politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Almost all the front pages are about the virus
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Almost all the front pages are about the virus
This is probably the first big test for the Johnson government. How to handle the growing concern about the virus which is sweeping many parts of the world.
Comments
-
Run for your lives, flee.0
-
-
Second0
-
Don't Panic!!! Don't Panic!!!0
-
My second biggest concern is the Premier League is cancelled before Liverpool win the title.0
-
.. 五
edit: 六0 -
FPT
TGOHF666 said:
» show previous quotes
I doubt many in Govanhill are worried about corona virus.
more likely it would would improve their life chances0 -
Are you saying all this is Liverpool's fault...TheScreamingEagles said:My second biggest concern is the Premier League is cancelled before Liverpool win the title.
0 -
Agreed. Their last match of the season is against Burnley where the incredible run will come to an endTheScreamingEagles said:My second biggest concern is the Premier League is cancelled before Liverpool win the title.
0 -
Nah, but the trophy presentation in an empty Anfield would be mildly amusing.TheScreamingEagles said:My second biggest concern is the Premier League is cancelled before Liverpool win the title.
0 -
Wouldn't that be a laugh, Rangers fans will be praying , fingers and toes crossed , etc.TheScreamingEagles said:My second biggest concern is the Premier League is cancelled before Liverpool win the title.
0 -
16% would be a lot better than expected for Nandy. RLB is the anointed one, Starmer the 'acceptable to all' one and Nandy is the right wing one who criticised the party.OldKingCole said:On topic, having not long woken up and not having looked at PB last night, I'm somewhat surprised at Nandy being 3rd. Seems to have a lot more about her than Long-Bailey, but given the respective ages I reckon her time will come.
And yes, I've been following what's been happening, but thought that L-B wasn't doing as well as expected, and Nandy a lot better.
Now none of that need be true, but those appear to be the labels each has ended up with and people hate changing that view and Nandy has a low ceiling.
In a way it might be better if Starmer didnt quite win outright on the first preference, that way his support level looks even better as he gets into the 60s.
0 -
Usually everything is caused by a scouser one way or the othereek said:
Are you saying all this is Liverpool's fault...TheScreamingEagles said:My second biggest concern is the Premier League is cancelled before Liverpool win the title.
0 -
I've been told the NHS is in a crisis and is an administrative and organisational nightmare my entire adult life. Theres no way it can handle this if that's even half true.0
-
Weirdly, I feel more stoic the closer it gets. I was far more concerned when it was incubating and growing in China, which felt (if I’m totally honest) more abstract.
It’s almost a relief it’s finally here, which means that in 2-3 months it will have peaked and be on the decline.
It’s the waiting and uncertainty that’s intolerable.2 -
As I mentioned before, denial is a commonplace reaction to a crisis. Slowly people cotton on.
Panic? Well I'm not sure that ever really helps. But yes it's time to change gear on this.
This is serious. Probably extremely serious.
The FTSE is down 2.3% in early trading. The world economy is taking a huge hit already.
Eadric called this right. I've apologised to him for dissing his stance. Admitting when you're wrong is a hallmark of decency imho.
love to you all
x0 -
Mr. W, 4th/5th?0
-
I am reminded of Shackleton reaching Elephant Island in 1915 and asking what was the outcome of that silly little war which seemed to be brewing when he left...Casino_Royale said:Weirdly, I feel more stoic the closer it gets. I was far more concerned when it was incubating and growing in China, which felt (if I’m totally honest) more abstract.
It’s almost a relief it’s finally here, which means that in 2-3 months it will have peaked and be on the decline.
It’s the waiting and uncertainty that’s intolerable.1 -
People will be more relaxed when each individual person who comes down with the virus isn't making headline news, and something else captures the front pages. Then it'll seem more like an ordinary illness; the number of ordinary flu victims rarely makes the news, after all.Casino_Royale said:Weirdly, I feel more stoic the closer it gets. I was far more concerned when it was incubating and growing in China, which felt (if I’m totally honest) more abstract.
It’s almost a relief it’s finally here, which means that in 2-3 months it will have peaked and be on the decline.
It’s the waiting and uncertainty that’s intolerable.0 -
Eadric was actually quite late to the party here - I know forums where this was correctly called (with valid reasons why) back in late January.Mysticrose said:As I mentioned before, denial is a commonplace reaction to a crisis. Slowly people cotton on.
Panic? Well I'm not sure that ever really helps. But yes it's time to change gear on this.
This is serious. Probably extremely serious.
The FTSE is down 2.3% in early trading. The world economy is taking a huge hit already.
Eadric called this right. I've apologised to him for dissing his stance. Admitting when you're wrong is a hallmark of decency imho.
love to you all
x0 -
Telegraph:
"The Trump administration has cut funding for the US Center for Disease Control by 9pc. This month he proposed slashing it a further 16pc. The worst hit area has been pandemic preparation. The CDC’s global health security initiative has been chopped by 80pc, reducing country coverage from 49 to 10.
Mr Trump got rid of the US Complex Crises Fund. He shut down the pandemic and global health machinery at the White House, and fired the lot. "0 -
I wonder how sales of the Pandemic series of board games are doing at present. Even though it's not about disease perhaps I should not advise playing the excellent Pandemic: Fall of Rome at my next boardgame night.0
-
shi 是Morris_Dancer said:Mr. W, 4th/5th?
0 -
UK government plans for containing coronavirus and dealing with any outbreak
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/explainers-516328010 -
actually 5th/6thgeoffw said:
shi 是Morris_Dancer said:Mr. W, 4th/5th?
0 -
FPT
KLAXON KLAXON KLAXON dodgy statistics alert!eadric said:
“ If we now exclude cases in mainland China, using current data on deaths and recovered cases, we get:HYUFD said:
Mortality rate was 2% across China, 4% in Wuhan on that linkeadric said:
WE DON’T KNOW THE MORTALITY RATEHYUFD said:
Time to pray maybe if it was black death, which had a 40% death rate and even 80% in some villages or even Spanish flu with a 20% death rate. However of those affected by coronavirus 98% will survive. That is no different than the average survival rate for any kind of surgery.eadric said:We’ve always said the test of this virus would be what it did in a transparent, advanced country, open with data, that did lots of testing
South Korea is giving us a frightening answer. Our main hope now is that the mortality rate is lower than we expect. Or that Admiral Summertime is steering his navy our way. Time to pray.
Despite your hysterical overreactions to this slightly more deadly than normal flu outbreak, even Wuhan is starting to get back to normal with patients starting to return home from quarantine
It could be anything from 0.5% to a terrifying 15%
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/
56 / (56 + 310) = 15.3% CFR (outside of mainland China)”
1) Deaths to recovery ratio is not the same as mortality rate. (Eg Today HIV+ people have a low mortality rate but the recovery rate is as good as 0).
2) It is very dodgy to throw away 90% of the data, and just use 10% of the data).
