politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » First results from Iowa have Buttgieg in the lead

System · February 2020

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » First results from Iowa have Buttgieg in the lead

This appears to be based on the proportion of delegates that were elected. These are provisional and there are others results still to come

Read the full story here

TheScreamingEagles · February 2020

First like Mayor Pete.

Told you all to lay the old dudes in this race.

I am Nostradamus reincarnated.

HYUFD · February 2020

Buttigieg narrowly ahead of Sanders on state delegates so far, note not the same as the percentage of the vote https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1224816239803092992?s=20

AramintaMoonbeamQC · February 2020

CNN have the map - Pete's support very broad, right across the state. He's played an absolute blinder here.

TheScreamingEagles · February 2020

Not that I'm getting ahead of myself but I'm trying to work out the odds of Liverpool achieving the following this season

1) Completing the PL, CL, and FA Cup, treble
2) Getting over 100 points
3) Going unbeaten in the PL

If all three happen then I will be positively unbearable*.

*More so than usual.

Benpointer · February 2020

TheScreamingEagles said:
First like Mayor Pete.

Told you all to lay the old dudes in this race.

I am Nostradamus reincarnated.

Doesn't that make you a very old dude?

HYUFD · February 2020

https://twitter.com/SeanTrende/status/1224817488833196032?s=20

HYUFD · February 2020

https://twitter.com/CillizzaCNN/status/1224816296195502081?s=20

speedy2 · February 2020

We don't know who won.
Because we don't know where that 38% remaining is from.

TheWhiteRabbit · February 2020

HYUFD said:
https://twitter.com/CillizzaCNN/status/1224816296195502081?s=20

Looks like the first alignment figures to me

rcs1000 · February 2020

HYUFD said:
Buttigieg narrowly ahead of Sanders on state delegates, note not the same as the percentage of the vote https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1224816239803092992?s=20

Worth remembering that this means that Sanders needs to be six percentage points ahead in the remaining 39% to win.

That's possible. But difficult.

Endillion · February 2020

Klobuchar seems to have done pretty well, also. Her and Pete seems like a good ticket, although it would make more sense with her leading it.

speedy2 · February 2020

TheWhiteRabbit said:

HYUFD said:
https://twitter.com/CillizzaCNN/status/1224816296195502081?s=20
Looks like the first alignment figures to me

Second alignment.

https://edition.cnn.com/election/2020/state/iowa

Stereotomy · February 2020

TheWhiteRabbit said:

HYUFD said:
https://twitter.com/CillizzaCNN/status/1224816296195502081?s=20
Looks like the first alignment figures to me

WaPo seems to think it's final alignment.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/election-results/iowa/

Richard_Nabavi · February 2020

TheWhiteRabbit said:

HYUFD said:
https://twitter.com/CillizzaCNN/status/1224816296195502081?s=20
Looks like the first alignment figures to me

Good point [Edit: But wrong!]

Big picture: not great for Sleepy Joe, is it?

rottenborough · February 2020

Richard_Nabavi said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

HYUFD said:
https://twitter.com/CillizzaCNN/status/1224816296195502081?s=20
Looks like the first alignment figures to me
Good point.

Big picture: not great for Sleepy Joe, is it?

If that's 1st, then it has to be Pete doesn't it?

TheWhiteRabbit · February 2020

Richard_Nabavi said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

HYUFD said:
https://twitter.com/CillizzaCNN/status/1224816296195502081?s=20
Looks like the first alignment figures to me
Good point [Edit: But wrong!]

Big picture: not great for Sleepy Joe, is it?

Yes, thanks everyone.

Warren doing a little better than expected, then compared to last night.

DavidL · February 2020

This surely puts Biden in the last chance saloon, and possibly out the door altogether. If he isn’t a winner what’s the point? He has absolutely nothing else to offer.

Foxy · February 2020

rottenborough said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

HYUFD said:
https://twitter.com/CillizzaCNN/status/1224816296195502081?s=20
Looks like the first alignment figures to me
Good point.

Big picture: not great for Sleepy Joe, is it?
If that's 1st, then it has to be Pete doesn't it?

Yep. Biden will be out by Super Tuesday. Bernie afterwards, I reckon.

TheWhiteRabbit · February 2020

Made almost as much money in the ten seconds between CNN updating their website API and their coverage as the whole of last night and beforehand...

FrancisUrquhart · February 2020

MSNBC banging on about all the connections between Mayor Pete campaign and the app developer. Awks.

