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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The betting markets have yet to move on Farage’s claim that

SystemSystem Posts: 11,713
edited April 2014 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The betting markets have yet to move on Farage’s claim that UKIP will hold balance of power at GE2015

William Hills http://t.co/xwjAlkObCQ make it 4/7 UKIP won't win a seat at GE2015
Indy story http://t.co/si9chPFuF2 pic.twitter.com/IEfn7UNfeW

Read the full story here


«134

Comments

  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 41,028
    Four out of the last five threads negative on UKIP!!!

    And still they move up in the polls

    Partial?
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 41,028
    edited April 2014
    Again Mike shows the worst side of the story for UKIP

    Ladbrokes are 4/5 UKIP not to win a seat

    UKIP are also considered Britains most popular party in other polls

    http://blogs.independent.co.uk/2014/01/18/ukip-the-most-popular-party-in-britain/

    Terrible journalism Mike, embarrassing that you'd be so anti one party in every thread, thought you'd have kept a low profile after last nights cringeworthy gaffe
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,334
    Nice pits.
  • Options
    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited April 2014
    In fairness though, considering UKIP are such a "Marmite" party, I imagine that 19% who say they "like" them really adore them, and are giving serious thought to voting for them in 2015. Which would be a pretty sensational result.

    Have to say I'm surprised the Lib Dems still score such a high "like" rating.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 41,028
    edited April 2014
    Also, this time last year Ladbrokes markets on UKIPs vote percentage had 0-10% combined at 1/5

    The combined price is now 4/5


    So UKIP are 4/5 not 4/7 to get zero seats

    http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/ukip-to-win-a-seat

    They are the nations most popular party in a poll

    http://blogs.independent.co.uk/2014/01/18/ukip-the-most-popular-party-in-britain/

    & the betting markets have moved their way

    http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/ukip-vote-percentage


    The whole thread is just plain wrong
  • Options
    SophieBSophieB Posts: 5
    Mike is talking more and more from his Wallet ! Also far too much after timing on bets ! Telling us he has had a bet when odds have already been slashed
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,143
    Time to sell your US equities: AEP has a very bullish piece on the US (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/10783568/America-has-conquered-its-debt-crisis-with-incredible-speed.html)
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    El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,887
    @isam: you're not compelled to post on Mike's site if you dislike it so much, you know.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,016
    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Mr. 565, indeed, I was surprised the Lib Dems weren't less popular, given their polling.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 41,028
    Ladbrokes price history on UKIP achieving 10-15%

    http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/ukip-vote-percentage/bet-history/10-15-pp/today

    6/1 in January 2013
    2/1 now
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 41,028
    El_Capitano said:

    @isam: you're not compelled to post on Mike's site if you dislike it so much, you know.

    Who said I disliked the site?

    I am just correcting Mike's errors
  • Options
    SophieBSophieB Posts: 5
    Can i say that Nigel Farage to win any seat at the next election ( Where he stands) 7/4 is IMO a cracking bet
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    isam said:


    Who said I disliked the site?

    I am just correcting Mike's errors

    You could set up a rival blog with an eerily similar name. That worked out really well before...
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    isamisam Posts: 41,028
    Scott_P said:

    isam said:


    Who said I disliked the site?

    I am just correcting Mike's errors

    You could set up a rival blog with an eerily similar name. That worked out really well before...
    I haven't done that?
  • Options
    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    The March ICM was: Con 35%, Lab 38%, LD 12%, UKIP 9%

    http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2014/03/11/marchs-guardian-icm-poll-is-out/

    Which looks like an outlier. The LDs are then the least liked, most disliked party. That also fits the polling, and voting.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,016
    Miss B, welcome to pb.com.

    Got to say that's highly dependent on where he stands. Glasgow after a Yes vote would not necessarily see him romp to victory.
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited April 2014
    To be honest I'm not quite sure what this question shows. Is it really very different from voting intention? I can see that you might 'like' a party but not vote for it because you think it has no chance, but, other than that effect (which would presumably mean minor parties get more 'likes' than votes), does it tell us much more?

    What's more, the question seems bizarre to me in its own terms. I don't think of a party as something I like or dislike, in the way that I like Brahms but dislike Bruckner*. A political party is a means to an end - good government - not a lifestyle statement or item of personal taste.

    * Other than his motets, of course, which are superb.
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    OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,924
    Interesting figures, despite isam's little tantrum it gives some indication as to how much leeway each party has in attracting additional voters. UKIP's poster strategy will I am sure be lapped up by some of its core voters but it probably also hardens the views of those who oppose them.

    Historically, there has always been an easy but limited political market for nationalistic right wing groups who identify a scapegoat (foreigners, immigrants, Catholics, Jews etc) to blame everyone's problems on but that market has never been anything but minority appeal in this country.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    isam said:


    I haven't done that?