3) Even is we ignore problems 1 and 2: When the number of infections is rapidly increasing, this is bound to be a biassed overestimate the stable rate. What is useful to us is the probability that "If I test positive tomorrow what is my death to recovery ratio?" We simply cannot ignore those who have been diagnosed but who will go on to recover when considering this.
2 -
As I pointed out yesterday once you get to the which part of - this caused that which .... most people have lost attention. It's also why people think terrorists are sophisticated and believe conspiracy theories as both bring order to random chaos.malcolmg said:
Usually everything is caused by a scouser one way or the othereek said:
Are you saying all this is Liverpool's fault...TheScreamingEagles said:My second biggest concern is the Premier League is cancelled before Liverpool win the title.
Blaming the virus of Liverpool could easily work - just need to create a simple but vaguely plausible conspiracy theory. It won't be any stupider than the 5G masts are a contributing factor theory I saw yesterday.0 -
Pandemic is one of the best cooperative board games out there.kle4 said:I wonder how sales of the Pandemic series of board games are doing at present. Even though it's not about disease perhaps I should not advise playing the excellent Pandemic: Fall of Rome at my next boardgame night.
1 -
Morning all and I have been diarising the Corona Virus development since the start of January when we first heard about it. As I am in the highest "at risk" category having barely survived AIDS and spending over 5 weeks in hospital with pneumonia, I raised the issue when I had a regular clinic appointment a fortnight ago. The upshot is that the hospital is arranging for my future medication to be delivered to my GP practice and if necessary they can bring it to the house if I have to effectively lock myself in from the outside world. Like others without the benefit of a publicly funded pension or one from a big company, I have also watched with dismay as all the growth in my pension fund over the past year has been wiped out over the past week! Happy days
0 -
People seem to forget, that having flu is still horrible. Better than death but still I'd rather avoid it.IanB2 said:
People will be more relaxed when each individual person who comes down with the virus isn't making headline news, and something else captures the front pages. Then it'll seem more like an ordinary illness; the number of ordinary flu victims rarely makes the news, after all.Casino_Royale said:Weirdly, I feel more stoic the closer it gets. I was far more concerned when it was incubating and growing in China, which felt (if I’m totally honest) more abstract.
It’s almost a relief it’s finally here, which means that in 2-3 months it will have peaked and be on the decline.
It’s the waiting and uncertainty that’s intolerable.0 -
eadric is being very silly.eristdoof said:FPT
KLAXON KLAXON KLAXON dodgy statistics alert!eadric said:
“ If we now exclude cases in mainland China, using current data on deaths and recovered cases, we get:HYUFD said:
Mortality rate was 2% across China, 4% in Wuhan on that linkeadric said:
WE DON’T KNOW THE MORTALITY RATEHYUFD said:
Time to pray maybe if it was black death, which had a 40% death rate and even 80% in some villages or even Spanish flu with a 20% death rate. However of those affected by coronavirus 98% will survive. That is no different than the average survival rate for any kind of surgery.eadric said:We’ve always said the test of this virus would be what it did in a transparent, advanced country, open with data, that did lots of testing
South Korea is giving us a frightening answer. Our main hope now is that the mortality rate is lower than we expect. Or that Admiral Summertime is steering his navy our way. Time to pray.
Despite your hysterical overreactions to this slightly more deadly than normal flu outbreak, even Wuhan is starting to get back to normal with patients starting to return home from quarantine
It could be anything from 0.5% to a terrifying 15%
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/
56 / (56 + 310) = 15.3% CFR (outside of mainland China)”
1) Deaths to recovery ratio is not the same as mortality rate. (Eg Today HIV+ people have a low mortality rate but the recovery rate is as good as 0).
2) It is very dodgy to throw away 90% of the data, and just use 10% of the data).
3) Even is we ignore problems 1 and 2: When the number of infections is rapidly increasing, this is bound to be a biassed overestimate the stable rate. What is useful to us is the probability that "If I test positive tomorrow what is my death to recovery ratio?" We simply cannot ignore those who have been diagnosed but who will go on to recover when considering this.
The likely mortality rate is somewhere below 2% - and we'll have a pretty good idea with another two or three weeks of data from South Korea, which has been pretty scrupulous about releasing accurate information.0 -
AEP in Telegraph. Trump's anti-science obsessions about to be exposed by virus, Sanders could well win:
"What are the Dow index and the S&P 500 worth in a global economy facing - potentially - the worst ‘sudden stop’ since August 1914, and a new America led by a President Sanders with a mandate for socialist upheaval? Let’s be generous and say about half of current levels."0 -
Ok. But the evidence we’ve seen so far is that it grows very quickly, peaks with serious containment measures, stabilises and then there is a slow decline. It first grew off in December, so 2-3 months seems about right to me. Sure, that means many people will get seriously ill, and some sadly won’t pull through, but it’s not going to decimate humanity.IshmaelZ said:
I am reminded of Shackleton reaching Elephant Island in 1915 and asking what was the outcome of that silly little war which seemed to be brewing when he left...Casino_Royale said:Weirdly, I feel more stoic the closer it gets. I was far more concerned when it was incubating and growing in China, which felt (if I’m totally honest) more abstract.
It’s almost a relief it’s finally here, which means that in 2-3 months it will have peaked and be on the decline.
It’s the waiting and uncertainty that’s intolerable.
So, we need to ask ourselves, what good comes from catastrophising it? The drama? The adrenaline? Do we like the buzz? Do we get a kick out of panicking others?
I don’t think it helps. I’ll be limiting my commute to London to critical meetings only (one or two days a week) wearing gloves and a face & eye mask for that, avoiding the tube, and just keeping my fingers crossed (a) the schools stay open and (b) my family don’t get it. If they do I’ll be very worried, of course, and I’ll deal with it as best I can.
That’s all you can do. I’m calm.0 -
The press are shifting chip wrap off the back of the outbreak.0
-
Trump's an arse but he can throw billions at it now or tomorrow or next week. Better reasons to sell are the market is underpricing the Democrats because of some imagined aversion to old white cranks.rottenborough said:Telegraph:
"The Trump administration has cut funding for the US Center for Disease Control by 9pc. This month he proposed slashing it a further 16pc. The worst hit area has been pandemic preparation. The CDC’s global health security initiative has been chopped by 80pc, reducing country coverage from 49 to 10.
Mr Trump got rid of the US Complex Crises Fund. He shut down the pandemic and global health machinery at the White House, and fired the lot. "0 -
While Starmer gets 57% of the vote from Labour members who voted Remain he gets only 37% from Labour members who voted Leave, Long Bailey gets 45% from Labour members who voted Leave but only 28% from Labour members who voted Remain, Nandy gets 15% from Labour members who voted Remain but 18% from Labour members who voted Leavekle4 said:
16% would be a lot better than expected for Nandy. RLB is the anointed one, Starmer the 'acceptable to all' one and Nandy is the right wing one who criticised the party.OldKingCole said:On topic, having not long woken up and not having looked at PB last night, I'm somewhat surprised at Nandy being 3rd. Seems to have a lot more about her than Long-Bailey, but given the respective ages I reckon her time will come.
