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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Almost all the front pages are about the virus

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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    There was a quite a lot of mild racism on this site about the virus in China. It was their genetics that made them susceptible, it was the fact that they pissed and shat in the streets. It's the fact they eat dogs or whatever.

    Actually the Chinese, when they realised what was going on, are much better placed as a society and as a system of government to handle this.

    Their mentality is correct. You do need to lock down from the top but you also need a willingness from below to accept that it is necessary. Do we have that in the UK?

    I'm afraid not. What we have currently is: "I've booked my holiday and I'm going on it".

    That needs to change very very quickly.

    It won't

    Like it or not the 'chinese' way of doing things has many advantages. Want to contain an outbreak? Shut down the city. Want to build a trainline, just do it...
    This is often said without stopping to consider the downside.

    It ignores property rights, planning law and public opinion - in other words the fundamentals of a democracy.

    If the Chinese were building HS2 it would have started 5-6 years ago because they’d simply have ignored all opposition and just confiscated the land from those who went public in opposing them, paying minimal or little compensation, and heritage or environmental concerns would have been thrown right out the window.

    In building the line everything (including health & safety) would have been sacrificed to maintaining the schedule, and political and legal threats used against non cooperative contractors who tried to play a commercial game.

    Are we sure we’re up for that?
    I'm not denying there's downsides, but there's advantages as well. And they shouldnt be ignored.
    “But Mussolini made the trains run on time”

    Those who sacrifice liberty for security deserve neither
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    eek said:

    I don't know why Boris hates courts - look at the problem they've just resolved for him

    https://twitter.com/DavidHerdson/status/1232972382287081472

    I thought they had passed legislation to approve the runway anyway? Wouldn’t that mean - assuming correctly drafted - it is by definition lawful?
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    eristdooferistdoof Posts: 4,897
    The person was not "reinfected" they had a relapse. Something that is very common with viral diseases.
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,226

    I completely agree. Brexit was a vehicle for getting into power, nothing more.

    This is key to understanding the last few years in UK politics. Brexit, yes, but more fundamentally what we have seen is the rollout of the Boris Johnson Project with Brexit merely a tool (albeit the biggest) in the box.

    To write it up in school science format -

    Objective:

    The ascent to untrammeled political power of one Boris Johnson.

    Method:

    Raise profile and support in Tory rank and file. Use Brexit.
    Destabilize and bring down Theresa May. Use Brexit.
    Win party leadership and become PM. Use Brexit.
    Win general election with overall majority. Use Brexit.

    Results:

    Done. Done. Done. Done (in spades).

    Conclusion:

    Objective achieved.
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    eristdooferistdoof Posts: 4,897
    tlg86 said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/football/2020/feb/27/pep-guardiola-tactics-real-madrid-manchester-city

    And that really is what is so repellant about the superclub era, even if the money came from the purest of sources and was spent in scrupulous observance of financial fair play regulations: it means clubs such as Madrid and Barcelona can be run staggeringly badly with no real consequence, their wealth and status sustaining them so they can come back for another large slice of the pie the following year.

    The New York Yankees have been doing just that for over 50 years.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Alistair said:

    NYT:

    In recent weeks, Democrats have placed a steady stream of calls to Senator Sherrod Brown of Ohio, who opted against running for president nearly a year ago, suggesting that he can emerge as a white knight nominee at a brokered convention — in part on the theory that he may carry his home state in a general election.

    My Boy Sherrod Brown.
    I have a fiver riding on Sherrod Brown.
    Alas I long ago traded away any Sherrod Brown bets I made way back when.

    Curse you Biden.
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    eadric said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Groupthink on the “liberal” side is as silly and dangerous as it is anywhere else. Those who dislike what Brexit is turning into need to ask ourselves some hard questions about why we have not been able to persuade people to our views. Not simply deplore or criticise others for being wrong.

