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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If you stayed up for the Iowa poll it isn’t going to be releas

SystemSystem Posts: 12,170
edited February 2020 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If you stayed up for the Iowa poll it isn’t going to be released

The poll isn't going to get released. Des Moines Register CNN cancels release of Iowa Poll over respondent concerns https://t.co/FdCUVys5Hm

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    First like...
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    The position of Iowa Gold Standard is hereby ceded to Emerson and ARG.

    KLOBUCHAR SURGE!
  • speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981
    edited February 2020
    It's very unusual to scrap a poll like that, I have to agree with Nate Cohn that this smells fishy:
    https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1223790666511192064
    I guess they didn't like the result, because it's easy to fix the error.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,620
    Surely they’ve spent tens of thousands on this poll, and now want to look like numpties by canning it? Surely easier to eliminate the possible problem (one surveyor’s responses) then reweight and crunch the numbers again?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,218
    speedy2 said:

    It's very unusual to scrap a poll like that, I have to agree with Nate Cohn that this smells fishy:
    https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1223790666511192064
    I guess they didn't like the result, because it's easy to fix the error.

    Agreed.

    The question is, though, how many interviewers are there?

    If there are 400 respondents, interviewed over four days, then it's 100/day. That might be as few as four people making calls
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,218
    Sandpit said:

    Surely they’ve spent tens of thousands on this poll, and now want to look like numpties by canning it? Surely easier to eliminate the possible problem (one surveyor’s responses) then reweight and crunch the numbers again?

    Polls are pretty cheap to commission. Yougov can be as little as £7-800 for a single question.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited February 2020
    Blatantly trying to cover-up the Yang surge.

    ;)
  • speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981
    edited February 2020
    rcs1000 said:

    speedy2 said:

    It's very unusual to scrap a poll like that, I have to agree with Nate Cohn that this smells fishy:
    https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1223790666511192064
    I guess they didn't like the result, because it's easy to fix the error.

    Agreed.

    The question is, though, how many interviewers are there?

    If there are 400 respondents, interviewed over four days, then it's 100/day. That might be as few as four people making calls
    Opinion polls with many questions always have that issue but it's easy to fix it, look what the Polling Director of Monmouth says how they fix such errors in his tweet thread:

    https://twitter.com/PollsterPatrick/status/1223791180376346625

    Anyway given the movement since the beggining of January it probably would have showed a Sanders lead of around 7, but that's just speculating based on the polling average.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,620
    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Surely they’ve spent tens of thousands on this poll, and now want to look like numpties by canning it? Surely easier to eliminate the possible problem (one surveyor’s responses) then reweight and crunch the numbers again?

    Polls are pretty cheap to commission. Yougov can be as little as £7-800 for a single question.
    Isn’t this one a telephone poll though, as opposed to online à la YouGov? Hence the human error that’s caused the Des Moines Register to bin it.

    I guess the Register will be using a different pollster in 2024!
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,620
    speedy2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    speedy2 said:

    It's very unusual to scrap a poll like that, I have to agree with Nate Cohn that this smells fishy:
    https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1223790666511192064
    I guess they didn't like the result, because it's easy to fix the error.

    Agreed.

    The question is, though, how many interviewers are there?

    If there are 400 respondents, interviewed over four days, then it's 100/day. That might be as few as four people making calls
    Opinion polls with many questions always have that issue but it's easy to fix it, look what the Polling Director of Monmouth says how they fix such errors in his tweet thread:

    ttps://twitter.com/PollsterPatrick/status/1223791180376346625

    Anyway given the movement since the beggining of January it probably would have showed a Sanders lead of around 7, but that's just speculating based on the polling average.
    Cue 101 conspiracy theories today about what the poll actually showed and why “the people” didn’t want it released.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    This decade is going to be even dumber than the last one

    https://twitter.com/PoliticsReid/status/1223807687047159808?s=19
  • ike56ike56 Posts: 1
    edited February 2020
    Long time reader (since before the 2005 GE), but first time poster. Make of it what you will, but the DMR poll has supposedly been leaked. May not be reliable numbers even if were not spiked, but the Biden cratering is worth noting to see how it pans out Monday night:

    https://mobile.twitter.com/Cernovich/status/1223804822891032576?s=19

    Sanders: 22%

    Warren: 18%

    Buttigieg: 16%

    Biden: 13%

    Too many undecideds, methinks, although if the also-rans add up 10-15% total, perhaps not. I’ve no dog in this contest or the GE, but I would find such a result for Biden quite comical, he really is running on nothing but his alleged “electability.”
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    edmundintokyo said:

    This decade is going to be even dumber than the last one

    https://twitter.com/PoliticsReid/status/1223807687047159808?s=19

    If it was a random chance as to which candidate wasn't read out, then surely it all evens out?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,620
    edmundintokyo said:

    This decade is going to be even dumber than the last one

    https://twitter.com/PoliticsReid/status/1223807687047159808?s=19

    Jeez, don’t people test stuff any more, nor monitor these things in the field?

    Reminds me of the programmer I spoke to last week who said he couldn’t replicate his software running so slowly as to be completely unusable - on his $4,000 dev workstation. Well of course it ran well on that machine - but the real world users have something several orders of magnitude less powerful!
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,218
    speedy2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    speedy2 said:

    It's very unusual to scrap a poll like that, I have to agree with Nate Cohn that this smells fishy:
    https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1223790666511192064
    I guess they didn't like the result, because it's easy to fix the error.

    Agreed.

    The question is, though, how many interviewers are there?

    If there are 400 respondents, interviewed over four days, then it's 100/day. That might be as few as four people making calls
    Opinion polls with many questions always have that issue but it's easy to fix it, look what the Polling Director of Monmouth says how they fix such errors in his tweet thread:

    https://twitter.com/PollsterPatrick/status/1223791180376346625

    Anyway given the movement since the beggining of January it probably would have showed a Sanders lead of around 7, but that's just speculating based on the polling average.
    I think I forecast a lead of 8 on the last thread. :smile:

    The big issue Sanders has is that the combined Sanders plus Warren has been stuck in the mid to high 30s. He needs the moderate vote to remain split between Biden, Buttigieg and Klobuchar, while (ideally) seeing Warren miss the 15% cut off in as many precincts as possible.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,218
    tlg86 said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    This decade is going to be even dumber than the last one

    https://twitter.com/PoliticsReid/status/1223807687047159808?s=19

    If it was a random chance as to which candidate wasn't read out, then surely it all evens out?
    Yes, you would think that
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,601
    Off topic:

    "Why snooker won't survive the decade

    Barney Ronay on the sports that have no future
    Sun 10 Jan 2010"

    https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2010/jan/10/future-of-snooker
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,934
    Andy_JS said:

    Off topic:

    "Why snooker won't survive the decade

    Barney Ronay on the sports that have no future
    Sun 10 Jan 2010"

    https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2010/jan/10/future-of-snooker

    Was he right? Did snooker survive the decade since 10/1/10? From the outside, it looks roughly the same: occasionally on telly; Ronnie still the only player most people have heard of; on life-support from the Far East.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,620
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Off topic:

    "Why snooker won't survive the decade

    Barney Ronay on the sports that have no future
    Sun 10 Jan 2010"

    https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2010/jan/10/future-of-snooker

    Was he right? Did snooker survive the decade since 10/1/10? From the outside, it looks roughly the same: occasionally on telly; Ronnie still the only player most people have heard of; on life-support from the Far East.
    Betting companies replacing the tobacco companies, huge interest from China (and very lucrative tournaments out there), old Ronnie himself still on the tour and still making very good money as a professional. Doesn’t sound like much changed.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    China effectively confirming the rumours that doctors have been cremating victims, potentially without adding them to the official list.

    https://twitter.com/globaltimesnews/status/1223774570043232256

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,620
    brokenwheel said:

    China effectively confirming the rumours that doctors have been cremating victims, potentially without adding them to the official list.

    ttps://twitter.com/globaltimesnews/status/1223774570043232256

    I am pretty sure that the scale of this outbreak is considerably worse than is being admitted to by the Chinese authorities. It’s probably hundreds of thousands of cases - and thousands of deaths - at this point.

