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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Four weeks to go until Iowa and the oldest two contenders domi

SystemSystem Posts: 12,553
edited January 2020 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Four weeks to go until Iowa and the oldest two contenders dominate

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  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 31,502
    edited January 2020
    Warren is not completely out of it on those numbers. What we cannot be sure of is whether voters really are changing their minds every few days or if American pollsters are just not very good.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,946
    edited January 2020
    2nd like Bernie or Joe
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    Remember folks, last time the guy with the biggest betting surge after Iowa was the one in third...
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 9,130
    edited January 2020
    Harry Lime-ish
    .. just got pipped
  • TheGreenMachineTheGreenMachine Posts: 1,097
    Who's everyone's favourite UK politician, one male and one female from each party?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 66,616
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Warren is not completely out of it on those numbers. What we cannot be sure of is whether voters really are changing their minds every few days or if American pollsters are just not very good.

    Iowa is hard to poll. It's a caucus. With a threshold (15%?)
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Toby with his finger on the fucking pulse here and no mistake

    https://twitter.com/toadmeister/status/1213436838985289730?s=19
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Warren is not completely out of it on those numbers. What we cannot be sure of is whether voters really are changing their minds every few days or if American pollsters are just not very good.

    Warren will finish third and become odds on favourite.
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453
    Alistair said:

    Toby with his finger on the fucking pulse here and no mistake

    https://twitter.com/toadmeister/status/1213436838985289730?s=19

    The working class north will be up in arms I'm sure........😜
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,551
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Warren is not completely out of it on those numbers. What we cannot be sure of is whether voters really are changing their minds every few days or if American pollsters are just not very good.

    Warren has an excellent on the ground operation in Iowa, so it's entirely possible that she outperforms her numbers. She also looks very well organised in Nevada, which is another caucus state. I think she's a buy here.

    Amazing to think that I was able to lay Clinton at 13 a month or so ago. It's still essentially impossible for her to get the nomination (and Bloomberg is pretty unlikely too). This means that all the top four are probably buys. (With the caveat that Sanders has the hardest path.)
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 25,084
    edited January 2020
    Alistair said:

    Toby with his finger on the fucking pulse here and no mistake https://twitter.com/toadmeister/status/1213436838985289730?s=19

    I assume the reason is i) it's already been transposed into English law, and/or ii) it's part of the transition deal. I'm sure somebody will correct me if that's not true.

  • NorthernPowerhouseNorthernPowerhouse Posts: 557
    viewcode said:

    Alistair said:

    Toby with his finger on the fucking pulse here and no mistake https://twitter.com/toadmeister/status/1213436838985289730?s=19

    I assume the reason is i) it's already been transposed into English law, and/or ii) it's part of the transition deal. I'm sure somebody will correct me if that's not true.

    Transition = comply with all rules as if still a member.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 66,616
    NYT:

    "Tehran said in a statement that its nuclear program would “have no limitations” on enriching uranium."
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    TheGreenMachine said:

    Who's everyone's favourite UK politician, one male and one female from each party?

    SNP Andrew Wilson, Shirley-Anne Somerville
    Con Peter Duncan, err
    Lab Richard Leonard, Johann Lamont
    LD John Farquhar Munro, Jo Swinson
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,446
    edited January 2020
    Looks like a Sanders v Biden nomination race with Sanders likely winning New Hampshire, Biden South Carolina and Iowa neck and neck. Sanders as the left liberal standard bearer, Biden as the moderate.

    Of course against Sanders or Biden Trump could paint himself as the 'youthful' candidate, being younger than both of them.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,993
    Alistair said:

    Toby with his finger on the fucking pulse here and no mistake

    https://twitter.com/toadmeister/status/1213436838985289730?s=19

    Because we're out but not yet determined by how much, hence transition as others speculate. There'll probably be lots like this to please the Farages of the world.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,713
    Aren't we all forgetting about Steyer ?!?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 66,616
    Alistair said:

    Toby with his finger on the fucking pulse here and no mistake

    https://twitter.com/toadmeister/status/1213436838985289730?s=19

    Check the facts old toad.

    Because it was added to UK law in 2016.

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 66,616
    https://ash.org.uk/media-and-news/press-releases-media-and-news/new-restrictions-on-tobacco-products-come-into-full-force-on-21st-may-2017/
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 66,616
    Pulpstar said:

    Aren't we all forgetting about Steyer ?!?

    Yes.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 66,616
    HYUFD said:

    Looks like a Sanders v Biden nomination race with Sanders likely winning New Hampshire, Biden South Carolina and Iowa neck and neck. Sanders as the left liberal standard bearer, Biden as the moderate.

    Of course against Sanders or Biden Trump could paint himself as the 'youthful' candidate, being younger than both of them.

    The Dems activists must be out of their minds if they think Sanders can win back the WH.

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 66,616
    kle4 said:

    Alistair said:

    Toby with his finger on the fucking pulse here and no mistake

    https://twitter.com/toadmeister/status/1213436838985289730?s=19

    Because we're out but not yet determined by how much, hence transition as others speculate. There'll probably be lots like this to please the Farages of the world.
    As I understand it, this is already UK law. So needs a new law to undo the implementation of the Directive.