TheWhiteRabbit · February 2020

Foxy said:

rottenborough said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

HYUFD said:
https://twitter.com/CillizzaCNN/status/1224816296195502081?s=20
Looks like the first alignment figures to me
Good point.

Big picture: not great for Sleepy Joe, is it?
If that's 1st, then it has to be Pete doesn't it?
Yep. Biden will be out by Super Tuesday. Bernie afterwards, I reckon.

South Carolina is his target, because it tests his support with African-Americans

Stereotomy · February 2020

Foxy said:

rottenborough said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

HYUFD said:
https://twitter.com/CillizzaCNN/status/1224816296195502081?s=20
Looks like the first alignment figures to me
Good point.

Big picture: not great for Sleepy Joe, is it?
If that's 1st, then it has to be Pete doesn't it?
Yep. Biden will be out by Super Tuesday. Bernie afterwards, I reckon.

Uhhh

rottenborough · February 2020

https://twitter.com/LarrySabato/status/1224819318333927424

TheWhiteRabbit · February 2020

FrancisUrquhart said:
MSNBC banging on about all the connections between Mayor Pete campaign and the app developer. Awks.

Surely he'd have wanted this headline yesterday!!

MarqueeMark · February 2020

So have the Dems retrieved the mess of last night - or compounded it?

Pulpstar · February 2020

Foxy said:

rottenborough said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

HYUFD said:
https://twitter.com/CillizzaCNN/status/1224816296195502081?s=20
Looks like the first alignment figures to me
Good point.

Big picture: not great for Sleepy Joe, is it?
If that's 1st, then it has to be Pete doesn't it?
Yep. Biden will be out by Super Tuesday. Bernie afterwards, I reckon.

Writing Bernie Sanders off after this result is a hilariously bad take.

rottenborough · February 2020

Trump's troops making their move?

https://twitter.com/davestwittylife/status/1224819556612374528

Foxy · February 2020

FrancisUrquhart said:
MSNBC banging on about all the connections between Mayor Pete campaign and the app developer. Awks.

Knowing how to fix elections?

Dems need that man...

Kevin_McCandless · February 2020

Foxy said:

rottenborough said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

HYUFD said:
https://twitter.com/CillizzaCNN/status/1224816296195502081?s=20
Looks like the first alignment figures to me
Good point.

Big picture: not great for Sleepy Joe, is it?
If that's 1st, then it has to be Pete doesn't it?
Yep. Biden will be out by Super Tuesday. Bernie afterwards, I reckon.

Sanders will win New Hampshire. Has a good shot at Nevada on the 22nd. If he doesn't do badly in South Carolina on the 29th, that sets him up well for the big day on 3 March.

Stereotomy · February 2020

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:
Buttigieg narrowly ahead of Sanders on state delegates, note not the same as the percentage of the vote https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1224816239803092992?s=20
Worth remembering that this means that Sanders needs to be six percentage points ahead in the remaining 39% to win.

That's possible. But difficult.

I make it less than that. There are 760 SDEs left up for grabs, Sanders trails by 25. That's 3.3%.

HYUFD · February 2020

https://twitter.com/SeanTrende/status/1224820739750158336?s=20

Alistair · February 2020

Backed Pete earlier today in Iowa. Now laid it off for a profit.

Pete was being way, way, way, waaaay too confident for someone who didn't have a chance and 3.1 was a great price.

rottenborough · February 2020

And when do when get the other 30%?

Stereotomy · February 2020

Foxy said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
MSNBC banging on about all the connections between Mayor Pete campaign and the app developer. Awks.
Knowing how to fix elections?

Dems need that man...

Apparently not. He obviously should have spent more time chatting to his friend from the Office of Transition Initiatives.

speedy2 · February 2020

rottenborough said:
https://twitter.com/LarrySabato/status/1224819318333927424

I'm so annoyed about everyone calling it for Buttigieg on State Delegates on a lead of less than 2% on State Delegates when we don't know what that 38% of votes left is from.

I'm not calling the race and no one should until we know where that vote is from.

Foxy · February 2020

Pulpstar said:

Foxy said:

rottenborough said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

HYUFD said:
https://twitter.com/CillizzaCNN/status/1224816296195502081?s=20
Looks like the first alignment figures to me
Good point.

Big picture: not great for Sleepy Joe, is it?
If that's 1st, then it has to be Pete doesn't it?
Yep. Biden will be out by Super Tuesday. Bernie afterwards, I reckon.
Writing Bernie Sanders off after this result is a hilariously bad take.

Stake your money as you choose.

