politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Which way will the Brexit trackers go after Friday?
Comments
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Probably not annoying for Leicester fans.Anabobazina said:
It’s good to see Leicester knocked out. Their being good is one of the most weirdly annoying things about The Modern Football, along with whining, cosseted non-Mancunian United fans and 4pm Sunday kickoffs.Foxy said:0 -
Quite, so simply run it on the popular vote, a binary choice. I find it remarkable that you defend the existing system, which can give a victory to the nationwide loser. Bonkers.RobD said:
They would have still won more seats had it been PR or any such system. Of course the size of the victory in an election to a single office is meaningless - you can't apportion the presidency by vote.Anabobazina said:
Yes, but those are first past the post races.RobD said:
Because there's only one position to fill? The democrats did very well in the congressional elections on the same day, which translated into more seats.Anabobazina said:One ancillary absurdity about the Electoral College: the scores mean nothing.
Obama’s blowout in 2008 is not tangibly better than a 271-269 victory.
At least with First Past The Post you get more MPs for a landslide.
The Electoral College assigns an analogue score to a binary contest.0 -
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Trudeau won in Canada but lost the popular voteAnabobazina said:
Quite, so simply run it on the popular vote, a binary choice. I find it remarkable that you defend the existing system, which can give a victory to the nationwide loser. Bonkers.RobD said:
They would have still won more seats had it been PR or any such system. Of course the size of the victory in an election to a single office is meaningless - you can't apportion the presidency by vote.Anabobazina said:
Yes, but those are first past the post races.RobD said:
Because there's only one position to fill? The democrats did very well in the congressional elections on the same day, which translated into more seats.Anabobazina said:One ancillary absurdity about the Electoral College: the scores mean nothing.
Obama’s blowout in 2008 is not tangibly better than a 271-269 victory.
At least with First Past The Post you get more MPs for a landslide.
The Electoral College assigns an analogue score to a binary contest.0 -
Er, even MORE voters did NOT vote for Trump! Yet, he "won". Lunacy!HYUFD said:
Trump won fair and square under the rules of the game and most US voters did not vote for Hillary anywayAnabobazina said:
Your point is?HYUFD said:
California and Texas are about half the size of France by themselves, France is a much more centralised state than the United States of America, the clue is in the title.Anabobazina said:
Less conrottenborough said:https://twitter.com/HarryYorke1/status/1222286034496622598
Is it possible that during the massive contact rate in a seat like Broxtowe, the doorstep response was:
a) I will never vote for Corbyn - IRA, anti-semite, loony left, not a PM, fuck off etc etc
b) Lab are planning to spend money like there is no tomorrow
Spot on. The Electoral College makes zero sense in a federal election, they should bin it.Sunil_Prasannan said:
It's a seriously crap system, because millions more Americans voted for Hillary than for Trump.NorthernPowerhouse said:
They do have fifty different elections though. She didn’t win the race that she was competing in.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Americans were electing a President for the whole USA. The States don't elect 50 different Presidents, right?NorthernPowerhouse said:
She got the fastest 100 metre sprint in the 400 metre mixed hurdles.Sunil_Prasannan said:
She won!MarqueeMark said:
The only pain greater than losing once to Donald Trump is......williamglenn said:
Hillary 48%
Trump 46%
The equivalent would be having Macron lose the French presidential race - despite commanding the votes of most French citizens - because a random combination of Brittany, Normandy and Alsace happened to vote by a tiny margin for his opponent.
Plus of course French presidents always get over 50% as only 2 candidates are allowed to go to the second round, Hillary only got 48%, 52% of Americans still did not vote for her even if a majority did not vote for Trump either0 -
I guess I'm confused with the absurdity you described then. It would still occur under a popular vote scenario.Anabobazina said:
Quite, so simply run it on the popular vote, a binary choice. I find it remarkable that you defend the existing system, which can give a victory to the nationwide loser. Bonkers.RobD said:
They would have still won more seats had it been PR or any such system. Of course the size of the victory in an election to a single office is meaningless - you can't apportion the presidency by vote.Anabobazina said:
Yes, but those are first past the post races.RobD said:
Because there's only one position to fill? The democrats did very well in the congressional elections on the same day, which translated into more seats.Anabobazina said:One ancillary absurdity about the Electoral College: the scores mean nothing.
Obama’s blowout in 2008 is not tangibly better than a 271-269 victory.
At least with First Past The Post you get more MPs for a landslide.
The Electoral College assigns an analogue score to a binary contest.
Also, where have I defended the current system?0 -
Fine you will absolutely guarantee we never rejoin then, no more than 20% of British voters are EU FederalistsGabs3 said:Us Rejoiners need to make much more of an effort to be full throatedly pro-EU, pro-immigration, pro-Euro and pro-Schengen. A compromise position satisfies nobody.
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TheGreenMachine said:
Probably not annoying for Leicester fans.Anabobazina said:
It’s good to see Leicester knocked out. Their being good is one of the most weirdly annoying things about The Modern Football, along with whining, cosseted non-Mancunian United fans and 4pm Sunday kickoffs.Foxy said:
Almost certainly not, but I’m not one, so am exercising my right to annoyance.TheGreenMachine said:
Probably not annoying for Leicester fans.Anabobazina said:
It’s good to see Leicester knocked out. Their being good is one of the most weirdly annoying things about The Modern Football, along with whining, cosseted non-Mancunian United fans and 4pm Sunday kickoffs.Foxy said:1 -
After the chaos of the last few years, I don't think most voters will want to reopen the issue even if they think it was a mistake.OllyT said:
A 52-48 vote to leave is only going to settle the issue if Brexit is an unqualified success and best prediction we get out of most Brexiteers is that it might not be too bad. You just want to believe the issue is now over and will just go away. It won't.MarqueeMark said:
It's gone. Give it up.CatMan said:
Errr none. The increased economic growth will more than pay for it. Plus the benefit of all those extra EU Doctors and Nurses who will be able to come over and work in them.MarqueeMark said:
And which hospitals will you close to pay for the rejoining membership fees?CatMan said:Maybe I'm talking bollocks (which is very possible), but unless Brexit turns out to be a massive success (and I'm not sure what that actually would be), rejoining the EU is something that is going to be a part of the political discord for a long time, especially if the support for it amongst the under 45s remains. Also the Scottish and Northern Ireland aspect of it all isn't going to go away.
I'm biased, but I think the harder the Brexit, the quicker we rejoin.
Or we could just borrow the money, that doesn't seem to be a problem at the moment
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Not lunacy, the US is based on states rights, hence it is called the United STATES of AmericaSunil_Prasannan said:
Er, even MORE voters did NOT vote for Trump! Yet, he "won". Lunacy!HYUFD said:
Trump won fair and square under the rules of the game and most US voters did not vote for Hillary anywayAnabobazina said:
Your point is?HYUFD said:
California and Texas are about half the size of France by themselves, France is a much more centralised state than the United States of America, the clue is in the title.Anabobazina said:
Less conrottenborough said:https://twitter.com/HarryYorke1/status/1222286034496622598
Is it possible that during the massive contact rate in a seat like Broxtowe, the doorstep response was:
a) I will never vote for Corbyn - IRA, anti-semite, loony left, not a PM, fuck off etc etc
b) Lab are planning to spend money like there is no tomorrow
Spot on. The Electoral College makes zero sense in a federal election, they should bin it.Sunil_Prasannan said:
It's a seriously crap system, because millions more Americans voted for Hillary than for Trump.NorthernPowerhouse said:
They do have fifty different elections though. She didn’t win the race that she was competing in.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Americans were electing a President for the whole USA. The States don't elect 50 different Presidents, right?NorthernPowerhouse said:
She got the fastest 100 metre sprint in the 400 metre mixed hurdles.Sunil_Prasannan said:
She won!MarqueeMark said:
The only pain greater than losing once to Donald Trump is......williamglenn said:
Hillary 48%
Trump 46%
The equivalent would be having Macron lose the French presidential race - despite commanding the votes of most French citizens - because a random combination of Brittany, Normandy and Alsace happened to vote by a tiny margin for his opponent.
