Hopefully, it’s just a phase, but there’s a reason such people are quickly bundled off to the rear during wars.
Not in the 21st C. British forces. They just get given massive amounts of drugs.
Is that a good idea when it comes to SeanT?
Possibly not. But remember that eadric is definitely not SeanT. eadric is merely a user that coincidentally just happened to join the site the day after Bryonic got banned and Bryonic is 100% definitely not SeanT because . . . ummm . . . he says so?
As I recall Brexit night, SeanT reappeared within the hour of Byronic getting banned.
Still, it seems the three of them currently have a nine-bed house to share.
Bullying isn't always wrong. This is one of those cases.
Bullying is always wrong, full stop
I remember a friend claiming that torture should in cases be acceptable. It turns out that he had heard that "sleep deprivation" counts as torture and found it acceptable that the police, when arresting someone in the evening, question them through the night and assigned this scenario to "toture through sleep deprivation".
I would also claim that bullying is always wrong, but I doubt that the case in the telegraph really counts as "bullying". More like criticising or haranguing.
Corona Virus prognosis in the UK. Hubei Province has approximately the same population as the UK. So far there have been ca 2500 deaths (I don't have the break out of the Hubei versus all China figure). Deaths, which are obviously a trailing indicator, are declining rapidly.
This suggests to me a plausible final death toll in the UK of low thousands with the following observations:
Coronavirus took Hubei by surprise. We should be better prepared.
The healthcare system in China is more fragmented than in the UK.
The death toll may pick up again in Hubei after an abeyance.
Hubei is massively locked down now, after the initial weak response
Hubei isn't similar to the UK in that we don't have the capability or will to lock down the entire country. Hubei also has significantly more respirators, and a single government that also shut down regions with frequent travellers to/from Hubei, vastly lowering the odds of re-infection.
Weirdly, I feel more stoic the closer it gets. I was far more concerned when it was incubating and growing in China, which felt (if I’m totally honest) more abstract.
It’s almost a relief it’s finally here, which means that in 2-3 months it will have peaked and be on the decline.
It’s the waiting and uncertainty that’s intolerable.
All over by Christmas?
I know what you’re implying, and it’s a classic hostage to fortune on eating your own words, but I'd say peak in the UK March to May, and with a very long tail going into 2021 when the vaccines come online. Possibly with another mini spike next winter.
So, probably not *all* over by Christmas 2020 but definitely by Christmas 2021.
Corona Virus prognosis in the UK. Hubei Province has approximately the same population as the UK. So far there have been ca 2500 deaths (I don't have the break out of the Hubei versus all China figure). Deaths, which are obviously a trailing indicator, are declining rapidly.
This suggests to me a plausible final death toll in the UK of low thousands with the following observations:
Coronavirus took Hubei by surprise. We should be better prepared.
The healthcare system in China is more fragmented than in the UK.
The death toll may pick up again in Hubei after an abeyance.
Hubei is massively locked down now, after the initial weak response
Its worth keeping some perspective. The annual flu season kills more than that in the UK every single year, even with the flu vaccine.
We discussed the other day that the average chance of death during any year is one in a hundred, skewed heavily by age and health.
In the worst case, it looks like Corona has a death rate of 2%, and may have an incidence rate of 10-20% (based on US estimates of worst normal flu years). So the chance of dying from Corona in a year, in the pandemic case, could be around one in two hundred and fifty to one in five hundred - again heavily skewed by age and health.
Therefore for all of us the best guess is that a worst case global pandemic means we each have a chance of death this year increased by a factor of around 20 to 40%. Since most of us had a pretty small chance of dying this year in the first place, this is significant but not dramatic.
There were twelve Brits in that ski chalet, spending an entire holiday in cold weather in close quarters with each other. One of the Brits arrived carrying the disease; five of the remaining eleven got it, but six did not, despite all that exposure.
Corona Virus prognosis in the UK. Hubei Province has approximately the same population as the UK. So far there have been ca 2500 deaths (I don't have the break out of the Hubei versus all China figure). Deaths, which are obviously a trailing indicator, are declining rapidly.
This suggests to me a plausible final death toll in the UK of low thousands with the following observations:
Coronavirus took Hubei by surprise. We should be better prepared.
The healthcare system in China is more fragmented than in the UK.
The death toll may pick up again in Hubei after an abeyance.
Hubei is massively locked down now, after the initial weak response
Its worth keeping some perspective. The annual flu season kills more than that in the UK every single year, even with the flu vaccine.
*If* the UK does have ca 2500 deaths due to COVID-19 this year, then ironically the number of deaths due to flu in the 2020/2021 winter will be significantly lower!
Nothing like this level of controls is put on normal flu.
There was quite a lot of mild racism on this site about the virus in China. It was their genetics that made them susceptible, it was the fact that they pissed and shat in the streets. It's the fact they eat dogs or whatever.
Actually the Chinese, when they realised what was going on, are much better placed as a society and as a system of government to handle this.
Their mentality is correct. You do need to lock down from the top but you also need a willingness from below to accept that it is necessary. Do we have that in the UK?
I'm afraid not. What we have currently is: "I've booked my holiday and I'm going on it".
Bullying isn't always wrong. This is one of those cases.
Really? You think she ought to be bullied just because she voted in a different way to her friends?
Her real problem is that she is flag-waving for a brand that has become increasingly toxic and nasty and I say that as someone who voted Conservative in the past. Whilst bullying is wrong I cannot say that I am surprised she is experiencing it.
Sean has managed to flop about whilst remaining in a state of constant panic, one minute pronouncing that a chunk of us is going to die whatever we do so we may as well act normally and wait for the inevitable doom, the next minute advocating a variety of irrational responses.
I can't see that that is true. All the evidence so far has been dodgy because it comes from China and I think he has tried to caveat for that all along. His advice to sell equities 3 weeks ago was undoubtedly the most profitable (or rather loss-averting, for those of us who don't understand this shorting lark) tip in the history of the forum.
Well my specific shorting advice, posted here from the weekend onwards, supplemented by my GBP/CHF tip yesterday, has so far made me in excess of £4k - three quarters of which would have been available to anyone following me in, even with small stakes.
