politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Is the monarchy in trouble?

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

StuartDickson said:

HYUFD said:

SandyRentool said:

Gallowgate said:

Just come back from seeing Lisa Nandy speak.

My review: she’s getting my vote. She gets it.

It is a pity that our membership in the south don't see the need to have a leader who gets it.

Tory Leavers may prefer Nandy but will vote for Boris anyway, Tory and LD and SNP Remainers might switch though to a Starmer led Labour

Please explain how SNP voters find Starmer attractive. Genuinely inquisitive, as I have never seen any Scottish Unionist commentators making this claim.

Starmer will not cut it with the Scots

He would actually be the most popular Labour leader with Scots since Brown

An English North London elite lawyer being popular in Scotland for labour. - not a chance

Read the polls, he polls higher in Scotland than England and went to uni in Leeds not the South for undergrad.

Sturgeon is also an elite lawyer anyway

In what sense is she an “elite lawyer”?

Pulpstar said:

Warren up to 19% in new poll.

Still 120/1 against her being the Democrat nominee.

I'm assuming Sanders has got the nomination and I'm now modelling Trump v. Sanders by state using the RCP average state poll of Trump v. Sanders.

Bernie could lose:
Colorado (40% chance) 9 votes
Nevada (50%) 6
Virginia (30%) 13

and gain:
Michigan (90%) 16
N Carolina (10%) 15
Pennsylvania (60%) 20

Overall Trump v. Sanders: 273 v 263

But possible range is huge from 336 v 200 to 206 v 330 (if Bernie wins Florida which is just possible).

YBarddCwsc said:

Mexicanpete said:

With an open-tied moron like Drakeford running the show anything is possible. If Plaid hadn't imploded they could have taken up the slack.

Boris didn't put off my Brexiteer contacts, they loved him. I can't think of many Tory MPs in Wales that have as much charisma as Boris has in his little finger. They are indeed as uninspiring as Labour politicians in Wales, and as for Tory AMs are concerned, Drakeford looks almost human by contrast.

As stodge said, "nothing lasts forever - one day the Conservatives will find themselves on the wrong side of opinion and on the wrong end of an election result."

The same is true for Llafur.

They have been in power for 20 years. A generation has grown up under Welsh Labour. Wales has become poorer and more depressed, its health and education are the worst of the 4 nations that comprise the UK, and there is endemic corruption in Cardiff Bay (there is no register of lobbyists and special interest groups, unlike elsewhere).

Labour richly deserves to lose power in Wales, judged on their achievements and record since 1999.

And I am not anti-Labour. I like Labour MPs like David Lammy who fight for their people. My whole despairing argument with Welsh Labour is that they are not fighting for Wales and the Welsh. If they were, I would vote for them.

Labour are shockingly complacent in Wales. I just don't believe the Tories in Wales have much in the tank. If Boris' star continues its ascent they might piggyback a rainbow coalition in Cardiff Bay on the back of his popularity.

Barnesian said:

Pulpstar said:

Warren up to 19% in new poll.

Still 120/1 against her being the Democrat nominee.

I'm assuming Sanders has got the nomination and I'm now modelling Trump v. Sanders by state using the RCP average state poll of Trump v. Sanders.

Bernie could lose:
Colorado (40% chance) 9 votes
Nevada (50%) 6
Virginia (30%) 13

and gain:
Michigan (90%) 16
N Carolina (10%) 15
Pennsylvania (60%) 20

Overall Trump v. Sanders: 273 v 263

But possible range is huge from 336 v 200 to 206 v 330 (if Bernie wins Florida which is just possible).

I think Florida would be very difficult for Sanders, most of the voters there are even older than he is.

Pulpstar said:

Barnesian said:

Pulpstar said:

Warren up to 19% in new poll.

Still 120/1 against her being the Democrat nominee.

I'm assuming Sanders has got the nomination and I'm now modelling Trump v. Sanders by state using the RCP average state poll of Trump v. Sanders.

Bernie could lose:
Colorado (40% chance) 9 votes
Nevada (50%) 6
Virginia (30%) 13

and gain:
Michigan (90%) 16
N Carolina (10%) 15
Pennsylvania (60%) 20

Overall Trump v. Sanders: 273 v 263

But possible range is huge from 336 v 200 to 206 v 330 (if Bernie wins Florida which is just possible).