Plus of course French presidents always get over 50% as only 2 candidates are allowed to go to the second round, Hillary only got 48%, 52% of Americans still did not vote for her even if a majority did not vote for Trump either0 -
And Trump only got 46%, 54% of Americans still did not vote for him even if a majority did not vote for Hillary either.HYUFD said:
California and Texas are about half the size of France by themselves, France is a much more centralised state than the United States of America, the clue is in the title.Anabobazina said:
Less conrottenborough said:https://twitter.com/HarryYorke1/status/1222286034496622598
Is it possible that during the massive contact rate in a seat like Broxtowe, the doorstep response was:
a) I will never vote for Corbyn - IRA, anti-semite, loony left, not a PM, fuck off etc etc
b) Lab are planning to spend money like there is no tomorrow
Spot on. The Electoral College makes zero sense in a federal election, they should bin it.Sunil_Prasannan said:
It's a seriously crap system, because millions more Americans voted for Hillary than for Trump.NorthernPowerhouse said:
They do have fifty different elections though. She didn’t win the race that she was competing in.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Americans were electing a President for the whole USA. The States don't elect 50 different Presidents, right?NorthernPowerhouse said:
She got the fastest 100 metre sprint in the 400 metre mixed hurdles.Sunil_Prasannan said:
She won!MarqueeMark said:
The only pain greater than losing once to Donald Trump is......williamglenn said:
Hillary 48%
Trump 46%
The equivalent would be having Macron lose the French presidential race - despite commanding the votes of most French citizens - because a random combination of Brittany, Normandy and Alsace happened to vote by a tiny margin for his opponent.
Plus of course French presidents always get over 50% as only 2 candidates are allowed to go to the second round, Hillary only got 48%, 52% of Americans still did not vote for her even if a majority did not vote for Trump either0 -
Think HYUFD's not being too obtuse here. The French state is structured in a very unitary way (as a result of centuries of brutality against its regions and their cultures, particularly by the "enlightened" during the Revolutionary period) whereas the USA is constitutionally federal. The fact that the French presidential electoral system works in a unitary kinda way is therefore utterly unsurprising, and the analogy to the USA is imperfect - the French example is certainly instructive, but in terms of what the USA should do, only to a limited extent.Anabobazina said:
Your point is?HYUFD said:
California and Texas are about half the size of France by themselves, France is a much more centralised state than the United States of America, the clue is in the title.
Plus of course French presidents always get over 50% as only 2 candidates are allowed to go to the second round, Hillary only got 48%, 52% of Americans still did not vote for her even if a majority did not vote for Trump either
Moreover, one of the common complaints about the US system is you can win with under 50% of the vote (which is frequently cited as one of the strengths of the French system). If there were a US election with three or four serious candidates splitting the vote, the electoral college currently provides a (flawed) way of ensuring that the person who ends up President has sufficiently broad support from across the country to claim a mandate. If the winner were to be decided based on popular vote alone and a plurality was considered sufficient to win, that constitutional safeguard breaks down and we could quite plausibly see a winner on, say, 35% of the vote but whose support doesn't run any broader than that. Multiway splits have happened before, so there's no reason to think they'll never happen again, particularly under a more "proportional" system which may change voting behaviour. If the USA does change system, there would be a very strong case to incorporate something like Alternative Vote, or French-style run-offs. (If you hold that view, then as HYUFD notes, one shouldn't view the 48%-46% result in 2016 as a sign that "Clinton should have won" but rather that "it should have gone to some kind of second stage" - it would be disingenuous to claim that the renewal of interest in changing the system, particularly among political progressives, is unrelated to the fact that Trump beat Clinton, so HYUFD's point that a reformed system wouldn't necessarily have granted victory to Clinton either seems fair enough to me).0 -
But he is leading a minority government...HYUFD said:
The Canadian Tories won more votes than Trudeau's Liberals last November but Trudeau is still PM and the Liberals still won most seatsSunil_Prasannan said:
Gore won more votes than Dubya in 2000....Malmesbury said:
I am quite sure that if, at the next presidential election Trump gets the popular vote and loses in the electoral college, that the Democratic Party will re-discover the perfection of the Electoral College. Odes will be composed in its praise, solemn columns written in Salon....Sunil_Prasannan said:
It's a seriously crap system, because millions more Americans voted for Hillary than for Trump.NorthernPowerhouse said:
They do have fifty different elections though. She didn’t win the race that she was competing in.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Americans were electing a President for the whole USA. The States don't elect 50 different Presidents, right?NorthernPowerhouse said:
She got the fastest 100 metre sprint in the 400 metre mixed hurdles.Sunil_Prasannan said:
She won!MarqueeMark said:
The only pain greater than losing once to Donald Trump is......williamglenn said:
Hillary 48%
Trump 46%0 -
Because its not a nationwide ballot.Anabobazina said:
Quite, so simply run it on the popular vote, a binary choice. I find it remarkable that you defend the existing system, which can give a victory to the nationwide loser. Bonkers.RobD said:
They would have still won more seats had it been PR or any such system. Of course the size of the victory in an election to a single office is meaningless - you can't apportion the presidency by vote.Anabobazina said:
Yes, but those are first past the post races.RobD said:
Because there's only one position to fill? The democrats did very well in the congressional elections on the same day, which translated into more seats.Anabobazina said:One ancillary absurdity about the Electoral College: the scores mean nothing.
Obama’s blowout in 2008 is not tangibly better than a 271-269 victory.
At least with First Past The Post you get more MPs for a landslide.
The Electoral College assigns an analogue score to a binary contest.
I don't like the result but the system is working as intended.0 -
Under PR Trudeau would still be PM as the Tories were only just ahead (well short of a majority) and the NDP/Greens would support the Liberals.HYUFD said:
The Canadian Tories won more votes than Trudeau's Liberals last November but Trudeau is still PM and the Liberals still won most seatsSunil_Prasannan said:
Gore won more votes than Dubya in 2000....Malmesbury said:
I am quite sure that if, at the next presidential election Trump gets the popular vote and loses in the electoral college, that the Democratic Party will re-discover the perfection of the Electoral College. Odes will be composed in its praise, solemn columns written in Salon....Sunil_Prasannan said:
It's a seriously crap system, because millions more Americans voted for Hillary than for Trump.NorthernPowerhouse said:
They do have fifty different elections though. She didn’t win the race that she was competing in.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Americans were electing a President for the whole USA. The States don't elect 50 different Presidents, right?NorthernPowerhouse said:
She got the fastest 100 metre sprint in the 400 metre mixed hurdles.Sunil_Prasannan said:
She won!MarqueeMark said:
The only pain greater than losing once to Donald Trump is......williamglenn said:
Hillary 48%
Trump 46%0 -
Closeness? The Welsh Devolution Referendum in 1997 was 50.3%-49.7%...OllyT said:
I am not saying anything about the legitimacy of either result.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Are you saying the Welsh Devo result was more legitimate than the Brexit vote?OllyT said:
I do not understand the point you are trying to make.Sunil_Prasannan said:
https://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/10/18/the-nearest-run-thing/OllyT said:
There was never a really strong anti-devolution camp in Wales. At the time a lot of people didn't think there was any need for it abut most were not that bothered either way.Sunil_Prasannan said:
The Welsh Devolution Referendum in 1997 was 50.3%-49.7%...OllyT said:
A 52-48 vote to leave is only going to settle the issue if Brexit is an unqualified success and best prediction we get out of most Brexiteers is that it might not be too bad. You just want to believe the issue is now over and will just go away. It won't.MarqueeMark said:
It's gone. Give it up.CatMan said:
Errr none. The increased economic growth will more than pay for it. Plus the benefit of all those extra EU Doctors and Nurses who will be able to come over and work in them.MarqueeMark said:
And which hospitals will you close to pay for the rejoining membership fees?CatMan said:Maybe I'm talking bollocks (which is very possible), but unless Brexit turns out to be a massive success (and I'm not sure what that actually would be), rejoining the EU is something that is going to be a part of the political discord for a long time, especially if the support for it amongst the under 45s remains. Also the Scottish and Northern Ireland aspect of it all isn't going to go away.
I'm biased, but I think the harder the Brexit, the quicker we rejoin.
Or we could just borrow the money, that doesn't seem to be a problem at the moment
Brexit on the other hand..
Are you trying to say that because the Welsh Devolution result was close but there has been no attempt to reverse it that therefore there will be no attempt to reverse Brexit?
I am arguing that the closeness of the Brexit vote and the fact that anti-Brexit feeling is not diminishing suggests too me that demand for another vote will build far more quickly than it did after the far more decisive result to join in 1975.