    And how it that supposed to happen? All sorts of reasons against Brexit where given, mostly economics, trade, medicine, influence, etc, etc, and the basic response was a stamping of feet and toys being hurled from the Leaver pram.

    We get told that it is all about identity and sovereignty. Remainers pointed out that the very act of Brexit proves we still had sovereignty and the shouting just starts up again.

    What are you supposed to do when the other side does not want to listen? As a Remainer I viewed myself as British and the UK as a sovereign country - the things that Brexit was supposed to be giving me, I had already. To me Brexit just appears to be an almost wilful act of self-harm.

    The only "justification" I can see for Brexit is the one that gets denied every time it is brought up - keep the foreigners out, they are taking our jobs. Point it out and toys start flying from the pram again.
    And if you’d had your way, and the Europhile elite had engineered a 2nd referendum, without enacting the first, you’d have proved that we, the British people, were very definitely NOT sovereign. If a vote can be overruled, all democratic sovereignty is lost.

    You still don’t get this. I don’t believe you ever will. It is outwith your comprehension.
    "The British people" are not sovereign you numpty, the British state is, and always was.
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    glw said:

    NYT:

    In recent weeks, Democrats have placed a steady stream of calls to Senator Sherrod Brown of Ohio, who opted against running for president nearly a year ago, suggesting that he can emerge as a white knight nominee at a brokered convention — in part on the theory that he may carry his home state in a general election.

    Isn't he a bit young to be running at only 67 years old?
    I realise this has happened in the past e.g. James K Polk but it would be truly bizarre if they spent 6 months holding primaries and then picked someone else.
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    BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    kinabalu said:

    Living in a free society must be such a trial for some people.

    I like a bit of freedom as much as the next man but there are limits. Watch the space on Covid, for example. People's freedom to spread it may need to be forcibly curtailed.
    I like to think there's a significant difference between losing the freedom to spread a deadly disease and losing the freedom to pursue educational excellence for one's children...
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,671
    edited February 2020
    Charles said:

    eek said:

    I don't know why Boris hates courts - look at the problem they've just resolved for him

    https://twitter.com/DavidHerdson/status/1232972382287081472

    I thought they had passed legislation to approve the runway anyway? Wouldn’t that mean - assuming correctly drafted - it is by definition lawful?
    Isn't it the case that a law can prove to be unlawful if it breaks another law?

    E.g., to use a hypothetical example, a law that reintroduced selective education might conceivably fall foul of the 2010 Equality Act which states ("An authority... must, when making decisions of a strategic nature about how to exercise its functions, have due regard to the desirability of exercising them in a way that is designed to reduce the inequalities of outcome which result from socio-economic disadvantage.")

    A suitable Equality Act amendment might be passed at the same time to overcome that difficulty but if not the hypothetical Selective Education Act could be unlawful. Maybe.
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    BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    kinabalu said:

    I completely agree. Brexit was a vehicle for getting into power, nothing more.

    This is key to understanding the last few years in UK politics. Brexit, yes, but more fundamentally what we have seen is the rollout of the Boris Johnson Project with Brexit merely a tool (albeit the biggest) in the box.

    To write it up in school science format -

    Objective:

    The ascent to untrammeled political power of one Boris Johnson.

    Method:

    Raise profile and support in Tory rank and file. Use Brexit.
    Destabilize and bring down Theresa May. Use Brexit.
    Win party leadership and become PM. Use Brexit.
    Win general election with overall majority. Use Brexit.

    Results:

    Done. Done. Done. Done (in spades).

    Conclusion:

    Objective achieved.
    Quite. The point of the Tory landslide is not to enable Brexit. The point of Brexit was to enable a Tory landslide.

    I voted Remain, but for a return to the political power dynamics of Thatcher in her pomp? I'll swallow Brexit with gusto.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    CORONA POPE
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125

    NYT:

    In recent weeks, Democrats have placed a steady stream of calls to Senator Sherrod Brown of Ohio, who opted against running for president nearly a year ago, suggesting that he can emerge as a white knight nominee at a brokered convention — in part on the theory that he may carry his home state in a general election.