And yes, I've been following what's been happening, but thought that L-B wasn't doing as well as expected, and Nandy a lot better.
Now none of that need be true, but those appear to be the labels each has ended up with and people hate changing that view and Nandy has a low ceiling.
In a way it might be better if Starmer didnt quite win outright on the first preference, that way his support level looks even better as he gets into the 60s.
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2020/02/26/keir-starmer-holds-his-commanding-lead-battle-labo0 -
Eadric is a super-spreader.eek said:
Eadric was actually quite late to the party here - I know forums where this was correctly called (with valid reasons why) back in late January.Mysticrose said:As I mentioned before, denial is a commonplace reaction to a crisis. Slowly people cotton on.
Panic? Well I'm not sure that ever really helps. But yes it's time to change gear on this.
This is serious. Probably extremely serious.
The FTSE is down 2.3% in early trading. The world economy is taking a huge hit already.
Eadric called this right. I've apologised to him for dissing his stance. Admitting when you're wrong is a hallmark of decency imho.
love to you all
x
Of panic.
It’s not that he’s “wrong” (or right, for that matter) - lots of people were pointing out the virus was spreading - it was *how* he did it, which was very dramatic. Full mental breakdown in the trenches “oh my God, we’re all going to die!” stuff.
I don’t think that helps anyone.
Hopefully, it’s just a phase, but there’s a reason such people are quickly bundled off to the rear during wars.1 -
It's utterly bizarre that Nandy is seen as right wing, even in Labour terms. There is no way that she can be described as that. I would say she is from exactly the same part of the party as Starmer. The only significant difference between them is Brexit - and that will fade as an issue.kle4 said:
16% would be a lot better than expected for Nandy. RLB is the anointed one, Starmer the 'acceptable to all' one and Nandy is the right wing one who criticised the party.OldKingCole said:On topic, having not long woken up and not having looked at PB last night, I'm somewhat surprised at Nandy being 3rd. Seems to have a lot more about her than Long-Bailey, but given the respective ages I reckon her time will come.
And yes, I've been following what's been happening, but thought that L-B wasn't doing as well as expected, and Nandy a lot better.
Now none of that need be true, but those appear to be the labels each has ended up with and people hate changing that view and Nandy has a low ceiling.
In a way it might be better if Starmer didnt quite win outright on the first preference, that way his support level looks even better as he gets into the 60s.
0 -
Surely it's that she joined the chicken coup and he didn't?SouthamObserver said:
It's utterly bizarre that Nandy is seen as right wing, even in Labour terms. There is no way that she can be described as that. I would say she is from exactly the same part of the party as Starmer. The only significant difference between them is Brexit - and that will fade as an issue.kle4 said:
16% would be a lot better than expected for Nandy. RLB is the anointed one, Starmer the 'acceptable to all' one and Nandy is the right wing one who criticised the party.OldKingCole said:On topic, having not long woken up and not having looked at PB last night, I'm somewhat surprised at Nandy being 3rd. Seems to have a lot more about her than Long-Bailey, but given the respective ages I reckon her time will come.
And yes, I've been following what's been happening, but thought that L-B wasn't doing as well as expected, and Nandy a lot better.
Now none of that need be true, but those appear to be the labels each has ended up with and people hate changing that view and Nandy has a low ceiling.
In a way it might be better if Starmer didnt quite win outright on the first preference, that way his support level looks even better as he gets into the 60s.0 -
so right wing she would get rid of the monarchy...SouthamObserver said:
It's utterly bizarre that Nandy is seen as right wing, even in Labour terms. There is no way that she can be described as that. I would say she is from exactly the same part of the party as Starmer. The only significant difference between them is Brexit - and that will fade as an issue.kle4 said:
16% would be a lot better than expected for Nandy. RLB is the anointed one, Starmer the 'acceptable to all' one and Nandy is the right wing one who criticised the party.OldKingCole said:On topic, having not long woken up and not having looked at PB last night, I'm somewhat surprised at Nandy being 3rd. Seems to have a lot more about her than Long-Bailey, but given the respective ages I reckon her time will come.
And yes, I've been following what's been happening, but thought that L-B wasn't doing as well as expected, and Nandy a lot better.
Now none of that need be true, but those appear to be the labels each has ended up with and people hate changing that view and Nandy has a low ceiling.
In a way it might be better if Starmer didnt quite win outright on the first preference, that way his support level looks even better as he gets into the 60s.1 -
There is a genuine problem that people who take epidemics seriously are chucked into the same "panicking" barrel as others who are deliberately scaremongering by cherry picking and reporting the worst case scenarios as the likely scenarios.Mysticrose said:As I mentioned before, denial is a commonplace reaction to a crisis. Slowly people cotton on.
Panic? Well I'm not sure that ever really helps. But yes it's time to change gear on this.
This is serious. Probably extremely serious.
It is the same with climate change.2 -
Age profile has to be taken into account. What % of over 70s?Nigelb said:
eadric is being very silly.eristdoof said:FPT
KLAXON KLAXON KLAXON dodgy statistics alert!eadric said:
“ If we now exclude cases in mainland China, using current data on deaths and recovered cases, we get:HYUFD said:
Mortality rate was 2% across China, 4% in Wuhan on that linkeadric said:
WE DON’T KNOW THE MORTALITY RATEHYUFD said:
Time to pray maybe if it was black death, which had a 40% death rate and even 80% in some villages or even Spanish flu with a 20% death rate. However of those affected by coronavirus 98% will survive. That is no different than the average survival rate for any kind of surgery.eadric said:We’ve always said the test of this virus would be what it did in a transparent, advanced country, open with data, that did lots of testing
South Korea is giving us a frightening answer. Our main hope now is that the mortality rate is lower than we expect. Or that Admiral Summertime is steering his navy our way. Time to pray.
Despite your hysterical overreactions to this slightly more deadly than normal flu outbreak, even Wuhan is starting to get back to normal with patients starting to return home from quarantine
It could be anything from 0.5% to a terrifying 15%
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/
56 / (56 + 310) = 15.3% CFR (outside of mainland China)”
1) Deaths to recovery ratio is not the same as mortality rate. (Eg Today HIV+ people have a low mortality rate but the recovery rate is as good as 0).
2) It is very dodgy to throw away 90% of the data, and just use 10% of the data).
3) Even is we ignore problems 1 and 2: When the number of infections is rapidly increasing, this is bound to be a biassed overestimate the stable rate. What is useful to us is the probability that "If I test positive tomorrow what is my death to recovery ratio?" We simply cannot ignore those who have been diagnosed but who will go on to recover when considering this.
The likely mortality rate is somewhere below 2% - and we'll have a pretty good idea with another two or three weeks of data from South Korea, which has been pretty scrupulous about releasing accurate information.0 -
Yes, that and personal anecdotes of those they know who’ve experienced it (hopefully, generally mild) and gone through it will help remove some of the fear.IanB2 said:
People will be more relaxed when each individual person who comes down with the virus isn't making headline news, and something else captures the front pages. Then it'll seem more like an ordinary illness; the number of ordinary flu victims rarely makes the news, after all.Casino_Royale said:Weirdly, I feel more stoic the closer it gets. I was far more concerned when it was incubating and growing in China, which felt (if I’m totally honest) more abstract.