My point was made in response to MarqueeMark's quaint notion that it's over now and we can all forget about it.0 -
And Gary Johnson the Libertarian candidate won 3.28% in the US in 2016, most of his vote would have gone to Trump in a second round enabling him to overtake Hillary in the popular votedodrade said:
Under PR Trudeau would still be PM as the Tories were only just ahead (well short of a majority) and the NDP/Greens would support the Liberals.HYUFD said:
The Canadian Tories won more votes than Trudeau's Liberals last November but Trudeau is still PM and the Liberals still won most seatsSunil_Prasannan said:
Gore won more votes than Dubya in 2000....Malmesbury said:
I am quite sure that if, at the next presidential election Trump gets the popular vote and loses in the electoral college, that the Democratic Party will re-discover the perfection of the Electoral College. Odes will be composed in its praise, solemn columns written in Salon....Sunil_Prasannan said:
It's a seriously crap system, because millions more Americans voted for Hillary than for Trump.NorthernPowerhouse said:
They do have fifty different elections though. She didn’t win the race that she was competing in.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Americans were electing a President for the whole USA. The States don't elect 50 different Presidents, right?NorthernPowerhouse said:
She got the fastest 100 metre sprint in the 400 metre mixed hurdles.Sunil_Prasannan said:
She won!MarqueeMark said:
The only pain greater than losing once to Donald Trump is......williamglenn said:
Hillary 48%
Trump 46%0 -
The US constitution cannot assume the presidential vote will be binary. Hasn't always been in the past. May not always be so in the future. Changing the electoral system may well make it less binary as it reduces the concept of a "wasted vote" and will also affect ballot access (presently some minority candidates appear on the ballot in certain states but not others, which tends to reduce their voteshare). If the electoral college is going to be replaced, a fair bit of thought needs to go into how to replace it, particularly with regards to pluralities.Anabobazina said:
Quite, so simply run it on the popular vote, a binary choice. I find it remarkable that you defend the existing system, which can give a victory to the nationwide loser. Bonkers.RobD said:
They would have still won more seats had it been PR or any such system. Of course the size of the victory in an election to a single office is meaningless - you can't apportion the presidency by vote.Anabobazina said:
Yes, but those are first past the post races.RobD said:
Because there's only one position to fill? The democrats did very well in the congressional elections on the same day, which translated into more seats.Anabobazina said:One ancillary absurdity about the Electoral College: the scores mean nothing.
Obama’s blowout in 2008 is not tangibly better than a 271-269 victory.
At least with First Past The Post you get more MPs for a landslide.
The Electoral College assigns an analogue score to a binary contest.0 -
Its not a federal nationwide vote though. It is 50 statewide votes.Anabobazina said:
Had they done so you would still defend the system.HYUFD said:
Trump won fair and square under the rules of the game and most US voters did not vote for Hillary anywayAnabobazina said:
Your point is?HYUFD said:
California and Texas are about half the size of France by themselves, France is a much more centralised state than the United States of America, the clue is in the title.Anabobazina said:
Less conrottenborough said:https://twitter.com/HarryYorke1/status/1222286034496622598
Is it possible that during the massive contact rate in a seat like Broxtowe, the doorstep response was:
a) I will never vote for Corbyn - IRA, anti-semite, loony left, not a PM, fuck off etc etc
b) Lab are planning to spend money like there is no tomorrow
Spot on. The Electoral College makes zero sense in a federal election, they should bin it.Sunil_Prasannan said:
It's a seriously crap system, because millions more Americans voted for Hillary than for Trump.NorthernPowerhouse said:
They do have fifty different elections though. She didn’t win the race that she was competing in.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Americans were electing a President for the whole USA. The States don't elect 50 different Presidents, right?NorthernPowerhouse said:
She got the fastest 100 metre sprint in the 400 metre mixed hurdles.Sunil_Prasannan said:
She won!MarqueeMark said:
The only pain greater than losing once to Donald Trump is......williamglenn said:
Hillary 48%
Trump 46%
The equivalent would be having Macron lose the French presidential race - despite commanding the votes of most French citizens - because a random combination of Brittany, Normandy and Alsace happened to vote by a tiny margin for his opponent.
Plus of course French presidents always get over 50% as only 2 candidates are allowed to go to the second round, Hillary only got 48%, 52% of Americans still did not vote for her even if a majority did not vote for Trump either
Face it: it’s an absurdity. If Bill beats Ben 51-48 he can still ‘lose’ under the Electoral College.
Utterly ridiculous in a federal nationwide vote.2 -
But the President represents the WHOLE of the USA. A bit like an MP representing the constituents in his/her seat.Philip_Thompson said:
Its not a federal nationwide vote though. It is 50 statewide votes.Anabobazina said:
Had they done so you would still defend the system.HYUFD said:
Trump won fair and square under the rules of the game and most US voters did not vote for Hillary anywayAnabobazina said:
Your point is?HYUFD said:
California and Texas are about half the size of France by themselves, France is a much more centralised state than the United States of America, the clue is in the title.Anabobazina said:
Less conrottenborough said:https://twitter.com/HarryYorke1/status/1222286034496622598
Is it possible that during the massive contact rate in a seat like Broxtowe, the doorstep response was:
a) I will never vote for Corbyn - IRA, anti-semite, loony left, not a PM, fuck off etc etc
b) Lab are planning to spend money like there is no tomorrowSunil_Prasannan said:
It's a seriously crap system, because millions more Americans voted for Hillary than for Trump.NorthernPowerhouse said:
They do have fifty different elections though. She didn’t win the race that she was competing in.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Americans were electing a President for the whole USA. The States don't elect 50 different Presidents, right?NorthernPowerhouse said:
She got the fastest 100 metre sprint in the 400 metre mixed hurdles.Sunil_Prasannan said:
She won!MarqueeMark said:
The only pain greater than losing once to Donald Trump is......williamglenn said:
Hillary 48%
Trump 46%
Plus of course French presidents always get over 50% as only 2 candidates are allowed to go to the second round, Hillary only got 48%, 52% of Americans still did not vote for her even if a majority did not vote for Trump either
Face it: it’s an absurdity. If Bill beats Ben 51-48 he can still ‘lose’ under the Electoral College.
Utterly ridiculous in a federal nationwide vote.
The electoral college is a bit like an MP being voted in by separate contests in (for argument's sake) Broxtowe western bit, Broxtowe northern bit, Broxtowe eastern bit and Broxtowe southern bit.
Like I said above, it's a seriously crap system.0 -
How do you know?HYUFD said:
And Gary Johnson the Libertarian candidate won 3.28% in the US in 2016, most of his vote would have gone to Trump in a second round enabling him to overtake Hillary in the popular votedodrade said:
Under PR Trudeau would still be PM as the Tories were only just ahead (well short of a majority) and the NDP/Greens would support the Liberals.HYUFD said:
The Canadian Tories won more votes than Trudeau's Liberals last November but Trudeau is still PM and the Liberals still won most seatsSunil_Prasannan said:
Gore won more votes than Dubya in 2000....Malmesbury said:
I am quite sure that if, at the next presidential election Trump gets the popular vote and loses in the electoral college, that the Democratic Party will re-discover the perfection of the Electoral College. Odes will be composed in its praise, solemn columns written in Salon....Sunil_Prasannan said:
It's a seriously crap system, because millions more Americans voted for Hillary than for Trump.NorthernPowerhouse said:
They do have fifty different elections though. She didn’t win the race that she was competing in.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Americans were electing a President for the whole USA. The States don't elect 50 different Presidents, right?NorthernPowerhouse said:
She got the fastest 100 metre sprint in the 400 metre mixed hurdles.Sunil_Prasannan said:
She won!MarqueeMark said:
The only pain greater than losing once to Donald Trump is......williamglenn said:
Hillary 48%
Trump 46%0 -
There is only ONE President, not FIFTY!HYUFD said:
Not lunacy, the US is based on states rights, hence it is called the United STATES of AmericaSunil_Prasannan said:
Er, even MORE voters did NOT vote for Trump! Yet, he "won". Lunacy!HYUFD said:
Trump won fair and square under the rules of the game and most US voters did not vote for Hillary anywayAnabobazina said:
Your point is?HYUFD said:
California and Texas are about half the size of France by themselves, France is a much more centralised state than the United States of America, the clue is in the title.Anabobazina said:
Less conrottenborough said:https://twitter.com/HarryYorke1/status/1222286034496622598
Is it possible that during the massive contact rate in a seat like Broxtowe, the doorstep response was:
a) I will never vote for Corbyn - IRA, anti-semite, loony left, not a PM, fuck off etc etc
b) Lab are planning to spend money like there is no tomorrow
Spot on. The Electoral College makes zero sense in a federal election, they should bin it.Sunil_Prasannan said:
It's a seriously crap system, because millions more Americans voted for Hillary than for Trump.NorthernPowerhouse said:
They do have fifty different elections though. She didn’t win the race that she was competing in.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Americans were electing a President for the whole USA. The States don't elect 50 different Presidents, right?NorthernPowerhouse said:
She got the fastest 100 metre sprint in the 400 metre mixed hurdles.Sunil_Prasannan said:
She won!MarqueeMark said:
The only pain greater than losing once to Donald Trump is......williamglenn said:
Hillary 48%
Trump 46%
The equivalent would be having Macron lose the French presidential race - despite commanding the votes of most French citizens - because a random combination of Brittany, Normandy and Alsace happened to vote by a tiny margin for his opponent.
Plus of course French presidents always get over 50% as only 2 candidates are allowed to go to the second round, Hillary only got 48%, 52% of Americans still did not vote for her even if a majority did not vote for Trump either0 -
No the Electoral College is working as intended. To be elected President you need to represent many states not just be wildly popular in a few states while objectionable in most.Sunil_Prasannan said:
But the President represents the WHOLE of the USA. A bit like an MP representing the constituents in his/her seat.