Sanders will probably get New Hampshire, but not enough on super Tuesday.

Alistair · February 2020

Makes up for the fact I laid Pete for the Nom down to zero a little while ago.

tyson · February 2020

HYUFD said:
https://twitter.com/SeanTrende/status/1224820739750158336?s=20

seanT has reinvented himself again......

Alistair · February 2020

My Girl The Big Liz still in this thing.

HYUFD · February 2020

Foxy said:

rottenborough said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

HYUFD said:
https://twitter.com/CillizzaCNN/status/1224816296195502081?s=20
Looks like the first alignment figures to me
Good point.

Big picture: not great for Sleepy Joe, is it?
If that's 1st, then it has to be Pete doesn't it?
Yep. Biden will be out by Super Tuesday. Bernie afterwards, I reckon.

Hardly, Sanders has just won the popular vote in Iowa and is ahead in New Hampshire and was closing in on Biden in SC with Buttigieg under 10%

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1224731934510714881?s=20
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1223957648107851777?s=20

Richard_Nabavi · February 2020

Amy Klobuchar hasn't done too badly on these results: 12.6% of delegates is pretty respectable when the three leaders are on 18% to 27%. Enough to stay in the race? Maybe, if Joe decides this isn't going anywhere for him.

Stereotomy · February 2020

speedy2 said:

rottenborough said:
https://twitter.com/LarrySabato/status/1224819318333927424
I'm so annoyed about everyone calling it for Buttigieg on State Delegates on a lead of less than 2% on State Delegates when we don't know what that 38% of votes left is from.

I'm not calling the race and no one should until we know where that vote is from.

This partial result is going to dominate the news cycle and potentially influence subsequent primaries, too.

rottenborough · February 2020

speedy2 said:

rottenborough said:
https://twitter.com/LarrySabato/status/1224819318333927424
I'm so annoyed about everyone calling it for Buttigieg on State Delegates on a lead of less than 2% on State Delegates when we don't know what that 38% of votes left is from.

I'm not calling the race and no one should until we know where that vote is from.

NPR has SDEs. That is the state delegates isn't it? It's all a bit confusing after a couple of glasses of wine.

Alistair · February 2020

speedy2 said:

rottenborough said:
https://twitter.com/LarrySabato/status/1224819318333927424
I'm so annoyed about everyone calling it for Buttigieg on State Delegates on a lead of less than 2% on State Delegates when we don't know what that 38% of votes left is from.

I'm not calling the race and no one should until we know where that vote is from.

And that's why I locked in the profit on Mayor Pete.

Foxy · February 2020

speedy2 said:

rottenborough said:
https://twitter.com/LarrySabato/status/1224819318333927424
I'm so annoyed about everyone calling it for Buttigieg on State Delegates on a lead of less than 2% on State Delegates when we don't know what that 38% of votes left is from.

I'm not calling the race and no one should until we know where that vote is from.

I have greened out. Sanders was far too short earlier today.

I am not at all convinced by these state polls.

speedy2 · February 2020

Alistair said:
Makes up for the fact I laid Pete for the Nom down to zero a little while ago.

Well he won't be the nominee even if he wins Iowa because minorities hate him.
It's all about who else won't be the nominee.

TheScreamingEagles · February 2020

So I best get learning how to properly pronounce Buttigieg.

tyson · February 2020

Foxy said:

Pulpstar said:

Foxy said:

rottenborough said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

HYUFD said:
https://twitter.com/CillizzaCNN/status/1224816296195502081?s=20
Looks like the first alignment figures to me
Good point.

Big picture: not great for Sleepy Joe, is it?
If that's 1st, then it has to be Pete doesn't it?
Yep. Biden will be out by Super Tuesday. Bernie afterwards, I reckon.
Writing Bernie Sanders off after this result is a hilariously bad take.
Stake your money as you choose.

Sanders will probably get New Hampshire, but not enough on super Tuesday.

Strangely, this may well work out for the Bern......better for him to build up momentum rather than rush ahead with a huge target on his back.,....

Kevin_McCandless · February 2020

Klobuchar running for Veep nomination at this point. And is strongly ahead.

Alistair · February 2020

DavidL said:
This surely puts Biden in the last chance saloon, and possibly out the door altogether. If he isn’t a winner what’s the point? He has absolutely nothing else to offer.

He drops of very precipitously very fast. I've seen some focus group results that suggest he is strong with African Americans because they believe in his electabilty more than anything else and his strength with African Americans adds to his aura of electibilty to other groups.