    All calls said the same thing.

    "PLEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEASE......help us out here......"
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,001
    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    HYUFD said:



    In 2004 Rasmussen had Bush beating Kerry by 2, in 2008 Rasmussen had Obama beating McCain by 6 and as you say in 2016 they had Hillary ahead by 2 on the popular vote. So bar 2012 since they were founded in 2003 Rasmussen have a good record in presidential elections.

    Plus given their poll today had Trump beating Sanders by 7, given in 2012 Obama won by 3, even on their same error as 2012 Trump would still lead Sanders by 2

    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/blast-from-rasmussen-past/

    As five thirty eight point out Rasmussen had a strong 2004 and 2006.

    In 2000 and 2002 they were wank and after 2006 they've been wank as well.

    Their mid-term polling in 2018 was appalling. Maybe they subscribed to some ridiculous notion that turnout was going to be low.
    No, as I have pointed out Rasmussen had a good 2008 and 2016 as well.

    They may not have a good midterms record but that is irrelevant as this is a presidential election so only their presidential elections record counts.

    Rasmussen Reports was founded in 2003, any other references to Scott Rasmussen pollsters prior were not the same polling company
    They were literally one of the worst state pollsters in 2008, it was even linked in the five thirty eight article

    http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_IKhPZc5iEus/SfCoMmJLh7I/AAAAAAAAAEk/Ea5AlJ78Hho/S220/Wall+Street+Chart.jpg
    Rasmussen's final 2008 national poll had Obama up by 6 and Obama won by 7 and today's Rasmussen was also a national not a state poll
    How did Rasmussen do in the 2018 midterms?
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,190
    Pulpstar said:

    CORONA POPE

    Which one?
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    Pulpstar said:

    CORONA POPE

    It's all gone to shit since he slapped the hand of that Chinese woman.

    Feck, the Pope is Patient Zero.
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    eristdooferistdoof Posts: 4,897
    eadric said:

    eristdoof said:

    The person was not "reinfected" they had a relapse. Something that is very common with viral diseases.
    That’s not true either. The fact is doctors don’t really know, and major experts are disputing this.
    My comment was based on this from the Guardian's live feed

    Paul Hunter, professor in medicine at the University of East Anglia cautions against reading too much into the case of a Japanese woman who has tested positive for coronavirus for a second time.

    In remarks distributed by the Science Media Centre he said:

    So there are a two possibilities

    1. This is indeed a relapse of the illness – This was seen in Sars but in someone who was being treated with steroids. It is possible that the illness could be biphasic as suggested by Dr Tierno, though this is unlikely to be common, based on current information.

    2. She has a prolonged excretion of virus from her initial infection and tests were either not done or were not done sufficiently well or enough to confirm clearance. It does appear that swabs for the virus are not 100% reliable. In this case it is even possible that the recent sore throat may be unrelated. Covid-19 tends to cause upper respiratory tract symptoms rather less frequently than did Sars.

    I would caution against reading too much into this report, given the lack of information. However, the report reinforces the fact that we have to investigate all such findings really thoroughly and report such information if we are to make the best decisions based on sound scientific evidence. At this time I would counsel against changing management guidelines based on this case but we do need to always keep them under review.
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    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    CORONA POPE

    Which one?
    Francis, not confirmed, but he's cancelled stuff

    https://twitter.com/MirrorBreaking_/status/1233004467580284930
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    Pulpstar said:

    CORONA POPE

    It's all gone to shit since he slapped the hand of that Chinese woman.

    Feck, the Pope is Patient Zero.
    No, no, no.