I think Florida would be very difficult for Sanders, most of the voters there are even older than he is.

Also big Cuban population....not exactly fans of Socialism / Communism.

HYUFD

I wasn't implying Labour could lose all their formally safe seats to the Tories. They could lose them to the LDs when the Party implodes on a RLB victory.

YBarddCwsc said:

Mexicanpete said:

YBarddCwsc said:

Mexicanpete said:

With an open-tied moron like Drakeford running the show anything is possible. If Plaid hadn't imploded they could have taken up the slack.

Boris didn't put off my Brexiteer contacts, they loved him. I can't think of many Tory MPs in Wales that have as much charisma as Boris has in his little finger. They are indeed as uninspiring as Labour politicians in Wales, and as for Tory AMs are concerned, Drakeford looks almost human by contrast.

As stodge said, "nothing lasts forever - one day the Conservatives will find themselves on the wrong side of opinion and on the wrong end of an election result."

The same is true for Llafur.

They have been in power for 20 years. A generation has grown up under Welsh Labour. Wales has become poorer and more depressed, its health and education are the worst of the 4 nations that comprise the UK, and there is endemic corruption in Cardiff Bay (there is no register of lobbyists and special interest groups, unlike elsewhere).

Labour richly deserves to lose power in Wales, judged on their achievements and record since 1999.

And I am not anti-Labour. I like Labour MPs like David Lammy who fight for their people. My whole despairing argument with Welsh Labour is that they are not fighting for Wales and the Welsh. If they were, I would vote for them.

Labour are shockingly complacent in Wales. I just don't believe the Tories in Wales have much in the tank. If Boris' star continues its ascent they might piggyback a rainbow coalition in Cardiff Bay on the back of his popularity.

I think both Rhodri Morgan and Carwyn Jones were demonstrably more assured & capable politicians than their Tory opponents.

Mark Drakeford is worse than Paul Davies.

There is an opportunity for Adam Price -- although whether he can take it is unclear.

I could see Wales ending up like Ireland with Lab, Tories and Plaid on very similar numbers of seats.

Where would P.C. gain, in your view? Given they are, lacking, to be charitable, skilled or charismatic leadership. Is it by default?

YBarddCwsc said:

Mexicanpete said:

YBarddCwsc said:

Mexicanpete said:

With an open-tied moron like Drakeford running the show anything is possible. If Plaid hadn't imploded they could have taken up the slack.

Boris didn't put off my Brexiteer contacts, they loved him. I can't think of many Tory MPs in Wales that have as much charisma as Boris has in his little finger. They are indeed as uninspiring as Labour politicians in Wales, and as for Tory AMs are concerned, Drakeford looks almost human by contrast.

As stodge said, "nothing lasts forever - one day the Conservatives will find themselves on the wrong side of opinion and on the wrong end of an election result."

The same is true for Llafur.

They have been in power for 20 years. A generation has grown up under Welsh Labour. Wales has become poorer and more depressed, its health and education are the worst of the 4 nations that comprise the UK, and there is endemic corruption in Cardiff Bay (there is no register of lobbyists and special interest groups, unlike elsewhere).

Labour richly deserves to lose power in Wales, judged on their achievements and record since 1999.

And I am not anti-Labour. I like Labour MPs like David Lammy who fight for their people. My whole despairing argument with Welsh Labour is that they are not fighting for Wales and the Welsh. If they were, I would vote for them.

Labour are shockingly complacent in Wales. I just don't believe the Tories in Wales have much in the tank. If Boris' star continues its ascent they might piggyback a rainbow coalition in Cardiff Bay on the back of his popularity.

I think both Rhodri Morgan and Carwyn Jones were demonstrably more assured & capable politicians than their Tory opponents.

Mark Drakeford is worse than Paul Davies.

There is an opportunity for Adam Price -- although whether he can take it is unclear.

I could see Wales ending up like Ireland with Lab, Tories and Plaid on very similar numbers of seats.