    No. Others have.
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    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    OllyT said:

    Interesting figures, despite isam's little tantrum it gives some indication as to how much leeway each party has in attracting additional voters. UKIP's poster strategy will I am sure be lapped up by some of its core voters but it probably also hardens the views of those who oppose them.

    Historically, there has always been an easy but limited political market for nationalistic right wing groups who identify a scapegoat (foreigners, immigrants, Catholics, Jews etc) to blame everyone's problems on but that market has never been anything but minority appeal in this country.

    According to today's YouGov, the majority side with UKIP. The extremists are those shouting 'racist'.

    http://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/04/24/voters-new-ukip-adverts-are-not-racist/
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,143
    isam said:

    Scott_P said:

    isam said:


    Who said I disliked the site?

    I am just correcting Mike's errors

    You could set up a rival blog with an eerily similar name. That worked out really well before...
    I haven't done that?
    @isam

    There was a poster called Mathew JGP Partridge on here a decade ago, who disagreed with OGH about pretty much everything and was teased mercilessly by many of the posters on here. (He was convinced Obama would not be the Democratic nominee, then he was convinced that the nice centrist McCain would hammer him...) He then set up his own website called The Political Tipster, or somesuch, which sank without a trace.

    I suspect Mathew JGP Partridge would currently be forecasting 55% turnout in the IndyRef, if he were still here...
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,143
    @isam: for the record, you are nothing like Mathew JGP Partridge!
  • Options
    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    @isam - you asked Mike to stop simply quoting Ladbrokes; he quotes Hills and you complain that he should have quoted Ladbrokes. You're living up to the angry-UKIP caricature nicely ;-)
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 41,028
    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:

    Scott_P said:

    isam said:


    Who said I disliked the site?

    I am just correcting Mike's errors

    You could set up a rival blog with an eerily similar name. That worked out really well before...
    I haven't done that?
    @isam

    There was a poster called Mathew JGP Partridge on here a decade ago, who disagreed with OGH about pretty much everything and was teased mercilessly by many of the posters on here. (He was convinced Obama would not be the Democratic nominee, then he was convinced that the nice centrist McCain would hammer him...) He then set up his own website called The Political Tipster, or somesuch, which sank without a trace.

    I suspect Mathew JGP Partridge would currently be forecasting 55% turnout in the IndyRef, if he were still here...
    Who hasn't set up a self indulgent website?

    http://kanolez.tripod.com/index.html
  • Options
    rogerhrogerh Posts: 282
    A much more likely result is that it is the SNP who hold the balance of power- win or lost thye referendum.The constitutional ramifications would be very interesting!
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 41,028
    Tissue_Price said:

    @isam - you asked Mike to stop simply quoting Ladbrokes; he quotes Hills and you complain that he should have quoted Ladbrokes. You're living up to the angry-UKIP caricature nicely ;-)

    Not at all

    I said he should quote the best market price. That's what people do in betting, as you should know going by your monicker

    So if Lads are 4/5 best price quote them.. Mike quoted 4/7 WH to suit his agenda
    Lads are EVS Lab to win the Euros Mike quoted them.. WH are 6/5.. he should have quoted that
  • Options
    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,060
    Scrap's ad hoc trading update... now up circa £300 on paper... after down £5k at one stage.

    Time to save the extension fund and bale out.... nope!
  • Options
    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    The YouGov Wales poll write up makes some 2015 seat predictions.

    "Labour: 31 (holding the 26 seats won in 2010, plus gaining: Arfon, Cardiff Central, Cardiff North, Carmarthen West & South Pembrokeshire, and the Vale of Glamorgan)

    Conservative: 6 (losing Cardiff North, Carmarthen West & South Pembrokeshire, and the Vale of Glamorgan to Labour, but gaining Brecon and Radnor from the Liberal Democrats)

    LibDems: 1 (holding Ceredigion, but losing Brecon and Radnor to the Conservatives and Cardiff Central to Labour)

    Plaid: 2 (holding Dwyfor Meirionydd and Carmarthen East & Dinefwr, but losing Arfon to Labour)"

    http://blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/electionsinwales/2014/04/24/a-new-voting-intention-poll-in-wales/
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,014
    edited April 2014
    The 4/7 price is too short, Ladbrokes 4/5 should be the price presented.
  • Options
    peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,875
    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:

    Scott_P said:

    isam said:


    Who said I disliked the site?

    I am just correcting Mike's errors

    You could set up a rival blog with an eerily similar name. That worked out really well before...
    I haven't done that?
    @isam

    There was a poster called Mathew JGP Partridge on here a decade ago, who disagreed with OGH about pretty much everything and was teased mercilessly by many of the posters on here. (He was convinced Obama would not be the Democratic nominee, then he was convinced that the nice centrist McCain would hammer him...) He then set up his own website called The Political Tipster, or somesuch, which sank without a trace.