    If it’s correct that patients exhibit no symptoms whist contagious for up to two weeks, the worst could be still to come.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Welcome @ike56!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609
    ike56 said:

    Long time reader (since before the 2005 GE), but first time poster. Make of it what you will, but the DMR poll has supposedly been leaked. May not be reliable numbers even if were not spiked, but the Biden cratering is worth noting to see how it pans out Monday night:

    https://mobile.twitter.com/Cernovich/status/1223804822891032576?s=19

    Sanders: 22%

    Warren: 18%

    Buttigieg: 16%

    Biden: 13%

    Too many undecideds, methinks, although if the also-rans add up 10-15% total, perhaps not. I’ve no dog in this contest or the GE, but I would find such a result for Biden quite comical, he really is running on nothing but his alleged “electability.”

    Handy for Biden then that the poll not be released (assuming always the numbers for this poll is what they found.). Can't imagine the upper levels of the Democratic Party are exactly delighted at the thought of having to go out to bat for Sanders either.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609
    Sandpit said:

    brokenwheel said:

    China effectively confirming the rumours that doctors have been cremating victims, potentially without adding them to the official list.

    ttps://twitter.com/globaltimesnews/status/1223774570043232256

    I am pretty sure that the scale of this outbreak is considerably worse than is being admitted to by the Chinese authorities. It’s probably hundreds of thousands of cases - and thousands of deaths - at this point.

    If it’s correct that patients exhibit no symptoms whist contagious for up to two weeks, the worst could be still to come.
    To be fair to the Chinese, with a virus that shows no symptoms for up to two weeks and seems to have such a range of severity of symptoms, during the flu season too, trying to get accurate numbers is very difficult. Many doctors until recently will not have seen any reason to consider the death of an eldery patient in generally poor health as anything unusual. What would be interesting is to see all "flu"/pneumonia death stats for the past three months, China-wide. An unusual spike in those might better tell you what is going on.
  • andypetukandypetuk Posts: 69
    Andy_JS said:

    Off topic:

    "Why snooker won't survive the decade

    Barney Ronay on the sports that have no future
    Sun 10 Jan 2010"

    https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2010/jan/10/future-of-snooker

    In many respects he was exactly wrong.

    The professional game is in rude health. There are tournaments nearly every week throughout the season, compared to just half a dozen 10 years ago.

    Apart from the major ones carried by the BBC, Eurosport covers them all and apparently gets good viewing figures throughout Europe. It’s also very popular on TV in China and the Far East, and the model is being replicated in India and the Americas.

    Prize money and sponsorship have increased substantially so that it’s possible for a larger number of players to make a living from the sport.

    The problem in the UK is the contraction of the amateur game with the closure of many snooker clubs. This has resulted in fewer young players coming through. China is producing good players, but they are not yet going on to win tournaments.

    It’s still the same group of largely UK players that are reaching the final stages of most tournaments. Good for viewers as it improves name recognition, but not sustainable.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,218
    ike56 said:

    Long time reader (since before the 2005 GE), but first time poster. Make of it what you will, but the DMR poll has supposedly been leaked. May not be reliable numbers even if were not spiked, but the Biden cratering is worth noting to see how it pans out Monday night:

    https://mobile.twitter.com/Cernovich/status/1223804822891032576?s=19

    Sanders: 22%

    Warren: 18%

    Buttigieg: 16%

    Biden: 13%

    Too many undecideds, methinks, although if the also-rans add up 10-15% total, perhaps not. I’ve no dog in this contest or the GE, but I would find such a result for Biden quite comical, he really is running on nothing but his alleged “electability.”

    Unless Klobuchar is on 12%, then that total looks too low.

    Sanders would really like Warren to be a little lower in the polls. He's going to need to get 33-35% to win this thing, and that means Warren (ideally) needs to be no more than 12-13%. With her on 18%, and potentially getting a portion of Klobuchar second choices there is the risk that he ends up third.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,620
    edited February 2020
    MarqueeMark said:

    Sandpit said:

    brokenwheel said:

    China effectively confirming the rumours that doctors have been cremating victims, potentially without adding them to the official list.

    ttps://twitter.com/globaltimesnews/status/1223774570043232256

    I am pretty sure that the scale of this outbreak is considerably worse than is being admitted to by the Chinese authorities. It’s probably hundreds of thousands of cases - and thousands of deaths - at this point.

    If it’s correct that patients exhibit no symptoms whist contagious for up to two weeks, the worst could be still to come.
    To be fair to the Chinese, with a virus that shows no symptoms for up to two weeks and seems to have such a range of severity of symptoms, during the flu season too, trying to get accurate numbers is very difficult. Many doctors until recently will not have seen any reason to consider the death of an eldery patient in generally poor health as anything unusual. What would be interesting is to see all "flu"/pneumonia death stats for the past three months, China-wide. An unusual spike in those might better tell you what is going on.
    All good points, and yes some wider statistics would be useful - not that we are going to see them out of China.

    The cynic in me says that when they’re using hospital incinerators as makeshift crematoria, it’s primarily because they don’t want photos of long lines of graves showing the true scale of the problem.

    My wife tells me that the dramatisation of Chernobyl was scarily accurate for the way that the authorities first deny there’s any problem, then seek to cover it up to save their own asses
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    What a mess the Democrats are in

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-51345186

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,620
    Mysticrose said:

    What a mess the Democrats are in

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-51345186

    I suggested a long time ago that the Democrats should have run their primary season last year - to have got their screaming at each other out of the way, and produced a candidate who would have had a year and a half as Leader of the Opposition, with their own party behind them and Trump in the crosshairs.

    What’s going to happen is they’re all taking lumps out of each other, and they’re going to be doing it until three or four months before the election at best.

    I’m starting to bet on Trump, if only in small amounts at the moment.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Sandpit said:

    Mysticrose said:

    What a mess the Democrats are in

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-51345186

    I suggested a long time ago that the Democrats should have run their primary season last year - to have got their screaming at each other out of the way, and produced a candidate who would have had a year and a half as Leader of the Opposition, with their own party behind them and Trump in the crosshairs.

    What’s going to happen is they’re all taking lumps out of each other, and they’re going to be doing it until three or four months before the election at best.

    I’m starting to bet on Trump, if only in small amounts at the moment.
    Yep. I quite agree.

    You probably by now know my views on this? Trump's going to win big.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,153
    I haven't the slightest idea how many candidates are still in the contest at this point.
    Sandpit said:

    Mysticrose said:

    What a mess the Democrats are in

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-51345186

    I suggested a long time ago that the Democrats should have run their primary season last year - to have got their screaming at each other out of the way, and produced a candidate who would have had a year and a half as Leader of the Opposition, with their own party behind them and Trump in the crosshairs.

    What’s going to happen is they’re all taking lumps out of each other, and they’re going to be doing it until three or four months before the election at best.

    I’m starting to bet on Trump, if only in small amounts at the moment.
    I'm surprised, even in as huge and varied a country as the USA, that they dont arrange it as you suggest so that the opposition have a chance to consolidate. They could call them the shadow president.