As a Labour member I agree Drakeford has the charisma of a dead dog, but have you ever met Paul Davies? He needs a charisma transfusion as well.
I know Rhodri could be a bit verbose, and his fake Caaardiff accent hid his classical education, but he connected better with the electorate than any subsequent party leader in Wales.

matt said:

YBarddCwsc said:

Mexicanpete said:

YBarddCwsc said:

Mexicanpete said:

With an open-tied moron like Drakeford running the show anything is possible. If Plaid hadn't imploded they could have taken up the slack.

Boris didn't put off my Brexiteer contacts, they loved him. I can't think of many Tory MPs in Wales that have as much charisma as Boris has in his little finger. They are indeed as uninspiring as Labour politicians in Wales, and as for Tory AMs are concerned, Drakeford looks almost human by contrast.

As stodge said, "nothing lasts forever - one day the Conservatives will find themselves on the wrong side of opinion and on the wrong end of an election result."

The same is true for Llafur.

They have been in power for 20 years. A generation has grown up under Welsh Labour. Wales has become poorer and more depressed, its health and education are the worst of the 4 nations that comprise the UK, and there is endemic corruption in Cardiff Bay (there is no register of lobbyists and special interest groups, unlike elsewhere).

Labour richly deserves to lose power in Wales, judged on their achievements and record since 1999.

And I am not anti-Labour. I like Labour MPs like David Lammy who fight for their people. My whole despairing argument with Welsh Labour is that they are not fighting for Wales and the Welsh. If they were, I would vote for them.

Labour are shockingly complacent in Wales. I just don't believe the Tories in Wales have much in the tank. If Boris' star continues its ascent they might piggyback a rainbow coalition in Cardiff Bay on the back of his popularity.

I think both Rhodri Morgan and Carwyn Jones were demonstrably more assured & capable politicians than their Tory opponents.

Mark Drakeford is worse than Paul Davies.

There is an opportunity for Adam Price -- although whether he can take it is unclear.

I could see Wales ending up like Ireland with Lab, Tories and Plaid on very similar numbers of seats.

Where would P.C. gain, in your view? Given they are, lacking, to be charitable, skilled or charismatic leadership. Is it by default?

No, Price is a good leader. He just hasn't got much to lead.

Mexicanpete said:

YBarddCwsc said:

Mexicanpete said:

With an open-tied moron like Drakeford running the show anything is possible. If Plaid hadn't imploded they could have taken up the slack.

Boris didn't put off my Brexiteer contacts, they loved him. I can't think of many Tory MPs in Wales that have as much charisma as Boris has in his little finger. They are indeed as uninspiring as Labour politicians in Wales, and as for Tory AMs are concerned, Drakeford looks almost human by contrast.

As stodge said, "nothing lasts forever - one day the Conservatives will find themselves on the wrong side of opinion and on the wrong end of an election result."

The same is true for Llafur.

They have been in power for 20 years. A generation has grown up under Welsh Labour. Wales has become poorer and more depressed, its health and education are the worst of the 4 nations that comprise the UK, and there is endemic corruption in Cardiff Bay (there is no register of lobbyists and special interest groups, unlike elsewhere).

Labour richly deserves to lose power in Wales, judged on their achievements and record since 1999.

And I am not anti-Labour. I like Labour MPs like David Lammy who fight for their people. My whole despairing argument with Welsh Labour is that they are not fighting for Wales and the Welsh. If they were, I would vote for them.

Labour are shockingly complacent in Wales. I just don't believe the Tories in Wales have much in the tank. If Boris' star continues its ascent they might piggyback a rainbow coalition in Cardiff Bay on the back of his popularity.

Plaid will be in no hurry to enter any coalition with the Tories led by Boris Johnson, and there is no certainty now that Kirsty Williams will survive. Confidence and supply would be the best the Tories could hope for, but for that they have to be the largest party by some margin.

Not impossible given Labour’s travails, but not easy.

BTW, the Tories have a serious problem with lack of diversity. All their leading politicians are called Davies. Very confusing.

Mexicanpete said:

matt said:

YBarddCwsc said:

Mexicanpete said:

YBarddCwsc said:

Mexicanpete said:

With an open-tied moron like Drakeford running the show anything is possible. If Plaid hadn't imploded they could have taken up the slack.