    I suspect Mathew JGP Partridge would currently be forecasting 55% turnout in the IndyRef, if he were still here...
    Yes, there have certainly been a fair few oddballs on here over the years, that's for sure. Thank God I and a few others are normal.

  • Options
    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,060
    Spurs footie manager trading hedge question?

    With £25 on Moyes at 40-1, now just 11/2 how do I capture this with no exchanges to lay Moyes going to the Lane. Bet on Pochetino with a few hundred on that? V imperfect though as so many other possible candidates...
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    SophieBSophieB Posts: 5
    isam said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    @isam - you asked Mike to stop simply quoting Ladbrokes; he quotes Hills and you complain that he should have quoted Ladbrokes. You're living up to the angry-UKIP caricature nicely ;-)

    Not at all

    I said he should quote the best market price. That's what people do in betting, as you should know going by your monicker

    So if Lads are 4/5 best price quote them.. Mike quoted 4/7 WH to suit his agenda
    Lads are EVS Lab to win the Euros Mike quoted them.. WH are 6/5.. he should have quoted that
  • Options
    SophieBSophieB Posts: 5
    Agreed
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    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    isam said:


    The whole thread is just plain wrong

    OGH seems to be making three points in his thread:

    (1) Farage has claimed UKIP will hold the balance of power after the next GE
    (2) The betting markets suggest that it's far from nailed-on that UKIP will even win a single seat at the GE
    (3) UKIP is the least liked and most disliked of the 4 biggest parties

    Which part is "just plain wrong"?
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,014
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Spurs footie manager trading hedge question?

    With £25 on Moyes at 40-1, now just 11/2 how do I capture this with no exchanges to lay Moyes going to the Lane. Bet on Pochetino with a few hundred on that? V imperfect though as so many other possible candidates...

    http://www.betfair.com/exchange/football/market?id=1.113612220

    David Moyes

    Last price matched: 6.8

    Stick £100 up at 8-1 and see if someone bites ?
  • Options
    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Farage is right - him and his loons could hold the balance of power right up until election day - when a pro Europe govt gets in and denies them a referendum.

    Then as now they will be as powerless as ever.
  • Options
    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Neil said:

    isam said:


    The whole thread is just plain wrong

    OGH seems to be making three points in his thread:

    (1) Farage has claimed UKIP will hold the balance of power after the next GE
    (2) The betting markets suggest that it's far from nailed-on that UKIP will even win a single seat at the GE
    (3) UKIP is the least liked and most disliked of the 4 biggest parties

    Which part is "just plain wrong"?
    3.

  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited April 2014
    Presumably, if UKIP did hold the balance of power in the next parliament, they'd try to use it to ensure there was an EU In/Out referendum by (say) the end of 2017.

    Err...
  • Options
    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    anotherDave said:

    Neil said:

    isam said:


    The whole thread is just plain wrong

    OGH seems to be making three points in his thread:

    (1) Farage has claimed UKIP will hold the balance of power after the next GE
    (2) The betting markets suggest that it's far from nailed-on that UKIP will even win a single seat at the GE
    (3) UKIP is the least liked and most disliked of the 4 biggest parties

    Which part is "just plain wrong"?
    3.

    He has supported that contention with reference to a recent poll.
  • Options
    QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,958
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Presumably, if UKIP did hold the balance of power in the next parliament, they'd try to use it to ensure there was an EU In/Out referendum by (say) the end of 2017.

    Err...

    Remember, UKIP don't believe the Tories will hold one even if they win. They still distrust Cameron due to the 'cast iron pledge' on the Lisbon Treaty.
  • Options
    QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,958
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Scrap's ad hoc trading update... now up circa £300 on paper... after down £5k at one stage.

    Time to save the extension fund and bale out.... nope!

    Trading what, out of interest?
  • Options
    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    edited April 2014
    Neil said:

    anotherDave said:

    Neil said:

    isam said:


    The whole thread is just plain wrong

    OGH seems to be making three points in his thread:

    (1) Farage has claimed UKIP will hold the balance of power after the next GE
    (2) The betting markets suggest that it's far from nailed-on that UKIP will even win a single seat at the GE
    (3) UKIP is the least liked and most disliked of the 4 biggest parties

    Which part is "just plain wrong"?
    3.

    He has supported that contention with reference to a recent poll.
    A March poll. Which I linked to below. It had UKIP @ 9%, 3 points below the LDs, which I think makes it an outlier.

  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,644
    edited April 2014
    anotherDave said:

    Neil said:

    anotherDave said:

    Neil said:

    isam said:


    The whole thread is just plain wrong

    OGH seems to be making three points in his thread:

    (1) Farage has claimed UKIP will hold the balance of power after the next GE
    (2) The betting markets suggest that it's far from nailed-on that UKIP will even win a single seat at the GE
    (3) UKIP is the least liked and most disliked of the 4 biggest parties

    Which part is "just plain wrong"?
    3.

