Any stattos out there? What are the chances of catching the Corona virus in the UK compared to dying in a road traffic accident?
Anny decent "statto" knows that any estmate of the expected number of COVID-19 cases in the UK using the currently available data will have such a large confidence interval (precision) that the estimate is not really useful.
I can say that the number of RTA deaths in the UK in 2018 was 1,784.
It is realistic that the number of COVID-19 cases in the UK this year will be larger, but I have no idea how likely that is. There are simply too many unknowns, and we are right at the beginning of the curve. Personally I would be surprised if the number of deaths in the UK due to COVID-19 will be larger, which would imply that about 1 million people catch the virus.
Any stattos out there? What are the chances of catching the Corona virus in the UK compared to dying in a road traffic accident?
Anny decent "statto" knows that any estmate of the expected number of COVID-19 cases in the UK using the currently available data will have such a large confidence interval (precision) that the estimate is not really useful.
I can say that the number of RTA deaths in the UK in 2018 was 1,784.
It is realistic that the number of COVID-19 cases in the UK this year will be larger, but I have no idea how likely that is. There are simply too many unknowns, and we are right at the beginning of the curve. Personally I would be surprised if the number of deaths in the UK due to COVID-19 will be larger, which would imply that about 1 million people catch the virus.
They reckon between 5-20% of the population get ordinary flu each year. If this spreads as looks likely - either now or next winter - that implies a lot more than a million people who catch it.
Any stattos out there? What are the chances of catching the Corona virus in the UK compared to dying in a road traffic accident?
Anny decent "statto" knows that any estmate of the expected number of COVID-19 cases in the UK using the currently available data will have such a large confidence interval (precision) that the estimate is not really useful.
I can say that the number of RTA deaths in the UK in 2018 was 1,784.
It is realistic that the number of COVID-19 cases in the UK this year will be larger, but I have no idea how likely that is. There are simply too many unknowns, and we are right at the beginning of the curve. Personally I would be surprised if the number of deaths in the UK due to COVID-19 will be larger, which would imply that about 1 million people catch the virus.
Worst case scenario is that 60% will catch it within a year. So we've got to do our best to prevent that happening.
The case fatality rate will rise with the proportion of people catching it, so we need to do everything we can to stop people catching it in the first place.
Needless to say, Hancock is not impressing me at the moment. I'm sure he'll change tack soon when it becomes very serious. Hope it is not too late.
Big thing is the UK population needs educating on this rapidly. We need some leadership.
On topic, having not long woken up and not having looked at PB last night, I'm somewhat surprised at Nandy being 3rd. Seems to have a lot more about her than Long-Bailey, but given the respective ages I reckon her time will come. And yes, I've been following what's been happening, but thought that L-B wasn't doing as well as expected, and Nandy a lot better.
16% would be a lot better than expected for Nandy. RLB is the anointed one, Starmer the 'acceptable to all' one and Nandy is the right wing one who criticised the party.
Now none of that need be true, but those appear to be the labels each has ended up with and people hate changing that view.
In a way it might be better if Starmer didnt quite win outright on the first preference, that way his support level looks even better as he gets into the 60s.
"Under the Civil Contingencies Act, the government can close schools, shut down public transport and stop mass gatherings to protect the public."
"But all the evidence suggests those measures are not particularly effective at stopping the spread of something like coronavirus."
What evidence? The evidence is that it is about the only thing that WORKS.
Oh but this:
"Closing schools, for example, could disrupt exams and force parents to take time off work."
Absolute morons.
If schools close then both my wife and I couldn’t really work. We’d have to take childcare in shifts, and working from home would be out of the question.
So we’d either have to take unpaid leave or hope our companies took pity on us, and dozens of others.
Trump wins 84% of Republicans and Independents 49% to 39% for Sanders, 22% of Democrats also vote for Trump over Sanders. Sanders gets 75% of Democrats.
54% of white voters prefer Trump and 39% of whites prefer Sanders, Sanders gets 60% of blacks. Trump leads with other minorities 48% to 44%.
We’ve always said the test of this virus would be what it did in a transparent, advanced country, open with data, that did lots of testing
South Korea is giving us a frightening answer. Our main hope now is that the mortality rate is lower than we expect. Or that Admiral Summertime is steering his navy our way. Time to pray.
Time to pray maybe if it was black death, which had a 40% death rate and even 80% in some villages or even Spanish flu with a 20% death rate. However of those affected by coronavirus 98% will survive. That is no different than the average survival rate for any kind of surgery.
Despite your hysterical overreactions to this slightly more deadly than normal flu outbreak, even Wuhan is starting to get back to normal with patients starting to return home from quarantine
WE DON’T KNOW THE MORTALITY RATE
It could be anything from 0.5% to a terrifying 15%
1) Deaths to recovery ratio is not the same as mortality rate. (Eg Today HIV+ people have a low mortality rate but the recovery rate is as good as 0).
2) It is very dodgy to throw away 90% of the data, and just use 10% of the data).
3) Even is we ignore problems 1 and 2: When the number of infections is rapidly increasing, this is bound to be a biassed overestimate the stable rate. What is useful to us is the probability that "If I test positive tomorrow what is my death to recovery ratio?" We simply cannot ignore those who have been diagnosed but who will go on to recover when considering this.