    Francis the Mule.
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,226
    isam said:

    I was quite a heavy smoker and gave up pretty easily. My method was to choose a date in the not so distant future, and switch from
    Bensons to Silk Cut until then. On that date I just didn’t have my fag on the way to work, then didn’t have my fag at the 11am tea break, then not at lunch and so on. Little milestones. At night I tried to eat a fruit pastille without chewing every time I wanted a cigarette. And it worked! Actually can’t believe I ever smoked now

    I am on Silk Cut now rather than Marlboro Red and on 10 a day rather than 20. But this is supplemented with vaping and nicotine lozenges - for after 5.30 pm since I don't smoke after 5.30 pm unless I'm out, which I hardly ever am. Out is for dynamic risk-takers, which is no longer me.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    Is Silk Cut a sort of "Bud light" of fags ?
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    Pete Buttigieg's odds for the nomination are now weirdly short given his presidential odds. Implied 2-1 against vs Trump. If he's going to shock the world on Super Tuesday I'd have thought it would be the other way round.
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,979
    TGOHF666 said:

    malcolmg said:

    isam said:

    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    Yes. I think the mistake the opposition are about to make is to argue against the Highbrow Tory ‘We don’t like certain aspects of clauses in EU legislature that inhibit our ability to trade with Buenos Aries’ version of Leave, when the only reason Leave won and Labour got thrashed is FOM. In short, they’re overthinking it in order to stay on their safe space and avoid having to do something major about immigration

    I've "liked" your post because you provide a valuable service on here - being the only Leave poster who regularly makes the point that Immigration and FoM was the biggest single driver of the 2016 win for Brexit, and therefore for Brexit itself. I think you're wrong about Immigration but are totally right that being wrong about it was the most important common denominator distinguishing the 17m from the 16m. That we have on here so many Leavers with liberal views on Immigration rather warps our debate away from "out there". Not complaining, it's all good, but it's a point to be borne in mind.
    I actually like the concept of FOM. But we have to accept that, as it stands, it is unattractive for most of the UK, particularly the poorer people. They want job security at home, not freedom to move around Europe as they please.

    I work at home and my gf is on maternity leave. The other day, watching the news on Brexit, I said we could move to Poland, buy a house, be mortgage free & raise our family there. I was kind of joking, although I would kind of like to do something like that, but she didn’t even assume for one nanosecond that I would be serious.
    Not unattractive for Scotland for sure.
    Scotland should be attracting workers by offering lower taxes than rUk - not higher taxes as under the SNP.
    What bollox Harry, I explained this to you in Janet and John language the other day. Show this to your Mum and she will explain it to you.
    56% of Scottish taxpayers pay less than the UK taxpayers. If you include the free additional services Scotland gets then the other 44% also pay less, that means 100% pay less tax than rest of UK. This was detailed in Westminster parliament by a Tory minister, under duress from SNP to tell the truth, last week or earlier this week.
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    eristdoof said:

    ...
    But the UK was not sovereign because our passports were the color of French wine.

    How deliciously ironic that blue passports will be made in France :D:D:D
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,979
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    MightyAlexMightyAlex Posts: 1,442

    glw said:

    NYT:

    In recent weeks, Democrats have placed a steady stream of calls to Senator Sherrod Brown of Ohio, who opted against running for president nearly a year ago, suggesting that he can emerge as a white knight nominee at a brokered convention — in part on the theory that he may carry his home state in a general election.

    Isn't he a bit young to be running at only 67 years old?
    I realise this has happened in the past e.g. James K Polk but it would be truly bizarre if they spent 6 months holding primaries and then picked someone else.
    If the Dem Nominee is outsourced, I can't see Trump losing. I would say that outcome would be the ultimate in political disenfranchisement.

    IMO a plurality should be enough and would be enough for anyone but Sanders.
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    Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 7,981
    edited February 2020
    eadric said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Groupthink on the “liberal” side is as silly and dangerous as it is anywhere else. Those who dislike what Brexit is turning into need to ask ourselves some hard questions about why we have not been able to persuade people to our views. Not simply deplore or criticise others for being wrong.