Boris didn't put off my Brexiteer contacts, they loved him. I can't think of many Tory MPs in Wales that have as much charisma as Boris has in his little finger. They are indeed as uninspiring as Labour politicians in Wales, and as for Tory AMs are concerned, Drakeford looks almost human by contrast.

As stodge said, "nothing lasts forever - one day the Conservatives will find themselves on the wrong side of opinion and on the wrong end of an election result."

The same is true for Llafur.

They have been in power for 20 years. A generation has grown up under Welsh Labour. Wales has become poorer and more depressed, its health and education are the worst of the 4 nations that comprise the UK, and there is endemic corruption in Cardiff Bay (there is no register of lobbyists and special interest groups, unlike elsewhere).

Labour richly deserves to lose power in Wales, judged on their achievements and record since 1999.

And I am not anti-Labour. I like Labour MPs like David Lammy who fight for their people. My whole despairing argument with Welsh Labour is that they are not fighting for Wales and the Welsh. If they were, I would vote for them.

Labour are shockingly complacent in Wales. I just don't believe the Tories in Wales have much in the tank. If Boris' star continues its ascent they might piggyback a rainbow coalition in Cardiff Bay on the back of his popularity.

I think both Rhodri Morgan and Carwyn Jones were demonstrably more assured & capable politicians than their Tory opponents.

Mark Drakeford is worse than Paul Davies.

There is an opportunity for Adam Price -- although whether he can take it is unclear.

I could see Wales ending up like Ireland with Lab, Tories and Plaid on very similar numbers of seats.

Where would P.C. gain, in your view? Given they are, lacking, to be charitable, skilled or charismatic leadership. Is it by default?

No, Price is a good leader. He just hasn't got much to lead.

Interesting. That’s not the view of people I know. But Monmouthshire is just England with added daffodil....

IanB2 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Mexicanpete said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Jonathan said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Jonathan said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Jonathan said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Gallowgate said:

Just come back from seeing Lisa Nandy speak.

My review: she’s getting my vote. She gets it.

I think Lisa is the only sane choice for labour and would vote for her if I had a vote

RLB is over and Starmer is not a leader

Starmer is a leader. But Nandy is good too. Both are better than Boris.

Well that is predictable but no signs that labour are making progress

I know your opinion on Boris but he is there for five years if he wants to be and none of the labour leaders will see an 80 seat majority

If only we had your independent viewpoint BigG. You lasted all of five minutes outside the party.

You have no idea about my membership of the party.

I voted for Blair twice and apart from Iraq he would be a winning labour leader again today

You resigned last year and made a big song and dance about it here. You then came running back and are now reinstalled as a cheerleader.

Along with millions of others though I have my reservations on Boris as I have expressed on here from time to time

Not for a while, you have become more of a Boris fanboy than HYUFD'.

Now that is not true

I can’t find an emoji for an extending nose.

🤥

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:

ydoethur said:

HYUFD said:

ydoethur said:

HYUFD said:

ydoethur said:

Jonathan said:

ydoethur said:

Jonathan said:

ydoethur said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

I don't think Starmer's non answer on Trident will harm him. It hasn't harmed the SNP in Scotland - people just don't believe it's the bedrock of our security. I wonder actually if he's not thinking of trying to entice back SNP supporters actually. SNP are going through very squally times, set to get worse. It has been said that Labour cannot win except through Scotland.

In nine years, Labour’s vote has halved, while the Tories have increased theirs 50% and the SNP vote has almost trebled.

Winning that back is not going to be at all easy. At the moment, it’s still going the wrong way, and even the nationwide surge in 2017 barely registered.

How has Labours vote halved in 9 years?

In Scotland! From 1,035,528 to 511,838.

All the more remarkable given the Labour vote has grown by about 2M overall in the same time.

Labour’s vote has risen in Wales since 2005 - from 591,000 to 632,000 - but their number of seats has fallen from 30 to 22. It’s a sign that should worry Labour that their vote is becoming grossly inefficient.

Yet they still win most votes and seats, Plaid and the LDs are hapless in Wales and the Tories too entrenched in North and Mid Wales while Labour dominates the populous South

Tories were close behind them this time in terms of votes and they ran them much closer than you might think in many seats in the valleys. I am still working on that thread header.