One crack and that all goes. He could be ceasing campaigning within days.

rottenborough · February 2020

Alistair said:

speedy2 said:

rottenborough said:
https://twitter.com/LarrySabato/status/1224819318333927424
I'm so annoyed about everyone calling it for Buttigieg on State Delegates on a lead of less than 2% on State Delegates when we don't know what that 38% of votes left is from.

I'm not calling the race and no one should until we know where that vote is from.
And that's why I locked in the profit on Mayor Pete.

Likewise.

Not a bad evening's work. Friday curry paid for.

TheWhiteRabbit · February 2020

tyson said:

Foxy said:

Pulpstar said:

Foxy said:

rottenborough said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

HYUFD said:
https://twitter.com/CillizzaCNN/status/1224816296195502081?s=20
Looks like the first alignment figures to me
Good point.

Big picture: not great for Sleepy Joe, is it?
If that's 1st, then it has to be Pete doesn't it?
Yep. Biden will be out by Super Tuesday. Bernie afterwards, I reckon.
Writing Bernie Sanders off after this result is a hilariously bad take.
Stake your money as you choose.

Sanders will probably get New Hampshire, but not enough on super Tuesday.
Strangely, this may well work out for the Bern......better for him to build up momentum rather than rush ahead with a huge target on his back.,....

He won't mind the race becoming Bernie v Pete too much. Warren did a little too well in Iowa though for his liking

Pulpstar · February 2020

Kevin_McCandless said:
Klobuchar running for Veep nomination at this point. And is strongly ahead.

Sanders-Klobuchar would be a very strong ticket, has both wings of the party.

Foxy · February 2020

tyson said:

Foxy said:

Pulpstar said:

Foxy said:

rottenborough said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

HYUFD said:
https://twitter.com/CillizzaCNN/status/1224816296195502081?s=20
Looks like the first alignment figures to me
Good point.

Big picture: not great for Sleepy Joe, is it?
If that's 1st, then it has to be Pete doesn't it?
Yep. Biden will be out by Super Tuesday. Bernie afterwards, I reckon.
Writing Bernie Sanders off after this result is a hilariously bad take.
Stake your money as you choose.

Sanders will probably get New Hampshire, but not enough on super Tuesday.
Strangely, this may well work out for the Bern......better for him to build up momentum rather than rush ahead with a huge target on his back.,....

Nah, the overwhelming thing for Dems is to have a candidate who can beat Trump. That isn't going to be Bernie or Joe.

speedy2 · February 2020

Stereotomy said:

speedy2 said:

rottenborough said:
https://twitter.com/LarrySabato/status/1224819318333927424
I'm so annoyed about everyone calling it for Buttigieg on State Delegates on a lead of less than 2% on State Delegates when we don't know what that 38% of votes left is from.

I'm not calling the race and no one should until we know where that vote is from.
This partial result is going to dominate the news cycle and potentially influence subsequent primaries, too.

But it's a giant mess, so any result will be diminished in importance because no one will believe that they are accurate.

TheWhiteRabbit · February 2020

Pulpstar said:

Kevin_McCandless said:
Klobuchar running for Veep nomination at this point. And is strongly ahead.
Sanders-Klobuchar would be a very strong ticket, has both wings of the party.

Klobuchar too much of an opponent off healthcare reform, I think

rottenborough · February 2020

Buttigieg had his field ops in places no one had ever heard of iirc.

Looks like the rural votes have come in, judging by the maps. But I'm no expert on Iowa countryside.

Stereotomy · February 2020

speedy2 said:

Stereotomy said:

speedy2 said:

rottenborough said:
https://twitter.com/LarrySabato/status/1224819318333927424
I'm so annoyed about everyone calling it for Buttigieg on State Delegates on a lead of less than 2% on State Delegates when we don't know what that 38% of votes left is from.

I'm not calling the race and no one should until we know where that vote is from.
This partial result is going to dominate the news cycle and potentially influence subsequent primaries, too.
But it's a giant mess, so any result will be diminished in importance because no one will believe that they are accurate.

Yes, which also damages the actual winner, compared to the results just coming out as they were supposed to.

rottenborough · February 2020

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Pulpstar said:

Kevin_McCandless said:
Klobuchar running for Veep nomination at this point. And is strongly ahead.
Sanders-Klobuchar would be a very strong ticket, has both wings of the party.
Klobuchar too much of an opponent off healthcare reform, I think

Sanders-Klobuchar is a losing ticket. Why would someone who might win saddle herself to a loser?