    They wouldn't want it for the whole 4 years, but given they seem in permanent campaign mode what harm moving things forward?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,153
    edited February 2020
    Sandpit said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Sandpit said:

    brokenwheel said:

    China effectively confirming the rumours that doctors have been cremating victims, potentially without adding them to the official list.

    ttps://twitter.com/globaltimesnews/status/1223774570043232256

    I am pretty sure that the scale of this outbreak is considerably worse than is being admitted to by the Chinese authorities. It’s probably hundreds of thousands of cases - and thousands of deaths - at this point.

    If it’s correct that patients exhibit no symptoms whist contagious for up to two weeks, the worst could be still to come.
    To be fair to the Chinese, with a virus that shows no symptoms for up to two weeks and seems to have such a range of severity of symptoms, during the flu season too, trying to get accurate numbers is very difficult. Many doctors until recently will not have seen any reason to consider the death of an eldery patient in generally poor health as anything unusual. What would be interesting is to see all "flu"/pneumonia death stats for the past three months, China-wide. An unusual spike in those might better tell you what is going on.
    All good points, and yes some wider statistics would be useful - not that we are going to see them out of China.

    The cynic in me says that when they’re using hospital incinerators as makeshift crematoria, it’s primarily because they don’t want photos of long lines of graves showing the true scale of the problem.

    My wife tells me that the dramatisation of Chernobyl was scarily accurate for the way that the authorities first deny there’s any problem, then seek to cover it up to save their own asses
    Tremendous piece of television. Compelling to watch because of the story and acting on its own, allowing the powerful impact from points like that to really hit home.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    edited February 2020
    ike56 said:

    Long time reader (since before the 2005 GE), but first time poster. Make of it what you will, but the DMR poll has supposedly been leaked. May not be reliable numbers even if were not spiked, but the Biden cratering is worth noting to see how it pans out Monday night:

    https://mobile.twitter.com/Cernovich/status/1223804822891032576?s=19

    Sanders: 22%

    Warren: 18%

    Buttigieg: 16%

    Biden: 13%

    Too many undecideds, methinks, although if the also-rans add up 10-15% total, perhaps not. I’ve no dog in this contest or the GE, but I would find such a result for Biden quite comical, he really is running on nothing but his alleged “electability.”

    Context for that tweet in case anyone is missing is: Cernovich is an alt-right propagandist and dodgy skin cream salesman.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,153
    Mysticrose said:

    Sandpit said:

    Mysticrose said:

    What a mess the Democrats are in

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-51345186

    I suggested a long time ago that the Democrats should have run their primary season last year - to have got their screaming at each other out of the way, and produced a candidate who would have had a year and a half as Leader of the Opposition, with their own party behind them and Trump in the crosshairs.

    What’s going to happen is they’re all taking lumps out of each other, and they’re going to be doing it until three or four months before the election at best.

    I’m starting to bet on Trump, if only in small amounts at the moment.
    Yep. I quite agree.

    You probably by now know my views on this? Trump's going to win big.
    Win huge would be more on brand for him.

    I was about to say who the Democrats would blame if they do lose, but we know from Corbyn's crew the answer will be anyone but themselves, but for token and insincere soundbites.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,153
    edmundintokyo said:

    ike56 said:

    Long time reader (since before the 2005 GE), but first time poster. Make of it what you will, but the DMR poll has supposedly been leaked. May not be reliable numbers even if were not spiked, but the Biden cratering is worth noting to see how it pans out Monday night:

    https://mobile.twitter.com/Cernovich/status/1223804822891032576?s=19

    Sanders: 22%

    Warren: 18%

    Buttigieg: 16%

    Biden: 13%

    Too many undecideds, methinks, although if the also-rans add up 10-15% total, perhaps not. I’ve no dog in this contest or the GE, but I would find such a result for Biden quite comical, he really is running on nothing but his alleged “electability.”

    Context for that tweet in case anyone is missing is: Cernovich is an alt-right propagandist and dodgy skin cream salesman.
    Better than being a dodgy propagandist and alternative skin cream salesman?
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    kle4 said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    ike56 said:

    Long time reader (since before the 2005 GE), but first time poster. Make of it what you will, but the DMR poll has supposedly been leaked. May not be reliable numbers even if were not spiked, but the Biden cratering is worth noting to see how it pans out Monday night:

    https://mobile.twitter.com/Cernovich/status/1223804822891032576?s=19

    Sanders: 22%

    Warren: 18%

    Buttigieg: 16%

    Biden: 13%

    Too many undecideds, methinks, although if the also-rans add up 10-15% total, perhaps not. I’ve no dog in this contest or the GE, but I would find such a result for Biden quite comical, he really is running on nothing but his alleged “electability.”

    Context for that tweet in case anyone is missing is: Cernovich is an alt-right propagandist and dodgy skin cream salesman.
    Better than being a dodgy propagandist and alternative skin cream salesman?
    Cernovich is both, that's the power of the gorilla mindset
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/1223834764664360960?s=19
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    speedy2 said:

    It's very unusual to scrap a poll like that, I have to agree with Nate Cohn that this smells fishy:
    https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1223790666511192064
    I guess they didn't like the result, because it's easy to fix the error.

    They said they couldn’t guarantee this was the only surveyor. They know there’s one complaint - but are there other dodgy results?

    If there are data integrity issues you need to pull it
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    My previous tweet needs to be read in context of earlier tweets I posted which showed polling suggests a masssssssive your surge in Iowa of unbelievable proportions.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424
    edmundintokyo said:

    kle4 said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    ike56 said:

    Long time reader (since before the 2005 GE), but first time poster. Make of it what you will, but the DMR poll has supposedly been leaked. May not be reliable numbers even if were not spiked, but the Biden cratering is worth noting to see how it pans out Monday night:

    https://mobile.twitter.com/Cernovich/status/1223804822891032576?s=19

    Sanders: 22%

    Warren: 18%

    Buttigieg: 16%

    Biden: 13%

    Too many undecideds, methinks, although if the also-rans add up 10-15% total, perhaps not. I’ve no dog in this contest or the GE, but I would find such a result for Biden quite comical, he really is running on nothing but his alleged “electability.”

    Context for that tweet in case anyone is missing is: Cernovich is an alt-right propagandist and dodgy skin cream salesman.
    Better than being a dodgy propagandist and alternative skin cream salesman?
    Cernovich is both, that's the power of the gorilla mindset
    What is it with dodgy medicos running fake news websites?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Welcome @ike56!

    But what is do significant about Eisenhower’s re-election campaign?
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,914
    rcs1000 said:

    ike56 said:

    Long time reader (since before the 2005 GE), but first time poster. Make of it what you will, but the DMR poll has supposedly been leaked. May not be reliable numbers even if were not spiked, but the Biden cratering is worth noting to see how it pans out Monday night:

    https://mobile.twitter.com/Cernovich/status/1223804822891032576?s=19

    Sanders: 22%

    Warren: 18%

    Buttigieg: 16%

    Biden: 13%

    Too many undecideds, methinks, although if the also-rans add up 10-15% total, perhaps not. I’ve no dog in this contest or the GE, but I would find such a result for Biden quite comical, he really is running on nothing but his alleged “electability.”

    Unless Klobuchar is on 12%, then that total looks too low.