If the Tories did not win Wales in 2019 with a majority of 80 they likely never will

If the Tories could not break through in the North East in 1983 with a majority of 144 they likely never will.

But they did.

Labour won most North East seats in 2019 too

...but you understand where Ydoethur is coming from. There are no longer any safe Labour seats.

On the other hand Christchurch will always be Tory.

Most of the seats in Merseyside, Manchester and east London are safe for Labour.

Must be almost time for Eadric’s nightly sober assessment of the latest news on the killer virus?

IanB2 said:

matt said:

AndreaParma_82 said:

We are closing everything here in Italy because of the coronavirus

10 municipalites are locked down with police now controlling exit routes.

Cinema and theaters are ordered to close in Lombardy region. Pubs should close after 6pm

Schools and universities are closed in Lombardy, Veneto, Friuli, Piemonte and Trentino since tomorrow.

Masses have been canceled in all churches located in Lombardy starting from this evening. The same order have just been given by the bishop of Venice.
The Milan cathedral is going to be closed tomorrow

How exciting. I have to go to Milan next week (albeit Malpensa, so nowhere near downtown Milan), having been in Shanghai in January. Perhaps I should just think of it as a form of Chinese roulette.

You’re most at risk on the flight, I’d have thought.

Austria has just stopped an Italian train at their border

YBarddCwsc said:

ydoethur said:

Plaid will be in no hurry to enter any coalition with the Tories led by Boris Johnson, and there is no certainty now that Kirsty Williams will survive. Confidence and supply would be the best the Tories could hope for, but for that they have to be the largest party by some margin.

Not impossible given Labour’s travails, but not easy.

BTW, the Tories have a serious problem with lack of diversity. All their leading politicians are called Davies. Very confusing.

When are we getting your thread header? Do hurry!

When I have a few minutes to finish it! I am not sure when that will be.

The same is true for Llafur.

They have been in power for 20 years. A generation has grown up under Welsh Labour. Wales has become poorer and more depressed, its health and education are the worst of the 4 nations that comprise the UK, and there is endemic corruption in Cardiff Bay (there is no register of lobbyists and special interest groups, unlike elsewhere).

Labour richly deserves to lose power in Wales, judged on their achievements and record since 1999.

And I am not anti-Labour. I like Labour MPs like David Lammy who fight for their people. My whole despairing argument with Welsh Labour is that they are not fighting for Wales and the Welsh. If they were, I would vote for them.


Labour are shockingly complacent in Wales. I just don't believe the Tories in Wales have much in the tank. If Boris' star continues its ascent they might piggyback a rainbow coalition in Cardiff Bay on the back of his popularity.

I think both Rhodri Morgan and Carwyn Jones were demonstrably more assured & capable politicians than their Tory opponents.

Mark Drakeford is worse than Paul Davies.

There is an opportunity for Adam Price -- although whether he can take it is unclear.

I could see Wales ending up like Ireland with Lab, Tories and Plaid on very similar numbers of seats.

As a Labour member I agree Drakeford has the charisma of a dead dog, but have you ever met Paul Davies? He needs a charisma transfusion as well.
I know Rhodri could be a bit verbose, and his fake Caaardiff accent hid his classical education, but he connected better with the electorate than any subsequent party leader in Wales.

Devolution was a big mistake - a self inflicted wound which has come back to haunt Labour. I would be very happy to see Johnson try to abolish the Assembly - at the very least hold another Referendum to ascertain whether people still want it.

I realise that you were from my neck of the woods originally, but I do find that comment a bit rich coming from someone who has not lived in Wales for a long time.
I am no nationalist, but it scares me to think where we would be now, if after 10 years of Tory rule, if there had been no devolution. I am happier that Cardiff make bad decisions in my name, than if London was.

ydoethur said:

Mexicanpete said:

YBarddCwsc said:

Mexicanpete said:

With an open-tied moron like Drakeford running the show anything is possible. If Plaid hadn't imploded they could have taken up the slack.

Boris didn't put off my Brexiteer contacts, they loved him. I can't think of many Tory MPs in Wales that have as much charisma as Boris has in his little finger. They are indeed as uninspiring as Labour politicians in Wales, and as for Tory AMs are concerned, Drakeford looks almost human by contrast.

