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The poll isn't going to get released. Des Moines Register CNN cancels release of Iowa Poll over respondent concerns https://t.co/FdCUVys5Hm
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KLOBUCHAR SURGE!
https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1223790666511192064
I guess they didn't like the result, because it's easy to fix the error.
The question is, though, how many interviewers are there?
If there are 400 respondents, interviewed over four days, then it's 100/day. That might be as few as four people making calls
https://twitter.com/PollsterPatrick/status/1223791180376346625
Anyway given the movement since the beggining of January it probably would have showed a Sanders lead of around 7, but that's just speculating based on the polling average.
I guess the Register will be using a different pollster in 2024!
https://twitter.com/PoliticsReid/status/1223807687047159808?s=19
https://mobile.twitter.com/Cernovich/status/1223804822891032576?s=19
Sanders: 22%
Warren: 18%
Buttigieg: 16%
Biden: 13%
Too many undecideds, methinks, although if the also-rans add up 10-15% total, perhaps not. I’ve no dog in this contest or the GE, but I would find such a result for Biden quite comical, he really is running on nothing but his alleged “electability.”
Reminds me of the programmer I spoke to last week who said he couldn’t replicate his software running so slowly as to be completely unusable - on his $4,000 dev workstation. Well of course it ran well on that machine - but the real world users have something several orders of magnitude less powerful!
The big issue Sanders has is that the combined Sanders plus Warren has been stuck in the mid to high 30s. He needs the moderate vote to remain split between Biden, Buttigieg and Klobuchar, while (ideally) seeing Warren miss the 15% cut off in as many precincts as possible.
"Why snooker won't survive the decade
Barney Ronay on the sports that have no future
Sun 10 Jan 2010"
https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2010/jan/10/future-of-snooker
https://twitter.com/globaltimesnews/status/1223774570043232256
If it’s correct that patients exhibit no symptoms whist contagious for up to two weeks, the worst could be still to come.
The professional game is in rude health. There are tournaments nearly every week throughout the season, compared to just half a dozen 10 years ago.
Apart from the major ones carried by the BBC, Eurosport covers them all and apparently gets good viewing figures throughout Europe. It’s also very popular on TV in China and the Far East, and the model is being replicated in India and the Americas.
Prize money and sponsorship have increased substantially so that it’s possible for a larger number of players to make a living from the sport.
The problem in the UK is the contraction of the amateur game with the closure of many snooker clubs. This has resulted in fewer young players coming through. China is producing good players, but they are not yet going on to win tournaments.
It’s still the same group of largely UK players that are reaching the final stages of most tournaments. Good for viewers as it improves name recognition, but not sustainable.
Sanders would really like Warren to be a little lower in the polls. He's going to need to get 33-35% to win this thing, and that means Warren (ideally) needs to be no more than 12-13%. With her on 18%, and potentially getting a portion of Klobuchar second choices there is the risk that he ends up third.
The cynic in me says that when they’re using hospital incinerators as makeshift crematoria, it’s primarily because they don’t want photos of long lines of graves showing the true scale of the problem.
My wife tells me that the dramatisation of Chernobyl was scarily accurate for the way that the authorities first deny there’s any problem, then seek to cover it up to save their own asses
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-51345186
What’s going to happen is they’re all taking lumps out of each other, and they’re going to be doing it until three or four months before the election at best.
I’m starting to bet on Trump, if only in small amounts at the moment.
You probably by now know my views on this? Trump's going to win big.
They wouldn't want it for the whole 4 years, but given they seem in permanent campaign mode what harm moving things forward?
I was about to say who the Democrats would blame if they do lose, but we know from Corbyn's crew the answer will be anyone but themselves, but for token and insincere soundbites.
If there are data integrity issues you need to pull it
“Anonymous left wing blogger, Steven Walker, 52, who lives in a multi-million pound house in Lower Tadfield”... is not really very anonymous
My point is that if we have to face up to EU red lines sooner or later, it is best to do it sooner.