It’s almost a relief it’s finally here, which means that in 2-3 months it will have peaked and be on the decline.
It’s the waiting and uncertainty that’s intolerable.0 -
So Starmer is the most popular candidate for Labour leavers. More than twice as popular as Nandy. Interesting.HYUFD said:
While Starmer gets 57% of the vote from Labour members who voted Remain he gets only 37% from Labour members who voted Leave, Long Bailey gets 45% from Labour members who voted Leave but only 28% from Labour members who voted Remain, Nandy gets 15% from Labour members who voted Remain but 18% from Labour members who voted Leavekle4 said:
16% would be a lot better than expected for Nandy. RLB is the anointed one, Starmer the 'acceptable to all' one and Nandy is the right wing one who criticised the party.OldKingCole said:On topic, having not long woken up and not having looked at PB last night, I'm somewhat surprised at Nandy being 3rd. Seems to have a lot more about her than Long-Bailey, but given the respective ages I reckon her time will come.
And yes, I've been following what's been happening, but thought that L-B wasn't doing as well as expected, and Nandy a lot better.
Now none of that need be true, but those appear to be the labels each has ended up with and people hate changing that view and Nandy has a low ceiling.
In a way it might be better if Starmer didnt quite win outright on the first preference, that way his support level looks even better as he gets into the 60s.
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2020/02/26/keir-starmer-holds-his-commanding-lead-battle-labo
0 -
Don't worry, he'll go back to modelling underwear in Greece soon enough.Casino_Royale said:
Eadric is a super-spreader.eek said:
Eadric was actually quite late to the party here - I know forums where this was correctly called (with valid reasons why) back in late January.Mysticrose said:As I mentioned before, denial is a commonplace reaction to a crisis. Slowly people cotton on.
Panic? Well I'm not sure that ever really helps. But yes it's time to change gear on this.
This is serious. Probably extremely serious.
The FTSE is down 2.3% in early trading. The world economy is taking a huge hit already.
Eadric called this right. I've apologised to him for dissing his stance. Admitting when you're wrong is a hallmark of decency imho.
love to you all
x
Of panic.
It’s not that he’s “wrong” (or right, for that matter) - lots of people were pointing out the virus was spreading - it was *how* he did it, which was very dramatic. Full mental breakdown in the trenches “oh my God, we’re all going to die!” stuff.
I don’t think that helps anyone.
Hopefully, it’s just a phase, but there’s a reason such people are quickly bundled off to the rear during wars.
1 -
Nandy is anti monarchy and anti Trident, on those issues she is left of Starmer and Long Bailey.SouthamObserver said:
It's utterly bizarre that Nandy is seen as right wing, even in Labour terms. There is no way that she can be described as that. I would say she is from exactly the same part of the party as Starmer. The only significant difference between them is Brexit - and that will fade as an issue.kle4 said:
16% would be a lot better than expected for Nandy. RLB is the anointed one, Starmer the 'acceptable to all' one and Nandy is the right wing one who criticised the party.OldKingCole said:On topic, having not long woken up and not having looked at PB last night, I'm somewhat surprised at Nandy being 3rd. Seems to have a lot more about her than Long-Bailey, but given the respective ages I reckon her time will come.
And yes, I've been following what's been happening, but thought that L-B wasn't doing as well as expected, and Nandy a lot better.
Now none of that need be true, but those appear to be the labels each has ended up with and people hate changing that view and Nandy has a low ceiling.
In a way it might be better if Starmer didnt quite win outright on the first preference, that way his support level looks even better as he gets into the 60s.
The main difference is she would stick with the Corbyn Brexit plan as would Long Bailey but Starmer would commit to full single market alignment and return the UK to the EEA0 -
And what proportion of Labour Party members voted Leave. I seem to remember it was around 20%.HYUFD said:
While Starmer gets 57% of the vote from Labour members who voted Remain he gets only 37% from Labour members who voted Leave, Long Bailey gets 45% from Labour members who voted Leave but only 28% from Labour members who voted Remain, Nandy gets 15% from Labour members who voted Remain but 18% from Labour members who voted Leavekle4 said:
16% would be a lot better than expected for Nandy. RLB is the anointed one, Starmer the 'acceptable to all' one and Nandy is the right wing one who criticised the party.OldKingCole said:On topic, having not long woken up and not having looked at PB last night, I'm somewhat surprised at Nandy being 3rd. Seems to have a lot more about her than Long-Bailey, but given the respective ages I reckon her time will come.
And yes, I've been following what's been happening, but thought that L-B wasn't doing as well as expected, and Nandy a lot better.
Now none of that need be true, but those appear to be the labels each has ended up with and people hate changing that view and Nandy has a low ceiling.
In a way it might be better if Starmer didnt quite win outright on the first preference, that way his support level looks even better as he gets into the 60s.
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2020/02/26/keir-starmer-holds-his-commanding-lead-battle-labo0 -
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1232854771507367936?s=20rottenborough said:AEP in Telegraph. Trump's anti-science obsessions about to be exposed by virus, Sanders could well win:
"What are the Dow index and the S&P 500 worth in a global economy facing - potentially - the worst ‘sudden stop’ since August 1914, and a new America led by a President Sanders with a mandate for socialist upheaval? Let’s be generous and say about half of current levels."0 -
It's almost like Eadric writes suspense, thriller and disaster stories for a livingCasino_Royale said:
Eadric is a super-spreader.eek said:
Eadric was actually quite late to the party here - I know forums where this was correctly called (with valid reasons why) back in late January.Mysticrose said:As I mentioned before, denial is a commonplace reaction to a crisis. Slowly people cotton on.
Panic? Well I'm not sure that ever really helps. But yes it's time to change gear on this.
This is serious. Probably extremely serious.
The FTSE is down 2.3% in early trading. The world economy is taking a huge hit already.
Eadric called this right. I've apologised to him for dissing his stance. Admitting when you're wrong is a hallmark of decency imho.
love to you all
x
Of panic.
It’s not that he’s “wrong” (or right, for that matter) - lots of people were pointing out the virus was spreading - it was *how* he did it, which was very dramatic. Full mental breakdown in the trenches “oh my God, we’re all going to die!” stuff.
I don’t think that helps anyone.
