politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Irish General Election 2020 : Predictions & Review, Part 2

With the Irish general election taking place a week on Saturday the pressure is mounting on Leo Varadkar & the Fine Gael members.
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https://extra.ie/2020/01/26/news/politics/fianna-fail-lead-election-poll
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1222871376111054848?s=20
Boylesports, Ladbrokes and Paddy Power have lots of markets up.
(Of course a Yougov poll had Yes ahead in 2014 too anyway)
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/jan/30/huawei-ruling-will-cost-us-500m-says-bt
As I've said on here ad nauseam, the 2020 US election is going to be an absolute sh!t-show of fake news, fake adverts, fake photos, fake videos and total untruths on all sides - with Facebook and Google in the middle of it all, profiting massively from all the fakery and polarisation.
Whoever wins, there's going to be a huge call to regulate or break up those two companies in particular.
https://twitter.com/lizziedearden/status/1222850856346845189
Cast half arsed aspersions on the pollster - check
No one wants more disruptive uncertainty from the SNP, that's the Tories' job - ?
Once in a generation promise - ?
Send in the troops - ?
Just setting up some more options for the HYUFD rapid rebuttal team.
Secondly, to what extent is this particular use of data legal in the UK ?
And, FWIW...
https://twitter.com/MShapland/status/1222851578132148224
I'm not an expert in this aspect of UK electoral law, but would have thought that targeting of people who have specifically opted in was fair game.
(Also see comment on previous thread about Boris speech being on Facebook only. There's a reason for this, and again it's all about the data collection.)
I don't think Alastair Stewart was being racist in the slightest btw.
https://twitter.com/jamiedmaxwell/status/1222876159358197760?s=20
Let's see what the new Lab leader scores.
Edit: apols to Green Machine for hijacking, it's a rough old game on PB.
https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1222876741246603264?s=20
https://twitter.com/arthistorynews/status/1222880096270409733?s=20
Linking devices together to get a complete view of a customer is one of those, in the USA you can use third party data to do that, in europe you can't.
So including Don't Knows only 42% back No, 17% points less than the 55% who voted No in 2014, etc.
Edit: sorry, FEWER
FWIW, I tend to think GDPR is a sledgehammer-to-crack-a-nut kind of approach; I'm not convinced that the marginal protection it affords justifies the enormous compliance cost and infrastructure.
http://blogs.harvard.edu/doc/2020/01/29/the-deeper-issue/
Which links to an embryonic, but excellent idea:
http://customercommons.org/home/tools/terms/
That’s comparing apples with oranges.
In 2014 about 38% of the total Scottish electorate voted for Independence, so it is a 5% increase since 2014.
PS: Who knew that that nice gentle Alistair Stewart was such an active and edgy Twitter warrior? Not me.
Wondering about Mary Nightingale now.
https://twitter.com/jimllpaintit/status/1217155678554533889?s=21
A third of the world’s population now have a Facebook account used in the past month, although their stock did drop 7% yesterday on the back of their lowest ever growth figures - maybe a small glimpse of light at the end of the long tunnel, but I doubt it.
He said officials would work together to "get this right" after the UK's decision to give the Chinese firm a limited role in building its system.
Mr Pompeo added that intelligence-sharing arrangements between the two countries would continue.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-51313481
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-51310516
Seems rather low paid for London to me....
The average London salary is £700 a month ie £36 400
https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/economy-business/work-incomes/constituency-data-wages/
How many pbers have adjusted apps' access to location data on their phones?
And religiously log out of Twitter, FB and the rest before surfing the web?
And do their shopping in 93 different trips to stop supermarkets aggregating data on what they buy (and never mind credit cards and loyalty cards)?
And refused to vote for Boris after CCHQ was caught faking videos?
Quebec's 2nd referendum was 15 years after the first
It’s an art gallery, of course they use fancy-pants titles - and they just got better publicity and reach for their vacancy than a load of paid adverts would have done. Marketing 101.
PG Tips could be sold by Unilever as cuppa goes out of fashion
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51309566
A possible solution which I already posted below:
http://customercommons.org/home/tools/terms/
A liberty minded government would fund, and/or legislate to produce, something along these lines.
My coat...
(It’s always happy hour somewhere, and right now it’s where I am!)
In fact, the reason that wasn't the question was precisely because it's well known that Yes/No type questions skew the results. Hence the Leave/Remain dichotomy.
ISTR a discussion back in 2014 about SNP supposedly trying to gerrymander the result by framing the Scottish Independence referendum question in the most beneficial way (to them, obviously). My memory claims that having "Yes" as a vote for independence was supposed to help their campaign feel more positive, although it may be playing tricks on me.
There’s a substantial body of evidence that suggests there’s an inbuilt bias towards the option seen as positive.
So who are the non-voters?
Needs rephrasing to avoid ending on a preposition.
Sturgeon and Johnson can co-lead the One campaign.
https://www.motorsportweek.com/news/id/25976
Glad you like it.
It's always good to cover stuff that is very useful to the website.
"UPS announced Wednesday investments in electric trucks, the testing of self-driving vans and the construction of a new “super hub” as part of its efforts to capitalize on the growth of e-commerce.
UPS, which sees electric vehicles as a key part of its sustainability efforts, will purchase 10,000 electric vehicles from U.K.-based startup Arrival and take a minority stake in the company. The financial details were not disclosed."
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/29/ups-is-eyeing-a-driverless-and-electric-future-for-its-fleet.html?__source=twitter|main
FPT re the Essex-Suffolk border, I once went out with a girl from Nayland.
Ignoring the snark, this doesn't sound like a group ready to play nice just yet.
https://twitter.com/Feorlean/status/1222806123935346692?s=20