    And how it that supposed to happen? All sorts of reasons against Brexit where given, mostly economics, trade, medicine, influence, etc, etc, and the basic response was a stamping of feet and toys being hurled from the Leaver pram.

    We get told that it is all about identity and sovereignty. Remainers pointed out that the very act of Brexit proves we still had sovereignty and the shouting just starts up again.

    What are you supposed to do when the other side does not want to listen? As a Remainer I viewed myself as British and the UK as a sovereign country - the things that Brexit was supposed to be giving me, I had already. To me Brexit just appears to be an almost wilful act of self-harm.

    The only "justification" I can see for Brexit is the one that gets denied every time it is brought up - keep the foreigners out, they are taking our jobs. Point it out and toys start flying from the pram again.
    And if you’d had your way, and the Europhile elite had engineered a 2nd referendum, without enacting the first, you’d have proved that we, the British people, were very definitely NOT sovereign. If a vote can be overruled, all democratic sovereignty is lost.

    You still don’t get this. I don’t believe you ever will. It is outwith your comprehension.
    No, I did understand it.

    You do not seem to get that just because I was on the losing side does not mean that I eject my previous stance and fall into line. I am not Big_G.

    Like UKIP and Farage, who disagreed for 40 years, I shall continue to argue my side of the argument. That is the essential of democracy. If I (and Remain) had been able to persuade the majority of people in the UK to reverse the previous decision, that is still democracy. It is persuasion, not tanks on the lawn or the rule of the jackboot.

    Besides, what are you complaining about? You won. You got your Brexit.
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    contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    IF this outbreak happened in China under, say Mao, we in the west probably would never have even heard about it, much less been in danger of catching it.

    Globalisation has undoubtedly brought huge benefits, but I wonder if this changes the debate down the line at all.

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    isamisam Posts: 40,930
    Has anyone here watched BBC Storyville on Jonestown? A Leonardo di Caprio production I think. Quite harrowing, I had to pause it a couple of times it was so heavy.


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    MightyAlexMightyAlex Posts: 1,442
    In other news the odds of my 'alternative' equities hedge have halved.....

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.162087290
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125
    edited February 2020
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    edited February 2020
    If Biden is ahead of Bloomberg in Florida I reckon he's probably ahead of him everywhere.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125
    edited February 2020

    eristdoof said:

    ...
    But the UK was not sovereign because our passports were the color of French wine.

    How deliciously ironic that blue passports will be made in France :D:D:D
    The Govt. has got the taxpayers the best deal on sourcing passports.

    What part of that would you change?
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,226

    I like to think there's a significant difference between losing the freedom to spread a deadly disease and losing the freedom to pursue educational excellence for one's children...

    But where the excellence is at the expense of those less financially blessed it becomes something not a million miles from hard-coding gross inequality into our society. To go with the disease analogy it is not just propagating it but making it impossible to treat. But anyway. We are where we are.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125

    glw said:

    NYT:

    In recent weeks, Democrats have placed a steady stream of calls to Senator Sherrod Brown of Ohio, who opted against running for president nearly a year ago, suggesting that he can emerge as a white knight nominee at a brokered convention — in part on the theory that he may carry his home state in a general election.

    Isn't he a bit young to be running at only 67 years old?
    I realise this has happened in the past e.g. James K Polk but it would be truly bizarre if they spent 6 months holding primaries and then picked someone else.
    Look at the front runners.

    That ain't bizarre. That's self-preservation.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125
    eadric said:

    Except I just saw THIS

    https://twitter.com/anadoluagency/status/1233026339877330945?s=20

    Tempted to do a LOL, but that would be cruel

    Cruel would be if he died.
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    eristdoof said:

    ...
    But the UK was not sovereign because our passports were the color of French wine.

    How deliciously ironic that blue passports will be made in France :D:D:D
    The Govt. has got the taxpayers the best deal on sourcing passports.