    Sanders would really like Warren to be a little lower in the polls. He's going to need to get 33-35% to win this thing, and that means Warren (ideally) needs to be no more than 12-13%. With her on 18%, and potentially getting a portion of Klobuchar second choices there is the risk that he ends up third.
    If Biden is dropping and the rest are clustering then Bloomberg's strategy may work.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    ydoethur said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    kle4 said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    ike56 said:

    Long time reader (since before the 2005 GE), but first time poster. Make of it what you will, but the DMR poll has supposedly been leaked. May not be reliable numbers even if were not spiked, but the Biden cratering is worth noting to see how it pans out Monday night:

    https://mobile.twitter.com/Cernovich/status/1223804822891032576?s=19

    Sanders: 22%

    Warren: 18%

    Buttigieg: 16%

    Biden: 13%

    Too many undecideds, methinks, although if the also-rans add up 10-15% total, perhaps not. I’ve no dog in this contest or the GE, but I would find such a result for Biden quite comical, he really is running on nothing but his alleged “electability.”

    Context for that tweet in case anyone is missing is: Cernovich is an alt-right propagandist and dodgy skin cream salesman.
    Better than being a dodgy propagandist and alternative skin cream salesman?
    Cernovich is both, that's the power of the gorilla mindset
    What is it with dodgy medicos running fake news websites?
    That’s special, even for the Daily Mail

    “Anonymous left wing blogger, Steven Walker, 52, who lives in a multi-million pound house in Lower Tadfield”... is not really very anonymous
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424
    edited February 2020
    Charles said:

    ydoethur said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    kle4 said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    ike56 said:

    Long time reader (since before the 2005 GE), but first time poster. Make of it what you will, but the DMR poll has supposedly been leaked. May not be reliable numbers even if were not spiked, but the Biden cratering is worth noting to see how it pans out Monday night:

    https://mobile.twitter.com/Cernovich/status/1223804822891032576?s=19

    Sanders: 22%

    Warren: 18%

    Buttigieg: 16%

    Biden: 13%

    Too many undecideds, methinks, although if the also-rans add up 10-15% total, perhaps not. I’ve no dog in this contest or the GE, but I would find such a result for Biden quite comical, he really is running on nothing but his alleged “electability.”

    Context for that tweet in case anyone is missing is: Cernovich is an alt-right propagandist and dodgy skin cream salesman.
    Better than being a dodgy propagandist and alternative skin cream salesman?
    Cernovich is both, that's the power of the gorilla mindset
    What is it with dodgy medicos running fake news websites?
    That’s special, even for the Daily Mail

    “Anonymous left wing blogger, Steven Walker, 52, who lives in a multi-million pound house in Lower Tadfield”... is not really very anonymous
    Lower Tadfield? I didn’t see that. Is it a Good Omen or is he just one of the Four Horsemen?
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    Gabs3 said:

    FF43 said:

    I think there's a sizeable risk, the UK government decides the EU isn't offering enough to take on the obligations it also demanding. Time though is on the EU's side. Unless the UK is prepared to not to have an agreement with the EU on anything, ever, it will sooner or later have to meet EU demands. There will be a lot of interests pushing for this in the UK.

    And if you going to accept those demands eventually anyway, you might as well take them sooner.

    We will end up in a mess if the commentariat in the UK accepts the exact linking of benefits and obligations the EU proposes. The problem for the whole negotiation so far is that the media only discussed the internal politics of the UK side, accepting the EU position as written in stone.

    For example, it seems perfectly reasonable that mutual recognition of professional qualifications can be done without free movement of labour. The EU will insist they are linked, but if that is accepted as a necessary linkage, we will not get either. Equally, while a degree of level playing field provisions are usually required in FTAs, what the EU is demanding is unprecedented. If Remainer activists and reporters accept the EU's framing of LPF hoping the UK is bounced into all of it, we will end up with a much harder Brexit.
    Exactly so. The EU is offering relatively little for the 2020 deal in exchange for larger obligations. No Deal is entirely possible. And it's fine provided No Deal is sustainable for the UK. But if we ever want a deal with the EU later those red lines won't have gone away.

    My point is that if we have to face up to EU red lines sooner or later, it is best to do it sooner.

    LPF, fishing are negotiating cards that have more currency for the UK now than they will once the EU has got used to their absence. It will avoid the damage of no deal, eg car manufacturers closing their UK plants; farmers and fishermen going bankrupt; Northern Ireland becoming unmanageable. Politically it's best for the government to get the difficult decisions out the way early in the administration.

    It doesn't mean they will, of course.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,934
    Charles said:

    ydoethur said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    kle4 said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    ike56 said:

    Long time reader (since before the 2005 GE), but first time poster. Make of it what you will, but the DMR poll has supposedly been leaked. May not be reliable numbers even if were not spiked, but the Biden cratering is worth noting to see how it pans out Monday night:

    https://mobile.twitter.com/Cernovich/status/1223804822891032576?s=19

    Sanders: 22%

    Warren: 18%

    Buttigieg: 16%

    Biden: 13%

    Too many undecideds, methinks, although if the also-rans add up 10-15% total, perhaps not. I’ve no dog in this contest or the GE, but I would find such a result for Biden quite comical, he really is running on nothing but his alleged “electability.”

    Context for that tweet in case anyone is missing is: Cernovich is an alt-right propagandist and dodgy skin cream salesman.
    Better than being a dodgy propagandist and alternative skin cream salesman?
    Cernovich is both, that's the power of the gorilla mindset
    What is it with dodgy medicos running fake news websites?
    That’s special, even for the Daily Mail

    “Anonymous left wing blogger, Steven Walker, 52, who lives in a multi-million pound house in Lower Tadfield”... is not really very anonymous
    All very 2017 if you ask me and while the D-notice story was false, there was a kernel of truth as it did later turn out the government was adding gagging clauses to contracts.
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/gagging-clauses-advisers-to-grenfell-inquiry-barred-from-embarrassing-government-jdng3nm8h
  • Kevin_McCandlessKevin_McCandless Posts: 392
    To be fair, even if the poll had gone right, it still would've produced a series of semi-random numbers from whoever answered their phone last week.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,806
    Good morning, everyone.

    This seems fishy.

    F1: testing month. First race of the year is around the 22nd of March. But, as Mr. Sandpit noted yesterday, China might not have a race at all (I do wonder if other nations might be affected similarly).
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,729
    edited February 2020
    I guess everyone realised(unlike me, until I looked it up) that there is no such place as Lower Tadfield...
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    kle4 said:

    Sandpit said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Sandpit said:

    brokenwheel said:

    China effectively confirming the rumours that doctors have been cremating victims, potentially without adding them to the official list.

    ttps://twitter.com/globaltimesnews/status/1223774570043232256

    I am pretty sure that the scale of this outbreak is considerably worse than is being admitted to by the Chinese authorities. It’s probably hundreds of thousands of cases - and thousands of deaths - at this point.

    If it’s correct that patients exhibit no symptoms whist contagious for up to two weeks, the worst could be still to come.
    To be fair to the Chinese, with a virus that shows no symptoms for up to two weeks and seems to have such a range of severity of symptoms, during the flu season too, trying to get accurate numbers is very difficult. Many doctors until recently will not have seen any reason to consider the death of an eldery patient in generally poor health as anything unusual. What would be interesting is to see all "flu"/pneumonia death stats for the past three months, China-wide. An unusual spike in those might better tell you what is going on.
    All good points, and yes some wider statistics would be useful - not that we are going to see them out of China.

    The cynic in me says that when they’re using hospital incinerators as makeshift crematoria, it’s primarily because they don’t want photos of long lines of graves showing the true scale of the problem.