Hopefully, it’s just a phase, but there’s a reason such people are quickly bundled off to the rear during wars.3 -
Sean has managed to flop about whilst remaining in a state of constant panic, one minute pronouncing that a chunk of us is going to die whatever we do so we may as well act normally and wait for the inevitable doom, the next minute advocating a variety of irrational responses.0
-
I doubt Starmer will do that. There is no point. It will be something to look at much closer to an election.HYUFD said:
Nandy is anti monarchy and anti Trident, on those issues she is left of Starmer and Long Bailey.SouthamObserver said:
It's utterly bizarre that Nandy is seen as right wing, even in Labour terms. There is no way that she can be described as that. I would say she is from exactly the same part of the party as Starmer. The only significant difference between them is Brexit - and that will fade as an issue.kle4 said:
16% would be a lot better than expected for Nandy. RLB is the anointed one, Starmer the 'acceptable to all' one and Nandy is the right wing one who criticised the party.OldKingCole said:On topic, having not long woken up and not having looked at PB last night, I'm somewhat surprised at Nandy being 3rd. Seems to have a lot more about her than Long-Bailey, but given the respective ages I reckon her time will come.
And yes, I've been following what's been happening, but thought that L-B wasn't doing as well as expected, and Nandy a lot better.
Now none of that need be true, but those appear to be the labels each has ended up with and people hate changing that view and Nandy has a low ceiling.
In a way it might be better if Starmer didnt quite win outright on the first preference, that way his support level looks even better as he gets into the 60s.
The main difference is she would stick with the Corbyn Brexit plan as would Long Bailey but Starmer would commit to full single market alignment and return the UK to the EEA
0 -
QTWAIN.
This is serious and needs to be taken seriously but that doesn't mean panic. Panic doesn't lead to rational thinking. Make sure you're following best hygiene practices and think about how or where you travel. That's about all we can do unless we are on the frontline.0 -
True, but we don't cancel holidays, stock up on canned food and lock the door to avoid it.eristdoof said:
People seem to forget, that having flu is still horrible. Better than death but still I'd rather avoid it.IanB2 said:
People will be more relaxed when each individual person who comes down with the virus isn't making headline news, and something else captures the front pages. Then it'll seem more like an ordinary illness; the number of ordinary flu victims rarely makes the news, after all.Casino_Royale said:Weirdly, I feel more stoic the closer it gets. I was far more concerned when it was incubating and growing in China, which felt (if I’m totally honest) more abstract.
It’s almost a relief it’s finally here, which means that in 2-3 months it will have peaked and be on the decline.
It’s the waiting and uncertainty that’s intolerable.0 -
If the Premier League is cancelled today, then Liverpool will have won the title.TheScreamingEagles said:My second biggest concern is the Premier League is cancelled before Liverpool win the title.
0 -
Any advice on where to buy facemasks? What type?0
-
Following my typical AEP logic, Lay Sanders as he hasn't got a chance. AEP usually gets the middle bits right but has his conclusion ever occurred.rottenborough said:AEP in Telegraph. Trump's anti-science obsessions about to be exposed by virus, Sanders could well win:
"What are the Dow index and the S&P 500 worth in a global economy facing - potentially - the worst ‘sudden stop’ since August 1914, and a new America led by a President Sanders with a mandate for socialist upheaval? Let’s be generous and say about half of current levels."
1 -
Starmer also resigned from the shadow front bench and backed Owen Smith.IanB2 said:
Surely it's that she joined the chicken coup and he didn't?SouthamObserver said:
It's utterly bizarre that Nandy is seen as right wing, even in Labour terms. There is no way that she can be described as that. I would say she is from exactly the same part of the party as Starmer. The only significant difference between them is Brexit - and that will fade as an issue.kle4 said:
16% would be a lot better than expected for Nandy. RLB is the anointed one, Starmer the 'acceptable to all' one and Nandy is the right wing one who criticised the party.OldKingCole said:On topic, having not long woken up and not having looked at PB last night, I'm somewhat surprised at Nandy being 3rd. Seems to have a lot more about her than Long-Bailey, but given the respective ages I reckon her time will come.
And yes, I've been following what's been happening, but thought that L-B wasn't doing as well as expected, and Nandy a lot better.
Now none of that need be true, but those appear to be the labels each has ended up with and people hate changing that view and Nandy has a low ceiling.
In a way it might be better if Starmer didnt quite win outright on the first preference, that way his support level looks even better as he gets into the 60s.
0 -
Just under 20% of Labour members voted Leave according to Yougov, over 80% of Labour members voted Remain but it does tie in with the Ipsos Mori poll that Starmer has a net positive rating with Remainers but a net negative rating with Leavers (the reverse of Boris).eristdoof said:
And what proportion of Labour Party members voted Leave. I seem to remember it was around 20%.HYUFD said:
While Starmer gets 57% of the vote from Labour members who voted Remain he gets only 37% from Labour members who voted Leave, Long Bailey gets 45% from Labour members who voted Leave but only 28% from Labour members who voted Remain, Nandy gets 15% from Labour members who voted Remain but 18% from Labour members who voted Leavekle4 said:
16% would be a lot better than expected for Nandy. RLB is the anointed one, Starmer the 'acceptable to all' one and Nandy is the right wing one who criticised the party.OldKingCole said:On topic, having not long woken up and not having looked at PB last night, I'm somewhat surprised at Nandy being 3rd. Seems to have a lot more about her than Long-Bailey, but given the respective ages I reckon her time will come.
And yes, I've been following what's been happening, but thought that L-B wasn't doing as well as expected, and Nandy a lot better.
Now none of that need be true, but those appear to be the labels each has ended up with and people hate changing that view and Nandy has a low ceiling.
In a way it might be better if Starmer didnt quite win outright on the first preference, that way his support level looks even better as he gets into the 60s.
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2020/02/26/keir-starmer-holds-his-commanding-lead-battle-labo
That would still be better than Corbyn who had a net negative rating with both Remainers and Leavers0 -
As someone in a high risk category I am somewhat relaxed about the virus.
I think Eadric has been somewhat over the top but to be fair he has kept it as a major debating issue on this forum and we are all entitled to our opinions
It does look as if many sporting events are going to be cancelled and large gatherings, especially in transport hubs, looks worrying and certainly the cruise industry is facing serious loses
We fly to Vancouver in May and flying is of considerable concern but we can only follow FO advice. We are fortunate to be retired so will not be effected work wise.
However, life will carry on, even if subject to some unusual restrictions, but the financial markets look very vulnerable1 -
That’s quite reassuring actually.HYUFD said:UK government plans for containing coronavirus and dealing with any outbreak
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/explainers-51632801
The UK is a very well organised country.
It also helps that we don’t live and socialise in quite the same way here. We’re not hugely communitarian: most Brits limit themselves to the workplace or pubs & clubs outside of work, which can simply be suspended if needed.
So I’d expect people would limit themselves to immediate family plus essential work only.1 -
I can't see that that is true. All the evidence so far has been dodgy because it comes from China and I think he has tried to caveat for that all along. His advice to sell equities 3 weeks ago was undoubtedly the most profitable (or rather loss-averting, for those of us who don't understand this shorting lark) tip in the history of the forum.IanB2 said:Sean has managed to flop about whilst remaining in a state of constant panic, one minute pronouncing that a chunk of us is going to die whatever we do so we may as well act normally and wait for the inevitable doom, the next minute advocating a variety of irrational responses.