There was a quite a lot of mild racism on this site about the virus in China. It was their genetics that made them susceptible, it was the fact that they pissed and shat in the streets. It's the fact they eat dogs or whatever.
Actually the Chinese, when they realised what was going on, are much better placed as a society and as a system of government to handle this.
Their mentality is correct. You do need to lock down from the top but you also need a willingness from below to accept that it is necessary. Do we have that in the UK?
I'm afraid not. What we have currently is: "I've booked my holiday and I'm going on it".
That needs to change very very quickly.
It won't
Like it or not the 'chinese' way of doing things has many advantages. Want to contain an outbreak? Shut down the city. Want to build a trainline, just do it...
There was quite a lot of mild racism on this site about the virus in China. It was their genetics that made them susceptible, it was the fact that they pissed and shat in the streets. It's the fact they eat dogs or whatever.
Actually the Chinese, when they realised what was going on, are much better placed as a society and as a system of government to handle this.
Their mentality is correct. You do need to lock down from the top but you also need a willingness from below to accept that it is necessary. Do we have that in the UK?
I'm afraid not. What we have currently is: "I've booked my holiday and I'm going on it".
AEP in Telegraph. Trump's anti-science obsessions about to be exposed by virus, Sanders could well win:
"What are the Dow index and the S&P 500 worth in a global economy facing - potentially - the worst ‘sudden stop’ since August 1914, and a new America led by a President Sanders with a mandate for socialist upheaval? Let’s be generous and say about half of current levels."
Ah this is what you are rightly famous for: cherrypicking polls.
1. Rasmussen consistently gives Trump much better numbers in its polls than all the other pollsters (except for the occasional Gallup). Check out the daily presidential approval polls https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/trump-approval/ eg yesterday Rasmussen shows Trump +3, the other 3 pollsters (who all have a better pollster rating on 538 than Rasmussen for what it's worth) range between -8 and -14 2. This poll seems to be a bit odd as it only matches Trump against Sanders, probably Rasmussen would have Trump beating other democrats by similar numbers. 3. If you want to check Trump vs Sanders national polls then it is either mathematically illiterate or dishonest to only look at one outlier. Here are the most recent ones: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/ You have to go back 16 polls to find another one where Sanders doesn't beat Trump. In many polls Sanders does better than any other Dem candidate.
Seasonal flu affects between 1 and 10% of the population annually (it varies widely) and around 1 in a thousand die of it. In the UK that's 700-7,000 deaths (out of 600,000 annual deaths from all causes).
So there are tens of thousands of people in the UK at this moment with identical sysmptoms to Covid-19. How to tell the difference? You test them. How many are being tested? How good is the test - false positives, false negatives? There will be a lot of worried people out there - those with seasonal flu and their friends and colleagues.
Covid-19 is another version of seasonal flu. The problem is that it is currently more dangerous (fatality 1% rather than 0.1%) I guess because there is no immunity in the population yet. Worse case for the UK could be 7,000 -70,000 extra deaths out of 600,000 annually.
Disclaimer: This is my current inexpert take on it. It is in no way authoritative so don't rely on it.
There was quite a lot of mild racism on this site about the virus in China. It was their genetics that made them susceptible, it was the fact that they pissed and shat in the streets. It's the fact they eat dogs or whatever.
Actually the Chinese, when they realised what was going on, are much better placed as a society and as a system of government to handle this.
Their mentality is correct. You do need to lock down from the top but you also need a willingness from below to accept that it is necessary. Do we have that in the UK?
I'm afraid not. What we have currently is: "I've booked my holiday and I'm going on it".
That needs to change very very quickly.
Hmm. Appreciate things don’t always look as they appear (and I’d hope this is fake news) but I’m not sure I’m up for what I’ve seen of welding apartments closed.
If they’re evacuated, it’s not necessary. You can just cleanse it down and patrol with a security guard.
If it’s occupied, and it’s to stop people getting out, it’s inhuman.
How many Chinese deaths from coronavirus are actually from malnutrition or starvation whilst infected where they would have otherwise recovered?
There was a quite a lot of mild racism on this site about the virus in China. It was their genetics that made them susceptible, it was the fact that they pissed and shat in the streets. It's the fact they eat dogs or whatever.
Actually the Chinese, when they realised what was going on, are much better placed as a society and as a system of government to handle this.
Their mentality is correct. You do need to lock down from the top but you also need a willingness from below to accept that it is necessary. Do we have that in the UK?
I'm afraid not. What we have currently is: "I've booked my holiday and I'm going on it".
That needs to change very very quickly.
It won't
Like it or not the 'chinese' way of doing things has many advantages. Want to contain an outbreak? Shut down the city. Want to build a trainline, just do it...
Want to put thousands of ethnic minority people in jail, just do it...
AEP in Telegraph. Trump's anti-science obsessions about to be exposed by virus, Sanders could well win:
"What are the Dow index and the S&P 500 worth in a global economy facing - potentially - the worst ‘sudden stop’ since August 1914, and a new America led by a President Sanders with a mandate for socialist upheaval? Let’s be generous and say about half of current levels."
Ah this is what you are rightly famous for: cherrypicking polls.
1. Rasmussen consistently gives Trump much better numbers in its polls than all the other pollsters (except for the occasional Gallup). Check out the daily presidential approval polls https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/trump-approval/ eg yesterday Rasmussen shows Trump +3, the other 3 pollsters (who all have a better pollster rating on 538 than Rasmussen for what it's worth) range between -8 and -14 2. This poll seems to be a bit odd as it only matches Trump against Sanders, probably Rasmussen would have Trump beating other democrats by similar numbers. 3. If you want to check Trump vs Sanders national polls then it is either mathematically illiterate or dishonest to only look at one outlier. Here are the most recent ones: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/ You have to go back 16 polls to find another one where Sanders doesn't beat Trump. In many polls Sanders does better than any other Dem candidate.
Rasmussen did have Clinton ahead by 2% in its final 2016 poll though, closer to the final popular vote result than most pollsters
There was a quite a lot of mild racism on this site about the virus in China. It was their genetics that made them susceptible, it was the fact that they pissed and shat in the streets. It's the fact they eat dogs or whatever.