    He has supported that contention with reference to a recent poll.
    A March poll. Which I linked to below. It had UKIP @ 9%, 3 points below the LDs, which I think makes it an outlier.

    Calling the gold standard of British polling an outlier is interesting.

    I know that was before four party politics no one understands that the British public views Farage and UKIP as the greatest thing since well the Cleggasm.
  • Options
    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,060
    Pulpstar said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Spurs footie manager trading hedge question?

    With £25 on Moyes at 40-1, now just 11/2 how do I capture this with no exchanges to lay Moyes going to the Lane. Bet on Pochetino with a few hundred on that? V imperfect though as so many other possible candidates...

    http://www.betfair.com/exchange/football/market?id=1.113612220

    David Moyes

    Last price matched: 6.8

    Stick £100 up at 8-1 and see if someone bites ?
    Ok - got it! Hadn't seen that market for some reason. Cheers.
  • Options
    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    anotherDave said:

    Neil said:

    anotherDave said:

    Neil said:

    isam said:


    The whole thread is just plain wrong

    OGH seems to be making three points in his thread:

    (1) Farage has claimed UKIP will hold the balance of power after the next GE
    (2) The betting markets suggest that it's far from nailed-on that UKIP will even win a single seat at the GE
    (3) UKIP is the least liked and most disliked of the 4 biggest parties

    Which part is "just plain wrong"?
    3.

    He has supported that contention with reference to a recent poll.
    A March poll. Which I linked to below. It had UKIP @ 9%, 3 points below the LDs, which I think makes it an outlier.

    Outlier or not I think the general point is relevant so calling the entire thread "just plain wrong" seems over the top to me.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    Quincel said:

    Remember, UKIP don't believe the Tories will hold one even if they win.

    In that case they are prize idiots. However, since I don't think they are prize idiots, I conclude that they don't want a referendum, no doubt because they think they will lose it, or possibly because they just enjoy ranting.

  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,014
    @SophieB Welcome to the site.

    I agree, the implied 7/4 for UKIP to win at least one seat at the next G would be cracking value, but it can't be got.

    13-10 is the best price with 888sport/Unibet for UKIP to win a seat, combining that with Ladbrokes 4/5 on the opposite gives a 99% market indicating that whilst this is a poor arbitrage (1% return on cash in 1 year), and one of the prices possibly has a smidgen of value about it.

    13-10 for UKIP to win a seat is possibly JUST about value...
  • Options
    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    I wonder if the Independent quote is missing an 'if'.

    23 April Independent:
    According to Mr Farage, a strong showing by his “people’s army” will mean neither Labour nor the Conservatives will be able to “rat on the deal” of an in/out European referendum. Moreover, at the next general election Ukip would “hold the balance of power as Nick Clegg did in 2010,” he added. “There will be a referendum then.”

    20 September Telegraph
    “The only way you get a referendum is to make sure there are enough Ukip MPs in Westminster in 2015 holding the balance of power. I tell you what – there will be a referendum then.”

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/10323311/Ukip-could-hold-the-balance-of-power-in-2015.html
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,644
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Spurs footie manager trading hedge question?

    With £25 on Moyes at 40-1, now just 11/2 how do I capture this with no exchanges to lay Moyes going to the Lane. Bet on Pochetino with a few hundred on that? V imperfect though as so many other possible candidates...

    http://www.betfair.com/exchange/football/market?id=1.113612220

    David Moyes

    Last price matched: 6.8

    Stick £100 up at 8-1 and see if someone bites ?
    Ok - got it! Hadn't seen that market for some reason. Cheers.
    I'm on Ancelotti as next Man U manager and Van Gaal and Pochettinio as next Spurs boss.

  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,978
    This is a blog, not a news site. I never understand why people get so exercised about perceived biases that Mike or other folk that write thread headers might have. They are a basis from which to have a discussion. They are not meant to be read as journalism, objective or otherwise. They are opinions.
  • Options
    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    UKIP's big push over the last few days seems to have had little effect on the labour voters it is aiming to win over, if the polls are anything to go by.

    They seem to have won over a handful more tories, but that's about it.
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    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    SophieB said:

    Agreed

    Welcome to the site Sophie. I was of course just gently winding isam up. But more seriously, Mike's entitled to have his own agenda if he wants; one of the chief strengths of this site is the variety of commenters who will point out if & where they think leading articles (penned by whoever) are wrong.

    Either way, to hold the balance of power is going to need upwards of 25 MPs, at an absolute minimum. Regardless of which particular price you use, the betting markets suggest that 1 is going to be a mild stretch.
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    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,060
    Quincel said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Scrap's ad hoc trading update... now up circa £300 on paper... after down £5k at one stage.