    Can the Toad explain why he thinks it is not a good policy?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,713
    rottenborough said:

    HYUFD said:

    Looks like a Sanders v Biden nomination race with Sanders likely winning New Hampshire, Biden South Carolina and Iowa neck and neck. Sanders as the left liberal standard bearer, Biden as the moderate.

    Of course against Sanders or Biden Trump could paint himself as the 'youthful' candidate, being younger than both of them.

    The Dems activists must be out of their minds if they think Sanders can win back the WH.

    Black, moderate and old Dems should see Biden home
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 66,616
    rcs1000 said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Warren is not completely out of it on those numbers. What we cannot be sure of is whether voters really are changing their minds every few days or if American pollsters are just not very good.

    Warren has an excellent on the ground operation in Iowa, so it's entirely possible that she outperforms her numbers. She also looks very well organised in Nevada, which is another caucus state. I think she's a buy here.

    Amazing to think that I was able to lay Clinton at 13 a month or so ago. It's still essentially impossible for her to get the nomination (and Bloomberg is pretty unlikely too). This means that all the top four are probably buys. (With the caveat that Sanders has the hardest path.)
    Clinton is not totally impossible is it? Contested convention?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,985
    rottenborough said:

    Alistair said:

    Toby with his finger on the fucking pulse here and no mistake

    https://twitter.com/toadmeister/status/1213436838985289730?s=19

    Check the facts old toad.

    Because it was added to UK law in 2016.

    Indeed we voted for it. Only Poland opposed it.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,985
    Klobuchar staying in the game :)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,993
    rottenborough said:

    kle4 said:

    Alistair said:

    Toby with his finger on the fucking pulse here and no mistake

    https://twitter.com/toadmeister/status/1213436838985289730?s=19

    Because we're out but not yet determined by how much, hence transition as others speculate. There'll probably be lots like this to please the Farages of the world.
    As I understand it, this is already UK law. So needs a new law to undo the implementation of the Directive.

    Can the Toad explain why he thinks it is not a good policy?
    I doubt it. He probably doesnt know that UK law implements these things.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 66,616
    kle4 said:

    rottenborough said:

    kle4 said:

    Alistair said:

    Toby with his finger on the fucking pulse here and no mistake

    https://twitter.com/toadmeister/status/1213436838985289730?s=19

    Because we're out but not yet determined by how much, hence transition as others speculate. There'll probably be lots like this to please the Farages of the world.
    As I understand it, this is already UK law. So needs a new law to undo the implementation of the Directive.

    Can the Toad explain why he thinks it is not a good policy?
    I doubt it. He probably doesnt know that UK law implements these things.
    Yep. And judging by the squillions of tweets in comment to his original post, most of twitter does not either.

    Give me strength.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 25,084
    rottenborough said:

    kle4 said:

    Alistair said:

    Toby with his finger on the fucking pulse here and no mistake

    https://twitter.com/toadmeister/status/1213436838985289730?s=19

    Because we're out but not yet determined by how much, hence transition as others speculate. There'll probably be lots like this to please the Farages of the world.
    As I understand it, this is already UK law. So needs a new law to undo the implementation of the Directive.

    Can the Toad explain why he thinks it is not a good policy?
    He writes for the Spectator. "Thought" is not necessarily part of the process.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 66,616
    https://twitter.com/darrenpjones/status/1213827561983225856
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,713
    rottenborough said:

    https://twitter.com/darrenpjones/status/1213827561983225856

    I know the fires are bad but are the fires quite THAT bad ?
  • NorthernPowerhouseNorthernPowerhouse Posts: 557
    Pulpstar said:

    rottenborough said:

    https://twitter.com/darrenpjones/status/1213827561983225856

    I know the fires are bad but are the fires quite THAT bad ?
    No. This is fake. It’s based on a rendering of all the fires there’s been in the last few months including the ones that are well and truly put out.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,446
    Pulpstar said:

    rottenborough said:

    HYUFD said:

    Looks like a Sanders v Biden nomination race with Sanders likely winning New Hampshire, Biden South Carolina and Iowa neck and neck. Sanders as the left liberal standard bearer, Biden as the moderate.

    Of course against Sanders or Biden Trump could paint himself as the 'youthful' candidate, being younger than both of them.

    The Dems activists must be out of their minds if they think Sanders can win back the WH.

    Black, moderate and old Dems should see Biden home
    In the South yes, in the North and West less likely
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,601
    TheGreenMachine said:

    Who's everyone's favourite UK politician, one male and one female from each party?

    Ian Bone. Jess Rodham Phillips.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,551
    rottenborough said:

    rcs1000 said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Warren is not completely out of it on those numbers. What we cannot be sure of is whether voters really are changing their minds every few days or if American pollsters are just not very good.

    Warren has an excellent on the ground operation in Iowa, so it's entirely possible that she outperforms her numbers. She also looks very well organised in Nevada, which is another caucus state. I think she's a buy here.