Actually the Chinese, when they realised what was going on, are much better placed as a society and as a system of government to handle this.
Their mentality is correct. You do need to lock down from the top but you also need a willingness from below to accept that it is necessary. Do we have that in the UK?
I'm afraid not. What we have currently is: "I've booked my holiday and I'm going on it".
That needs to change very very quickly.
It won't
Like it or not the 'chinese' way of doing things has many advantages. Want to contain an outbreak? Shut down the city. Want to build a trainline, just do it...
This is often said without stopping to consider the downside.
It ignores property rights, planning law and public opinion - in other words the fundamentals of a democracy.
If the Chinese were building HS2 it would have started 5-6 years ago because they’d simply have ignored all opposition and just confiscated the land from those who went public in opposing them, paying minimal or little compensation, and heritage or environmental concerns would have been thrown right out the window.
In building the line everything (including health & safety) would have been sacrificed to maintaining the schedule, and political and legal threats used against non cooperative contractors who tried to play a commercial game.
Seasonal flu affects between 1 and 10% of the population annually (it varies widely) and around 1 in a thousand die of it. In the UK that's 700-7,000 deaths (out of 600,000 annual deaths from all causes).
So there are tens of thousands of people in the UK at this moment with identical sysmptoms to Covid-19. How to tell the difference? You test them. How many are being tested? How good is the test - false positives, false negatives? There will be a lot of worried people out there - those with seasonal flu and their friends and colleagues.
Covid-19 is another version of seasonal flu. The problem is that it is currently more dangerous (fatality 1% rather than 0.1%) I guess because there is no immunity in the population yet. Worse case for the UK could be 7,000 -70,000 extra deaths out of 600,000 annually.
Disclaimer: This is my current inexpert take on it. It is in no way authoritative so don't rely on it.
Very well put. There is one other difference that you have missed. The symptoms are like flu but the virus is a different type of virus from flu. There is as yet no way of vaccinating against it, which means that high risk people who are vaccinated against flu are not vaccinated against the new virus.
There was quite a lot of mild racism on this site about the virus in China. It was their genetics that made them susceptible, it was the fact that they pissed and shat in the streets. It's the fact they eat dogs or whatever.
I don't follow all the threads so I don't what else has been said but I think I was the person who brought up the "shitting in the streets" aspect, it's not about Chinese people in general, it's about Wuhan specifically. It's anecdote, but first-hand: I know a guy who lived in Wuhan last year, and says he saw it a lot. Obviously it doesn't mean other cities are safe since street-shitting is not the only vector, but I think what I heard about Wuhan being a very modern-looking city, but that went from rural to modern very fast and has terrible hygiene is relevant anecdata.
There was quite a lot of mild racism on this site about the virus in China. It was their genetics that made them susceptible, it was the fact that they pissed and shat in the streets. It's the fact they eat dogs or whatever.
Actually the Chinese, when they realised what was going on, are much better placed as a society and as a system of government to handle this.
Their mentality is correct. You do need to lock down from the top but you also need a willingness from below to accept that it is necessary. Do we have that in the UK?
I'm afraid not. What we have currently is: "I've booked my holiday and I'm going on it".
That needs to change very very quickly.
Hmm. Appreciate things don’t always look as they appear (and I’d hope this is fake news) but I’m not sure I’m up for what I’ve seen of welding apartments closed.
If they’re evacuated, it’s not necessary. You can just cleanse it down and patrol with a security guard.
If it’s occupied, and it’s to stop people getting out, it’s inhuman.
How many Chinese deaths from coronavirus are actually from malnutrition or starvation whilst infected where they would have otherwise recovered?
No and that would never happen here would it? It's too much. But the Overton window needs shifting towards how our East-Asian friends might handle things.
I would much prefer that to happen from the bottom-up, which would be broadly in line with how our liberal society operates. So we give information about the risks, we ask people to self-quarantine, we advise on avoiding all unnecessary travel, we tell them to keep kids off school if they are ill etc.
But having done research on how people understand risk, whether they are really interested in that and whether they truly understand it, I have my doubts. Moreover, having observed my fellow compatriots response to this situation, I am afraid the vast majority do not currently 'get it'.
Here is a great litmus test of whether people currently understand the situation facing us:
If they are worried about losing their deposit for their holiday, then they do not get it.
Sean has managed to flop about whilst remaining in a state of constant panic, one minute pronouncing that a chunk of us is going to die whatever we do so we may as well act normally and wait for the inevitable doom, the next minute advocating a variety of irrational responses.
I can't see that that is true. All the evidence so far has been dodgy because it comes from China and I think he has tried to caveat for that all along. His advice to sell equities 3 weeks ago was undoubtedly the most profitable (or rather loss-averting, for those of us who don't understand this shorting lark) tip in the history of the forum.
Well my specific shorting advice, posted here from the weekend onwards, supplemented by my GBP/CHF tip yesterday, has so far made me in excess of £4k - three quarters of which would have been available to anyone following me in, even with small stakes.
Sure. As I said, I have no idea how to short anything, so I am limited to selling stuff I already own.
AEP in Telegraph. Trump's anti-science obsessions about to be exposed by virus, Sanders could well win:
"What are the Dow index and the S&P 500 worth in a global economy facing - potentially - the worst ‘sudden stop’ since August 1914, and a new America led by a President Sanders with a mandate for socialist upheaval? Let’s be generous and say about half of current levels."
Ah this is what you are rightly famous for: cherrypicking polls.
1. Rasmussen consistently gives Trump much better numbers in its polls than all the other pollsters (except for the occasional Gallup). Check out the daily presidential approval polls https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/trump-approval/ eg yesterday Rasmussen shows Trump +3, the other 3 pollsters (who all have a better pollster rating on 538 than Rasmussen for what it's worth) range between -8 and -14 2. This poll seems to be a bit odd as it only matches Trump against Sanders, probably Rasmussen would have Trump beating other democrats by similar numbers. 3. If you want to check Trump vs Sanders national polls then it is either mathematically illiterate or dishonest to only look at one outlier. Here are the most recent ones: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/ You have to go back 16 polls to find another one where Sanders doesn't beat Trump. In many polls Sanders does better than any other Dem candidate.