    My wife tells me that the dramatisation of Chernobyl was scarily accurate for the way that the authorities first deny there’s any problem, then seek to cover it up to save their own asses
    Tremendous piece of television. Compelling to watch because of the story and acting on its own, allowing the powerful impact from points like that to really hit home.
    Indeed.

    I believe about 5% of what PSE and the Ministry of Health tells us these days. It's borne of the lies they spouted over BSE - CJD as well as Foot and Mouth. I get it that they don't want to cause panic but they're full of bullshit.

    Some institutions remain stuck in 1950's paternalism.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424
    edited February 2020
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Charles said:

    ydoethur said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    kle4 said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    ike56 said:

    Long time reader (since before the 2005 GE), but first time poster. Make of it what you will, but the DMR poll has supposedly been leaked. May not be reliable numbers even if were not spiked, but the Biden cratering is worth noting to see how it pans out Monday night:

    https://mobile.twitter.com/Cernovich/status/1223804822891032576?s=19

    Sanders: 22%

    Warren: 18%

    Buttigieg: 16%

    Biden: 13%

    Too many undecideds, methinks, although if the also-rans add up 10-15% total, perhaps not. I’ve no dog in this contest or the GE, but I would find such a result for Biden quite comical, he really is running on nothing but his alleged “electability.”

    Context for that tweet in case anyone is missing is: Cernovich is an alt-right propagandist and dodgy skin cream salesman.
    Better than being a dodgy propagandist and alternative skin cream salesman?
    Cernovich is both, that's the power of the gorilla mindset
    What is it with dodgy medicos running fake news websites?
    That’s special, even for the Daily Mail

    “Anonymous left wing blogger, Steven Walker, 52, who lives in a multi-million pound house in Lower Tadfield”... is not really very anonymous
    All very 2017 if you ask me and while the D-notice story was false, there was a kernel of truth as it did later turn out the government was adding gagging clauses to contracts.
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/gagging-clauses-advisers-to-grenfell-inquiry-barred-from-embarrassing-government-jdng3nm8h
    Hmmm.

    No longer ago than last November, his lawyer tried to get him off libel damages by saying that nobody believed anything Skwawkbox published:

    https://www.judiciary.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/Turley-v-Unite-2019-EWHC-3547-QB-Final-for-handdown.pdf

    (Pages 43+44)

    Admittedly, the judge was not terribly impressed by this argument.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,491
    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Surely they’ve spent tens of thousands on this poll, and now want to look like numpties by canning it? Surely easier to eliminate the possible problem (one surveyor’s responses) then reweight and crunch the numbers again?

    Polls are pretty cheap to commission. Yougov can be as little as £7-800 for a single question.
    We should come up with a pb poll question and all chip in to commission it for the lolz.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424
    Mysticrose said:


    Indeed.

    I believe about 5% of what PSE and the Ministry of Health tells us these days. It's borne of the lies they spouted over BSE - CJD as well as Foot and Mouth. I get it that they don't want to cause panic but they're full of bullshit.

    Some institutions remain stuck in 1950's paternalism.

    The irony of that comment is that our politicians and civil servants were far more honest about BSE than any other group on the planet (over half of all confirmed cases of BSE, as of 2007, were in France, and that was still less than 3% of the probable total of French cases) and as a result they caused a great deal of suffering for no obvious gain, given unlike France and Belgium we had put in place measures to contain and eradicate the pathogen and also steps to prevent any possible contaminated material entering the food chain.

    Yet the ECJ and the EU Commissioner concerned mysteriously sided with the French to inflict an unnecessary and probably illegal ban on our beef to help the French beef industry, which was riddled with BSE. Funny, that.

    (And yes, I voted remain - but the memory of the EU’s behaviour over BSE caused me to hesitate.)
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,729
    Casino_Royale said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Surely they’ve spent tens of thousands on this poll, and now want to look like numpties by canning it? Surely easier to eliminate the possible problem (one surveyor’s responses) then reweight and crunch the numbers again?

    Polls are pretty cheap to commission. Yougov can be as little as £7-800 for a single question.
    We should come up with a pb poll question and all chip in to commission it for the lolz.
    the difficulty would be agreeing on the question....
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424
    squareroot2 said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Surely they’ve spent tens of thousands on this poll, and now want to look like numpties by canning it? Surely easier to eliminate the possible problem (one surveyor’s responses) then reweight and crunch the numbers again?

    Polls are pretty cheap to commission. Yougov can be as little as £7-800 for a single question.
    We should come up with a pb poll question and all chip in to commission it for the lolz.
    the difficulty would be agreeing on the question....
    What should be the penalty for eating pineapple on pizza?

    1) Garrotting.

    2) Five weeks’ holiday in Boston/Putney (according to how they voted in the EU ref)

    3) Listening to Emma Dent Coad’s speeches for 27 minutes.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,359
    FF43 said:

    Gabs3 said:

    FF43 said:

    I think there's a sizeable risk, the UK government decides the EU isn't offering enough to take on the obligations it also demanding. Time though is on the EU's side. Unless the UK is prepared to not to have an agreement with the EU on anything, ever, it will sooner or later have to meet EU demands. There will be a lot of interests pushing for this in the UK.

    And if you going to accept those demands eventually anyway, you might as well take them sooner.

    We will end up in a mess if the commentariat in the UK accepts the exact linking of benefits and obligations the EU proposes. The problem for the whole negotiation so far is that the media only discussed the internal politics of the UK side, accepting the EU position as written in stone.

    For example, it seems perfectly reasonable that mutual recognition of professional qualifications can be done without free movement of labour. The EU will insist they are linked, but if that is accepted as a necessary linkage, we will not get either. Equally, while a degree of level playing field provisions are usually required in FTAs, what the EU is demanding is unprecedented. If Remainer activists and reporters accept the EU's framing of LPF hoping the UK is bounced into all of it, we will end up with a much harder Brexit.
    Exactly so. The EU is offering relatively little for the 2020 deal in exchange for larger obligations. No Deal is entirely possible. And it's fine provided No Deal is sustainable for the UK. But if we ever want a deal with the EU later those red lines won't have gone away.

    My point is that if we have to face up to EU red lines sooner or later, it is best to do it sooner.

    LPF, fishing are negotiating cards that have more currency for the UK now than they will once the EU has got used to their absence. It will avoid the damage of no deal, eg car manufacturers closing their UK plants; farmers and fishermen going bankrupt; Northern Ireland becoming unmanageable. Politically it's best for the government to get the difficult decisions out the way early in the administration.

    It doesn't mean they will, of course.
    Fishermen will be sold down the river, will be interesting to hear the wailing and gnashing of teeth from the stupid Scottish fishermen who supported the Tories. Also how Gove spins more lies to cover his bollox about how it was sacroscant etc.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    ydoethur said:

    squareroot2 said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Surely they’ve spent tens of thousands on this poll, and now want to look like numpties by canning it? Surely easier to eliminate the possible problem (one surveyor’s responses) then reweight and crunch the numbers again?

    Polls are pretty cheap to commission. Yougov can be as little as £7-800 for a single question.
    We should come up with a pb poll question and all chip in to commission it for the lolz.
    the difficulty would be agreeing on the question....
    What should be the penalty for eating pineapple on pizza?

    1) Garrotting.

    2) Five weeks’ holiday in Boston/Putney (according to how they voted in the EU ref)

    3) Listening to Emma Dent Coad’s speeches for 27 minutes.
    Pineapple on pizza is good.
    Radiohead is not.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,934
    squareroot2 said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Surely they’ve spent tens of thousands on this poll, and now want to look like numpties by canning it? Surely easier to eliminate the possible problem (one surveyor’s responses) then reweight and crunch the numbers again?

