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  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172


    With an open-tied moron like Drakeford running the show anything is possible. If Plaid hadn't imploded they could have taken up the slack.

    Boris didn't put off my Brexiteer contacts, they loved him. I can't think of many Tory MPs in Wales that have as much charisma as Boris has in his little finger. They are indeed as uninspiring as Labour politicians in Wales, and as for Tory AMs are concerned, Drakeford looks almost human by contrast.

    As stodge said, "nothing lasts forever - one day the Conservatives will find themselves on the wrong side of opinion and on the wrong end of an election result."

    The same is true for Llafur.

    They have been in power for 20 years. A generation has grown up under Welsh Labour. Wales has become poorer and more depressed, its health and education are the worst of the 4 nations that comprise the UK, and there is endemic corruption in Cardiff Bay (there is no register of lobbyists and special interest groups, unlike elsewhere).

    Labour richly deserves to lose power in Wales, judged on their achievements and record since 1999.

    And I am not anti-Labour. I like Labour MPs like David Lammy who fight for their people. My whole despairing argument with Welsh Labour is that they are not fighting for Wales and the Welsh. If they were, I would vote for them.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    Jonathan said:

    ydoethur said:

    Jonathan said:

    ydoethur said:

    I don't think Starmer's non answer on Trident will harm him. It hasn't harmed the SNP in Scotland - people just don't believe it's the bedrock of our security. I wonder actually if he's not thinking of trying to entice back SNP supporters actually. SNP are going through very squally times, set to get worse. It has been said that Labour cannot win except through Scotland.

    In nine years, Labour’s vote has halved, while the Tories have increased theirs 50% and the SNP vote has almost trebled.

    Winning that back is not going to be at all easy. At the moment, it’s still going the wrong way, and even the nationwide surge in 2017 barely registered.
    How has Labours vote halved in 9 years?
    In Scotland! From 1,035,528 to 511,838.
    All the more remarkable given the Labour vote has grown by about 2M overall in the same time.
    Labour’s vote has risen in Wales since 2005 - from 591,000 to 632,000 - but their number of seats has fallen from 30 to 22. It’s a sign that should worry Labour that their vote is becoming grossly inefficient.
    Yet they still win most votes and seats, Plaid and the LDs are hapless in Wales and the Tories too entrenched in North and Mid Wales while Labour dominates the populous South
    Tories were close behind them this time in terms of votes and they ran them much closer than you might think in many seats in the valleys. I am still working on that thread header.
    If the Tories did not win Wales in 2019 with a majority of 80 they likely never will
    If the Tories could not break through in the North East in 1983 with a majority of 144 they likely never will.

    But they did.
    Labour won most North East seats in 2019 too
    ...but you understand where Ydoethur is coming from. There are no longer any safe Labour seats.

    On the other hand Christchurch will always be Tory.
    East Ham and Knowsley, Leyton, Hackney, Tottenham, Liverpool and Manchester beg to differ.

    The LDs won Christchurch in 1993
    Just think Scotland. Anything is possible. The generations of Labour 'til I die are indeed dying out.

    I thought Christchurch under current boundaries was about as safe a seat as one can get.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Just come back from seeing Lisa Nandy speak.

    My review: she’s getting my vote. She gets it.

    It is a pity that our membership in the south don't see the need to have a leader who gets it.
    Tory Leavers may prefer Nandy but will vote for Boris anyway, Tory and LD and SNP Remainers might switch though to a Starmer led Labour
    Please explain how SNP voters find Starmer attractive. Genuinely inquisitive, as I have never seen any Scottish Unionist commentators making this claim.
    Starmer will not cut it with the Scots
    He would actually be the most popular Labour leader with Scots since Brown
    An English North London elite lawyer being popular in Scotland for labour. - not a chance
    Read the polls, he polls higher in Scotland than England and went to uni in Leeds not the South for undergrad.

    Sturgeon is also an elite lawyer anyway
    In what sense is she an “elite lawyer”?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,276

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    Jonathan said:

    ydoethur said:

    Jonathan said:

    ydoethur said:

    I don't think Starmer's non answer on Trident will harm him. It hasn't harmed the SNP in Scotland - people just don't believe it's the bedrock of our security. I wonder actually if he's not thinking of trying to entice back SNP supporters actually. SNP are going through very squally times, set to get worse. It has been said that Labour cannot win except through Scotland.

    In nine years, Labour’s vote has halved, while the Tories have increased theirs 50% and the SNP vote has almost trebled.

    Winning that back is not going to be at all easy. At the moment, it’s still going the wrong way, and even the nationwide surge in 2017 barely registered.
    How has Labours vote halved in 9 years?
    In Scotland! From 1,035,528 to 511,838.
    All the more remarkable given the Labour vote has grown by about 2M overall in the same time.
    Labour’s vote has risen in Wales since 2005 - from 591,000 to 632,000 - but their number of seats has fallen from 30 to 22. It’s a sign that should worry Labour that their vote is becoming grossly inefficient.
    Yet they still win most votes and seats, Plaid and the LDs are hapless in Wales and the Tories too entrenched in North and Mid Wales while Labour dominates the populous South
    Tories were close behind them this time in terms of votes and they ran them much closer than you might think in many seats in the valleys. I am still working on that thread header.
    If the Tories did not win Wales in 2019 with a majority of 80 they likely never will
    If the Tories could not break through in the North East in 1983 with a majority of 144 they likely never will.

    But they did.
    Labour won most North East seats in 2019 too
    ...but you understand where Ydoethur is coming from. There are no longer any safe Labour seats.

    On the other hand Christchurch will always be Tory.
    East Ham and Knowsley, Leyton, Hackney, Tottenham, Liverpool and Manchester beg to differ.

    The LDs won Christchurch in 1993
    Just think Scotland. Anything is possible. The generations of Labour 'til I die are indeed dying out.

    I thought Christchurch under current boundaries was about as safe a seat as one can get.
    The SNP overtook Labour on the centre left not the right
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Just come back from seeing Lisa Nandy speak.

    My review: she’s getting my vote. She gets it.

    It is a pity that our membership in the south don't see the need to have a leader who gets it.
    Tory Leavers may prefer Nandy but will vote for Boris anyway, Tory and LD and SNP Remainers might switch though to a Starmer led Labour
    Please explain how SNP voters find Starmer attractive. Genuinely inquisitive, as I have never seen any Scottish Unionist commentators making this claim.
    He had a net positive rating in Scotland with Mori
    So did Ruth Davidson. Bugger all use it did her.
    We know Ruth Davidson was hitting home due to the constant nationalist attacks on her.
    Indeed. British nationalist attacks.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/07/29/boris-johnson-ruth-davidson-strike-fragile-truce-scotland-summit/
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,276
    matt said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Just come back from seeing Lisa Nandy speak.

    My review: she’s getting my vote. She gets it.

    It is a pity that our membership in the south don't see the need to have a leader who gets it.
    Tory Leavers may prefer Nandy but will vote for Boris anyway, Tory and LD and SNP Remainers might switch though to a Starmer led Labour
    Please explain how SNP voters find Starmer attractive. Genuinely inquisitive, as I have never seen any Scottish Unionist commentators making this claim.
    Starmer will not cut it with the Scots
    He would actually be the most popular Labour leader with Scots since Brown
    An English North London elite lawyer being popular in Scotland for labour. - not a chance
    Read the polls, he polls higher in Scotland than England and went to uni in Leeds not the South for undergrad.

    Sturgeon is also an elite lawyer anyway
    In what sense is she an “elite lawyer”?
    She studied law at Glasgow university, an ancient Scottish university and worked for a top Scotiish law firm
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,551
    edited February 2020
    Pulpstar said:

    Warren up to 19% in new poll.

    Still 120/1 against her being the Democrat nominee.

    I'm assuming Sanders has got the nomination and I'm now modelling Trump v. Sanders by state using the RCP average state poll of Trump v. Sanders.

    Bernie could lose:
    Colorado (40% chance) 9 votes
    Nevada (50%) 6
    Virginia (30%) 13

    and gain:
    Michigan (90%) 16
    N Carolina (10%) 15
    Pennsylvania (60%) 20

    Overall Trump v. Sanders: 273 v 263

    But possible range is huge from 336 v 200 to 206 v 330 (if Bernie wins Florida which is just possible).
  • HYUFD said:

    Just come back from seeing Lisa Nandy speak.

    My review: she’s getting my vote. She gets it.

    It is a pity that our membership in the south don't see the need to have a leader who gets it.
    Tory Leavers may prefer Nandy but will vote for Boris anyway, Tory and LD and SNP Remainers might switch though to a Starmer led Labour
    Please explain how SNP voters find Starmer attractive. Genuinely inquisitive, as I have never seen any Scottish Unionist commentators making this claim.
    Starmer will not cut it with the Scots
    Of course he won’t. But that is not his function. He has to cut it with the English.

    Jury’s out, but he just might do it.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190


    With an open-tied moron like Drakeford running the show anything is possible. If Plaid hadn't imploded they could have taken up the slack.

    Boris didn't put off my Brexiteer contacts, they loved him. I can't think of many Tory MPs in Wales that have as much charisma as Boris has in his little finger. They are indeed as uninspiring as Labour politicians in Wales, and as for Tory AMs are concerned, Drakeford looks almost human by contrast.

    As stodge said, "nothing lasts forever - one day the Conservatives will find themselves on the wrong side of opinion and on the wrong end of an election result."

    The same is true for Llafur.

    They have been in power for 20 years. A generation has grown up under Welsh Labour. Wales has become poorer and more depressed, its health and education are the worst of the 4 nations that comprise the UK, and there is endemic corruption in Cardiff Bay (there is no register of lobbyists and special interest groups, unlike elsewhere).

    Labour richly deserves to lose power in Wales, judged on their achievements and record since 1999.

    And I am not anti-Labour. I like Labour MPs like David Lammy who fight for their people. My whole despairing argument with Welsh Labour is that they are not fighting for Wales and the Welsh. If they were, I would vote for them.
    Labour are shockingly complacent in Wales. I just don't believe the Tories in Wales have much in the tank. If Boris' star continues its ascent they might piggyback a rainbow coalition in Cardiff Bay on the back of his popularity.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,276

    HYUFD said:

    Just come back from seeing Lisa Nandy speak.

    My review: she’s getting my vote. She gets it.

    It is a pity that our membership in the south don't see the need to have a leader who gets it.
    Tory Leavers may prefer Nandy but will vote for Boris anyway, Tory and LD and SNP Remainers might switch though to a Starmer led Labour
    Please explain how SNP voters find Starmer attractive. Genuinely inquisitive, as I have never seen any Scottish Unionist commentators making this claim.
    Starmer will not cut it with the Scots
    Of course he won’t. But that is not his function. He has to cut it with the English.

    Jury’s out, but he just might do it.
    Starmer has a plus 5% rating with the English and plus 7% with Scots

    https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/low-public-awareness-all-labour-leadership-candidates-although-keir-starmer-starting-stronger
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,893
    Barnesian said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Warren up to 19% in new poll.

    Still 120/1 against her being the Democrat nominee.

    I'm assuming Sanders has got the nomination and I'm now modelling Trump v. Sanders by state using the RCP average state poll of Trump v. Sanders.