Rasmussen did have Clinton ahead by 2% in its final 2016 poll though, closer to the final popular vote result than most pollsters
True, but their final 2018 House 'Generic Ballot' polls was GOP +1% when the actual outcome was Dem +8.5% and they consistently are far more Republican than other pollsters or the outcomes most of the time. The final poll on Clinton v Trump looks like a stopped clock being right in the wider context.
What are the methods for delaying an election in the US?
IIUC it may be possible with an Act of Congress, ie the agreement of both parties, but constitutionally the president can't do it unilaterally.
Since the current president doesn't care about the constitution he may try to do it anyway, but at that point we're in "who does the army follow if there's a coup d'état" territory.
However I guess there are all kinds of tricks he can pull to use the crisis to make it harder for Democrats to vote.
There was a quite a lot of mild racism on this site about the virus in China. It was their genetics that made them susceptible, it was the fact that they pissed and shat in the streets. It's the fact they eat dogs or whatever.
Actually the Chinese, when they realised what was going on, are much better placed as a society and as a system of government to handle this.
Their mentality is correct. You do need to lock down from the top but you also need a willingness from below to accept that it is necessary. Do we have that in the UK?
I'm afraid not. What we have currently is: "I've booked my holiday and I'm going on it".
That needs to change very very quickly.
It won't
Like it or not the 'chinese' way of doing things has many advantages. Want to contain an outbreak? Shut down the city. Want to build a trainline, just do it...
This is often said without stopping to consider the downside.
It ignores property rights, planning law and public opinion - in other words the fundamentals of a democracy.
If the Chinese were building HS2 it would have started 5-6 years ago because they’d simply have ignored all opposition and just confiscated the land from those who went public in opposing them, paying minimal or little compensation, and heritage or environmental concerns would have been thrown right out the window.
In building the line everything (including health & safety) would have been sacrificed to maintaining the schedule, and political and legal threats used against non cooperative contractors who tried to play a commercial game.
Are we sure we’re up for that?
I'm not denying there's downsides, but there's advantages as well. And they shouldnt be ignored.
It also helps that we don’t live and socialise in quite the same way here. We’re not hugely communitarian: most Brits limit themselves to the workplace or pubs & clubs outside of work, which can simply be suspended if needed.
So I’d expect people would limit themselves to immediate family plus essential work only.
The BBC comes into its own when things get serious. It's a good, simple explainer.
You really cannot rely on the press for the facts.
The BBC is a crap state propaganda unit, you cannot believe a word that comes out of it
Really? Not a word, even on basic non political issues? Thats so childish.
Eadric was actually quite late to the party here - I know forums where this was correctly called (with valid reasons why) back in late January.
When the first papers started coming out around the end of January it was pretty clear that it was going to be a big problem. China did a lot of sensible* things, but they would have needed to have done them about a month earlier to really nip it in the bud.
AEP in Telegraph. Trump's anti-science obsessions about to be exposed by virus, Sanders could well win:
"What are the Dow index and the S&P 500 worth in a global economy facing - potentially - the worst ‘sudden stop’ since August 1914, and a new America led by a President Sanders with a mandate for socialist upheaval? Let’s be generous and say about half of current levels."
Ah this is what you are rightly famous for: cherrypicking polls.
1. Rasmussen consistently gives Trump much better numbers in its polls than all the other pollsters (except for the occasional Gallup). Check out the daily presidential approval polls https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/trump-approval/ eg yesterday Rasmussen shows Trump +3, the other 3 pollsters (who all have a better pollster rating on 538 than Rasmussen for what it's worth) range between -8 and -14 2. This poll seems to be a bit odd as it only matches Trump against Sanders, probably Rasmussen would have Trump beating other democrats by similar numbers. 3. If you want to check Trump vs Sanders national polls then it is either mathematically illiterate or dishonest to only look at one outlier. Here are the most recent ones: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/ You have to go back 16 polls to find another one where Sanders doesn't beat Trump. In many polls Sanders does better than any other Dem candidate.
Rasmussen did have Clinton ahead by 2% in its final 2016 poll though, closer to the final popular vote result than most pollsters
True, but their final 2018 House 'Generic Ballot' polls was GOP +1% when the actual outcome was Dem +8.5% and they consistently are far more Republican than other pollsters or the outcomes most of the time. The final poll on Clinton v Trump looks like a stopped clock being right in the wider context.
In 2008 Rasmussen were also close, their final poll was 52% Obama to 46% McCain and they were also close in 2004 with a final poll of Bush 50% and Kerry 48%, though they got 2012 wrong having Romney ahead by 1% in their final poll they have a reasonable record in presidential elections unlike congressional midterm elections
It also helps that we don’t live and socialise in quite the same way here. We’re not hugely communitarian: most Brits limit themselves to the workplace or pubs & clubs outside of work, which can simply be suspended if needed.
So I’d expect people would limit themselves to immediate family plus essential work only.
The BBC comes into its own when things get serious. It's a good, simple explainer.
You really cannot rely on the press for the facts.
The BBC is a crap state propaganda unit, you cannot believe a word that comes out of it
Really? Not a word, even on basic non political issues? Thats so childish.
Personally I am very cautious about what I read on the BBC about this virus. In times of crisis the BBC will morph back into being an arm of the British state pumping out the propaganda.
In the previous thread the BBC claimed that shutting down public events and schools did little to change the spread of viruses like this.
A claim made without any citing evidence and a claim that's simply not true. It is however, parroting what Hancock was claiming yesterday. It is a catastrophic mistake in my view.
Who pays for Coronavirus testing and treatment in the US?
What are the methods for delaying an election in the US?
1. Individuals, hence this story about a man being charged thousands for out of pocket expenses. Note that he declined a more expensive test for coronavirus itself (he was tested for regular flu, which he had) precisely because of the cost. This is a major issue for the US response and containment hopes.
Who pays for Coronavirus testing and treatment in the US?
What are the methods for delaying an election in the US?
1. Individuals, hence this story about a man being charged thousands for out of pocket expenses. Note that he declined a more expensive test for coronavirus itself (he was tested for regular flu, which he had) precisely because of the cost. This is a major issue for the US response and containment hopes.