The electoral college is a bit like an MP being voted in by separate contests in (for argument's sake) Broxtowe western bit, Broxtowe northern bit, Broxtowe eastern bit and Broxtowe southern bit.
Like I said above, it's a seriously crap system.
It is a bit like our system valuing Broxtowe as a swIng seat and not just worrying about stacking up votes in Islington.1 -
A national President should be decided by a national vote.Philip_Thompson said:
No the Electoral College is working as intended. To be elected President you need to represent many states not just be wildly popular in a few states while objectionable in most.Sunil_Prasannan said:
But the President represents the WHOLE of the USA. A bit like an MP representing the constituents in his/her seat.
The electoral college is a bit like an MP being voted in by separate contests in (for argument's sake) Broxtowe western bit, Broxtowe northern bit, Broxtowe eastern bit and Broxtowe southern bit.
Like I said above, it's a seriously crap system.
It is a bit like our system valuing Broxtowe as a swIng seat and not just worrying about stacking up votes in Islington.
Hillary 65,853,514 votes
Trump 62,984,828 votes
Note that opinion polls for the US as a whole go by head-to-head percentages.1 -
Why would a libertarian vote for Trump?HYUFD said:
And Gary Johnson the Libertarian candidate won 3.28% in the US in 2016, most of his vote would have gone to Trump in a second round enabling him to overtake Hillary in the popular votedodrade said:
Under PR Trudeau would still be PM as the Tories were only just ahead (well short of a majority) and the NDP/Greens would support the Liberals.HYUFD said:
The Canadian Tories won more votes than Trudeau's Liberals last November but Trudeau is still PM and the Liberals still won most seatsSunil_Prasannan said:
Gore won more votes than Dubya in 2000....Malmesbury said:
I am quite sure that if, at the next presidential election Trump gets the popular vote and loses in the electoral college, that the Democratic Party will re-discover the perfection of the Electoral College. Odes will be composed in its praise, solemn columns written in Salon....Sunil_Prasannan said:
It's a seriously crap system, because millions more Americans voted for Hillary than for Trump.NorthernPowerhouse said:
They do have fifty different elections though. She didn’t win the race that she was competing in.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Americans were electing a President for the whole USA. The States don't elect 50 different Presidents, right?NorthernPowerhouse said:
She got the fastest 100 metre sprint in the 400 metre mixed hurdles.Sunil_Prasannan said:
She won!MarqueeMark said:
The only pain greater than losing once to Donald Trump is......williamglenn said:
Hillary 48%
Trump 46%0 -
There were several states in 2016 where the non-Rep/Dem party candidate may have shaken up the result:viewcode said:
Why would a libertarian vote for Trump?HYUFD said:
And Gary Johnson the Libertarian candidate won 3.28% in the US in 2016, most of his vote would have gone to Trump in a second round enabling him to overtake Hillary in the popular votedodrade said:
Under PR Trudeau would still be PM as the Tories were only just ahead (well short of a majority) and the NDP/Greens would support the Liberals.HYUFD said:
The Canadian Tories won more votes than Trudeau's Liberals last November but Trudeau is still PM and the Liberals still won most seatsSunil_Prasannan said:
Gore won more votes than Dubya in 2000....Malmesbury said:
I am quite sure that if, at the next presidential election Trump gets the popular vote and loses in the electoral college, that the Democratic Party will re-discover the perfection of the Electoral College. Odes will be composed in its praise, solemn columns written in Salon....Sunil_Prasannan said:
It's a seriously crap system, because millions more Americans voted for Hillary than for Trump.NorthernPowerhouse said:
They do have fifty different elections though. She didn’t win the race that she was competing in.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Americans were electing a President for the whole USA. The States don't elect 50 different Presidents, right?NorthernPowerhouse said:
She got the fastest 100 metre sprint in the 400 metre mixed hurdles.Sunil_Prasannan said:
She won!MarqueeMark said:
The only pain greater than losing once to Donald Trump is......williamglenn said:
Hillary 48%
Trump 46%
Michigan - Hillary lost by 0.23%, the Green polled 1.07%
Minnesota - Trump lost by 1.52% , the Libertarian polled 3.84%
Nebraska 2nd - Trump won by 2.24%, the Libertarian polled 4.54%
Nevada - Trump lost by 2.42%, the Libertarian polled 3.29%
New Hampshire - Trump lost by 0.32%, the Libertarian polled 4.13%, the Green polled 0.88%
New Mexico - Trump lost by 8.21%, the Libertarian polled 9.34%
Pennsylvania - Trump won by 0.72%, the Libertarian polled 2.38%, the Green polled 0.81%
Wisconsin - Trump won by 0.77%, the Libertarian polled 3.58%, the Green polled 1.04%1 -
She's really learnt nothing from 2016, has she?williamglenn said:0 -
Losing to Donald Trump is gonna mess with your sense of reality though.Casino_Royale said:
She's really learnt nothing from 2016, has she?williamglenn said:
"Donald Trump beat me. Donald Trump. That does not compute....."0 -
Rumours going around that Northern Rail is to be stripped of its franchise. Announcement in 30 minutes.0
-
A sentiment we can all get behind.Malmesbury said:
Oh... F$%k Off, Clinton.williamglenn said:0 -
Excellent post.MyBurningEars said:
Not commenting substantively here on the merits or not of the US system, just an observation.OllyT said:
Except that certainly in modern times the Republicans are the only party that benefits from the bias of the EC, which is not surprising as it gives small rural states a disproportionate number of EC votes compared to the Californias and New Yorks.Malmesbury said:
I....Sunil_Prasannan said:
It's a seriously crap system, because millions more Americans voted for Hillary than for Trump.NorthernPowerhouse said:
They do have fifty different elections though. She didn’t win the race that she was competing in.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Americans were electing a President for the whole USA. The States don't elect 50 different Presidents, right?NorthernPowerhouse said:
She got the fastest 100 metre sprint in the 400 metre mixed hurdles.Sunil_Prasannan said:
She won!MarqueeMark said:
The only pain greater than losing once to Donald Trump is......williamglenn said:
Hillary 48%
Trump 46%
The Norwegian electoral system deliberately overweights rural areas compared to urban, on the grounds that urban area naturally have more influence (if nothing else, it's where the political, economic and cultural life of the country is concentrated) and the rural areas deserve something to counteract that.
What seems axiomatically "fair" to one person is not necessarily seen as "fair" by another, particularly in different social/cultural/historical contexts. When the rules were written for choosing the US president, the issue in question was "how do the States find a way to agree on who to preside over them collectively?" rather than viewing it as some Lockean-style social contract whereby the individuals who formed the citizenry had to strike an agreement on which individual to delegate power to. Obviously times have changed, as has the nature of political power within the United States, so if people want to argue over which of these viewpoints is now the most relevant, have at it! But I do think it would be wrong to treat electoral systems other than "one citizen, one vote" as automatically and inherently unfair and undemocratic, without paying some attention to their context, evolution, theoretical underpinnings and practical ramifications.0 -
It will of course potentially make matters worse for NR commuters if it does lose its franchise, as it would then be being run directly by the very people most responsible for the delays in Network Rail and DafT. But in the short term it would I think be popular.0
-
Well, in a forced choice against Hillary Clinton....viewcode said:
Why would a libertarian vote for Trump?HYUFD said:
And Gary Johnson the Libertarian candidate won 3.28% in the US in 2016, most of his vote would have gone to Trump in a second round enabling him to overtake Hillary in the popular votedodrade said:
Under PR Trudeau would still be PM as the Tories were only just ahead (well short of a majority) and the NDP/Greens would support the Liberals.HYUFD said:
The Canadian Tories won more votes than Trudeau's Liberals last November but Trudeau is still PM and the Liberals still won most seatsSunil_Prasannan said:
Gore won more votes than Dubya in 2000....Malmesbury said:
I am quite sure that if, at the next presidential election Trump gets the popular vote and loses in the electoral college, that the Democratic Party will re-discover the perfection of the Electoral College. Odes will be composed in its praise, solemn columns written in Salon....Sunil_Prasannan said:
It's a seriously crap system, because millions more Americans voted for Hillary than for Trump.NorthernPowerhouse said:
They do have fifty different elections though. She didn’t win the race that she was competing in.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Americans were electing a President for the whole USA. The States don't elect 50 different Presidents, right?NorthernPowerhouse said:
She got the fastest 100 metre sprint in the 400 metre mixed hurdles.Sunil_Prasannan said:
She won!MarqueeMark said:
The only pain greater than losing once to Donald Trump is......williamglenn said:
Hillary 48%
Trump 46%0 -
On topic, there's pro-EU, anti-EU and practical-minded middle. The first two groups are dug in and won't shift.
The practical-minded middle generally prefer independence all things being equal. If it seems to be working out basically fine they'll think it was a good idea. If it looks like a shitshow they'll think it was a bad idea.