As stodge said, "nothing lasts forever - one day the Conservatives will find themselves on the wrong side of opinion and on the wrong end of an election result."

The same is true for Llafur.

They have been in power for 20 years. A generation has grown up under Welsh Labour. Wales has become poorer and more depressed, its health and education are the worst of the 4 nations that comprise the UK, and there is endemic corruption in Cardiff Bay (there is no register of lobbyists and special interest groups, unlike elsewhere).

Labour richly deserves to lose power in Wales, judged on their achievements and record since 1999.

And I am not anti-Labour. I like Labour MPs like David Lammy who fight for their people. My whole despairing argument with Welsh Labour is that they are not fighting for Wales and the Welsh. If they were, I would vote for them.

Labour are shockingly complacent in Wales. I just don't believe the Tories in Wales have much in the tank. If Boris' star continues its ascent they might piggyback a rainbow coalition in Cardiff Bay on the back of his popularity.

Plaid will be in no hurry to enter any coalition with the Tories led by Boris Johnson, and there is no certainty now that Kirsty Williams will survive. Confidence and supply would be the best the Tories could hope for, but for that they have to be the largest party by some margin.

Not impossible given Labour’s travails, but not easy.

BTW, the Tories have a serious problem with lack of diversity. All their leading politicians are called Davies. Very confusing.

And farmers.

Maybe a stupid question but is coronavirus any more infectious than common flu which causes tens of thousands of deaths every year?

It's estimated that flu causes around 61,000 deaths each year in the USA, which would be equivalent to about 12,000 a year in the UK.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html

BTW, if anyone has an account with Betfair and would like to ask them for a market for the next Assembly elections, that would help enormously with finishing this thread header.

StuartDickson said:

Cyclefree said:

An excellent header, @Casino_Royale. Thank you.

Personally I feel that Harry has turned into a whinging petulant child and it is doing him no favours. I’m all for him retiring to a private life but then he needs to stop trying to hang onto the benefits of royal life and commenting on what royal means. His latest outburst is ill-judged. A long period of silence from him would be wise.

A period of calm and competent getting on with their jobs would be welcome in our institutions.

Whoever would have imagined that a child of Diana Spencer and Charles Sachsen-Coburg und Gotha would turn out to be a whinging petulant child?

If he gets any more childish and immature he'll start receiving texts from senior SNP politicians.

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Okay question.

Starmer has been accused by some of being too Londony, too Southern based but could this be his actual plan?

If he took a good proportion of London, he'd make a massive dent into the Tory majority no?

What if his plan is to do a reverse Johnson and take seats in the South? Has anyone done the numbers and seen if this could work?

11 Tory seats in London with a majority of less than 10,000. Some dent.

CorrectHorseBattery said:

RobD said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Okay question.

Starmer has been accused by some of being too Londony, too Southern based but could this be his actual plan?

If he took a good proportion of London, he'd make a massive dent into the Tory majority no?

What if his plan is to do a reverse Johnson and take seats in the South? Has anyone done the numbers and seen if this could work?

11 Tory seats in London with a majority of less than 10,000. Some dent.

I have no idea, I just wonder his logic of backing FOM so happily.

I wonder if he's planning an alliance with the Lib Dems? To force a minority Government he needs a swing of something like 5.5%, with LDs making gains it would be less.

I'm just trying to get his strategy.

Table here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Parliamentary_constituencies_in_London

Pulpstar said:

Warren up to 19% in new poll.

Post debate surge hidden by Nevada early voting.

Go Liz

deleted.

IanB2 said:

Must be almost time for Eadric’s nightly sober assessment of the latest news on the killer virus?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Misinformation_related_to_the_2019–20_coronavirus_outbreak

CorrectHorseBattery said:

RobD said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

RobD said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

RobD said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Okay question.

Starmer has been accused by some of being too Londony, too Southern based but could this be his actual plan?

If he took a good proportion of London, he'd make a massive dent into the Tory majority no?

What if his plan is to do a reverse Johnson and take seats in the South? Has anyone done the numbers and seen if this could work?

11 Tory seats in London with a majority of less than 10,000. Some dent.

I have no idea, I just wonder his logic of backing FOM so happily.

I wonder if he's planning an alliance with the Lib Dems? To force a minority Government he needs a swing of something like 5.5%, with LDs making gains it would be less.