TheGreenMachine · February 2020

TheScreamingEagles said:
Not that I'm getting ahead of myself but I'm trying to work out the odds of Liverpool achieving the following this season

1) Completing the PL, CL, and FA Cup, treble
2) Getting over 100 points
3) Going unbeaten in the PL

If all three happen then I will be positively unbearable*.

*More so than usual.

2 & 3 , I fancy them.

1, not so much.

rottenborough · February 2020

Foxy said:

tyson said:

Foxy said:

Pulpstar said:

Foxy said:

rottenborough said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

HYUFD said:
https://twitter.com/CillizzaCNN/status/1224816296195502081?s=20
Looks like the first alignment figures to me
Good point.

Big picture: not great for Sleepy Joe, is it?
If that's 1st, then it has to be Pete doesn't it?
Yep. Biden will be out by Super Tuesday. Bernie afterwards, I reckon.
Writing Bernie Sanders off after this result is a hilariously bad take.
Stake your money as you choose.

Sanders will probably get New Hampshire, but not enough on super Tuesday.
Strangely, this may well work out for the Bern......better for him to build up momentum rather than rush ahead with a huge target on his back.,....
Nah, the overwhelming thing for Dems is to have a candidate who can beat Trump. That isn't going to be Bernie or Joe.

Momentum is what matters in first two states.

MikeSmithson · February 2020

https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1224823832659333120

SandyRentool · February 2020

TheScreamingEagles said:
So I best get learning how to properly pronounce Buttigieg.

Just say " Buttplug" in a confident way, and see how many people follow you in...

rottenborough · February 2020

BF - sanders 3; Buttigieg 1.4

Stereotomy · February 2020

tyson said:

Foxy said:

Pulpstar said:

Foxy said:

rottenborough said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

HYUFD said:
https://twitter.com/CillizzaCNN/status/1224816296195502081?s=20
Looks like the first alignment figures to me
Good point.

Big picture: not great for Sleepy Joe, is it?
If that's 1st, then it has to be Pete doesn't it?
Yep. Biden will be out by Super Tuesday. Bernie afterwards, I reckon.
Writing Bernie Sanders off after this result is a hilariously bad take.
Stake your money as you choose.

Sanders will probably get New Hampshire, but not enough on super Tuesday.
Strangely, this may well work out for the Bern......better for him to build up momentum rather than rush ahead with a huge target on his back.,....

If Biden's collapse continues, and if Bernie does end up winning the first three states, South Carolina will be an interesting one.

rcs1000 · February 2020

TheWhiteRabbit said:

tyson said:

Foxy said:

Pulpstar said:

Foxy said:

rottenborough said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

HYUFD said:
https://twitter.com/CillizzaCNN/status/1224816296195502081?s=20
Looks like the first alignment figures to me
Good point.

Big picture: not great for Sleepy Joe, is it?
If that's 1st, then it has to be Pete doesn't it?
Yep. Biden will be out by Super Tuesday. Bernie afterwards, I reckon.
Writing Bernie Sanders off after this result is a hilariously bad take.
Stake your money as you choose.

Sanders will probably get New Hampshire, but not enough on super Tuesday.
Strangely, this may well work out for the Bern......better for him to build up momentum rather than rush ahead with a huge target on his back.,....
He won't mind the race becoming Bernie v Pete too much. Warren did a little too well in Iowa though for his liking

That is Sanders problem. The ideal result for him would be Sanders-Buttigieg-Biden as it would keep two moderates in the race, and drop Warren out.

But Buttigieg-Sanders-Warren is harder because there is the risk that Biden (who has no money) ends up dropping out. In which case you have one moderate (Buttigieg) and two left wingers.

tyson · February 2020

Foxy said:

tyson said:

Foxy said:

Pulpstar said:

Foxy said:

rottenborough said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

HYUFD said:
https://twitter.com/CillizzaCNN/status/1224816296195502081?s=20
Looks like the first alignment figures to me
Good point.

Big picture: not great for Sleepy Joe, is it?
If that's 1st, then it has to be Pete doesn't it?
Yep. Biden will be out by Super Tuesday. Bernie afterwards, I reckon.
Writing Bernie Sanders off after this result is a hilariously bad take.
Stake your money as you choose.

Sanders will probably get New Hampshire, but not enough on super Tuesday.
Strangely, this may well work out for the Bern......better for him to build up momentum rather than rush ahead with a huge target on his back.,....
Nah, the overwhelming thing for Dems is to have a candidate who can beat Trump. That isn't going to be Bernie or Joe.