Trump wins 84% of Republicans and Independents 49% to 39% for Sanders, 22% of Democrats also vote for Trump over Sanders. Sanders gets 75% of Democrats.
54% of white voters prefer Trump and 39% of whites prefer Sanders, Sanders gets 60% of blacks. Trump leads with other minorities 48% to 44%.
Some people are going to lose their minds if success starts to look likely for Trump. Will the guardian start another letter writing campaign again asking Midwest voters to vote Democrat ?
A bit more reading round on whether seasonality will save us. The experts are being, understandably, cautious about this idea. SARS and MERS, low transmission, but high fatality coronavirusses were not particularly seasonal. The low transmission may imply very close contact was needed, rather than just coughs and sneezes, or may imply low infection once on a human host.
COVIDs transmissibility very likely implies both coughs and sneezes spread it and decent infection rates on contact. Coronavirusses do vary in how they survive on surfaces, dog hepatitis is more durable than already known human forms, but it is within a fairly narrow extent.
The breakdown of such viruses is done by physical processes, to me, not something a virus can easily add a little base sequence to become resistant against. The factors of spring, greater UV, greater air humidity* to which sneezes attach and drop to the floor more quickly before the droplet evaporates. Anything spread by sneezes should be affected by that. I find it hard to see how spring will not be a factor.
* Some are quoting the lower humidity of spring. It is a bit counter intuitive, but the warmer air holds more water - the wet we have in winter, as gardeners know, sits there on the wet ground. Once the ground starts routinely drying between rains, that's what is going to slow things down.
"Under the Civil Contingencies Act, the government can close schools, shut down public transport and stop mass gatherings to protect the public."
"But all the evidence suggests those measures are not particularly effective at stopping the spread of something like coronavirus."
What evidence? The evidence is that it is about the only thing that WORKS.
Oh but this:
"Closing schools, for example, could disrupt exams and force parents to take time off work."
Absolute morons.
If schools close then both my wife and I couldn’t really work. We’d have to take childcare in shifts, and working from home would be out of the question.
So we’d either have to take unpaid leave or hope our companies took pity on us, and dozens of others.
Yes but would you rather 600,000 died or 200,000 died and you had to take shifts?
Comments
I can say that the number of RTA deaths in the UK in 2018 was 1,784.
It is realistic that the number of COVID-19 cases in the UK this year will be larger, but I have no idea how likely that is. There are simply too many unknowns, and we are right at the beginning of the curve. Personally I would be surprised if the number of deaths in the UK due to COVID-19 will be larger, which would imply that about 1 million people catch the virus.
A 7% Trump win would be the biggest win for a Republican in a presidential election since Bush Snr beat Dukakis in 1988
NEW THREAD
The case fatality rate will rise with the proportion of people catching it, so we need to do everything we can to stop people catching it in the first place.
Needless to say, Hancock is not impressing me at the moment. I'm sure he'll change tack soon when it becomes very serious. Hope it is not too late.
Big thing is the UK population needs educating on this rapidly. We need some leadership.
Now none of that need be true, but those appear to be the labels each has ended up with and people hate changing that view.
In a way it might be better if Starmer didnt quite win outright on the first preference, that way his support level looks even better as he gets into the 60s.
So we’d either have to take unpaid leave or hope our companies took pity on us, and dozens of others.
54% of white voters prefer Trump and 39% of whites prefer Sanders, Sanders gets 60% of blacks. Trump leads with other minorities 48% to 44%.
https://m.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2020/trump_thumps_sanders_in_head_to_head_matchup
1) Deaths to recovery ratio is not the same as mortality rate. (Eg Today HIV+ people have a low mortality rate but the recovery rate is as good as 0).
2) It is very dodgy to throw away 90% of the data, and just use 10% of the data).
3) Even is we ignore problems 1 and 2: When the number of infections is rapidly increasing, this is bound to be a biassed overestimate the stable rate. What is useful to us is the probability that "If I test positive tomorrow what is my death to recovery ratio?" We simply cannot ignore those who have been diagnosed but who will go on to recover when considering this.
Yes.
Some people are going to lose their minds if success starts to look likely for Trump. Will the guardian start another letter writing campaign again asking Midwest voters to vote Democrat ?
COVIDs transmissibility very likely implies both coughs and sneezes spread it and decent infection rates on contact. Coronavirusses do vary in how they survive on surfaces, dog hepatitis is more durable than already known human forms, but it is within a fairly narrow extent.
The breakdown of such viruses is done by physical processes, to me, not something a virus can easily add a little base sequence to become resistant against. The factors of spring, greater UV, greater air humidity* to which sneezes attach and drop to the floor more quickly before the droplet evaporates. Anything spread by sneezes should be affected by that. I find it hard to see how spring will not be a factor.
* Some are quoting the lower humidity of spring. It is a bit counter intuitive, but the warmer air holds more water - the wet we have in winter, as gardeners know, sits there on the wet ground. Once the ground starts routinely drying between rains, that's what is going to slow things down.