of Leave, when the only reason Leave won and Labour got thrashed is FOM. In short, they’re overthinking it in order to stay on their safe space and avoid having to do something major about immigration

I've "liked" your post because you provide a valuable service on here - being the only Leave poster who regularly makes the point that Immigration and FoM was the biggest single driver of the 2016 win for Brexit, and therefore for Brexit itself. I think you're wrong about Immigration but are totally right that being wrong about it was the most important common denominator distinguishing the 17m from the 16m. That we have on here so many Leavers with liberal views on Immigration rather warps our debate away from "out there". Not complaining, it's all good, but it's a point to be borne in mind.

I actually like the concept of FOM. But we have to accept that, as it stands, it is unattractive for most of the UK, particularly the poorer people. They want job security at home, not freedom to move around Europe as they please.

I work at home and my gf is on maternity leave. The other day, watching the news on Brexit, I said we could move to Poland, buy a house, be mortgage free & raise our family there. I was kind of joking, although I would kind of like to do something like that, but she didn’t even assume for one nanosecond that I would be serious.

Not unattractive for Scotland for sure.

Personally, as an unconvincing Russian bot rather than a person I'm quite relaxed about covid19.