0 -
Plus more flexible working and working at homeCasino_Royale said:
That’s quite reassuring actually.HYUFD said:UK government plans for containing coronavirus and dealing with any outbreak
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/explainers-51632801
The UK is a very well organised country.
It also helps that we don’t live and socialise in quite the same way here. We’re not hugely communitarian: most Brits limit themselves to the workplace or pubs & clubs outside of work, which can simply be suspended if needed.
So I’d expect people would limit themselves to immediate family plus essential work only.0 -
NHS medical staff say this because they want resent the administrators having so much control.kle4 said:I've been told the NHS is in a crisis and is an administrative and organisational nightmare my entire adult life. Theres no way it can handle this if that's even half true.
The NHS administrators claim this so they can pressure the government for more money.
The press and Tories say this because they don't like large nationalised institutions.2 -
Mr. W, cheers.
I think some here are forgetting that the best forecaster was clearly me, with my bet on Hamilton scoring at under 21 races this season based on disruption caused by the virus.
0 -
Not in the 21st C. British forces. They just get given massive amounts of drugs.Casino_Royale said:
Hopefully, it’s just a phase, but there’s a reason such people are quickly bundled off to the rear during wars.0 -
If Starmer became PM there is no doubt we would be back in the single marketSouthamObserver said:
I doubt Starmer will do that. There is no point. It will be something to look at much closer to an election.HYUFD said:
Nandy is anti monarchy and anti Trident, on those issues she is left of Starmer and Long Bailey.SouthamObserver said:
It's utterly bizarre that Nandy is seen as right wing, even in Labour terms. There is no way that she can be described as that. I would say she is from exactly the same part of the party as Starmer. The only significant difference between them is Brexit - and that will fade as an issue.kle4 said:
16% would be a lot better than expected for Nandy. RLB is the anointed one, Starmer the 'acceptable to all' one and Nandy is the right wing one who criticised the party.OldKingCole said:On topic, having not long woken up and not having looked at PB last night, I'm somewhat surprised at Nandy being 3rd. Seems to have a lot more about her than Long-Bailey, but given the respective ages I reckon her time will come.
And yes, I've been following what's been happening, but thought that L-B wasn't doing as well as expected, and Nandy a lot better.
Now none of that need be true, but those appear to be the labels each has ended up with and people hate changing that view and Nandy has a low ceiling.
In a way it might be better if Starmer didnt quite win outright on the first preference, that way his support level looks even better as he gets into the 60s.
The main difference is she would stick with the Corbyn Brexit plan as would Long Bailey but Starmer would commit to full single market alignment and return the UK to the EEA0 -
The BBC comes into its own when things get serious. It's a good, simple explainer.Casino_Royale said:
That’s quite reassuring actually.HYUFD said:UK government plans for containing coronavirus and dealing with any outbreak
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/explainers-51632801
The UK is a very well organised country.
It also helps that we don’t live and socialise in quite the same way here. We’re not hugely communitarian: most Brits limit themselves to the workplace or pubs & clubs outside of work, which can simply be suspended if needed.
So I’d expect people would limit themselves to immediate family plus essential work only.
You really cannot rely on the press for the facts.0 -
Therefore if you are under 70 you have sod all to worry about unless you are already almost a basket case, over 70 you have concerns especially if you are almost a basket case in any event.rottenborough said:
Age profile has to be taken into account. What % of over 70s?Nigelb said:
eadric is being very silly.eristdoof said:FPT
KLAXON KLAXON KLAXON dodgy statistics alert!eadric said:
“ If we now exclude cases in mainland China, using current data on deaths and recovered cases, we get:HYUFD said:
Mortality rate was 2% across China, 4% in Wuhan on that linkeadric said:
WE DON’T KNOW THE MORTALITY RATEHYUFD said:
Time to pray maybe if it was black death, which had a 40% death rate and even 80% in some villages or even Spanish flu with a 20% death rate. However of those affected by coronavirus 98% will survive. That is no different than the average survival rate for any kind of surgery.eadric said:We’ve always said the test of this virus would be what it did in a transparent, advanced country, open with data, that did lots of testing
South Korea is giving us a frightening answer. Our main hope now is that the mortality rate is lower than we expect. Or that Admiral Summertime is steering his navy our way. Time to pray.
Despite your hysterical overreactions to this slightly more deadly than normal flu outbreak, even Wuhan is starting to get back to normal with patients starting to return home from quarantine
It could be anything from 0.5% to a terrifying 15%
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/
56 / (56 + 310) = 15.3% CFR (outside of mainland China)”
1) Deaths to recovery ratio is not the same as mortality rate. (Eg Today HIV+ people have a low mortality rate but the recovery rate is as good as 0).
2) It is very dodgy to throw away 90% of the data, and just use 10% of the data).
3) Even is we ignore problems 1 and 2: When the number of infections is rapidly increasing, this is bound to be a biassed overestimate the stable rate. What is useful to us is the probability that "If I test positive tomorrow what is my death to recovery ratio?" We simply cannot ignore those who have been diagnosed but who will go on to recover when considering this.
The likely mortality rate is somewhere below 2% - and we'll have a pretty good idea with another two or three weeks of data from South Korea, which has been pretty scrupulous about releasing accurate information.
Pathetic scaremongering by effete halfwitted creatures.1 -
I would have thought you are in a lowish risk category for catching the virus, but high risk category for death if you do catch it.Big_G_NorthWales said:As someone in a high risk category I am somewhat relaxed about the virus.
I would not recommend taking another cruise in the next two months though!
0 -
No, Long Bailey is the most popular candidate for Labour Leavers, indeed Long Bailey would beat Starmer 51% to 49% if only Labour members who voted Leave voted.Jonathan said:
So Starmer is the most popular candidate for Labour leavers. More than twice as popular as Nandy. Interesting.HYUFD said:
While Starmer gets 57% of the vote from Labour members who voted Remain he gets only 37% from Labour members who voted Leave, Long Bailey gets 45% from Labour members who voted Leave but only 28% from Labour members who voted Remain, Nandy gets 15% from Labour members who voted Remain but 18% from Labour members who voted Leavekle4 said:
16% would be a lot better than expected for Nandy. RLB is the anointed one, Starmer the 'acceptable to all' one and Nandy is the right wing one who criticised the party.OldKingCole said:On topic, having not long woken up and not having looked at PB last night, I'm somewhat surprised at Nandy being 3rd. Seems to have a lot more about her than Long-Bailey, but given the respective ages I reckon her time will come.
And yes, I've been following what's been happening, but thought that L-B wasn't doing as well as expected, and Nandy a lot better.
Now none of that need be true, but those appear to be the labels each has ended up with and people hate changing that view and Nandy has a low ceiling.
In a way it might be better if Starmer didnt quite win outright on the first preference, that way his support level looks even better as he gets into the 60s.
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2020/02/26/keir-starmer-holds-his-commanding-lead-battle-labo
Starmer trounces Long Bailey 69% to 31% with Labour members who voted Remain though0 -
I'm going with a medieval plague doctor rig in order not instill panic in my fellow citizens.rottenborough said:Any advice on where to buy facemasks? What type?