    Amazing to think that I was able to lay Clinton at 13 a month or so ago. It's still essentially impossible for her to get the nomination (and Bloomberg is pretty unlikely too). This means that all the top four are probably buys. (With the caveat that Sanders has the hardest path.)
    Clinton is not totally impossible is it? Contested convention?
    The convention would need to give the nomination to someone who (a) lost to Donald Trump last time, and (b) didn't get any delegates this time around.

    The delegates to the convention are people chosen for their loyalty to Biden or Buttigieg or Sanders or Warren. They wouldn't easily go for another person - especially one who is pretty unpopular in the party.

    The only scenario where it *might* happen would be if Sanders got 40% of the delegates and Bloomberg got 40%, and the party was looking for a middle way that wouldn't result in a split.

    But in those circumstances, I think Michelle Obama would be the likelier off the wall candidate.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,551
    rottenborough said:

    https://twitter.com/darrenpjones/status/1213827561983225856

    What an idiot.

    That's not our planet that a photo of Australia with some fire superimposed on it.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 66,616
    Finland to introduce four-day working week and SIX HOUR days under plans drawn up by 34-year-old prime minister Sanna Marin

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7854449/Finlands-new-Prime-Minister-Sanna-Marin-34-plans-introduce-four-day-working-week.html
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,551
    rottenborough said:

    Finland to introduce four-day working week and SIX HOUR days under plans drawn up by 34-year-old prime minister Sanna Marin

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7854449/Finlands-new-Prime-Minister-Sanna-Marin-34-plans-introduce-four-day-working-week.html

    Because the plans to shorten the work week introduced by the French worked so well.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 25,084
    Pulpstar said:

    rottenborough said:

    https://twitter.com/darrenpjones/status/1213827561983225856

    I know the fires are bad but are the fires quite THAT bad ?
    If you are asking "does this image indicate the cumulative damage caused by the fires", then the answer is "yes".

    If you are asking "is this a photograph of an event at a single moment" then the answer is "no"

    The image is a synthetic image meant to illustrate the fires recorded by NASA’s FIRMS (Satellite data regarding fires) between 2019-12-05 and 2020-01-05. It is not a photograph and the fires are not all burning at once. See https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/australia-fires-iss-image/
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 25,084
    rcs1000 said:

    rottenborough said:

    Finland to introduce four-day working week and SIX HOUR days under plans drawn up by 34-year-old prime minister Sanna Marin

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7854449/Finlands-new-Prime-Minister-Sanna-Marin-34-plans-introduce-four-day-working-week.html

    Because the plans to shorten the work week introduced by the French worked so well.
    Educate me. Did it?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 25,084
    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    rottenborough said:

    HYUFD said:

    Looks like a Sanders v Biden nomination race with Sanders likely winning New Hampshire, Biden South Carolina and Iowa neck and neck. Sanders as the left liberal standard bearer, Biden as the moderate.

    Of course against Sanders or Biden Trump could paint himself as the 'youthful' candidate, being younger than both of them.

    The Dems activists must be out of their minds if they think Sanders can win back the WH.

    Black, moderate and old Dems should see Biden home
    In the South yes, in the North and West less likely
    What about the East and the Middle?

    (sorry, couldn't resist it)
  • NorthernPowerhouseNorthernPowerhouse Posts: 557
    viewcode said:

    rottenborough said:

    kle4 said:

    Alistair said:

    Toby with his finger on the fucking pulse here and no mistake

    https://twitter.com/toadmeister/status/1213436838985289730?s=19

    Because we're out but not yet determined by how much, hence transition as others speculate. There'll probably be lots like this to please the Farages of the world.
    As I understand it, this is already UK law. So needs a new law to undo the implementation of the Directive.

    Can the Toad explain why he thinks it is not a good policy?
    He writes for the Spectator. "Thought" is not necessarily part of the process.
    Seriously? The spectator is first rate comment, with a broad range, but from the right. A right version of the new statesman but not shit, and actually has paying customers.
  • TheGreenMachineTheGreenMachine Posts: 1,097
    StuartDickson said:

    TheGreenMachine said:

    Who's everyone's favourite UK politician, one male and one female from each party?

    SNP Andrew Wilson, Shirley-Anne Somerville
    Con Peter Duncan, err
    Lab Richard Leonard, Johann Lamont
    LD John Farquhar Munro, Jo Swinson
    Thanks, good choices.
  • TheGreenMachineTheGreenMachine Posts: 1,097
    Dura_Ace said:

    TheGreenMachine said:

    Who's everyone's favourite UK politician, one male and one female from each party?

    Ian Bone. Jess Rodham Phillips.
    Thank you.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 25,084
    NorthernPowerhouse said:

    viewcode said:

    rottenborough said:

    kle4 said:

    Alistair said:

    Toby with his finger on the fucking pulse here and no mistake

    https://twitter.com/toadmeister/status/1213436838985289730?s=19

    Because we're out but not yet determined by how much, hence transition as others speculate. There'll probably be lots like this to please the Farages of the world.
    As I understand it, this is already UK law. So needs a new law to undo the implementation of the Directive.