I agree on the sentiment- but Bernie stands a better chance of winning if he comes through on the sidelines rather than a frontman...

rottenborough · February 2020

Anyone know when we get the result of the results? Not worth staying up much longer.

MarqueeMark · February 2020

TheScreamingEagles said:
So I best get learning how to properly pronounce Buttigieg.

Or just keep him as Booty-gig.

"It's the Booty-gig economy, stupid....."

rottenborough · February 2020

MikeSmithson said:
https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1224823832659333120

Looks like you called 'too old' Biden right Mike. But bigger states to come.

rcs1000 · February 2020

Stereotomy said:

tyson said:

Foxy said:

Pulpstar said:

Foxy said:

rottenborough said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

HYUFD said:
https://twitter.com/CillizzaCNN/status/1224816296195502081?s=20
Looks like the first alignment figures to me
Good point.

Big picture: not great for Sleepy Joe, is it?
If that's 1st, then it has to be Pete doesn't it?
Yep. Biden will be out by Super Tuesday. Bernie afterwards, I reckon.
Writing Bernie Sanders off after this result is a hilariously bad take.
Stake your money as you choose.

Sanders will probably get New Hampshire, but not enough on super Tuesday.
Strangely, this may well work out for the Bern......better for him to build up momentum rather than rush ahead with a huge target on his back.,....
If Biden's collapse continues, and if Bernie does end up winning the first three states, South Carolina will be an interesting one.

Bernie won't win Iowa.

There are too many precincts in Buttigieg friendly rural districts.

Alistair · February 2020

Now would be a terrible time to go over the message archives and pick out what people were saying about who was 100% definetly
guaranteed to win (or not win) the nomination.

I think I have a bad Sanders prediction in there.

Endillion · February 2020

speedy2 said:

Stereotomy said:

speedy2 said:

rottenborough said:
https://twitter.com/LarrySabato/status/1224819318333927424
I'm so annoyed about everyone calling it for Buttigieg on State Delegates on a lead of less than 2% on State Delegates when we don't know what that 38% of votes left is from.

I'm not calling the race and no one should until we know where that vote is from.
This partial result is going to dominate the news cycle and potentially influence subsequent primaries, too.
But it's a giant mess, so any result will be diminished in importance because no one will believe that they are accurate.

Don't agree. The winner (or winner presumptive) is going to be constantly in the news between now and New Hampshire next Tuesday. And Pete is already drawing fire from Trump, which makes him look even better. This might be even better for Pete than if they'd just announced him the winner last night and then moved on.

rcs1000 · February 2020

speedy2 said:

Alistair said:
Makes up for the fact I laid Pete for the Nom down to zero a little while ago.
Well he won't be the nominee even if he wins Iowa because minorities hate him.
It's all about who else won't be the nominee.

Yet he was Mayor of a majority African American City

HYUFD · February 2020

Foxy said:

tyson said:

Foxy said:

Pulpstar said:

Foxy said:

rottenborough said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

HYUFD said:
https://twitter.com/CillizzaCNN/status/1224816296195502081?s=20
Looks like the first alignment figures to me
Good point.

Big picture: not great for Sleepy Joe, is it?
If that's 1st, then it has to be Pete doesn't it?
Yep. Biden will be out by Super Tuesday. Bernie afterwards, I reckon.
Writing Bernie Sanders off after this result is a hilariously bad take.
Stake your money as you choose.

Sanders will probably get New Hampshire, but not enough on super Tuesday.
Strangely, this may well work out for the Bern......better for him to build up momentum rather than rush ahead with a huge target on his back.,....
Nah, the overwhelming thing for Dems is to have a candidate who can beat Trump. That isn't going to be Bernie or Joe.

Not necessarily
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1224463798054129664?s=20
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1223311559625019392?s=20

Nigelb · February 2020

rcs1000 said:

speedy2 said:

Alistair said:
Makes up for the fact I laid Pete for the Nom down to zero a little while ago.
Well he won't be the nominee even if he wins Iowa because minorities hate him.
It's all about who else won't be the nominee.
Yet he was Mayor of a majority African American City

“Minorities hare him” is not exactly a factual statement...

Stereotomy · February 2020

rcs1000 said:

speedy2 said:

Alistair said:
Makes up for the fact I laid Pete for the Nom down to zero a little while ago.
Well he won't be the nominee even if he wins Iowa because minorities hate him.
It's all about who else won't be the nominee.
Yet he was Mayor of a majority African American City

Yep, and his record in that role is one big reason they hate him.

speedy2 · February 2020

We have precinct data.
Half of the vote is outstanding in Des Moine.