It also helps that we don’t live and socialise in quite the same way here. We’re not hugely communitarian: most Brits limit themselves to the workplace or pubs & clubs outside of work, which can simply be suspended if needed.
So I’d expect people would limit themselves to immediate family plus essential work only.
So basically being a miserable lot of buggers is going to keep the death rate down.
In the post-coronovirus dystopia only the introverted survive...
Who pays for Coronavirus testing and treatment in the US?
What are the methods for delaying an election in the US?
1. Individuals, hence this story about a man being charged thousands for out of pocket expenses. Note that he declined a more expensive test for coronavirus itself (he was tested for regular flu, which he had) precisely because of the cost. This is a major issue for the US response and containment hopes.
Who pays for Coronavirus testing and treatment in the US?
What are the methods for delaying an election in the US?
1. Individuals, hence this story about a man being charged thousands for out of pocket expenses. Note that he declined a more expensive test for coronavirus itself (he was tested for regular flu, which he had) precisely because of the cost. This is a major issue for the US response and containment hopes.
If you're like 80 years old and spend the whole day travelling around the country shaking peoples' hands them grabbing a few hours' sleep you must be at serious risk of this thing putting you out of action.
China can build a hospital in 6 days. We cant decide where to build a runway in over 6000 days and counting. Wonder which country will do better over the next century......
Bullying isn't always wrong. This is one of those cases.
Bullying is always wrong, full stop
I remember a friend claiming that torture should in cases be acceptable. It turns out that he had heard that "sleep deprivation" counts as torture and found it acceptable that the police, when arresting someone in the evening, question them through the night and assigned this scenario to "toture through sleep deprivation".
I would also claim that bullying is always wrong, but I doubt that the case in the telegraph really counts as "bullying". More like criticising or haranguing.
Exactly , just some snowflake unable to stand up to giving their opinion. Whining because someone disagrees.
Bullying isn't always wrong. This is one of those cases.
Bullying is always wrong, full stop
I remember a friend claiming that torture should in cases be acceptable. It turns out that he had heard that "sleep deprivation" counts as torture and found it acceptable that the police, when arresting someone in the evening, question them through the night and assigned this scenario to "toture through sleep deprivation".
I would also claim that bullying is always wrong, but I doubt that the case in the telegraph really counts as "bullying". More like criticising or haranguing.
Exactly , just some snowflake unable to stand up to giving their opinion. Whining because someone disagrees.
I get teased by right-wing friends. You just have to laugh. They soon get tired.
Bullying isn't always wrong. This is one of those cases.
Of course bullying is always wrong. The issue is whether what someone is on the receiving end of can reasonably be called bullying (their own perception being very relevant but not definitive - without being dismissive).
China can build a hospital in 6 days. We cant decide where to build a runway in over 6000 days and counting. Wonder which country will do better over the next century......
Wonder which will be better to live in. Also, does your answer differ if you give the hospital its more accurate name of detention centre? I really hate this drift towards a cult of Strong Government which Gets Things Done.
China can build a hospital in 6 days. We cant decide where to build a runway in over 6000 days and counting. Wonder which country will do better over the next century......
Where would you rather live? I yield to no-one in my frustration at our ability to Do Things, but I rather like the unlikelihood of the state arbitrarily appropriating my property or otherwise ruining my life in the name of progress.
China can build a hospital in 6 days. We cant decide where to build a runway in over 6000 days and counting. Wonder which country will do better over the next century......
Wonder which will be better to live in. Also, does your answer differ if you give the hospital its more accurate name of detention centre? I really hate this drift towards a cult of Strong Government which Gets Things Done.
Is asking for a decision on where to build a runway in less than 6000 days really a sign of seeking an authoritarian govt that gets things done? Wow.
Somebody once said there was nothing to fear but fear itself. Perhaps, but as 2011 showed, any disruption to the day to day for whatever reason provokes anxiety among many people. We may not love our routine but we live by it and it reassures us.
The fuel crisis of 2000 (for those with longer memories) shows just how quickly we unravel, both individually and collectively, once one of the key elements of our existence is threatened.
Fuel, food, health, power, safety - some of the key elements of life and perhaps the principal task of any Government is to maintain all of these whether expressed in the form of the administration of law or otherwise.
Mrs Stodge and I discussed coronavirus for the first time last evening - neither of us were worried for our personal health. She was more concerned she wouldn't be able to get to work and, as a contractor, if she doesn't work she doesn't get paid and she can't work at home. I told her she could do the crafts for which she never has the time.
If you're like 80 years old and spend the whole day travelling around the country shaking peoples' hands them grabbing a few hours' sleep you must be at serious risk of this thing putting you out of action.
It is a very interesting point, particularly considering the age of most of the Democrat candidates and Trump.
Somebody once said there was nothing to fear but fear itself. Perhaps, but as 2011 showed, any disruption to the day to day for whatever reason provokes anxiety among many people. We may not love our routine but we live by it and it reassures us.
The fuel crisis of 2000 (for those with longer memories) shows just how quickly we unravel, both individually and collectively, once one of the key elements of our existence is threatened.
Fuel, food, health, power, safety - some of the key elements of life and perhaps the principal task of any Government is to maintain all of these whether expressed in the form of the administration of law or otherwise.
Mrs Stodge and I discussed coronavirus for the first time last evening - neither of us were worried for our personal health. She was more concerned she wouldn't be able to get to work and, as a contractor, if she doesn't work she doesn't get paid and she can't work at home. I told her she could do the crafts for which she never has the time.
China can build a hospital in 6 days. We cant decide where to build a runway in over 6000 days and counting. Wonder which country will do better over the next century......
Where would you rather live? I yield to no-one in my frustration at our ability to Do Things, but I rather like the unlikelihood of the state arbitrarily appropriating my property or otherwise ruining my life in the name of progress.
At the moment obviously here in the UK. But looking at the rate of progress there is a fair chance that flips at some point within the next 50-100 years. And if I had grown up with Chinese values my answer might be different already so it is not a fair test in some ways.
Just had a Guardian (I know) newsflash that the Govt will consider walking away from the Brexit transition talks in June
I remember being told there was plenty of spare capacity at Luton and Stansted so why aren't we developing high-speed rail links from those airports into London?