    Can the Toad explain why he thinks it is not a good policy?
    He writes for the Spectator. "Thought" is not necessarily part of the process.
    Seriously? The spectator is first rate comment, with a broad range, but from the right. A right version of the new statesman but not shit, and actually has paying customers.
    Deadly seriously. See previous posts.

    I have this thing against collections of spoilt-brat overfunded underpunched commentariat spouting off whatever groupthink nostrums inhabit their vapid heads at any given moment. Whether it's the Guardian, or the Spectator, or whatever trust-fund care home for upper-middle-class drug-ridden drunken drooling unemployables who can slap a keyboard randomly long enough to produce enough onanistic paragraphs to print. I don't read the New Statesman but I am happy to accept your assertion that it is also shit, and for the same reasons.

    I will however make an exception for James Forsyth (who is useful) and its graphic design (genuinely - its graphs are clear and I try to copy them). No doubt there are other good writers for it but they don't spring to mind. If I want well-written copy I'll come here, not there.

  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453
    Pulpstar said:

    rottenborough said:

    https://twitter.com/darrenpjones/status/1213827561983225856

    I know the fires are bad but are the fires quite THAT bad ?
    Usual twitter hyperbole.

    Replying to

    @darrenpjones

    No it isn’t! This is compiled NASA data of every fire that has burned in Australia over a period of time! Hysterical overreactions are totally counter-productive and make serious issues look more like the work of an end of world death cult. Stop it!

  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 44,192
    It's only the 6th January but a strong candidate for most dickish thing of the year.

    https://twitter.com/MrRJHolland/status/1213951341237800960?s=20
  • NorthernPowerhouseNorthernPowerhouse Posts: 557
    viewcode said:

    NorthernPowerhouse said:

    viewcode said:

    rottenborough said:

    kle4 said:

    Alistair said:

    Toby with his finger on the fucking pulse here and no mistake

    https://twitter.com/toadmeister/status/1213436838985289730?s=19

    Because we're out but not yet determined by how much, hence transition as others speculate. There'll probably be lots like this to please the Farages of the world.
    As I understand it, this is already UK law. So needs a new law to undo the implementation of the Directive.

    Can the Toad explain why he thinks it is not a good policy?
    He writes for the Spectator. "Thought" is not necessarily part of the process.
    Seriously? The spectator is first rate comment, with a broad range, but from the right. A right version of the new statesman but not shit, and actually has paying customers.
    Deadly seriously. See previous posts.

    I have this thing against collections of spoilt-brat overfunded underpunched commentariat spouting off whatever groupthink nostrums inhabit their vapid heads at any given moment. Whether it's the Guardian, or the Spectator, or whatever trust-fund care home for upper-middle-class drug-ridden drunken drooling unemployables who can slap a keyboard randomly long enough to produce enough onanistic paragraphs to print. I don't read the New Statesman but I am happy to accept your assertion that it is also shit, and for the same reasons.

    I will however make an exception for James Forsyth (who is useful) and its graphic design (genuinely - its graphs are clear and I try to copy them). No doubt there are other good writers for it but they don't spring to mind. If I want well-written copy I'll come here, not there.

    The podcasts are good also.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 32,685
    TheGreenMachine said:

    Who's everyone's favourite UK politician, one male and one female from each party?

    Cons. Christopher Chope, Andrea Jenkyns
    Lab. Jeremy Corbyn, Diane Abbott
  • TheGreenMachineTheGreenMachine Posts: 1,097
    Mexicanpete said:

    TheGreenMachine said:

    Who's everyone's favourite UK politician, one male and one female from each party?

    Cons. Christopher Chope, Andrea Jenkyns
    Lab. Jeremy Corbyn, Diane Abbott
    Cheers, good stuff.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 32,685
    Theuniondivvie said:

    It's only the 6th January but a strong candidate for most dickish thing of the year.

    https://twitter.com/MrRJHolland/status/1213951341237800960?s=20

    If the wannabe white supremacist terrorist cap fits...
  • TheGreenMachineTheGreenMachine Posts: 1,097
    Rusty Guns.
  • Gabs3Gabs3 Posts: 836
    Mexicanpete said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    It's only the 6th January but a strong candidate for most dickish thing of the year.

    https://twitter.com/MrRJHolland/status/1213951341237800960?s=20

    If the wannabe white supremacist terrorist cap fits...
    He is currently in second among Republicans as the preferred candidate for 2024. Sideshow Bob said it right... Republicans deep down want to have their taxes lowered, criminals brutalized and to be ruled by a King.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 25,084
    Theuniondivvie said:

    It's only the 6th January but a strong candidate for most dickish thing of the year.

    https://twitter.com/MrRJHolland/status/1213951341237800960?s=20

    I think it's a customised Daniel Defense MK18 pistol, with added not-racist-honest insignia

    h ttps://danieldefense.com/mk18-pistol-02-088-01202.html
    h ttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9DgSqzovX6c
    h ttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VKTYcvbgR9w
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 32,685
    TheGreenMachine said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    TheGreenMachine said:

    Who's everyone's favourite UK politician, one male and one female from each party?