    Time to save the extension fund and bale out.... nope!

    Trading what, out of interest?
    I've tried knife catching the enhanced annuity providers after the Budget shock... it's proving an exciting ride as the stake money was for our extension....
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,758
    On 'Look North' last night, Mr Farage was asked if he would resign if UKIP failed to win a parliamentary seat in the North East. He didn't give a direct answer, suggesting he's not expecting a seat.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,014
    Tissue_Price said:

    SophieB said:

    Agreed

    Welcome to the site Sophie. I was of course just gently winding isam up. But more seriously, Mike's entitled to have his own agenda if he wants; one of the chief strengths of this site is the variety of commenters who will point out if & where they think leading articles (penned by whoever) are wrong.

    Either way, to hold the balance of power is going to need upwards of 25 MPs, at an absolute minimum. Regardless of which particular price you use, the betting markets suggest that 1 is going to be a mild stretch.
    OTOH 76.11% of the bets are on UKIP gaining at least 1 seat...

    Ages ago Mike pointed out UKIP 2+ seats GE2015 at 8-1. That was a good value bet.
  • Options
    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    or possibly because they just enjoy ranting.

    One reason why they are comfortable with Ed getting in? the possibilities for moaning, ranting, foaming and carping will be endless.

    A curmudgeon's paradise.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,644
    SandyRentool said:

    On 'Look North' last night, Mr Farage was asked if he would resign if UKIP failed to win a parliamentary seat in the North East. He didn't give a direct answer, suggesting he's not expecting a seat.

    Sandy! I've missed you.

    Shall we diss Middlesbrough?

  • Options
    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,060
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Spurs footie manager trading hedge question?

    With £25 on Moyes at 40-1, now just 11/2 how do I capture this with no exchanges to lay Moyes going to the Lane. Bet on Pochetino with a few hundred on that? V imperfect though as so many other possible candidates...

    http://www.betfair.com/exchange/football/market?id=1.113612220

    David Moyes

    Last price matched: 6.8

    Stick £100 up at 8-1 and see if someone bites ?
    Ok - got it! Hadn't seen that market for some reason. Cheers.
    I'm on Ancelotti as next Man U manager and Van Gaal and Pochettinio as next Spurs boss.

    Astounded you didn't follow me with my Wenger bet.... 250-1!
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 41,028
    Neil said:

    isam said:


    The whole thread is just plain wrong

    OGH seems to be making three points in his thread:

    (1) Farage has claimed UKIP will hold the balance of power after the next GE
    (2) The betting markets suggest that it's far from nailed-on that UKIP will even win a single seat at the GE
    (3) UKIP is the least liked and most disliked of the 4 biggest parties

    Which part is "just plain wrong"?
    Well you have phrased that in a way that is hard to argue... well done you

    3 is plain wrong because other polls show they are the most popular party

    The Headline says that the markets have yet to move in UKIPs direction. That is plain wrong... every market has

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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    @taffys - Good point!
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,014
    SandyRentool said:

    On 'Look North' last night, Mr Farage was asked if he would resign if UKIP failed to win a parliamentary seat in the North East. He didn't give a direct answer, suggesting he's not expecting a seat.

    Not really UKIP territory.

    I do wonder if UKIP may well pick up alot of second places in the North where Labour wins though.
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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    SandyRentool said:

    On 'Look North' last night, Mr Farage was asked if he would resign if UKIP failed to win a parliamentary seat in the North East. He didn't give a direct answer, suggesting he's not expecting a seat.

    Hartlepool is their only slight chance in the North East, and even that would surely have to be a long-term target at best.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,014
    taffys said:

    or possibly because they just enjoy ranting.

    One reason why they are comfortable with Ed getting in? the possibilities for moaning, ranting, foaming and carping will be endless.

    A curmudgeon's paradise.

    Will UKIP gain in strength during Ed's premiership though or will people switch back to the Conservatives ?
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,644
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Spurs footie manager trading hedge question?

    With £25 on Moyes at 40-1, now just 11/2 how do I capture this with no exchanges to lay Moyes going to the Lane. Bet on Pochetino with a few hundred on that? V imperfect though as so many other possible candidates...

    http://www.betfair.com/exchange/football/market?id=1.113612220

    David Moyes

    Last price matched: 6.8

    Stick £100 up at 8-1 and see if someone bites ?
    Ok - got it! Hadn't seen that market for some reason. Cheers.
    I'm on Ancelotti as next Man U manager and Van Gaal and Pochettinio as next Spurs boss.

    Astounded you didn't follow me with my Wenger bet.... 250-1!
    Aww missed that.

    I see Moyes going to either the Barcodes or Celtic.
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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited April 2014
    Pulpstar said:

    taffys said:

    or possibly because they just enjoy ranting.

    One reason why they are comfortable with Ed getting in? the possibilities for moaning, ranting, foaming and carping will be endless.

