politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A tale of twelve cities. The perplexing underperformance of Br

Gabs3 said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Starmer destroys his opponents in IPSOS polling, a leader with a positive net approval!

Is that because the only people that have heard of him are Labour supporters?

No, the polling is clear that Starmer's net +5% favourability rating is nothing to do with differential rates of responses. Virtually the same proportion of Conservative and Labour knew enough about Starmer to express an opinion on him, one way or the other.

https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/low-public-awareness-all-labour-leadership-candidates-although-keir-starmer-starting-stronger

The case for Klobucher:

https://thehill.com/opinion/white-house/480929-democrats-need-a-dark-horse-not-a-frontrunner-to-win-in-november

CatMan said:

isam said:

brokenwheel said:

Explains why the PM's announcement mentioned the issue of early convicted terrorist release...

https://twitter.com/matt_dathan/status/1224068679446548481
https://twitter.com/matt_dathan/status/1224069009534062593
https://twitter.com/matt_dathan/status/1224069958293913602

Another one for https://www.attackersmokedcannabis.com

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/crime/isis-behead-parents-girlfriend-teenage-supporter-london-terror-attack-sudesh-amman-a8687921.html

Good thing no one has ever acted violent under the influence of Alcohol.

They have, and it’s got nothing to do with the fact that smoking cannabis causes lifelong mental illness and a great percentage of mass killers and terrorists were users.

The scary thing is that these people weren’t under the influence of it at the time, the damage was done previously

brokenwheel said:

not_on_fire said:

Britain‘s problem is that it doesn’t really have a 2nd City. There is no equivalent of Marseilles, Frankfurt, Milan etc to counterbalance London in a meaningful way. The likes of Birmingham, Manchester and Glasgow are “3rd cities” really

Many would argue that this is directly due to post-war policy that has seen power centered in London. The UK is now one of the most centralised major economies in the world, it wasn't like that when those cities were booming in 19th Century.

I mean you say Manchester is a "3rd city" but its metro is larger than either Marseilles or Lyon. It economically underperforms both, but then for most infrastructure spending it is entirely dependant on central government to decide what is spent (usually nothing).

This does not happen in other developed countries.

The distance between Liverpool and Leeds (and Sheffield, but the Pennines are in the way) is roughly the same as the diameter of Greater London if you include its satellite towns - with Manchester and its airport slap bang in the middle. If you could spend to link up those three, offer tax incentives for companies to base themselves there, it would make a pretty good second hub. You've already had tentative moves with Media City and C4 to Leeds, but really needs government to be far more proactive. If I were Boris it's where I'd be focusing my love of vaguely fantastical projects.

Benpointer said:

Mortimer said:

Quincel said:

Floater said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

AlastairMeeks said:

twitter.com/alliehbnews/status/1224078891792392194?s=21

Small print...Nissan will close European mainland plants in Spain and France if required and double down on production in the UK.

Isn't that exactly the opposite of what was previously claimed?

It is. The opposite of what they suggested too. This is the company which insisted on a special meeting with the May government where they were allegedly promised we'd get frictionless trade in return for them promising not to pull out of the UK.

It would be a brave move for Nissan, and great news for some towns and cities in the UK.

All the mood music about the UK-EU future trading position strategy is really clicking together now.

I'm glad that we have finally a govt capable of recognising the tremendous value of our massive internal market to both the EU and the ROW.

Sequencing of the withdrawal/trade talks not looking too favourable to the EU now - seems that the second stage talks even up the imbalance of the first.

"our massive internal market" ??

It's not really 'massive' compared to the EU, USA, China, India or Japan is it?

In what way is it massive?

It's in the worlds top half a dozen markets in the entire globe. That's still massive.

Dura_Ace said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

We are an independent, free trading, seafaring nation. We've just returned to the norm.

We aren't a seafaring nation any longer. About 2.something% of tonnage is carried on British flagged ships and only a small proportion of the crew of those would be British.

Maybe Johnson is planning to restore the Red Ensign to its former glory with a massive program of merchant shipbuilding on the Clyde, Mersey and Tyne. They will be needed to bring this year's record jute harvest from Calcutta to Dundee. It's definitely the type of shit he would bore on about though less so the type of thing he would actually do.

NYT:

"Wuhan Coronavirus Looks Increasingly Like a Pandemic, Experts Say
Rapidly rising caseloads alarm researchers, who fear the virus may make its way across the globe. But scientists cannot yet predict how many deaths may result."

not_on_fire said:

Britain‘s problem is that it doesn’t really have a 2nd City. There is no equivalent of Marseilles, Frankfurt, Milan etc to counterbalance London in a meaningful way. The likes of Birmingham, Manchester and Glasgow are “3rd cities” really

The problem is that London is so much better than blooming Berlin or Milan (Rome not really being the first city of Italy, economically). London is even better at powerful-city business than Paris, based on the net migration direction. How do you balance for its global leadership role that also attracts thousands of talented UK workers - should you even try, or accept that different people will sort into different cities based on personal ambition, and tax the gains to benefit others?