    Cons. Christopher Chope, Andrea Jenkyns
    Lab. Jeremy Corbyn, Diane Abbott
    Cheers, good stuff.
    I reinterpreted your initial question, to favourite unpleasantly bonkers MPs for each party. As for Chope it was a toss up between him, Bridgen, Bone, Davies, or Francois. Andrea Jenkyns was of course an absolute slam-dunk as were Jez and Di.
  • MontySkewMontySkew Posts: 3
    YouGov/QMUL still haven't published all the results from their Christmas poll of Labour members.

    As well as the questions on 7 potential candidates for the leadership, they asked all the same questions about 4 potential candidates for the deputy leadership (Barry Gardiner, Angela Rayner, Dawn Butler and Rosena Allin-Khan). There were also a load of questions about the relative importance of various criteria for choosing the leader (electability v ideology, etc).

    It took me half an hour to complete the survey, and that was 2 weeks ago - so now I'm impatient to see the results. Can anyone induce YouGov to spit them out?
  • Gabs3Gabs3 Posts: 836
    Pulpstar said:

    Starmer accepts Brexit.

    https://eutoday.net/news/politics/2020/brexit-election-blew-away-the-argument-for-a-second-referendum-says-keir-starmer?fbclid=IwAR1yVtfuWfm7RhubPIMU7JCahNCVO0ry2f-LmsE5BS-TAAbeopwWr0GqBo8

    Doesn't rule out Rejoin mind.

    The UK has the biggest pro-EU movement in the continent right now. Let us see whether Labour or the Lib Dems will grab it with a clear Rejoin message.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 32,685
    Gabs3 said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    It's only the 6th January but a strong candidate for most dickish thing of the year.

    https://twitter.com/MrRJHolland/status/1213951341237800960?s=20

    If the wannabe white supremacist terrorist cap fits...
    He is currently in second among Republicans as the preferred candidate for 2024. Sideshow Bob said it right... Republicans deep down want to have their taxes lowered, criminals brutalized and to be ruled by a King.
    At Don Snrs. present rate of aggression and instability, there will nothing left for Don Jnr. to rule by 2024.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 32,685
    Gabs3 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Starmer accepts Brexit.

    https://eutoday.net/news/politics/2020/brexit-election-blew-away-the-argument-for-a-second-referendum-says-keir-starmer?fbclid=IwAR1yVtfuWfm7RhubPIMU7JCahNCVO0ry2f-LmsE5BS-TAAbeopwWr0GqBo8

    Doesn't rule out Rejoin mind.

    The UK has the biggest pro-EU movement in the continent right now. Let us see whether Labour or the Lib Dems will grab it with a clear Rejoin message.
    We have to leave and fail before we even consider rejoining. Boris has got some major national retail therapy on the cards to soften the blow, so it may take a while before the tide turns.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 25,084
    Anyhoo, something cheerful for y'all before I go to bed

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=app3fAJE8Xc
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,040
    Morning. I still don't see how the two favourites would by some margin be the oldest people ever elected to the office of President.

    Sanders would be 79 at inauguration, Biden or Bloomberg 78. Trump, the young whippersnapper, would only be 74.

    At the other extreme, Buttigeig and Gabbard, are children of the 1980s and therefore far too inexperienced, following the well-known principle that they're younger than I am!

    https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/politics/elections/2019/05/03/2020-candidates-ages/3643967002/

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,308
    Sandpit said:

    Morning. I still don't see how the two favourites would by some margin be the oldest people ever elected to the office of President.

    Sanders would be 79 at inauguration, Biden or Bloomberg 78. Trump, the young whippersnapper, would only be 74.

    At the other extreme, Buttigeig and Gabbard, are children of the 1980s and therefore far too inexperienced, following the well-known principle that they're younger than I am!

    https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/politics/elections/2019/05/03/2020-candidates-ages/3643967002/

    Bit difficult to get too wound up by the concept of gerontocracy when our own Head of State is 93....

    Although, to put it in context, Boris could serve 6 terms of four years - and still only be the same age as Sanders at inauguration.

    Hmmm. You're selling me on the idea!
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453
    I really don't think Trump knows what he has got himself into bu attacking Iran.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,714
    viewcode said:

    Pulpstar said:

    rottenborough said:

    https://twitter.com/darrenpjones/status/1213827561983225856

    I know the fires are bad but are the fires quite THAT bad ?
    If you are asking "does this image indicate the cumulative damage caused by the fires", then the answer is "yes".

    If you are asking "is this a photograph of an event at a single moment" then the answer is "no"

    The image is a synthetic image meant to illustrate the fires recorded by NASA’s FIRMS (Satellite data regarding fires) between 2019-12-05 and 2020-01-05. It is not a photograph and the fires are not all burning at once. See https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/australia-fires-iss-image/
    So that is effectively 1 month of fires? Wow. The truth is bad enough.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,714
    I find it more than slightly bewildering that Sanders is allowed to once again mess up the candidature of a party that he is not even in. Biden looks nailed on to me which means that my bet on Trump being re-elected looks good. Hopefully the world will remain around long enough to spend the winnings. A round in the pub will probably suffice so I am hopeful.

