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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Almost all the front pages are about the virus
This is probably the first big test for the Johnson government. How to handle the growing concern about the virus which is sweeping many parts of the world.
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TGOHF666 said:
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I doubt many in Govanhill are worried about corona virus.
more likely it would would improve their life chances
Now none of that need be true, but those appear to be the labels each has ended up with and people hate changing that view and Nandy has a low ceiling.
In a way it might be better if Starmer didnt quite win outright on the first preference, that way his support level looks even better as he gets into the 60s.
It’s almost a relief it’s finally here, which means that in 2-3 months it will have peaked and be on the decline.
It’s the waiting and uncertainty that’s intolerable.
Panic? Well I'm not sure that ever really helps. But yes it's time to change gear on this.
This is serious. Probably extremely serious.
The FTSE is down 2.3% in early trading. The world economy is taking a huge hit already.
Eadric called this right. I've apologised to him for dissing his stance. Admitting when you're wrong is a hallmark of decency imho.
love to you all
x
"The Trump administration has cut funding for the US Center for Disease Control by 9pc. This month he proposed slashing it a further 16pc. The worst hit area has been pandemic preparation. The CDC’s global health security initiative has been chopped by 80pc, reducing country coverage from 49 to 10.
Mr Trump got rid of the US Complex Crises Fund. He shut down the pandemic and global health machinery at the White House, and fired the lot. "
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/explainers-51632801
1) Deaths to recovery ratio is not the same as mortality rate. (Eg Today HIV+ people have a low mortality rate but the recovery rate is as good as 0).
2) It is very dodgy to throw away 90% of the data, and just use 10% of the data).
3) Even is we ignore problems 1 and 2: When the number of infections is rapidly increasing, this is bound to be a biassed overestimate the stable rate. What is useful to us is the probability that "If I test positive tomorrow what is my death to recovery ratio?" We simply cannot ignore those who have been diagnosed but who will go on to recover when considering this.
Blaming the virus of Liverpool could easily work - just need to create a simple but vaguely plausible conspiracy theory. It won't be any stupider than the 5G masts are a contributing factor theory I saw yesterday.
The likely mortality rate is somewhere below 2% - and we'll have a pretty good idea with another two or three weeks of data from South Korea, which has been pretty scrupulous about releasing accurate information.
"What are the Dow index and the S&P 500 worth in a global economy facing - potentially - the worst ‘sudden stop’ since August 1914, and a new America led by a President Sanders with a mandate for socialist upheaval? Let’s be generous and say about half of current levels."
So, we need to ask ourselves, what good comes from catastrophising it? The drama? The adrenaline? Do we like the buzz? Do we get a kick out of panicking others?
I don’t think it helps. I’ll be limiting my commute to London to critical meetings only (one or two days a week) wearing gloves and a face & eye mask for that, avoiding the tube, and just keeping my fingers crossed (a) the schools stay open and (b) my family don’t get it. If they do I’ll be very worried, of course, and I’ll deal with it as best I can.
That’s all you can do. I’m calm.
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2020/02/26/keir-starmer-holds-his-commanding-lead-battle-labo
Of panic.
It’s not that he’s “wrong” (or right, for that matter) - lots of people were pointing out the virus was spreading - it was *how* he did it, which was very dramatic. Full mental breakdown in the trenches “oh my God, we’re all going to die!” stuff.
I don’t think that helps anyone.
Hopefully, it’s just a phase, but there’s a reason such people are quickly bundled off to the rear during wars.
It is the same with climate change.
The main difference is she would stick with the Corbyn Brexit plan as would Long Bailey but Starmer would commit to full single market alignment and return the UK to the EEA
This is serious and needs to be taken seriously but that doesn't mean panic. Panic doesn't lead to rational thinking. Make sure you're following best hygiene practices and think about how or where you travel. That's about all we can do unless we are on the frontline.
That would still be better than Corbyn who had a net negative rating with both Remainers and Leavers
I think Eadric has been somewhat over the top but to be fair he has kept it as a major debating issue on this forum and we are all entitled to our opinions
It does look as if many sporting events are going to be cancelled and large gatherings, especially in transport hubs, looks worrying and certainly the cruise industry is facing serious loses
We fly to Vancouver in May and flying is of considerable concern but we can only follow FO advice. We are fortunate to be retired so will not be effected work wise.
However, life will carry on, even if subject to some unusual restrictions, but the financial markets look very vulnerable
The UK is a very well organised country.
It also helps that we don’t live and socialise in quite the same way here. We’re not hugely communitarian: most Brits limit themselves to the workplace or pubs & clubs outside of work, which can simply be suspended if needed.
So I’d expect people would limit themselves to immediate family plus essential work only.
The NHS administrators claim this so they can pressure the government for more money.
The press and Tories say this because they don't like large nationalised institutions.
I think some here are forgetting that the best forecaster was clearly me, with my bet on Hamilton scoring at under 21 races this season based on disruption caused by the virus.
You really cannot rely on the press for the facts.
Pathetic scaremongering by effete halfwitted creatures.
I would not recommend taking another cruise in the next two months though!
Starmer trounces Long Bailey 69% to 31% with Labour members who voted Remain though
Corona Virus prognosis in the UK. Hubei Province has approximately the same population as the UK. So far there have been ca 2500 deaths (I don't have the break out of the Hubei versus all China figure). Deaths, which are obviously a trailing indicator, are declining rapidly.
This suggests to me a plausible final death toll in the UK of low thousands with the following observations:
GENTLER