    Bernie could lose:
    Colorado (40% chance) 9 votes
    Nevada (50%) 6
    Virginia (30%) 13

    and gain:
    Michigan (90%) 16
    N Carolina (10%) 15
    Pennsylvania (60%) 20

    Overall Trump v. Sanders: 273 v 263

    But possible range is huge from 336 v 200 to 206 v 330 (if Bernie wins Florida which is just possible).
    I think Florida would be very difficult for Sanders, most of the voters there are even older than he is.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    edited February 2020
    HYUFD said:

    matt said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Just come back from seeing Lisa Nandy speak.

    My review: she’s getting my vote. She gets it.

    It is a pity that our membership in the south don't see the need to have a leader who gets it.
    Tory Leavers may prefer Nandy but will vote for Boris anyway, Tory and LD and SNP Remainers might switch though to a Starmer led Labour
    Please explain how SNP voters find Starmer attractive. Genuinely inquisitive, as I have never seen any Scottish Unionist commentators making this claim.
    Starmer will not cut it with the Scots
    He would actually be the most popular Labour leader with Scots since Brown
    An English North London elite lawyer being popular in Scotland for labour. - not a chance
    Read the polls, he polls higher in Scotland than England and went to uni in Leeds not the South for undergrad.

    Sturgeon is also an elite lawyer anyway
    In what sense is she an “elite lawyer”?
    She studied law at Glasgow university, an ancient Scottish university and worked for a top Scotiish law firm
    According to wiki, she trained at McClure (which went bust, as I’m sure you know) and when worked at an ok local firm and then a free rep unit. She was a lawyer but hardly an “elite” lawyer particularly given she left McClure as a NQ. That’s hardly “elite”.

    Interesting move though. Social conscience or already thinking of a political career. It can be both of course.

    Edit. Richard Burgon has a Cantab. degree and acted as a solicitor in one of the better TU solicitors. All the evidence suggests that he’s a retard.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Barnesian said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Warren up to 19% in new poll.

    Still 120/1 against her being the Democrat nominee.

    I'm assuming Sanders has got the nomination and I'm now modelling Trump v. Sanders by state using the RCP average state poll of Trump v. Sanders.

    Bernie could lose:
    Colorado (40% chance) 9 votes
    Nevada (50%) 6
    Virginia (30%) 13

    and gain:
    Michigan (90%) 16
    N Carolina (10%) 15
    Pennsylvania (60%) 20

    Overall Trump v. Sanders: 273 v 263

    But possible range is huge from 336 v 200 to 206 v 330 (if Bernie wins Florida which is just possible).
    I think Florida would be very difficult for Sanders, most of the voters there are even older than he is.
    Also big Cuban population....not exactly fans of Socialism / Communism.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172


    With an open-tied moron like Drakeford running the show anything is possible. If Plaid hadn't imploded they could have taken up the slack.

    Boris didn't put off my Brexiteer contacts, they loved him. I can't think of many Tory MPs in Wales that have as much charisma as Boris has in his little finger. They are indeed as uninspiring as Labour politicians in Wales, and as for Tory AMs are concerned, Drakeford looks almost human by contrast.

    As stodge said, "nothing lasts forever - one day the Conservatives will find themselves on the wrong side of opinion and on the wrong end of an election result."

    The same is true for Llafur.

    They have been in power for 20 years. A generation has grown up under Welsh Labour. Wales has become poorer and more depressed, its health and education are the worst of the 4 nations that comprise the UK, and there is endemic corruption in Cardiff Bay (there is no register of lobbyists and special interest groups, unlike elsewhere).

    Labour richly deserves to lose power in Wales, judged on their achievements and record since 1999.

    And I am not anti-Labour. I like Labour MPs like David Lammy who fight for their people. My whole despairing argument with Welsh Labour is that they are not fighting for Wales and the Welsh. If they were, I would vote for them.
    Labour are shockingly complacent in Wales. I just don't believe the Tories in Wales have much in the tank. If Boris' star continues its ascent they might piggyback a rainbow coalition in Cardiff Bay on the back of his popularity.
    I think both Rhodri Morgan and Carwyn Jones were demonstrably more assured & capable politicians than their Tory opponents.

    Mark Drakeford is worse than Paul Davies.

    There is an opportunity for Adam Price -- although whether he can take it is unclear.

    I could see Wales ending up like Ireland with Lab, Tories and Plaid on very similar numbers of seats.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190
    HYUFD

    I wasn't implying Labour could lose all their formally safe seats to the Tories. They could lose them to the LDs when the Party implodes on a RLB victory.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    edited February 2020
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Just come back from seeing Lisa Nandy speak.

    My review: she’s getting my vote. She gets it.

    It is a pity that our membership in the south don't see the need to have a leader who gets it.
    Tory Leavers may prefer Nandy but will vote for Boris anyway, Tory and LD and SNP Remainers might switch though to a Starmer led Labour
    Please explain how SNP voters find Starmer attractive. Genuinely inquisitive, as I have never seen any Scottish Unionist commentators making this claim.
    He had a net positive rating in Scotland with Mori
    So did Ruth Davidson. Bugger all use it did her.
    Hardly, she won lots of SNP seats in 2016 and more in 2017 but Brexit held her back.

    Starmer is pro single market however and has a plus 7% rating with Scots, higher than his plus 5% rating across the UK

    https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/low-public-awareness-all-labour-leadership-candidates-although-keir-starmer-starting-stronger
    Ruth Davidson was just another Tory loser.

    Her claim to fame was that she wasn’t as big a loser as David McLetchie, Annabel Goldie or Jim Murphy. Not much of a field.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789


    With an open-tied moron like Drakeford running the show anything is possible. If Plaid hadn't imploded they could have taken up the slack.

    Boris didn't put off my Brexiteer contacts, they loved him. I can't think of many Tory MPs in Wales that have as much charisma as Boris has in his little finger. They are indeed as uninspiring as Labour politicians in Wales, and as for Tory AMs are concerned, Drakeford looks almost human by contrast.

    As stodge said, "nothing lasts forever - one day the Conservatives will find themselves on the wrong side of opinion and on the wrong end of an election result."

    The same is true for Llafur.

    They have been in power for 20 years. A generation has grown up under Welsh Labour. Wales has become poorer and more depressed, its health and education are the worst of the 4 nations that comprise the UK, and there is endemic corruption in Cardiff Bay (there is no register of lobbyists and special interest groups, unlike elsewhere).

    Labour richly deserves to lose power in Wales, judged on their achievements and record since 1999.

    And I am not anti-Labour. I like Labour MPs like David Lammy who fight for their people. My whole despairing argument with Welsh Labour is that they are not fighting for Wales and the Welsh. If they were, I would vote for them.
    Labour are shockingly complacent in Wales. I just don't believe the Tories in Wales have much in the tank. If Boris' star continues its ascent they might piggyback a rainbow coalition in Cardiff Bay on the back of his popularity.
    I think both Rhodri Morgan and Carwyn Jones were demonstrably more assured & capable politicians than their Tory opponents.

    Mark Drakeford is worse than Paul Davies.

    There is an opportunity for Adam Price -- although whether he can take it is unclear.

    I could see Wales ending up like Ireland with Lab, Tories and Plaid on very similar numbers of seats.
    Where would P.C. gain, in your view? Given they are, lacking, to be charitable, skilled or charismatic leadership. Is it by default?
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,147
    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    felix said:

    Sometimes avoiding an answer is confidence and giving one is over compensating.

    https://twitter.com/joeIjoeIjoel/status/1231562554931138561?s=20

    I suppose we should be grateful that Nandy wasn't asked if she would press the button to keep the Union intact.

    I'm stunned that Starmer failed to answer. The Tories will be delighted at that hostage to fortune.
    This does show how flawed Starmer is. He is so frightened of his support he cannot give an honest answer in case he upsets them

    And so many think he is the messiah when plainly he is no leader
    On the contrary, Starmer has clearly thought about it. Good for him.
    No he hasn't. His answer was not that of someone who is a leader

    The honest answer is yes or no
    Total rubbish.
    There's nothing like a thoughful response to a serious post.

  • With an open-tied moron like Drakeford running the show anything is possible. If Plaid hadn't imploded they could have taken up the slack.

    Boris didn't put off my Brexiteer contacts, they loved him. I can't think of many Tory MPs in Wales that have as much charisma as Boris has in his little finger. They are indeed as uninspiring as Labour politicians in Wales, and as for Tory AMs are concerned, Drakeford looks almost human by contrast.

    As stodge said, "nothing lasts forever - one day the Conservatives will find themselves on the wrong side of opinion and on the wrong end of an election result."

    The same is true for Llafur.

    They have been in power for 20 years. A generation has grown up under Welsh Labour. Wales has become poorer and more depressed, its health and education are the worst of the 4 nations that comprise the UK, and there is endemic corruption in Cardiff Bay (there is no register of lobbyists and special interest groups, unlike elsewhere).

    Labour richly deserves to lose power in Wales, judged on their achievements and record since 1999.

    And I am not anti-Labour. I like Labour MPs like David Lammy who fight for their people. My whole despairing argument with Welsh Labour is that they are not fighting for Wales and the Welsh. If they were, I would vote for them.
    Labour are shockingly complacent in Wales. I just don't believe the Tories in Wales have much in the tank. If Boris' star continues its ascent they might piggyback a rainbow coalition in Cardiff Bay on the back of his popularity.
    I think both Rhodri Morgan and Carwyn Jones were demonstrably more assured & capable politicians than their Tory opponents.

    Mark Drakeford is worse than Paul Davies.

    There is an opportunity for Adam Price -- although whether he can take it is unclear.

    I could see Wales ending up like Ireland with Lab, Tories and Plaid on very similar numbers of seats.
    As a Labour member I agree Drakeford has the charisma of a dead dog, but have you ever met Paul Davies? He needs a charisma transfusion as well.
    I know Rhodri could be a bit verbose, and his fake Caaardiff accent hid his classical education, but he connected better with the electorate than any subsequent party leader in Wales.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190


    With an open-tied moron like Drakeford running the show anything is possible. If Plaid hadn't imploded they could have taken up the slack.

    Boris didn't put off my Brexiteer contacts, they loved him. I can't think of many Tory MPs in Wales that have as much charisma as Boris has in his little finger. They are indeed as uninspiring as Labour politicians in Wales, and as for Tory AMs are concerned, Drakeford looks almost human by contrast.

    As stodge said, "nothing lasts forever - one day the Conservatives will find themselves on the wrong side of opinion and on the wrong end of an election result."

    The same is true for Llafur.

    They have been in power for 20 years. A generation has grown up under Welsh Labour. Wales has become poorer and more depressed, its health and education are the worst of the 4 nations that comprise the UK, and there is endemic corruption in Cardiff Bay (there is no register of lobbyists and special interest groups, unlike elsewhere).

    Labour richly deserves to lose power in Wales, judged on their achievements and record since 1999.

    And I am not anti-Labour. I like Labour MPs like David Lammy who fight for their people. My whole despairing argument with Welsh Labour is that they are not fighting for Wales and the Welsh. If they were, I would vote for them.
    Labour are shockingly complacent in Wales. I just don't believe the Tories in Wales have much in the tank. If Boris' star continues its ascent they might piggyback a rainbow coalition in Cardiff Bay on the back of his popularity.
    I think both Rhodri Morgan and Carwyn Jones were demonstrably more assured & capable politicians than their Tory opponents.