    If Biden does win there must be a significant chance of a health issue between his nomination and the election. Who he chooses for his VP will be way more than usually important. Someone 30 years younger looks sensible. Would they then step up to the plate as the candidate or would the Democrats have another Convention?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 44,192
    nunu2 said:

    I really don't think Trump knows what he has got himself into bu attacking Iran.

    A general lesson to be learned is that if you're an opposition group in a repressive country (see also Venezuela), you don't want Trump and his goons sticking their oars in.

    https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1213956785951907840?s=20
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,714
    Theuniondivvie said:

    nunu2 said:

    I really don't think Trump knows what he has got himself into bu attacking Iran.

    A general lesson to be learned is that if you're an opposition group in a repressive country (see also Venezuela), you don't want Trump and his goons sticking their oars in.

    https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1213956785951907840?s=20
    See also the Kurds and anyone else stupid enough to rely on this lunatic.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,704
    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Nunu, like the Syrian withdrawal, he appears to think precisely in terms the move by itself, without any understanding of the wider situation and potential (including probable) consequences.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,631
    When is @HYUFD going to come along to excuse everything Trump is doing because a poll says he might beat Sanders?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,993
    MarqueeMark said:

    Sandpit said:

    Morning. I still don't see how the two favourites would by some margin be the oldest people ever elected to the office of President.

    Sanders would be 79 at inauguration, Biden or Bloomberg 78. Trump, the young whippersnapper, would only be 74.

    At the other extreme, Buttigeig and Gabbard, are children of the 1980s and therefore far too inexperienced, following the well-known principle that they're younger than I am!

    https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/politics/elections/2019/05/03/2020-candidates-ages/3643967002/

    Bit difficult to get too wound up by the concept of gerontocracy when our own Head of State is 93....
    That hardly tracks when our head of state is ceremonial whilst theirs is also head of government.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 7,081
    Gallowgate said:

    When is @HYUFD going to come along to excuse everything Trump is doing because a poll says he might beat Sanders?

    FFS its only 7.30 am .. do you really need to start baiting this early.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,631
    edited January 2020
    squareroot2 said:

    Gallowgate said:

    When is @HYUFD going to come along to excuse everything Trump is doing because a poll says he might beat Sanders?

    FFS its only 7.30 am .. do you really need to start baiting this early.
    I’m not baiting. I’m scared of the direction 2020 is going in because of idiots who are prepared to defend the undefendable because it’s “their team”.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 7,081
    Gallowgate said:

    squareroot2 said:

    Gallowgate said:

    When is @HYUFD going to come along to excuse everything Trump is doing because a poll says he might beat Sanders?

    FFS its only 7.30 am .. do you really need to start baiting this early.
    I’m not baiting. I’m scared of the direction 2020 is going in because of idiots who are prepared to defend the undefendable because it’s “their team”.
    Well why don't you wait until HYUFD says something before you answer something that he hasn't said.. (yet)
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 44,192
    edited January 2020
    Gallowgate said:

    squareroot2 said:

    Gallowgate said:

    When is @HYUFD going to come along to excuse everything Trump is doing because a poll says he might beat Sanders?

    FFS its only 7.30 am .. do you really need to start baiting this early.
    I’m not baiting. I’m scared of the direction 2020 is going in because of idiots who are prepared to defend the undefendable because it’s “their team”.
    image
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 78,881
    MarqueeMark said:

    Sandpit said:

    Morning. I still don't see how the two favourites would by some margin be the oldest people ever elected to the office of President.

    Sanders would be 79 at inauguration, Biden or Bloomberg 78. Trump, the young whippersnapper, would only be 74.

    At the other extreme, Buttigeig and Gabbard, are children of the 1980s and therefore far too inexperienced, following the well-known principle that they're younger than I am!

    https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/politics/elections/2019/05/03/2020-candidates-ages/3643967002/

    Bit difficult to get too wound up by the concept of gerontocracy when our own Head of State is 93....
    The monarch in the White House gets to kill people when he has a fit of pique.

    Ours... doesn’t.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,601
    Nigelb said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Sandpit said:

    Morning. I still don't see how the two favourites would by some margin be the oldest people ever elected to the office of President.

    Sanders would be 79 at inauguration, Biden or Bloomberg 78. Trump, the young whippersnapper, would only be 74.

    At the other extreme, Buttigeig and Gabbard, are children of the 1980s and therefore far too inexperienced, following the well-known principle that they're younger than I am!

    https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/politics/elections/2019/05/03/2020-candidates-ages/3643967002/

    Bit difficult to get too wound up by the concept of gerontocracy when our own Head of State is 93....
    The monarch in the White House gets to kill people when he has a fit of pique.

    Ours... doesn’t.
    Diana.
  • partypoliticalorphanpartypoliticalorphan Posts: 392
    Margin of error - 5.3% in the New Hampshire poll and little better in Iowa. Could be almost anyone's on those figures. I made money on the early States in 2016 but sticking with the Democrat Nomination contest currently.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 78,881
    Dura_Ace said:

    Nigelb said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Sandpit said:

    Morning. I still don't see how the two favourites would by some margin be the oldest people ever elected to the office of President.