    A curmudgeon's paradise.

    Will UKIP gain in strength during Ed's premiership though or will people switch back to the Conservatives ?
    Would depend who the Tory leader is. If they pick Michael Gove or George Osborne (who would probably further cement the impression of the Tories being rich weirdos who just want to shower their mates with tax cuts and snuggle up with big businesses) then UKIP will probably hold onto most of those Tory defectors.
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    isamisam Posts: 41,028
    SouthamObserver said:

    This is a blog, not a news site. I never understand why people get so exercised about perceived biases that Mike or other folk that write thread headers might have. They are a basis from which to have a discussion. They are not meant to be read as journalism, objective or otherwise. They are opinions.

    I know you and I have argued on here and agree on little, but please don't be blind on this.

    You don't talk about betting so I guess you may not know the betting percentages, but what Mike has effectively said is

    "People have said the price of milk is falling, but Waitrose are still 63p a pint. This shows milk prices are stable"

    When other supermarkets have slashed the price to 55p

    In the betting world, when people talk about what price something is, they always use the best price available, anything else would be nonsensical and misleading. It just doesn't happen.

    But Mike always uses the price that makes it look bad for UKIP, and being a betting man, know he is doing so.

    Of course biases and opinions inform the debate, but putting up misleading prices in the thread headers is just silly


  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,806
    taffys said:

    A curmudgeon's paradise.

    Imagine what it'll be like with:
    - A 'No' vote in Scotland
    - a UKIP vote share greater than the Lib Dems but zero seats
    - an Ed Miliband government....
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,014
    edited April 2014
    anotherDave said:

    I wonder if the Independent quote is missing an 'if'.

    23 April Independent:
    According to Mr Farage, a strong showing by his “people’s army” will mean neither Labour nor the Conservatives will be able to “rat on the deal” of an in/out European referendum. Moreover, at the next general election Ukip would “hold the balance of power as Nick Clegg did in 2010,” he added. “There will be a referendum then.”

    20 September Telegraph
    “The only way you get a referendum is to make sure there are enough Ukip MPs in Westminster in 2015 holding the balance of power. I tell you what – there will be a referendum then.”

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/10323311/Ukip-could-hold-the-balance-of-power-in-2015.html

    UKIP holding the balance of power in terms of seats is ... optimistic.

    In terms of vote switch shares in individual constituencies, may well happen. As the venerable R Nabavi notes, they could well hand Ed M the keys to No 10.
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    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Quincel said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Scrap's ad hoc trading update... now up circa £300 on paper... after down £5k at one stage.

    Time to save the extension fund and bale out.... nope!

    Trading what, out of interest?
    I've tried knife catching the enhanced annuity providers after the Budget shock... it's proving an exciting ride as the stake money was for our extension....
    Does Mrs Scrapheap know about the rollercoaster ride she's been on yet?
  • Options
    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,060
    Neil said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Quincel said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Scrap's ad hoc trading update... now up circa £300 on paper... after down £5k at one stage.

    Time to save the extension fund and bale out.... nope!

    Trading what, out of interest?
    I've tried knife catching the enhanced annuity providers after the Budget shock... it's proving an exciting ride as the stake money was for our extension....
    Does Mrs Scrapheap know about the rollercoaster ride she's been on yet?
    A. I'm still breathing.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,644
    Neil said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Quincel said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Scrap's ad hoc trading update... now up circa £300 on paper... after down £5k at one stage.

    Time to save the extension fund and bale out.... nope!

    Trading what, out of interest?
    I've tried knife catching the enhanced annuity providers after the Budget shock... it's proving an exciting ride as the stake money was for our extension....
    Does Mrs Scrapheap know about the rollercoaster ride she's been on yet?
    That's a bit personal.

  • Options
    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Neil said:

    anotherDave said:

    Neil said:

    anotherDave said:

    Neil said:

    isam said:


    The whole thread is just plain wrong

    OGH seems to be making three points in his thread:

    (1) Farage has claimed UKIP will hold the balance of power after the next GE
    (2) The betting markets suggest that it's far from nailed-on that UKIP will even win a single seat at the GE
    (3) UKIP is the least liked and most disliked of the 4 biggest parties

    Which part is "just plain wrong"?
    3.

    He has supported that contention with reference to a recent poll.
    A March poll. Which I linked to below. It had UKIP @ 9%, 3 points below the LDs, which I think makes it an outlier.

    Outlier or not I think the general point is relevant so calling the entire thread "just plain wrong" seems over the top to me.
    The general point is that UKIP doesn't attract swing voters, which is nonsense.