Foxy · February 2020

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Pulpstar said:

Kevin_McCandless said:
Klobuchar running for Veep nomination at this point. And is strongly ahead.
Sanders-Klobuchar would be a very strong ticket, has both wings of the party.
Klobuchar too much of an opponent off healthcare reform, I think

Though very active on drug pricing, particularly insulin and related items. Amy is more of a gradualist on health care, I can see that playing well in Middle America.

HYUFD · February 2020

rcs1000 said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

tyson said:

Foxy said:

Pulpstar said:

Foxy said:

rottenborough said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

HYUFD said:
https://twitter.com/CillizzaCNN/status/1224816296195502081?s=20
Looks like the first alignment figures to me
Good point.

Big picture: not great for Sleepy Joe, is it?
If that's 1st, then it has to be Pete doesn't it?
Yep. Biden will be out by Super Tuesday. Bernie afterwards, I reckon.
Writing Bernie Sanders off after this result is a hilariously bad take.
Stake your money as you choose.

Sanders will probably get New Hampshire, but not enough on super Tuesday.
Strangely, this may well work out for the Bern......better for him to build up momentum rather than rush ahead with a huge target on his back.,....
He won't mind the race becoming Bernie v Pete too much. Warren did a little too well in Iowa though for his liking
That is Sanders problem. The ideal result for him would be Sanders-Buttigieg-Biden as it would keep two moderates in the race, and drop Warren out.

But Buttigieg-Sanders-Warren is harder because there is the risk that Biden (who has no money) ends up dropping out. In which case you have one moderate (Buttigieg) and two left wingers.

Biden will likely win South Carolina regardless and stay in the race

Endillion · February 2020

rcs1000 said:

speedy2 said:

Alistair said:
Makes up for the fact I laid Pete for the Nom down to zero a little while ago.
Well he won't be the nominee even if he wins Iowa because minorities hate him.
It's all about who else won't be the nominee.
Yet he was Mayor of a majority African American City

Exactly. The AA vote loves Biden because Obama. That feeling won't survive contact with reality going into South Carolina, unless Biden improves drastically in the next few contests. So their votes are all up for grabs.

AndreaParma_82 · February 2020

Labour CLPs nominations at the end of the night...deadline is Feb 14th

https://twitter.com/CLPNominations/status/1224822439835664385?s=20

Thornberry picked Brentwood & Ongar and Vale of Glamorgan tonight.

She needs 33 CLPs

speedy2 · February 2020

rcs1000 said:

speedy2 said:

Alistair said:
Makes up for the fact I laid Pete for the Nom down to zero a little while ago.
Well he won't be the nominee even if he wins Iowa because minorities hate him.
It's all about who else won't be the nominee.
Yet he was Mayor of a majority African American City

That's why he gets 0% of African Am.
His record is a lead weight.

Foxy · February 2020

HYUFD said:

Foxy said:

tyson said:

Foxy said:

Pulpstar said:

Foxy said:

rottenborough said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

HYUFD said:
https://twitter.com/CillizzaCNN/status/1224816296195502081?s=20
Looks like the first alignment figures to me
Good point.

Big picture: not great for Sleepy Joe, is it?
If that's 1st, then it has to be Pete doesn't it?
Yep. Biden will be out by Super Tuesday. Bernie afterwards, I reckon.
Writing Bernie Sanders off after this result is a hilariously bad take.
Stake your money as you choose.

Sanders will probably get New Hampshire, but not enough on super Tuesday.
Strangely, this may well work out for the Bern......better for him to build up momentum rather than rush ahead with a huge target on his back.,....
Nah, the overwhelming thing for Dems is to have a candidate who can beat Trump. That isn't going to be Bernie or Joe.
Not necessarily
//twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1224463798054129664?s=20
/twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1223311559625019392?s=20

Bless! After believing the polls in Iowa...

Sunil_Prasannan · February 2020

TheScreamingEagles said:
Not that I'm getting ahead of myself but I'm trying to work out the odds of Liverpool achieving the following this season

1) Completing the PL, CL, and FA Cup, treble
2) Getting over 100 points
3) Going unbeaten in the PL

If all three happen then I will be positively unbearable*.

*More so than usual.

It's a fair Kop...

rottenborough · February 2020

speedy2 said:
We have precinct data.
Half of the vote is outstanding in Des Moine.

Thanks. Probably not Pete country?