China can build a hospital in 6 days. We cant decide where to build a runway in over 6000 days and counting. Wonder which country will do better over the next century......
Wonder which will be better to live in. Also, does your answer differ if you give the hospital its more accurate name of detention centre? I really hate this drift towards a cult of Strong Government which Gets Things Done.
Is asking for a decision on where to build a runway in less than 6000 days really a sign of seeking an authoritarian govt that gets things done? Wow.
Well, you expressly praised an authoritarian regime for building a concentration camp in 6 days, and bundled into your rhetoric about runways is presumably a claim that the fuddy duddy judges of the Court of Appeal are in some way wrong in upholding the rule of law.
If you're like 80 years old and spend the whole day travelling around the country shaking peoples' hands them grabbing a few hours' sleep you must be at serious risk of this thing putting you out of action.
It is a very interesting point, particularly considering the age of most of the Democrat candidates and Trump.
The other side to that is that a hyper-mobile candidate risks becoming an identifiable infection vector and ends up destroying their own campaign. The big winners may be TV and internet advertising.
Just had a Guardian (I know) newsflash that the Govt will consider walking away from the Brexit transition talks in June
Doesn't surprise me. They mean what they say.
That wasn't what Johnson said and campaigned on just last December. Bear in mind this "oven ready" deal was passed in parliament AFTER the election. This government is acting in bad faith, and not just with the EU.
Ms Mulvey is entitled to her views. She is not entitled to insist that others respect them. If she doesn't like how her "friends" think about her, she should find new and more congenial friends.
This is the latest trend on the far right - to assume that free speech should mean consequence-free speech. You can say what you like. And others can say what they like about what you have just said.
In turn, you can say what you like about their perspective. Just as Ms Mulvey has today, in the columns of a national newspaper.
I was referring to the riots and particularly that 36-48 hour period from the Sunday to the Tuesday when parts of certain towns and cities were out of control.
I was sent home early from work and Mrs Stodge had to have a police escort (along with many others) from the tube station because there was disorder along East Ham High Street on the Monday evening.
That was frightening for her just as 7/7 was in a different way.
China can build a hospital in 6 days. We cant decide where to build a runway in over 6000 days and counting. Wonder which country will do better over the next century......
Wonder which will be better to live in. Also, does your answer differ if you give the hospital its more accurate name of detention centre? I really hate this drift towards a cult of Strong Government which Gets Things Done.
Is asking for a decision on where to build a runway in less than 6000 days really a sign of seeking an authoritarian govt that gets things done? Wow.
Well, you expressly praised an authoritarian regime for building a concentration camp in 6 days, and bundled into your rhetoric about runways is presumably a claim that the fuddy duddy judges of the Court of Appeal are in some way wrong in upholding the rule of law.
We started planning work on the third runway in 2003. Of course the courts have a right (and duty) to uphold the law, but the processes around planning, including scheduling and duration of legal appeals, are clearly completely unfit for purpose if 17 years later we are no closer to a solution.
If you're like 80 years old and spend the whole day travelling around the country shaking peoples' hands them grabbing a few hours' sleep you must be at serious risk of this thing putting you out of action.
It is a very interesting point, particularly considering the age of most of the Democrat candidates and Trump.
AEP in Telegraph. Trump's anti-science obsessions about to be exposed by virus, Sanders could well win:
"What are the Dow index and the S&P 500 worth in a global economy facing - potentially - the worst ‘sudden stop’ since August 1914, and a new America led by a President Sanders with a mandate for socialist upheaval? Let’s be generous and say about half of current levels."
Has Mr Evans-Pritchard been correct about anything, ever? The Telegraph loved him because he wrote at least one article a week for at least 5 years explaining how the Euro was about to collapse.
If he suggests something, assume the opposite will occur. Like many pundits and allegedly expert commentators, he seems to be little more than an expert in repeat incorrectness.
If you're like 80 years old and spend the whole day travelling around the country shaking peoples' hands them grabbing a few hours' sleep you must be at serious risk of this thing putting you out of action.
It is a very interesting point, particularly considering the age of most of the Democrat candidates and Trump.
Another woman, quoted in the Mail, was on Breakfast Time this morning. Similar report. However, why is anyone there with children? Surely they should be at school. I'd be surprised if, at 45, she had two children under school age.
Just had a Guardian (I know) newsflash that the Govt will consider walking away from the Brexit transition talks in June
Doesn't surprise me. They mean what they say.
That wasn't what Johnson said and campaigned on just last December. Bear in mind this "oven ready" deal was passed in parliament AFTER the election. This government is acting in bad faith, and not just with the EU.
From "The Future Relationship with the EU: The UK’s Approach to Negotiations" Overall policy framework 4. The vision for the UK’s future relationship with the EU has already been set out, successively, in the manifesto on the basis of which the Government won the 12 December 2019 General Election, and, subsequently,in the Prime Minister’s speech in Greenwich on 3 February and his written Ministerial statement on the same day. 5. It is a vision of a relationship based on friendly cooperation between sovereign equals, with both parties respecting one another’s legal autonomy and right to manage their own resources as they see fit. Whatever happens, the Government will not negotiate any arrangement in which the UK does not have control of its own laws and political life. That means that we will not agree to any obligations for our laws to be aligned with the EU's, or for the EU's institutions, including the Court of Justice, to have any jurisdiction in the UK
Another woman, quoted in the Mail, was on Breakfast Time this morning. Similar report. However, why is anyone there with children? Surely they should be at school. I'd be surprised if, at 45, she had two children under school age.
Was half term last week in many places, might well be some where its a week later?
Another woman, quoted in the Mail, was on Breakfast Time this morning. Similar report. However, why is anyone there with children? Surely they should be at school. I'd be surprised if, at 45, she had two children under school age.
Presumably because they were there for half-term (last week for most schools) and weren't allowed to leave as expected at the weekend. (So are effectively on day 11 of what was meant to be a 7 day holiday if you see what I mean)
Another woman, quoted in the Mail, was on Breakfast Time this morning. Similar report. However, why is anyone there with children? Surely they should be at school. I'd be surprised if, at 45, she had two children under school age.