1 -
I presume its just because if one person is seen as the left wing candidate it is assumed others must be right wing, when its quite possible to have a race with very little meaningful difference in policy terms.SouthamObserver said:
It's utterly bizarre that Nandy is seen as right wing, even in Labour terms. There is no way that she can be described as that. I would say she is from exactly the same part of the party as Starmer. The only significant difference between them is Brexit - and that will fade as an issue.kle4 said:
16% would be a lot better than expected for Nandy. RLB is the anointed one, Starmer the 'acceptable to all' one and Nandy is the right wing one who criticised the party.OldKingCole said:On topic, having not long woken up and not having looked at PB last night, I'm somewhat surprised at Nandy being 3rd. Seems to have a lot more about her than Long-Bailey, but given the respective ages I reckon her time will come.
And yes, I've been following what's been happening, but thought that L-B wasn't doing as well as expected, and Nandy a lot better.
Now none of that need be true, but those appear to be the labels each has ended up with and people hate changing that view and Nandy has a low ceiling.
In a way it might be better if Starmer didnt quite win outright on the first preference, that way his support level looks even better as he gets into the 60s.0 -
Now would be a good time to bury a Hard Brexit.
Corona Virus prognosis in the UK. Hubei Province has approximately the same population as the UK. So far there have been ca 2500 deaths (I don't have the break out of the Hubei versus all China figure). Deaths, which are obviously a trailing indicator, are declining rapidly.
This suggests to me a plausible final death toll in the UK of low thousands with the following observations:- Coronavirus took Hubei by surprise. We should be better prepared.
- The healthcare system in China is more fragmented than in the UK.
- The death toll may pick up again in Hubei after an abeyance.
- Hubei is massively locked down now, after the initial weak response
0 - Coronavirus took Hubei by surprise. We should be better prepared.
-
LOLDura_Ace said:
I'm going with a medieval plague doctor rig in order not instill panic in my fellow citizens.rottenborough said:Any advice on where to buy facemasks? What type?
0 -
Indeed.
3 -
Very well put. And to be honest we have already hung up our cruise cards irrespective of covid 19eristdoof said:
I would have thought you are in a lowish risk category for catching the virus, but high risk category for death if you do catch it.Big_G_NorthWales said:As someone in a high risk category I am somewhat relaxed about the virus.
I would not recommend taking another cruise in the next two months though!0 -
The BBC is a crap state propaganda unit, you cannot believe a word that comes out of itJonathan said:
The BBC comes into its own when things get serious. It's a good, simple explainer.Casino_Royale said:
That’s quite reassuring actually.HYUFD said:UK government plans for containing coronavirus and dealing with any outbreak
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/explainers-51632801
The UK is a very well organised country.
It also helps that we don’t live and socialise in quite the same way here. We’re not hugely communitarian: most Brits limit themselves to the workplace or pubs & clubs outside of work, which can simply be suspended if needed.
So I’d expect people would limit themselves to immediate family plus essential work only.
You really cannot rely on the press for the facts.0 -
As near as damn it, yes. But that is for 2023/24, not now.HYUFD said:
If Starmer became PM there is no doubt we would be back in the single marketSouthamObserver said:
I doubt Starmer will do that. There is no point. It will be something to look at much closer to an election.HYUFD said:
Nandy is anti monarchy and anti Trident, on those issues she is left of Starmer and Long Bailey.SouthamObserver said:
It's utterly bizarre that Nandy is seen as right wing, even in Labour terms. There is no way that she can be described as that. I would say she is from exactly the same part of the party as Starmer. The only significant difference between them is Brexit - and that will fade as an issue.kle4 said:
16% would be a lot better than expected for Nandy. RLB is the anointed one, Starmer the 'acceptable to all' one and Nandy is the right wing one who criticised the party.OldKingCole said:On topic, having not long woken up and not having looked at PB last night, I'm somewhat surprised at Nandy being 3rd. Seems to have a lot more about her than Long-Bailey, but given the respective ages I reckon her time will come.
And yes, I've been following what's been happening, but thought that L-B wasn't doing as well as expected, and Nandy a lot better.
Now none of that need be true, but those appear to be the labels each has ended up with and people hate changing that view and Nandy has a low ceiling.
In a way it might be better if Starmer didnt quite win outright on the first preference, that way his support level looks even better as he gets into the 60s.
The main difference is she would stick with the Corbyn Brexit plan as would Long Bailey but Starmer would commit to full single market alignment and return the UK to the EEA
0 -
Isn’t that what passes for an S&M kit in the Royal Navy?Dura_Ace said:
I'm going with a medieval plague doctor rig in order not instill panic in my fellow citizens.rottenborough said:Any advice on where to buy facemasks? What type?
0 -
True, but we do vaccinate a significant proportion of the population against flu, so it's not as if we ignore it as a risk.IanB2 said:
True, but we don't cancel holidays, stock up on canned food and lock the door to avoid it.eristdoof said:
People seem to forget, that having flu is still horrible. Better than death but still I'd rather avoid it.IanB2 said:
People will be more relaxed when each individual person who comes down with the virus isn't making headline news, and something else captures the front pages. Then it'll seem more like an ordinary illness; the number of ordinary flu victims rarely makes the news, after all.Casino_Royale said:Weirdly, I feel more stoic the closer it gets. I was far more concerned when it was incubating and growing in China, which felt (if I’m totally honest) more abstract.
It’s almost a relief it’s finally here, which means that in 2-3 months it will have peaked and be on the decline.
It’s the waiting and uncertainty that’s intolerable.0 -
There is also the weather to factor in. Coronavirus struck Hubei at the perfect point for transmission. A warm, wet spring could be our friend.FF43 said:Now would be a good time to bury a Hard Brexit.
Corona Virus prognosis in the UK. Hubei Province has approximately the same population as the UK. So far there have been ca 2500 deaths (I don't have the break out of the Hubei versus all China figure). Deaths, which are obviously a trailing indicator, are declining rapidly.
This suggests to me a plausible final death toll in the UK of low thousands with the following observations:- Coronavirus took Hubei by surprise. We should be better prepared.
- The healthcare system in China is more fragmented than in the UK.
- The death toll may pick up again in Hubei after an abeyance.
- Hubei is massively locked down now, after the initial weak response
0 - Coronavirus took Hubei by surprise. We should be better prepared.
-
Is that a good idea when it comes to SeanT?Dura_Ace said:
Not in the 21st C. British forces. They just get given massive amounts of drugs.Casino_Royale said:
Hopefully, it’s just a phase, but there’s a reason such people are quickly bundled off to the rear during wars.0 -
That would be sad, also sad would be if there was no victory parade afterwards. An estimated 750,000 turned out for the Champions League victory parade, it was impressive. I'd expect the first league trophy in 30 years to get about the same again in normal circumstances - if they're unable to do that due to the virus that's not the worlds biggest problem but it would be a shame.tlg86 said:
Nah, but the trophy presentation in an empty Anfield would be mildly amusing.TheScreamingEagles said:My second biggest concern is the Premier League is cancelled before Liverpool win the title.