    The polls show swing voters moving between Con/Lab/UKIP and (for whatever reason) ignore the LDs.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#Graphical_summary

    The most recent constituency poll we've had, Eastleigh, shows the same thing. 2013 swing voters move between Con/Lab/UKIP (mostly towards UKIP), but only away from the LDs.

    http://survation.com/still-a-3-way-marginal-new-polling-in-eastleigh-constituency-survation-for-alan-bown/

    That is not a picture of UKIP as the 'least liked, most disliked' party.

  • Options
    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,060
    Mrs. S is still recovering from her unexpected present of my paying for her to be a member of the Tory party....
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,154
    Pulpstar said:


    UKIP holding the balance of power in terms of seats is ... optimistic.

    In terms of vote switch shares in individual constituencies, may well happen.

    The greatest risk of the introduction of the Euro and greater transfer of powers to Brussels is posed by UKIP getting votes but not seats. And it will all happen without the people of (what is left of) the UK having a vote:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-26538420

    Vote UKIP, get Brussels. Nigel Farage is the EU's useful idiot.
  • Options
    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    anotherDave said:


    That is not a picture of UKIP as the 'least liked, most disliked' party.

    But the ICM data is.
  • Options
    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    edited April 2014
    Carlotta

    Perhaps the main parties' line of attack on UKIP as racist/xenophobic/loony is wrong.

    Maybe UKIP should be portrayed as the party of those who think nothing is ever right, and nothing is ever their fault.
  • Options
    felixfelix Posts: 15,125
    I think all the polls until the Euros are over are likely to be skewed heavily towards UKIP and against the Tories. What happens a month or two later is very hard to predict - if I was a gambler I'd not like to bet on it, although my instinct leads me to doubt if the UKIP surge will endure. The next few months as we move closer to the GE will clearly pressure both UKIP and Labour. I think the Tories will benefit but I suspect the LDs may not, all of which makes the important election very hard to call.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,014
    Sort of on topic - Where DID Mike get that photo from !
  • Options
    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Danny565 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    taffys said:

    or possibly because they just enjoy ranting.

    One reason why they are comfortable with Ed getting in? the possibilities for moaning, ranting, foaming and carping will be endless.

    A curmudgeon's paradise.

    Will UKIP gain in strength during Ed's premiership though or will people switch back to the Conservatives ?
    Would depend who the Tory leader is. If they pick Michael Gove or George Osborne (who would probably further cement the impression of the Tories being rich weirdos who just want to shower their mates with tax cuts and snuggle up with big businesses) then UKIP will probably hold onto most of those Tory defectors.
    I think the 2015 UKIP result will be important too. For momentum, it would help if they could point at one/some Westminster wins.

    A good vote share and no Westminster wins might be enough, but wins would be heaps better.
  • Options
    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Mrs. S is still recovering from her unexpected present of my paying for her to be a member of the Tory party....

    What a romantic Valentine's Day present!

  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 41,028
    Would like to say I have no personal dislike of Mike and wouldn't wan't it to appear that I had. I'll buy him a pint next week!

    Just think it should be standard to use the best market price when talking about betting moves else it is easy to assume partiality, which is fair enough in prose but not in stats in my opinion
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    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,060
    Neil said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Mrs. S is still recovering from her unexpected present of my paying for her to be a member of the Tory party....

    What a romantic Valentine's Day present!

    How dare you!

    It was her birthday present.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,644
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Neil said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Mrs. S is still recovering from her unexpected present of my paying for her to be a member of the Tory party....

    What a romantic Valentine's Day present!

    How dare you!

    It was her birthday present.
    I once gave a bottle of toilet duck to my then girlfriend on Valentine's Day.

    I had promised her a gift no other lady had ever received on Valentine's Day.
  • Options
    SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    @rcs1000

    The best bit about Matthew Partridge was when he was utterly convinced John McCain would be able to appoint the pro-choice former Democrat Joe Lieberman as his veep nominee.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,644
    Pulpstar said:

    Sort of on topic - Where DID Mike get that photo from !

    Is the auto-screen grab from the Independent article that twitter does so wonderfully well.
  • Options
    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Neil said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Mrs. S is still recovering from her unexpected present of my paying for her to be a member of the Tory party....

    What a romantic Valentine's Day present!

    How dare you!

    It was her birthday present.
    I once gave a bottle of toilet duck to my then girlfriend on Valentine's Day.

    I had promised her a gift no other lady had ever received on Valentine's Day.
    How effective a bludgeon is a bottle of toilet duck?
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    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    Strange isn't it that OGH has been telling us for yonks that UKIP are irrelevant. Cameron described UKIP, and thus its supporters, as loonies, fruitcakes and closet racists. Today, I read that Clegg is talking about xenophobes. Yet we seem to have as many threads dominated by these irrelevant, nutty, xenophobes as we do by Scottish independence. Why should that be?
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,644
    anotherDave said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Neil said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Mrs. S is still recovering from her unexpected present of my paying for her to be a member of the Tory party....

    What a romantic Valentine's Day present!

    How dare you!