Was half term last week in many places, might well be some where its a week later?
Another woman, quoted in the Mail, was on Breakfast Time this morning. Similar report. However, why is anyone there with children? Surely they should be at school. I'd be surprised if, at 45, she had two children under school age.
Presumably because they were there for half-term (last week for most schools) and weren't allowed to leave as expected at the weekend. (So are effectively on day 11 of what was meant to be a 7 day holiday if you see what I mean)
China can build a hospital in 6 days. We cant decide where to build a runway in over 6000 days and counting. Wonder which country will do better over the next century......
China doesn't have that pesky problem of courts ruling on everything from climate targets to the impact on the lesser spotted eunuch bat population living within 100 miles of a potential development have been properly considered.
It is politically very good for Boris, but for the UK bad news. We need airport expansion, regardless of what the eco-fascists say.
AEP in Telegraph. Trump's anti-science obsessions about to be exposed by virus, Sanders could well win:
"What are the Dow index and the S&P 500 worth in a global economy facing - potentially - the worst ‘sudden stop’ since August 1914, and a new America led by a President Sanders with a mandate for socialist upheaval? Let’s be generous and say about half of current levels."
Has Mr Evans-Pritchard been correct about anything, ever? The Telegraph loved him because he wrote at least one article a week for at least 5 years explaining how the Euro was about to collapse.
If he suggests something, assume the opposite will occur. Like many pundits and allegedly expert commentators, he seems to be little more than an expert in repeat incorrectness.
Well he is right in that if the worst economic crisis since 1914 hits the US then the S&P will probably end up about half its current level, possibly less. But that is probably true throughout most parts of the last century so nothing unusual at all.
Dow dropped 54% in GFC, 31% in 1987, 89% in 1929.
But the question to answer is not what will happen if its the worst crisis in a century (it will be shit), but what is expected to happen given the limited knowledge we have today.
China can build a hospital in 6 days. We cant decide where to build a runway in over 6000 days and counting. Wonder which country will do better over the next century......
China doesn't have that pesky problem of courts ruling against these things.
It is politically very good for Boris, but for the UK bad news. We need airport expansion, regardless of what the eco-fascists say.
I could accept it if we made a decision not to have any more runways for environmental reasons, or if we decided Heathrow, Gatwick, Stansted or Birmingham were best placed for it, but not being able to come to any decision indefinitely is worse than all the above options.
Another woman, quoted in the Mail, was on Breakfast Time this morning. Similar report. However, why is anyone there with children? Surely they should be at school. I'd be surprised if, at 45, she had two children under school age.
I would have thought that the temperature in the Canaries provides a degree of insurance.
I have just come from a meeting between my town council and the lead doctor for the regional primary care network, who was telling us about the Corona briefing they've had from the NHS.
As we already know, they're not expecting to contain the outbreak and it's all about buying time and spreading the peak.
He did say that the NHS view is that the similarities with the ordinary flu virus are sufficient to believe that it is unlikely to like hotter conditions. So the crisis may well be next winter, rather than this summer.
He also said that preliminary assessment is that men appear to be significantly more susceptible to getting Corona than women or children.
On the basis that the major US cities move from winter to summer weather around the end of April, we can expect a significant recovery in the markets in the late spring.
Comments
I don’t think he was serious, because I’d hate to believe that he was.
Still, it seems the three of them currently have a nine-bed house to share.
I would also claim that bullying is always wrong, but I doubt that the case in the telegraph really counts as "bullying". More like criticising or haranguing.
So, probably not *all* over by Christmas 2020 but definitely by Christmas 2021.
Probably hasn’t even passed his driving test.
I’m kind of banking on developing immunity if I get it once.
In the worst case, it looks like Corona has a death rate of 2%, and may have an incidence rate of 10-20% (based on US estimates of worst normal flu years). So the chance of dying from Corona in a year, in the pandemic case, could be around one in two hundred and fifty to one in five hundred - again heavily skewed by age and health.
Therefore for all of us the best guess is that a worst case global pandemic means we each have a chance of death this year increased by a factor of around 20 to 40%. Since most of us had a pretty small chance of dying this year in the first place, this is significant but not dramatic.
There were twelve Brits in that ski chalet, spending an entire holiday in cold weather in close quarters with each other. One of the Brits arrived carrying the disease; five of the remaining eleven got it, but six did not, despite all that exposure.
Actually the Chinese, when they realised what was going on, are much better placed as a society and as a system of government to handle this.
Their mentality is correct. You do need to lock down from the top but you also need a willingness from below to accept that it is necessary. Do we have that in the UK?
I'm afraid not. What we have currently is: "I've booked my holiday and I'm going on it".
That needs to change very very quickly.
Like it or not the 'chinese' way of doing things has many advantages. Want to contain an outbreak? Shut down the city. Want to build a trainline, just do it...
1. Rasmussen consistently gives Trump much better numbers in its polls than all the other pollsters (except for the occasional Gallup). Check out the daily presidential approval polls
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/trump-approval/
eg yesterday Rasmussen shows Trump +3, the other 3 pollsters (who all have a better pollster rating on 538 than Rasmussen for what it's worth) range between -8 and -14
2. This poll seems to be a bit odd as it only matches Trump against Sanders, probably Rasmussen would have Trump beating other democrats by similar numbers.
3. If you want to check Trump vs Sanders national polls then it is either mathematically illiterate or dishonest to only look at one outlier. Here are the most recent ones:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/
You have to go back 16 polls to find another one where Sanders doesn't beat Trump. In many polls Sanders does better than any other Dem candidate.
https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/influenza-(seasonal)
Add '-(seasonal)' to the URL.
Seasonal flu affects between 1 and 10% of the population annually (it varies widely) and around 1 in a thousand die of it. In the UK that's 700-7,000 deaths (out of 600,000 annual deaths from all causes).
So there are tens of thousands of people in the UK at this moment with identical sysmptoms to Covid-19. How to tell the difference? You test them. How many are being tested? How good is the test - false positives, false negatives? There will be a lot of worried people out there - those with seasonal flu and their friends and colleagues.