0 -
-
So basically being a miserable lot of buggers is going to keep the death rate down.Casino_Royale said:
That’s quite reassuring actually.HYUFD said:UK government plans for containing coronavirus and dealing with any outbreak
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/explainers-51632801
The UK is a very well organised country.
It also helps that we don’t live and socialise in quite the same way here. We’re not hugely communitarian: most Brits limit themselves to the workplace or pubs & clubs outside of work, which can simply be suspended if needed.
So I’d expect people would limit themselves to immediate family plus essential work only.1 -
Basically.MikeSmithson said:
So basically being a miserable lot of buggers is going to keep the death rate down.Casino_Royale said:
That’s quite reassuring actually.HYUFD said:UK government plans for containing coronavirus and dealing with any outbreak
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/explainers-51632801
The UK is a very well organised country.
It also helps that we don’t live and socialise in quite the same way here. We’re not hugely communitarian: most Brits limit themselves to the workplace or pubs & clubs outside of work, which can simply be suspended if needed.
So I’d expect people would limit themselves to immediate family plus essential work only.0 -
Its worth keeping some perspective. The annual flu season kills more than that in the UK every single year, even with the flu vaccine.FF43 said:Now would be a good time to bury a Hard Brexit.
Corona Virus prognosis in the UK. Hubei Province has approximately the same population as the UK. So far there have been ca 2500 deaths (I don't have the break out of the Hubei versus all China figure). Deaths, which are obviously a trailing indicator, are declining rapidly.
This suggests to me a plausible final death toll in the UK of low thousands with the following observations:- Coronavirus took Hubei by surprise. We should be better prepared.
- The healthcare system in China is more fragmented than in the UK.
- The death toll may pick up again in Hubei after an abeyance.
- Hubei is massively locked down now, after the initial weak response
0 - Coronavirus took Hubei by surprise. We should be better prepared.
-
I think, in general terms, Nandy and Starmer are from the same school - and are pretty reflective of mainstream values inside Labour. Long-Bailey is definitely to the left of them. She is an anti-capitalist, Socialist, whereas the other two are left-wing social democrats.kle4 said:
I presume its just because if one person is seen as the left wing candidate it is assumed others must be right wing, when its quite possible to have a race with very little meaningful difference in policy terms.SouthamObserver said:
It's utterly bizarre that Nandy is seen as right wing, even in Labour terms. There is no way that she can be described as that. I would say she is from exactly the same part of the party as Starmer. The only significant difference between them is Brexit - and that will fade as an issue.kle4 said:
16% would be a lot better than expected for Nandy. RLB is the anointed one, Starmer the 'acceptable to all' one and Nandy is the right wing one who criticised the party.OldKingCole said:On topic, having not long woken up and not having looked at PB last night, I'm somewhat surprised at Nandy being 3rd. Seems to have a lot more about her than Long-Bailey, but given the respective ages I reckon her time will come.
And yes, I've been following what's been happening, but thought that L-B wasn't doing as well as expected, and Nandy a lot better.
Now none of that need be true, but those appear to be the labels each has ended up with and people hate changing that view and Nandy has a low ceiling.
In a way it might be better if Starmer didnt quite win outright on the first preference, that way his support level looks even better as he gets into the 60s.
0 -
I hope that SeanT is not in the military.Casino_Royale said:
Is that a good idea when it comes to SeanT?Dura_Ace said:
Not in the 21st C. British forces. They just get given massive amounts of drugs.Casino_Royale said:
Hopefully, it’s just a phase, but there’s a reason such people are quickly bundled off to the rear during wars.0 -
Possibly not. But remember that eadric is definitely not SeanT. eadric is merely a user that coincidentally just happened to join the site the day after Bryonic got banned and Bryonic is 100% definitely not SeanT because . . . ummm . . . he says so?Casino_Royale said:
Is that a good idea when it comes to SeanT?Dura_Ace said:
Not in the 21st C. British forces. They just get given massive amounts of drugs.Casino_Royale said:
Hopefully, it’s just a phase, but there’s a reason such people are quickly bundled off to the rear during wars.1 -
Bullying isn't always wrong. This is one of those cases.HYUFD said:1 -
A Black Swan wearing a face mask.0
-
*If* the UK does have ca 2500 deaths due to COVID-19 this year, then ironically the number of deaths due to flu in the 2020/2021 winter will be significantly lower!Philip_Thompson said:
Its worth keeping some perspective. The annual flu season kills more than that in the UK every single year, even with the flu vaccine.FF43 said:Now would be a good time to bury a Hard Brexit.
Corona Virus prognosis in the UK. Hubei Province has approximately the same population as the UK. So far there have been ca 2500 deaths (I don't have the break out of the Hubei versus all China figure). Deaths, which are obviously a trailing indicator, are declining rapidly.
This suggests to me a plausible final death toll in the UK of low thousands with the following observations:- Coronavirus took Hubei by surprise. We should be better prepared.
- The healthcare system in China is more fragmented than in the UK.
- The death toll may pick up again in Hubei after an abeyance.
- Hubei is massively locked down now, after the initial weak response
0 - Coronavirus took Hubei by surprise. We should be better prepared.
-
Interesting maths! RLB gets more than both of themJonathan said:
So Starmer is the most popular candidate for Labour leavers. More than twice as popular as Nandy. Interesting.HYUFD said:
While Starmer gets 57% of the vote from Labour members who voted Remain he gets only 37% from Labour members who voted Leave, Long Bailey gets 45% from Labour members who voted Leave but only 28% from Labour members who voted Remain, Nandy gets 15% from Labour members who voted Remain but 18% from Labour members who voted Leavekle4 said:
16% would be a lot better than expected for Nandy. RLB is the anointed one, Starmer the 'acceptable to all' one and Nandy is the right wing one who criticised the party.OldKingCole said:On topic, having not long woken up and not having looked at PB last night, I'm somewhat surprised at Nandy being 3rd. Seems to have a lot more about her than Long-Bailey, but given the respective ages I reckon her time will come.
And yes, I've been following what's been happening, but thought that L-B wasn't doing as well as expected, and Nandy a lot better.
Now none of that need be true, but those appear to be the labels each has ended up with and people hate changing that view and Nandy has a low ceiling.
In a way it might be better if Starmer didnt quite win outright on the first preference, that way his support level looks even better as he gets into the 60s.
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2020/02/26/keir-starmer-holds-his-commanding-lead-battle-labo1 -
N95s are recommended but they seem to be all sold out. I have two.rottenborough said:Any advice on where to buy facemasks? What type?
0 -
All over by Christmas?Casino_Royale said:Weirdly, I feel more stoic the closer it gets. I was far more concerned when it was incubating and growing in China, which felt (if I’m totally honest) more abstract.
It’s almost a relief it’s finally here, which means that in 2-3 months it will have peaked and be on the decline.
It’s the waiting and uncertainty that’s intolerable.0