Next week Britain will still be in the transition, so it'll be basically the same, and patriotically-minded people will be patriotically happy because on paper at least they're independent, and Boris will be patriotically optimistic. So I think the trackers will move towards Brexit.
I think disillusion sets in a year or two down the line if and when the transition ends, and depending how it's done either lots of bad practical things happen, or they discover that there's no more independence and less control, because the government's given it up to stop bad practical things happening.0 -
I would consider voting for Donald Trump if the alternative was to vote for Michael Gove. But it would be a tough decision.MarqueeMark said:Well, in a forced choice against Hillary Clinton....
If a third option was to be rogered to death with a cattle prod I would immediately bend over.0 -
American libertarianism isn't like the European kind, over there it's as much about racism as it is about liberty.viewcode said:Why would a libertarian vote for Trump?
0 -
It works both ways: a less divisive and more popular Republican would have swept up more of those swing States. A fair few soft republicans went libertarian.MarqueeMark said:
There were several states in 2016 where the non-Rep/Dem party candidate may have shaken up the result:viewcode said:
Why would a libertarian vote for Trump?HYUFD said:
And Gary Johnson the Libertarian candidate won 3.28% in the US in 2016, most of his vote would have gone to Trump in a second round enabling him to overtake Hillary in the popular votedodrade said:
Uls.HYUFD said:
ThtsSunil_Prasannan said:
Gore won more votes than Dubya in 2000....Malmesbury said:
...Sunil_Prasannan said:
It's a seriously crap system, because millions more Americans voted for Hillary than for Trump.NorthernPowerhouse said:
They do have fifty different elections though. She didn’t win the race that she was competing in.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Americans were electing a President for the whole USA. The States don't elect 50 different Presidents, right?NorthernPowerhouse said:
She got the fastest 100 metre sprint in the 400 metre mixed hurdles.Sunil_Prasannan said:
She won!MarqueeMark said:
The only pain greater than losing once to Donald Trump is......williamglenn said:
Hillary 48%
Trump 46%
Michigan - Hillary lost by 0.23%, the Green polled 1.07%
Minnesota - Trump lost by 1.52% , the Libertarian polled 3.84%
Nebraska 2nd - Trump won by 2.24%, the Libertarian polled 4.54%
Nevada - Trump lost by 2.42%, the Libertarian polled 3.29%
New Hampshire - Trump lost by 0.32%, the Libertarian polled 4.13%, the Green polled 0.88%
New Mexico - Trump lost by 8.21%, the Libertarian polled 9.34%
Pennsylvania - Trump won by 0.72%, the Libertarian polled 2.38%, the Green polled 0.81%
Wisconsin - Trump won by 0.77%, the Libertarian polled 3.58%, the Green polled 1.04%
By contrast, a Democratic candidate with less arrogance and self-awareness than Hillary Clinton would have been hard to find. Many of those she expected to support her either stayed at home or went for a minor party.1 -
But there's a case for saying the Green candidate delivered the White House to their worst nightmare. They most likely cost Hillary Michigan, Wisconsin and perhaps Pennsylvania.Casino_Royale said:
It works both ways: a less divisive and more popular Republican would have swept up more of those swing States. A fair few soft republicans went libertarian.MarqueeMark said:
There were several states in 2016 where the non-Rep/Dem party candidate may have shaken up the result:viewcode said:
Why would a libertarian vote for Trump?HYUFD said:
And Gary Johnson the Libertarian candidate won 3.28% in the US in 2016, most of his vote would have gone to Trump in a second round enabling him to overtake Hillary in the popular votedodrade said:
Uls.HYUFD said:
ThtsSunil_Prasannan said:
Gore won more votes than Dubya in 2000....Malmesbury said:
...Sunil_Prasannan said:
It's a seriously crap system, because millions more Americans voted for Hillary than for Trump.NorthernPowerhouse said:
They do have fifty different elections though. She didn’t win the race that she was competing in.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Americans were electing a President for the whole USA. The States don't elect 50 different Presidents, right?NorthernPowerhouse said:
She got the fastest 100 metre sprint in the 400 metre mixed hurdles.Sunil_Prasannan said:
She won!MarqueeMark said:
The only pain greater than losing once to Donald Trump is......williamglenn said:
Hillary 48%
Trump 46%
Michigan - Hillary lost by 0.23%, the Green polled 1.07%
Minnesota - Trump lost by 1.52% , the Libertarian polled 3.84%
Nebraska 2nd - Trump won by 2.24%, the Libertarian polled 4.54%
Nevada - Trump lost by 2.42%, the Libertarian polled 3.29%
New Hampshire - Trump lost by 0.32%, the Libertarian polled 4.13%, the Green polled 0.88%
New Mexico - Trump lost by 8.21%, the Libertarian polled 9.34%
Pennsylvania - Trump won by 0.72%, the Libertarian polled 2.38%, the Green polled 0.81%
Wisconsin - Trump won by 0.77%, the Libertarian polled 3.58%, the Green polled 1.04%
By contrast, a Democratic candidate with less arrogance and self-awareness than Hillary Clinton would have been hard to find. Many of those she expected to support her either stayed at home or went for a minor party.0 -
"British Airways to halt Beijing, Shanghai flights"
https://paxex.aero/2020/01/british-airways-to-halt-beijing-shanghai-flights/0 -
The price of pursuing a zero-sum approach was especially severe for the opponents of Brexit. Recently, I bumped into a highly combative leading light of the second referendum campaign. He was in fine form. He had given it his best shot, he said, admitting that perhaps those who had argued that Remainers should accept the outcome and fight for a softer Brexit were right after all. It was a maddening conversation. By rubbishing any search for a compromise or soft Brexit, the Remainers lost entirely, at a time when the parliamentary numbers decreed it need not be so.
https://amp.ft.com/content/775189fa-40ea-11ea-bdb5-169ba7be433d?__twitter_impression=true0 -
It would be only the second time in 8 presidential elections that the Dems would have lost the popular vote.Malmesbury said:
I am quite sure that if, at the next presidential election Trump gets the popular vote and loses in the electoral college, that the Democratic Party will re-discover the perfection of the Electoral College. Odes will be composed in its praise, solemn columns written in Salon....Sunil_Prasannan said:
It's a seriously crap system, because millions more Americans voted for Hillary than for Trump.NorthernPowerhouse said:
They do have fifty different elections though. She didn’t win the race that she was competing in.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Americans were electing a President for the whole USA. The States don't elect 50 different Presidents, right?NorthernPowerhouse said:
She got the fastest 100 metre sprint in the 400 metre mixed hurdles.Sunil_Prasannan said:
She won!MarqueeMark said:
The only pain greater than losing once to Donald Trump is......williamglenn said:
Hillary 48%
Trump 46%1 -
Clinton cost it herself. If it hadn’t been the Greens it’d have been someone else, like the stay-at-home party.MarqueeMark said:
But there's a case for saying the Green candidate delivered the White House to their worst nightmare. They most likely cost Hillary Michigan, Wisconsin and perhaps Pennsylvania.Casino_Royale said:
It works both ways: a less divisive and more popular Republican would have swept up more of those swing States. A fair few soft republicans went libertarian.MarqueeMark said:
There were several states in 2016 where the non-Rep/Dem party candidate may have shaken upviewcode said:
Why would a libertarian vote for Trump?HYUFD said:
And Gary Johnson the Libertarian candidate won 3.28% in the US in 2016, most of his vote would have gone to Trump in a second round enabling him to overtake Hillary in the popular votedodrade said:
Uls.HYUFD said:
ThtsSunil_Prasannan said:
Gore won more votes than Dubya in 2000....Malmesbury said:
...Sunil_Prasannan said:
It's a seriously crap system, because millions more Americans voted for Hillary than for Trump.NorthernPowerhouse said:
They do have fifty different elections though. She didn’t win the race that she was competing in.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Americans were electing a President for the whole USA. The States don't elect 50 different Presidents, right?NorthernPowerhouse said:
She got the fastest 100 metre sprint in the 400 metre mixed hurdles.Sunil_Prasannan said:
She won!MarqueeMark said:
The only pain greater than losing once to Donald Trump is......williamglenn said:
Hillary 48%
Trump 46%
Wisconsin - Trump won by 0.77%, the Libertarian polled 3.58%, the Green polled 1.04%
By contrast, a Democratic candidate with less arrogance and self-awareness than Hillary Clinton would have been hard to find. Many of those she expected to support her either stayed at home or went for a minor party.0 -
Inventory on flights through 29 February appears to be zeroed out indicating that the carrier expects the cuts to last at least that long.Andy_JS said:"British Airways to halt Beijing, Shanghai flights"
https://paxex.aero/2020/01/british-airways-to-halt-beijing-shanghai-flights/0 -
Younger son has a week-long business trip to China very shortly. I wonder!Andy_JS said:"British Airways to halt Beijing, Shanghai flights"
https://paxex.aero/2020/01/british-airways-to-halt-beijing-shanghai-flights/0 -
Probably due to the flights being close to empty.Andy_JS said:"British Airways to halt Beijing, Shanghai flights"
https://paxex.aero/2020/01/british-airways-to-halt-beijing-shanghai-flights/
0 -
The American constitution used to make the runner up the vice president.