    Mark Drakeford is worse than Paul Davies.

    There is an opportunity for Adam Price -- although whether he can take it is unclear.

    I could see Wales ending up like Ireland with Lab, Tories and Plaid on very similar numbers of seats.
    Adam Price is impressive, sadly for him Plaid are so disorganized that I can't see them making the breakthrough they might have done during Leanne's tenure.

    Drakeford is abysmal.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190
    edited February 2020
    matt said:


    With an open-tied moron like Drakeford running the show anything is possible. If Plaid hadn't imploded they could have taken up the slack.

    Boris didn't put off my Brexiteer contacts, they loved him. I can't think of many Tory MPs in Wales that have as much charisma as Boris has in his little finger. They are indeed as uninspiring as Labour politicians in Wales, and as for Tory AMs are concerned, Drakeford looks almost human by contrast.

    As stodge said, "nothing lasts forever - one day the Conservatives will find themselves on the wrong side of opinion and on the wrong end of an election result."

    The same is true for Llafur.

    They have been in power for 20 years. A generation has grown up under Welsh Labour. Wales has become poorer and more depressed, its health and education are the worst of the 4 nations that comprise the UK, and there is endemic corruption in Cardiff Bay (there is no register of lobbyists and special interest groups, unlike elsewhere).

    Labour richly deserves to lose power in Wales, judged on their achievements and record since 1999.

    And I am not anti-Labour. I like Labour MPs like David Lammy who fight for their people. My whole despairing argument with Welsh Labour is that they are not fighting for Wales and the Welsh. If they were, I would vote for them.
    Labour are shockingly complacent in Wales. I just don't believe the Tories in Wales have much in the tank. If Boris' star continues its ascent they might piggyback a rainbow coalition in Cardiff Bay on the back of his popularity.
    I think both Rhodri Morgan and Carwyn Jones were demonstrably more assured & capable politicians than their Tory opponents.

    Mark Drakeford is worse than Paul Davies.

    There is an opportunity for Adam Price -- although whether he can take it is unclear.

    I could see Wales ending up like Ireland with Lab, Tories and Plaid on very similar numbers of seats.
    Where would P.C. gain, in your view? Given they are, lacking, to be charitable, skilled or charismatic leadership. Is it by default?
    No, Price is a good leader. He just hasn't got much to lead.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Just come back from seeing Lisa Nandy speak.

    My review: she’s getting my vote. She gets it.

    It is a pity that our membership in the south don't see the need to have a leader who gets it.
    Tory Leavers may prefer Nandy but will vote for Boris anyway, Tory and LD and SNP Remainers might switch though to a Starmer led Labour
    Please explain how SNP voters find Starmer attractive. Genuinely inquisitive, as I have never seen any Scottish Unionist commentators making this claim.
    He had a net positive rating in Scotland with Mori
    So did Ruth Davidson. Bugger all use it did her.
    Hardly, she won lots of SNP seats in 2016 and more in 2017 but Brexit held her back.

    Starmer is pro single market however and has a plus 7% rating with Scots, higher than his plus 5% rating across the UK

    https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/low-public-awareness-all-labour-leadership-candidates-although-keir-starmer-starting-stronger
    Then Jackson Coleslaw took the party backwards and was punished by being elected permanent leader.
    Rewarding failure never used to be a Tory thing. The only reason Carlaw survived the chop is because the rest of them have mince for brains.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,147
    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    felix said:

    Sometimes avoiding an answer is confidence and giving one is over compensating.

    https://twitter.com/joeIjoeIjoel/status/1231562554931138561?s=20

    I suppose we should be grateful that Nandy wasn't asked if she would press the button to keep the Union intact.

    I'm stunned that Starmer failed to answer. The Tories will be delighted at that hostage to fortune.
    https://twitter.com/BBCRichardMoss/status/1231559476005744642?s=20
    Starmer’s position, while arguably a cop out, is perfectly sensible. After all, no PM reveals the contents of the sealed letter they write to SSBN commanders.
    It reminds me of Corbyn fence-sitting on Brexit - how did that work out for him in December?
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    valleyboy said:


    With an open-tied moron like Drakeford running the show anything is possible. If Plaid hadn't imploded they could have taken up the slack.

    Boris didn't put off my Brexiteer contacts, they loved him. I can't think of many Tory MPs in Wales that have as much charisma as Boris has in his little finger. They are indeed as uninspiring as Labour politicians in Wales, and as for Tory AMs are concerned, Drakeford looks almost human by contrast.

    As stodge said, "nothing lasts forever - one day the Conservatives will find themselves on the wrong side of opinion and on the wrong end of an election result."

    The same is true for Llafur.

    They have been in power for 20 years. A generation has grown up under Welsh Labour. Wales has become poorer and more depressed, its health and education are the worst of the 4 nations that comprise the UK, and there is endemic corruption in Cardiff Bay (there is no register of lobbyists and special interest groups, unlike elsewhere).

    Labour richly deserves to lose power in Wales, judged on their achievements and record since 1999.

    And I am not anti-Labour. I like Labour MPs like David Lammy who fight for their people. My whole despairing argument with Welsh Labour is that they are not fighting for Wales and the Welsh. If they were, I would vote for them.
    Labour are shockingly complacent in Wales. I just don't believe the Tories in Wales have much in the tank. If Boris' star continues its ascent they might piggyback a rainbow coalition in Cardiff Bay on the back of his popularity.
    I think both Rhodri Morgan and Carwyn Jones were demonstrably more assured & capable politicians than their Tory opponents.

    Mark Drakeford is worse than Paul Davies.

    There is an opportunity for Adam Price -- although whether he can take it is unclear.

    I could see Wales ending up like Ireland with Lab, Tories and Plaid on very similar numbers of seats.
    As a Labour member I agree Drakeford has the charisma of a dead dog, but have you ever met Paul Davies? He needs a charisma transfusion as well.
    I know Rhodri could be a bit verbose, and his fake Caaardiff accent hid his classical education, but he connected better with the electorate than any subsequent party leader in Wales.
    Devolution was a big mistake - a self inflicted wound which has come back to haunt Labour. I would be very happy to see Johnson try to abolish the Assembly - at the very least hold another Referendum to ascertain whether people still want it.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154


    With an open-tied moron like Drakeford running the show anything is possible. If Plaid hadn't imploded they could have taken up the slack.

    Boris didn't put off my Brexiteer contacts, they loved him. I can't think of many Tory MPs in Wales that have as much charisma as Boris has in his little finger. They are indeed as uninspiring as Labour politicians in Wales, and as for Tory AMs are concerned, Drakeford looks almost human by contrast.

    As stodge said, "nothing lasts forever - one day the Conservatives will find themselves on the wrong side of opinion and on the wrong end of an election result."

    The same is true for Llafur.

    They have been in power for 20 years. A generation has grown up under Welsh Labour. Wales has become poorer and more depressed, its health and education are the worst of the 4 nations that comprise the UK, and there is endemic corruption in Cardiff Bay (there is no register of lobbyists and special interest groups, unlike elsewhere).

    Labour richly deserves to lose power in Wales, judged on their achievements and record since 1999.

    And I am not anti-Labour. I like Labour MPs like David Lammy who fight for their people. My whole despairing argument with Welsh Labour is that they are not fighting for Wales and the Welsh. If they were, I would vote for them.
    Labour are shockingly complacent in Wales. I just don't believe the Tories in Wales have much in the tank. If Boris' star continues its ascent they might piggyback a rainbow coalition in Cardiff Bay on the back of his popularity.
    Plaid will be in no hurry to enter any coalition with the Tories led by Boris Johnson, and there is no certainty now that Kirsty Williams will survive. Confidence and supply would be the best the Tories could hope for, but for that they have to be the largest party by some margin.

    Not impossible given Labour’s travails, but not easy.

    BTW, the Tories have a serious problem with lack of diversity. All their leading politicians are called Davies. Very confusing.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Just come back from seeing Lisa Nandy speak.

    My review: she’s getting my vote. She gets it.

    I think Lisa is the only sane choice for labour and would vote for her if I had a vote

    RLB is over and Starmer is not a leader
    Starmer is a leader. But Nandy is good too. Both are better than Boris.
    Well that is predictable but no signs that labour are making progress

    I know your opinion on Boris but he is there for five years if he wants to be and none of the labour leaders will see an 80 seat majority
    If only we had your independent viewpoint BigG. You lasted all of five minutes outside the party.
    You have no idea about my membership of the party.

    I voted for Blair twice and apart from Iraq he would be a winning labour leader again today
    You resigned last year and made a big song and dance about it here. You then came running back and are now reinstalled as a cheerleader.
    Along with millions of others though I have my reservations on Boris as I have expressed on here from time to time
    Not for a while, you have become more of a Boris fanboy than HYUFD'.
    Now that is not true
    I can’t find an emoji for an extending nose.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789

    matt said:


    With an open-tied moron like Drakeford running the show anything is possible. If Plaid hadn't imploded they could have taken up the slack.

    Boris didn't put off my Brexiteer contacts, they loved him. I can't think of many Tory MPs in Wales that have as much charisma as Boris has in his little finger. They are indeed as uninspiring as Labour politicians in Wales, and as for Tory AMs are concerned, Drakeford looks almost human by contrast.

    As stodge said, "nothing lasts forever - one day the Conservatives will find themselves on the wrong side of opinion and on the wrong end of an election result."

    The same is true for Llafur.

    They have been in power for 20 years. A generation has grown up under Welsh Labour. Wales has become poorer and more depressed, its health and education are the worst of the 4 nations that comprise the UK, and there is endemic corruption in Cardiff Bay (there is no register of lobbyists and special interest groups, unlike elsewhere).

    Labour richly deserves to lose power in Wales, judged on their achievements and record since 1999.

    And I am not anti-Labour. I like Labour MPs like David Lammy who fight for their people. My whole despairing argument with Welsh Labour is that they are not fighting for Wales and the Welsh. If they were, I would vote for them.
    Labour are shockingly complacent in Wales. I just don't believe the Tories in Wales have much in the tank. If Boris' star continues its ascent they might piggyback a rainbow coalition in Cardiff Bay on the back of his popularity.
    I think both Rhodri Morgan and Carwyn Jones were demonstrably more assured & capable politicians than their Tory opponents.

    Mark Drakeford is worse than Paul Davies.

    There is an opportunity for Adam Price -- although whether he can take it is unclear.

    I could see Wales ending up like Ireland with Lab, Tories and Plaid on very similar numbers of seats.
    Where would P.C. gain, in your view? Given they are, lacking, to be charitable, skilled or charismatic leadership. Is it by default?
    No, Price is a good leader. He just hasn't got much to lead.
    Interesting. That’s not the view of people I know. But Monmouthshire is just England with added daffodil....
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    matt said:

    We are closing everything here in Italy because of the coronavirus

    10 municipalites are locked down with police now controlling exit routes.

    Cinema and theaters are ordered to close in Lombardy region. Pubs should close after 6pm

    Schools and universities are closed in Lombardy, Veneto, Friuli, Piemonte and Trentino since tomorrow.