    It was her birthday present.
    I once gave a bottle of toilet duck to my then girlfriend on Valentine's Day.

    I had promised her a gift no other lady had ever received on Valentine's Day.
    How effective a bludgeon is a bottle of toilet duck?
    Not very.
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Neil said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Mrs. S is still recovering from her unexpected present of my paying for her to be a member of the Tory party....

    What a romantic Valentine's Day present!

    How dare you!

    It was her birthday present.
    I once gave a bottle of toilet duck to my then girlfriend on Valentine's Day.

    I had promised her a gift no other lady had ever received on Valentine's Day.
    I note she is your "then girlfriend". How long did the relationship last after that...?
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 41,028
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Neil said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Mrs. S is still recovering from her unexpected present of my paying for her to be a member of the Tory party....

    What a romantic Valentine's Day present!

    How dare you!

    It was her birthday present.
    I once gave a bottle of toilet duck to my then girlfriend on Valentine's Day.

    I had promised her a gift no other lady had ever received on Valentine's Day.
    I met a girl in a pub in Camden and asked what she wanted to drink.. she said "surprise me" so I got her a pint of tap water for laugh

    One of those things I wish I was making up and hadn't really done
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,644
    Charles said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Neil said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Mrs. S is still recovering from her unexpected present of my paying for her to be a member of the Tory party....

    What a romantic Valentine's Day present!

    How dare you!

    It was her birthday present.
    I once gave a bottle of toilet duck to my then girlfriend on Valentine's Day.

    I had promised her a gift no other lady had ever received on Valentine's Day.
    I note she is your "then girlfriend". How long did the relationship last after that...?
    Another two years.

    I didn't just give her a bottle of toilet duck. There was some jewellery and shoes as well.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,016
    F1: trying to get some writing done but it's a bit tricky so I've been perusing Twitter. A suggestion Ferrari will have a ton of updates has been aired (for Spain). This would include new rear and front wings, nose, floor, sidepods and software which would add 10-15bhp.

    That's quite a lot, if even half accurate, especially after they made a significant step forward in China.
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    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    edited April 2014
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Mrs. S is still recovering from her unexpected present of my paying for her to be a member of the Tory party....

    I know what you mean. A couple of Christmases ago I gave Mrs Llama a stainless-steel garden spade. She was so thrilled.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,644
    Morris_Dancer said:

    F1: trying to get some writing done but it's a bit tricky so I've been perusing Twitter. A suggestion Ferrari will have a ton of updates has been aired (for Spain). This would include new rear and front wings, nose, floor, sidepods and software which would add 10-15bhp.

    That's quite a lot, if even half accurate, especially after they made a significant step forward in China.

    What has gone wrong at McLaren?

    The Times the other day reported that Ron Dennis was fuming at their ineptness.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,644
    I know I'm the last person to criticise other people's fashion sense, but Christ on a bike, did Nigel Farage get dressed in the dark?

    Nigel Farage ‏@Nigel_Farage 1h

    There are two things in life I can't bear. David Cameron and unpolished shoes.

    pic.twitter.com/F1LDs1d7YE
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    volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078
    Lots of very negative comments in the media today again toward UKIP.As well as Farage being described as "a pustule of resentment" in the Grauniad,"Feminists Against UKIP" have started protesting too.These are not people to be taken lightly.
    From experience,once the feminists are out to get you,your cause is hopeless.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,146
    HurstLlama said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Mrs. S is still recovering from her unexpected present of my paying for her to be a member of the Tory party....

    I know what you mean. A couple of Christmases ago I gave Mrs Llama a stainless-steel garden spade. She was so thrilled.
    I've got a similar story. I won't give all the details, but let's just say:
    Gift of a frying pan + a girlfriend + sarcy comment = bruise.

    We're still friends... just ...
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,016
    Mr. Eagles, the Ron Dennis has not been designed for failure.

    In all seriousness, they've dropped off since the first race, but were on for a double points finish when reliability cost them in Bahrain (incidentally, if they hadn't suffered that Ferrari would've scored 0 points despite both cars finishing).

    A clever chap here posted that McLaren could make up as much as 1.4s with a sizeable package of updates in Spain.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,644
    Gulp. I agree with Dan Hodges.

    I'm still a nervous wreck after our last three matches.

    Everyone stop going on about Liverpool winning the league. You're jinxing it.

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danhodges/100268953/everyone-stop-going-on-about-liverpool-winning-the-league-youre-jinxing-it/
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    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,060
    HurstLlama said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Mrs. S is still recovering from her unexpected present of my paying for her to be a member of the Tory party....

    I know what you mean. A couple of Christmases ago I gave Mrs Llama a stainless-steel garden spade. She was so thrilled.
    I thought a handheld hoover was a great idea for Xmas 2011.... apparantly it wasn't... even to this day.... constantly.....
This discussion has been closed.