I'm just trying to get his strategy.

Table here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Parliamentary_constituencies_in_London

Doesn't answer what his strategy is.

I don't see why you'd double down on something like FOM if you didn't have some kind of plan to pickup Remain seats.

It was in reply to your statement that you had no idea. I assumed you had no idea of the number of seats, so was giving you a link to a table.

I was asking about his strategy to go all liberal. He must think it's a winning strategy, I was trying to figure out why.

Just because he thinks it is doesn't mean it is.

eadric said:

matt said:

StuartDickson said:

ydoethur said:

StuartDickson said:

matt said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

StuartDickson said:

HYUFD said:

SandyRentool said:

Gallowgate said:

Just come back from seeing Lisa Nandy speak.

My review: she’s getting my vote. She gets it.

It is a pity that our membership in the south don't see the need to have a leader who gets it.

Tory Leavers may prefer Nandy but will vote for Boris anyway, Tory and LD and SNP Remainers might switch though to a Starmer led Labour

Please explain how SNP voters find Starmer attractive. Genuinely inquisitive, as I have never seen any Scottish Unionist commentators making this claim.

Starmer will not cut it with the Scots

He would actually be the most popular Labour leader with Scots since Brown

An English North London elite lawyer being popular in Scotland for labour. - not a chance

Read the polls, he polls higher in Scotland than England and went to uni in Leeds not the South for undergrad.

Sturgeon is also an elite lawyer anyway

In what sense is she an “elite lawyer”?

My reaction too. Unless being a solicitor makes you “elite” these days?

According to Richard Burgon it brings in only a modest wage...

I’m sure a lot of solicitors are hard up.

Artificial Intelligence is going to decimate most legal jobs, so I cannot see a bright future for that group.

You are Richard Susskind and I claim my publishing contract (saying the same thing) 1998 - 2020.

Please explain how AI will “decimate most legal jobs”.

Because they just will (just as they will destroy most jobs in basic journalism)

A legal document does not require imagination, human insight, emotional drama, empathy with other humans. Most legal documents, from mortgages to wills, require access to the cold hard facts, and that's it. And that is what a lot of lawyers do - they produce legal documents - like notaries, for instance.

All this can be automated tomorrow, and will save lawyers and customers millions.


A robot will not replace a QC in an Old Bailey murder trial. Not for a long time.

Good to know. Look forward to advising you on how to draft novels

Big_G_NorthWales said:

From the Guardian

At tonights hustings in Durham, Starmer said that he would appoint Nandy and RLB to his shadow cabinet and they both agreed they would appoint their leadership opponents as well if they won

Furthermore, all three stressed their determination to accept the Brexit outcome and abandon all talk of rejoining

Both points are absurd. There are nothing to suggest that Long-Bailey has anything worth hearing and rejoining as a medium term policy is perfectly appropriate and quite saleable. All the Labour candidates could, if this an accurate description, try honesty.

matt said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

From the Guardian

At tonights hustings in Durham, Starmer said that he would appoint Nandy and RLB to his shadow cabinet and they both agreed they would appoint their leadership opponents as well if they won

Furthermore, all three stressed their determination to accept the Brexit outcome and abandon all talk of rejoining

Both points are absurd. There are nothing to suggest that Long-Bailey has anything worth hearing and rejoining as a medium term policy is perfectly appropriate and quite saleable. All the Labour candidates could, if this an accurate description, try honesty.

It is the Guardian reporting this

matt said:

eadric said:

matt said:

StuartDickson said:

ydoethur said:

StuartDickson said:

matt said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

StuartDickson said:

HYUFD said:

SandyRentool said:

Gallowgate said:

Just come back from seeing Lisa Nandy speak.

My review: she’s getting my vote. She gets it.

It is a pity that our membership in the south don't see the need to have a leader who gets it.

Tory Leavers may prefer Nandy but will vote for Boris anyway, Tory and LD and SNP Remainers might switch though to a Starmer led Labour

Please explain how SNP voters find Starmer attractive. Genuinely inquisitive, as I have never seen any Scottish Unionist commentators making this claim.