    Masses have been canceled in all churches located in Lombardy starting from this evening. The same order have just been given by the bishop of Venice.
    The Milan cathedral is going to be closed tomorrow

    How exciting. I have to go to Milan next week (albeit Malpensa, so nowhere near downtown Milan), having been in Shanghai in January. Perhaps I should just think of it as a form of Chinese roulette.

    You’re most at risk on the flight, I’d have thought.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    edited February 2020
    matt said:



    Where would P.C. gain, in your view? Given they are, lacking, to be charitable, skilled or charismatic leadership. Is it by default?

    I think that is a little unfair on Adam Price. At least, the media called his performance in the GE debates as excellent.

    It is often forgotten but at the devolved elections in 1999, Plaid Cymru did at least as well as the SNP.

    Since then, Plaid have made a lot of bad decisions (starting with getting rid of the leader who led them to such a good result in 1999).

    Seats they took in 1999 that they could hope to take again in 2021 include Aberconwy, Llanelli & Islwyn. They are also very close in Cardiff West & Blaenau Gwent, as judged by the last Assembly elections.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    justin124 said:

    valleyboy said:


    With an open-tied moron like Drakeford running the show anything is possible. If Plaid hadn't imploded they could have taken up the slack.

    Boris didn't put off my Brexiteer contacts, they loved him. I can't think of many Tory MPs in Wales that have as much charisma as Boris has in his little finger. They are indeed as uninspiring as Labour politicians in Wales, and as for Tory AMs are concerned, Drakeford looks almost human by contrast.

    As stodge said, "nothing lasts forever - one day the Conservatives will find themselves on the wrong side of opinion and on the wrong end of an election result."

    The same is true for Llafur.

    They have been in power for 20 years. A generation has grown up under Welsh Labour. Wales has become poorer and more depressed, its health and education are the worst of the 4 nations that comprise the UK, and there is endemic corruption in Cardiff Bay (there is no register of lobbyists and special interest groups, unlike elsewhere).

    Labour richly deserves to lose power in Wales, judged on their achievements and record since 1999.

    And I am not anti-Labour. I like Labour MPs like David Lammy who fight for their people. My whole despairing argument with Welsh Labour is that they are not fighting for Wales and the Welsh. If they were, I would vote for them.
    Labour are shockingly complacent in Wales. I just don't believe the Tories in Wales have much in the tank. If Boris' star continues its ascent they might piggyback a rainbow coalition in Cardiff Bay on the back of his popularity.
    I think both Rhodri Morgan and Carwyn Jones were demonstrably more assured & capable politicians than their Tory opponents.

    Mark Drakeford is worse than Paul Davies.

    There is an opportunity for Adam Price -- although whether he can take it is unclear.

    I could see Wales ending up like Ireland with Lab, Tories and Plaid on very similar numbers of seats.
    As a Labour member I agree Drakeford has the charisma of a dead dog, but have you ever met Paul Davies? He needs a charisma transfusion as well.
    I know Rhodri could be a bit verbose, and his fake Caaardiff accent hid his classical education, but he connected better with the electorate than any subsequent party leader in Wales.
    Devolution was a big mistake - a self inflicted wound which has come back to haunt Labour. I would be very happy to see Johnson try to abolish the Assembly - at the very least hold another Referendum to ascertain whether people still want it.
    Speaking for myself, I have had a bellyful of referendums.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    IanB2 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Just come back from seeing Lisa Nandy speak.

    My review: she’s getting my vote. She gets it.

    I think Lisa is the only sane choice for labour and would vote for her if I had a vote

    RLB is over and Starmer is not a leader
    Starmer is a leader. But Nandy is good too. Both are better than Boris.
    Well that is predictable but no signs that labour are making progress

    I know your opinion on Boris but he is there for five years if he wants to be and none of the labour leaders will see an 80 seat majority
    If only we had your independent viewpoint BigG. You lasted all of five minutes outside the party.
    You have no idea about my membership of the party.

    I voted for Blair twice and apart from Iraq he would be a winning labour leader again today
    You resigned last year and made a big song and dance about it here. You then came running back and are now reinstalled as a cheerleader.
    Along with millions of others though I have my reservations on Boris as I have expressed on here from time to time
    Not for a while, you have become more of a Boris fanboy than HYUFD'.
    Now that is not true
    I can’t find an emoji for an extending nose.
    🤥
  • matt said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Just come back from seeing Lisa Nandy speak.

    My review: she’s getting my vote. She gets it.

    It is a pity that our membership in the south don't see the need to have a leader who gets it.
    Tory Leavers may prefer Nandy but will vote for Boris anyway, Tory and LD and SNP Remainers might switch though to a Starmer led Labour
    Please explain how SNP voters find Starmer attractive. Genuinely inquisitive, as I have never seen any Scottish Unionist commentators making this claim.
    Starmer will not cut it with the Scots
    He would actually be the most popular Labour leader with Scots since Brown
    An English North London elite lawyer being popular in Scotland for labour. - not a chance
    Read the polls, he polls higher in Scotland than England and went to uni in Leeds not the South for undergrad.

    Sturgeon is also an elite lawyer anyway
    In what sense is she an “elite lawyer”?
    My reaction too. Unless being a solicitor makes you “elite” these days?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,170

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    Jonathan said:

    ydoethur said:

    Jonathan said:

    ydoethur said:

    I don't think Starmer's non answer on Trident will harm him. It hasn't harmed the SNP in Scotland - people just don't believe it's the bedrock of our security. I wonder actually if he's not thinking of trying to entice back SNP supporters actually. SNP are going through very squally times, set to get worse. It has been said that Labour cannot win except through Scotland.

    In nine years, Labour’s vote has halved, while the Tories have increased theirs 50% and the SNP vote has almost trebled.

    Winning that back is not going to be at all easy. At the moment, it’s still going the wrong way, and even the nationwide surge in 2017 barely registered.
    How has Labours vote halved in 9 years?
    In Scotland! From 1,035,528 to 511,838.
    All the more remarkable given the Labour vote has grown by about 2M overall in the same time.
    Labour’s vote has risen in Wales since 2005 - from 591,000 to 632,000 - but their number of seats has fallen from 30 to 22. It’s a sign that should worry Labour that their vote is becoming grossly inefficient.
    Yet they still win most votes and seats, Plaid and the LDs are hapless in Wales and the Tories too entrenched in North and Mid Wales while Labour dominates the populous South
    Tories were close behind them this time in terms of votes and they ran them much closer than you might think in many seats in the valleys. I am still working on that thread header.
    If the Tories did not win Wales in 2019 with a majority of 80 they likely never will
    If the Tories could not break through in the North East in 1983 with a majority of 144 they likely never will.

    But they did.
    Labour won most North East seats in 2019 too
    ...but you understand where Ydoethur is coming from. There are no longer any safe Labour seats.

    On the other hand Christchurch will always be Tory.
    Most of the seats in Merseyside, Manchester and east London are safe for Labour.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154

    matt said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Just come back from seeing Lisa Nandy speak.

    My review: she’s getting my vote. She gets it.

    It is a pity that our membership in the south don't see the need to have a leader who gets it.
    Tory Leavers may prefer Nandy but will vote for Boris anyway, Tory and LD and SNP Remainers might switch though to a Starmer led Labour
    Please explain how SNP voters find Starmer attractive. Genuinely inquisitive, as I have never seen any Scottish Unionist commentators making this claim.
    Starmer will not cut it with the Scots
    He would actually be the most popular Labour leader with Scots since Brown
    An English North London elite lawyer being popular in Scotland for labour. - not a chance
    Read the polls, he polls higher in Scotland than England and went to uni in Leeds not the South for undergrad.

    Sturgeon is also an elite lawyer anyway
    In what sense is she an “elite lawyer”?
    My reaction too. Unless being a solicitor makes you “elite” these days?
    According to Richard Burgon it brings in only a modest wage...
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    Must be almost time for Eadric’s nightly sober assessment of the latest news on the killer virus?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190
    felix said:

    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    felix said:

    Sometimes avoiding an answer is confidence and giving one is over compensating.

    https://twitter.com/joeIjoeIjoel/status/1231562554931138561?s=20

    I suppose we should be grateful that Nandy wasn't asked if she would press the button to keep the Union intact.

    I'm stunned that Starmer failed to answer. The Tories will be delighted at that hostage to fortune.
    https://twitter.com/BBCRichardMoss/status/1231559476005744642?s=20
    Starmer’s position, while arguably a cop out, is perfectly sensible. After all, no PM reveals the contents of the sealed letter they write to SSBN commanders.
    It reminds me of Corbyn fence-sitting on Brexit - how did that work out for him in December?
    For goodness sake, if Starmer says he wants to nuke Russia he loses, if Bailey had said no she would never use nukes she wins. As it is Starmer has pleaded the 5th and done himself no harm with the selectorate. Bailey on the other hand, by saying yes has turned herself into Ronald Reagan.
  • IanB2 said:

    matt said:

    We are closing everything here in Italy because of the coronavirus

    10 municipalites are locked down with police now controlling exit routes.

    Cinema and theaters are ordered to close in Lombardy region. Pubs should close after 6pm

    Schools and universities are closed in Lombardy, Veneto, Friuli, Piemonte and Trentino since tomorrow.

    Masses have been canceled in all churches located in Lombardy starting from this evening. The same order have just been given by the bishop of Venice.
    The Milan cathedral is going to be closed tomorrow

    How exciting. I have to go to Milan next week (albeit Malpensa, so nowhere near downtown Milan), having been in Shanghai in January. Perhaps I should just think of it as a form of Chinese roulette.

    You’re most at risk on the flight, I’d have thought.
    Austria has just stopped an Italian train at their border
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Just come back from seeing Lisa Nandy speak.

    My review: she’s getting my vote. She gets it.

    It is a pity that our membership in the south don't see the need to have a leader who gets it.
    Tory Leavers may prefer Nandy but will vote for Boris anyway, Tory and LD and SNP Remainers might switch though to a Starmer led Labour
    Please explain how SNP voters find Starmer attractive. Genuinely inquisitive, as I have never seen any Scottish Unionist commentators making this claim.
    Starmer will not cut it with the Scots
    Of course he won’t. But that is not his function. He has to cut it with the English.

    Jury’s out, but he just might do it.
    Starmer has a plus 5% rating with the English and plus 7% with Scots

    https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/low-public-awareness-all-labour-leadership-candidates-although-keir-starmer-starting-stronger
    Comparing one sub sample with another sub sample and getting excited about a supposed two point difference. Even the properly-weighted headline figure had a three point MoE.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    ydoethur said:



    Plaid will be in no hurry to enter any coalition with the Tories led by Boris Johnson, and there is no certainty now that Kirsty Williams will survive. Confidence and supply would be the best the Tories could hope for, but for that they have to be the largest party by some margin.

    Not impossible given Labour’s travails, but not easy.

    BTW, the Tories have a serious problem with lack of diversity. All their leading politicians are called Davies. Very confusing.

    When are we getting your thread header? Do hurry!
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Just come back from seeing Lisa Nandy speak.

    My review: she’s getting my vote. She gets it.