    What part of that would you change?
    I cannot recall any previous UK government allowing documents that control entry to the country to be produced in a foreign country.

    But anything to big up your party is OK by you????
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    MightyAlexMightyAlex Posts: 1,442
    eadric said:

    Except I just saw THIS

    https://twitter.com/anadoluagency/status/1233026339877330945?s=20

    Tempted to do a LOL, but that would be cruel

    If one prominent minister has it what are the chances that all the high ranking ministers will be dropping in the next few weeks?

    Are UK ministers going to be self isolating from Hatt Mancock?
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125
    isam said:

    Has anyone here watched BBC Storyville on Jonestown? A Leonardo di Caprio production I think. Quite harrowing, I had to pause it a couple of times it was so heavy.


    We had recorded it. My wife watched it and deleted it, she found it so disturbing.
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    NEW THREAD

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    brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited February 2020
    Pulpstar said:

    CORONA POPE

    Time to get Benedict off the subs bench.
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,226

    Quite. The point of the Tory landslide is not to enable Brexit. The point of Brexit was to enable a Tory landslide.

    I voted Remain, but for a return to the political power dynamics of Thatcher in her pomp? I'll swallow Brexit with gusto.

    Lo, we agree on something. Brexit has delivered "Boris" upon the nation is a truer statement than "Boris" has delivered Brexit.

    But you will, I fear, be disappointed in your hopes for him and this administration from this point on.
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,226
    Pulpstar said:

    Is Silk Cut a sort of "Bud light" of fags ?

    Yes. They are leb green to Marlboro Red's freebase.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,282
    How do they know that whatever the test is just happens to stay positive for a while after you’ve had it? Like any antibody test.
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    BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,447
    malcolmg said:

    TGOHF666 said:

    malcolmg said:

    isam said:

    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    Yes. I think the mistake the opposition are about to make is to argue against the Highbrow Tory ‘We don’t like certain aspects of clauses in EU legislature that inhibit our ability to trade with Buenos Aries’ version of Leave, when the only reason Leave won and Labour got thrashed is FOM. In short, they’re overthinking it in order to stay on their safe space and avoid having to do something major about immigration

    I've "liked" your post because you provide a valuable service on here - being the only Leave poster who regularly makes the point that Immigration and FoM was the biggest single driver of the 2016 win for Brexit, and therefore for Brexit itself. I think you're wrong about Immigration but are totally right that being wrong about it was the most important common denominator distinguishing the 17m from the 16m. That we have on here so many Leavers with liberal views on Immigration rather warps our debate away from "out there". Not complaining, it's all good, but it's a point to be borne in mind.
    I actually like the concept of FOM. But we have to accept that, as it stands, it is unattractive for most of the UK, particularly the poorer people. They want job security at home, not freedom to move around Europe as they please.

    I work at home and my gf is on maternity leave. The other day, watching the news on Brexit, I said we could move to Poland, buy a house, be mortgage free & raise our family there. I was kind of joking, although I would kind of like to do something like that, but she didn’t even assume for one nanosecond that I would be serious.
    Not unattractive for Scotland for sure.
    Scotland should be attracting workers by offering lower taxes than rUk - not higher taxes as under the SNP.
    What bollox Harry, I explained this to you in Janet and John language the other day. Show this to your Mum and she will explain it to you.
    56% of Scottish taxpayers pay less than the UK taxpayers. If you include the free additional services Scotland gets then the other 44% also pay less, that means 100% pay less tax than rest of UK. This was detailed in Westminster parliament by a Tory minister, under duress from SNP to tell the truth, last week or earlier this week.
    Yes, and I've explained that this is a bogus argument. The 56% are, literally. just a few quid better off, while higher-rate taxpayers are clobbered. And the free stuff is due to large fiscal transfers to Holyrood from Westminster - over £1000 per person more available for spending than south of the border. You can buy a lot of flags with that.
This discussion has been closed.