    Polls are pretty cheap to commission. Yougov can be as little as £7-800 for a single question.
    We should come up with a pb poll question and all chip in to commission it for the lolz.
    the difficulty would be agreeing on the question....
    Haven't we already done this?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited February 2020
    Were you up for Iowa?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    squareroot2 said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Surely they’ve spent tens of thousands on this poll, and now want to look like numpties by canning it? Surely easier to eliminate the possible problem (one surveyor’s responses) then reweight and crunch the numbers again?

    Polls are pretty cheap to commission. Yougov can be as little as £7-800 for a single question.
    We should come up with a pb poll question and all chip in to commission it for the lolz.
    the difficulty would be agreeing on the question....
    The answer will be 43.

    (42 within YouGovs error margin)
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,806
    F1: that's very mildly annoying. A day after I put a £1 free bet on Albon to win in Australia his odds have gone from 67 yo 81. Boo and also hiss.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,466
    edited February 2020
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    This seems fishy.

    F1: testing month. First race of the year is around the 22nd of March. But, as Mr. Sandpit noted yesterday, China might not have a race at all (I do wonder if other nations might be affected similarly).

    I have sources and might be able to find out for you.

    Oh and Good Morning, everyone.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449
    Casino_Royale said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Surely they’ve spent tens of thousands on this poll, and now want to look like numpties by canning it? Surely easier to eliminate the possible problem (one surveyor’s responses) then reweight and crunch the numbers again?

    Polls are pretty cheap to commission. Yougov can be as little as £7-800 for a single question.
    We should come up with a pb poll question and all chip in to commission it for the lolz.
    A poll on whether SeanT and Byronic are the same person?
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449
    edited February 2020
    ..
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424
    not_on_fire said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Surely they’ve spent tens of thousands on this poll, and now want to look like numpties by canning it? Surely easier to eliminate the possible problem (one surveyor’s responses) then reweight and crunch the numbers again?

    Polls are pretty cheap to commission. Yougov can be as little as £7-800 for a single question.
    We should come up with a pb poll question and all chip in to commission it for the lolz.
    A poll on whether SeanT and Byronic are the same person?
    Bit pointless asking that when we already know the answer.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449
    ydoethur said:

    not_on_fire said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Surely they’ve spent tens of thousands on this poll, and now want to look like numpties by canning it? Surely easier to eliminate the possible problem (one surveyor’s responses) then reweight and crunch the numbers again?

    Polls are pretty cheap to commission. Yougov can be as little as £7-800 for a single question.
    We should come up with a pb poll question and all chip in to commission it for the lolz.
    A poll on whether SeanT and Byronic are the same person?
    Bit pointless asking that when we already know the answer.
    Or “Does PB have enough threads on AV?”
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,806
    King Cole, thanks. I don't have any bets especially pertaining to that (a small covering one on Hamilton getting under a certain number of wins is somewhat related).
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424
    not_on_fire said:

    ydoethur said:

    not_on_fire said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Surely they’ve spent tens of thousands on this poll, and now want to look like numpties by canning it? Surely easier to eliminate the possible problem (one surveyor’s responses) then reweight and crunch the numbers again?

    Polls are pretty cheap to commission. Yougov can be as little as £7-800 for a single question.
    We should come up with a pb poll question and all chip in to commission it for the lolz.
    A poll on whether SeanT and Byronic are the same person?
    Bit pointless asking that when we already know the answer.
    Or “Does PB have enough threads on AV?”
    Again...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,153
    Alistair said:

    https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/1223834764664360960?s=19

    Buttegieg toast?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,148
    edited February 2020
    Complete farce from the Des Moines Register poll, it has gone from being the gold standard Iowa caucuses poll to a joke overnight.

    If you keep everyone on tenderhooks for days promising to deliver the definitive poll on the caucuses you have to then deliver, hard to see their reputation recovering from this now if they cannot even poll correctly
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,148
    edited February 2020
    ike56 said:

    Long time reader (since before the 2005 GE), but first time poster. Make of it what you will, but the DMR poll has supposedly been leaked. May not be reliable numbers even if were not spiked, but the Biden cratering is worth noting to see how it pans out Monday night:

    https://mobile.twitter.com/Cernovich/status/1223804822891032576?s=19

    Sanders: 22%

    Warren: 18%

    Buttigieg: 16%

    Biden: 13%

    Too many undecideds, methinks, although if the also-rans add up 10-15% total, perhaps not. I’ve no dog in this contest or the GE, but I would find such a result for Biden quite comical, he really is running on nothing but his alleged “electability.”

    If true, Sanders ahead and Warren 2nd, that would be an utter disaster for the Democratic establishment so maybe a lot of pressure was put on the Des Moines Register to stop the poll being released
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609
    Philip_Thompson said:

    ydoethur said:

    squareroot2 said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Surely they’ve spent tens of thousands on this poll, and now want to look like numpties by canning it? Surely easier to eliminate the possible problem (one surveyor’s responses) then reweight and crunch the numbers again?

    Polls are pretty cheap to commission. Yougov can be as little as £7-800 for a single question.
    We should come up with a pb poll question and all chip in to commission it for the lolz.
    the difficulty would be agreeing on the question....
    What should be the penalty for eating pineapple on pizza?

    1) Garrotting.

    2) Five weeks’ holiday in Boston/Putney (according to how they voted in the EU ref)

    3) Listening to Emma Dent Coad’s speeches for 27 minutes.
    Pineapple on pizza is good.
    Radiohead is not.
    Has André Rieu covered Radiohead yet? Just for the horror.....
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    HYUFD said:

    ike56 said:

    Long time reader (since before the 2005 GE), but first time poster. Make of it what you will, but the DMR poll has supposedly been leaked. May not be reliable numbers even if were not spiked, but the Biden cratering is worth noting to see how it pans out Monday night:

    https://mobile.twitter.com/Cernovich/status/1223804822891032576?s=19

    Sanders: 22%

    Warren: 18%

    Buttigieg: 16%

    Biden: 13%

    Too many undecideds, methinks, although if the also-rans add up 10-15% total, perhaps not. I’ve no dog in this contest or the GE, but I would find such a result for Biden quite comical, he really is running on nothing but his alleged “electability.”

    If true, Sanders ahead and Warren 2nd, that would be an utter disaster for the Democratic establishment so maybe a lot of pressure was put on the Des Moines Register to stop the poll being released
    You honestly believe that conspiracy theory they you’re pushing?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609
    Kevin_McCandless said:

    To be fair, even if the poll had gone right, it still would've produced a series of semi-random numbers from whoever answered their phone last week.

    A polling heretic! Burn him!!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,148
    matt said:

    HYUFD said:

    ike56 said:

    Long time reader (since before the 2005 GE), but first time poster. Make of it what you will, but the DMR poll has supposedly been leaked. May not be reliable numbers even if were not spiked, but the Biden cratering is worth noting to see how it pans out Monday night:

    https://mobile.twitter.com/Cernovich/status/1223804822891032576?s=19

    Sanders: 22%

    Warren: 18%

    Buttigieg: 16%

    Biden: 13%

    Too many undecideds, methinks, although if the also-rans add up 10-15% total, perhaps not. I’ve no dog in this contest or the GE, but I would find such a result for Biden quite comical, he really is running on nothing but his alleged “electability.”