    I think Lisa is the only sane choice for labour and would vote for her if I had a vote

    RLB is over and Starmer is not a leader
    Starmer is a leader. But Nandy is good too. Both are better than Boris.
    Well that is predictable but no signs that labour are making progress

    I know your opinion on Boris but he is there for five years if he wants to be and none of the labour leaders will see an 80 seat majority
    If only we had your independent viewpoint BigG. You lasted all of five minutes outside the party.
    You have no idea about my membership of the party.

    I voted for Blair twice and apart from Iraq he would be a winning labour leader again today
    You resigned last year and made a big song and dance about it here. You then came running back and are now reinstalled as a cheerleader.
    Along with millions of others though I have my reservations on Boris as I have expressed on here from time to time
    Not for a while, you have become more of a Boris fanboy than HYUFD'.
    Now that is not true
    Of course it is you are a Tory sheep first, last and for ever
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154

    ydoethur said:



    Plaid will be in no hurry to enter any coalition with the Tories led by Boris Johnson, and there is no certainty now that Kirsty Williams will survive. Confidence and supply would be the best the Tories could hope for, but for that they have to be the largest party by some margin.

    Not impossible given Labour’s travails, but not easy.

    BTW, the Tories have a serious problem with lack of diversity. All their leading politicians are called Davies. Very confusing.

    When are we getting your thread header? Do hurry!
    When I have a few minutes to finish it! I am not sure when that will be.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774

    IanB2 said:

    matt said:

    We are closing everything here in Italy because of the coronavirus

    10 municipalites are locked down with police now controlling exit routes.

    Cinema and theaters are ordered to close in Lombardy region. Pubs should close after 6pm

    Schools and universities are closed in Lombardy, Veneto, Friuli, Piemonte and Trentino since tomorrow.

    Masses have been canceled in all churches located in Lombardy starting from this evening. The same order have just been given by the bishop of Venice.
    The Milan cathedral is going to be closed tomorrow

    How exciting. I have to go to Milan next week (albeit Malpensa, so nowhere near downtown Milan), having been in Shanghai in January. Perhaps I should just think of it as a form of Chinese roulette.

    You’re most at risk on the flight, I’d have thought.
    Austria has just stopped an Italian train at their border
    What I meant was, being unavoidably confined in any form of transport - plane, ship, train, coach - with travellers from all over for an extended period is surely more risky than actually being in Italy, provided you are sensible.

  • The same is true for Llafur.

    They have been in power for 20 years. A generation has grown up under Welsh Labour. Wales has become poorer and more depressed, its health and education are the worst of the 4 nations that comprise the UK, and there is endemic corruption in Cardiff Bay (there is no register of lobbyists and special interest groups, unlike elsewhere).

    Labour richly deserves to lose power in Wales, judged on their achievements and record since 1999.

    And I am not anti-Labour. I like Labour MPs like David Lammy who fight for their people. My whole despairing argument with Welsh Labour is that they are not fighting for Wales and the Welsh. If they were, I would vote for them.


    Labour are shockingly complacent in Wales. I just don't believe the Tories in Wales have much in the tank. If Boris' star continues its ascent they might piggyback a rainbow coalition in Cardiff Bay on the back of his popularity.

    I think both Rhodri Morgan and Carwyn Jones were demonstrably more assured & capable politicians than their Tory opponents.

    Mark Drakeford is worse than Paul Davies.

    There is an opportunity for Adam Price -- although whether he can take it is unclear.

    I could see Wales ending up like Ireland with Lab, Tories and Plaid on very similar numbers of seats.

    As a Labour member I agree Drakeford has the charisma of a dead dog, but have you ever met Paul Davies? He needs a charisma transfusion as well.
    I know Rhodri could be a bit verbose, and his fake Caaardiff accent hid his classical education, but he connected better with the electorate than any subsequent party leader in Wales.

    Devolution was a big mistake - a self inflicted wound which has come back to haunt Labour. I would be very happy to see Johnson try to abolish the Assembly - at the very least hold another Referendum to ascertain whether people still want it.

    I realise that you were from my neck of the woods originally, but I do find that comment a bit rich coming from someone who has not lived in Wales for a long time.
    I am no nationalist, but it scares me to think where we would be now, if after 10 years of Tory rule, if there had been no devolution. I am happier that Cardiff make bad decisions in my name, than if London was.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,428
    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    Jonathan said:

    ydoethur said:

    Jonathan said:

    ydoethur said:

    I don't think Starmer's non answer on Trident will harm him. It hasn't harmed the SNP in Scotland - people just don't believe it's the bedrock of our security. I wonder actually if he's not thinking of trying to entice back SNP supporters actually. SNP are going through very squally times, set to get worse. It has been said that Labour cannot win except through Scotland.

    In nine years, Labour’s vote has halved, while the Tories have increased theirs 50% and the SNP vote has almost trebled.

    Winning that back is not going to be at all easy. At the moment, it’s still going the wrong way, and even the nationwide surge in 2017 barely registered.
    How has Labours vote halved in 9 years?
    In Scotland! From 1,035,528 to 511,838.
    All the more remarkable given the Labour vote has grown by about 2M overall in the same time.
    Labour’s vote has risen in Wales since 2005 - from 591,000 to 632,000 - but their number of seats has fallen from 30 to 22. It’s a sign that should worry Labour that their vote is becoming grossly inefficient.
    Yet they still win most votes and seats, Plaid and the LDs are hapless in Wales and the Tories too entrenched in North and Mid Wales while Labour dominates the populous South
    Tories were close behind them this time in terms of votes and they ran them much closer than you might think in many seats in the valleys. I am still working on that thread header.
    If the Tories did not win Wales in 2019 with a majority of 80 they likely never will
    If the Tories could not break through in the North East in 1983 with a majority of 144 they likely never will.

    But they did.
    Labour won most North East seats in 2019 too
    ...but you understand where Ydoethur is coming from. There are no longer any safe Labour seats.

    On the other hand Christchurch will always be Tory.
    Most of the seats in Merseyside, Manchester and east London are safe for Labour.
    Just any big inner-city really. Birmingham, Newcastle, Leeds...
  • ydoethur said:


    With an open-tied moron like Drakeford running the show anything is possible. If Plaid hadn't imploded they could have taken up the slack.

    Boris didn't put off my Brexiteer contacts, they loved him. I can't think of many Tory MPs in Wales that have as much charisma as Boris has in his little finger. They are indeed as uninspiring as Labour politicians in Wales, and as for Tory AMs are concerned, Drakeford looks almost human by contrast.

    As stodge said, "nothing lasts forever - one day the Conservatives will find themselves on the wrong side of opinion and on the wrong end of an election result."

    The same is true for Llafur.

    They have been in power for 20 years. A generation has grown up under Welsh Labour. Wales has become poorer and more depressed, its health and education are the worst of the 4 nations that comprise the UK, and there is endemic corruption in Cardiff Bay (there is no register of lobbyists and special interest groups, unlike elsewhere).

    Labour richly deserves to lose power in Wales, judged on their achievements and record since 1999.

    And I am not anti-Labour. I like Labour MPs like David Lammy who fight for their people. My whole despairing argument with Welsh Labour is that they are not fighting for Wales and the Welsh. If they were, I would vote for them.
    Labour are shockingly complacent in Wales. I just don't believe the Tories in Wales have much in the tank. If Boris' star continues its ascent they might piggyback a rainbow coalition in Cardiff Bay on the back of his popularity.
    Plaid will be in no hurry to enter any coalition with the Tories led by Boris Johnson, and there is no certainty now that Kirsty Williams will survive. Confidence and supply would be the best the Tories could hope for, but for that they have to be the largest party by some margin.

    Not impossible given Labour’s travails, but not easy.

    BTW, the Tories have a serious problem with lack of diversity. All their leading politicians are called Davies. Very confusing.
    And farmers.
  • Cyclefree said:

    An excellent header, @Casino_Royale. Thank you.

    Personally I feel that Harry has turned into a whinging petulant child and it is doing him no favours. I’m all for him retiring to a private life but then he needs to stop trying to hang onto the benefits of royal life and commenting on what royal means. His latest outburst is ill-judged. A long period of silence from him would be wise.

    A period of calm and competent getting on with their jobs would be welcome in our institutions.

    Whoever would have imagined that a child of Diana Spencer and Charles Sachsen-Coburg und Gotha would turn out to be a whinging petulant child?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,170
    edited February 2020
    Maybe a stupid question but is coronavirus any more infectious than common flu which causes tens of thousands of deaths every year?

    It's estimated that flu causes around 61,000 deaths each year in the USA, which would be equivalent to about 12,000 a year in the UK.

    https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,551
    edited February 2020
    Pulpstar said:

    Barnesian said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Warren up to 19% in new poll.

    Still 120/1 against her being the Democrat nominee.

    I'm assuming Sanders has got the nomination and I'm now modelling Trump v. Sanders by state using the RCP average state poll of Trump v. Sanders.

    Bernie could lose:
    Colorado (40% chance) 9 votes
    Nevada (50%) 6
    Virginia (30%) 13

    and gain:
    Michigan (90%) 16
    N Carolina (10%) 15
    Pennsylvania (60%) 20

    Overall Trump v. Sanders: 273 v 263

    But possible range is huge from 336 v 200 to 206 v 330 (if Bernie wins Florida which is just possible).
    I think Florida would be very difficult for Sanders, most of the voters there are even older than he is.
    I agree but it is not impossible like many other states. RCP has Sanders with an average 0.3% lead over Trump in Florida. The latest poll was evens. A 0.3% lead translates to a 6% chance in my model. [A zero lead equals no chance. A 5%+ lead equals very good chance, 90% as in Michigan. Interpolated between 0 and 5.]
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    BTW, if anyone has an account with Betfair and would like to ask them for a market for the next Assembly elections, that would help enormously with finishing this thread header.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,825
    Andy_JS said:

    Maybe a stupid question but is coronavirus any more infectious than common flu which causes tens of thousands of deaths every year?

    It's estimated that flu causes around 61,000 deaths each year in the USA, which would be equivalent to about 12,000 a year in the UK.

    https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html

    I think it's much more deadly, which is the problem. Even if it was just as infections that is a lot more deaths.
  • ydoethur said:

    matt said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Just come back from seeing Lisa Nandy speak.

    My review: she’s getting my vote. She gets it.

    It is a pity that our membership in the south don't see the need to have a leader who gets it.
    Tory Leavers may prefer Nandy but will vote for Boris anyway, Tory and LD and SNP Remainers might switch though to a Starmer led Labour
    Please explain how SNP voters find Starmer attractive. Genuinely inquisitive, as I have never seen any Scottish Unionist commentators making this claim.
    Starmer will not cut it with the Scots
    He would actually be the most popular Labour leader with Scots since Brown
    An English North London elite lawyer being popular in Scotland for labour. - not a chance
    Read the polls, he polls higher in Scotland than England and went to uni in Leeds not the South for undergrad.

    Sturgeon is also an elite lawyer anyway
    In what sense is she an “elite lawyer”?
    My reaction too. Unless being a solicitor makes you “elite” these days?
    According to Richard Burgon it brings in only a modest wage...
    I’m sure a lot of solicitors are hard up.