If the constitution is so brilliant for American elections why did they change that?0 -
Because when Adams and Jefferson were elected president and vice president they spent all their time feuding and as near as toucher caused the country to collapse.Alistair said:The American constitution used to make the runner up the vice president.
If the constitution is so brilliant for American elections why did they change that?
So the Twelfth Amendment was passed, stipulating separate elections for the different roles.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twelfth_Amendment_to_the_United_States_Constitution0 -
Good morning, everyone.
The graph appears to indicate that people mostly think they're right.0 -
On the tube there’s now a very very subtle - but detectable - nervousness now from some when Chinese tourists onboard, often with facemasks themselves. If they cough or sneeze then it’s high-intensity awkward floor-staring.OldKingCole said:
Younger son has a week-long business trip to China very shortly. I wonder!Andy_JS said:"British Airways to halt Beijing, Shanghai flights"
https://paxex.aero/2020/01/british-airways-to-halt-beijing-shanghai-flights/
I'm presuming the Guardian will publish the obvious opinion piece on this over the next few weeks.0 -
Both sides were playing very high stakes poker.CarlottaVance said:The price of pursuing a zero-sum approach was especially severe for the opponents of Brexit. Recently, I bumped into a highly combative leading light of the second referendum campaign. He was in fine form. He had given it his best shot, he said, admitting that perhaps those who had argued that Remainers should accept the outcome and fight for a softer Brexit were right after all. It was a maddening conversation. By rubbishing any search for a compromise or soft Brexit, the Remainers lost entirely, at a time when the parliamentary numbers decreed it need not be so.
https://amp.ft.com/content/775189fa-40ea-11ea-bdb5-169ba7be433d?__twitter_impression=true0 -
They’ve already done it:Casino_Royale said:
On the tube there’s now a very very subtle - but detectable - nervousness now from some when Chinese tourists onboard, often with facemasks themselves. If they cough or sneeze then it’s high-intensity awkward floor-staring.OldKingCole said:
Younger son has a week-long business trip to China very shortly. I wonder!Andy_JS said:"British Airways to halt Beijing, Shanghai flights"
https://paxex.aero/2020/01/british-airways-to-halt-beijing-shanghai-flights/
I'm presuming the Guardian will publish the obvious opinion piece on this over the next few weeks.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jan/27/coronavirus-panic-uk-hostile-environment-east-asians1 -
-
Quite. Imagine that Boris Johnson would be required to make Jeremy Corbyn his deputy.ydoethur said:
Because when Adams and Jefferson were elected president and vice president they spent all their time feuding and as near as toucher caused the country to collapse.Alistair said:The American constitution used to make the runner up the vice president.
If the constitution is so brilliant for American elections why did they change that?
So the Twelfth Amendment was passed, stipulating separate elections for the different roles.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twelfth_Amendment_to_the_United_States_Constitution0 -
On topic, either YouGov have screwed up their sampling or there's a whole bunch of people claiming to have voted Leave when they actually voted Remain,
The second is quite possible. YouGov have asked this question plenty times before.0 -
There were an awful lot of very close results in 2016 (as also happened in 2000), tiny margins could well swing the election either way this year too.MarqueeMark said:
There were several states in 2016 where the non-Rep/Dem party candidate may have shaken up the result:viewcode said:
Why would a libertarian vote for Trump?HYUFD said:
And Gary Johnson the Libertarian candidate won 3.28% in the US in 2016, most of his vote would have gone to Trump in a second round enabling him to overtake Hillary in the popular votedodrade said:
Under PR Trudeau would still be PM as the Tories were only just ahead (well short of a majority) and the NDP/Greens would support the Liberals.HYUFD said:
The Canadian Tories won more votes than Trudeau's Liberals last November but Trudeau is still PM and the Liberals still won most seatsSunil_Prasannan said:
Gore won more votes than Dubya in 2000....Malmesbury said:
I am quite sure that if, at the next presidential election Trump gets the popular vote and loses in the electoral college, that the Democratic Party will re-discover the perfection of the Electoral College. Odes will be composed in its praise, solemn columns written in Salon....Sunil_Prasannan said:
It's a seriously crap system, because millions more Americans voted for Hillary than for Trump.NorthernPowerhouse said:
They do have fifty different elections though. She didn’t win the race that she was competing in.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Americans were electing a President for the whole USA. The States don't elect 50 different Presidents, right?NorthernPowerhouse said:
Michigan - Hillary lost by 0.23%, the Green polled 1.07%
Minnesota - Trump lost by 1.52% , the Libertarian polled 3.84%
Nebraska 2nd - Trump won by 2.24%, the Libertarian polled 4.54%
Nevada - Trump lost by 2.42%, the Libertarian polled 3.29%
New Hampshire - Trump lost by 0.32%, the Libertarian polled 4.13%, the Green polled 0.88%
New Mexico - Trump lost by 8.21%, the Libertarian polled 9.34%
Pennsylvania - Trump won by 0.72%, the Libertarian polled 2.38%, the Green polled 0.81%
Wisconsin - Trump won by 0.77%, the Libertarian polled 3.58%, the Green polled 1.04%0 -
The Electoral College is certainly an archaic concept, but the reality is that the US Constitution is both revered and fossilised. It has a status almost like the Bible amongst Americans as holy writ. It is possible to argue over interpretation, but changing it is not on the cards. The barriers to amendments are so high as to be an impossible super-majority.ydoethur said:
Because when Adams and Jefferson were elected president and vice president they spent all their time feuding and as near as toucher caused the country to collapse.Alistair said:The American constitution used to make the runner up the vice president.
If the constitution is so brilliant for American elections why did they change that?
So the Twelfth Amendment was passed, stipulating separate elections for the different roles.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twelfth_Amendment_to_the_United_States_Constitution
0 -
Imagine the shame of been bested by Mark Francois and Andrea Jenkyns.Casino_Royale said:
Both sides were playing very high stakes poker.CarlottaVance said:The price of pursuing a zero-sum approach was especially severe for the opponents of Brexit. Recently, I bumped into a highly combative leading light of the second referendum campaign. He was in fine form. He had given it his best shot, he said, admitting that perhaps those who had argued that Remainers should accept the outcome and fight for a softer Brexit were right after all. It was a maddening conversation. By rubbishing any search for a compromise or soft Brexit, the Remainers lost entirely, at a time when the parliamentary numbers decreed it need not be so.
https://amp.ft.com/content/775189fa-40ea-11ea-bdb5-169ba7be433d?__twitter_impression=true0 -
These trolling attempts are dull.NorthernPowerhouse said:
Imagine the shame of been bested by Mark Francois and Andrea Jenkyns.Casino_Royale said:
Both sides were playing very high stakes poker.CarlottaVance said:The price of pursuing a zero-sum approach was especially severe for the opponents of Brexit. Recently, I bumped into a highly combative leading light of the second referendum campaign. He was in fine form. He had given it his best shot, he said, admitting that perhaps those who had argued that Remainers should accept the outcome and fight for a softer Brexit were right after all. It was a maddening conversation. By rubbishing any search for a compromise or soft Brexit, the Remainers lost entirely, at a time when the parliamentary numbers decreed it need not be so.
https://amp.ft.com/content/775189fa-40ea-11ea-bdb5-169ba7be433d?__twitter_impression=true0 -
It'll be interesting to see what he decides to do.OldKingCole said:
Younger son has a week-long business trip to China very shortly. I wonder!Andy_JS said:"British Airways to halt Beijing, Shanghai flights"
https://paxex.aero/2020/01/british-airways-to-halt-beijing-shanghai-flights/0 -
Not sure about the revered bit. Their President has no respect for it at all.Foxy said:
The Electoral College is certainly an archaic concept, but the reality is that the US Constitution is both revered and fossilised. It has a status almost like the Bible amongst Americans as holy writ. It is possible to argue over interpretation, but changing it is not on the cards. The barriers to amendments are so high as to be an impossible super-majority.ydoethur said:
Because when Adams and Jefferson were elected president and vice president they spent all their time feuding and as near as toucher caused the country to collapse.Alistair said:The American constitution used to make the runner up the vice president.
If the constitution is so brilliant for American elections why did they change that?