    If true, Sanders ahead and Warren 2nd, that would be an utter disaster for the Democratic establishment so maybe a lot of pressure was put on the Des Moines Register to stop the poll being released
    You honestly believe that conspiracy theory they you’re pushing?
    Well we will see tomorrow night but if Sanders wins and Warren is runner up big questions will need to be asked, as Nate Silver has pointed out the Des Moines Register poll's supposed sampling error could easily have been corrected
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited February 2020
    HYUFD said:

    Complete farce from the Des Moines Register poll, it has gone from being the gold standard Iowa caucuses poll to a joke overnight.

    If you keep everyone on tenderhooks for days promising to deliver the definitive poll on the caucuses you have to then deliver, hard to see their reputation recovering from this now if they cannot even poll correctly

    Disagreed.

    If they want to be "the definitive poll" then having zero tolerance for the poll being corrupted by dodgy practices is quite right. Better than fudging together a result they have no confidence in.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,148
    Varadkar says a Canada style deal with the UK is possible but tariff free trade requires a level playing field on labour standards, state aid etc and a mechanism will be needed to adjudicate disputes
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    HYUFD said:

    Varadkar says a Canada style deal with the UK is possible but tariff free trade requires a level playing field on labour standards, state aid etc and a mechanism will be needed to adjudicate disputes

    A Canada-style LPF and dispute mechanism is quite fine.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609
    edited February 2020
    matt said:

    HYUFD said:

    ike56 said:

    Long time reader (since before the 2005 GE), but first time poster. Make of it what you will, but the DMR poll has supposedly been leaked. May not be reliable numbers even if were not spiked, but the Biden cratering is worth noting to see how it pans out Monday night:

    https://mobile.twitter.com/Cernovich/status/1223804822891032576?s=19

    Sanders: 22%

    Warren: 18%

    Buttigieg: 16%

    Biden: 13%

    Too many undecideds, methinks, although if the also-rans add up 10-15% total, perhaps not. I’ve no dog in this contest or the GE, but I would find such a result for Biden quite comical, he really is running on nothing but his alleged “electability.”

    If true, Sanders ahead and Warren 2nd, that would be an utter disaster for the Democratic establishment so maybe a lot of pressure was put on the Des Moines Register to stop the poll being released
    You honestly believe that conspiracy theory they you’re pushing?
    Less conspiracy theory, more applied cynicism....
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    HYUFD said:

    Complete farce from the Des Moines Register poll, it has gone from being the gold standard Iowa caucuses poll to a joke overnight.

    If you keep everyone on tenderhooks for days promising to deliver the definitive poll on the caucuses you have to then deliver, hard to see their reputation recovering from this now if they cannot even poll correctly

    Human error happens sometimes, and better to pull the poll than publish bad numbers. I hope people aren't as unforgiving to you the first time you make a mistake at work.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,148
    edited February 2020
    Philip_Thompson said:

    HYUFD said:

    Complete farce from the Des Moines Register poll, it has gone from being the gold standard Iowa caucuses poll to a joke overnight.

    If you keep everyone on tenderhooks for days promising to deliver the definitive poll on the caucuses you have to then deliver, hard to see their reputation recovering from this now if they cannot even poll correctly

    Disagreed.

    If they want to be "the definitive poll" then having zero tolerance for the poll being corrupted by dodgy practices is quite right. Better than fudging together a result they have no confidence in.
    For weeks they have been keeping the political community on tenderhooks promising to deliver their 'gold standard' poll, they completely failed to do so.

    That poll has now been leaked anyway and if the leaked poll turns out to be close to the actual result the only 'dodgy practices' will look like pressure from the Democratic establishment not sampling error
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,148
    edited February 2020
    Quincel said:

    HYUFD said:

    Complete farce from the Des Moines Register poll, it has gone from being the gold standard Iowa caucuses poll to a joke overnight.

    If you keep everyone on tenderhooks for days promising to deliver the definitive poll on the caucuses you have to then deliver, hard to see their reputation recovering from this now if they cannot even poll correctly

    Human error happens sometimes, and better to pull the poll than publish bad numbers. I hope people aren't as unforgiving to you the first time you make a mistake at work.
    There is a difference between a minor mistake and completely failing to deliver your main project you have been loudly advertising for weeks
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,148
    Varadkar confirms no deal with Sinn Fein from Fine Gael as they are soft on crime and pro high tax at which I point Marr says will be difficult to form a new Irish Government for Britain to negotiate with over the next few months
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609
    Philip_Thompson said:

    HYUFD said:

    Varadkar says a Canada style deal with the UK is possible but tariff free trade requires a level playing field on labour standards, state aid etc and a mechanism will be needed to adjudicate disputes

    A Canada-style LPF and dispute mechanism is quite fine.
    An independent arbitration mechanism is standard. Wanting one that uses the EU's own judicial body is not.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,148
    edited February 2020
    Raab on Marr says if it does a trade deal with the EU it expects to be treated in the same manner as South Korea, Canada and Japan were and not with full alignment with EU rules required
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    HYUFD said:


    That poll has now been leaked anyway and if the leaked poll turns out to be close to the actual result the only 'dodgy practices' will look like pressure from the Democratic establishment not sampling error

    Some (generally unreliable) people have posted something they claim is a leak of the poll, I don't think we have evidence that it's genuine at this point?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609
    HYUFD said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    HYUFD said:

    Complete farce from the Des Moines Register poll, it has gone from being the gold standard Iowa caucuses poll to a joke overnight.

    If you keep everyone on tenderhooks for days promising to deliver the definitive poll on the caucuses you have to then deliver, hard to see their reputation recovering from this now if they cannot even poll correctly

    Disagreed.

    If they want to be "the definitive poll" then having zero tolerance for the poll being corrupted by dodgy practices is quite right. Better than fudging together a result they have no confidence in.
    For weeks they have been keeping the political community on tenderhooks promising to deliver their 'gold standard' poll, they completely failed to do so.

    That poll has now been leaked anyway and if the leaked poll turns out to be close to the actual result the only 'dodgy practices' will look like pressure from the Democratic establishment not sampling error
    Tenterhooks.

    "The kind of tenter we’re interested in is, according to the OED, “a wooden framework on which cloth is stretched after being milled, so that it may set or dry evenly and without shrinking”.

    The OED also points out that tenters once stood in the open air in tenter-fields or grounds, and were a prominent feature in cloth-manufacturing districts. In other words, the original image is one of being very “tense”, in the sense of being stretched very tight...."

    https://jeremybutterfield.wordpress.com/2018/01/24/eggcorns-on-tenterhooks-or-on-tenderhooks/
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,148
    edited February 2020
    edmundintokyo said:

    HYUFD said:


    That poll has now been leaked anyway and if the leaked poll turns out to be close to the actual result the only 'dodgy practices' will look like pressure from the Democratic establishment not sampling error

    Some (generally unreliable) people have posted something they claim is a leak of the poll, I don't think we have evidence that it's genuine at this point?
    The leak was by a journalist with a blue tick and does not look too dissimilar to the last DMR poll just with Sanders and Warren expanding the gap over Buttigieg and Biden

    https://twitter.com/Cernovich/status/1223804822891032576?s=20
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    HYUFD said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    HYUFD said:

    Complete farce from the Des Moines Register poll, it has gone from being the gold standard Iowa caucuses poll to a joke overnight.

    If you keep everyone on tenderhooks for days promising to deliver the definitive poll on the caucuses you have to then deliver, hard to see their reputation recovering from this now if they cannot even poll correctly

    Disagreed.

    If they want to be "the definitive poll" then having zero tolerance for the poll being corrupted by dodgy practices is quite right. Better than fudging together a result they have no confidence in.
    For a whole week they have been keeping the political community on tenderhooks promising to deliver their 'gold standard poll, they failed to do so.