    Artificial Intelligence is going to decimate most legal jobs, so I cannot see a bright future for that group.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    eadric said:

    IanB2 said:

    Must be almost time for Eadric’s nightly sober assessment of the latest news on the killer virus?

    Well, you did ask

    Austria has just stopped an Italian train at the frontier, due a to a potential corona infection

    https://twitter.com/drpatfarrell/status/1231681780266283008?s=20

    Indeed, it seems like ALL train traffic from Italy to Austria is now suspended


    https://twitter.com/chaot67/status/1231681183072866306?s=20

    I did wonder, on this forum last night, if Schenghen open borders would survive the outbreak. My guess is No, if the main infection stays in Italy for now, Italy will be isolated.

    But if it spreads, then there is no point.

    Get yourself along to Parsons Green....

    https://inews.co.uk/news/nhs-drive-thru-coronavirus-test-swab-suspected-cases-in-their-cars-1888333
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,231

    Cyclefree said:

    An excellent header, @Casino_Royale. Thank you.

    Personally I feel that Harry has turned into a whinging petulant child and it is doing him no favours. I’m all for him retiring to a private life but then he needs to stop trying to hang onto the benefits of royal life and commenting on what royal means. His latest outburst is ill-judged. A long period of silence from him would be wise.

    A period of calm and competent getting on with their jobs would be welcome in our institutions.

    Whoever would have imagined that a child of Diana Spencer and Charles Sachsen-Coburg und Gotha would turn out to be a whinging petulant child?
    If he gets any more childish and immature he'll start receiving texts from senior SNP politicians.
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    edited February 2020
    Okay question.

    Starmer has been accused by some of being too Londony, too Southern based but could this be his actual plan?

    If he took a good proportion of London, he'd make a massive dent into the Tory majority no?

    What if his plan is to do a reverse Johnson and take seats in the South? Has anyone done the numbers and seen if this could work?
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    Barnesian said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Warren up to 19% in new poll.

    Still 120/1 against her being the Democrat nominee.

    I'm assuming Sanders has got the nomination and I'm now modelling Trump v. Sanders by state using the RCP average state poll of Trump v. Sanders.

    Bernie could lose:
    Colorado (40% chance) 9 votes
    Nevada (50%) 6
    Virginia (30%) 13

    and gain:
    Michigan (90%) 16
    N Carolina (10%) 15
    Pennsylvania (60%) 20

    Overall Trump v. Sanders: 273 v 263

    But possible range is huge from 336 v 200 to 206 v 330 (if Bernie wins Florida which is just possible).
    I think that is reasonable with the exception of N Carolina. I don't think Bernie does much different from HRC in terms of the African-American turnout and I think he would go backwards in terms of wealthier, suburban types (see below). However, there is an argument for saying the two areas where he could make a difference are (a) younger voters and (b) blue-collar (plus any Sanders supporters who sat on their hands in 2016).

    However, I think where Bernie could lose 2016 Dem votes is amongst wealthier, moderately liberal types who like to them of themselves as progressive but who care about their wealth plus centrists / Republican voters who don't / didn't like Trump but would fear a Bernie election. On that basis, I can see more like a 50%+ chance Bernie loses Virginia, Colorado and Minnesota (32 votes).

    Effectively, there is not much change.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    edited February 2020

    ydoethur said:

    matt said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Just come back from seeing Lisa Nandy speak.

    My review: she’s getting my vote. She gets it.

    It is a pity that our membership in the south don't see the need to have a leader who gets it.
    Tory Leavers may prefer Nandy but will vote for Boris anyway, Tory and LD and SNP Remainers might switch though to a Starmer led Labour
    Please explain how SNP voters find Starmer attractive. Genuinely inquisitive, as I have never seen any Scottish Unionist commentators making this claim.
    Starmer will not cut it with the Scots
    He would actually be the most popular Labour leader with Scots since Brown
    An English North London elite lawyer being popular in Scotland for labour. - not a chance
    Read the polls, he polls higher in Scotland than England and went to uni in Leeds not the South for undergrad.

    Sturgeon is also an elite lawyer anyway
    In what sense is she an “elite lawyer”?
    My reaction too. Unless being a solicitor makes you “elite” these days?
    According to Richard Burgon it brings in only a modest wage...
    I’m sure a lot of solicitors are hard up.

    Artificial Intelligence is going to decimate most legal jobs, so I cannot see a bright future for that group.
    You are Richard Susskind and I claim my publishing contract (saying the same thing) 1998 - 2020.

    Please explain how AI will “decimate most legal jobs”.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,825
    edited February 2020

    Okay question.

    Starmer has been accused by some of being too Londony, too Southern based but could this be his actual plan?

    If he took a good proportion of London, he'd make a massive dent into the Tory majority no?

    What if his plan is to do a reverse Johnson and take seats in the South? Has anyone done the numbers and seen if this could work?

    11 Tory seats in London with a majority of less than 10,000. Some dent. :D
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    edited February 2020
    RobD said:

    Okay question.

    Starmer has been accused by some of being too Londony, too Southern based but could this be his actual plan?

    If he took a good proportion of London, he'd make a massive dent into the Tory majority no?

    What if his plan is to do a reverse Johnson and take seats in the South? Has anyone done the numbers and seen if this could work?

    11 Tory seats in London with a majority of less than 10,000. Some dent. :D
    I have no idea, I just wonder his logic of backing FOM so happily.

    I wonder if he's planning an alliance with the Lib Dems? To force a minority Government he needs a swing of something like 5.5%, with LDs making gains it would be less.

    I'm just trying to get his strategy.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,825

    RobD said:

    Okay question.

    Starmer has been accused by some of being too Londony, too Southern based but could this be his actual plan?

    If he took a good proportion of London, he'd make a massive dent into the Tory majority no?

    What if his plan is to do a reverse Johnson and take seats in the South? Has anyone done the numbers and seen if this could work?

    11 Tory seats in London with a majority of less than 10,000. Some dent. :D
    I have no idea, I just wonder his logic of backing FOM so happily.

    I wonder if he's planning an alliance with the Lib Dems? To force a minority Government he needs a swing of something like 5.5%, with LDs making gains it would be less.

    I'm just trying to get his strategy.
    Table here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Parliamentary_constituencies_in_London
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,170
    edited February 2020
    edit
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Pulpstar said:

    Warren up to 19% in new poll.

    Post debate surge hidden by Nevada early voting.

    Go Liz
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789

    RobD said:

    Okay question.

    Starmer has been accused by some of being too Londony, too Southern based but could this be his actual plan?

    If he took a good proportion of London, he'd make a massive dent into the Tory majority no?

    What if his plan is to do a reverse Johnson and take seats in the South? Has anyone done the numbers and seen if this could work?

    11 Tory seats in London with a majority of less than 10,000. Some dent. :D
    I have no idea, I just wonder his logic of backing FOM so happily.

    I wonder if he's planning an alliance with the Lib Dems? To force a minority Government he needs a swing of something like 5.5%, with LDs making gains it would be less.

    I'm just trying to get his strategy.
    Perhaps the best way to think of it is that he has tactics, not strategy?
  • RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Okay question.

    Starmer has been accused by some of being too Londony, too Southern based but could this be his actual plan?

    If he took a good proportion of London, he'd make a massive dent into the Tory majority no?

    What if his plan is to do a reverse Johnson and take seats in the South? Has anyone done the numbers and seen if this could work?

    11 Tory seats in London with a majority of less than 10,000. Some dent. :D
    I have no idea, I just wonder his logic of backing FOM so happily.

    I wonder if he's planning an alliance with the Lib Dems? To force a minority Government he needs a swing of something like 5.5%, with LDs making gains it would be less.

    I'm just trying to get his strategy.
    Table here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Parliamentary_constituencies_in_London
    Doesn't answer what his strategy is.

    I don't see why you'd double down on something like FOM if you didn't have some kind of plan to pickup Remain seats.
  • matt said:

    RobD said:

    Okay question.

    Starmer has been accused by some of being too Londony, too Southern based but could this be his actual plan?

    If he took a good proportion of London, he'd make a massive dent into the Tory majority no?

    What if his plan is to do a reverse Johnson and take seats in the South? Has anyone done the numbers and seen if this could work?

    11 Tory seats in London with a majority of less than 10,000. Some dent. :D
    I have no idea, I just wonder his logic of backing FOM so happily.

    I wonder if he's planning an alliance with the Lib Dems? To force a minority Government he needs a swing of something like 5.5%, with LDs making gains it would be less.

    I'm just trying to get his strategy.
    Perhaps the best way to think of it is that he has tactics, not strategy?
    Well I am not sure what his tactics are then.

    If you accept the social conservative base is lost and instead you go all in on the liberal base, I wonder if that is his big plan.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,825
    edited February 2020
    deleted.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,825

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Okay question.

    Starmer has been accused by some of being too Londony, too Southern based but could this be his actual plan?

    If he took a good proportion of London, he'd make a massive dent into the Tory majority no?

    What if his plan is to do a reverse Johnson and take seats in the South? Has anyone done the numbers and seen if this could work?

    11 Tory seats in London with a majority of less than 10,000. Some dent. :D
    I have no idea, I just wonder his logic of backing FOM so happily.

    I wonder if he's planning an alliance with the Lib Dems? To force a minority Government he needs a swing of something like 5.5%, with LDs making gains it would be less.

    I'm just trying to get his strategy.
    Table here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Parliamentary_constituencies_in_London
    Doesn't answer what his strategy is.

    I don't see why you'd double down on something like FOM if you didn't have some kind of plan to pickup Remain seats.
    It was in reply to your statement that you had no idea. I assumed you had no idea of the number of seats, so was giving you a link to a table.
  • IanB2 said:

    Must be almost time for Eadric’s nightly sober assessment of the latest news on the killer virus?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Misinformation_related_to_the_2019–20_coronavirus_outbreak
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,457
    edited February 2020

    matt said:

    RobD said:

    Okay question.

    Starmer has been accused by some of being too Londony, too Southern based but could this be his actual plan?

    If he took a good proportion of London, he'd make a massive dent into the Tory majority no?

    What if his plan is to do a reverse Johnson and take seats in the South? Has anyone done the numbers and seen if this could work?

    11 Tory seats in London with a majority of less than 10,000. Some dent. :D
    I have no idea, I just wonder his logic of backing FOM so happily.

    I wonder if he's planning an alliance with the Lib Dems? To force a minority Government he needs a swing of something like 5.5%, with LDs making gains it would be less.

    I'm just trying to get his strategy.
    Perhaps the best way to think of it is that he has tactics, not strategy?
    Well I am not sure what his tactics are then.

    If you accept the social conservative base is lost and instead you go all in on the liberal base, I wonder if that is his big plan.
    At the moment, win the leadership election. I doubt any of them are seriously thinking about how they will fight a GE in 5 years time.
  • eadric said:

    Okay question.

    Starmer has been accused by some of being too Londony, too Southern based but could this be his actual plan?

    If he took a good proportion of London, he'd make a massive dent into the Tory majority no?

    What if his plan is to do a reverse Johnson and take seats in the South? Has anyone done the numbers and seen if this could work?

    You don't have to crunch the numbers. He's a quite hard left, sincerely socialist identity politics Labourite, minus the Corbyn charm (which was real, once), but minus the deadly IRA/Islamism stuff.