LPF, fishing are negotiating cards that have more currency for the UK now than they will once the EU has got used to their absence. It will avoid the damage of no deal, eg car manufacturers closing their UK plants; farmers and fishermen going bankrupt; Northern Ireland becoming unmanageable. Politically it's best for the government to get the difficult decisions out the way early in the administration.
It doesn't mean they will, of course.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/gagging-clauses-advisers-to-grenfell-inquiry-barred-from-embarrassing-government-jdng3nm8h
This seems fishy.
F1: testing month. First race of the year is around the 22nd of March. But, as Mr. Sandpit noted yesterday, China might not have a race at all (I do wonder if other nations might be affected similarly).
I believe about 5% of what PSE and the Ministry of Health tells us these days. It's borne of the lies they spouted over BSE - CJD as well as Foot and Mouth. I get it that they don't want to cause panic but they're full of bullshit.
Some institutions remain stuck in 1950's paternalism.
No longer ago than last November, his lawyer tried to get him off libel damages by saying that nobody believed anything Skwawkbox published:
https://www.judiciary.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/Turley-v-Unite-2019-EWHC-3547-QB-Final-for-handdown.pdf
(Pages 43+44)
Admittedly, the judge was not terribly impressed by this argument.
Yet the ECJ and the EU Commissioner concerned mysteriously sided with the French to inflict an unnecessary and probably illegal ban on our beef to help the French beef industry, which was riddled with BSE. Funny, that.
(And yes, I voted remain - but the memory of the EU’s behaviour over BSE caused me to hesitate.)
1) Garrotting.
2) Five weeks’ holiday in Boston/Putney (according to how they voted in the EU ref)
3) Listening to Emma Dent Coad’s speeches for 27 minutes.
Radiohead is not.
(42 within YouGovs error margin)
Oh and Good Morning, everyone.
If you keep everyone on tenderhooks for days promising to deliver the definitive poll on the caucuses you have to then deliver, hard to see their reputation recovering from this now if they cannot even poll correctly
If they want to be "the definitive poll" then having zero tolerance for the poll being corrupted by dodgy practices is quite right. Better than fudging together a result they have no confidence in.
That poll has now been leaked anyway and if the leaked poll turns out to be close to the actual result the only 'dodgy practices' will look like pressure from the Democratic establishment not sampling error
"The kind of tenter we’re interested in is, according to the OED, “a wooden framework on which cloth is stretched after being milled, so that it may set or dry evenly and without shrinking”.
The OED also points out that tenters once stood in the open air in tenter-fields or grounds, and were a prominent feature in cloth-manufacturing districts. In other words, the original image is one of being very “tense”, in the sense of being stretched very tight...."
https://jeremybutterfield.wordpress.com/2018/01/24/eggcorns-on-tenterhooks-or-on-tenderhooks/
https://twitter.com/Cernovich/status/1223804822891032576?s=20
We don't know if the so-called leaked poll is genuine, it could just be complete fabricated nonsense.
Even if by pure coincidence it is genuine and is close to the actual result it could just show that the DMR poll was still the gold standard despite the flaws.
He said he had an 'empathy' with Scotland but that Scotland would need to follow the process, which of course includes joining the euro
https://twitter.com/LukeSmithF1/status/1223903018652983296
But initial murmurings from the EU side are that they see the trade discussions as part of the political Brexit process, rather than the much less political dimension usually given to trade talks.
A common question to be asked over the coming months is going to be 'So, what did Canada and Japan agree to in this area?"
I still see almost no substantive talks happening before the end of June, when the EU side will be expecting the UK to extend the talks deadline. It won't be until we make it clear there's no extending, that the talks will begin in earnest.
They'll try anything to make it exciting.
Nandy says she will replace the Order of the British Empire with an Order of British Excellence
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/starmer-shifts-left-in-attempt-to-crowd-long-bailey-out-of-labour-contest/ar-BBZyXiF?ocid=spartandhp