So the Twelfth Amendment was passed, stipulating separate elections for the different roles.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twelfth_Amendment_to_the_United_States_Constitution
0 -
Won’t he have difficulty getting insurance now that the Foreign Office have advised against all but essential travel?Andy_JS said:
It'll be interesting to see what he decides to do.OldKingCole said:
Younger son has a week-long business trip to China very shortly. I wonder!Andy_JS said:"British Airways to halt Beijing, Shanghai flights"
https://paxex.aero/2020/01/british-airways-to-halt-beijing-shanghai-flights/0 -
I think my immediate answer would be, ‘the bastards deserve each other.’NickPalmer said:
Quite. Imagine that Boris Johnson would be required to make Jeremy Corbyn his deputy.ydoethur said:
Because when Adams and Jefferson were elected president and vice president they spent all their time feuding and as near as toucher caused the country to collapse.Alistair said:The American constitution used to make the runner up the vice president.
If the constitution is so brilliant for American elections why did they change that?
So the Twelfth Amendment was passed, stipulating separate elections for the different roles.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twelfth_Amendment_to_the_United_States_Constitution
From a highly partisan raging centrist...0 -
FO advising against all but “essential” travel to Mainland China. R4 confirming BA no flights until March and BA flying China based staff home. Flights to Hong Kong continueOldKingCole said:
Younger son has a week-long business trip to China very shortly. I wonder!Andy_JS said:"British Airways to halt Beijing, Shanghai flights"
https://paxex.aero/2020/01/british-airways-to-halt-beijing-shanghai-flights/1 -
The great* John McAfee is running for the Libertarian Party nomination again in 2020. As is the former Governor (and Republican Senator) for Rhode Island, Lincoln Chafee. As is this man:MarqueeMark said:There were several states in 2016 where the non-Rep/Dem party candidate may have shaken up the result:
Michigan - Hillary lost by 0.23%, the Green polled 1.07%
Minnesota - Trump lost by 1.52% , the Libertarian polled 3.84%
Nebraska 2nd - Trump won by 2.24%, the Libertarian polled 4.54%
Nevada - Trump lost by 2.42%, the Libertarian polled 3.29%
New Hampshire - Trump lost by 0.32%, the Libertarian polled 4.13%, the Green polled 0.88%
New Mexico - Trump lost by 8.21%, the Libertarian polled 9.34%
Pennsylvania - Trump won by 0.72%, the Libertarian polled 2.38%, the Green polled 0.81%
Wisconsin - Trump won by 0.77%, the Libertarian polled 3.58%, the Green polled 1.04%
It will be interesting to see if the Libertarians do as well in 2020. If they only polls (say) 1%, then it probably gives Donald Trump a c. 2% boost on his 2016 result. Worth bearing in mind.
* When I say "great", what I actually mean is "greatly disturbed"1 -
On the plus side, he’d likely get an upgrade...Andy_JS said:
It'll be interesting to see what he decides to do.OldKingCole said:
Younger son has a week-long business trip to China very shortly. I wonder!Andy_JS said:"British Airways to halt Beijing, Shanghai flights"
https://paxex.aero/2020/01/british-airways-to-halt-beijing-shanghai-flights/0 -
In the Far East it’s normal for people with a common cold to wear a face mask themselves to try to limit spreading bugs.Casino_Royale said:
On the tube there’s now a very very subtle - but detectable - nervousness now from some when Chinese tourists onboard, often with facemasks themselves. If they cough or sneeze then it’s high-intensity awkward floor-staring.OldKingCole said:
Younger son has a week-long business trip to China very shortly. I wonder!Andy_JS said:"British Airways to halt Beijing, Shanghai flights"
https://paxex.aero/2020/01/british-airways-to-halt-beijing-shanghai-flights/
I'm presuming the Guardian will publish the obvious opinion piece on this over the next few weeks.0 -
Wales yougov VI:
Con 41% +4
Lab 36% -4
PLC 13% +3
Linden 5% -1
Yougov 20-26 jan changes with GE0 -
I would recommend following the FCO advice.Gallowgate said:
Won’t he have difficulty getting insurance now that the Foreign Office have advised against all but essential travel?Andy_JS said:
It'll be interesting to see what he decides to do.OldKingCole said:
Younger son has a week-long business trip to China very shortly. I wonder!Andy_JS said:"British Airways to halt Beijing, Shanghai flights"
https://paxex.aero/2020/01/british-airways-to-halt-beijing-shanghai-flights/
The Australians are putting their returnees in Island quarantine.0 -
First ever Con lead?NorthernPowerhouse said:Wales yougov VI:
Con 41% +4
Lab 36% -4
PLC 13% +3
Linden 5% -1
Yougov 20-26 jan changes with GE0 -
Face masks are relatively common anyway, as the air quality can be so bad.CarlottaVance said:
In the Far East it’s normal for people with a common cold to wear a face mask themselves to try to limit spreading bugs.Casino_Royale said:
On the tube there’s now a very very subtle - but detectable - nervousness now from some when Chinese tourists onboard, often with facemasks themselves. If they cough or sneeze then it’s high-intensity awkward floor-staring.OldKingCole said:
Younger son has a week-long business trip to China very shortly. I wonder!Andy_JS said:"British Airways to halt Beijing, Shanghai flights"
https://paxex.aero/2020/01/british-airways-to-halt-beijing-shanghai-flights/
I'm presuming the Guardian will publish the obvious opinion piece on this over the next few weeks.
And the deeper tube lines have equally appalling air quality.0 -
Another useful article on the Labour selection from the impeccably well-informed Sienna Rodgers:
https://labourlist.org/2020/01/labours-leadership-election-is-flagging/
Didn't see the usual count of nominations last night - were there any?0 -
I have a draft thread header for OGH that I must get round to sending at some point, which suggests there may be value in Tories - most seats at the Sennedd election next year.NorthernPowerhouse said:Wales yougov VI:
Con 41% +4
Lab 36% -4
PLC 13% +3
Linden 5% -1
Yougov 20-26 jan changes with GE
This VI poll would tend to confirm that.
Have a good morning.2 -
Ha!Fysics_Teacher said:
They’ve already done it:Casino_Royale said:
On the tube there’s now a very very subtle - but detectable - nervousness now from some when Chinese tourists onboard, often with facemasks themselves. If they cough or sneeze then it’s high-intensity awkward floor-staring.OldKingCole said:
Younger son has a week-long business trip to China very shortly. I wonder!Andy_JS said:"British Airways to halt Beijing, Shanghai flights"
https://paxex.aero/2020/01/british-airways-to-halt-beijing-shanghai-flights/
I'm presuming the Guardian will publish the obvious opinion piece on this over the next few weeks.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jan/27/coronavirus-panic-uk-hostile-environment-east-asians0 -
As it stands but these things can change and change relatively quickly.Alistair said:
It would be only the second time in 8 presidential elections that the Dems would have lost the popular vote.Malmesbury said:
I am quite sure that if, at the next presidential election Trump gets the popular vote and loses in the electoral college, that the Democratic Party will re-discover the perfection of the Electoral College. Odes will be composed in its praise, solemn columns written in Salon....Sunil_Prasannan said:
It's a seriously crap system, because millions more Americans voted for Hillary than for Trump.NorthernPowerhouse said:
They do have fifty different elections though. She didn’t win the race that she was competing in.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Americans were electing a President for the whole USA. The States don't elect 50 different Presidents, right?NorthernPowerhouse said:
She got the fastest 100 metre sprint in the 400 metre mixed hurdles.Sunil_Prasannan said:
She won!MarqueeMark said:
The only pain greater than losing once to Donald Trump is......williamglenn said:
Hillary 48%
Trump 46%
Texas with its 38 Electoral College votes is trending blue and rather fast. By the end of the next decade its plausible the Democrats could win Texas which would switch an incredible 76 Electoral College votes (38 swing, GOP lose 38 and Dems gain 38).
If that happens then the Democrats could very plausibly win the White House while losing the popular vote.1 -
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Off topic: I’m being asked to write a piece on the greatest challenge facing “professional service firms” as part of a job application. I’m tackling it by focusing on globalisation leading to greater competition and therefore downward pressure costs. This means clients are wanting greater value, so outcome based pricing rather than time-based etc. I’m also talking about those embracing technology like AI and algorithms are better able to compete bla bla.
Right approach or too obvious?1 -
Japan’s first case of domestic transmission... a bus driver:
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/01/28/national/japan-first-domestic-transmission-coronavirus/
One of three new cases reported in Japan on Tuesday is a male bus driver in his 60s who lives in Nara Prefecture. The man did not travel to Wuhan but drove buses with tour groups from the city twice this month, officials said. The man is the first Japanese confirmed to be infected with the new coronavirus while this is also the first human-to-human transmission confirmed in Japan...0 -
Have you thought of forming a political party? Maybe the Middle Order?ydoethur said:
I think my immediate answer would be, ‘the bastards deserve each other.’NickPalmer said:
Quite. Imagine that Boris Johnson would be required to make Jeremy Corbyn his deputy.ydoethur said:
Because when Adams and Jefferson were elected president and vice president they spent all their time feuding and as near as toucher caused the country to collapse.Alistair said:The American constitution used to make the runner up the vice president.