    Starmer will definitely do better, but I fear (for Labour) he will mainly do better in places where they already do well (eg he will win back some Labour Remainers in university seats).

    I do not see his appeal in the North, Scotland or the Midlands.

    BUT I can see him looking like a safe pair of hands (which Corbyn didn't), if Brexit goes calamitously tits up, for instance. And that is far from impossible

    That is is his USP. Starmer is quite dull and left wing but he looks sane and safe. It might be enough in the right circs.
    Good post.

    I can see him making decisive progress in 2024, he is pretty much the only candidate I can see as selling some of Corbyn's policies but looking so dull people will think they aren't dangerous.

    I can definitely see some kind of reverse post-1992 polling wise if there's a Brexit calamity and/or a recession.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    edited February 2020

    matt said:

    RobD said:

    Okay question.

    Starmer has been accused by some of being too Londony, too Southern based but could this be his actual plan?

    If he took a good proportion of London, he'd make a massive dent into the Tory majority no?

    What if his plan is to do a reverse Johnson and take seats in the South? Has anyone done the numbers and seen if this could work?

    11 Tory seats in London with a majority of less than 10,000. Some dent. :D
    I have no idea, I just wonder his logic of backing FOM so happily.

    I wonder if he's planning an alliance with the Lib Dems? To force a minority Government he needs a swing of something like 5.5%, with LDs making gains it would be less.

    I'm just trying to get his strategy.
    Perhaps the best way to think of it is that he has tactics, not strategy?
    Well I am not sure what his tactics are then.

    If you accept the social conservative base is lost and instead you go all in on the liberal base, I wonder if that is his big plan.
    The tactics are about winning today. Worry about the promises to win today, tomorrow?

    A view of the Labour Party electorate and what they think important.
  • RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Okay question.

    Starmer has been accused by some of being too Londony, too Southern based but could this be his actual plan?

    If he took a good proportion of London, he'd make a massive dent into the Tory majority no?

    What if his plan is to do a reverse Johnson and take seats in the South? Has anyone done the numbers and seen if this could work?

    11 Tory seats in London with a majority of less than 10,000. Some dent. :D
    I have no idea, I just wonder his logic of backing FOM so happily.

    I wonder if he's planning an alliance with the Lib Dems? To force a minority Government he needs a swing of something like 5.5%, with LDs making gains it would be less.

    I'm just trying to get his strategy.
    Table here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Parliamentary_constituencies_in_London
    Doesn't answer what his strategy is.

    I don't see why you'd double down on something like FOM if you didn't have some kind of plan to pickup Remain seats.
    It was in reply to your statement that you had no idea. I assumed you had no idea of the number of seats, so was giving you a link to a table.
    I was asking about his strategy to go all liberal. He must think it's a winning strategy, I was trying to figure out why.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    IanB2 said:

    Must be almost time for Eadric’s nightly sober assessment of the latest news on the killer virus?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Misinformation_related_to_the_2019–20_coronavirus_outbreak
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Passive-aggressive_behavior
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,825

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Okay question.

    Starmer has been accused by some of being too Londony, too Southern based but could this be his actual plan?

    If he took a good proportion of London, he'd make a massive dent into the Tory majority no?

    What if his plan is to do a reverse Johnson and take seats in the South? Has anyone done the numbers and seen if this could work?

    11 Tory seats in London with a majority of less than 10,000. Some dent. :D
    I have no idea, I just wonder his logic of backing FOM so happily.

    I wonder if he's planning an alliance with the Lib Dems? To force a minority Government he needs a swing of something like 5.5%, with LDs making gains it would be less.

    I'm just trying to get his strategy.
    Table here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Parliamentary_constituencies_in_London
    Doesn't answer what his strategy is.

    I don't see why you'd double down on something like FOM if you didn't have some kind of plan to pickup Remain seats.
    It was in reply to your statement that you had no idea. I assumed you had no idea of the number of seats, so was giving you a link to a table.
    I was asking about his strategy to go all liberal. He must think it's a winning strategy, I was trying to figure out why.
    Just because he thinks it is doesn't mean it is. ;)
  • From the Guardian

    At tonights hustings in Durham, Starmer said that he would appoint Nandy and RLB to his shadow cabinet and they both agreed they would appoint their leadership opponents as well if they won

    Furthermore, all three stressed their determination to accept the Brexit outcome and abandon all talk of rejoining

  • Good on Brexit, don't think RLB should be anywhere near the SC.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,457
    edited February 2020
    eadric said:



    Because they just will (just as they will destroy most jobs in basic journalism)

    A legal document does not require imagination, human insight, emotional drama, empathy with other humans. Most legal documents, from mortgages to wills, require access to the cold hard facts, and that's it. And that is what a lot of lawyers do - they produce legal documents - like notaries, for instance.

    All this can be automated tomorrow, and will save lawyers and customers millions.


    A robot will not replace a QC in an Old Bailey murder trial. Not for a long time.

    I don't think it will. I think what will happen is like medicine, that AI / ML will automate away a lot of the most basic tasks and enable them to work more efficiently. I don't think there is ever a shortage of new legal cases / ill people, so it will just enable them to get through the work load faster.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    eadric said:

    matt said:

    ydoethur said:

    matt said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Just come back from seeing Lisa Nandy speak.

    My review: she’s getting my vote. She gets it.

    It is a pity that our membership in the south don't see the need to have a leader who gets it.
    Tory Leavers may prefer Nandy but will vote for Boris anyway, Tory and LD and SNP Remainers might switch though to a Starmer led Labour
    Please explain how SNP voters find Starmer attractive. Genuinely inquisitive, as I have never seen any Scottish Unionist commentators making this claim.
    Starmer will not cut it with the Scots
    He would actually be the most popular Labour leader with Scots since Brown
    An English North London elite lawyer being popular in Scotland for labour. - not a chance
    Read the polls, he polls higher in Scotland than England and went to uni in Leeds not the South for undergrad.

    Sturgeon is also an elite lawyer anyway
    In what sense is she an “elite lawyer”?
    My reaction too. Unless being a solicitor makes you “elite” these days?
    According to Richard Burgon it brings in only a modest wage...
    I’m sure a lot of solicitors are hard up.

    Artificial Intelligence is going to decimate most legal jobs, so I cannot see a bright future for that group.
    You are Richard Susskind and I claim my publishing contract (saying the same thing) 1998 - 2020.

    Please explain how AI will “decimate most legal jobs”.
    Because they just will (just as they will destroy most jobs in basic journalism)

    A legal document does not require imagination, human insight, emotional drama, empathy with other humans. Most legal documents, from mortgages to wills, require access to the cold hard facts, and that's it. And that is what a lot of lawyers do - they produce legal documents - like notaries, for instance.

    All this can be automated tomorrow, and will save lawyers and customers millions.


    A robot will not replace a QC in an Old Bailey murder trial. Not for a long time.
    Good to know. Look forward to advising you on how to draft novels
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172



    Well I am not sure what his tactics are then.

    If you accept the social conservative base is lost and instead you go all in on the liberal base, I wonder if that is his big plan.

    If so, I think it is a stupid one. There is no point having two parties fighting over the same chunk of the electorate.

    I think the LibDems will not recover their ability to take many Tory seats for some time.

    They are at really historic lows in some parts of country (e.g. mid Wales, the South West).

    Clegg, followed by Farron, followed by Cable, followed by Swinson is a near-death experience for a political party.

    I expect they'll now chose Moran to complete the job.


  • Well I am not sure what his tactics are then.

    If you accept the social conservative base is lost and instead you go all in on the liberal base, I wonder if that is his big plan.

    If so, I think it is a stupid one. There is no point having two parties fighting over the same chunk of the electorate.

    I think the LibDems will not recover their ability to take many Tory seats for some time.

    They are at really historic lows in some parts of country (e.g. mid Wales, the South West).

    Clegg, followed by Farron, followed by Cable, followed by Swinson is a near-death experience for a political party.

    I expect they'll now chose Moran to complete the job.
    There's a solid 7% of the vote there that Starmer can presumably take.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,551
    MrEd said:

    Barnesian said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Warren up to 19% in new poll.

    Still 120/1 against her being the Democrat nominee.

    I'm assuming Sanders has got the nomination and I'm now modelling Trump v. Sanders by state using the RCP average state poll of Trump v. Sanders.

    Bernie could lose:
    Colorado (40% chance) 9 votes
    Nevada (50%) 6
    Virginia (30%) 13

    and gain:
    Michigan (90%) 16
    N Carolina (10%) 15
    Pennsylvania (60%) 20

    Overall Trump v. Sanders: 273 v 263

    But possible range is huge from 336 v 200 to 206 v 330 (if Bernie wins Florida which is just possible).
    I think that is reasonable with the exception of N Carolina. I don't think Bernie does much different from HRC in terms of the African-American turnout and I think he would go backwards in terms of wealthier, suburban types (see below). However, there is an argument for saying the two areas where he could make a difference are (a) younger voters and (b) blue-collar (plus any Sanders supporters who sat on their hands in 2016).

    However, I think where Bernie could lose 2016 Dem votes is amongst wealthier, moderately liberal types who like to them of themselves as progressive but who care about their wealth plus centrists / Republican voters who don't / didn't like Trump but would fear a Bernie election. On that basis, I can see more like a 50%+ chance Bernie loses Virginia, Colorado and Minnesota (32 votes).

    Effectively, there is not much change.
    Sanders was 9% ahead of Trump in the only poll taken in Minnesota. Admittedly that was four months ago.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789

    From the Guardian

    At tonights hustings in Durham, Starmer said that he would appoint Nandy and RLB to his shadow cabinet and they both agreed they would appoint their leadership opponents as well if they won

    Furthermore, all three stressed their determination to accept the Brexit outcome and abandon all talk of rejoining

    Both points are absurd. There are nothing to suggest that Long-Bailey has anything worth hearing and rejoining as a medium term policy is perfectly appropriate and quite saleable. All the Labour candidates could, if this an accurate description, try honesty.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,457
    edited February 2020
    This is the problem Labour have...

    https://twitter.com/p_surridge/status/1230635802599809026?s=20

    While they are getting their knickers in a twist over things like which bit of the trans-right pressure group pledge card they agree with, the wider public (including many Labour voters) are not as where near as woke / liberal.
  • matt said:

    From the Guardian

    At tonights hustings in Durham, Starmer said that he would appoint Nandy and RLB to his shadow cabinet and they both agreed they would appoint their leadership opponents as well if they won

    Furthermore, all three stressed their determination to accept the Brexit outcome and abandon all talk of rejoining

    Both points are absurd. There are nothing to suggest that Long-Bailey has anything worth hearing and rejoining as a medium term policy is perfectly appropriate and quite saleable. All the Labour candidates could, if this an accurate description, try honesty.
    It is the Guardian reporting this
  • eadric said:

    eadric said:

    Okay question.

    Starmer has been accused by some of being too Londony, too Southern based but could this be his actual plan?

    If he took a good proportion of London, he'd make a massive dent into the Tory majority no?

    What if his plan is to do a reverse Johnson and take seats in the South? Has anyone done the numbers and seen if this could work?