Covid-19 is another version of seasonal flu. The problem is that it is currently more dangerous (fatality 1% rather than 0.1%) I guess because there is no immunity in the population yet. Worse case for the UK could be 7,000 -70,000 extra deaths out of 600,000 annually.
Disclaimer: This is my current inexpert take on it. It is in no way authoritative so don't rely on it.
If they’re evacuated, it’s not necessary. You can just cleanse it down and patrol with a security guard.
If it’s occupied, and it’s to stop people getting out, it’s inhuman.
How many Chinese deaths from coronavirus are actually from malnutrition or starvation whilst infected where they would have otherwise recovered?
It ignores property rights, planning law and public opinion - in other words the fundamentals of a democracy.
If the Chinese were building HS2 it would have started 5-6 years ago because they’d simply have ignored all opposition and just confiscated the land from those who went public in opposing them, paying minimal or little compensation, and heritage or environmental concerns would have been thrown right out the window.
In building the line everything (including health & safety) would have been sacrificed to maintaining the schedule, and political and legal threats used against non cooperative contractors who tried to play a commercial game.
Are we sure we’re up for that?
Who pays for Coronavirus testing and treatment in the US?
What are the methods for delaying an election in the US?
I would much prefer that to happen from the bottom-up, which would be broadly in line with how our liberal society operates. So we give information about the risks, we ask people to self-quarantine, we advise on avoiding all unnecessary travel, we tell them to keep kids off school if they are ill etc.
But having done research on how people understand risk, whether they are really interested in that and whether they truly understand it, I have my doubts. Moreover, having observed my fellow compatriots response to this situation, I am afraid the vast majority do not currently 'get it'.
Here is a great litmus test of whether people currently understand the situation facing us:
If they are worried about losing their deposit for their holiday, then they do not get it.
Since the current president doesn't care about the constitution he may try to do it anyway, but at that point we're in "who does the army follow if there's a coup d'état" territory.
However I guess there are all kinds of tricks he can pull to use the crisis to make it harder for Democrats to vote.
https://twitter.com/DavidHerdson/status/1232972382287081472
* Within the context of an authoritarian state.
In the previous thread the BBC claimed that shutting down public events and schools did little to change the spread of viruses like this.
A claim made without any citing evidence and a claim that's simply not true. It is however, parroting what Hancock was claiming yesterday. It is a catastrophic mistake in my view.
https://www.miamiherald.com/news/health-care/article240476806.html#storylink=cpy
2. Untested, but probably Congress could move the date of a Presidential election if they wanted to.
https://fas.org/sgp/crs/RL32471.pdf
Thank you, that's bad bad news. Between that, the very low level of savings, and the gun morons the US will be hit very badly.
AEB's comment today though means someone else will be the president - it won't be Bernie (as an AEB prediction never comes true).
So that's a definite!
They then tell us that Brexit is important because it is about identity, not economics....
The world will look very different come November.
I yield to no-one in my frustration at our ability to Do Things, but I rather like the unlikelihood of the state arbitrarily appropriating my property or otherwise ruining my life in the name of progress.
Thickness and selfishness will be the undoing of us all.
Somebody once said there was nothing to fear but fear itself. Perhaps, but as 2011 showed, any disruption to the day to day for whatever reason provokes anxiety among many people. We may not love our routine but we live by it and it reassures us.
The fuel crisis of 2000 (for those with longer memories) shows just how quickly we unravel, both individually and collectively, once one of the key elements of our existence is threatened.
Fuel, food, health, power, safety - some of the key elements of life and perhaps the principal task of any Government is to maintain all of these whether expressed in the form of the administration of law or otherwise.
Mrs Stodge and I discussed coronavirus for the first time last evening - neither of us were worried for our personal health. She was more concerned she wouldn't be able to get to work and, as a contractor, if she doesn't work she doesn't get paid and she can't work at home. I told her she could do the crafts for which she never has the time.
That wasn't well-received.
This is the latest trend on the far right - to assume that free speech should mean consequence-free speech. You can say what you like. And others can say what they like about what you have just said.
In turn, you can say what you like about their perspective. Just as Ms Mulvey has today, in the columns of a national newspaper.
I was sent home early from work and Mrs Stodge had to have a police escort (along with many others) from the tube station because there was disorder along East Ham High Street on the Monday evening.
That was frightening for her just as 7/7 was in a different way.
Found it.
If he suggests something, assume the opposite will occur. Like many pundits and allegedly expert commentators, he seems to be little more than an expert in repeat incorrectness.
However, why is anyone there with children? Surely they should be at school. I'd be surprised if, at 45, she had two children under school age.
Overall policy framework
4. The vision for the UK’s future relationship with the EU has already been set out, successively, in the manifesto on the basis of which the Government won the 12 December 2019 General Election, and, subsequently,in the Prime Minister’s speech in Greenwich on 3 February and his written Ministerial statement on the same day.
5. It is a vision of a relationship based on friendly cooperation between sovereign equals, with both parties respecting one another’s legal autonomy and right to manage their own resources as they see fit. Whatever happens, the Government will not negotiate any arrangement in which the UK does not have control of its own laws and political life. That means that we will not agree to any obligations for our laws to be aligned with the EU's, or for the EU's institutions, including the Court of Justice, to have any jurisdiction in the UK
Or something.
It is politically very good for Boris, but for the UK bad news. We need airport expansion, regardless of what the eco-fascists say.
Dow dropped 54% in GFC, 31% in 1987, 89% in 1929.
But the question to answer is not what will happen if its the worst crisis in a century (it will be shit), but what is expected to happen given the limited knowledge we have today.
I have just come from a meeting between my town council and the lead doctor for the regional primary care network, who was telling us about the Corona briefing they've had from the NHS.
As we already know, they're not expecting to contain the outbreak and it's all about buying time and spreading the peak.
He did say that the NHS view is that the similarities with the ordinary flu virus are sufficient to believe that it is unlikely to like hotter conditions. So the crisis may well be next winter, rather than this summer.
He also said that preliminary assessment is that men appear to be significantly more susceptible to getting Corona than women or children.
On the basis that the major US cities move from winter to summer weather around the end of April, we can expect a significant recovery in the markets in the late spring.