    Sanders would be 79 at inauguration, Biden or Bloomberg 78. Trump, the young whippersnapper, would only be 74.

    At the other extreme, Buttigeig and Gabbard, are children of the 1980s and therefore far too inexperienced, following the well-known principle that they're younger than I am!

    https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/politics/elections/2019/05/03/2020-candidates-ages/3643967002/

    Bit difficult to get too wound up by the concept of gerontocracy when our own Head of State is 93....
    The monarch in the White House gets to kill people when he has a fit of pique.

    Ours... doesn’t.
    Diana.
    LOL.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Warren is not completely out of it on those numbers. What we cannot be sure of is whether voters really are changing their minds every few days or if American pollsters are just not very good.

    There was a good vox pop from Iowa yesterday

    Someone liked Biden because he had good contacts overseas and Sanders because he had passion

    If this becomes experience vs time for change that’s got to favour those two
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 78,881
    Gabs3 said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    It's only the 6th January but a strong candidate for most dickish thing of the year.

    https://twitter.com/MrRJHolland/status/1213951341237800960?s=20

    If the wannabe white supremacist terrorist cap fits...
    He is currently in second among Republicans as the preferred candidate for 2024. Sideshow Bob said it right... Republicans deep down want to have their taxes lowered, criminals brutalized and to be ruled by a King.
    It’s more the American veneration of mobsters.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    TheGreenMachine said:

    Who's everyone's favourite UK politician, one male and one female from each party?

    Wilberforce and Thatcher

    Atlee and Castle

    Gladstone and umm...

    They don’t make em like they used to
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    An excellent Times Red Box article from Lisa Nandy this morning indicating the depth of her thinking and ability to think differently.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 46,001
    Anti-Biden piece here -

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jan/04/joe-biden-electable-trump-2020-election

    I'm confused. Who best beats the Monstrosity?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    viewcode said:

    NorthernPowerhouse said:

    viewcode said:

    rottenborough said:

    kle4 said:

    Alistair said:

    Toby with his finger on the fucking pulse here and no mistake

    https://twitter.com/toadmeister/status/1213436838985289730?s=19

    Because we're out but not yet determined by how much, hence transition as others speculate. There'll probably be lots like this to please the Farages of the world.
    As I understand it, this is already UK law. So needs a new law to undo the implementation of the Directive.

    Can the Toad explain why he thinks it is not a good policy?
    He writes for the Spectator. "Thought" is not necessarily part of the process.
    Seriously? The spectator is first rate comment, with a broad range, but from the right. A right version of the new statesman but not shit, and actually has paying customers.
    Deadly seriously. See previous posts.

    I have this thing against collections of spoilt-brat overfunded underpunched commentariat spouting off whatever groupthink nostrums inhabit their vapid heads at any given moment. Whether it's the Guardian, or the Spectator, or whatever trust-fund care home for upper-middle-class drug-ridden drunken drooling unemployables who can slap a keyboard randomly long enough to produce enough onanistic paragraphs to print. I don't read the New Statesman but I am happy to accept your assertion that it is also shit, and for the same reasons.

    I will however make an exception for James Forsyth (who is useful) and its graphic design (genuinely - its graphs are clear and I try to copy them). No doubt there are other good writers for it but they don't spring to mind. If I want well-written copy I'll come here, not there.

    I’ll add you to their mailing list then?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    rcs1000 said:

    rottenborough said:

    Finland to introduce four-day working week and SIX HOUR days under plans drawn up by 34-year-old prime minister Sanna Marin

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7854449/Finlands-new-Prime-Minister-Sanna-Marin-34-plans-introduce-four-day-working-week.html

    Because the plans to shorten the work week introduced by the French worked so well.
    Working all daylight hours* seems fair

    * for part of the year
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,706
    American polls appear to be lower-standard, partly because they often use really small samples - see e.g. Emerson with 325 Iowa voters and all the NH polls with about 500:

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/ia/iowa_democratic_presidential_caucus-6731.html

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/nh/new_hampshire_democratic_presidential_primary-6276.html

    That said, there seem to be two general trends:

    1. The IA and NH voters are gathering among the front-runners
    2. US voters don't care if their candidates are elderly.

    I'm torn personally - I think Sanders is much the most attractive candidate, but I also think that Trump would slaughter him.


  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,851
    matt said:

    An excellent Times Red Box article from Lisa Nandy this morning indicating the depth of her thinking and ability to think differently.

    ...but she is still a lightweight. Starmer is the only serious candidate that Labour have to offer at the moment who stands a chance, which is probably why they will not elect him.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,446
    Nigel_Foremain said:

    matt said:

    An excellent Times Red Box article from Lisa Nandy this morning indicating the depth of her thinking and ability to think differently.

    ...but she is still a lightweight. Starmer is the only serious candidate that Labour have to offer at the moment who stands a chance, which is probably why they will not elect him.
    On the Yougov Labour members poll they will elect him
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    Nigel_Foremain said:

    matt said:

    An excellent Times Red Box article from Lisa Nandy this morning indicating the depth of her thinking and ability to think differently.