Philip_Thompson said:

isam said:

CatMan said:

isam said:

brokenwheel said:

Explains why the PM's announcement mentioned the issue of early convicted terrorist release...

https://twitter.com/matt_dathan/status/1224068679446548481
https://twitter.com/matt_dathan/status/1224069009534062593
https://twitter.com/matt_dathan/status/1224069958293913602

Another one for https://www.attackersmokedcannabis.com

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/crime/isis-behead-parents-girlfriend-teenage-supporter-london-terror-attack-sudesh-amman-a8687921.html

Good thing no one has ever acted violent under the influence of Alcohol.

They have, and it’s got nothing to do with the fact that smoking cannabis causes lifelong mental illness and a great percentage of mass killers and terrorists were users.

The scary thing is that these people weren’t under the influence of it at the time, the damage was done previously

All the more reason to recognise prohibition has failed and didn't prevent this damage.

Yes let’s have something that sends young people insane mass produced, sold in shops on the High St and advertised on tv, what a great idea

Quincel said:

Mortimer said:

Quincel said:

Floater said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

AlastairMeeks said:

twitter.com/alliehbnews/status/1224078891792392194?s=21

Small print...Nissan will close European mainland plants in Spain and France if required and double down on production in the UK.

Isn't that exactly the opposite of what was previously claimed?

It is. The opposite of what they suggested too. This is the company which insisted on a special meeting with the May government where they were allegedly promised we'd get frictionless trade in return for them promising not to pull out of the UK.

It would be a brave move for Nissan, and great news for some towns and cities in the UK.

All the mood music about the UK-EU future trading position strategy is really clicking together now.

I'm glad that we have finally a govt capable of recognising the tremendous value of our massive internal market to both the EU and the ROW.

Sequencing of the withdrawal/trade talks not looking too favourable to the EU now - seems that the second stage talks even up the imbalance of the first.

Perhaps, or perhaps this is a rumour which never pans out beyond tomorrow's chip paper. Time will tell, and I don't see how we can know in advance.

The raison d'etre of the FT is that businesses should be able to rely on what they read in its pages. That is, news should be reported without being subject to any particular niche political filter designed to appeal to its targeted market segment.

So, conflating the FT with chip paper is a bit rich. There is clearly something behind this, even if it should not necessarily be read at face value. Regardless of what they are actually planning, I suspect that this is evidence of Nissan's frustration with the EU. By going public with that frustration, Nissan may be trying to get EU governments to recognise that they are not in that strong a negotiating position and that a more pragmatic negotiating stance is warranted.

Wulfrun_Phil said:

Quincel said:

Mortimer said:

Quincel said:

Floater said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

AlastairMeeks said:

twitter.com/alliehbnews/status/1224078891792392194?s=21

Small print...Nissan will close European mainland plants in Spain and France if required and double down on production in the UK.

Isn't that exactly the opposite of what was previously claimed?

It is. The opposite of what they suggested too. This is the company which insisted on a special meeting with the May government where they were allegedly promised we'd get frictionless trade in return for them promising not to pull out of the UK.

It would be a brave move for Nissan, and great news for some towns and cities in the UK.

All the mood music about the UK-EU future trading position strategy is really clicking together now.

I'm glad that we have finally a govt capable of recognising the tremendous value of our massive internal market to both the EU and the ROW.

Sequencing of the withdrawal/trade talks not looking too favourable to the EU now - seems that the second stage talks even up the imbalance of the first.

Perhaps, or perhaps this is a rumour which never pans out beyond tomorrow's chip paper. Time will tell, and I don't see how we can know in advance.

The raison d'etre of the FT is that businesses should be able to rely on what they read in its pages. That is, news should be reported without being subject to any particular niche political filter designed to appeal to its targeted market segment.

So, conflating the FT with chip paper is a bit rich. There is clearly something behind this, even if it should not necessarily be read at face value. Regardless of what they are actually planning, I suspect that this is evidence of Nissan's frustration with the EU. By going public with that frustration, Nissan may be trying to get EU governments to recognise that they are not in that strong a negotiating position and that a more pragmatic negotiating stance is warranted.

Also, who wants pink chips?

Wulfrun_Phil said:

Gabs3 said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Starmer destroys his opponents in IPSOS polling, a leader with a positive net approval!

Is that because the only people that have heard of him are Labour supporters?