    That poll has now been leaked anyway and if the leaked poll turns out to be close to the actual result the only 'dodgy practices' will look like pressure from the Democratic establishment not sampling error
    Failing to do so is not a problem. Better that than a dodgy poll.

    We don't know if the so-called leaked poll is genuine, it could just be complete fabricated nonsense.

    Even if by pure coincidence it is genuine and is close to the actual result it could just show that the DMR poll was still the gold standard despite the flaws.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,148
    edited February 2020
    Philip_Thompson said:

    HYUFD said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    HYUFD said:

    Complete farce from the Des Moines Register poll, it has gone from being the gold standard Iowa caucuses poll to a joke overnight.

    If you keep everyone on tenderhooks for days promising to deliver the definitive poll on the caucuses you have to then deliver, hard to see their reputation recovering from this now if they cannot even poll correctly

    Disagreed.

    If they want to be "the definitive poll" then having zero tolerance for the poll being corrupted by dodgy practices is quite right. Better than fudging together a result they have no confidence in.
    For a whole week they have been keeping the political community on tenderhooks promising to deliver their 'gold standard poll, they failed to do so.

    That poll has now been leaked anyway and if the leaked poll turns out to be close to the actual result the only 'dodgy practices' will look like pressure from the Democratic establishment not sampling error
    Failing to do so is not a problem. Better that than a dodgy poll.

    We don't know if the so-called leaked poll is genuine, it could just be complete fabricated nonsense.

    Even if by pure coincidence it is genuine and is close to the actual result it could just show that the DMR poll was still the gold standard despite the flaws.
    In which case it would also look to have damaged its reputation by caving in to Democratic establishment pressure rather than release its poll
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,148
    edited February 2020
    Raab says Tusk was 'irresponsible' to say an Independent Scotland could join the EU and the SNP must honour and accept the result of the 2014 referendum and focus on domestic policy
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    HYUFD said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    HYUFD said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    HYUFD said:

    Complete farce from the Des Moines Register poll, it has gone from being the gold standard Iowa caucuses poll to a joke overnight.

    If you keep everyone on tenderhooks for days promising to deliver the definitive poll on the caucuses you have to then deliver, hard to see their reputation recovering from this now if they cannot even poll correctly

    Disagreed.

    If they want to be "the definitive poll" then having zero tolerance for the poll being corrupted by dodgy practices is quite right. Better than fudging together a result they have no confidence in.
    For a whole week they have been keeping the political community on tenderhooks promising to deliver their 'gold standard poll, they failed to do so.

    That poll has now been leaked anyway and if the leaked poll turns out to be close to the actual result the only 'dodgy practices' will look like pressure from the Democratic establishment not sampling error
    Failing to do so is not a problem. Better that than a dodgy poll.

    We don't know if the so-called leaked poll is genuine, it could just be complete fabricated nonsense.

    Even if by pure coincidence it is genuine and is close to the actual result it could just show that the DMR poll was still the gold standard despite the flaws.
    In which case it would also look to have damaged its reputation by caving in to Democratic establishment pressure rather than release their poll
    Not really. There was Buttigieg camp pressure not establishment pressure.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,148
    edited February 2020
    Philip_Thompson said:

    HYUFD said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    HYUFD said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    HYUFD said:

    Complete farce from the Des Moines Register poll, it has gone from being the gold standard Iowa caucuses poll to a joke overnight.

    If you keep everyone on tenderhooks for days promising to deliver the definitive poll on the caucuses you have to then deliver, hard to see their reputation recovering from this now if they cannot even poll correctly

    Disagreed.

    If they want to be "the definitive poll" then having zero tolerance for the poll being corrupted by dodgy practices is quite right. Better than fudging together a result they have no confidence in.
    For a whole week they have been keeping the political community on tenderhooks promising to deliver their 'gold standard poll, they failed to do so.

    That poll has now been leaked anyway and if the leaked poll turns out to be close to the actual result the only 'dodgy practices' will look like pressure from the Democratic establishment not sampling error
    Failing to do so is not a problem. Better that than a dodgy poll.

    We don't know if the so-called leaked poll is genuine, it could just be complete fabricated nonsense.

    Even if by pure coincidence it is genuine and is close to the actual result it could just show that the DMR poll was still the gold standard despite the flaws.
    In which case it would also look to have damaged its reputation by caving in to Democratic establishment pressure rather than release their poll
    Not really. There was Buttigieg camp pressure not establishment pressure.
    Buttigieg is Democratic establishment and if Biden was 4th his camp May also have been pressuring too to stop release
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,105
    HYUFD said:

    Raab says Tusk was 'irresponsible' to say an Independent Scotland could join the EU

    I am no defender of Tusk but he did not say Scotland could join the EU

    He said he had an 'empathy' with Scotland but that Scotland would need to follow the process, which of course includes joining the euro
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,806
    Formula E race called off due to Coronavirus:
    https://twitter.com/LukeSmithF1/status/1223903018652983296
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,620
    HYUFD said:

    Raab on Marr says if it does a trade deal with the EU it expects to be treated in the same manner as South Korea, Canada and Japan were and not with full alignment with EU rules required

    Which is completely fair.

    But initial murmurings from the EU side are that they see the trade discussions as part of the political Brexit process, rather than the much less political dimension usually given to trade talks.

    A common question to be asked over the coming months is going to be 'So, what did Canada and Japan agree to in this area?"

    I still see almost no substantive talks happening before the end of June, when the EU side will be expecting the UK to extend the talks deadline. It won't be until we make it clear there's no extending, that the talks will begin in earnest.
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,905
    HYUFD said:

    Quincel said:

    HYUFD said:

    Complete farce from the Des Moines Register poll, it has gone from being the gold standard Iowa caucuses poll to a joke overnight.

    If you keep everyone on tenderhooks for days promising to deliver the definitive poll on the caucuses you have to then deliver, hard to see their reputation recovering from this now if they cannot even poll correctly

    Human error happens sometimes, and better to pull the poll than publish bad numbers. I hope people aren't as unforgiving to you the first time you make a mistake at work.
    There is a difference between a minor mistake and completely failing to deliver your main project you have been loudly advertising for weeks
    Does Mr Johnson know this, HY? Have you told him?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,148
    ClippP said:

    HYUFD said:

    Quincel said:

    HYUFD said:

    Complete farce from the Des Moines Register poll, it has gone from being the gold standard Iowa caucuses poll to a joke overnight.

    If you keep everyone on tenderhooks for days promising to deliver the definitive poll on the caucuses you have to then deliver, hard to see their reputation recovering from this now if they cannot even poll correctly

    Human error happens sometimes, and better to pull the poll than publish bad numbers. I hope people aren't as unforgiving to you the first time you make a mistake at work.
    There is a difference between a minor mistake and completely failing to deliver your main project you have been loudly advertising for weeks
    Does Mr Johnson know this, HY? Have you told him?
    Boris has just delivered Brexit exactly as he said he would if he won the election
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,037
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Formula E race called off due to Coronavirus:
    https://twitter.com/LukeSmithF1/status/1223903018652983296

    Motor racing where the drivers are all off their heads on ecstasy.

    They'll try anything to make it exciting.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,148
    Starmer commits to keep Labour's plan to raise tax on those earning over £80,000 a year.

    Nandy says she will replace the Order of the British Empire with an Order of British Excellence
    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/starmer-shifts-left-in-attempt-to-crowd-long-bailey-out-of-labour-contest/ar-BBZyXiF?ocid=spartandhp
This discussion has been closed.