    ...but she is still a lightweight. Starmer is the only serious candidate that Labour have to offer at the moment who stands a chance, which is probably why they will not elect him.
    Nonsense- when she says, “ No one would begrudge Mr Johnson a holiday, but given the magnitude of recent developments and the nebulous position of the UK on the international stage, the PM should by now have recalled parliament to set out what steps the government will take to protect the safety of our serving personnel, and have outlined what steps he is taking to try to defuse the mounting tensions between the US and Iran.”,

    one can only agree that recalling MPs to allow them to share their insight and intelligence on a subject where many (if not most) of them have a mastery of the subject is a natural and obvious step forward. Diplomacy is best served by sharing one’s thoughts widely rather than behind the curtain efforts.

  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,631
    edited January 2020
    I still haven’t had my Labour membership confirmed. Joined mid-December. Doesn’t bode well.

    Maybe my jewish sounding name threw some red flags.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,259
    So any sign of an Iranian retaliation yet? Think they're not sure what to do.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,446
    NickPalmer said:

    American polls appear to be lower-standard, partly because they often use really small samples - see e.g. Emerson with 325 Iowa voters and all the NH polls with about 500:

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/ia/iowa_democratic_presidential_caucus-6731.html

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/nh/new_hampshire_democratic_presidential_primary-6276.html

    That said, there seem to be two general trends:

    1. The IA and NH voters are gathering among the front-runners
    2. US voters don't care if their candidates are elderly.

    I'm torn personally - I think Sanders is much the most attractive candidate, but I also think that Trump would slaughter him.


    I doubt Trump would slaughter Sanders as much as Warren but he would be the most left wing Democratic nominee since McGovern who Nixon slaughtered
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,631
    MaxPB said:

    So any sign of an Iranian retaliation yet? Think they're not sure what to do.

    I read that any retaliation would happen after the funeral. The funeral has happened today I believe so maybe fireworks are now due?
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    Gallowgate said:

    I still haven’t had my Labour membership confirmed. Joined mid-December. Doesn’t bode well.

    Maybe my jewish sounding name threw some red flags.

    You should have put Rachel and claimed you are transitioning.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,259
    Gallowgate said:

    I still haven’t had my Labour membership confirmed. Joined mid-December. Doesn’t bode well.

    Maybe my jewish sounding name threw some red flags.

    I'm still amazed that newly joined members get to vote in a leadership election. Our year of purgatory for new members is a good way of combating entryism.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,446
    Gallowgate said:

    When is @HYUFD going to come along to excuse everything Trump is doing because a poll says he might beat Sanders?

    I am not American but Americans elected Trump and may well re elect him, I suggest you direct your comments at Americans who actually have a vote next November unlike me
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 10,080
    rcs1000 said:

    rottenborough said:

    https://twitter.com/darrenpjones/status/1213827561983225856

    What an idiot.

    That's not our planet that a photo of Australia with some fire superimposed on it.
    Yes, it's terrible that an MP should post a fake photo, when a ten second check on Snopes can show it to be false.
    However Australia is on our planet and there are real photos from space.
    https://metro.co.uk/2020/01/05/devastating-extent-australias-bushfires-seen-space-12003553/
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,259
    Gallowgate said:

    MaxPB said:

    So any sign of an Iranian retaliation yet? Think they're not sure what to do.

    I read that any retaliation would happen after the funeral. The funeral has happened today I believe so maybe fireworks are now due?
    Hmm, we'll see. I just don't think they have the cojones tbh, especially now that their master strategist who would draw up any retaliation plan is dead.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,851
    matt said:

    Nigel_Foremain said:

    matt said:

    An excellent Times Red Box article from Lisa Nandy this morning indicating the depth of her thinking and ability to think differently.

    ...but she is still a lightweight. Starmer is the only serious candidate that Labour have to offer at the moment who stands a chance, which is probably why they will not elect him.
    Nonsense- when she says, “ No one would begrudge Mr Johnson a holiday, but given the magnitude of recent developments and the nebulous position of the UK on the international stage, the PM should by now have recalled parliament to set out what steps the government will take to protect the safety of our serving personnel, and have outlined what steps he is taking to try to defuse the mounting tensions between the US and Iran.”,

    one can only agree that recalling MPs to allow them to share their insight and intelligence on a subject where many (if not most) of them have a mastery of the subject is a natural and obvious step forward. Diplomacy is best served by sharing one’s thoughts widely rather than behind the curtain efforts.

    She still comes across as a lightweight. Very nice, but, like Jo Swinson, a lightweight and not PM material. Of the potential women candidates there is only Emily Thornberry and Yvette Cooper who have gravitas for the role, neither of whom appear to stand a chance.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,704
    Mr. Max, they may well have contingency plans.

    Saw a tiny bit of news yesterday on the nuclear programme going full steam ahead, but on the militant front I imagine lots of asymmetrical warfare's on the way, if not more terrorism.

    They won't attack the US directly. Too big a risk.
This discussion has been closed.