No, the polling is clear that Starmer's net +5% favourability rating is nothing to do with differential rates of responses. Virtually the same proportion of Conservative and Labour knew enough about Starmer to express an opinion on him, one way or the other.

https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/low-public-awareness-all-labour-leadership-candidates-although-keir-starmer-starting-stronger

Starmer has a -17% rating with 2019 Tory voters, worse than Nandy's -11% albeit better than Long Bailey's -38% rating with Tories.

Starmer does lead with Labour voters though

speedy2 said:

Biden's campaign is going down the toilet at the moment, John Kerry (who is supporting Biden) is considering joining the race as a candidate of his own to try to stop Bernie Sanders:
https://twitter.com/NBCNews/status/1224078785332633600
That's not a vote of confidence for Biden.

The idea Kerry thinks the Democratic base are going to pick the man who lost to George W Bush over Bernie is absurd, if a former twice elected VP like Biden can't beat him he certainly can't

Casino_Royale said:

If Sinn Fein are in Government either side of the Irish border I wonder if they'll push for a border poll?

Sinn Fein are already in Government in Northern Ireland (but with fewer votes and seats than the DUP), however both Fine Gael and Fianna Fail have said they will refuse to work with them in the Republic.

In any case they can ask all they want, Boris will tell them a firm no exactly as he has to Sturgeon

rottenborough said:

The virus seems to be flattening out in China.

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Or they've run out of testing kits.

Final Emerson poll:
https://twitter.com/EmersonPolling/status/1224105219438661632

FrancisUrquhart said:

Time for the hand-egg finals...

American Rugby, I think you mean!

edmundintokyo said:

Final Emerson poll:
https://twitter.com/EmersonPolling/status/1224105219438661632

A 7% win for Sanders would be bigger than Hillary's Iowa caucuses win in 2016 and Kerry's in 2004 and about as big a win as Obama's in 2008

HYUFD said:

Casino_Royale said:

If Sinn Fein are in Government either side of the Irish border I wonder if they'll push for a border poll?

Sinn Fein are already in Government in Northern Ireland (but with fewer votes and seats than the DUP), however both Fine Gael and Fianna Fail have said they will refuse to work with them in the Republic.

If it's good enough for Arlene, it's good enough for Leo or Michael?

HYUFD said:

edmundintokyo said:

Final Emerson poll:
https://twitter.com/EmersonPolling/status/1224105219438661632

A 7% win for Sanders would be bigger than Hillary's Iowa caucuses win in 2016 and Kerry's in 2004 and about as big a win as Obama's in 2008

True but mostly an artifact of a split field. You could also say OMG WTF Bernie lost nearly half his support in 4 years.

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1224108553977368577?s=20

HYUFD said:

Wulfrun_Phil said:

Gabs3 said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Starmer destroys his opponents in IPSOS polling, a leader with a positive net approval!

Is that because the only people that have heard of him are Labour supporters?

No, the polling is clear that Starmer's net +5% favourability rating is nothing to do with differential rates of responses. Virtually the same proportion of Conservative and Labour knew enough about Starmer to express an opinion on him, one way or the other.

https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/low-public-awareness-all-labour-leadership-candidates-although-keir-starmer-starting-stronger

Starmer has a -17% rating with 2019 Tory voters, worse than Nandy's -11% albeit better than Long Bailey's -38% rating with Tories.

Starmer does lead with Labour voters though

If Starmer could go into the 2024 general election with a mere -17% net unfavourability rating amongst 2019 Tory voters, then Labour would probably win.

The statistic that for me stood out was this one. Starmer has a net +1% favourability rating amongst all voters aged 55+. That is stunningly good, when put in context, which is that amongst the same 55+ age cohort the Labour Party in general has a -58% rating and Corbyn has -78%.

TheGreenMachine said:

Ireland Update :

Excellent. Varadkhar in 3rd place, despite his latest rather desperate attempts to play the anti-British card.

Wulfrun_Phil said:

TheGreenMachine said:

Ireland Update :

Excellent. Varadkhar in 3rd place, despite his latest rather desperate attempts to play the anti-British card.

None of those parties are exactly pro British (they were all formed out of the Irish War of Independence and Irish civil war, though Fine Gael is traditionally the least hostile being formed from the pro Anglo Irish Treaty forces of Michael Collins). They are all anti Brexit.

It is also rather ironic that while Varadkar insists on Sinn Fein being part of the Northern Irish government he says he will refuse to allow them any part of the Republic of Ireland government

Wulfrun_Phil said:

TheGreenMachine said:

Ireland Update :

Excellent. Varadkhar in 3rd place, despite his latest rather desperate attempts to play the anti-British card.