    You don't have to crunch the numbers. He's a quite hard left, sincerely socialist identity politics Labourite, minus the Corbyn charm (which was real, once), but minus the deadly IRA/Islamism stuff.

    Starmer will definitely do better, but I fear (for Labour) he will mainly do better in places where they already do well (eg he will win back some Labour Remainers in university seats).

    I do not see his appeal in the North, Scotland or the Midlands.

    BUT I can see him looking like a safe pair of hands (which Corbyn didn't), if Brexit goes calamitously tits up, for instance. And that is far from impossible

    That is is his USP. Starmer is quite dull and left wing but he looks sane and safe. It might be enough in the right circs.
    Good post.

    I can see him making decisive progress in 2024, he is pretty much the only candidate I can see as selling some of Corbyn's policies but looking so dull people will think they aren't dangerous.

    I can definitely see some kind of reverse post-1992 polling wise if there's a Brexit calamity and/or a recession.
    Yeah, If I were Labour I'd be voting Starmer or Nandy. Neither look like they can overturn an 80 seat majority in one go, but who does? They need to be as Michael Howard was for the Tories, a smart stabiliser, who then led to David Cameron and victory. Both are clearly decent people who can slowly purge this awful stain of anti-Semitism.


    And, crucially, both look able to be PM, if the Tories really fuck up (which, in times of plague and Brexit, is totally plausible)

    I'd vote Nandy just cause I slightly fancy her. But I understand why many of my sane Labour friends are going Starmer.
    I am voting and will be putting Starmer 1 and Nandy 2
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    matt said:

    eadric said:

    matt said:

    ydoethur said:

    matt said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Just come back from seeing Lisa Nandy speak.

    My review: she’s getting my vote. She gets it.

    It is a pity that our membership in the south don't see the need to have a leader who gets it.
    Tory Leavers may prefer Nandy but will vote for Boris anyway, Tory and LD and SNP Remainers might switch though to a Starmer led Labour
    Please explain how SNP voters find Starmer attractive. Genuinely inquisitive, as I have never seen any Scottish Unionist commentators making this claim.
    Starmer will not cut it with the Scots
    He would actually be the most popular Labour leader with Scots since Brown
    An English North London elite lawyer being popular in Scotland for labour. - not a chance
    Read the polls, he polls higher in Scotland than England and went to uni in Leeds not the South for undergrad.

    Sturgeon is also an elite lawyer anyway
    In what sense is she an “elite lawyer”?
    My reaction too. Unless being a solicitor makes you “elite” these days?
    According to Richard Burgon it brings in only a modest wage...
    I’m sure a lot of solicitors are hard up.

    Artificial Intelligence is going to decimate most legal jobs, so I cannot see a bright future for that group.
    You are Richard Susskind and I claim my publishing contract (saying the same thing) 1998 - 2020.

    Please explain how AI will “decimate most legal jobs”.
    Because they just will (just as they will destroy most jobs in basic journalism)

    A legal document does not require imagination, human insight, emotional drama, empathy with other humans. Most legal documents, from mortgages to wills, require access to the cold hard facts, and that's it. And that is what a lot of lawyers do - they produce legal documents - like notaries, for instance.

    All this can be automated tomorrow, and will save lawyers and customers millions.


    A robot will not replace a QC in an Old Bailey murder trial. Not for a long time.
    Good to know. Look forward to advising you on how to draft novels
    AI will probably be able to have a good stab at a novel for people to read on the bus. Especially if it doesn’t matter that the characters all have the same verbal style.
  • This is the problem Labour have...

    https://twitter.com/p_surridge/status/1230635802599809026?s=20

    While they are getting their knickers in a twist over things like which bit of the trans-right pressure group pledge card they agree with, the wider public (including many Labour voters) are not as where near as woke / liberal.

    It's not even as if they can't support this stuff, it's simply a matter of priority.

    To his credit, Starmer seems to have mostly avoided getting involved. Then Nandy shot herself in the foot which was weird.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,825

    This is the problem Labour have...

    https://twitter.com/p_surridge/status/1230635802599809026?s=20

    While they are getting their knickers in a twist over things like which bit of the trans-right pressure group pledge card they agree with, the wider public (including many Labour voters) are not as where near as woke / liberal.

    Interesting how close the Tories are to the non-aligned, and how far Labour are.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,457
    edited February 2020
    IanB2 said:



    AI will probably be able to have a good stab at a novel for people to read on the bus. Especially if it doesn’t matter that the characters all have the same verbal style.

    GPT2 is the leading AI for creating text given some suggested topics. Although individually the sentences read ok, lets just say it is a million miles away from writing anything convincing, let alone entertaining, for more than a few sentences.
  • Starmer surely should be polling at 40% or above by 2022 to be showing any signs of progress, even Corbyn achieved that.

    That is assuming the Tory vote doesn't collapse through the floor - but it keeps going up in every election so
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789

    IanB2 said:



    AI will probably be able to have a good stab at a novel for people to read on the bus. Especially if it doesn’t matter that the characters all have the same verbal style.

    GPT2 is the leading AI for creating text given some suggested topics. Although individually the sentences read ok, lets just say it is a million miles away from writing anything convincing, let alone entertaining, for more than a few sentences.
    For your archetypal beach novel, the sort that comes within raised gold raised lettering on the cover, that’s enough?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480
    Cyclefree said:

    An excellent header, @Casino_Royale. Thank you.

    Personally I feel that Harry has turned into a whinging petulant child and it is doing him no favours. I’m all for him retiring to a private life but then he needs to stop trying to hang onto the benefits of royal life and commenting on what royal means. His latest outburst is ill-judged. A long period of silence from him would be wise.

    A period of calm and competent getting on with their jobs would be welcome in our institutions.

    There is perhaps a personal element to why Harry is bothered by removal of the HRH title.

    https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1231629166069665799?s=19
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,457
    edited February 2020

    This is the problem Labour have...

    https://twitter.com/p_surridge/status/1230635802599809026?s=20

    While they are getting their knickers in a twist over things like which bit of the trans-right pressure group pledge card they agree with, the wider public (including many Labour voters) are not as where near as woke / liberal.

    It's not even as if they can't support this stuff, it's simply a matter of priority.

    To his credit, Starmer seems to have mostly avoided getting involved. Then Nandy shot herself in the foot which was weird.
    But this is the problem both here and in the US with parts of the left, that any attempt to suggest there are much high priority issues can get you in a lot of trouble with the base. So the leadership spend a disproportionate amount of time talking about / tip toeing around in responses in attempts not to shoot themselves in the foot.

    While the wider public look in and go oh they are talking about that niche issue again, and I don't really understand or agree with.

    Flat Cap Fred certainly isn't interested in which pronouns a certain leader states in their twitter bio or that somebody once used the one wrongs and now everybody has spent the day shouting at one another about it.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789

    Starmer surely should be polling at 40% or above by 2022 to be showing any signs of progress, even Corbyn achieved that.

    That is assuming the Tory vote doesn't collapse through the floor - but it keeps going up in every election so

    There will (or at least should be) an election bounce, but there are elections in May. Those will be relevant for a judgement?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,825
    matt said:

    Starmer surely should be polling at 40% or above by 2022 to be showing any signs of progress, even Corbyn achieved that.

    That is assuming the Tory vote doesn't collapse through the floor - but it keeps going up in every election so

    There will (or at least should be) an election bounce, but there are elections in May. Those will be relevant for a judgement?
    Depends if they do well or not. :p
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    edited February 2020

    This is the problem Labour have...

    https://twitter.com/p_surridge/status/1230635802599809026?s=20

    While they are getting their knickers in a twist over things like which bit of the trans-right pressure group pledge card they agree with, the wider public (including many Labour voters) are not as where near as woke / liberal.

    It's not even as if they can't support this stuff, it's simply a matter of priority.

    To his credit, Starmer seems to have mostly avoided getting involved. Then Nandy shot herself in the foot which was weird.
    But this is the problem both here and in the US with parts of the left, that any attempt to suggest there are much high priority issues can get you in a lot of trouble with the base. So the leadership spend a disproportionate amount of time talking about / tip toeing around in responses in attempts not to shoot themselves in the foot.

    While the wider public look in and go oh they are talking about that niche issue again, and I don't really understand or agree with.

    Flat Cap Fred certainly isn't interested in which pronouns a certain leader states in their twitter bio or that somebody once used the one wrongs and now everybody has spent the day shouting at one another about it.
    I don’t agree with* the interest in sexual habits as as defining feature of society but equally enthusiasts might argue that a minority can make change if they are loud enough and capture a mood. Although I’m unconvinced that Farage is seen by such people as an example to follow.

    *FAOD I don’t give a shit about what you stick your dick into or what your receive.
  • matt said:

    Starmer surely should be polling at 40% or above by 2022 to be showing any signs of progress, even Corbyn achieved that.

    That is assuming the Tory vote doesn't collapse through the floor - but it keeps going up in every election so

    There will (or at least should be) an election bounce, but there are elections in May. Those will be relevant for a judgement?
    Should be yes, Labour will want to make progress in those.

    Really 2022 is when it should be clear how the next election is going.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Foxy said:

    Cyclefree said:

    An excellent header, @Casino_Royale. Thank you.

    Personally I feel that Harry has turned into a whinging petulant child and it is doing him no favours. I’m all for him retiring to a private life but then he needs to stop trying to hang onto the benefits of royal life and commenting on what royal means. His latest outburst is ill-judged. A long period of silence from him would be wise.

    A period of calm and competent getting on with their jobs would be welcome in our institutions.

    There is perhaps a personal element to why Harry is bothered by removal of the HRH title.

    https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1231629166069665799?s=19
    I had not realised that losing the hrh meant that diana had to curtsey to other royals inc her own children. What a monumental shit Charles is.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    RobD said:

    matt said:

    Starmer surely should be polling at 40% or above by 2022 to be showing any signs of progress, even Corbyn achieved that.

    That is assuming the Tory vote doesn't collapse through the floor - but it keeps going up in every election so

    There will (or at least should be) an election bounce, but there are elections in May. Those will be relevant for a judgement?
    Depends if they do well or not. :p
    May elections are already either won or lost depending on the effort of the different parties. It is why lib dems do well locally in many places because they target and work to a goal. The national picture has more impact on activists than voters, my own experience is that in many places most labour and Tory voters are not interested in their local council leaving the field open for those that do. It does piss of tories who believe they have the right to be elected wherever they stand but it makes local government more interesting.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,825

    matt said:

    Starmer surely should be polling at 40% or above by 2022 to be showing any signs of progress, even Corbyn achieved that.

    That is assuming the Tory vote doesn't collapse through the floor - but it keeps going up in every election so

    There will (or at least should be) an election bounce, but there are elections in May. Those will be relevant for a judgement?
    Should be yes, Labour will want to make progress in those.

    Really 2022 is when it should be clear how the next election is going.
    Far too early. Maybe a month before in 2024.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,586

    This is the problem Labour have...

    https://twitter.com/p_surridge/status/1230635802599809026?s=20

    While they are getting their knickers in a twist over things like which bit of the trans-right pressure group pledge card they agree with, the wider public (including many Labour voters) are not as where near as woke / liberal.

    Is there any science behind the y axis scale on this chart?
This discussion has been closed.