Starmer will not cut it with the Scots

He would actually be the most popular Labour leader with Scots since Brown

An English North London elite lawyer being popular in Scotland for labour. - not a chance

Read the polls, he polls higher in Scotland than England and went to uni in Leeds not the South for undergrad.

Sturgeon is also an elite lawyer anyway

In what sense is she an “elite lawyer”?

My reaction too. Unless being a solicitor makes you “elite” these days?

According to Richard Burgon it brings in only a modest wage...

I’m sure a lot of solicitors are hard up.

Artificial Intelligence is going to decimate most legal jobs, so I cannot see a bright future for that group.

You are Richard Susskind and I claim my publishing contract (saying the same thing) 1998 - 2020.

Please explain how AI will “decimate most legal jobs”.

Because they just will (just as they will destroy most jobs in basic journalism)

A legal document does not require imagination, human insight, emotional drama, empathy with other humans. Most legal documents, from mortgages to wills, require access to the cold hard facts, and that's it. And that is what a lot of lawyers do - they produce legal documents - like notaries, for instance.

All this can be automated tomorrow, and will save lawyers and customers millions.


A robot will not replace a QC in an Old Bailey murder trial. Not for a long time.

Good to know. Look forward to advising you on how to draft novels

AI will probably be able to have a good stab at a novel for people to read on the bus. Especially if it doesn’t matter that the characters all have the same verbal style.

FrancisUrquhart said:

This is the problem Labour have...

https://twitter.com/p_surridge/status/1230635802599809026?s=20

While they are getting their knickers in a twist over things like which bit of the trans-right pressure group pledge card they agree with, the wider public (including many Labour voters) are not as where near as woke / liberal.

Interesting how close the Tories are to the non-aligned, and how far Labour are.

Cyclefree said:

An excellent header, @Casino_Royale. Thank you.

Personally I feel that Harry has turned into a whinging petulant child and it is doing him no favours. I’m all for him retiring to a private life but then he needs to stop trying to hang onto the benefits of royal life and commenting on what royal means. His latest outburst is ill-judged. A long period of silence from him would be wise.

A period of calm and competent getting on with their jobs would be welcome in our institutions.

There is perhaps a personal element to why Harry is bothered by removal of the HRH title.

https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1231629166069665799?s=19

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Starmer surely should be polling at 40% or above by 2022 to be showing any signs of progress, even Corbyn achieved that.

That is assuming the Tory vote doesn't collapse through the floor - but it keeps going up in every election so

There will (or at least should be) an election bounce, but there are elections in May. Those will be relevant for a judgement?

FrancisUrquhart said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

This is the problem Labour have...

https://twitter.com/p_surridge/status/1230635802599809026?s=20

While they are getting their knickers in a twist over things like which bit of the trans-right pressure group pledge card they agree with, the wider public (including many Labour voters) are not as where near as woke / liberal.

It's not even as if they can't support this stuff, it's simply a matter of priority.

To his credit, Starmer seems to have mostly avoided getting involved. Then Nandy shot herself in the foot which was weird.

But this is the problem both here and in the US with parts of the left, that any attempt to suggest there are much high priority issues can get you in a lot of trouble with the base. So the leadership spend a disproportionate amount of time talking about / tip toeing around in responses in attempts not to shoot themselves in the foot.

While the wider public look in and go oh they are talking about that niche issue again, and I don't really understand or agree with.

Flat Cap Fred certainly isn't interested in which pronouns a certain leader states in their twitter bio or that somebody once used the one wrongs and now everybody has spent the day shouting at one another about it.

I don’t agree with* the interest in sexual habits as as defining feature of society but equally enthusiasts might argue that a minority can make change if they are loud enough and capture a mood. Although I’m unconvinced that Farage is seen by such people as an example to follow.

*FAOD I don’t give a shit about what you stick your dick into or what your receive.

CorrectHorseBattery said:

matt said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Starmer surely should be polling at 40% or above by 2022 to be showing any signs of progress, even Corbyn achieved that.

That is assuming the Tory vote doesn't collapse through the floor - but it keeps going up in every election so

There will (or at least should be) an election bounce, but there are elections in May. Those will be relevant for a judgement?

Should be yes, Labour will want to make progress in those.

Really 2022 is when it should be clear how the next election is going.

Far too early. Maybe a month before in 2024.