Excellent that perennially pro British Sinn Fein is in joint first place.

Theuniondivvie said:

Wulfrun_Phil said:

TheGreenMachine said:

Ireland Update :

Excellent. Varadkhar in 3rd place, despite his latest rather desperate attempts to play the anti-British card.

'Excellent that perennially pro British Sinn Fein is in joint first place.'

Varadkar is hardly pro British is he and who leads the Irish Republic (which is no longer even in the Commonwealth) does not really make much difference to post Brexit UK when all 3 are hardly fans of Brexit, though I see both Varadkar and Martin have said they would work together rather than allow Sinn Fein into Government

Wulfrun_Phil said:

Quincel said:

Mortimer said:

Quincel said:

Floater said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

AlastairMeeks said:

twitter.com/alliehbnews/status/1224078891792392194?s=21

Small print...Nissan will close European mainland plants in Spain and France if required and double down on production in the UK.

Isn't that exactly the opposite of what was previously claimed?

It is. The opposite of what they suggested too. This is the company which insisted on a special meeting with the May government where they were allegedly promised we'd get frictionless trade in return for them promising not to pull out of the UK.

It would be a brave move for Nissan, and great news for some towns and cities in the UK.

All the mood music about the UK-EU future trading position strategy is really clicking together now.

I'm glad that we have finally a govt capable of recognising the tremendous value of our massive internal market to both the EU and the ROW.

Sequencing of the withdrawal/trade talks not looking too favourable to the EU now - seems that the second stage talks even up the imbalance of the first.

Perhaps, or perhaps this is a rumour which never pans out beyond tomorrow's chip paper. Time will tell, and I don't see how we can know in advance.

The raison d'etre of the FT is that businesses should be able to rely on what they read in its pages. That is, news should be reported without being subject to any particular niche political filter designed to appeal to its targeted market segment.

So, conflating the FT with chip paper is a bit rich. There is clearly something behind this, even if it should not necessarily be read at face value. Regardless of what they are actually planning, I suspect that this is evidence of Nissan's frustration with the EU. By going public with that frustration, Nissan may be trying to get EU governments to recognise that they are not in that strong a negotiating position and that a more pragmatic negotiating stance is warranted.

That was pretty much my reading too.

isam said:

https://twitter.com/daisychristo/status/1223648167385796611?s=21

I've got her book somewhere. I did not realise she is a West Ham fan, although as she is brainy enough to have won University Challenge almost single-handedly, it is not surprising.

Does Matt Hancock even own a map? Britain has chucked £20 million into the pot to develop a coronavirus vaccine.

Health Secretary Matt Hancock said the money would help the UK lead the way in developing a new inoculation.

So far, so good. But: The UK's money will help fund the efforts of Dr Kate Broderick, a 42-year-old Scot based in California, who is working to create a coronavirus vaccine.

Last time I checked, Scotland California is not actually in Britain.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51352952

rcs1000 said:

Wulfrun_Phil said:

Quincel said:

Mortimer said:

Quincel said:

Floater said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

AlastairMeeks said:

twitter.com/alliehbnews/status/1224078891792392194?s=21

Small print...Nissan will close European mainland plants in Spain and France if required and double down on production in the UK.

Isn't that exactly the opposite of what was previously claimed?

It is. The opposite of what they suggested too. This is the company which insisted on a special meeting with the May government where they were allegedly promised we'd get frictionless trade in return for them promising not to pull out of the UK.

It would be a brave move for Nissan, and great news for some towns and cities in the UK.

All the mood music about the UK-EU future trading position strategy is really clicking together now.

I'm glad that we have finally a govt capable of recognising the tremendous value of our massive internal market to both the EU and the ROW.

Sequencing of the withdrawal/trade talks not looking too favourable to the EU now - seems that the second stage talks even up the imbalance of the first.

Perhaps, or perhaps this is a rumour which never pans out beyond tomorrow's chip paper. Time will tell, and I don't see how we can know in advance.

The raison d'etre of the FT is that businesses should be able to rely on what they read in its pages. That is, news should be reported without being subject to any particular niche political filter designed to appeal to its targeted market segment.

So, conflating the FT with chip paper is a bit rich. There is clearly something behind this, even if it should not necessarily be read at face value. Regardless of what they are actually planning, I suspect that this is evidence of Nissan's frustration with the EU. By going public with that frustration, Nissan may be trying to get EU governments to recognise that they are not in that strong a negotiating position and that a more pragmatic negotiating stance is warranted.

That was pretty much my reading too.

Hopefully the EU’s politicians will eventually get the message.

Although right now they seem to be redefining the level playing field to mean signing up blind to whatever their next social or regulatory policy change happens to be.

It is very quiet in the new thread.