Nigelb · February 2020

Foxy said:

HYUFD said:

Foxy said:

tyson said:

Foxy said:

Pulpstar said:

Foxy said:

rottenborough said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

HYUFD said:
https://twitter.com/CillizzaCNN/status/1224816296195502081?s=20
Looks like the first alignment figures to me
Good point.

Big picture: not great for Sleepy Joe, is it?
If that's 1st, then it has to be Pete doesn't it?
Yep. Biden will be out by Super Tuesday. Bernie afterwards, I reckon.
Writing Bernie Sanders off after this result is a hilariously bad take.
Stake your money as you choose.

Sanders will probably get New Hampshire, but not enough on super Tuesday.
Strangely, this may well work out for the Bern......better for him to build up momentum rather than rush ahead with a huge target on his back.,....
Nah, the overwhelming thing for Dems is to have a candidate who can beat Trump. That isn't going to be Bernie or Joe.
Not necessarily
//twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1224463798054129664?s=20
/twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1223311559625019392?s=20
Bless! After believing the polls in Iowa...

Next week’s polling will be more interesting, after this result has had a couple of days of media exposure.

FrancisUrquhart · February 2020

David Cameron's bodyguard sparks panic on BA flight from London to New York when passenger finds loaded Glock pistol he accidentally left in toilets of jet

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7966945/David-Camerons-bodyguard-leaves-gun-jet-toilet.html

brokenwheel · February 2020

rcs1000 said:

speedy2 said:

Alistair said:
Makes up for the fact I laid Pete for the Nom down to zero a little while ago.
Well he won't be the nominee even if he wins Iowa because minorities hate him.
It's all about who else won't be the nominee.
Yet he was Mayor of a majority African American City

South Bend is majority African American?

AndreaParma_82 · February 2020

Situation in the Deputy race

https://twitter.com/CLPNominations/status/1224823709678161923?s=20

Murray nominated by Perthshire South and Kinross and Glasgow Pollock tonight. There should be enough Scottish CLPs left for him to reach 33

Allin-Khan got 4 CLPs tonight: Brentwood and Ongar, North Wiltshire, Wimbledon, Vale of Glamorgan

FrancisUrquhart · February 2020

Watching CNN this evening, seems like Mayor Pete is their favourite candidate. Bigging him up while barely mentioning Sanders or Warren.

rottenborough · February 2020

speedy2 said:
We have precinct data.
Half of the vote is outstanding in Des Moine.

Yet Sanders is only just ahead in Polk County. (ie, Des Moine)

rcs1000 · February 2020

speedy2 said:
We have precinct data.
Half of the vote is outstanding in Des Moine.

Buttigieg is only two points behind Bernie in Des Moines. If that were true for all the remaining precincts (and there are a lot of rural precincts still to come), Buttigieg would still will by a percent.

People betting on Sanders here are idiots. The real odds should be 10 or 12 to 1.

Foxy · February 2020

Stereotomy said:

rcs1000 said:

speedy2 said:

Alistair said:
Makes up for the fact I laid Pete for the Nom down to zero a little while ago.
Well he won't be the nominee even if he wins Iowa because minorities hate him.
It's all about who else won't be the nominee.
Yet he was Mayor of a majority African American City
Yep, and his record in that role is one big reason they hate him.

In 2015 he got 80% of the vote in South Bend. Presumably at least some of the other 20% were Republicans...

rottenborough · February 2020

Looks like Sanders did best in Sioux City

Alistair · February 2020

speedy2 said:
We have precinct data.
Half of the vote is outstanding in Des Moine.

Oooofffff. May go back in and back Bernie

rcs1000 · February 2020

95/177 precincts in Des Moines have reported. That's 56%, barely different from the 61% reported number for state as a whole.

This implies that Sanders is unlikely to get a meaningful boost from Des Moines being so far underrepresented.

Nigelb · February 2020

FrancisUrquhart said:
Watching CNN this evening, seems like Mayor Pete is their favourite candidate. Bigging him up while barely mentioning Sanders or Warren.

He’s news, that’s why. Sanders was expected to win.

rottenborough · February 2020

FrancisUrquhart said:
Watching CNN this evening, seems like Mayor Pete is their favourite candidate. Bigging him up while barely mentioning Sanders or Warren.

The torch is passing to a new generation.

AramintaMoonbeamQC · February 2020

TheScreamingEagles said:
So I best get learning how to properly pronounce Buttigieg.

Like the t shirts say, Boot Edge Edge.

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