If the constitution is so brilliant for American elections why did they change that?
So the Twelfth Amendment was passed, stipulating separate elections for the different roles.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twelfth_Amendment_to_the_United_States_Constitution
From a highly partisan raging centrist...0 -
It's also possible with a new more recent election for their weighting that YouGov aren't weighting to the referendum result with this release of the pollFF43 said:On topic, either YouGov have screwed up their sampling or there's a whole bunch of people claiming to have voted Leave when they actually voted Remain,
The second is quite possible. YouGov have asked this question plenty times before.0 -
I think we could Root for that or at least Stokes up enthusiasm and domestic staff would not be an issue.MarqueeMark said:
Have you thought of forming a political party? Maybe the Middle Order?ydoethur said:
I think my immediate answer would be, ‘the bastards deserve each other.’NickPalmer said:
Quite. Imagine that Boris Johnson would be required to make Jeremy Corbyn his deputy.ydoethur said:
Because when Adams and Jefferson were elected president and vice president they spent all their time feuding and as near as toucher caused the country to collapse.Alistair said:The American constitution used to make the runner up the vice president.
If the constitution is so brilliant for American elections why did they change that?
So the Twelfth Amendment was passed, stipulating separate elections for the different roles.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twelfth_Amendment_to_the_United_States_Constitution
From a highly partisan raging centrist...2 -
The HS2 debate is incredibly parochial isn't it. I keep hearing people on the radio from the north saying things like "It only benefits people between London and Birmingham and vice versa and since I'm in the north I don't like the idea of it".0
-
Really can't help feeling that these quarantine ideas have come far too late.Nigelb said:Japan’s first case of domestic transmission... a bus driver:
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/01/28/national/japan-first-domestic-transmission-coronavirus/
One of three new cases reported in Japan on Tuesday is a male bus driver in his 60s who lives in Nara Prefecture. The man did not travel to Wuhan but drove buses with tour groups from the city twice this month, officials said. The man is the first Japanese confirmed to be infected with the new coronavirus while this is also the first human-to-human transmission confirmed in Japan...0 -
shouldn't it also be BXp lose 40% of its supportCasino_Royale said:0 -
Makes you think there must be loads of people walking around with this who haven't been diagnosed yet. The dude was driving tour groups backwards and forwards since the 11th, went to the doctor on 17th, got told it wasn't too bad and sent home, then only got diagnosed the other day when it got worse and he went to the doctor's again.Nigelb said:Japan’s first case of domestic transmission... a bus driver:
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/01/28/national/japan-first-domestic-transmission-coronavirus/
One of three new cases reported in Japan on Tuesday is a male bus driver in his 60s who lives in Nara Prefecture. The man did not travel to Wuhan but drove buses with tour groups from the city twice this month, officials said. The man is the first Japanese confirmed to be infected with the new coronavirus while this is also the first human-to-human transmission confirmed in Japan...0 -
Will this be enough to get RLB's assessment down to 9/10? Probably not.Casino_Royale said:0 -
Re: Huawei - whilst I have no doubt there may be genuine (informed) disquiet on the Tory benches about Huawei, if the Opposition is being led by IDS then it probably is not all so. A man who history shows will just parrot whatever line he is being fed by the Americans, with little thought for the idea that the U.K. might have good reason to take an independent position. We learnt that from the Iraq war, and not much has changed since.
The US I’m sure have genuine security concerns, but a large dollop of it must be commercially motivated.0 -
behind that twitter is a clip of Long Bailey behind a sign that says "for the many not the Few". Boris should use that, for the many not the few who have deserted Labour and now vote Tory.0
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Obvious is not necessarily wrong.Gallowgate said:Off topic: I’m being asked to write a piece on the biggest challenge facing “professional service firms” as part of a job application. I’m tackling it by focusing on globalisation leading to greater competition and therefore downward pressure costs. This means clients are wanting greater value, so outcome based pricing rather than time-based etc. I’m also talking about those embracing technology like AI and algorithms are better able to compete bla bla.
Right approach or too obvious?
0 -
It is worth remembering that the referendum was almost four years ago now. In that time almost three million people will have been added to the electoral roll, and two and a half million people will have died.FF43 said:
It's also possible with a new more recent election for their weighting that YouGov aren't weighting to the referendum result with this release of the pollFF43 said:On topic, either YouGov have screwed up their sampling or there's a whole bunch of people claiming to have voted Leave when they actually voted Remain,
The second is quite possible. YouGov have asked this question plenty times before.0 -
Boris has used that. For the many, not the few comes originally from Boris's classical muse, Pericles.squareroot2 said:behind that twitter is a clip of Long Bailey behind a sign that says "for the many not the Few". Boris should use that, for the many not the few who have deserted Labour and now vote Tory.
0 -
I thought the Labour slogan was "For the many, not the Jews"squareroot2 said:behind that twitter is a clip of Long Bailey behind a sign that says "for the many not the Few". Boris should use that, for the many not the few who have deserted Labour and now vote Tory.
1 -
Fixed fees would be another alternative to time-based payments.rcs1000 said:
Obvious is not necessarily wrong.Gallowgate said:Off topic: I’m being asked to write a piece on the biggest challenge facing “professional service firms” as part of a job application. I’m tackling it by focusing on globalisation leading to greater competition and therefore downward pressure costs. This means clients are wanting greater value, so outcome based pricing rather than time-based etc. I’m also talking about those embracing technology like AI and algorithms are better able to compete bla bla.
Right approach or too obvious?
If I wanted something that might be vaguely original then I'd spend 10 minutes (15 at the outside) researching the top half dozen firms in [insert sector here] social media activity to see if, say, twitter activity or number of followers or youtube videos correlate with size, profitability or anything at all.
But I expect the winner will state the bleeding obvious in an engaging way.0 -
Its rapid collapse would be almost inevitable.MarqueeMark said:
Have you thought of forming a political party? Maybe the Middle Order?ydoethur said:
I think my immediate answer would be, ‘the bastards deserve each other.’NickPalmer said:
Quite. Imagine that Boris Johnson would be required to make Jeremy Corbyn his deputy.ydoethur said:
Because when Adams and Jefferson were elected president and vice president they spent all their time feuding and as near as toucher caused the country to collapse.Alistair said:The American constitution used to make the runner up the vice president.
If the constitution is so brilliant for American elections why did they change that?
So the Twelfth Amendment was passed, stipulating separate elections for the different roles.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twelfth_Amendment_to_the_United_States_Constitution
From a highly partisan raging centrist...
0 -
I assume Farage will be launching his new party in the next few days. It's apparently going to be called Reform.0
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Yep, it’s dire.Andy_JS said:The HS2 debate is incredibly parochial isn't it. I keep hearing people on the radio from the north saying things like "It only benefits people between London and Birmingham and vice versa and since I'm in the north I don't like the idea of it".
0 -
Right approach. I’ve been telling the owners of my business the same thing.Gallowgate said:Off topic: I’m being asked to write a piece on the greatest challenge facing “professional service firms” as part of a job application. I’m tackling it by focusing on globalisation leading to greater competition and therefore downward pressure costs. This means clients are wanting greater value, so outcome based pricing rather than time-based etc. I’m also talking about those embracing technology like AI and algorithms are better able to compete bla bla.
Right approach or too obvious?1 -
Yes, there's now overwhelming evidence for asymptomatic transmission, which could make it very difficult indeed to get under control.edmundintokyo said:
Makes you think there must be loads of people walking around with this who haven't been diagnosed yet. The dude was driving tour groups backwards and forwards since the 11th, went to the doctor on 17th, got told it wasn't too bad and sent home, then only got diagnosed the other day when it got worse and he went to the doctor's again.Nigelb said:Japan’s first case of domestic transmission... a bus driver:
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/01/28/national/japan-first-domestic-transmission-coronavirus/
One of three new cases reported in Japan on Tuesday is a male bus driver in his 60s who lives in Nara Prefecture. The man did not travel to Wuhan but drove buses with tour groups from the city twice this month, officials said. The man is the first Japanese confirmed to be infected with the new coronavirus while this is also the first human-to-human transmission confirmed in Japan...
In contrast, SARS had an incubation period of up to two weeks during which patients were not infectious, which is why we could prevent its spread relatively easily. This coronavirus has already seen documented cases exceed the total for SARS.0 -
No.CarlottaVance said:
First ever Con lead?NorthernPowerhouse said:Wales yougov VI:
Con 41% +4
Lab 36% -4
PLC 13% +3
Linden 5% -1
Yougov 20-26 jan changes with GE0 -
It just shows how badly it has been sold.Andy_JS said:The HS2 debate is incredibly parochial isn't it. I keep hearing people on the radio from the north saying things like "It only benefits people between London and Birmingham and vice versa and since I'm in the north I don't like the idea of it".
First impressions count as most of the time it's the first bit of news that people care about as most don't bother to look any further,
0
